mini 620 - pxm - GAME OVER

[xyzzy]

A reminder: as per the underlined section of rule one, days end at 120 hours, even if 7 (or even 12, lol) votes have already been cast for someone, and even at majority you can continue to modify your votes and potentially change the lynchee; hence, there is no lynch-1 in this game - just who will be lynched at deadline.

Also, remember that this game is nightless, and that scum get a kill every 250 non-mod posts.

Now for your daily votecount!

Votecount 1-2

ting =): killa seven
Now a JDodge: icemuffin, Tarmogoyf, ting =), StrangerCoug
killa seven: strife220, Green Cow
StrangerCoug: Now a JDodge
maxwellhouse: Lawrencelot-Muerrto
icemuffin: maxwellhouse

Not voting: ShadowGirl, kabenon007, maxwellhouse

[Now a JDodge]

this is dahill chiming in real quickly.

unvote vote maxwell

this is so obvious scum that it hards
first of all, the whole defending killa seven while simultaneously attacking us for the

same exact reason

...and even after TrojH posted with content! i have some questions for maxwell concerning that even though i can't think of how he can possibly defend himself over such an obvious move.

i'm not entirely sure about nowajdodge. the random pop-in to say "hi i vote green cow"? what was that? i suppose it could be a random slip up of not reading the rules, but i kinda feel like it was a slip up of poor communication, as in the hydras talked but did not clear up everything of their vote.

distancing himself from the wagon and yet he still votes us. if you feel as if it was poor communication then why vote us?

killa seven, i think that was a slip up. based on what he said, he seemed very "normal" mafia lynching. the reason he hasn't responded with he reasons could be his making up for the short post. so i don't think we should jump on killa seven just yet.

what possible difference was there between the two posts that made you decide his was definitely a slip up? you defend him by saying that he hasn't responded yet because he is planning to make a big post. first of all, that is assuming a lot, because how could you know what he is planning on doing? also, TrojH as NAJ posted a contentful post that cleared things up after the original first post by NAJ. by your logic, we should not jump on NAJ yet.

first off, i came to post only because i was prodded and don't want to be eliminated because of that.

would you have posted if not prodded?

second, i voted because i didn't want to waste a post by not voting, and i thought voting would make NAJD respond and defend themselves. i guess that was some faulty decision-making on my part, sorry about that.

didn't you already see our second and third post?

honestly, i am a bit baffled at who to vote for. but now that i'm reading stuff, i am hesitant to go through with the voting. maybe i am easily swayed but...

unvote

why are you so suddenly unvoting now? what has changed your mind about NAJ? would you have unvoted if people hadn't pointed out that you were being hypocritical in your vote?

though now that i am reviewing, the icemuffin seems to be contributing not so much besides the writing down the ideas in a word document. both people seem to be filling up more posts than necessary. the first post did not really have much "meat" to it and the second two... couldn't you have asked the question AND had the analysis in the same post? it would take up less posts.

vote: icemuffin

at this point in the game, this is pretty much a crap reason for a vote on icemuffin. we gained tons of information due to that quick bandwagon on NAJ. i think you were just placing a blatant bandwagon vote for crap reasons, you got caught, and now you are trying to pull back your vote and keep the spotlight off for a while

[Now a JDodge]

Jathan here, just wondering how the wagon on us could have formed beyond bull shit reasoning. Tarmogoyf is voting on an unreasonable suspicion that we are going to break site rules of not playing to win and a post that is pretty mucha null tell as having less posts avaliable is bad for any alignment. Lawrencelot is voting based on a reasoning very similar to trying to lynch good players early as they are too good as scum. Ting is voting us for absolutely no reason. Coug is just jumping on a wagon as he it is obvious a multi-headed accounts members are going to be slightly hypocritical, especially when they make a post that is disjointed among members. Maxwell votes for self contradicting reasons.

At least one of Coug and Maxwell is probably scum.

Also, I did not make the first post. I do not know who did.

Natirasha (Tarmogoyf), your vote is perplexing; Now a JDodge is not just here to screw around, we're actually playing mafia - though even if we were, that wouldn't be any reason to vote us. While I can sort of deduce you were semi-joking, the second half of your reasoning isn't much clearer. What about that post made you think NaJ is scum? Do you really think anyone in this hydra at all is stupid enough to blatantly try and lose the game for town single-handedly? WIFOM dosen't apply, as town wasting posts can't possibly be interpreted as town, therefore scum would have no alignment-based reason to do so. To clarify, null tell.

Seems like looking for excuses to vote, from my POV.

~ Xdaamno

Armlx Here:

Just Want To Say That It Is Dumb To Lynch Us As We Will Reach 100 Posts For Sure And Die Meaning We Won't Make It To Endgame. Also Do The Mafia Get To Kill During Nights Between Each Lynch? As Then It Seems Broken As They Also Get Extra Kills For Posts And 2:10 Already Has Never Been Won By Town.

[ting =)]

Ting is voting us for absolutely no reason.

I'm going to be annoyed by people who make short-ish posts and will move to get them lynched. Every post just bumps the mafia kill.

You should have known better than to make a short post like that. I understand that you're made up of more than 1 player, but look at it from the outside - you just did something scummy and then went, 'but I didn't do it!'

It's like a murderer claiming he's schizoprenzic and pleading insanity.

I'm not suspicious of you at the moment. Just annoyed that one of you either didn't read the rules or chose to ignore it.

Also Do The Mafia Get To Kill During Nights Between Each Lynch?[/qutoe]

Also, remember that this game is nightless, and that scum get a kill every 250 non-mod posts.

----

I don't like the 1 post per real time day idea, whoever brought it up. It delays the nightkill, yes, but that's useless if we don't have information to catch scum. I think 2 posts per real time day is ideal. Right now, at day 1 - it means we'll have about 2 days until the nk. That's already better than a normal mini. Thoughts?

As the game goes on and we get less players, the nk gets further apart, so we really don't need to worry about wasting our 100 posts or about the 250post nk as much as we should worry about beating the 5 day deadline.

Fun fact: If we always wait until hitting the 3-day-modkill deadline before posting, we can actually have 12+ lynches before the mafia even have an nk. That's the furthest end of the ratio. Does anyone have software they could use to graph out all the deadlines and stuff to find the best balance between information:nk? I'm too lazy to do it on paper. We could seriously screw the mafia over if we knew.

----

I agree that the NaJ wagon grew really fast. I'm not sure if it's because of people being iffy of the deadline or because some of them are scum wagoning.

I really don't like maxwell's first post, and I don't like his response to Muerto when he got called on it.

vote:maxwell.

I think he's a better place for my vote than NaJD at the moment.

[StrangerCoug]

I'll go ahead and

Unvote: Not a JDodge

for right now but throw an

HoS: Not a JDodge

. Do you understand the saying "one bad apple ruins the whole bunch"? If I'm not mistaken, that's the case we have on you. Head A did this, and thus Heads B, C, D, E, F, G, H, and J are responsible for A's actions (even though I know there less than nine heads to the hydra now—I skipped letter I for clarification purposes, by the way).

maxwellhouse, the first part of your second post doesn't make me happy. Don't post solely because you have been prodded and/or it's been close to 72 hours since the last time you posted. When you get prodded and/or realize you're very close to your 72-hour death, that's your cue to read everything since your last visit, formulate your opinions about what you've read, and state them and how you came to them, not to complain about your prod/being close to death.

I also don't understand that you say you're hesitant to go through with the voting and take your vote off only to put it on someone else

in the same post.

Either I have misinterpreted your post or you are blatantly hypocritical.

I also think you also have a somewhat weak reason for voting Not a JDodge in your first post. The last thing before your bolded vote mentions that hydras will probably make more posts as more of the heads post their thoughts. Not only does the order you mention everything suggest (to me) that you want his death sped up, but if Not a JDodge is smart, he'll get as many people as possible to stick what they think in his one giant post.

I also believe Not a JDodge's case on you in post #26.

Vote: maxwellhouse

ting =), since you object to one post a day, does one post in the morning and one post in the afternoon for right now sound like a good idea to you?

[ting =)]

Last post for the day.

@strangercoug.
My last post got me thinking actually. This bit:

Fun fact: If we always wait until hitting the 3-day-modkill deadline before posting, we can actually have 12+ lynches before the mafia even have an nk. That's the furthest end of the ratio. Does anyone have software they could use to graph out all the deadlines and stuff to find the best balance between information:nk? I'm too lazy to do it on paper. We could seriously screw the mafia over if we knew.

This made me see something which nobody seems to have spotted in my original numbers - the 5 day maximum assumption is wrong.

We theoretically have 10 games days maximum(50 real time days), not 5 - this game is nightless.

[warning: some number crunching]

If we wait for the maximum limit of 3 days before posting, the minimum number of posts we can make per player is 17. (50/3 rounded off)

Multiplied by 12 players, that's 204 posts total in the game - actual number is way less, since we actually get rid of one player every game day, but irrelevant, because the point is that - we can lynch everyone except for 2 players before the mafia even nk. So technically, if we can pick out 2 people now who we trust, we can win the game by posting minimally and just wagoning.

The problem, is that we can't - because we won't have information on people unless people actually post more than once every 3 days. That's the problem I'm trying to figure out, how often should we actually post?

That's why I suggested 2 posts per real time day.

Anyway, since it's NOT 5 days max, 2 days per real time day is not as good as I originally thought, but still a pretty good idea.
2 posts per real time day translates to 750 posts over the whole 10 days. (Each game day is 5 real time days, so it's 10 posts per person per game day. Since we lynch 1 person every day, the first day will have 120 posts, and the last day will have 30, on average.)

That doesn't factor in nightkills though. It's hard to show what happens when you factor in nightkill without a graph or a table, but basically going with 2 posts per real day per player, the scum get their first nk on the

3rd game day, 1st real day.

Their second nk will happen on the

6th game day, 1st real day.

The game will go into lylo on the 8th day with only 594 total posts: So the 3 endgame people will actually have 156 posts between them to discuss.

[Note: I'm assuming longest possible scenario here, we lynch 1 scum and get endgamed with the last. We could end up lynching them both early and end the game right after that.]

Anyway, since I doubt they can pull off 156 posts in 5 days, maybe the last 250 posts should be spread out starting from when we have 5 or 4 people left. (day 6 after nk, or day 7)

[/end number crunch]

Seeing as how we'll be getting off 8 lynches to the scum's 2 nk, yes, I think two posts per real time day per player is a pretty good deal.

I'm not going to show the numbers, but if you go with 1 post per real time day, the scum get their first nk at the end of the 5th game day. They only get that one nk. The last 3 players will go into lylo with a total of only 325 posts, or 175 posts between all of them to kill.

9 lynches to 1 nk is also a good deal. Also, I've realized it's probably not that bad an idea, since we actually have more information now than I initially expected we'd have if people only posted once per day.

I suppose I'm fine if people post either once a day or twice a day. Anything less is just massive lurking considering we have a 5 day deadline.
--

Note: I

think

they're right, but just in case, can someone check my numbers?

[ShadowGirl]

I apologize for not posting - my phone and internet went out for some inexplicable reason and it took a few days before a repairmen came to fix it - a reread shall be coming soon.

[maxwellhouse]

actually, i am not scum at all. you guys can lynch me all you want... you'll just be sorry about it afterward because i am 100% innocent.

i would NOT have posted if i had not been prodded, because i really don't think i have anything to contribute. however, i don't want to be modkilled because of that, so i posted what i saw. would you rather i have said "hi, i'm here to post because i was prodded." and end it there? i will do that next time if you would like.

granted, i'm not contributing much except being a townie.

distancing himself from the wagon and yet he still votes us. if you feel as if it was poor communication then why vote us?

i voted for you because i thought one of you could have came up with an idea of who to vote for and instead of further communicating, one of you voted. again, i probably shouldn't have said that because now i look "guilty" but would you rather i just say i was posting just so i wouldn't be modkilled?

what possible difference was there between the two posts that made you decide his was definitely a slip up? you defend him by saying that he hasn't responded yet because he is planning to make a big post. first of all, that is assuming a lot, because how could you know what he is planning on doing? also, TrojH as NAJ posted a contentful post that cleared things up after the original first post by NAJ. by your logic, we should not jump on NAJ yet.

the difference i saw was that whoever posted in yours said nothing but "hi vote: so and so" and the other person was like "hahaha i vote randomly for this person because of this". the first seemed more like a serious vote, the second seemed more of a normal mafia vote (randomly voting and giving a funny/stupid reason for it). the first didn't have that, so i thought maybe it might have been poor communication.

didn't you already see our second and third post?

ok, for one thing, the third post came AFTER my post. so no, i didn't see your third post. yes, i did see the second post and i wanted to know more of what you guys would have to say. i'm sorry i couldn't read the future.

why are you so suddenly unvoting now? what has changed your mind about NAJ? would you have unvoted if people hadn't pointed out that you were being hypocritical in your vote?

duh, i read your third post and every post in between, all of the people saying how we should get off the NAJD bandwagon. so i did. did you want me to stay on that vote? would that make me less scum?

at this point in the game, this is pretty much a crap reason for a vote on icemuffin. we gained tons of information due to that quick bandwagon on NAJ. i think you were just placing a blatant bandwagon vote for crap reasons, you got caught, and now you are trying to pull back your vote and keep the spotlight off for a while

no, not at all. i read deeper into icemuffin's posts and i saw that they were posting more "fluff" than anything. why would i vote for someone randomly to take the spotlight off of me? that's completely stupid, as NO one else has voted for him so far. that would put MORE spotlight on me, not less. which is shown now as everyone is like "maxwell is guilty because she voted for someone randomly kill herrrrr". so yeah.

ok, i will stop voting and contributing if you guys like. i have a hard time bring ideas to the table so obviously i should just post fluff and not vote because that is better that for a townie to live.

my first post was stupid, and i guess now my second post is stupid also. fine, well kill me off for that. i can't change your mind obviously because i will always be seen as guilty. but

MY FIRST POST WAS MADE BECAUSE I WAS PRODDED TO DO SO. I HAD NOTHING TO CONTRIBUTE BUT I THOUGHT I WOULD TRY ANYWAY. obviously it was bad for me. i did what you guys said to do, i'm trying to formulate my own opinions. i'm not angry, i'm just trying to defend myself and everyone keeps telling me that it's wrong for me to post. i won't post anymore. call me a brat, whatever. these are my opinions and i thought i would bring it to the table.

but i stay with my vote on icemuffin. if that kills me, then so be it.

[Icemuffin]

OK, IcemanE again with a real post.

killa wrote:
vote ting
for beating me to the thread


This is obviously the first thing that caught my eye. However, while it's definitely a waste of a post, with a 72 hour deadline and being the second person to post there isn't really anything at all to go on. You could fill it up with BS but it seems unnecessary in your first post - it's a big help, though, to write enough that it can be analyzed, or at least lay out theories, in this setup. In a regular game this wouldn't be at all out of the ordinary, but in a game with these sorts of crazy restrictions posts aren't free.

On NaJD: From my point of view, a hydra with tons of heads is going to be easier to read than a single player. You'll have multiple players leaving tells if they're scum, and multiple players contributing analysis if they are town. It could be argued that they'll all review the post before it shows up in the thread, thereby catching any mistakes, but I doubt they'll be able to pull that off effectively within 72 hours every time, and they have at least one person in there that isn't a team-player (AKA, the guy who left the tiny post early in the game). So I think the huge hydra will wind up being beneficial to the town. The only thing I DON'T like about the massive hydra is that they can post a lot to accelerate us towards 250 with an easy reason for an excuse - that is, they can say they don't know which head did this or that (an example is their first post) or all post separately. This is a bit scary.

unvote

My view on scum posting rates is that they'll probably post a lot early in the game, to accelerate us towards the 250 post mark, but slow down significantly around 50 posts or so to avoid the 100 post instant kill. This makes lurking in the late game a more significant tell and definitely something to watch for.

I'm not a big fan of this post:

kabenon wrote:
I do not have much time to post, I do not have much time at the moment to read, but I do not want to waste my post, nor do I want to be modkilled for not posting in 72 hours, so consider this an obligatory post in which I will try to have some thoughts as well.


"Obligatory" posts should still be filled with as much info as possible, IMO. While kabenon's post is not particularly offensive as it includes some analysis, it is the suggestion of the idea that posts should be made solely to avoid the 3-day kill that perturbs me. I think we should avoid this kind of posting at all costs. I've already wasted two posts myself, as seen with the Iceman/Icemuffin accident above.

Speaking of that:

@Mod: I don't think that should count towards either the 250 or my 100 posts total, because I also think that hydras should only be allowed to post on the multi-head account; that will make things infinitely less confusing. Of course it is your call.-

My post was so short because I misunderstood the rules, unfortunately. Not only did I think there were only ten players in the game (as I now notice Ting did earlier), I also thought it worked on the majority lynch basis. I now understand how the setup works and will be more attentive from here on out.

I totally agree with Muerto on this point:

Muerto wrote:
Maxwell defended Killa7 in his post(slip up?) and then attacked and VOTED JDodge for the exact same reason(the short post). How's 1 bad and 1 a slip up? And the vote put him at lynch -1.


I don't think his reasoning is particularly strong either:

Maxwell wrote:
first off, i came to post only because i was prodded and don't want to be eliminated because of that. second, i voted because i didn't want to waste a post by not voting, and i thought voting would make NAJD respond and defend themselves. i guess that was some faulty decision-making on my part, sorry about that.


As I said I REALLY don't want to see "obligatory" posts. Voting just to vote is something I also REALLY don't want to see.

NaJD brings up a very good point against maxwell:

NaJD wrote:
what possible difference was there between the two posts that made you decide his was definitely a slip up? you defend him by saying that he hasn't responded yet because he is planning to make a big post. first of all, that is assuming a lot, because how could you know what he is planning on doing?


As does StrangerCoug:

StrangerCoug wrote:
I also don't understand that you say you're hesitant to go through with the voting and take your vote off only to put it on someone else in the same post.


As such, vote: Maxwell

- IcemanE

[Natirasha]

First off,

unvote

. I had the choice between NAJD and another player. Under the circumstances, I was going to vote the 8-headed beast. However, you have been posting good posts, and I'll let that one slide. I do ask that you find who posted that post as soon as possible, though.

Second, these are the people I'm currently suspicious of.
ting-His posts have been nearly nothing but a useless string of numbers and equations and are there to just distract the town and add to the post count
maxwellhouse-Need I explain..?
killa7-If the only post you are making is to do a randomvote, you deserve to die.

Vote: K7

[strife220]

Given that the game is nightless, and scum Only get to kill every 10 pages, I will restate the importance of not posting very often. The less town talks here, the better. I'd go as far as saying that it's a better idea to talk less and lynch based on less information than it is to talk more and have better informed lynches. Theoretically, if we could get 10 lynches (max #) before page 10, then town would almost be guaranteed a win. Unfortunately, as broken as it is, that's the ideal play here. If scum only get 1 or 2 lynches, town is at a Huge advantage. Scum win only if town spends too much time talking.

I propose that we treat this game as if it did have a night. That is, once majority has decided on the lynch, we should shut up until the end of the day comes. The fact that the day Has to last 120 hours is a benefit to scum, because even after the lynch is inevitable, people will keep chattering and donating to the scum-lynches.

In practice: K7 is at 4 votes. NAJ was at 6 votes earlier. If K7 (or anyone else) hits 7 votes, the lynch has been essentially chosen for the day, and town gain very little by continuing to talk.


@NAJ: Please Don't double post like you did post 26+27. If several of you have something to say, PM to yourself and let the next person who wants to talk combine the posts.



@Ting Post 30: I think this post is very pro-town and everybody should read and understand it. It's right along with what I'm thinking as well. Except for the 2 posts per day thing - I think that's unnecessary. You can't say anything in 2 posts a day that you can't say in 1 post a day. Hell, I don't have a problem with people posting once every 2.5 days (twice per game day), so long as that post has a lot of content.

In general: If NAJ hadn't run up to 6 votes so quickly, my vote would be on there too. I have very little suspicion on the people on that wagon, and disagree with most every of NAJ's attacks in post 26-27. As such, I haven't seen any major scumtells and will keep my vote on K7 until he tells my why not. Though I think he if doesn't post in the next 30 hours he is modkilled


@Iceman: Good post, but you fail miserable at quote and bold tags..


@All - I disagree with the maxwell wagon. Or at least the point the everyone brings up: that he voted for NAJ for making a useless post but left K7 off the hook. The difference is in the timing. NAJ's first post was post 10 of the thread, after many people had said how bad an idea it was to post things like this. Though he hasn't posted yet to defend his first post, I assume he's going to plea ignorance. NAJ has no excuse, which made it look like someone just being a jerk for the sake of.

Other points against Maxwell are reasonable for page 2. That one is just blown way out of proportion

[killa seven]

i random voted because anyone who knows me knows i most likely wont make it to 100 posts anyways.

unvote

vote maxwell

[xyzzy]

Votecount 1-3

Now a JDodge: icemuffin, ting =)
killa seven: strife220, Green Cow, Targomoyf
maxwellhouse: Lawrencelot-Muerrto, Now a JDodge, StrangerCoug, killa seven
icemuffin: maxwellhouse

Not voting: ShadowGirl, kabenon007

[Lawrencelot]

Mod

: are we allowed to quote PMs sent to ourselves or to people in our own hydra?

Okay, posting what I think about everyone. Muerrto's opinion may vary a bit, but I think it doesn't vary too much. In short, Muerrto's opinion is: maxwell is scum, NaJ probably not because his wagon grew too fast, killa7 is scum if maxwell is scum. Now a short list of my reads.

ShadowGirl: no read

Icemuffin: his latest post doesn't seem scummy, I only wonder why he didn't show his thoughts when he thought NaJ was lynched. Was it only because of the effort? The double-post doesn't bother me that much.

kabenon007: like maxwell, he makes an obligatory post. I'll keep my eye on him.

strife220: can't find anything scummy. I agree with almost everything he says. Especially what he says about NaJ.

Now a JDodge: I find him pretty scummy. Their first post is something I won't forget, and they need to find the person who made it, or they should get lynched. "I didn't do it" is not a good defense. "everyone who attacked us uses bullshit reasoning" is not a good defense. "maxwell is obvious scum" is not a good defense. If maxwell isn't scum, this one is the best candidate.

killa seven: acts scummy, but I don't think he acts anything different from normal. I only don't like how he uses that as a defense though.

Green Cow: If NaJ is scum, he's a good candidate for being the scumbuddy.

maxwellhouse: (s?)he bothers me. Her behaviour is very newbish, she says things like "well you can lynch me for what I did but you'll regret it" and she said somthing like "shall I just post nothing then?" like 3 times. A good thing is how she tries to defend herself against the accusations of NaJ. I think her lynch would be acceptable, but my gut says she is more likely newb town than newb scum.

StrangerCoug: don't always agree with him, but he looks pretty protown to me

Tarmogoyf: there is one post that bugs me, and that's Natirasha's latest post. I don't know why, but I don't like it. Maybe because she suspects ting, or what she says about maxwell and who she votes for. IGMEOY

ting =): I'm not really interested in all those numbers, even though I'm a mathematician. I just post when I'm online and feel like I should post, which is different in this game because of the restrictions. It is a good point though that we shouldn't post too much though, others said it too. I have software to make a graph, 2D or 3D or whatever you want, but you'll have to say to me exactly what you want and show the data, because I'm not interested enough

I'm not sure yet if Muerrto agrees, but for Day 1 I trust my own gut more than what other players say, so

Unvote; Vote: Now a Jdodge

.

[ting =)]

Unvote. Vote:killa seven

That was a horrible post. I admit I don't have a meta on you, but you're hardly contributing anything at all. Of the three people I'd be willing to lynch, you, naj and maxwell, you're the only one who hasn't said

anything.

@maxwell.
What do you think of k7 now?

@ice.

From my point of view, a hydra with tons of heads is going to be easier to read than a single player. You'll have multiple players leaving tells if they're scum, and multiple players contributing analysis if they are town.

I disagree. They're harder to read because you can't get a meta on them. One head might look really scummy, and another might be the most protown contributor in the game. Just because a person drops a lot of tells doesn't make them scum. A number of people have built their playstyles around that as a meta shield.

I agree they'll contribute a lot, but not that they'll be easier to read.

My view on scum posting rates is that they'll probably post a lot early in the game, to accelerate us towards the 250 post mark, but slow down significantly around 50 posts or so to avoid the 100 post instant kill.

This makes lurking in the late game a more significant tell and definitely something to watch for.

NO. There's something about the game mechanics you're not getting, but I can't tell you

why,

because then it'll be a Cassandra prophecy.

@natirasha.
Okay, quick summary:
Obv stuff: Posting a lot = nk. Posting too little = can't scumhunt.
number crunching = how much we should actually post.

Given that the game is nightless, and scum Only get to kill every 10 pages, I will restate the importance of not posting very often. The less town talks here, the better. I'd go as far as saying that it's a better idea to talk less and lynch based on less information than it is to talk more and have better informed lynches. Theoretically, if we could get 10 lynches (max #) before page 10, then town would almost be guaranteed a win. Unfortunately, as broken as it is, that's the ideal play here. If scum only get 1 or 2 lynches, town is at a Huge advantage. Scum win only if town spends too much time talking.

My conclusion was that if we want the scum to only have 1 nk(this will give us 9 lynches to their sole nk) - we should post about once per day. Twice per day gives them 2 nks, but with 8 lynches and more information, I think that's also a decent trade off.

I've also said a lot of other stuff besides numbers, but if you find the numbers distracting, I'll stop.

@strife.

You can't say anything in 2 posts a day that you can't say in 1 post a day. Hell, I don't have a problem with people posting once every 2.5 days (twice per game day), so long as that post has a lot of content.

Fair enough. After seeing how the game is turning out so far with the current rate of posting, perhaps 1 per day gives us enough info after all. I think two posts per game day is stretching into lurky though.

@lawrencelot.
Nah, forget the graph. Our current rate of posting is pretty good, so maybe it's not so important after all.

I agree with Muerrto's reads, but k7's last post makes me think he's scummier than maxwell.

[Icemuffin]

Gah. Iceman here again. All my tags and boldings got screwed up in that last post. Sorry.

I have changed my mind since that post about who we should lynch first. Obviously I don't think it should be Jdodge so I'm voting both to prevent Jdodge from being the lynch and because I HATE scummy meta defenses. Like this:

i random voted because anyone who knows me knows i most likely wont make it to 100 posts anyways.

I'm not sure whether that's a scummy meta or just a lazy meta. Either way it's horribly anti-town.

unvote - vote: K7

I only wonder why he didn't show his thoughts when he thought NaJ was lynched.

I forgot how strange the setup is - i.e., there's no twilight or night phase. If he'd been lynched I was going to save my analysis for the next day, but it doesn't work that way.

maxwellhouse: (s?)he bothers me. Her behaviour is very newbish, she says things like "well you can lynch me for what I did but you'll regret it" and she said somthing like "shall I just post nothing then?" like 3 times.

I agree on this - it's an appeal to emotion, and it doesn't work for me.

One head might look really scummy, and another might be the most protown contributor in the game. Just because a person drops a lot of tells doesn't make them scum. A number of people have built their playstyles around that as a meta shield.

That's a good point. The most interesting part of it will be to see how the heads interact with each other, I think.

NO. There's something about the game mechanics you're not getting, but I can't tell you why, because then it'll be a Cassandra prophecy.

I believe that for sure. Don't tell me, I'll figure it out, this setup is just entirely different than any other I've played.

[Now a JDodge]

dahill here

Now a JDodge: I find him pretty scummy. Their first post is something I won't forget, and they need to find the person who made it, or they should get lynched. "I didn't do it" is not a good defense. "everyone who attacked us uses bullshit reasoning" is not a good defense. "maxwell is obvious scum" is not a good defense. If maxwell isn't scum, this one is the best candidate.

ok...did you read our actual defense other than those posts

Green Cow: If NaJ is scum, he's a good candidate for being the scumbuddy.

why?

actually, i am not scum at all. you guys can lynch me all you want... you'll just be sorry about it afterward because i am 100% innocent.

saying things like this won't change anyone's view on you

i would NOT have posted if i had not been prodded, because i really don't think i have anything to contribute. however, i don't want to be modkilled because of that, so i posted what i saw. would you rather i have said "hi, i'm here to post because i was prodded." and end it there? i will do that next time if you would like.

there was plenty of content so far in the game, and lots of things for you to analayze. especially the huge bandwagon on us, which you did the scummiest thing in that situation and voted for us with crap reasons. if you had nothing to contribute, then why did you feel you had to vote us if you wouldn't have otherwise?

granted, i'm not contributing much except being a townie.

"guys, don't lynch me! i'm just being a townie."

i voted for you because i thought one of you could have came up with an idea of who to vote for and instead of further communicating, one of you voted. again, i probably shouldn't have said that because now i look "guilty" but would you rather i just say i was posting just so i wouldn't be modkilled?

no i would rather you have posted something with content and not be modkilled. however, the case right now seems like you couldn't think of what to post and didn't want to be modkilled, so you just jumped on the easiest wagon

the difference i saw was that whoever posted in yours said nothing but "hi vote: so and so" and the other person was like "hahaha i vote randomly for this person because of this". the first seemed more like a serious vote, the second seemed more of a normal mafia vote (randomly voting and giving a funny/stupid reason for it). the first didn't have that, so i thought maybe it might have been poor communication.

it was indeed a result of poor communication which is exactly our point. we don't know what reasons whoever posted that had for voting green cow, so in my mind, i saw it as a random vote as well.

yes, i did see the second post and i wanted to know more of what you guys would have to say.

well what did you think about our second post? was your vote a pressure vote to get us to say more? if that is the case, then (i think) you had put as at L-1/L-2 which is no longer a pressure vote, and more of a "i want to lynch you" vote.

duh, i read your third post and every post in between, all of the people saying how we should get off the NAJD bandwagon. so i did. did you want me to stay on that vote? would that make me less scum?

so you are just mindlessly following the crowd now?!?! form your own opinions! first you voted us because everyone else was. then, you unvoted because everyone else was! how are people not seeing this?

ok, i will stop voting and contributing if you guys like. i have a hard time bring ideas to the table so obviously i should just post fluff and not vote because that is better that for a townie to live.

please try to contribute. there is lots of information out right now due to the various wagons, etc. that should be enough to form your thoughts on something.

[hasdgfas]

Hi. For some reason I can't log on to the hydra account so I'm posting using my main.

i random voted because anyone who knows me knows i most likely wont make it to 100 posts anyways.

unvote

vote maxwell

k7, you need to contribute more than this if you expect to survive.

Green Cow: If NaJ is scum, he's a good candidate for being the scumbuddy.

I love your reasoning for this. Mind elaborating?

ting-His posts have been nearly nothing but a useless string of numbers and equations and are there to just distract the town and add to the post count

What?

maxwellhouse-Need I explain..?

Yes, you do.

Given that the game is nightless, and scum Only get to kill every 10 pages, I will restate the importance of not posting very often. The less town talks here, the better. I'd go as far as saying that it's a better idea to talk less and lynch based on less information than it is to talk more and have better informed lynches.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. You should

never

lynch like this, even in a game set up like this. We still need to lynch informedly, but if people just make longer posts as opposed to shorter posts at the end of the day. We should talk

more

in fewer posts, we should not talk less by any stretch of the imagination.

FoS: strife

I apologize for not posting - my phone and internet went out for some inexplicable reason and it took a few days before a repairmen came to fix it - a reread shall be coming soon.

This is even worse than NAJ's and k7's first posts. If you're going to post in this game, at least bring something game-related. This post does nothing to drive the game forward at all and only helps scum.

FoS: ShadowGirl

I like my partner's vote on k7, especially after he made his second post with no more content than his first.

[StrangerCoug]

HoS: killa seven

for voting without reason in a contentless post.

I find myself agreeing with Now a JDodge's logic in post #41, and he has a pretty big case on maxwellhouse. There were tons and tons of information out there—out of necessity, even—and maxwellhouse has nothing to say about diddly squat!? Way to lurk.

Seriously, maxwellhouse, with that much information and you can't think about something to say, take the posts that stand out the most to you and talk about what you think about those posts. "I can't think of anything" is not an excuse and equates as "I'm too lazy to think of anything" as far as this game is concerned. If you have to resort to asking players questions about their posts, then do so. The more you say things along the lines of "Hey, I was prodded, and I don't want to die because of the time limit, so here I am," the more you bankrupt your credibility.

ting =), if numbers are not of concern to you, then go ahead and keep posting them. You may have to explain them to us so it's easier for us to understand, though. (You seem to be quite the mathematician )

[maxwellhouse]

well, i apologize about that because i AM a newbie, but i still am going to stand my ground. it seems no matter what i say i'm still scum however.

unvote

vote: killa7

why am i changing votes now?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!
1) his second post in general
2) if you read my first post,

for those too lazy:

killa seven, i think that was a slip up. based on what he said, he seemed very "normal" mafia lynching. the reason he hasn't responded with he reasons could be his making up for the short post. so i don't think we should jump on killa seven just yet.

i said we shouldn't jump on k7

at the moment,

just watch him since i thought it might have been an accidental passing of the rules. but now that he posted his second post of little content as well, yeah i'm going to be suspicious. especially since he hasn't tried to defend himself besides saying that he's going to die before 100 posts anyway. which was a worse reason than i gave (hahaha note: joke). so this is why i vote for him now.

and yeah, i apologize again for not contributing as much. all right, enough of that.

it was indeed a result of poor communication which is exactly our point. we don't know what reasons whoever posted that had for voting green cow, so in my mind, i saw it as a random vote as well.

well what did you think about our second post? was your vote a pressure vote to get us to say more? if that is the case, then (i think) you had put as at L-1/L-2 which is no longer a pressure vote, and more of a "i want to lynch you" vote.

so you are just mindlessly following the crowd now?!?! form your own opinions! first you voted us because everyone else was. then, you unvoted because everyone else was! how are people not seeing this?

all right. first off, yes i voted for you guys in the first place because i wanted to hear what you guys had to say. i guess that's faulty logic, since you guys were so close to being lynched, but i didn't read how many people were lynching you. the "poor communication" thing. YEAH i thought it was poor communication. i already explained what i thought was poor communication, but i will again to set the record straight. i thought you guys were discussing who to vote for and someone mistook it and posted right away. this vote was a much more serious-sounding vote that killa7's at the time- it was a "hi, i vote" and the other was a joking one. so i found NAJD's vote to be a serious vote that came early because you guys discussed and someone went ahead to vote without full discussion being done.
you admitted to there being poor communication. i took the vote off. what's wrong with that? you guys gave reasoning for why you guys were innocent, and i believe it. yes, of course i read other people's posts. i believe it also. that's why i took the vote off. it wasn't mindless "oh everyone else is doing this, so i will too." if someone presents more evidence of something, logical evidence, of course i will believe them. if it was faulty evidence, no i wouldn't have formed my own opinion about it. everyone else obviously thought that evidence was logical also, because they "jumped off the bandwagon." or are we all mindless?

why else did i take my vote OFF of you? because i read what people had said. i AM forming my own opinions. my first post, maybe not so much. my second, yes. why do you think i voted icemuffin? i seriously think you guys need to think about what i said about that, since no one seems to be noticing it at all: why would i vote icemuffin to take notice off of me? that doesn't make any sense. in a game like this, it is crucial to keep posts down. why would i make a new post voting for someone different so i would take notice OFF of me? if i wanted notice off of me, i wouldn't have voted again at all.

i guess i never further explained why i voted icemuffin, so that is partially my fault. i voted for him because one of them always said the same thing as EVERYONE else had said. it was repeated information, with nothing new to give. if you look at his posts, he often quotes other people of what they have to say and agrees with them (obviously, the most intelligent people). but doesn't really say more than "i agree with you. i agree with you. i agree with you. i agree with you and i'm gonna say what you just said and paraphrase it." (read post 33 and 40- lots of recycled statements) i find that fluff and a bit suspicious.

This is IcemanE. I only have time for a quick question for the mod and will make a much more comprehensive analysis post soon, if the answer to the question I'm about to ask is no. I believe NAJD has already been lynched, with maxwell's being the hammer vote: Am I correct?

post 19 was one of the first reasons i voted for him- he could have condensed all his posting into one, but didn't. why not? even if he wasn't sure what was going on. posting into one would have saved a post. a comprehensive analysis.. isn't that what everyone has been saying? isn't that what his own partner said to do? to put all your analysis into one document and then post later on. yet he just posted the question. i found that suspicious, and that's why i voted for him.

these are all the reasons i voted for icemuffin. however, because of killa7's most recent post, i think it's much better we vote him off. he's contributing nothing at all and filling up the post count. whether he be mafia or not, he is wasting space and bringing the rest of us closer to a mafia kill. and for little content posts that don't even make sense. so that's why i am voting killa7 now.

[strife220]

That's 6 votes on K7 - the same number that was on NAJ earlier. Given how useless his last post was, I have no reason to take it off. If these 6 votes stay on him for a few more hours, he will be the leader of the 'who's lynched at end of D1' boards. The only way he Wouldn't be the lynch is if Maxwell, NAJ, or someone else builds up to 7 votes.

Given that the game is nightless, and scum Only get to kill every 10 pages, I will restate the importance of not posting very often. The less town talks here, the better. I'd go as far as saying that it's a better idea to talk less and lynch based on less information than it is to talk more and have better informed lynches.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. You should

never

lynch like this, even in a game set up like this. We still need to lynch informedly, but if people just make longer posts as opposed to shorter posts at the end of the day. We should talk

more

in fewer posts, we should not talk less by any stretch of the imagination.

FoS: strife

Lynching randomly would actually give town >90% chance to win, because scum would never get to NK. Theoretically it's an awesome idea, but too tough to implicate. It's merely meant to show the power of Not posting. I don't mean post little as in post like K7. I mean say more in fewer posts.

I think everybody gets the point by now, however, since most people aren't posting needlessly.

[ting =)]

Hmm. Okay, I was thinking about this, and I think it's better if I explain some things now so that we can decide what we do about it, instead of hoping that the scum don't realize it too.

My view on scum posting rates is that they'll probably post a lot early in the game, to accelerate us towards the 250 post mark, but slow down significantly around 50 posts or so to avoid the 100 post instant kill.

This makes lurking in the late game a more significant tell and definitely something to watch for.

NO. There's something about the game mechanics you're not getting, but I can't tell you why, because then it'll be a Cassandra prophecy.

Scum will

not

lurk at endgame, because THE SCUM AUTO WIN AT LYLO. They can just spam bump the thread to 250 posts and kill a townie. We can't do anything about it because:

At the end of each day,

whoever has had the most votes on them for the longest time will be lynched

even if that person already has a majority of votes on them before deadline.

Essentially, this is why:

Lynching randomly would actually give town >90% chance to win, because scum would never get to NK.

is wrong. I know I've said it before, but I was hoping the scum wouldn't realize that:

THE MAFIA BECOME DAY VIGS WHEN WE HIT PAGE 3.

They have 200 posts total between them. As soon as we break the 50 posts barrier, they can set off their kill at any time and we can't stop it. If they do that at lylo, they win. They can't do it too early because we'll have enough days remaining to lynch both of them.

Now, ONE MAFIA NK IS INEVITABLE.

Even if everyone had been posting at a rate of a post every 3 real time days,(minimum number of posts) by the time we hit lylo,(day 8 at the earliest) the total game posts would have been around ~100 posts. The mafia would have have used up around 13 posts in that time each - they can still spam win.

The point I'm trying to bring across, is that MINIMAL POSTING IS NOT THE CORRECT WAY TO GO WITH THIS SETUP.

• It will
  not
  achieve anything - it won't prevent the nk.
  
• If everyone starts lurking, we won't be able to find scum - and that's the most important thing - we find scum before we hit lylo. If everyone uses the deadline as an excuse to lurk, we won't be able to do that.

Okay, so having established that we can't avoid an nk, and that posting less is the most uber wrongest response: (just to clarify, I'm not saying to 'give' the mafia an nk, they always had one in the books, whether they realized it or not.)

I propose that we

control

when

the nk happens, and

how many posts everyone has left

when it happens.

We can do this by implementing a constant rate of posting to stick with.
Example:

I'm not going to show the numbers, but if you go with 1 post per real time day, the scum get their first nk at the end of the 5th game day. They only get that one nk. The last 3 players will go into lylo with a total of only 325 posts, or 175 posts between all of them to kill.

Okay, so this will

force

the mafia nk to happen at the end of the 5th day. This resets the nk counter to 250 at the day before lylo. The mafia total post remaining will be 150 - they can no longer spam win at lylo.

---

Note that 1 post per day is just an example. I'm bringing this up because at the rate we're posting right now, we can't stop a lylo spam win. Obviously, this is all moot if we manage to lynch a scum, which would be the best way to deal with this.

Now, this isn't uber important, so

if everyone chooses to ignore this and just play on, I'm okay with that, but you have to remember that we'll need to win 1 day before lylo --> lylo = dead.

Just keep that in mind.

I'm iffy about that because of the low information content there'll be. Yes, shortening our deadline by 1 is about the same as recieving one nk, but this way we actually have more information to catch scum, and they can't surprise kill.


------

I'm sorry that this is long, I tried to make it fairly indepth so that we won't have to waste posts going back and forth over details later. I don't have the time to now to actually figure out the rate at which we should post though. The scenario with 1 post a day per player works, but there's probably a more ideal solution. Someone checking the numbers might be nice. I'll post next in 24 hours. Thoughts?

------

@Maxwell.
I like that you're putting out your own thoughts now. I still don't like your defense, but I like that you're trying to contribute.

[xyzzy]

You may paraphrase PMs sent between hydra heads. No direct quoting.

Votecount 1-4

Now a JDodge: Lawrencelot-Muerrto
killa seven: strife220, Green Cow, Targomoyf, ting =), icemuffin, maxwellhouse
maxwellhouse: Now a JDodge, StrangerCoug, killa seven

Not voting: ShadowGirl, kabenon007

[Icemuffin]

Ok muf here. Havnt posted in a while and my apologies due to being very busy. This will be my only post for at least another 48 hours. Should be better by the weekend to post daily.

I apologize for not posting - my phone and internet went out for some inexplicable reason and it took a few days before a repairmen came to fix it - a reread shall be coming soon.

Well we are looking at k7 for not posting enough however this is shadows only post for the game. Since k7 is on L-1 i think should lynch him and look into shadow tomorrow cause shadows contributed ABSOULUTLY NOTHING.

i guess i never further explained why i voted icemuffin, so that is partially my fault. i voted for him because one of them always said the same thing as EVERYONE else had said. it was repeated information, with nothing new to give. if you look at his posts, he often quotes other people of what they have to say and agrees with them (obviously, the most intelligent people). but doesn't really say more than "i agree with you. i agree with you. i agree with you. i agree with you and i'm gonna say what you just said and paraphrase it." (read post 33 and 40- lots of recycled statements) i find that fluff and a bit suspicious.

Well as well your reasoning is poor and you seem more desperate to give reasons for voting us. First of all please quote out repeated info. Remember my first post set out heaps of info for everyone to look at so thats where your point fails. However even though you havnt voted on the best reasoning, im preety sure your town due to ur massive posts and attempt to contribute towards the town.

Now about post rates, i think we should just not think about them as much because it all seems to complicated and I personally am feeling pressured into posting in massive groups when i dont have the necessary time.

[kabenon007]

I am sorry I haven't been able to post, work is kicking my ass. I work in a freezer twelve hours a day, that is why I made the obligatory post: I never know when I'll be awake enough to actually contribute, which is unfortunate, given this game's fast pace and huge posts.

MOD: I would rather have someone who has more regular access to the site take my place, as I cannot give the attention this game deserves. I request a replacement.