mini #585 - A Tempest Has Formed (Over), Thanks Patrick!!

[iamausername]

I'm not a big fan of rundowns in general, especially organized mass ones. I just don't find them all that productive. Also, I almost never think about who's "most townly"--my focus is always on who's most suspicious.

Actually, people stating who they think is the most townly could prove to be useful later, when scum is lynched or NK'ed by the vigilante. Scum may have stated their partner like that, if they were stupid enough. But you do have a point. This is scum-hunting.

It also holds a big sign above someone's head saying "Scum, here's your night kill!" I really don't think the potential positives (which, as you say, only apply if the scum are stupid, and it's always best to assume they aren't) outweigh the potential negatives.

I leaning towards Elias because he is definitely experienced, (2128 posts!), and his scum record is considerably high and has been scum 11 times (

not like it has anything to do with this game, but hey, it might!

). IC's usually won't lurk like that. I'm not sure at all, but if there is one scum in those group of lurkers, then I'd say Elias.

I'm with you on the anti-lurker feelings, but singling out Elias, no. ICs lurk all the time. And the bit about his high scum record is the very definition of Gambler's Fallacy. I really don't like the bit I've bolded especially, and the whole post in general seems like an attempt to start a bandwagon based on some really shaky evidence, with enough disclaimers put in for alvinz to weasel out of any responsibility for it.

Not sure it's substantial enough for a vote, but I'm definitely getting a bad vibe from alvinz, and I'll be keeping an eye out for more.

[alvinz95]

I'm with you on the anti-lurker feelings, but singling out Elias, no. ICs lurk all the time. And the bit about his high scum record is the very definition of Gambler's Fallacy. I really don't like the bit I've bolded especially, and the whole post in general seems like an attempt to start a bandwagon based on some really shaky evidence, with enough disclaimers put in for alvinz to weasel out of any responsibility for it.

I don't think Elias is scum at all (lynch all lurkers is a bad policy), but, what I meant was that if there was scum in that group then I would say Elias. I'm not starting a wagon at all. I was just agreeing with Gaspode on the lurker opinion and giving a thought on it. Non of that was "evidence" to support a Elias lynch, because he is BY FAR, not on my scum list, because lynching someone just because they are lurking is not townly at all, especially if they have only posted one thing. The scum record was just tagged in for fun hence the parenthesis and "not like it has anything to do with this game, but hey, it might" which shows that it was merely a small joke. And, in the games I've played in, IC's usually don't lurk, and will give a heads up if they're going to be away. I find that you are getting irritated of such a menial thing like a small comment on lurkers, which isn't scumhunting, but just a thought. And you've misinterpreted some parts like the overall meaning (you think that I'm seriously scum-hunting, like using statistics as evidence, but I'm actually not) which is scummy.

It also holds a big sign above someone's head saying "Scum, here's your night kill!" I really don't think the potential positives (which, as you say, only apply if the scum are stupid, and it's always best to assume they aren't) outweigh the potential negatives.

Did you read my "you have a point"? And can you reexplain "Scum, here's your night kill!" I'm not too sure what you mean. Can't scum determine who's most townly them selves? (if that is what you mean)

small fos: imamausername

[iamausername]

As I said, it's not substantial enough for a vote. I'm just throwing some ideas out to see what the reactions are, because we've still not got a lot to go on so far.

I don't think Elias is scum at all (lynch all lurkers is a bad policy), but, what I meant was that if there was scum in that group then I would say Elias. I'm not starting a wagon at all. I was just agreeing with Gaspode on the lurker opinion and giving a thought on it. Non of that was "evidence" to support a Elias lynch, because he is BY FAR, not on my scum list, because lynching someone just because they are lurking is not townly at all, especially if they have only posted one thing. The scum record was just tagged in for fun hence the parenthesis and "not like it has anything to do with this game, but hey, it might" which shows that it was merely a small joke. And, in the games I've played in, IC's usually don't lurk, and will give a heads up if they're going to be away. I find that you are getting irritated of such a menial thing like a small comment on lurkers, which isn't scumhunting, but just a thought. And you've misinterpreted some parts like the overall meaning (you think that I'm seriously scum-hunting, like using statistics as evidence, but I'm actually not) which is scummy.

I still disagree that Elias is any more likely to be scum than any other lurkers. And your 'joke' didn't read like one to me, but that's completely subjective, and I'll accept that you're probably telling the truth there.

And can you reexplain "Scum, here's your night kill!" I'm not too sure what you mean. Can't scum determine who's most townly them selves? (if that is what you mean)

Well, if there's a certain player that a lot of people say in thread is pro-town, and no one thinks is scummy, scum will be likely to NK them because they'll know for sure that they'll have trouble getting a bandwagon going on that person, and there won't really be any way to link them to the kill. I mean, sure, to a certain extent, they can find the most townie looking players without our help, but people stating it in thread just gives them a more definite idea of their best targets without any particular benefit to the town.

[CoheedCambria09]

[side note] I forget who said it, but they said to get an avatar to help distinguish individual posts, well I did (I think it worked, hopefully). [side note]

[Elias_the_thief]

Ok, I'm basically caught up to some extent. Just some things I noted...

General Note: Bandwagoning early on is NOT scummy. Bandwagons are the only way to get a game going and are an amzing tool for gathering info. Its when someone carries the wagon too far and lynches prematurely that you get problems. If town is smart, they should be able to control the bandwagon and use it to their benefit.

Tajo: more agressive than I saw in my last game with him

CohhedCambria: Great band. Um, seems to be exhibiting some noob behavior, but went a little out of his way to make people realize it was his first game.

Alvinz: Retarded logic when placing me the most likely scum among the lurkers. Yes, I'm experienced so therefore I obviously have nothing to do in RL, and I'm just lurking as an excuse . As to his most recent post, backtrack imo.

Gaspode: content filled and well reasoned posts. leaning town for now.

Evil Gorillaz: lulz, doesnt understand pretentious.

Everyone else: not a good enough read or nothing that stood out to me really.

Sorry to say I've got no concrete idea about whos scum yet. Still formulating opinions.

[Mellowed Man]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this, after a skim:

Alvinz seems to be the either "totally defensive" or "totally agreeing personality."
At the same time, I just have an instinct he is scum.

For example, he says "I'm just saying" whenever he's trying to make a point, as if he's afraid that someone is going to point fingers at him. It bugs me..

Or, he will say I agree with you, on something or the other. He seems to be wanting to make what is nothing into something, and it looks poor =(

I will read back more carefully, and post back later, but for now,

unvote, Vote Alvinz95

[Elias_the_thief]

defensiveness =/= a scumtell.

[CoheedCambria09]

Are you saying mellowed just gave a scum tell, or alvinz?

[ashmite84]

Are you saying mellowed just gave a scum tell, or alvinz?

That alvinz

didn't.

Right?

[ashmite84]

EBWOP: That alvinz didn't

necessarily

.

[Elias_the_thief]

correct, upon correction. Defensiveness is a major strong point of my town play, and I really hate to see people attacked because theyre being defensive, as it inherently necesitates further defense in which case its an infinite cycle likely to lead to a lynch.

The point he makes about him always agreeing could be valid, but then again, hes a fairly new player and "going with the flow" isnt particularly out of the ordinary for new players regardless of alignment.

So yeah, I'm still totally undecided, as I like to wait until I've examined tells from every angle before jumping into a decision.

[Gaspode]

Well, if there's a certain player that a lot of people say in thread is pro-town, and no one thinks is scummy, scum will be likely to NK them because they'll know for sure that they'll have trouble getting a bandwagon going on that person, and there won't really be any way to link them to the kill. I mean, sure, to a certain extent, they can find the most townie looking players without our help, but people stating it in thread just gives them a more definite idea of their best targets without any particular benefit to the town.

And so begins the doc WIFOM.

I will stand by my promise to vote after an Elias post. I liked his post, which scares me a bit, because that could mean he's just very good scum, but I see nothing suspicious about him so far.

For now, I will

vote: alvinz95

. Partly based on Mellowed's logic of being agreeable and careful, also somewhat based on the fact that he seems to be trying to take charge of the game and be extremely helpful. Sometimes this means someone's just a useful pro-town person, but it can also be a scum tactic (especially for someone who's been around for a few months--long enough to be trying different stuff like that, but not long enough to know it is extremely difficult to pull off). Finally, post 101 is one of the worst posts of this game--in addition to many other problems, the quote about "he is BY FAR not on my scum list" is either incredibly stupid townness (starting Elias off on the innocent side of the spectrum, rather than in the middle) or more unnecessary scum friendliness.

[CoheedCambria09]

Avinz95 is catching my suspician as well, mellows logic seems to be heading in the right direction.

Fos: Alvinz95

[alvinz95]

Alvinz seems to be the either "totally defensive" or "totally agreeing personality."
At the same time, I just have an instinct he is scum.

For example, he says "I'm just saying" whenever he's trying to make a point, as if he's afraid that someone is going to point fingers at him. It bugs me..

Or, he will say I agree with you, on something or the other. He seems to be wanting to make what is nothing into something, and it looks poor =(

I've noticed is that everyone is just trying to suspect me by saying, "I have a bad feeling about him...." and uses some evidence that can't totally support a vote. Kind of weird, but I'm fine with that. It seems like scum is trying to lynch me, but that makes no sense because 5 people have said that, so trash that. UNLESS, people are wagoning this idea.

Your logic is also townly play. Being careful is townly. You wouldn't indiscriminately lynch players, and preserving yourself is the goal for all roles while hunting for scum. All players are afraid of getting accused. If no one was, then there would be scummy play everywhere. Say you are the cop (very important role), you definitely want to stay alive since your information is crucial to a town victory. And the "i'm just saying" thing only applies to my small comment on lurkers. (correct me if I'm wrong). The town is always poor on the first day. You get almost nothing, and hope for something.

Your logic to me applies to every role. I like your thinking though. Will be helpful for the town later.

I'm still for Evilgorrilaz as scum right now...

alvinz: Retarded logic when placing me the most likely scum among the lurkers.

You're right. There is no logic in finding scum among lurkers because they don't post.

[populartajo]

You know what's funny? That I think alvinz95 now feels more protown than scum. Why? Mmm, why would he (a relative newbie) would suspect Elias (an experieced player) and for a weak reason? Wouldnt newbie scum avoid this kind of players? Also, I liked his theory where he involved some players and myself. Im involved but it seems a valid scumhunting. So, I dont know where this alvinz wagon come from. (And I know that at the beginning I said something like "There's something that feels wrong in his posts", but with all that has been posted after, I sincerely think he feels more agressive townie that silly scum")
Therefore, I will like to ask some questions:

Avinz95 is catching my suspician as well, mellows logic seems to be heading in the right direction.

Can you elaborate in this, please?

For now, I will vote: alvinz95. Partly based on Mellowed's logic of being agreeable and careful, also somewhat based on the fact that he seems to be trying to take charge of the game and be extremely helpful.

Sometimes this means someone's just a useful pro-town person, but it can also be a scum tactic

(especially for someone who's been around for a few months--long enough to be trying different stuff like that, but not long enough to know it is extremely difficult to pull off). Finally, post 101 is one of the worst posts of this game--in addition to many other problems, the quote about "he is BY FAR not on my scum list"

is either incredibly stupid townness (starting Elias off on the innocent side of the spectrum, rather than in the middle) or more unnecessary scum friendliness.

If your suspcions can go either way, .-null tells FTW-, why are you voting him?

correct, upon correction. Defensiveness is a major strong point of my town and scum play

Fixed.

So yeah, I'm still totally undecided, as I like to wait until I've examined tells from every angle before jumping into a decision

Go,go,go.

Alvinz seems to be the either "totally defensive" or "totally agreeing personality."
At the same time, I just have an instinct he is scum.

Can you qoute some lines where you've found

this personality

? What do you think about Evilgorrilaz)

Tajo: more agressive than I saw in my last game with him

And that means...

Evil Gorillaz: lulz, doesnt understand pretentious

Any comments on the love for bandwagons?

Well, if there's a certain player that a lot of people say in thread is pro-town, and no one thinks is scummy, scum will be likely to NK them because they'll know for sure that they'll have trouble getting a bandwagon going on that person, and there won't really be any way to link them to the kill. I mean, sure, to a certain extent, they can find the most townie looking players without our help, but people stating it in thread just gives them a more definite idea of their best targets without any particular benefit to the town.

Can I add you to my protown L-list?

It is as if he's asking his scum partner to back him up on this. Saying "Do YOU feel it?". Other wise, he's trying to start a wagon with that question, which is scummy considering he started it without even getting on it.

You said it was a stretch, and it is. Its nice scumhunting, though, shows some effort, but it doesnt make sense becuase I sincerely didnt want to start a wagon on you. Just I dont know why I didnt like that post of yours.
I did a quick reread, and a quicked copy-paste, so I may have missed some things.
Conclusions:
I still like my Evilgorrilaz vote, (where is he?)
I dont understand yet the Alvin wagon
I like iamasuername, Marmalade, maybe Gaspode.
I dont like Evilgorrilaz, Mellowed Man.
I think we should prod lurkers.
Neutral about other players.
And we're pretty fcked up becuase Elias is scum. (Thats a joke, guys.)

[alvinz95]

Avinz95 is catching my suspician as well, mellows logic seems to be heading in the right direction.

Can you elaborate in this, please?

Its called a wagon.

[populartajo]

Its called a wagon.

No.

Avinz95 is

catching my suspician as well

, mellows logic seems to be heading in the right direction.

See?

[Evilgorrilaz]

I'm still kind of curious why everyone describes me as "wagon happy".
If I was wagon happy, then I would be on the alvinz wagon, but I am not. Honestly, alvinz's play comes off more like excited townie (power role maybe?).

I dont like Evilgorrilaz, Mellowed Man.

Do you suspect me and mellow to be a scumpair, or just don't like our current play?

[Gaspode]

Reasons for my vote:

-I liked Mellowed Man's reasoning, for the most part.
-Yes, I made two comments about how it can go either way. However, I think the clarifications of both make it clear that the scum angle seems a bit more likely: a) he's probably at the perfect semi-newb state to pull that strategy, and b) stupidity of the caliber I was referring to is rare on this board.
-This game needs to move along, and I had promised a vote. I'd hardly call it a bandwagon--it's two votes and an FOS. It's page five, on Day 1. If things don't start happening, we won't have a majority until Christmas.

[Gaspode]

Sorry for double posting, there were some simu-posts I wanted to respond to.

I'm still kind of curious why everyone describes me as "wagon happy".
If I was wagon happy, then I would be on the alvinz wagon, but I am not.

Admittedly, this is somewhat true, but it's not really useful coming from Evilgorillaz himself, as it creates WIFOM issues.

However, I will make a comment about the "wagon-happiness". I just realized that I was one of the ones who (unintentionally) started that whole conversation! Looking back on his posts, Evilgorrilaz has only voted twice, in five pages. You can't really consider that wagon-happy. I stand by the idea that his first two wagon choices weren't really great ones, but the wagon-happy argument is ridiculous. It seemed like the right description at the time, but I take back the phrase. Call him on bad choices and/or immediately changing styles upon being called out (if you can say it's possible to establish a "style" in three real-life days of play), but don't call him wagon happy.

I agree with Tajo that CC09 was not bandwagoning--he didn't vote, he fos'ed. It's really more just being a newbie sheep than wagoning. Sorry to pick at semantics, but bandwagoning is such a frequently-used term that we can't really afford to have it misused.

[CoheedCambria09]

I think that Alvinz has done some things to catch our eyes, but that the most scummy so far is Evilgorrilaz. I personally think he would be the best person to lynch today, and that is why my vote remains on him.

[Evilgorrilaz]

most scummy so far is Evilgorrilaz

So you still believe me to be the most scummy, even though the main argument against me is now moot?

[Evilgorrilaz]

EDWOP
I have a limited vocabulary, so I don't know if I used moot properly T_T
Also, thats why I don't know pretentious. Blame it on the American education system.

[alvinz95]

I agree with Tajo that CC09 was not bandwagoning--he didn't vote, he fos'ed. It's really more just being a newbie sheep than wagoning. Sorry to pick at semantics, but bandwagoning is such a frequently-used term that we can't really afford to have it misused.

It was merely a joke, hence the random short ness.

[CoheedCambria09]

It's not necessarily the wagon happy reason, I personally just have a bad feeling about you, It's just how I feel.