Minvitational 8 - OVER before 611

[mith]

Vote Count 7

Oman[4] (Erg0, vollkan, shaft.ed, Shanba)
cicero[2] (Adel, Oman)
Erg0[2] (cicero, Simenon)
Shanba[2] (curiouskarmadog, Jitsu)
shaft.ed[1] (The Fonz)
Simenon[1] (BillyTwilight)


Not Voting[0]

[Jitsu]

OK so the consensus seems to be that Adel hasn't played this conservative before. I don't know what that means, but it obviously has my attention.

I also agree Shanba, Jitsu, Billy and Erg0 are not contributing enough.

Holy crap, can we please lynch him already?

So it doesn't bother you when a player's style changes 180 degrees from their norm?

Bother is a pretty strong word here, Shaft.ed. Adel's different style in this game is definitely something to keep an eye on, but if Adel's not doing anything scummy, where's the problem? I value meta as much as the next guy, but it sounds like you are saying we should find Adel suspicious simply because she is behaving differently from her meta. Has Adel done anything so far in this game that has triggered your scumdar?

Given the level of competition here and people's general familiarity with each other's meta, I'm not surprised that some people are changing their playstyles.

[shaft.ed]

Jitsu, I have a very bad record of picking scum on Day 1. I think basing my lines of suspicion on day 1 primarily on existing metas works more effectively for me than trying to pull out minute scumtells from the low information environment of D1. From the games I've played with her Adel has a more reserved feel as scum than as town, but this is so glaringly obvious I don't know what to make of it.

Has Adel done anything so far in this game that has triggered your scumdar?

If she had I'd have voted her.

[Oman]

Jesus, I'm awesome at mafia.

Unvote: Vollkan, Vote: Shanba

TL;DR version.

I'm sorry, I don't understand your abbreviations.

"Too long; Didn't Read."

In other words, Oman didn't read your post, but assumed your subsequent vote must be correct.

I'll get to your post in a bit, Jitsu.

Bullshit. I read it all. You want to tell me what I am and aren't reading now?

[cicero]

I still don't get what is so "conservative" about Adel's play. It feels a bit similar to the way she played when I was scum with her in Guardian's IPick. She posts less than she does as town and her posting feels cautious. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of the Adel school of mafia play. I dont like dishonest townies. People should quit doing disingenuous things in order to "gauge for reactions". If you play honestly, people will eventually smell the honest. That's how townies win. At the moment Adel smells scummy to me. Note my vote hasnt moved. Maybe it is just because she is, yet again, playing in a manner that attempts to confound. But I don't really care. If it feels and smells scummy to me, I'm voting for it. More often than not I'm correct.

[Simenon]

Up until this point, I've found Simenon's tactics fairly legit, but I'm wondering why he reversed himself in 62 about the wagon never really being a joke, just after he said it started out as one?

It's never a joke. It used humor, sure, but because I've found humor to be an effective method of provoking posts.

Simenon's 93 is a bit snarky and evasive, but even thought he has a good question in there, but I'm puzzled why in 95 he gave up on the Cicero wagon before some of the other players weigh in -- and what is the reason for switching to Erg0 (as opposed to unvoting or choosing someone else). (After reading a bit more, I see Adel said basically said the same thing in 100.)

I'm always snarky. It's really getting to be a problem. It made Oman explode in the above post.
The cicero wagon seemed to have served its purpose. We are already on page eight, which is a good sign.

Hmmm, so in Shaft.ed's 124, we find that the allegation that Oman pushing the wagon was a joke. This seems in contrast to the serious sounding explanation he gave in 92. How does 131 fit into this? Was this an honest joke or an attempt to cast suspicion that failed? I'm not sure.

Good catch, but it his response was pretty deadpan.

In other news

Unvote
Vote Shanba

1. The erg0 wagon refuses to budge.
2. The recent perk in erg0's posting has made me change my mind slightly
3. There is a legitimate movement towards Shanba
4. Shanba is being overly brief in this game. Either he's not quite focussed, in which case the pressure will help he get into the game, or there is something else there, in which case the wagon should be explored.

[Adel]

Maybe it is just because she is, yet again, playing in a manner that attempts to confound. But I don't really care. If it feels and smells scummy to me, I'm voting for it. More often than not I'm correct.

First, it sounds like you can quantify the power of your scum smelling nose. Please share your proof that you really can smell scum more often than most.
Secondly, what have I done in this game that is scummy?
Third, how I am playing "in a manner that attempts to confound"?
By not attempting to confound am I attempting to confound?

You aren't a fan of the style of play you are used to me exhibiting... would you rather I clearly played in a devious and underhanded way?

[Oman]

Unvote Vote Shanba

Hopefully we can shift this wagon above mine

[shaft.ed]

By not attempting to confound am I attempting to confound?

I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate

In other news, Shanba hasn't been on site since Friday.

Can we please get a prod?

[vollkan]

There are are a few interesting things about the Cicero wagon. When the wagon was starting to build, it occurred to me pretty quickly that Simenon was just trolling for a reaction. (Guardian and Oman did this to an extent in Mafia in Vollville on Day 1.) Cicero's response in 40 arouses my curiosity, particularly in how he declared Simenon's act a weak town tell (and not just "I don't find it scummy"). I can think of a number of interesting interpretations of this. Maybe it's a subtle scum attempt at buddying up a bit to help derail the wagon.

Maybe it's a calculated gambit to see if Simenon and/or Oman will press too hard and overcommit on their case against him.

Maybe it's just a simple attempt to feel Simenon out. The wording here does sound a bit funny -- it's enough to raise my eyebrow and wonder about his intentions though, but I'm not going to jump on him for this alone.

This makes sense, except for the bit I have bolded. I don't see how Cicero saying it was a weak town tell can be read as a gambit to cause Simenon and Oman to potentially overcommit themselves. Maybe you could clarify this?

So it doesn't bother you when a player's style changes 180 degrees from their norm?

Shaft.ed, we can all see perfectly well that Adel is not playing as crazily as she normally does. I can't see why you seem so intent on making so much of it, however. There's nothing inherently pro-scum or pro-town about Adel playing differently, and, short of uncovering some actual rational explanation for why she would play differently, it's not something I think it is helpful to speculate about.

The way you phrase your question, it seems apparent that you are bothered. Hence, would you mind explaining why it is actually bothersome?

[Jitsu]

I still don't get what is so "conservative" about Adel's play. It feels a bit similar to the way she played when I was scum with her in Guardian's IPick. She posts less than she does as town and her posting feels cautious. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of the Adel school of mafia play. I dont like dishonest townies. People should quit doing disingenuous things in order to "gauge for reactions". If you play honestly, people will eventually smell the honest. That's how townies win. At the moment Adel smells scummy to me. Note my vote hasnt moved. Maybe it is just because she is, yet again, playing in a manner that attempts to confound. But I don't really care. If it feels and smells scummy to me, I'm voting for it. More often than not I'm correct.

Look, for what it's worth, Adel's "normal" style is not really for me either. If a lot of people played that way, I'd probably not want to play here, because the games would probably be total chaos. But to be fair to her, Adel's style often gets results and can win games. In both my games with her (and in several more I've read), her self-sacrificing style helped out one or more scum pretty early.

But I think the correct townie move in the case where someone shows a different playstyle is to keep an open mind and evaluate the player based on their activities in the current game in light of the meta (don't forget the meta, just try not to let it dominate your scumdar). I think meta is a useful tool, but IMHO, I think that too often players use it to jump to conclusions. "Player X did Y when her meta says she normally does Z! She must be scum!!" What incentive do people have to improve by changing their playstyles or trying different strategies then? I firmly believe that a townie's most important obligation is to help their team win, within the bounds of ethical play.

Back to the matter at hand. So you say Adel smells scummy here. Is that statement based totally on her acting similarly here as she did (as scum) in Guardian's IPick game, or is there something else factoring in?

[curiouskarmadog]

I hate Day 1s without a Night 0, or maybe I am just insecure about my scum hunting abilities day 1 with little to go on. not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site.

unvote

my last question to shanba still stands though..and you should consider my vote still there.

[cicero]

Back to the matter at hand. So you say Adel smells scummy here. Is that statement based totally on her acting similarly here as she did (as scum) in Guardian's IPick game, or is there something else factoring in?

Well, it is early days so take it with a grain of salt, but yes. It's because her play feels like her play in that game thus far. So I dont find her play incredibly "unusual for Adel" as others seem to. I also think her vote for me was opportunistic, and she clings on to it with poor reasoning, which I believe (but obviously cannot prove) was reasoning she came up with

post hoc

.

First, it sounds like you can quantify the power of your scum smelling nose. Please share your proof that you really can smell scum more often than most.

Certainly I could never demonstrate such a proposition among such august company. And yet I still think my scum nose is pretty good. and getting better every day.

Secondly, what have I done in this game that is scummy?

I've already answered this. Your reasoning and behavior on my wagon and your more cautious lower posting approach.

Third, how I am playing "in a manner that attempts to confound"?
By not attempting to confound am I attempting to confound?

Apparently. You've apparently totally mindfucked shaft.ed somehow.

[Jitsu]

This makes sense, except for the bit I have bolded. I don't see how Cicero saying it was a weak town tell can be read as a gambit to cause Simenon and Oman to potentially overcommit themselves. Maybe you could clarify this?

I probably didn't explain it very well. Gambit was probably too strong of a word.

I think that sometimes, when someone is pushing a case on you, one way to help disrupt it is to agree with them about something (legitimately or not). For example, you may agree with some of the points against you, if they are valid. If done genuinely as town, it shows you are level-headed and fair, and as scum, I think it might help you

look as if

you were level-headed and fair.

Either way, I think in some cases, it can throw a bit of an obstacle in the path of the person pushing the case against you. And I think how the person pushing the case gets around that obstacle has the potential to be telling. A desperate scum sensing his/her mislynch prey getting away could be tempted to oversell the case.

Perhaps in this game, we are less likely to have desperate scum (since many of the players here are seasoned veterans), but I think the general observation still holds water.

[cicero]

Jitsu, your posts thus far seem to have a lot of "it could be this" or it "could be that". Would you say that's a fair assessment?

[Jitsu]

I hate Day 1s without a Night 0, or maybe I am just insecure about my scum hunting abilities day 1 with little to go on. not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site.

unvote

my last question to shanba still stands though..and you should consider my vote still there.

I'll tell you why I think the wagon is shifting to Shanba. At a time when there was discussion going on between Simenon and Cicero, Shanba quietly put a fourth vote on

Oman

, who hasn't acted very scummy so far this game, for the alleged reason that

Shanba didn't like Cicero's defense of himself

. That's so bizarre that I want to hear what Shanba's reasoning is for that, and I think he needs some pressure. I'll be more than happy to unvote if he can explain his logic to us.

So you still want to hear his reason, but you are unvoting and saying that Shanba should still consider your vote still there? What's up with that? He was only at four votes by my count. I highly doubt that he was in any danger of being quicklynched.

I can understand if someone needs to be away for a bit (heck, I just was), but Shanba hasn't even said much when he

has

posted.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, your posts thus far seem to have a lot of "it could be this" or it "could be that". Would you say that's a fair assessment?

Yes, it is.

First, I have far less experience playing mafia than most other people here, and because of that, I tend to doubt myself, even in cases when I should not. I don't think I have the track record yet to establish confidence in my scumhunting ability. And even then, I will probably remain the "judging" type that weighs evidence carefully and comes to a decision more slowly than others.

Second, my playstyle is to be honest and open, and a bit conservative. If I'm not sure something is scummy, I'll say so. But if I am really sure (which admittedly is rare), I'll attack hard. I don't like to say or imply I'm sure of something when I really am not. By understating my certainty a little bit, I still get my opinons out there and on record to help the town, and I make fewer enemies in the bargain. I've found it's a lot easier to get information from people if they don't perceive you as an enemy.

So far, I think this style has worked well for me.

[cicero]

So you were town in both games. No experience as scum, right?

[Jitsu]

So you were town in both games. No experience as scum, right?

Correct. I was a vanilla townie in both.

[Jitsu]

Well, it is early days so take it with a grain of salt, but yes. It's because her play feels like her play in that game thus far. So I dont find her play incredibly "unusual for Adel" as others seem to. I also think her vote for me was opportunistic, and she clings on to it with poor reasoning, which I believe (but obviously cannot prove) was reasoning she came up with

post hoc

.

Can you explain more how she is clinging to her vote with poor reasoning? Is there something specific she said?

[cicero]

Well, it is early days so take it with a grain of salt, but yes. It's because her play feels like her play in that game thus far. So I dont find her play incredibly "unusual for Adel" as others seem to. I also think her vote for me was opportunistic, and she clings on to it with poor reasoning, which I believe (but obviously cannot prove) was reasoning she came up with

post hoc

.

Can you explain more how she is clinging to her vote with poor reasoning? Is there something specific she said?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 60#1106660

Paragraphs 2 and 3.

[shaft.ed]

I think my point about Adel playing conservative is being blown up a bit. I said pretty much all it that it's worth right here:

From the games I've played with her Adel has a more reserved feel as scum than as town, but this is so glaringly obvious I don't know what to make of it.

And I was asking other's opinions because 1) I would like people on record as I feel it is a point of interest to the game and 2) I want to see if I'm over-interperating her play.

I agree with Jitsu's point against CKD:

So you still want to hear his reason, but you are unvoting and saying that Shanba should still consider your vote still there? What's up with that? He was only at four votes by my count. I highly doubt that he was in any danger of being quicklynched.

To unvote at L-3 is a bit strange to me. You know there aren't any wild cards in this game that will come by and hammer out of the ether. Why the concern?

unvote vote: CKD

[The Fonz]

OK so the consensus seems to be that Adel hasn't played this conservative before. I don't know what that means, but it obviously has my attention.

I also agree Shanba, Jitsu, Billy and Erg0 are not contributing enough.

Holy crap, can we please lynch him already?

So it doesn't bother you when a player's style changes 180 degrees from their norm?

It bothers me that you're pointing it out, making it appear significant, but not taking a position on it. It bothers me that you're just echoing other people's calling out of lurkers, especially when you yourself are guilty of egregious lurking in plain sight.

[cicero]

CKD unvotes Shanba because Shanba is absent from the site but still puts a placeholder comment that is basically still an IGMEOY on Shanba, and that makes CKD scummy? I thought it was perfectly sensible and don't agree with Jitsu's point at all.

[shaft.ed]

CKD unvotes Shanba because Shanba is absent from the site but still puts a placeholder comment that is basically still an IGMEOY on Shanba, and that makes CKD scummy? I thought it was perfectly sensible and don't agree with Jitsu's point at all.

I disagree. It's not like he needed the vote for something else, and there is no need for precaution at this point in time. I don't see any need to remove the vote if Shanba is the player that is garnering the most suspicion from him at the time. His comment is also a bit odd to me:

I hate Day 1s without a Night 0, or maybe I am just insecure about my scum hunting abilities day 1 with little to go on. not sure why the wagon is shifting to Shanba if he is not even posting at this site.

First I've seen CKD peg scum on Day 1 of two games. I think he's got a good Day 1 nose (maybe it was just a fluke?). But the "not sure why the wagon is shifting" comment sits wrong with me. It should be noted that he was the first to vote Shanba. And he seems to be getting nervous that a sizable wagon is forming. If he is suspicious of him he shouldn't be worried about it. As I've stated this town has no wildcard that will hammer out of nowhere. And the pressure was what he seemed to want in the first place. Why is he backing off of it?

Also should be noted I messed up my quote tags in my previous post claiming CKD said what Jitsu did.