Newbie 626 - Completed Successfully (dependent on town POV)

[New Coldness]

Ok, NC. There are now 7 players in this game, having lost 2 townies on D1 and N1. We have to lynch a scum today or tomorrow it's LyLo. Like I said, if I am not the doctor and the doctor does exist, then it all really depend on whether the doctor believe that I am scum or town pulling this gambit.

And because you just replaced in, it's essentially a coinflip. Or not, considering the rather scummy claim you made after replacing in.

NC, you mentioned that this gambit could possibly give the scum too much info, but this game can last a maximum of 4 days assuming we lynch scum today, lynch town tomorrow, and LyLo on Day 4. I do not see how even if the mafia does get information, it helps them in anyway. If anyone try to rolefish EVER, I'll personally nail their behinds and the scums have to choose a NK regardless of which setup it is in hopes of killing the one most likely to be a power-role (again, REGARDLESS of whether power roles exist, they have to try anyways) so IMHO, mafia doesn't benefit from this gambit at all.

If the Mafia has a roleblocker, then the existence of a Doc will reveal the existence of a Cop to them and no one else (except the Cop, if there is one). If the Mafia doesn't have a roleblocker, then the existence of a Doc will reveal that there

isn't

a Cop (to the Mafia and no one else), and a Mafioso will be able to roleclaim Cop with no risk of a counterclaim. In LyLo, that's deadly.

In addition, keep in mind that this is a SOFT claim, which means that just because I claimed* to be a doctor doesn't mean that it necessarily give the mafia ANY new info. if anything, it will drive them crazy and in a circle of WIFOM (praying here that one of the ICs isn't scum, let scums be newbies please!)

It screws the town harder. If a Doc gets killed off, we can't LAL lynch you without taking a serious risk. The only way to clear you without losing would be to follow a Cop, if we have one. Normally, townies are advised not to lie so that LAL can be an effective scumhunting tool. You've taken that tool away from us. Confusion is a tool of the Mafia. It does NOT help the town. And no matter how "confused" the Mafia may be before they make their decision, they're still going to turn in their nightkill. They may just think slightly harder before they turn it in. This gambit will cost the Mafia NOTHING.

The last setup that I tried this in was different than this one so I'll have to wait to see how it pans out. However, town will be screwed regardless of my role if I am to be lynched. This is because I know I am pro-town, I can say that much and my lynch today means LyLo tomorrow for town no matter what.

Here's the thing: WE DON'T KNOW IF YOU'RE TOWN. If you are, it's a horrible idea to lynch you. If you aren't, it's a horrible idea not to... but we still

can't

, despite the LAL convention, which would normally govern this situation.

The reason why a Doctor shouldn't counterclaim me is because if I am not a doctor and I get lynched as a townie, there exists the possibility of the doctor (existent or not) surviving to D3 whereas if the real Doctor does counterclaim somehow, he/she will be NKed for sure. The reason is that even if there are multiple Doctor counterclaims, all of them must be made by scums except possibly one since I don't think any townie in this game will be as adventurous as me (if I am a townie) to counterclaim with a fakeclaim as Doctor while being town.

And we can't LAL-lynch a scum claiming Doc because you didn't "exactly" claim it. Nor can we lynch you on LAL grounds, because you're straddling the line between Doc and Townie in your claim.

In fact, if we get 2 additional Doctor counterclaims, it'll be a great thing because at least 1 of them will be made by scum (if not both since the other 1 might be the real one).

This is the sole benefit of this gambit, and it isn't even that great because it still involves surrendering LAL. A Doc getting cardflipped won't implicate you.

Thus by logic, I don't forsee any counterclaims today. The key aspect of the gambit is whether the real Doctor (if I am not it) have faith in me despite me lying.

See, normally we'd lynch you right now on LAL grounds. But no matter what happens, you can claim that you didn't actually lie. LAL exists

specifically

to prevent this from happening. I find your attempt to circumvent LAL scummy as hell. But you claimed Doc, so I can't, in good faith, vote to lynch you. I can only hope that you're a townie who doesn't know what he's doing.

In fact, if we can waste at least 1 of the mafia's NK, we get one extra day and in a game which only last max 3/4 days, to get in another day will be optimal.

If the Mafia misses an NK tonight, there'll be six people alive tomorrow. Four town, two scum. If a townie gets lynched, that drops it to three town, two scum. The nightkill, if successful, will drop it to two town and two scum. That's endgame, scum victory.

So we'll be in half-LyLo tomorrow if we lynch a townie today and the scum miss an NK tonight. The town can then NoLynch, let the scum narrow the field from 4-2 to 3-2 on night 3, and pray that there's a Cop on the payroll. That's really not much better because we don't get an "extra day" because that day will just be a foregone NoLynch. If there's a Cop, he'll get an extra investigation, but that's all the benefit we could possibly get. And only the scum will know whether or not there's actually a Cop. Now for the fun part: if the Mafia knows there's a Cop, they can tailor their play to that. They'll NK more aggressively. If they know there isn't one, then they'll claim Cop and there will be no one to counterclaim.

In other words,

we will be no better off with the Doc saving someone tonight than we would be with a successful townie NK

, unless we have a Cop and unless the Cop survives to the endgame. I don't foresee any sort of revealing discussion during a 4-2 day

See, the only reason I'm so concerned about the existence of a Doc giving the scum information about the existence of a Cop is because of the rather strange setup possibilities in this game. It isn't possible for the town to have both a Doc and a Cop without the scum having a roleblocker. I understand that that's probably for game balance purposes, but the combination of setup possibilities gives the scum a truckload of info that they normally wouldn't have because they know whether or not they have a roleblocker. If it were possible for the town to have both a Doc and a Cop without the Mafia having a roleblocker, then I'd tell the Doc to go nuts because his existence wouldn't say anything to the Mafia about the existence of a Cop.

Incidentally, the setup possibilities make a claimed Cop absolutely useless after he claims. If the scum have a roleblocker, then they know there's a Doc. They'll roleblock the Cop and keep NKing until they hit the Doc, then NK the Cop. If they don't have a roleblocker, then they know that they can just hit the Cop with no risk of Doc protection.

Of course, I'm assuming a townie lynch today, just because that seems to be how it always works out. And in any event, I am NOT calling for you to be lynched because I don't want to lynch a Doc. Not even a softclaimed Doc. But having you around with that semi-claim and us unable to lynch you on LAL grounds nevertheless makes you too much of a liability to have around later.

So if the rest of the town doesn't want to put you under the hammer and force you to make a hard claim, then I ask the Doc, if he's out there, not to protect Syz.

Syz, if you're the Doc or a townie, I really hope that you take this as a lesson and never run this kind of gambit ever again.

[Mispeled]

Mispeled, ever heard of WIFOM?

No, never.

(they can go for an NK on Syz tonight and possibly instantly know the setup)

I noticed the same thing, and I was really hoping that no one else would point it out in case the mafia hadn't figured it out.


I really think we should get off this discussion as soon as possible. Syzygy's basis for this was that he would cause the mafia to "waste" a NK. If they NK successfully and put us in LYLO, there was nothing wasted. At this point we're just talking ourselves in circles. Syzygy, in his last post, has essentially claimed townie, anyway.

[Syzygy]

Indigo Heron: hypothetical question, if you were scum, what will you do tonight assuming I survive the night? What is you position on my claim right now?

[neko2086]

my opinion is that you are trying to get information from me. which im not going to give.

This was one of ML's first comments, and it was the first thing that made me feel he could be a power-role. What else could he have meant by "information"?

think about it as a game of hide n seek
im going to hide in a place so obvious nobody would check.

This, along with his general style of play, added to the feeling of him being doc, but, like his playstyle, was also just terribly WIFOMy.

I still feel most inclined to believe his claim, but I'm going to read through these recent posts (too tired to do anything but skim them for now, sorry) and consider NC's arguments.

I wish I knew whose alt syz is... but if he's a MOS-follower, I probably wouldn't put it past him to make such a fakeclaim. Anyway, more later.

[neko2086]

Sorry, still randomly skimming this, will read more thoroughly tomorrow, but I have to ask...

I ask the Doc, if he's out there, not to protect Syz.

If syz is not the doc, and if there is a doc, the doc would know syz is fakeclaiming, obviously, so, why on earth would a doc protect a fakeclaimer?

Syz, if you're the Doc or a townie, I really hope that you take this as a lesson and never run this kind of gambit ever again.

Agree heartily with this, especially if he's a vanilla. Newbies, take note--lying is bad mkay? Hopefully this isn't the case, though... Not sure yet.

[Indigo Heron]

Indigo Heron: hypothetical question, if you were scum, what will you do tonight assuming I survive the night? What is you position on my claim right now?

Well, if I was scum, that would depend on whether I was targeting you or not. I'm also not very sure about the context of the question, can you delve a little deeper into it?

I second New Coldness about the position on your claim. I don't want to lynch a soft-claimed doctor, but I will lynch a liar (if one or both of the scum have not been revealed by then, and if said lynching does not put us in an automatically losing situation). Whether you're a liar or not, we'll see soon enough. Really, it all depends on how the day goes, and who the scum assassinate.

What's an MOS-follower, neko?

[MeMe]

Vote Count

:

Indigo Heron

(1):

Syzygy

not voting

(6):

Amor, Freckles, Indigo Heron, Mispeled, neko2086, New Coldness

Four = lynch

[Syzygy]

Indigo Heron: hypothetical question, if you were scum, what will you do tonight assuming I survive the night? What is you position on my claim right now?

Well, if I was scum, that would depend on whether I was targeting you or not. I'm also not very sure about the context of the question, can you delve a little deeper into it?

I second New Coldness about the position on your claim. I don't want to lynch a soft-claimed doctor, but I will lynch a liar (if one or both of the scum have not been revealed by then, and if said lynching does not put us in an automatically losing situation). Whether you're a liar or not, we'll see soon enough. Really, it all depends on how the day goes, and who the scum assassinate.

What's an MOS-follower, neko?

nvm the other part, MoS is a player on this forum: Mastermind of Sin.

[New Coldness]

Sorry, still randomly skimming this, will read more thoroughly tomorrow, but I have to ask...

I ask the Doc, if he's out there, not to protect Syz.

If syz is not the doc, and if there is a doc, the doc would know syz is fakeclaiming, obviously, so, why on earth would a doc protect a fakeclaimer?

Syz has been calling for the doctor to do that. Basically, he softclaimed Doc, and he asked for the "real" Doc to protect him on the chance that the Mafia will target him and lose an NK. His stated purpose is to "confuse" the Mafia. Although, at the end of the day, I think that all his strategy will do is deny information to the town. It won't cost the Mafia anything.

And that's assuming that he's town.

If he's scum, asking the Doc to target him guarantees an NK tonight. He takes the Doc out of commission.

Alright guys, you know my thoughts on this.

Vote: Syzygy

Let's run him up and get a hard claim. He claims Doc, will the real Doc please counterclaim? He claims townie, we've gotta lynch him. Syz, if you're townie, please just claim townie.

[Mispeled]

NC: I agree with you that getting a hard claim out of Syzygy is the way to go, but I don't see why we have to lynch him if he claims townie.

[neko2086]

OK, yeah, we need a hardclaim from syz. Missed the softclaim part, and that is putting us in a bind. I don't see the scum getting lost in a 'perilous circle of wifom,' so the benefits of this plan are quite a bit lacking considering the situation it puts the town in.

I'd like to know where Freckles and Amor weigh in on this.

[New Coldness]

NC: I agree with you that getting a hard claim out of Syzygy is the way to go, but I don't see why we have to lynch him if he claims townie.

'cause he's the best possible lynch candidate I see right now, we've gotta lynch someone today, and if he claims townie then he's no longer a claimed Doc.

[Amor]

So Syg, I've been thinking your claim over and it's not really a claim, just. "I'm the doctor but then again I might not be DUN DUN DUN." Which really doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Also, the point of the town's play isn't to confuse scum, it's to figure out who the scum is. The best possible result is that you're a townie and the scum try to kill you, but the doctor protects you. In this case we have 6 people instead of 5 and... that's it. LyLo doesn't get put off any and it doesn't give us any information unless the doc claims. Even in this case the scum now knows exactly what the setup is. Meanwhile this gambit has done absolutely nothing to reveal who the scum is, and we've just spent the last page talking about it while the scum (if it isn't you) has been completely out of the spotlight.

Now, the question is, is using this suspicious. I can see town pulling it, imitating another player. It's also beneficial for scum, because it gives you the protection of claiming doc but if you get counterclaimed you can say it was just a gambit. Unsure about whether I should vote for you now.

[neko2086]

'cause he's the best possible lynch candidate I see right now

What about the points brought up about IH and his predecessor? I don't think we should let the discussion on syz completely dominate the conversation.

Weren't you saying earlier, though, that the two worst scenarios for town involve lynching syz?

[New Coldness]

Weren't you saying earlier, though, that the two worst scenarios for town involve lynching syz?

That's if he doesn't hardclaim.

[Syzygy]

I dont' want to be forced to L-1. I might have overestimated the benefits but ok, here's the HARD claim, I am actually just a VANILLA TOWN.

In Newbie 540, the setup was open and eveyrone knows that there was a cop, a and a mafia roleblocker while in this game, the setup is tricky and this gambit does nothing because town doesn't know the setup. I overlooked that part and I am hugely embarrassed because of this error (such a bad start on my meta).

Of course, like any claims, you have the option to doubt it, but that's up to you. I like to point everyone's attention to Indigo Heron (sorry I.H reminds me of the player IH, lol) and his reaction to my gambit on the page back, like I said, scummy as hell.

P.S. Okay, that sounds like me directing the attention away from myself, so I'll say that you should feel free to question me more, but Heron should get scrutinized for his posts on the last page.

[neko2086]

Damn, I really thought it was genuine.

Not completely opposed to adhering to LAL, but I do agree that IH (and I do realize there is another player called IH, but this is just the easiest for me...) needs to be looked into. He did some serious backpedaling that just

can't

be ignored.

[Indigo Heron]

What's so scummy about it? You think that I would 'obviously' follow your 'well' thought-of motives to vote for you? Any replacement that comes across in my games gets a temporary benefit of the doubt from me.

Now, when the second most proactive player in this game and a lurker get killed off, how else would you go about it? You call it Scum's Conscience, I call it 'trying to put myself in the shoes of the scum and figure out what they're doing next'. Hence the assessment of the assassination, and the post-by-post analysis of Kang's history in this game.

P.S. Sorry if I can't compress it into two words.

[Syzygy]

^ay, a bit defensive there.

EBWOP in my post 215: the game Newbie 540 has a doctor, a cop and a mafia roleblocker, so there was no questions about roles and that was why the gambit worked in that game (to an extent).

I totally overlooked the setup info in the 1st post *sigh*

[New Coldness]

Alright, I'll reread Indigo later and see if doing so makes me want to change my vote. I'll admit, I've been pretty myopically focused on Syz here.

I am normally not very sympathetic to these kinds of claims of setup/mechanics ignorance. Information is gold in a Mafia game, and the idea that someone skipped over free information about the setup strikes me as hard to believe. Especially when the setup is as limited as this and gaining one piece of information can lead immediately to the deduction of another.

[Syzygy]

trust me NC, I'm feel very embarrassed right now, being that I'm not suppose to make such a newbie mistake

[neko2086]

Grimmy was more reactive than proactive, but enough of him.

Any replacement that comes across in my games gets a temporary benefit of the doubt from me.

Which is very generous of you, but unfortunately if scum figure out that the town is giving a clean slate to replacements, they can just replace out whenever the heat is turned up on them. Replacements certainly can't be asked to explain their predecessor's actions, but that doesn't mean we forget about them.

mod

: prod freckles, please. Thanks.

[MeMe]

prodding Freckles

[Syzygy]

why is this game kinda dead?

[New Coldness]

Okay, stuff on IH: first of all, the most obvious reason for the NK was explained,

by him

, early on: lurker. Offing him gives the town no new info. Pick someone who isn't controversial and who doesn't have many posts to analyze and it's hard to link them to anyone. Not that it matters, because trying to figure out why scum offed someone is an exercise in WIFOM anyway.

IH nevertheless analyzes the posts and links Kang to ML, then votes ML. And the only new information this is based on is the post analysis of Kang. Which, IMHO, is worthless. It's certainly not strong enough to bring an FoS to a vote.

On the backpedal: I think that Syz is potentially

scummier

than ML, but at the time it looks like I was in the minority on that. It wasn't until after I explained my opposition to Syz's softclaim that people started turning their scumdars on Syz. Giving the replacement a honeymoon, though, I can't disagree with all that much.

This, however,

@Amor: What were we supposed to do? I wanted to generate some discussion in this 'dead-end' game by voting for him. I was also trying to see which of the scum would follow in my footsteps by adding votes to the vote count for Mamaluigi, bringing him closer (but not enough to actally do so) to lynch him.

is LAME. I would have been more inclined to agree with IH if he had just stuck to his guns on why he voted for ML. Even though I think that the Kang PBPA wasn't nearly enough reason to push an FoS to a vote, I think there was enough reason already there before that to vote ML. Granted, the move was more aggressive than what I wanted to do (I wanted to wait for ML to post again before I potentially voted for his replacement), but I can't really fault the original rationale.

I can't really argue with IH laying off the replacement all that much because I did something sort of similar. It's just that 1) I didn't go as far as fast, and therefore didn't have much distance to backpedal, and 2) I ended up voting the replacement anyway. So here's what I do find scummy about IH:

1. A PBPA of an NK'd character pushing an FoS to a vote, when IH had already stated a perfectly good, tactically sound (from a scum perspective) reason to NK Kang that had nothing to do with the PBPA. The PBPA was pure WIFOM.

2. The backpedal - not on Syz -

but on ML

. "He seemed scummy" would have been a good enough reason for me to explain why he voted ML. A new character replacing in

was

a good enough reason for me (short-lived as it was) to back off the ML succession. But the statement that he was trying to draw out other scum by starting a wagon on ML was, as I stated earlier, lame.

Given all of this, though, I still find Syz scummier. But they could both be scum; it's possible that IH was bussing ML and then thought that Syz had convinced enough people he was town to buddy with him. But that's just speculation and I'm not seriously willing to go there yet.