Amor wrote:Why would this be the case? Logically if ML did certain things because he was scum the person who replaced him would still be scum. I don't like this post, this could be either foreshadowing that his suspicions will change if ML gets a replacement that can competently defend themselves, or that he's setting up ML's replacement to be cleared of suspicion.
I'm not willing to impute anything done by an abandoning player, to his replacement. ML could have just been a noob. If he was scum, then yeah, his replacement is scum. But he might not be.
As for Syz... jeez. I adhere religiously to LAL, I think his claim, if true, or even HALF true, is mindblowingly dumb, and I'm just generally not happy with what he's done.
So we've got three possibilities on Syz:
1. He's telling the truth and probably just cost us a Doc.
2. He's lying and town, in which case my first instinct is to lynch on LAL grounds (illogical as that first instinct is, if this is the case), but we shouldn't because he just got himself NK'd and the town will lose a green instead of a blue tonight, which is cool. But scum could counterclaim Doc, and if we lynched Syz and he was cardflipped townie, the scum would still be immune to lynch unless the real Doc then counterclaimed,
if we have one
. If not, we're boned.
3. He's lying and scum, and just prevented himself from being lynched until MUCH later by claiming Doc. And on the possibility that he's just a townie, the Doc can't counterclaim. In fact, even if the *real* doc gets offed at some point, Syz can just claim townie later on and escape a lynch.
1) If I am not actually the doctor, the doctor should NOT counterclaim me. I repeat, do NOT counterclaim. That would be stupid, and it would only further my own goals if I am scum.
I HATE THIS, for reasons mentioned. There's a reason why LAL is a good idea, and it's this. If Syz is scum and the Doc gets cardflipped, Syz has just immunized himself from an LAL lynch. And if he's scum, we can't lynch him without a Doc being revealed
because he's claimed Doc
. Furthermore, I'd trade a Doc for a scum any day of the week this early in the game. If Syz is scum, a counterclaim would be the best thing a real Doc could do. If Syz is town, a counterclaim would be disastrous.
2) Since there is no counterclaim, the mafia do not know if I really am the doctor. They will be stuck in a perilous circle of wifom that will paralyze their actions at night. They will probably try to get me lynched so that they don't have to worry about nightkilling me.
On the contrary. If I were playing scum, I'd risk blowing an NK on the chance that you're actually the Doc. Even if you're a townie and the Doc covers you tonight, the scum can still get info off of this. Observe:
One of the following four set-ups is used for this game:
a) 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 5 Townies
b) 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies
c) 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Cop, 6 Townies
d) 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Doctor, 6 Townies
The Mafia already know whether or not they have a roleblocker. So they know if we're in A or B, or C or D. If they target Syz and he turns out to be the Doc, OR if the real Doc covers him, they'll know the setup instantly, assuming they have a roleblocker, while the town is still left in the dark. On the other hand, if the scum successfully kill him and he turns out to be town, it won't give them any new info. The Doc may not have covered Syz, or we may just have seven townies.
If the Mafia DON'T have a roleblocker, then if Syz turns out to be the Doc, OR if they try to whack him and the kill gets blocked, they know they don't have a Cop to worry about. If he turns out to be town, then it's still up in the air.
In any event, the scum just have to fire off an NK on Syz tonight to be in the clear. Best case scenario for them, they nail the Doc and it's a freebie, AND they learn the game setup. Or they lose an NK, but learn the game setup. Or they off a townie uncontested. That last one is the worst-case scenario for them, because they keep their tempo with regards to their NKs but gain no new info.
Know what's really fun about this? If Syz is scum, his buddy could counterclaim on him and they'd still both be effectively immune to lynches, thanks to the softness of Syz's claim. Then the real Doc would have to counterclaim. With three claimed Docs, one soft and two hard, the town would be paralyzed. If the real Doc got lynched, Syz could still fall back on his softclaim, in which case the prudent course of action would be to lynch him anyway... unless he's a townie running, IMHO, an extremely foolish gambit, in which case we lose a Doc and a townie to hit one scum.
I am EXTREMELY displeased with this.
But I am not displeased enough to try to lynch a claimed Doc. No, not even a softclaimed doc.
In fact, I'm going to operate under the assumption that Syz just softclaimed townie.
IGMEOY: Syz
What I'd really like to do is put Syz under the hammer and get a hard claim out of him. He claims townie, we lynch him. He claims Doc, real doc (if we have one) counterclaims, and we lynch Syz (and then the other claimed Doc if Syz turns out to actually be a Doc). If Syz claims Doc and we don't get a counterclaim, we back off and hope to God we have a Cop. If Syz maintains his Doc claim, gets counterclaimed, gets lynched, and turns out to be a townie, then we spit on his grave and hope that we have a Cop to confirm the other claimed Doc.
Neko, I see your point, but I HATE what Syz has done and will probably end up voting him unless everyone else can convince me that it's a bad idea to go for a hard claim. Syz's actions have caused the town to lose out on information in the long run, have given the scum WAY more information than he says (they can go for an NK on Syz tonight and possibly instantly know the setup) and have almost certainly cost us a Doc.
Best case scenario: Syz gets NK'd and turns up town. Doc (if we have one) stays under the radar.
Intermediate scenario 1: Doc eventually gets killed, Syz is scum and gets lynched.
Intermediate scenario 2: Syz gets NK'd and turns up Doc.
Intermediate scenario 3: Doc eventually gets killed, Syz is town and gets lynched.
Worst case scenario: Syz gets lynched and turns up Doc.
In other words, it's in our best interests not to lynch him as long as his current softclaim stands.
Minimax. The two worst possible scenarios involve him getting lynched. This is GREAT for him if he's scum. Not particularly great for the town if he's Doc, 'cause he'll still get NK'd. Horrible for the town if he's townie, because then if we lose the real Doc further down the line, we'll lose a townie by lynching Syz.
If going for a hard claim is not agreeable, then may I ask that the Doc NOT protect Syz (and for the love of God, NOT ROLECLAIM)? We'll lose a townie if the scum decide to hit him, but we'll deny the scum information about the game setup.
If the scum decide to NK someone besides Syz, or just forego their NK altogether... yeah, I'm not even going there. Too much wine.
