Mini 599: Rwandan Genocide - Game Over

[dahill1]

Wait, so the Tutsi Leader is a one-shot vig and one-shot RB.

right

The Hutu leader's can investigate and reveal a Tutsi role to a random Hutu, as in back to the Leader themselves?

no, they don't pick who to investigate. think of it as pushing a button. if both Hutu leaders push the button on the same night, then a random Tutsi is revealed to a random Hutu.

The Tutsi Leader can NK and RB another Tutsi?

not sure on this one

[armlx]

Gosh, what don't you all understand about this?

There are only going to be 2 nightkills maximum this game. Read the roles, there's only 2 one shot vig kills. Only one of those is anti-town.

[Natirasha]

This setup is quite confusing and one-sided, it seems.

[Voodo]

Not really. We don't know who the Tutsis are, plus we don't know who the other Hutus are. So unless we have solid evidence, we could be lynching a Tutsi or a Hutu.

[armlx]

Also, another thing to note is the general should NEVER use his NK. We lose nothing by just lynching instead of NKing, and the general wins an end game vs. 1 Tutsi.

[SleepyPanda]

Oh, I never played in this type of game before. Didn't understand the one-shot thing, but I do now.

I agree then that the not lynching first two days seems to be a good idea. And if I understand correctly, the regular Tutsi know who their partners are, but they are not informed on who is the Tutsi leader and vice versa. If so, then this seems extremely easy for town. Tutsi leader is as clueless as everyone else and the chances of hitting a rally leader is really low.

Yay, let's celebrate some peace~

[chaotic_diablo]

unvote

vote noylnch

[dahill1]

unvote vote no lynch

[armlx]

K, remember:

Both rallying roles MUST rally tonight. The general must NOT kill.

Vote No Lynch

[SleepyPanda]

Whoops, forgot my

Vote: No lynch

[TDC]

I agree that the play for today is obvious:
No Lynch, General doesn't do anything, both leaders rally.

vote: No Lynch

For tomorrow however, I'd like to clarify some things - I think the role descriptions are a bit ambigous.

Mod: Can the Tutsi Leader kill and block in the same night?
If the Tutsi Leader night kills the Hutu that was supposed to get the investigation result - do you choose someone else?
Could the "random Hutu" that gets the result be one of the leaders?

I think discussing what we do on D2 today will only help the Tutsi, so we should do that tomorrow,

but I'd suggest that nobody claims until we've decided that we want a claim tomorrow.

There might be scenarios where another No Lynch is the better choice.

[armlx]

No one claims roles tomorrow. The only thing that gets claimed tomorrow is the "investigation" result.

[ShadowLurker]

The First Vote Count

Natirasha

(2) - Natirasha, Xanatos Roulette

Xanatos Roulette

(1) - pickemgenius

SleepyPanda

(1) - PBuG

No Lynch

(6) - armlx, roffman, chaotic_diablo, dahill1, SleepyPanda, TDC

Not Voting

(2) - Grimmy, Voodo

[ShadowLurker]

Somehow, the casualty count hasn't exploded since the genocide begun. It appears that people are organizing for a big strike... More and more flee the country or enter hiding each day. Tensions are building, and will come to a breaking point soon... It is now night.

You have 72 hours to get your actions in. Everyone has posted except for Grimmy who will have 48 hours to pick up his Role PM or be replaced.

[ShadowLurker]

Mod: Can the Tutsi Leader kill and block in the same night?
If the Tutsi Leader night kills the Hutu that was supposed to get the investigation result - do you choose someone else?
Could the "random Hutu" that gets the result be one of the leaders?

No
No
No

I ain't goin' to rehab

[ShadowLurker]

Screams were heard during the night. The home of

armlx

, who lived in a primarily Tutsi neighborohod, was burned down. armlx was a plain old Hutu citizen. The news of this is quickly distributed by radio and the Hutu are angry. The Tutsi shall pay for this!

With 11 alive it is 6 to massacre.

[roffman]

poor tutsi general, missed completely. So who got who revealed?

[TDC]

Okay then, the Tutsi have no nightkill left, so whoever has a result (if it wasn't armlx), he cannot die tonight.

Outing him now however, would confirm him as non-leader and slightly increase the Tutsi chances to block our second investigation.

I therefore suggest we go to night with no lynch again and then get all investigation claims in tomorrow.

[armlx]

Bah. Well, not really, I kinda expected that.

[SleepyPanda]

Okay then, the Tutsi have no nightkill left, so whoever has a result (if it wasn't armlx), he cannot die tonight.

Outing him now however, would confirm him as non-leader and slightly increase the Tutsi chances to block our second investigation.

I therefore suggest we go to night with no lynch again and then get all investigation claims in tomorrow.

/agree

Vote no lynch

[TDC]

Hm, I just had a second thought, and I'd like to ask the mod:

Is it possible that the SAME Tutsi is revealed twice?

Hadn't thought about the possibility, but this might chance things..
I'm working out the numbers at the moment.

[TDC]

EBWOP: change

[TDC]

Sorry for the triple-post..

One of five possible receivers from last night is dead, so we have a chance of 80% that we have a result today.
If we don't have a result, then no lynch doesn't matter.

So I'll work under the assumption that we do have a result.
If we don't ask for the result, there is a 3 out of 7 chance that someone who's part of the investigation is blocked. If we do get a second result, we have 75% chance that it is on a different Tutsi. 4/7*3/4 = 12/28 = roughly 43%.

If we do ask for a result, there are two possibilites:
a) We lynch right:
If the Tutsi block someone else, they have a chance of (2/6+1/7=10/21) to hit someone who's part of the investigation, but the investigation will yield new Tutsi, so:
11/21 = roughly 52% (better than no-lynch!)
b) We lynch wrong:
If we lynch the Hutu who had the result last night, the block chance increases to 50% and we might still get the same result again for a total chance of 1/2*3/4 = 3/8 = roughly 37.5%
Assuming a random decision that's (11/21+3/8)/2 = roughly 45% which is slightly better than no-lynch.

Obviously my previous plan stands if we're guaranteed a different investigation.

[roffman]

there is also the fact that the revealed hutsi could be the general, making role blocking a moot point

[TDC]

I assume you mean Tutsi

Thanks, had overlooked that.
If he's the one we get a new result no matter what.
He's one of 4 Tutsi, so case a) looks like this:
1/4 + 3/4*11/21 = roughly 64%.

Combined with b) as of random decision: ~ 51% which is now much better than no-lynch.


Let's see whether that changes anything if we're guaranteed different investigations:
No-lynch 4/7 = 57%
a) also 64%
b) 50%
random decision -> 57%

So in that case it's a toss up now.