BROKEN SETUP! GAME OVER! 651

[iLord]

/confirm.

Excite, this is my first game on MS.

[iLord]

I'm still thinking about the set-up.

No one should reveal their results, because we can PM.

Crazy, why are you not the godfather?

[iLord]

EBWODP:

Unless, of course, they got a result that the person they targetted is not their ally.

Then they should claim so that we can all sense motive one of them.

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I also realized that I misread the rules, and realized that the godfather does not know who he is. I thought we choose someone to kill if they (by they, I mean the target) was godfather.

Still, Crazy is in no way confirmed not the godfather.

I don't like how he had to try and prove in thread that he wasn't godfather, especially since he would know if he was him.

FOS: Crazy

[iLord]

Then why did you feel the need to say it?

[iLord]

Still, the townie's have the majority, and it's always beneficial to clear that you are not the godfather.

[iLord]

I'm still trying to understand this set-up. Have there been Sense Motive games on mafiascum before? Or are we the lab rats for it? I can already tell that this is going to take a crazy sort of logic, and it'd be nice if we had something to go on as we figure out how it works.

At least post your speculation.

We're all trying to understand the set-up.

I'm going to Vote:Skitzer for not checking in or saying anything yet.

Comment on Crazy.

So hang on, the only thing we can do right now is say if the person we sensed wasn't on our team, if we do this we are still non the wiser as to who is scum and who isn't as not everyone will have found someone on the other team.

We will not know who is scum or not.

BUT, we can sense on of the people at night and figure out who we need dead.

And then the person that's not our ally will get lynched.

Perfectly logcial.

However, we can start organising ourselves into teams. We can pm each other at any point during the game, night or day. The idea is (i assume) that if your sense target is on the same team as you, you can pm to tell them this, and so start a network of players within your team.

Yep, I've already started contacting my ally.

Everybody should start contacting their ally. If they did not find an ally, they should claim so immediately.

But no, at this stage we can't tell if we're scum or not yet - although one player will be one step closer to figuring out he's the godfather, following Voodo's death.

Yes, so we should hunt godfather.

I'm sorry, but do you need to have a reason for everything you say in your first post? Obviously I knew it couldn't clear me, why would I think it would?

Yes. You need to be accountable for the content of every single one of your posts.

You say that you obviously knew it wouldn't clear you. Yet you still said it.

I was actually reading town on you despite your scummy content, but this post is horribly scummy.

Vote: Crazy

Note that in this game, your claim consists of your targets. So, if Crazy were to be pressured to claim, he would claim his ally. If he can put up an ally, then we'll take him as semi-comfirmed, since if they were both scum, we'd figure it out by someone sense motiveing him or his partner.

I'm fine with pressuring Crazy to claim. The only conscious scum we probably have is the godfather, and Crazy has exibited several "godfather" tells.

[iLord]

EBWODP:

Quote tags don't work?

Do you need quotations on this site?

@Mod: Can you edit in the quotes? Thanks loads!

[iLord]

Umm... I was just speculating, since at the beginning my identity is as secret to me as everyone else's. Seriously, I have no idea how this was blown up to this proportion.

But not if you are the godfather - you have a pretty good idea whether or not you are the godfather.

The second line reads like flailing scum.

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Another note on game theory: It is highly unlikely that we will lynch Crazy, as this game has no reveal on death. Most likely, in this game, we will not lynch very often at all. That gives us several nights to put together information and trap the scum.

Most likely, most of us will sense motive him. That way, we can figure out our alignments quickly.

Also, anyone who sense motived Crazy should step up.

[iLord]

You need "x" around the name of the person you're quoting.

Yeah, I got it.

By the way, I don't think I said whatever you quoted.

[iLord]

adfasfd

The more nights, the more information. As there are more townies then scum, as time goes on the growing information will outnumber the adverse affect of a nightkill - because a nk always does the same thing, while information is more and more useful as time goes on.

I believe the math that says a random lynch is better than a no lynch is pertinent here, so I'll go ahead and vote:Crazy. If a no-lynch is actually effective in this situation, please post the relevant math and I'll switch my vote to a no-lynch. But, really, I'd like more information before I speculate. I'm going to play it townie, as I'm more likely to be a townie then scum (4/5 chance townie, 1/5 chance goon) but I'd like to be sure before I finish figuring this all out. A second night could do that.

I didn't do any math, but lynching will give us zero information. It will be in no way beneficial to lynch as opposed to Sense Motiveing, which will give the alignment of the target.

I'm really not feeling this wagon on Crazy I have reason to believe that he is town and considering the fact that there are at most three scum on this wagon I suggest that town please avoid this wagon. I have reason to believe that Skitzer is against the town and I feel that if we lynch him we will better know where we stand. If Skitzer is scum then me and Crazy are cleared while if he falls town then the town will be close to a quick win. I'm taking a chance by siding with Crazy this early, but I really feel that from I've read that we are town and this would make Skitzer scum.

Okay, so you got ally on Crazy and enemy on Skitzer, at least.

Having re-read the rules (), this looks more or less correct to me. The Godfather won't be acting deliberately scummy, which makes picking him out difficult on the first day. Random lynch is possibly the only way to go.

No, it's not.

No lynching is the way to go.

It gives us more nights.

Just wanted to make this clear, since it's not explicitly stated in the rules (sorry! will fix): you must lynch every day. Sorry for not making that clear in the ruleset from the beginning >.<

NOOO!

There goes my brilliant plan.

I voted Crazy, mod. And since no lynch is not an option, and there's no information for anyone to go on, any bickering will just help scum here. Sorry, Crazy, but you got left in the random lurch.

You're too eager. We're going to lynch someone that everyone agrees to. And since Jshark has pointed out that he Sensed Motived Crazy as town, we leave both of them alone.

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Jshark, Porkens, and Crazy.

You three have a chain, no?

Then you three are most likely all confirmed town. Skitzer is most likely scum then.

Unvote, Vote Skitzer.

[iLord]

aadsfas

The bloody hell? 'As opposed to?' It's not "Do you want to lynch or sense?". It's "lynch, then we can sense".

No, lynch then sense doesn't work because we still can't figure out the alignment of the lynched.

And I kind of figured there was a chain - "I think Crazy is town and skitzer is scum", classy. But honestly I'm leaning towards them being instead a scum chain, simply because, instead of revealing the chain, you proceeded to - I don't even know what you did. Why would people who think they are a townie chain proceed to deny it and instead pull stuff like this

That's just horribly bad logic.

If they're scum, we basically win.

I am sure that many players will be sense motiving someone on the chain to figure out their alignment.

And if we end up with a bunch of "not allied," then we know we've caught scum.

Like I said, with so little to go on I advocate a random lynch to get to the second night, when the townie can actually CONFIRM chains and such. I picked Crazy because he had the wagon...and...ain't it funny that this chain springs up only when Crazy's in danger? When chains were requested, we got the stupid story I posted above, but when Crazy is in danger, whoa, lookit the nice chain. Also, Jshark was "outed" not by himself, but by Crazy. I don't think we should lynch someone because a couple of people swear he's scum. I think we should, Day 1, lynch randomly so the playerbase is more informed on Day 2 and we don't bicker when there's no information in play. These scummy methods of defense only solidify my idea that Crazy was a happy fluke - though I suppose people picked him because of his " I KNOW I'M NOT GODFATHER LOLZ" post. Huh. Kind've a coincidence, don't you think?

See above.

I'm willing to take them as town for now. If they're all scum, we'll know soon enough.

I too sensed Skitzer, and he was not on my team. Good job of revealing your chain there, guys. Unvote, vote:skitzer.

Why didn't you reveal this earlier?

You're missing the point, Jshark. What I'm saying is that scum can't "accidentally" reveal themselves, because the scum don't know they're scum! So all we're doing is trying to find tells in a game where they don't exist - ergo, right now. How can I be defensive? Sure, maybe I'm scum - I wouldn't know. (And of course, the GF can't even be sure they are the GF.) We are not learning a lot, what we're doing is getting false "data" the scum can refer to later and dress up fake scum when it was a townie who didn't even know their role. This kind of system can't teach you anything, but it does give you data that you can make up the reasons for. That is, it'll make you think you know things when you don't. Just realize how little information is in the system right now.

The godfather most likely has a very good idea of who he is, but regardless your point of the lack of behavior tells is generally true.

However, we have a wealth of information here. We have almost the equivilent of 11 cop investigations because scum claiming their investigations will be easily caught, especially if they think they're town.

So, sure. unvote, vote:skitzer. We need to get to night so the scum know their scum and we actually have a chance of finding tells. This is a paradoxical situation of the longer the day, the WORSE it is for town.

Long days are never worse for the town.

We can always ignore the irrelevant information.

And there is relevant information.

For example, if AAA claims that he got allied with the dead BBB, we can look back to see how they treated each other. If AAA attacked BBB, then we can most likely know that AAA is lying.

I might as well come out with mine now; I also sensed skitzer on the first night, and got the same result you guys did. That's what, 4 instances of skitzer being on the opposing team now? That confirms him as scum, as far as I'm aware. (For posterity, my kill target was Bogre)

I count 6 votes on Skitzer at the moment. That means he's been lynched anyway.

Why didn't you claim earlier?

[iLord]

iLord, why haven't YOU claimed your connections yet?

Because I got an allied connection.

There's no point to claim it when you can just PM the player.

[iLord]

Reall? I think there is value to setting down the connections in public record here in the main thread. What if you get NK'd and that information dies with you? It seems to me that only those who think they could be scum would want to keep their connections a secret.

Could you explain to me why it's pointless?

Because the information will not be lost - the other person whom I targeted will know my information.

[iLord]

asdfasdf

Well, I thought my chances of finding scum as with me being town was very slim. I figured that probablity would be on the side of skitzer being town with me being scum, so I chose not to reveal in case I was scum. But since all these others claimed to have gotten the same results, I must be town, along with the rest of them.

No, you got your math wrong. It's most likely that you're town, with Skitzer as scum.

But fair point about maybe being scum.

But unless you post your connections, how can we verify the results? If you tell us now, one of us in the confirmed chain can SM you or your partner, and it's all good in the hood. Otherwise; someone we haven't sensed might pop up in two days and say "oh hey no guys I'm cool, iLord cleared me days ago."

Now, I'm not pretending like I don't know your connection, because you PM'd me, and I've relayed that to my associates, but

I'm still confused about why you wouldn't want it out in the open.

@The bolded part:

I get your point.

There's little downfall to relay such information, because unlike a normal mafia game, the scum have almost no way to take advantage of the information.

Well, you already half claimed it, but I targeted Pork, and got allied with me.

Because which team is which isn't specified - i only knew Skitzer wasn't on my side. So if somebody else had sensed skitzer and found him to be town, i'd have just unwittingly outed myself as a mafia player.
Now that we've had so many different players all claiming Skitzer is not on their team, it's safer for me to claim now; more players are confirming Skitzer is their enemy than there are mafia players in this game.

Correct answer.

What's more interesting here are that some players haven't claimed their sense targets yet - like you, iLord.

Claimed above.

I was overevaluating the pitfalls of claiming our sense targets, and underevaluating the the lack of information the scum have.

[iLord]

Kabenon and Verbal make valid points, I guess. When you sense someone and they're not on your side, I think that means there's a 50% chance that you are scum.

No, if you do the math, there's a much larger chance that you're town. A 75% chance. Goes up to 81% if you know that your godfather target was not killed.

[iLord]

See, scum and town can both get an enemy investigation.

I did forget to factor in that it is more likely for scum to get an enemy investigation, though.

That changes things a bit, but the end result is the same:

The chance that you are town is 27/121, and the chance that you are scum is 18/121. So it's 60% chance that you are town.

Still, it's a sizeable enough chance that you are scum so that you might not want to claim.

[iLord]

@Kabe: You have to take into account the chances of you being town as well.

Scum have a higher chance of getting someone that is not allied.

And you naturally have a higher chance to be scum.

However, if your godfather target didn't die, then you know that you could only be two out of the 12, which gives you the 20% larger chance that you are town.

[iLord]

xyzzy, where art thou?

[iLord]

Vote iLord

What more is there to say - go SK!

[iLord]

I know Jshark is on my team, porkens was on the same team so vote ilord

I think this is scummy.

But then again, I think I'm scum, so what does what I say matter?

MWAHAHAHAHA!

[iLord]

[quote=”Crazy”] Vote: iLord

I sensed Hitogoroshi. He is not on my team.

So let's lynch iLord today, Hitogoroshi tomorrow, and then we win. [/quote]

I support this product.

[iLord]

Just make sure that you guys lynch kabenon007 after I'm dead.

[iLord]

Wait, I mean Hitigoroshi.

[iLord]

I know - it's like we found confirmed scum or something.

[iLord]

Why yes he did.

But even if I'm claiming a lot of information, there's no guarentee that any of it is true.

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I do think I'm going to take this time to gripe about how heavily weighted this set-up was against the scum. The scum don't have any advantages other than a nightkill, so this set-up would be functionally the same with 9 scum, 2 townies, and 1 vig, which sounds and is horribly broken.

A fairer set-up would've been 5 town, 1 vig, 5 mafia, 1 godfather, which shows how broken this was against me and kabenon007

[iLord]

And skitzer.

[iLord]

EBWOTP:

(Sorry guys)

Crap, I did it again. I don't know why I get Hitigoroshi and Kabennon007 confused.

[iLord]

Its a little bit off from Mafia.

To keep the set-up intact:

7 Town, 4 Mafia + 1 Godfather.

That should balance everything out.

[iLord]

I wouldn't really like it as the private conversation was part of the coolness in this game.

[iLord]

Yeah, Xyzzy, are you thinking of running another one?