BROKEN SETUP! GAME OVER! 651

[iLord]

Reall? I think there is value to setting down the connections in public record here in the main thread. What if you get NK'd and that information dies with you? It seems to me that only those who think they could be scum would want to keep their connections a secret.

Could you explain to me why it's pointless?

Because the information will not be lost - the other person whom I targeted will know my information.

[kabenon007]

I too sensed Skitzer, and he was not on my team. Good job of revealing your chain there, guys. Unvote, vote:skitzer.

to which iLord responded:

Why didn't you reveal this earlier?

Well, I thought my chances of finding scum as with me being town was very slim. I figured that probablity would be on the side of skitzer being town with me being scum, so I chose not to reveal in case I was scum. But since all these others claimed to have gotten the same results, I must be town, along with the rest of them.

[Porkens]

Reall? I think there is value to setting down the connections in public record here in the main thread. What if you get NK'd and that information dies with you? It seems to me that only those who think they could be scum would want to keep their connections a secret.

Could you explain to me why it's pointless?

Because the information will not be lost - the other person whom I targeted will know my information.

But unless you post your connections, how can we verify the results? If you tell us now, one of us in the confirmed chain can SM you or your partner, and it's all good in the hood. Otherwise; someone we haven't sensed might pop up in two days and say "oh hey no guys I'm cool, iLord cleared me days ago."

Now, I'm not pretending like I don't know your connection, because you PM'd me, and I've relayed that to my associates, but I'm still confused about why you wouldn't want it out in the open.

[Verbal]

Why didn't you claim earlier?

Because which team is which isn't specified - i only knew Skitzer wasn't on my side. So if somebody else had sensed skitzer and found him to be town, i'd have just unwittingly outed myself as a mafia player.
Now that we've had so many different players all claiming Skitzer is not on their team, it's safer for me to claim now; more players are confirming Skitzer is their enemy than there are mafia players in this game.

Also, Jshark's plan looked promising, in that his proposed target was Skitzer - someone I know that, whichever side I'm on, I want killed one way or another. I didn't need to claim at that point, and I could've bided my time until the next day.

What's more interesting here are that some players haven't claimed their sense targets yet - like you, iLord.

[iLord]

asdfasdf

Well, I thought my chances of finding scum as with me being town was very slim. I figured that probablity would be on the side of skitzer being town with me being scum, so I chose not to reveal in case I was scum. But since all these others claimed to have gotten the same results, I must be town, along with the rest of them.

No, you got your math wrong. It's most likely that you're town, with Skitzer as scum.

But fair point about maybe being scum.

But unless you post your connections, how can we verify the results? If you tell us now, one of us in the confirmed chain can SM you or your partner, and it's all good in the hood. Otherwise; someone we haven't sensed might pop up in two days and say "oh hey no guys I'm cool, iLord cleared me days ago."

Now, I'm not pretending like I don't know your connection, because you PM'd me, and I've relayed that to my associates, but

I'm still confused about why you wouldn't want it out in the open.

@The bolded part:

I get your point.

There's little downfall to relay such information, because unlike a normal mafia game, the scum have almost no way to take advantage of the information.

Well, you already half claimed it, but I targeted Pork, and got allied with me.

Because which team is which isn't specified - i only knew Skitzer wasn't on my side. So if somebody else had sensed skitzer and found him to be town, i'd have just unwittingly outed myself as a mafia player.
Now that we've had so many different players all claiming Skitzer is not on their team, it's safer for me to claim now; more players are confirming Skitzer is their enemy than there are mafia players in this game.

Correct answer.

What's more interesting here are that some players haven't claimed their sense targets yet - like you, iLord.

Claimed above.

I was overevaluating the pitfalls of claiming our sense targets, and underevaluating the the lack of information the scum have.

[Crazy]

Kabenon and Verbal make valid points, I guess. When you sense someone and they're not on your side, I think that means there's a 50% chance that you are scum.

[iLord]

Kabenon and Verbal make valid points, I guess. When you sense someone and they're not on your side, I think that means there's a 50% chance that you are scum.

No, if you do the math, there's a much larger chance that you're town. A 75% chance. Goes up to 81% if you know that your godfather target was not killed.

[Crazy]

This is like that Monty Hall problem thingy... so that's why I must not get it.

[iLord]

See, scum and town can both get an enemy investigation.

I did forget to factor in that it is more likely for scum to get an enemy investigation, though.

That changes things a bit, but the end result is the same:

The chance that you are town is 27/121, and the chance that you are scum is 18/121. So it's 60% chance that you are town.

Still, it's a sizeable enough chance that you are scum so that you might not want to claim.

[kabenon007]

Yes, but I wasn't referring to the odds of me being town vs. scum. I saw that skitzer was not on my team. That meant ne of two things: I as town had found one scum, a three to eight chance, or me as scum finding a townie, a nine to two chance. Using that math, I figured that since we were on opposite teams and I had found one opposite team member, I figured it was more likely I was scum than town, if only for the fact that it is easier to find others of opposite team if you are scum.

[Porkens]

O wonderful and great mod; we need a night!

[iLord]

@Kabe: You have to take into account the chances of you being town as well.

Scum have a higher chance of getting someone that is not allied.

And you naturally have a higher chance to be scum.

However, if your godfather target didn't die, then you know that you could only be two out of the 12, which gives you the 20% larger chance that you are town.

[Verbal]

Just a note here while we're waiting for night 1, I will be away from Thursday 21st - Tuesday 26th, with no internet access. Luckily, we probably won't be in day during that time so it shouldn't impact play.

[skitzer]

I'm dead, aren't I?

Oh well. I sensed Crazy, they was on my team. I targetted Musher333 for kill.

[Crazy]

Oh well. I sensed Crazy, they was on my team.

That doesn't make any sense in any situation. Unless if I'm bussing you, but I wouldn't do that in a no-reveal game.

[iLord]

xyzzy, where art thou?

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

Truly Sorry, my internet is cut off. I have to read up quick, by Friday I hope to have this game fully read and will be available to respond. On average, I only expect to be able to read and/or post M,W,F. That is the only days I have scheduled access to the internet. I will plan to keep up.

At this moment, I have not read the game enough to comment.

[xyzzy]

votecount 1-2

skitzer: Jshark, Crazy, Porkens, iLord, kabenon007, hitogoroshi

Note voting:skitzer, Shepherd_of_Wolves, Verbal, Bogre, Musher333

Sorry for the long absence. I've been in the middle of moving, and my internet access hasn't been good because of it.

Aaaaanyway, skitzer has 6 votes on him. He be dead.

Night one is now.

[xyzzy]

It's day two now.

Verbal is dead.

Also, a Bogre replacement is needed; will begin searching out.

[Porkens]

Good morning!

We should tell our reports.

iLord is not on the same team as I.

vote: iLord

[iLord]

Vote iLord

What more is there to say - go SK!

[hitogoroshi]

What.

what.

whaaaaaaaaaat. is this.

I...don't know what I'm even supposed to think about this. It seem like a retarded scum play. But the logistics of this are still a bit hard to understand, so I'm not sure.

What I do know is I do NOT trust my choices in the public thread. But anyone who's sensed me, feel free to PM.

[Musher333]

Hitogoroshi is not on the same team as you.

[Musher333]

I know Jshark is on my team, porkens was on the same team so vote

ilord

[iLord]

I know Jshark is on my team, porkens was on the same team so vote ilord

I think this is scummy.

But then again, I think I'm scum, so what does what I say matter?

MWAHAHAHAHA!