Micro 382 - CREDIMVS PAVONI DEORVM (Game Over!)

[vettrock]

Hello everyone.
I've played with Wolfy and Clusk92 before.
VOTE: Shaded

[vettrock]

Hello everyone.
I've played with Wolfy and Clusk92 before.
VOTE: Shaded

You have no thoughts about the previous exchange whatsoever?

I read it and I'm not sure what to make of it so I threw something in other direction to see what develops,

[vettrock]

I read it and I'm not sure what to make of it so I threw something in other direction to see what develops,

To see what develops...from an RVS vote...are you serious?

VOTE: vettrock
for unnecessary prolongation of RVS.

The whole purpose of the RVS stage is to throw out votes and see how people react, buddy, defend, sheep, etc.

It seems to me that there was a comment, and then someone's over reaction, and then an overreaction to the overreaction.

[vettrock]

At least we've had a few more players posting now. So, let's try this again.

Vettrock:

If you were scum, who would you target for a night kill assuming the day ended right now with a no lynch?

If the Day ended right now and I was scum it is hard to say who I would nightkill. I think we need a bit more information, as at this point I'd just have to pick a random person. A nightkill should be the person most believed to be town, or a person that is particularly threatening to you. The problem with the second option, is it points the finger at you unless they also fall under the first catagory. As there isn't anyone who is generally accepted as town at this point, I'd have to go random.

[vettrock]

At least we've had a few more players posting now. So, let's try this again.

Vettrock:

If you were scum, who would you target for a night kill assuming the day ended right now with a no lynch?

If the Day ended right now and I was scum it is hard to say who I would nightkill. I think we need a bit more information, as at this point I'd just have to pick a random person. A nightkill should be the person most believed to be town, or a person that is particularly threatening to you. The problem with the second option, is it points the finger at you unless they also fall under the first catagory. As there isn't anyone who is generally accepted as town at this point, I'd have to go random.

I do not like the sound of that.

That's great for you. I was asked a question so I answered. Should I have said it was an awful question instead and dodged it? I think it was a legitimate question, although I think it is still too early to get a good read, so it the day ended now with a NoLynch it would really hurt town much more than scum. I don't see that happening however.

[vettrock]

Scum need to pretend they're not scum in the position they're in when they answer that question. They mustn't answer truthfully because that is who they

will

kill.

Town, however, put themselves in the place of scum and pick the most threatening player to their wincon.

You seem to be of the first kind, trying to make some theory up to justify not calling who you will kill.

I must remember this question for scmhunting purposes.

Fine, I'll answer it this way:
Its too early to tell, ask me again when we are closer to a lynch.

[vettrock]

So to contribute to the Josh/Scripten debate:

I can follow most of Josh's argument with the exception of the color coded one which wasn't clear until I dug back into the original post to see what was added and what wasn't. Scripten seems to be bending stuff a lot more, but at this point I think its more being defensive that necessarily scummy. He is trying to bend things to support his view. Scum definately do this as they have to make things up, but confirmation bias and bending stuff due to confirmation bias definately affects town as well.

So sightly scumminess to Scripten, but I'm not ready to call him scum yet.

[vettrock]

Calling for a hammer at this point is scummy in my book. BBT's claims that Wolfy is certain scum is scummy provided Wolfy flips town. I don't see what the town gains by lynching at this point. Personally, I think it takes a bit longer to get good reads on people. Maybe I don't have the Uber skills of all of you, but knowing with "certainty" that someone will flip scum is something that only scum can say.

While I'm not for dragging things out unnecessarily, lynching at this point is anti-town.

[vettrock]

I'm not convinced Wolfy is scum. The problem is everyone on the wagon can't be scum since there are only two scum. I think rushing to this lynch is incredibly anti-town.

[vettrock]

I'll try and address some of the questions towards me, and I'll try and dig deeper to make sure I address all of the question later.

On Wolfy, and why I didn't defend him harder and why I thought he was town. I thought He was town. I didn't have a particularly reason other than his play being similar that the last time I played with him, and the fact that the wagon gathered much too quickly. Part of the reason I didn't defend him "harder" is just that he was hammered before we could really discuss much more. I'm thinking there was at least one scum on the wagon there pushing it. Since Mr. Ree is confirmed town that leaves BBT, Scripten, Asher, and TierShift. Asher I find particularly scummy with his jump into the game and make a vote for the largest wagon on the way to a quick lynch. I'm not saying we should wait until the deadline is looming to finish voting, but I think by ending the Day early, it is only hurting town.

More later.

[vettrock]

It's a loaded question, with a false dichotomy. I had

NO READ

on wolfy.
I attempted to engage him, 12 posts later he was at l-1 with the intent to hammer already stated. He was doing whatever the fuck it was that he was doing, and it really didn't matter to me anymore. End of story. I've said this a lot of times. I don't know why you keep asking me, or what kind of answer you are trying to get out of me, but that's it. How long do you plan on tunneling this?

Wolfy said he made a reaction test.

Scum

do not need reaction tests.

That is moderately alignment indicative

.

So, this is Josh not town-reading Wolfy. Right?

This suggests you had a moderate read on Wolfy.

I've seen enough. I'll keep tunneling you until you're lynched.

So I will agree this shows that Josh at one point say he had a moderate town read, and then said no read. I don't think this is that much of a shift.

I think the I'm going to pick someone to get lynch everyday and then just focus on that until it happens attidute is at the very least anti-town, and moderately scummy.


I think Josh is town, wake is null, Asher is moderately scummy, Tiershift is slightly town. BBT and Scripten moderately scummy. Yes I realize this is three scum. I'll pick BBT for now, but I would consider either of the other two as well.

[vettrock]

I think Josh is town, wake is null, Asher is moderately scummy, Tiershift is slightly town. BBT and Scripten moderately scummy. Yes I realize this is three scum. I'll pick BBT for now, but I would consider either of the other two as well.

Are you at least going to lay down a vote? Or... you know, do something other than comment on the situation and sit back. Come on, if you're not scum, then help the town, please? your play has been poor and lazy all game.

VOTE: BBT
I meant to put down the BBT vote, but I guess I missed it (hence the "I'll pick BBT for now")

I'll admit I haven't been as active as I should be.

[vettrock]

vettrock

Vettrock's another player I haven't had the pleasure of playing with before. In light of Wolfy being innocent, it doesn't look like you ever placed suspicion on him. I did notice your exchange with Scripten, in which in 68 he asks you who you'd NK as Scum if there were no lynch. You respond in 116 by saying you wouldn't know, and that you'd need more information, and that you'd pick a random target. This bit leaves me wondering, because if you were Scum, and seeing how this isn't multiball, you'd already know who is Scum and who is Town. From your hypothetical standpoint there would be no "believing who is most likely to be Town." You say you'd be left with two options:

1)

A nightkill should be the person most believed to be town.

Now, I could be misunderstanding you here. Do you mean the person most believed to be Town... in the eyes of the players? If that is what you meant to say, then that changes things and I would agree with it.

2)

A nightkill should be a person that is particularly threatening to you.

This would make the most sense to me, so long as you make sure it doesn't come back to bite you. We likely have differences of opinion in how to play the game. If you know someone is Town, and a particularly strong Town voice at that, you'd want to kill that person earlier rather than later. There is merit to randomly killing a Townie, too, in that there's less likelihood of the death being tied back to you. It's also situational, as you mentioned in the last sentence of that post.

I'd agree with the assessment of 1, assuming he meant in the eyes of the players. 2, however, gets a bit more complicated. In post 38, vettrock talked about having played with clusk and wolfy before. I replaced clusk, so the only one he's played with before is wolfy. I don't know if wolfy's town play is usually strong, but he is the only player that vettrock seems to have had first hand experience with. Wolfy got lynched though, so the night kill would have to be, by his standards, random or the most believed to be town. Mr_ree only talked about vettrock once, in which he called him town (203). Other than that, there's no connection between mr_ree and vettrock. That could be either that vettrock is unrelated to the night kill or that it was just a random townie kill.

To confirm, yes, I mean most town in the eyes of the other players. I'm not sure who that would have been at the end of D1 at this point.

Vettrock did say that he was against a no lynch in 119, but he was also against the lynch on wolfy, so it sounds more like he would be okay with a no lynch as long as it happens slow rather than immediately. I already talked about voting for shaded and leaving it there; to me it seems like he just wanted to avoid the wagon without being called out by an active player.

I am against a NoLynch on D1 under pretty much any circumstance. NoLynch is for when you are at MyLo and it is in the town's best interests to eliminate one of the options so they don't mislynch.

I didn't really see the case against wolfy, Should I have moved my vote to someone else, perhaps, although I don't think it would have made much of a difference at that point since everyone seemed intent on lynching wolfy.

"Maybe I don't have the Uber skills of all of you, but knowing with "certainty" that someone will flip scum is something that only scum can say."

The first part of this sentence feels fake to me. A bit. As for the second part, you say it's something only Scum can say. So... why did you do nothing against that person? If that was something only Scum would say, where was your vote to put action behind your words? If you think something done can only be done by Scum, you cast a vote against the person doing that Scummy action. Instead you did not, which troubles me, because it doesn't make your words ring true, because if you believed what you said your actions would follow suit.

"While I'm not for dragging things out unnecessarily, lynching at this point is anti-town."

At what point would you be for lynching? A ballpark estimate would be helpful here.

That last post was on August 29th, at 8:03am. Mr. Ree hammered at 2:55pm that same day. You've not posted since. You had around seven hours to post. It's understandable if you were busy with real-life. If you weren't, and since you viewed Wolfy's wagon as incredibly anti-Town, maybe you could have, if Town, found time to post one or two more posts voicing your disapproval of that wagon?

This is troubling for me because he could have done more to try and stop the lynch wagon but instead took a more "No. Don't." approach instead of being actively against it. Not really any actions he did back up trying to stop the lynch. Also, lynching is anti-town, but so is not lynching? It seems like more fence sitting to me, rather than picking a side and doing something about it.

Other than that, I don't know enough about meta to try and extrapolate his playstyle. I think I covered everything Wake88, but it's always possible I missed something.

For a ballpark figure of when I would be in favor of lynching, I would say about 2-3 days before the deadline on D1 would give the town generally more information to go off of. The real indicator is when people no longer have much to say. If people are still commenting and providing content, let the day go on. If it gets to the point where everyone is saying that they said all they have to say, it fine to hammer at that point no matter how much time is left. At that point we had two players that were just getting into the game, and had the hammer not happened, probably would have contributed a bit more before the lynch. Even if it doesn't change the results, I think it better to have more information than less.

As far as my meta, you can read through my other games to see my playstyle, but as I have been town on almost every game on this site, you won't have much scum play to evaluate. In theory, you could look at if my play differed significantly. My only scum game, I replaced in the night, and when the Day started, the Cop who we roleblocked, started off with a bogus guilty result on one of the town. There was a quickhammer and it was over.

While you can accuse me of fense sitting, I can say the side I sat on consistently was the not lynching Wolfy, and now I'm on the not lynching Josh side. Who needs to by lynched, I'm less certain of. I was not advocating a NoLynch as much as a someone other than Wolfy.

I think Josh is town, wake is null, Asher is moderately scummy, Tiershift is slightly town. BBT and Scripten moderately scummy. Yes I realize this is three scum. I'll pick BBT for now, but I would consider either of the other two as well.

Are you at least going to lay down a vote? Or... you know, do something other than comment on the situation and sit back. Come on, if you're not scum, then help the town, please? your play has been poor and lazy all game.

VOTE: BBT
I meant to put down the BBT vote, but I guess I missed it (hence the "I'll pick BBT for now")

I'll admit I haven't been as active as I should be.

Yo are you caught up? I asked you a few questions. Can you give me

some

sort of reads?

I just went through your ISO and didn't see any questions direct at me specifically except the ones from D1 which I answered.

While I recognize that it is somewhat a playstyle issue, I dislike it when people make quick judgements and then push them to lynch. This is a scum tactic, but of course all of the people on the wagon can't be scum. While no one like to be wrong, or change their mind, it seems BBT makes his choice and then finds reasons to support his choice rather than looking at the reasons and then making a choice.

I found the push on wolfy scummy, and I think the push on Josh is scummy as well. I'm generally in favor of extending the day at least moderately close to the deadline, as I can only see that helping town. When it gets to the point where there is not much else to discuss, sure it is time to hammer. But that didn't seem to be the case D1. D2 seems headed in the same direction. The question is of course who among the pushers is scum, and who is duped town.

As far as coming out of the woodwork and defending Josh, Yes I have not been as active as I should be. The case against Josh doesn't seem that strong to me.

[vettrock]

I realize one post is not a case, but what I see at the case against Josh:

I'll be blunt, I feel like Josh is digging himself into a hole here. I'm with scripten and bbt. I'm not liking how vettrock only comes in to defend him.

VOTE: Josh_B

Asher putting down his vote. sheeping/agreeing with scripten and bbt.

It's a loaded question, with a false dichotomy. I had

NO READ

on wolfy.
I attempted to engage him, 12 posts later he was at l-1 with the intent to hammer already stated. He was doing whatever the fuck it was that he was doing, and it really didn't matter to me anymore. End of story. I've said this a lot of times. I don't know why you keep asking me, or what kind of answer you are trying to get out of me, but that's it. How long do you plan on tunneling this?

Wolfy said he made a reaction test.

Scum

do not need reaction tests.

That is moderately alignment indicative

.

So, this is Josh not town-reading Wolfy. Right?

This suggests you had a moderate read on Wolfy.

I've seen enough. I'll keep tunneling you until you're lynched.

BBT's case. Josh not being clear if he had a moderate town read or a Null read on wolfy.

^ I consider that a caught scum. What opinions do the rest of you have on this?

Scripten's point supporting Josh's lynch

[vettrock]

Two questions. What are your reasons for scumreading BBT, Asher, and myself? Since you seem to just be trying to stop a lynch at this point, it would help us for you to elucidate a little more on your reads so we might be able to move away from where we are? Just saying, "There's not enough evidence yet" doesn't help as much as actually engaging with other players.

Second question. What do you believe the case(s) on Josh_B are? Could you link specific players to their cases, please, if there are multiple cases you see?

To answer your first question, The way the wagon on Josh is building, seems too similar to the railroad wagon that built up on Wolfy. It sees to be the same people pushing it. It just looks like rushing to a lycnh with very little behind it, which I find scummy.

[vettrock]

So vettrock, if I get it right, your reads are:
The people who aren't pushing josh are town and the ones pushing him are scum?

Like I said obviously all of them are not scum, but I'm pretty sure at least one of them is. One of the non-pushers may be scum trying to distance themselves from their partner, but at this point there is nothing to point to any of them that I can see.

[vettrock]

I see the crumb, but I'm not sure what he was trying to get out of the alignment test. I understand that to mean he was shifting his vote to BBT to see his reaction, rather than because he really thought he was scummy. I don't see how that makes anyone scum or not scum. The only thing would be that Josh then shifted is vote to BBT, hoping to build a wagon apparently. I don't think that necessarily makes him scum.

The thing that is suspicious about the josh wagon is that is it the same people as the wolfy wagon.

With regards to my lack of further defending Wolfy, yes, I thought he was town, and given more time during Day 1, I probably would have put out more trying to defend him, but Mr. Ree hammered before much more could really be said.

I don't like the way BBT tunnels and seems to ignore everything that doesn't support his theory.

Asher has provided more reasoning behind his reads, although his entrance in the game with a quick vote with no information behind it seems scummy to me.

While I don't think scripten's test proves anything, I think it does indicate that he is probably town and is scumhunting.

[vettrock]

You could do Wake next. Then Vettrock.

Sound good?

This is scummy to me. He is already planning the next mislynch. If you are town, you opinion of who you want to lynch next depends on the flip and the nightkill. Town doesn't have enough information prior to that to make an informed decision as to who they want to lynch. If Josh flips town, does that change your opinion any? How about if he flips scum?

[vettrock]

Vettrock, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p6191745

So apparently something about the way I play tend to make people think I am scummy. I think part of it has to do with my hesitation to commit given limited information. I've played town everytime I've played on this site, with the exception of a game I replaced into and made I think two posts before the game was over. I've had a wagon built up against me to L-1 in all of the 9 player games, and had a fair amount of suspicion against in the Marvel game. If I knew a good way to prevent that, I would, and I'm not sure what it is that causes that to happen. I think to best strategy is to just watch, and the contribute what I see and think. If I am lynched, hopefully there is enough information generated to help town win in the end. I don't want to be lynched but going into a defensive position doesn't seem to be helping the town as much as looking at others behavior. I know I'm town, I don't need to concentrate on the cases against me as I know they are bogus, except with respect to how it reveals to scumminess of the player making the case. If someone wants an explaination from me as to why I did something or my reasoning, I provide it. That to me is the best case I can make at that point.

[vettrock]

Scripten, what are you hoping to gain from prolonging the day?

We have two players looking to have something said before the end of the day. I don't see why we should need to cut them off.

Ideally the day should last until everyone has said their piece only scum gains from cutting it short. More posting by town and scum are both helpful to down.

huh.

Josh, what was it that prompted your read on scripten and BBT to change?

Do you mean from BBT/Scripten to BBT/Asher?
An ISO PbPA on Asher. My case really just started with Asher's contradiction to his feelings on Vettrock. First he said he thought Vettrock should have tried to defend Wolfy more if Wolfy was a town read, then he said that he didn't like it that Vettrock was defending me.
If I'm one of Vettrock's town reads, doesn't it make sense that vettrock would defend according to that line of thinking?
I thought,

If Asher didn't like the way Vettrock handled the Wolfy wagon, wouldn't he be more inclined to appreciate the way that Vettrock is handling the Josh wagon?

But while I was doing that deja-vu hit me. What Asher said that he didn't like about Vettrock in the first place was nearly identical to the thing that I've been battling from BBT. /case solved.

I do think vettrock should have defended wolfy. I also think that if he believes you're town, he should defend you. What I didn't like about it was that the first (non-quoted) line of his first post in ~40 hours was defending you. That seems to me to mean that he's extremely focused on protecting you. Which is quite a 180 turn from how he handled the wolfy wagon, which means there's something different about you. Either he's utterly convinced you're town, or you're working together. I don't think that's much of a contradiction on my part.

I also have a limited amount of time to play the game. The main difference from my perspecive of my defending wolfy vs. defending Josh is just I have had a lot more time to defend Josh.

If you were Scum, what would you be doing?

Knock it off with the self-meta-probing questions already

Josh should claim if he's at L-1. Does that sound reasonable? Same with BBT (assuming he's at L-1, too).

Ewwwwwwww
Let me break down why I do NOT like this post.

First, Bbt is under no threat of getting lynched.
Second and most important, Josh claimed VT already. Things would be different if he had claimed a PR, but at this point asking BBT for a claim will not help us decide a lynch and only will give info to the scumteam where possible PR's lie.

Nicely played off with a parallel to josh, though.

Wake, how does BBT claiming aid us?

When doesn't claiming at L-1 aid the Town?

Assuming BBT is also at L-1, and assuming you know that's true, then it's possible someone else could vote to hammer BBT. I don't know, but it's possible, assuming we have to wagons at L-1. If BBT isn't at L-1, and you know this, yet you question anyways in spite of that knowledge, then I would wonder why you haven't corrected me yet for not knowing where the current votes stand.

I find it odd how BBT asserts he's under no risk of being lynched in spite of being at L-1. It sounds presumptuous, considering we don't know for sure what everyone is thinking. And your last question, trying to make it seem as if I'm fishing for PRs when I'm not, is not helping me think you're Town. My vote's staying where it is for now.

More to come in a little bit.

First I agree with the self meta questions. While I answered the "what you would do as scum" question to be cooperative, I don't think they accomplish anything. If you are scum, you can either do what you said, or do something different to "show your not scum" or if you do just what you said, you can claim the scum is trying to point the finger at you with their actions. As scum, you can do what someone says when they do that to point the finger at them. It doesn't help the town and just throws more misdirection into the game.

When you are at L-1 with someone claiming intent to hammer, that is the time to claim. That is when when the town can gain by re-evaluating who they are lynching. I would have been very surprised if Scripten or anyone else on the Josh wagon moved to hammer without any warning. Pushing for a claim without intent to hammer is rolefishing in the worst way. Very scummy in my book. Especially after being told that there is no reason for the claim, he continued to push. I don't have a lot of time to play and read and re-read everything either, but this just seems to much of an obvious scum move to ignore.

Wake's accusation and shifting is vote to Tiershift was also either just him taking things way to personal, or scummy as well. What did Tiershift do to change your opinion of him. What was the behavior change other than calling you out for your role-fishing.

Also I don't see why we would assume Wake88 would be the nightkill. I don't see any particular reason why him rather than anyone else.

The thing I really don't like about the Josh wagon, what how is is almost exactly the same as the wolfy wagon. This leads me to believe there is as least one scum on that wagon. The difficulty is determining who it is. My suspicion is primarly BBT and Asher, However given wake88's recent posting, I'm going to call him out.
VOTE: Wake88

[vettrock]

Probably not. I guess I'm just impatient. I hate giving scum a chance to muddy the waters.

Almost completely disagree with this. More posting can only help town. Yes, scum can throw out some bogus stuff but in the end that is what helps the town flush out the scum. Assuming someone is scum, yes it is better that they get hammered but I'm not confident that will happen, and if someone is convinced to change, that will only further help the next day.

[vettrock]

I'm VT.

It is obvious one of the two earls is scum. That means Scripten or Asher is scum.

Wake is incrediblly scummy however. My vote for the most scummy is still wake. So then the question to be answered is: Is Wake bussing his scum partner Scripten, or buddying his scum partner Asher.

Wake's blatant role fishing and then a quickhammer to stop the discussion is about a scummy as it gets. The whole reason a scum self-hammers to stop town's ability to continue to talk. A quickhammer does exactly the same thing.

I'm fairly certain of my vote, but I'll hold off for a bit to allow for some discussion. Remember there are 2 scum, and it only take 3 votes to lynch, and one of the scum has already show he likes to quickhammer.

[vettrock]

You're not going to talk your way out of this, Scum.

My vote stays where it is. Once Scripten flips Scum, both Asher and I are cleared.

At least ONE of Asher or I need to be at LyLo the next Day. Asher would be confirmed as Earl.

If scripten flipped scum, Asher would be cleared as Earl. You would not.

One of Scripten and Asher is scum.
That also means one of Wake88 and Tiershift is scum.

I'm more confident in my wake read than my Asher read.

I would like Tiershift's opinion.

[vettrock]

Asher: You're confirmed scum. Wake is only mostly confirmed.

Vettrock: Smart play. Question. Do you think we should go for confirmed scum or take out the obvscum? At this point, it's almost entirely theory.

I'll wait for Tiershift's opinion. I think Asher is the more likely scum of the two of you, mostly because his teaming with wake. There would be very little reason to bus at this point, but I'm not going to rule it out.

[vettrock]

Wake

: Tier is probably town. You should put more effort/energy elsewhere.

Given BBT's flip as cop, I'm going to call this an innocent reading on Tiershift. This was a post early in D2. It is obvious he didn't have guilty on someone, or he would have pushed them instead of Josh.

That to me means wake is scum. Asher is the most likely partner at this point since we are in LyLo, there isn't much reason to bus.

[vettrock]

And given that our cop died night 2, I don't think any rolefishing really happened.

Exactly how in the world could you (expect us to) think that? I would go so far as to say the reason BBT was singled out was because of his reaction to Wake88's rolefishing.

BBT was asked to claim, and refused, and then that night he ends up dead? Yeah I think that is definately rolefishing.

With respect to you and your views, I'm not so sure about that. There are some things from him I'd like answers on. If you feel he is Town, and that I should actually put effort and energy elsewhere, I think the best path towards that would be to peruse the post I made regarding him, and point out exactly why my observations are flawed and/or unhelpful. I'm not sure what to think of you implying I should look elsewhere (if that is not true, please correct me).

I'm 100% saying you should look elsewhere (Hint: Josh).

I don't explain town-reads, it's unhelpful. The only reason I went into some detail on Scripten is because it was a developed read, from scum to town, and I don't mind explaining my thoughts/progression in doing so.

I feel Tier has been town since near the beginning of the game.

We may have to agree to disagree.

Another indication that BBT probably had an innocent read on Tiershift. 100% is a pretty strong read from a cop.

Since Tiershift is town, this means wake88 is 100% scum. I would say Asher is about 80% certain to be scum.

[vettrock]

I was pretty sure Asher was scum over Scripten, it just that wake88 looks so much more tempting, especially after I saw what I thought was a crumb from BBT. I was shocked when I saw scripten's vote, I was like, how can he not see it? But I guess I read too much into the 100% there.

Good game Tiershift and Asher.

Any comment on my play are welcome as well. I know I have a tendency to luck especially in the beginning of the game. The problem for me is I have a hard time getting much out of the back and forth which pretty much seems like guessing to me. Once we have some votes and flips, I think I can do some analysis with some real information behind it.