Mini 574: Portal Mafia: HUGE SUCCESS

[Guardian]

I'm inclined to believe this claim over Guardian's at the moment. I like the fact that Ether was able to surmise that I was the other killer based on the information she drew from the thread and through her own abilities if she is in fact the roleblocker.

I wanted to again point out something odd about Ether going last -- if she was scum considering a RB fake claim, she gets a lot of town cred if she makes up a RB result on whichever of me or Incognito was not the killer, and says "see, I *knew* the other was a killing role". By dint of her having gone last, she hasn't proved she *knew* anything.

Incognito, why do you frame your belief in terms of "either or"? Did you read my previous post? Do you disagree that Miztef or YWN could be scum?

I did read it, yes. I agree that YWN could be scum, but I'm less inclined to believe that Miztef is scum. I was under the impression that investigation immune Godfathers are immune to Cops but we don't have a Cop here; we have a Gunsmith.

Yeah, but the Gunsmith here isn't at all what a gunsmith normally is; I would not be surprised if the godfather isn't what it normally is, should there be one.

I believe a Gunsmith is a more interesting role to include in a mini-game than a Cop because it doesn't give you a flat-out guilty or innocent result. Instead, it forces you to determine that if you find out someone is able to kill is that person most likely aligned on the side of the town or the scum. Therefore I doubt a Godfather would be immune to a Gunsmith's investigation.

I disagree, because of what Gorrad said about

his

gunsmith role in

this

game.

I could however see a Traitor being immune to investigation early on (because he lacks the ability to kill at that point until the Goons die) and that's the instance where I could agree with YWN possibly being scum. But Miztef was just investigated last night and Gorrad found him to be clean. Therefore, I think Miztef is town.

I think it is just as reasonable to believe YWN is scum as Miztef, if they look scummy. Again, need to re-read, maybe our disagreement will be irrelevant if Miztef looks really town-like to me.

Do you find it irrational for me to consider that Ether and I are both town, YWN or Miztef is scum, and you are an SK? If so, why?

See above about YWN and Miztef. I think it's rational for you to consider you and Ether town, yes, if YWN is scum.

Fair.

I think it's irrational for you to consider the possibility of me being an SK. My targets have pretty much gone in line with my suspicions during the day

That's a great thing for a SK to do.

and I was the one who brought up the mass claim idea to circumvent the possibility of town thinking I'm an SK.

[wifom]

If I were an SK, I would not have done that.

[/wifom]

As you say, that's WIFOM.

I wasn't asking if you thought it should seem more likely from my POV that you are a vigilante than a SK, I asked if it was irrational to consider the possibility. I think you've overstepped a little bit, as you haven't really proven how it is irrational to consider it. I'd like you to clarify.

[Ether]

Ether, what did you mean by "other" killing role?

The killer of Jester (obviously not mafia) and presumably Ever (likely lynch candidate).

Ether, what made you target Sir Tornado on Night 1? I noticed in your Post 7 that you mentioned that you could go for a Tornado lynch on D2, but I don't remember you mentioning much about him during D1.

It's because he didn't post. I expect scumbags to send their most under-the-radar member to kill.

I wanted to again point out something odd about Ether going last -- if she was scum considering a RB fake claim, she gets a lot of town cred if she makes up a RB result on whichever of me or Incognito was not the killer, and says "see, I *knew* the other was a killing role". By dint of her having gone last, she hasn't proved she *knew* anything.

I was not trying to prove myself.

I'd say Guardian is scum based on the hider claim alone, but I can't spell this out beyond "MeMe fakeclaimed hider in some game I've never actually read once and Shanba did it too in ScumChat." So, um, let's move along.

What's the plan? Scum-hunt.

Don't bother. We can break this game.

We no-lynch. Guardian hides with me. I block YWN. (Alternatively, I block Incognito, who tries to kill, to show that I'm not blocking Guardian.) Gorrad checks Guardian.

That should clear me outright and establish that either a.) Guardian is scum or b.) there's a gunsmith-immune godfather. Things could get messy if Incognito is a serial killer, but I think that's unlikely; keep in mind that if we successfully lynch mafia and the game's not over yet, he's toast.

[Gorrad]

First of all, I'm going to state once more that my role specifically states that I find those with the ability to kill, not those that actively do kill. Guardian, that should answer a previous point.

Second, I think we can safely rule out a cult at this point, as no roles point to it and, barring recruit-immunity, it would be a cult win at this point.

Now Ether's plan (restated): We no-lynch. Guardian hides with Ether. Ether blocks YWN. (Alternatively, Ether blocks Incognito, who tries to kill, to show that Ether's not blocking Guardian.) Gorrad checks Guardian.

That is, barring a gunsmith-immune godfather, a remarkable plan. I'd like to propose a simple amendment though. Guardian hides with me and Incognito targets Ether, who blocks him. Not a large change, but change enough.

[Ether]

No, Gorrad, that's much worse. The point of Guardian hiding with me is that it clears me. And even if I keep Incognito from killing

me

, that doesn't rule out me being a kill-immune godmother. I'd have to stop him from targetting a third person to prove anything. Honestly, I'd rather block YWN and let the rest of you draw conclusions based off of Gorrad's and M-M's actions consistently going through, but I'll target whomever the town wishes.

Unless I'm missing something, my plan

does

take gunsmith immunity into account as well as anything can. If we establish that I'm blocking YWN, then he's cleared if there's a kill. And Guardian hiding with me clears me.

[Guardian]

Ether, your plan seems to ignore the scenario of Incognito being an SK.

If we no lynch, we could lose up to 3 people tonight -- mafia kill, SK kill, and one of them targeting you, who I'm hiding with. That would, at worst, result in 1-1-1 tomorrow.

I'm not sure me saying if -- and who -- I'm hiding with before we go to night is a good plan at all.

And even if Incognito is a vigilante, and you, Ether, are a mafia roleblocker, for instance, me hinding with you would kill me, and you could block incognito and kill him -- or allow him to kill a townie, and kill another.

I'm very dubious about abandoning scum hunting and no lynching today.

[Gorrad]

Maybe I'm not understanding what Guardian's role does. How does his hiding with you confirm him?

[Guardian]

If I hide with Ether and don't die, she's town.

[Gorrad]

Aha! Right.

[Ether]

Ether, your plan seems to ignore the scenario of Incognito being an SK.

Meh. My list of priorities is {clear/condemn {Ether, Guardian} > doublecheck {Miztef, YWN} > have lynch left over for Incognito just in case}. The scumhunting which you advocate so vocally leads me to believe that Incognito is town.

Is there something in his play which is causing your dissent, or are you just trying to scare us?

If we no lynch, we could lose up to 3 people tonight -- mafia kill, SK kill, and one of them targeting you, who I'm hiding with. That would, at worst, result in 1-1-1 tomorrow.

See above. (I'm not going to bother arguing over whether prisoner's dilemma is fatal to the town or not; I acknowledge that we can't imagine what sorts of horrible serial killer buffs Glork might have thrown in.)

I'm not sure me saying if -- and who -- I'm hiding with before we go to night is a good plan at all.

Of course it's a good plan. I need clearing, so you're gonna clear me. Simple.

And even if Incognito is a vigilante, and you, Ether, are a mafia roleblocker, for instance, me hinding with you would kill me, and you could block incognito and kill him -- or allow him to kill a townie, and kill another.

If you hide with me and die overnight and I survive, then I'll get lynched the next day.

And seriously, if I were a mafia roleblocker, why would I have left Gorrad alone for two nights and M-M for one in the first place?

I'm very dubious about abandoning scum hunting and no lynching today.

Ahahahaha. Sure you are, you poor cornered scumbag.

[Incognito]

I wasn't asking if you thought it should seem more likely from my POV that you are a vigilante than a SK, I asked if it was irrational to consider the possibility. I think you've overstepped a little bit, as you haven't really proven how it is irrational to consider it. I'd like you to clarify.

Yes, it's rational for you to think that. Anytime a person claims vigilante the obvious thought from most people is to think the person is lying and is actually an SK. Is it likely in this case? No. I presented the mass claim idea which could spell trouble for me if I were an SK if we happened to lynch scum today. I could also go into GREAT detail as to why I thought The Jester was scum and why I chose him as my N1 kill and as for scotmany12, I thought he was obvscum so I killed him last night. Again, my intention was to help town eliminate scum and not to survive like an SK would try to.

Seriously can we just lynch Guardian today? It makes absolutely no sense to have two roles in one game that could potentially die if they happen to choose the wrong target. Mach-Mafia, the weak doctor, would die if he protected scum and now Guardian, the hider, would die if he hides behind scum also? If that was the case, you're basically looking at a worst case game scenario that could potentially lead to 4 town NKs in one night if Guardian chose the wrong person to hide behind, Mach-Mafia chose the wrong person to protect, I chose a townie to vig, and the mafia chose a completely different townie to NK. Oh and not to mention the fact that most Day 1 lynches are wrong that means 5 members of the town could have been dead at the start of Day 2 alone? Thereby leaving a possible 4:3 LyLo situation during D2? I find that highly unlikely.

[Ether]

Seriously can we just lynch Guardian today?

I'd be cool with that.

[Incognito]

Seriously can we just lynch Guardian today?

I'd be cool with that.

Awesome.

Vote: Guardian

[Ether]

vote: Guardian

[Guardian]

All that can be counterbalanced by the town having... 4 power roles? And players... not being idiots? And this assumes that Incognito is a vigilante, not a Serial Killer.

I'm unsurprised that the player I accuse of being an SK and the player I accuse of being a mafioso trying to con us with a plan have voted me, even before re-reading, or considering any other options.

[Incognito]

What exactly leads you to believe I'm a serial killer? Would you like it if I went into GREAT detail about why I thought The Jester was scum?

[Ether]

or considering any other options.

This is a load of fish-shaped solid waste, and you know it.

[Ether]

Also, I

finally

got to use that line. I despaired when Flameaxe died.

[Guardian]

I don't *THINK* you're anything.

I only *THINK* we should all re-read the thread, try and figure out what setup is most likely, and then move on from there.

I've *suggested the possibility* that you're a SK, and you've basically OMGUS'd me for it.

[Guardian]

or considering any other options.

This is a load of fish-shaped solid waste, and you know it.

Not at all, but your rhetoric was amusing.

[Incognito]

I don't *THINK* you're anything.

I only *THINK* we should all re-read the thread, try and figure out what setup is most likely, and then move on from there.

I've *suggested the possibility* that you're a SK, and you've basically OMGUS'd me for it.

I'll re-read but I doubt it's going to change my opinion about you. Relax, you're only at L-2. And no, I didn't OMGUS you. I wanted either you or Ether dead here: Post 463. I've already mentioned why I think Ether is more likely town than you and why her claim makes more sense than yours so guess what - that leaves you.

[Ether]

I've already broken the game, Guardian. The possibility of IncogSK is the only thread you're still hanging by, and it's very, very weak.

I am still perfectly willing to no-lynch, as long as it's under the arrangements I've provided. But I think lynching you accomplishes the same thing faster.

Incidentally--Incognito, you know those little paper-shaped icons in the top-left corner of every post? That's the URL you want.

[Incognito]

Incidentally--Incognito, you know those little paper-shaped icons in the top-left corner of every post? That's the URL you want.

Ooooooooh. I never even noticed those things. Thanks for the tip. That might make things... cleaner, I suppose.

[Guardian]

I'd like to hear Gorrad, Miztef, and YWN's thoughts, because I think there's a non-insignificant possibility that I'm being tag-teamed by two remaining scum.

I'll get to a re-read probably on Thursday, and see who seems most likely to be partners with jack and flame.

[Miztef]

If Incognito is serial killer, we'll lynch him tomorrow, no problem. He's almost definitely not mafia (it may actually be surely definitely).

Guardian and Ether are the most likely scum (by a large margin). I don't know about YWN either, but I may have missed something there.

Out of the 2, I definitely believe Guardian is the more likely scum. There is still a good chance that Ether is scum, but I'm much more willing to place my bets on guardian.

[Ether]

Miztef, what are your thoughts on no-lynch?

By the way, Incognito is even more obvobvtown because he's voting Guardian. If he were a serial killer, no-lynch would be the safer route for him.