Mini 607 - Cop Central [GAME OVER!]

[Raging Rabbit]

If we lynch someone today because they have investigations on them and NOT because they are acting scummy, we are removing all traces of scum hunting from the game. One slot is used up.

Fark is both, though.

IF we then all target, say, me, tonight, and I get NK'd...

Assuming your'e town, you won't get NK'd unless the mafia's extemely stupid and decides to save us a misslynch. You keep ignoring that.

IT is better to spread out investigations so that as sanities are revealed, a domino-effect of clearing and not cleaing, confirming and not confirming, happens.

Sanities

won't

be revaled in this method, though, since not enough people will know whether their investigation was true or false, and all the cross information in the world isn't gonna help any when hardly anyone knows if their results even mean anything.

[Korlash]

Sanities won't be revaled in this method, though, since not enough people will know whether their investigation was true or false, and all the cross information in the world isn't gonna help any when hardly anyone knows if their results even mean anything.

not true, lets say I investigated someone who came up guilty tonight. tomorrow if we lynch either tekk or that person for any reason, my sanity becomes fairly clear. Now put this on a wide scale, everyone gets two people who they are basing their sanities off of. We minus the doubles, two innocents two guilties, and we get a hanful of people we can lynch to help prove other's sanities.

Now this is where Skruff's words of wisdom come into play. we then scum hunt amoung them to lynch the right one. And bam, we hit possible scum and help clear 1-2-3 (possibly *crosses fingers*) sanity issues.

And as days go on, more and more possibilities open up. "Double" investigations start turning up new info and lynches/nks help determine them. In theory I would rather have every person have 2 investigations tomorrow, then two people to have 5 each.

Of course a lot of things can go wrong with this. and there is no way everyone will have 2 investigations tomorrow... well... highly unlikely at least...

your problem is your trying to prove many people at once. (I think) Which has just as high a sucess rate as catching a fish with a ball of yarn. Bait is the issue isn't it... ;P

But I think spreading them out is a sure fire way to get "at least 1" cleared up tomorrow with an exponetial number more after that. And, once we have one sanity known, you can expect 1-2 people to be cleared or outed. So out list of scum boils down lower and lower. sanities is not an issue really. 1 or 2 yes, but we don't need everybodies. If I am proven sane, isn't Tekk proven town? Think about it and you'll see that a wide spread pattern combined with good ol' fashioned scum hunting is the best play.

...and the person who targetted Jenter (because it's a known alignment that gives no information tot he town about that player). I am not saying that targetting jenter was scummy, just that it was a bad play.

Ok, nobody knew Jenter was going to die so targeting him cannot be a bad play. unlucky, unhelpful, possible same claim yes. Claiming to have investigated him seems scummy to me, but seriously... That can't be called "bad play" can it?!?!

Oh also before i forget, we can't be forgetting that some of these peopel we clear could be scum fakeclaiming, so jsut because we "prove" so and so is sane, doesn't automatically make him so now does it? Another reason scum tells and scum hunting are a key player in this game.

[Raging Rabbit]

lets say I investigated someone who came up guilty tonight. tomorrow if we lynch either tekk or that person for any reason,

my

sanity becomes fairly clear. Now put this on a wide scale, everyone gets two people who they are basing their sanities off of. We minus the doubles, two innocents two guilties, and we get a

hanful

of people we can lynch to help prove other's sanities.

If, however, we all investigate the same person, there won't be a

handful

of people we can lynch - lynching x will help prove your sanity, lynching y will prove z's sanity and so on - but just

one

person whose lynch helps

everyone

determine their sanities. This means a night of "wasted" results, true, but if even a few of the power cops determine their sanity, it's totally worth it and can break the game. 4 cops (or 3, even 2's a huge esset) in a 12 player setting is a clear town win, after all, even if we waste a night on detemining who's who.

[Korlash]

Ok i get what your saying.

The only real dwnside I see to that one is the scum will be in on it too. So we will have mass info all at once with scum's answer's blended in. So WCS, we "waste" one night, then we follow false leads and end up wasting the next day or two too.

If we spread them out we get them one by one or two by two so it's easier to follow and the player's can be properly questioned.

Aside from mass hysteria and the intermidden scum I find that plan hard to counter actually. I suppose it gives scum more freedom with their NK. We could be all investigating one of the power cops, which loses us one of them. and then you have to factor in the unhelpful town who make mistakes or are just plain too stubborn to follow it. All in all I still think your course of action has a higher chance of failure. Although in theory it sounds nice.

[TDC]

Also, if we receive more than 4 guilty or more than 4 innocent results on him (and at least one of these two things must happen), we know that at least #num-4 of the #num people that have a guilty/innocent must be scum. Any constraint is useful in the long run.

[TDC]

EBWOP: Well, I was a bit fast with the "must happen" thing. 9 people will be alive tomorrow, and Skruffs cannot investigate himself.. so strike that bit. Still, if scum have to claim before town we could still end up with more than 4 guilty/innocent claims.

[Aimless]

The more I think about it, the more I think that mass-targeting is a good thing; especially since I'm pretty sure I know how to do it in a way that will prevent us from mislynching on day 2. (I'll explain this bit later, if we agree to the plan.)

A mass targeting means that, by the end of day two (at the latest), we will have everyone divided into two categories: if our target is town, the everyone knows they are either paranoid/insane or naive/sane. If our target is scum, everyone knows they are either paranoid/sane or naive/insane.

The important point here is that doing this completely distinguishes the sane from the insane, which means that as soon as any cop figures out they are useful, they automatically also know which of their night targets was scum; thus, we save the town several possible mislynches arising from the confusion of sanities.

I'm pretty sure that this benefit outweighs the drawback of having fewer investigations spread around.

And, like I said, since I think we can pull it off without needing to waste our lynch tomorrow, I think we should go for it.

[Skruffs]

If we lynch someone today because they have investigations on them and NOT because they are acting scummy, we are removing all traces of scum hunting from the game. One slot is used up.

Fark is both, though.

I'm afraid simply saying that doesn't mean anything to me. Explain how and why.

IF we then all target, say, me, tonight, and I get NK'd...

Assuming your'e town, you won't get NK'd unless the mafia's extemely stupid and decides to save us a misslynch. You keep ignoring that.

So you want to lynch a townie today, direct all the cop investigations tonight, and then lynch me tomorrow? Wow.

By the next day, at least 3, and possibly four (depending on who gets lynched today) cops would be eliminated from the game, and, unless by chance one of the two lynched players ARE scum, nobody's sanities will be confirmed.

Right?
Yes, that's a great plan.

IT is better to spread out investigations so that as sanities are revealed, a domino-effect of clearing and not cleaing, confirming and not confirming, happens.

Sanities

won't

be revaled in this method, though, since not enough people will know whether their investigation was true or false, and all the cross information in the world isn't gonna help any when hardly anyone knows if their results even mean anything.

That's interesting. Because I sort of thought that if I targetted aimless last night, and got a guilty, and then investigated, say, YOU, tonight, and got an innocent, that would 'help' me if, say, you or aimless was nightkilled tonight or lynched tomorrow.

I mean I could be wrong. I can definitely understand why you would want to, say, consolidate all investigations onto one player, to completely minimize the chance of a sane or insane cop hitting scum, though.


Korlash, Perhaps I meant "Unlucky", not "bad", but the results are the same: Unfortunate.
I completely agree with you though about 'cleared' players being scum isclaiming.

RagingRabbit

: Let's say that no scum were investigated last night, ONLY townies were. IF I am also a townie, and every player investigates me, and then lynches me tomorrow, how much closer are we to determining sanities are we?

TDC

: Interesting point made about 4+ similar results equals scum. That is about the ONLY valid point behind everyone investigating a single player, but unless it happens on multiple occasions (which we don't have the time to do) it can't be used to decicively determine if someone is town or scum. Also, we get less investigations each night : By tomorrow there will be 9 investigations able to be revealed or fake claimed. NArrowing scum down to 1 in 5 doesn't help much when there are 3 scum.

Aimless:
Unfnortunately though it ties up all investigations tonight, and the lynch tomorrow, and any information that is gained by cops could be extinguished, since the mafia will know who got 'sane' or 'insane' results on that player, and can NK them before they made a third player. Also, it completely depends on all 4 real cops having targetted both scum and townie.

[Farkshinsoup]

Look, in many mafia games, keeping the power roles hidden is a GOOD IDEA! Why? Because scum will kill those power roles once they know them. I don't think that it's so crazy for me to think that keeping their identities a secret might be a good idea. "Inexcusable"? I don't think so.

But this happens to be an open set up, where having all results in the open is

the only thing the enables power roles to know they're power roles

. What use are 4 good cops if none of them are even sure their results have any value?

Here I am not arguing the point about whether we should have mass claimed. I'm arguing that it is not unreasonable or scummy for me to have suggested it.

And you are implying that if we had not mass claimed, it would have been impossible for anyone to figure out their roles on their own. Clearly, they would have. Now yes, they would have to then contend with convincing everyone that they are who they say they are, but it's not like they never would have figured it out.

It makes sense for your vote on qos to be a pressure vote, but other than that your defense contains mostly appeals to emotion and does little to convince me of your innocence. The "Aimless is a follower" assessment is weak at best.

Please quote examples of how my whole argument is "mostly appeals to emotion." I'd like a chance to refute that.

Now, a little timeline:

1-It is suggested by TDC that we massclaim.
2-I come out against the idea.
3-Skruffs, then Aimless state their suspicion of me for my doubts about mass claiming. Aimless puts a vote on me.
4-Tekk claims that he's investigated me, and found me innocent (which really means nothing at this point)
5-Raging Rabbit claims to have investigated me.
6-His investigation of me comes up innocent.

Later on, when TDC suggests that we lynch one of the 2 players that have 2 investigations on them, Raging Rabbit is all for it. Specifically, lynching me. Not looking for scum first and then lynching me, but getting right down to business.

Why haven't you put your vote on me? You've made it perfectly clear that you have no intention of lynching anyone else. Your vote on QoS is useless as a pressure vote. It seems to be there for show.

I think it's possible that Rabbit saw that I was not only the first one to catch some heat, but that I also had one investigation on me. If he were scum, I would be a great person to fake claim an investigation on. The fact that I investigated Jenter is icing on the cake. Now you can argue that I should be lynched without even having to argue that I'm scum. The fact that a few people find my play suspicious makes it an easier sell.

And you had an innocent result on me, which, if you are scum, would be the right move. These results mean nothing today, so you wouldn't have to worry about that result getting in the way of your lynch, but it will make you look that much more valuable tomorrow, once I turn up town.

I could be wrong about you. It looks more and more like I might catch the lynch today, and when I turn up town I hope you guys will hold him to account.

FoS:Raging Rabbit

[Skruffs]

I believe that the most useful action today is to lynch QoS or the scummiest acting player (Right now, to me, it"s RR but RR is always belligerently inflammatory), and to spread out investigations secretly between all the players involved. If cops want to target the players that already have several investigations on them, they can, and if they want to target a non-investigated player, to spread the net, so to speak, they can.

I think wasting two lynches for no other reason then to *hopefully* confirm one or two sane and insane cops, who will be NK'd the next night anyways, is a complete and terrible disaster waiting to happen.

RagingRabbit, do you remember Exile Mafia? Remember how I had a keen grasp on how the game mechanics worked, and called out one of the scum day one because of the way they were trying to manipulate the town into allowing the scum to decide who would get nominated each night?

Let me put it to you this way:
If mafia doesn't know what plans to mess up, they'll have to devise their own.

[Farkshinsoup]

In other news, I came up with this chart for my own use. It plots out the possible roles that everyone has left based on their N0 investigations:

Tekkactus: Sane, Insane, Naive, Scum
Skruffs: Sane Insane, Paranoid, Scum
Aimless: Sane, Insane, Paranoid, Scum
dRrool89: Sane, Insane, Naive, Scum
Clammy: Sane, Insane, Paranoid, Scum
Korlash: Sane, Insane, Naive, Scum
TDC: Sane, Insane, Naive, Scum
Raging Rabbit: Sane, Insane, Naive, Scum
ZeekLTK: Sane, Insane, Naive, Scum
Fark: Insane, Paranoid, Scum
Queen_of_Spades: TBD

Please look this over and let me know if I've got it right. If there's an error, then quote it and fix it.

I'd also like to point out once again that there are 3 players (drool, queen and Raging Rabbit) who were not investigated last night. I find it interesting that Raging Rabbit's proposal would keep him from being investigated for the first 2 nights of the game. Unless, of course, he's willing to volunteer as the Day 2 lynch/investigation target.

[Farkshinsoup]

I think wasting two lynches for no other reason then to *hopefully* confirm one or two sane and insane cops, who will be NK'd the next night anyways, is a complete and terrible disaster waiting to happen.

QFT

[TDC]

it can't be used to decicively determine if someone is town or scum.

Of course not, just thought it was worth mentioning. It sounded much better before I noticed that you can't investigate yourself, and hence we would only have 8 results.
While I see your problems with "arranged" investigation, they also have the big advantage that scum can't decide on whom they can claim an investigation. This is probably not that important now, because we don't really know where we're going either, but we'll probably want to assign investigations tomorrow.

Otherwise I'll just quote myself:

As for tonight: Nobody has investigated drool, Korlash or Raging Rabbit. (Well maybe one of them was investigated by queen_of_spades).
We should make sure that this changes.

Maybe everyone should flip a coin: If it's head investigate one those three, if it isn't do whatever you want?

[TDC]

Fark: Insane, Paranoid, Scum

I find it amusing that you consider the possibility of being scum, but not of being sane. Any reason for that?

[TDC]

EBWOP: Ah right, you were the one with the result on the dead guy. D'oh.

[Farkshinsoup]

Whoops, TDC, we were both wrong:

4 people not investigated,

dRool, Korlash, Raging Rabbit, and Queen_of Spades

[Aimless]

Aimless:
Unfnortunately though it ties up all investigations tonight, and the lynch tomorrow, and any information that is gained by cops could be extinguished, since the mafia will know who got 'sane' or 'insane' results on that player, and can NK them before they made a third player. Also, it completely depends on all 4 real cops having targetted both scum and townie.

You are being obtuse.

The point of this is that if

everyone

has investigated someone of known alignment, then we can distinguish between the sane and the insane. This is important, because it helps prevents mislynches later.

However, it does not

yet

distinguish between the useful and useless cops. The only way to distinguish between useful and useless is a useful cop will get different results for scum and town. Thus, the mass investigation doesn't help scum, because it doesn't tell them who is useful.

However, when any given cop later determines his usefulness, we are ahead, because that cop then immediately knows his sanity, and thus which of the players he investigated is indeed scum. In this instance, the town discovers the useful cop at exactly the same moment as the scum do, and at the same time discover a scum. 1-1 trades are good for the town.

Of course, I'm pretty sure that you know all of this already, and are only arguing against it in an attempt to confuse the town.

[Aimless]

Unofficial Vote Count:

Tekk(2): Korlash, Zeek
Fark(2): Aimless, drool
QoS(2): Fark, RR
Not Voting(5): clammy, Skruffs, Tekk, QoS, TDC

Did I miss anyone?

[Skruffs]

The point of this is that if

everyone

has investigated someone of known alignment, then we can distinguish between the sane and the insane. This is important, because it helps prevents mislynches later.

While this may be true, it is also true if all the player investigate other players. If all the players are investigated, then it is far mroe likely that a wider number of scum will be caught, and scum will be forced to kill players that useful player may have already investigated, which then forces scsum to reveal information to the town. Simply knowing who is sane vs insane does not really help, unless those sane and insane players are actually targetting other players, which you and RR's plan completely eliminated for 1/3 of our initial time slot.

However, it does not

yet

distinguish between the useful and useless cops. The only way to distinguish between useful and useless is a useful cop will get different results for scum and town. Thus, the mass investigation doesn't help scum, because it doesn't tell them who is useful.

You say this, and yet you want all fo the cops, to target one player, reducing the number of possibly useful investigations down to... 1, lynching that player anyways, reducing them to 0, and then (repeat cycle)

However, when any given cop later determines his usefulness, we are ahead, because that cop then immediately knows his sanity, and thus which of the players he investigated is indeed scum. In this instance, the town discovers the useful cop at exactly the same moment as the scum do, and at the same time discover a scum. 1-1 trades are good for the town.

The thing is, when *exactly* do those given cops have their usefullness determined? My plan would potentially have a guilty result in the air by the beginning of day 2. Your plan doesn't become 'effective' until the beginning of day three, which would also be lylo.

You are also either ignoring or intentionally leaving out the chance that sucm will fake claim. Would you rather have a cop claiming an innocent and a guilty on two players day 2, or a cop claiming to have an innocent and a guilty on two players, day 3, when we are lylo?

Of course, I'm pretty sure that you know all of this already, and are only arguing against it in an attempt to confuse the town.

I'm not sure what the point of this is. You are trying to lead the town into making themselves useless until the scum can kill the useful ones off, and I'm the one being misleading.

Sure.

[ZeekLTK]

You are being obtuse.

The point of this is that if everyone has investigated someone of known alignment, then we can distinguish between the sane and the insane. This is important, because it helps prevents mislynches later.

However, it does not yet distinguish between the useful and useless cops. The only way to distinguish between useful and useless is a useful cop will get different results for scum and town. Thus, the mass investigation doesn't help scum, because it doesn't tell them who is useful.

However, when any given cop later determines his usefulness, we are ahead, because that cop then immediately knows his sanity, and thus which of the players he investigated is indeed scum. In this instance, the town discovers the useful cop at exactly the same moment as the scum do, and at the same time discover a scum. 1-1 trades are good for the town.

This is all correct.

Of course, I'm pretty sure that you know all of this already, and are only arguing against it in an attempt to confuse the town.

This was my whole point about him earlier.

And this is why we should all investigate Skruffs as the "mass investigation".

[Raging Rabbit]

I'm afraid simply saying that doesn't mean anything to me. Explain how and why.

Aimless already did, and I already said I agree with most of his analysis.

So you want to lynch a townie today, direct all the cop investigations tonight, and then lynch me tomorrow? Wow.

One heck of a loaded question (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... d_Question). Yes, I obviously only want to lynch Fark since I know he's a townie...

By the next day, at least 3, and possibly four (depending on who gets lynched today) cops would be eliminated from the game...

That's the worst case scenario, which is no different than the worst case scenario of any other plan. Misslynches tend to lead to the death of townies, unfortunately. I find you and Fark the scummiest, and would advocate your lynch even if the town decides againt mass-targeting, so it's not like I'm comprimising anything.

... and, unless by chance one of the two lynched players ARE scum, nobody's sanities will be confirmed.

Even if tommorow's lynch turns out innocent, everyone will still have two other investigations by day 3, either of which can lead to an opposite result and thus having a cop figure out a sanity.

That's interesting. Because I sort of thought that if I targetted aimless last night, and got a guilty, and then investigated, say, YOU, tonight, and got an innocent, that would 'help' me if, say, you or aimless was nightkilled tonight or lynched tomorrow.

I mean I could be wrong.

No, you're absolutely right. Know what'll be even better? If the entire town, and

not just you

, targeted someone who'll then get lynched, and hopefully at least two of the power cops get an opposite result on one of the other two nights, which'll 'help' them.

Let's say that no scum were investigated last night, ONLY townies were. IF I am also a townie, and every player investigates me, and then lynches me tomorrow, how much closer are we to determining sanities are we?

Well, if:
a) You're town
b) Fark's town
c)

only

townies were investigated night 1
d)

only

townies will be investigated night 3,
Then we aren't any closer. How likely is that, exactly?

any information that is gained by cops could be extinguished, since the mafia will know who got 'sane' or 'insane' results on that player, and can NK them before they made a third player.

You have a point here, so here's a tweak:

We all investigate the same person tonight, then lynch him tommorow

without reavealing our results

. Scum have no idea which cops are useful and which aren't, and NK randomly. Then on day 3 we mass claim both our results, hopefully trapping scum who'll have very little info to base their false claims on. How's that for a plan?

Also, it completely depends on all 4 real cops having targetted both scum and townie.

Untrue, two will suffice. Also, what use is the extra investigation for those 4 useful cops if none if their targets get killed? How are they supposed to ever figure out their sanity before it's too late?

[queen_of_spades]

Hi people

I've been online during the past few days. i've got the flu, some bug or something (real life stuff).

Im not lurking and I will cooperate from now on. Sorry about all the trouble.

Anyway, since you all agreed on mass claim: I got a guilty result on Aimless.


Again, sorry for the trouble

[Aimless]

The thing is, when *exactly* do those given cops have their usefullness determined? My plan would potentially have a guilty result in the air by the beginning of day 2. Your plan doesn't become 'effective' until the beginning of day three, which would also be lylo.

This is the only objection you made that stands up to scrutiny.

If we mislynch today and mass-target/lynch a townie tomorrow, we are indeed in LYLO, and the information we will have gained becomes hard to use, since it only takes one fake result from scum to hurt us.

However

, I'm not actually proposing that we mass-target/lynch a townie tomorrow. The answer to your question of "when do those cops have their usefulness determined" is at dawn of day two, with no need to lynch our target. (Details on how to make this work will come later, if the town agrees to it.)

There's still a little risk involved, but it's far less this way.

Besides,

your

way isn't risk-free either. If the town scatters its votes around, we'll at the least get results on everyone, but the town doesn't have much of a way of knowing what those results mean. As TDC said earlier, we run into this problem, over and over:

Player A gets a guilty on B and and innocent on C. Which of the three is scum?

Thus, even figuring out a single result has, as it's worst case scenario, two mislynches. Granted, the situation is not quite so dire as this; cross investigations will bear out eventually - but it will take

time

. And, time is against the town. My way is faster.

Besides, if everyone knows their sanity by tomorrow morning, the odds are high that at least one of the N1 investigations will bear useful fruit.

[Aimless]

I've been online during the past few days. i've got the flu, some bug or something (real life stuff).

The flu is a valid excuse in my book. My apologies for calling you useless earlier.

[queen_of_spades]

I've been online during the past few days. i've got the flu, some bug or something (real life stuff).

The flu is a valid excuse in my book. My apologies for calling you useless earlier.

Bah, it is only fair. I would have done the same