Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Legacy (Game Over)
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Dang it. PV's posts donotmake me want to lynch him.
Vote: Cheery Dog.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Also, AP's posting exactly what he needs to in order to solidify the gut-townread.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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'Cause I've literally got no one else.In post 3329, zabriel wrote:Mastin, why Cheery Dog right now?My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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It's worth considering and looking in to, since Yates's drop in activity has pretty much waned my townread on him considerably.In post 3340, PeregrineV wrote:@Mastin- I know you have Yates=town because something something AV, but the lack of pressure at this response is disconcerting.
But obviously, he's not getting lynched today. Definitely worth a careful consideration day five, but not today.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Hey, AP, out of curiosity, how often in your games do you wall?
I don't really remember seeing a wall from you, like, ever.
I probably have, but it's still not exactly what I think about when I think of you.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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myk, MoI's V/LA, so his lack of activity is understandable.
How would you feel about a Cheery Dog wagon?
His jumping ship from PV to AP looks opportunistic.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Three words, rhymes with "Weeeee, this fun!"In post 3361, AngryPidgeon wrote:Cheery, why are you voting me?
First letter of each word, H I S. Last letter each word, E S M.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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MoI, he just is.
I don't really have the time to explain why at the moment, and I'm fully aware of just how convincing my argument is (zilch ), but I'll do what I can later.
And PV, I was on AP before his wagon was the new hot thing. (If memory serves, was the second voter.) And I did so 'cause I had nothing better.
Cheery Dog's AP vote, however, looks opportunistic-as-hell.
Also, AP claiming spontaneously like he did = huge towntell, so GTFO his wagon and lynch someone else.
At this stage, I'd rather a PV lynch than an AP lynch, but I don't like a PV lynch. I won't support a myk lynch, but I can hear arguments for a Zab/Jason lynch. Especially if there's no Cheery Dog support.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Like hell I do. My vote was weak when I made it and I said as much. AP's posting has been such that he's once more managed to swing to the positive side of null.In post 3372, PeregrineV wrote:But you should be voting AP because you think he is scum.
Spontaneous claiming from him.Why is his claim a town-tell?
Occam's razor--which is simpler, that AP tailored his play to my expectations of him as town, or that he's just town doing what he would as town?
The spontaneous claiming is something which he has zero reason to do right now as scum, ESPECIALLY since his claim was VT near the deadline with him as the leading wagon.My academy.
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And me voting him and calling it opportunistic isn't enough?My academy.
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AngryPidgeon - 5 (Kublai Khan, Acosmist, Nero Cain, PeregrineV, Cheery Dog)
^The first half of this wagon is fine (with thepossibleexception of Aco), but the second half...not so much.
PeregrineV - 3 (zabriel, Kise, AngryPidgeon)
^Slightly more questionable.
zabriel - 3 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, mykonian)
^Ditto. Myk's town, so that's a good sign. (Also, find it ironic that MoI is on a wagon with two of his other suspects. Does he suspect they're bussing that strongly? )
Bleh. Thought this'd be more helpful.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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*sigh*
I really hate this game.
Every damn suspect of mine.
Every dang person.
AP's dropping towntells like a boss.
Cheery Dog just softclaimed a PR.
Aco's going to be tested by Cheery Dog.
Kise and MoI are under revision still but are currently on the town side of null.
PV's posting gives mixed emotions, but there's definitely enough positive to make me not want him lynched.
GAH.
Screw it.
Vote: Zabriel.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Random VCA time. (Like I've got anything better to go off of.)
Melmond- 11 (Tammy,zabriel, Kublai Khan, Nero Cain,BloodCovenant, Benmage, Yates, AngryPigeon,snifit,rapidcanyon, mykonian)
The possible scum are {Khan, Nero, Yates, AP, myk} here.
I don't think it's Nero, I don't think it's myk.
You know my stance on AP, so that means Khan and Yates are definitely worth another look.
Tammy- 11 (snifit, Kise,Benmage, pidgey,WrathChild, MagnaofIllusion,Acosmist, AngryPidgeon, mykonian,Elscouta, Yates)
Yates is an honorary member, here, thanks to his willingness to be on the wagon. Here, the possible scum are {Kise, pidgey, MoI, AP, myk, Yates}.
Significantly more, hence why the Tammy wagon was so scummy. I don't think it's myk, you know my stance on AP.
Elscouta- 9 (Cheery Dog,Acosmist, AngryPidgeon, MagnaofIllusion, Kise,Thor665, Kublai Khan, Yates, jasonT1981)
And here we get {AP, MoI, Kise, Khan, Yates, jason}
You know my stance on AP (though I'll admit it's concerning to see him on so many major wagons), and MoI/Kise are under consideration. But wow, Khan needs a check and Yates doubly so.
It's not conclusive in the least, but it's definitely a pattern I want to look into more.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Also worth mentioning--
Typically, there's a black and white with regards to me in my games.
I'm either dead-on when I replace in and get progressively further from the truth as I continue to live,
Or I'm horribly wrong and flip a switch and suddenly I'm a scumhunting god.
I don't think it's the latter, so I'm checking in to the former. Khan, Yates, Zab...
Is it definite, heck no, but I'm heavily considering it at the moment.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Not outing 'em.In post 3388, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, who is the messenger.
I'll tell Nero when night comes. That way if the scum by some miracle nightkill me, he can say. (And if he's scum, well, then, the messenger's town anyway.
But he's not.)
The knowledge of who the messenger is won't be lost, 'kay?My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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AP, if Cheery Dog is testing the claim, then that means the messenger won't.
And if they don't, well, then, keeping them hidden unless absolutely necessary seems best.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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AP, stop rolefishing; you're blowing your towncred again.
Leave him be.
We're lynching elsewhere today. Preferably not PV (as that's one of Cheery Dog's thingies), so probably Zab.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Personally, I'd prefer the messenger to target Aco, anyway.
Cheery's claim pretty much confirms him as town.
And, yeah, I'd be down for a Yates wagon.
VOTE: Yates.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Okay. Plan time.
Lynch:Our options for today are zabriel and Yates.
"Why not PeregrineV?" If for no other reason, because Cheery Dog has a cryptic result on him.
"Why not AngryPidgeon?" Look at his play right now and tell me it's scum.
It aint. He's town, and I do NOT want that lynch.
"Why not jason?" Too much resistance and not enough support for a flashwagon. If he's scum, we can deal with him on day five, but we can't lynch him today.
"Why not myk?" Don't be stupid.
Messenger:Targets Aco. No questions asked, or I will bust their ass.
Cheery Dog:Use your role however you see fit, but I request for younotto target Aco.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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VCA is meant to highlight specific trends. In this case, the trend is being on the end-day wagon. I said that it was weak, no? But it highlighted a few players I had been glossing over, putting into light a potential trend which I had missed before. And said trend is something worth looking in to.In post 3410, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Mastin – Post 3387 is stupid. It’s not VCA it is what you expressly called bad VCA analysis in your rather long work in progress.. You aren’t looking at motivation and context just arbitrarily assuming scum are in a specific place when you acknowledge that you have experienced mislynch wagons that were all Town.
So it's perfectly within my guide. I'm not arbitrarily declaring some number on, some number off. I am, however, analyzing who is most likely to be scum of those on.
And, yeah, of course I'm not following lots of my own advice; the guide is as much meant for me as it is for the rest of the community. Do you know how tempting it's been for me to add a "Do as I say, not as I do." disclaimer to it?
Ultimately, I decided not to, since it's unnecessary, it brings into question my credibility, and since I intend for the guide to be used after my potential retirement, then people wouldn't be able to even know that I wasn't following it.
'Sides, the guide is exactly that: a guideline, more than a hard-fast rule.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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In absolutely no way scummy; at WORST null.In post 3426, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Mastin – so what say you about Mykonian wagonnind today with BOTH players he has either voted or called scum (myself and Zab)?
Look at me, I'm negotiating withterroristsformer top-scumreads and joining them on lynch candidates.
And look at you; you're on a wagon with two of your main suspects. (Or were; dunno where you/they went since then.)
I'd be more concerned if he WASN'T willing to vote with 'em.My academy.
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(This is what I'm talking about, MoI. Last I checked, you had both jason and myk as scum with zab. You're concerned about myk being willing to go on a wagon with people he suspects, but it's a two-way street. )
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
zabriel - 3 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, Cheery Dog)
PeregrineV - 1 (Kise)
Yates - 4 (mastin2, AngryPidgeon, zabriel, mykonian)
mykonian - 1 (pidgey)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Acosmist)
We're dangerously close to a no-lynch right now.
AP, zabriel, and Yates are the only wagons we have which can go through.
I'd strongly prefer not-AP, so again, it's either zabriel or Yates getting lynched today.
Everyone off both those wagons needs to choose a side.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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So, a rundown of my reads.
3. zabriel
^Lynch candidate number one.It's either him or Yates.
4. Shahrizai mykonian
^Town.
5. Kise
^Town side of null. I am re-evaluating his posts, but he's definitely not someone I want to lynch any time soon, if for no other reason than because he's not antagonizing anyone and has shown an evolution of reads which seems natural, with him willing to show reason and compromise with people. Could he be scum? Most definitely, he could be.Ishe scum? At the moment, I'm saying no.
8. PeregrineV
^Cryptic Cheery Dog result. Presumably, when Cheery Dog dies we'll know what his results mean, and until then, PV gets a pass.
9. Amrun pidgey
^Been on the townside of null for much of the game. Amrun's posts were natural to me. Furthermore, pidgey's posts have largely been stream-of-consciousness-styled. If he's scum, he's managed to disguise it well. While I think he's pretty much wrong on everything, his posts just come across as being town. Soweak townis my overall assessment.
10. Acosmist
^Claim about to be tested by the messenger. If the messenger refuses, I'm lynching their ass tomorrow, period end of discussion. Claim may be double-tested by Cheery Dog, though that's his choice. At this time, I believe his claim, for what it's worth.
11. Zoroaster MagnaofIllusion
^I currently am in line with AP's reasoning. MoI's frustration this game seems entirely genuine. And not in a "scum not getting their way" kind of genuine; it legitimately looks like frustrated town. Like Kise, I'm re-evaluating him, and like Kise, he's on the townside of null.
12. Yates
^Lynch candidate number two.If zab's not lynched, Yates will be.
14. I Am Innocent AngryPidgeon
^Mid-tier town. I liked IaI's posts, and AP's been dropping towntell after towntell after towntell. Though it's certainly possible he's scum tailoring his play to my expectations, I sincerely doubt that; his play seems like his normal ever-changing self, really.
16. jasonT1981
^Worth a look at in future days, he's utterly and totally null for me right now. Those on both the town-jason and scum-jason sides of the debate, I request that overnight, you prepare your case for your stance, so that when day five dawns, you can present it and I can weigh both sides of the argument while double-checking the facts presented.
17. snifit Cheery Dog
^Pretty close to confirmed town for his claim.
19. Kublai Khan
^Has been getting a pass from me most of the game. It's about time I got paranoid about that. I've had him as strong town, but the trend I saw in the VCA is something I want to investigate some more. Since the game will be in night over the weekend, that means I won't really get a chance to reread all 138 pages ('specially given my V/LA), but I really think that I should do so soon, in light of the flips we've got so far. I've been relying a lot on isos, and I think I stand a LOT to gain by looking at things in their entire context once more.
21. Nero Cain
^Not only do I know his claim to be accurate, not only do I think his play has been town, but we've also got a Cheery Dog cryptic result on him, soyeah; I'm treating him like a mason for me right now.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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tl;dr version:
LYNCH CANDIDATES:
Yates
zabriel
INVESTIGATING (as close as I've got to scumreads):
Kublai Khan
jasonT1981
RE-EVALUATING:
MagnaofIllusion
Kise
TIME WILL TELL (literally!):
Acosmist
PeregrineV
TOWNLEANS:
AngryPidgeon
pidgey
TOWN:
Cheery Dog
Nero Cain
mykonian
Strongest at top for all.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Also, top-o'-page votecount.
AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
zabriel - 4 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, Cheery Dog, Kise)
Yates - 4 (mastin2, AngryPidgeon, zabriel, mykonian)
mykonian - 1 (pidgey)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Acosmist)
As a reminder,we need a lynch FAST; we're DANGEROUSLY close to deadline.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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My timezone math is terrible, so this is not going to be entirely accurate, but it'll offer a good approximation.
My time is 1:10 pm right now, which means if the deadline were in my timezone, it'd be just under 13 hours away.
Subtract 3-4 hours to get eastern time, and you get 9-10 hours from deadline.
So there's less than 12 hours to get a lynch.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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So,
(expired on 2012-12-15 00:00:00)
Look good? (I find that countdown timers are more helpful for lazy people.)My academy.
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Oh, and by the way (not that it really matters, considering I'm a VT and as such have no action to submit over the weekend night),V/LA over weekend, standard stuff.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Every player in the game needs to post one of these three possibilities in their next post:
"If I was the messenger, I did not target Aco"
"If I was the messenger, I targeted Aco; nothing unusual seems to have happened"
"If I was the messenger, I targeted Aco; something unusual happened"
Needless to say, Nero and I were incredibly busy last night. There were 11 messages going into night. Now there's almost 60.
VOTE: Kublai Khan Man.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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I shared my thoughts with Nero on this last night.In post 3478, AngryPidgeon wrote:Nero, thoughts on the Zab wagon not going through?
Basically, I feel as if it would have gone through had zabriel actually been town.
Nero and I basically narrowed the suspect pool down to seven players:
3. zabriel
5. Kise
11. MagnaofIllusion
12. Yates
14. AngryPidgeon
16. jasonT1981
19. Kublai Khan
Since there are 4-5 scum left in the game, our goal was to eliminate two names from here. And that's where we begin to diverge in our reads.
He's suspicious of zab but paranoid thanks to MoI, he's got MoI, Kise, and AP as top picks (AP being my bottom pick and MoI/Kise still needing review), and jason/Yates are his version of MoI/Kise (under review), with the same null-leaning-town read that I have on MoI/Kise.
Soyeah. We're on the right track, but we're a little divided as to where to go from here.
One of the first things I'll be doing is an iso of Zoro, since he asked me to base my MoI read off of that, rather than MoI's posts. (And quite frankly, that's not too unreasonable a request, all things considered.)
And also, reviewing VCA; I compiled every votecount in my personal quicktopic for reference even when I'm away from the site.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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I almost did.In post 3485, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Mastin needs to explain why his vote wasn't moved to Zab before he went V/LA.
I literally almost,almostdid. It was right there. I was on the edge of it, I had it in my mind, I was weighing it constantly in my mind.
...But ultimately, I chose not to, for three reasons.
-The Yates wagon when I left was only one vote behind the zabriel wagon. With me still on it, there was a chance of it going through, whereas had I jumped ship it would have been condemned to fail for sure. I didn't want to kill it.
-I wanted to vote with AP. AP was on Yates, and had a pretty strong townread on zabriel. I had JUST gotten to thinking him town, so I wanted to work with him.
-I figured that my vote wasn't needed for the zabriel lynch, and that enough people would be around on deadline for it to be pushed through. After all, plenty of people seemed to want zabriel dead, and plenty more would be willing to lynch zab even if they had a townread on him to avoid the no-lynch.
You're quite correct, it was a mistake not to have switched, and when I learned on Monday that there was a no-lynch rather than a lynch, and that the lynch failed by one vote, I was instantly guilt-ridden. That failure was my one missing vote. But I had no way of seeing the future, of knowing my vote would have been needed.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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Eventually.In post 3493, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Acosmist / AngryP / pidgey / Peregrine / Mastin / KK / jasonT - VOTE ZAB FOR GREAT JUSTICE AND SEXY MAFIA HANGINGS
Tempting as it may be, I have no intention of a quicklynch today. My vote will most likely be going there, but there's no reason for it to be there right now. Zabriel's under plenty enough pressure. I intend to apply pressure elsewhere in the mean time.My academy.
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mastin2 The Second Coming
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BUNDLES-loads of neighborhood talk.In post 3497, Kublai Khan wrote:@mastin2 - Explain your Nero Cain townread.
You just can't fake that kind of town-talk. He and I got on at the same time, and basically had a back-and-forth real-time conversation. He even asked the mod if he could have extra time to talk to compensate for his time being v/la. You don't ask that kind of question as scum.
His logic is decent, his reasoning is good. His suspects are solid, and his posts are genuine. His tone is natural and synchronized to my posts pretty well. We worked as a team last night, and did so fairly well. (Like I said. The quicktopic now has 83% more content in there from a single night than from all other nights before.) If you want non-neighborhood reasoning, then apply this to his posts.
I said it before, and I'll say it again. His posts read as genuinely frustrated, that he's trying to communicate his suspicions and his logic and his reasons, but he's failing and doesn't understand why. Nero as a scumhunter has always had this problem--he's felt as if his reads are on the right track, but lacks the charisma, the persuasive power, to make others believe him. And this is exactly what I've been seeing from him. His thought process connects perfectly as town for me. I see where he's coming from, I see what he's trying to say, both defensively and offensively, and I get what he's been trying to do.
All from the town perspective. And that's just not something I can see him faking as scum.
Beyond that, I know for a fact that the neighborhood works exactly as he describes it. It is instant, and we only have night-talk. Yes, this is something that you have to take my word for, but unless you think we're both scum, then you know that at least one of us is town and telling the truth.
I even see his thought process for who he chooses to neighborize. If you knew Nero's history with Benmage, you'd understand exactly why Nero wouldn't neighborize Benmage, despite what Benmage's role is. And if you paid attention to Nero's read on Aco, you'd know why Nero wouldn't want Aco in the neighborhood. His targets make perfect sense to me.
He's as town as any player can be. Of all the players, he's a good 98.98% town. I can't get any more sure of a read than that without role info.My academy.
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Also, there IS information to be gained by not ending the day so soon.
"What info would that be?"
Among others, stronger stances on Jason, on Yates, on Kise, and on MoI, along with Khan for good measure. (And for Nero's sake, AP as well.)
What do I hope to accomplish by not speedwagoning?
-VCA. I have it in my QT. I want the chance to analyze it and post trends from it.
-Followthrough. VCA shows potential trends worth investigating, but investigating the trends tends to work better if the topic's actually open.
-Pressure. Zabriel's one scum, sure. Let's go with that. But there's more than one scum in the game, and I intend to weave them out.
-Re-readthrough. I am one of the only players on the site who is actually insane enough to try, but if you guys DON'T speedlynch, then I'll have the time to read all 141 pages.
-Isos. Though the re-readthrough will be more helpful overall, Isos are like VCA, showing a potential trend I might have missed. On the seven key players, six of them I need a better read on.
-Cases. I asked before night yesterday for people to prepare cases on jason arguing one way or the other. Did anyone actually follow through? If so, they need to post 'em. If not, they should do so during the day...not during the night.My academy.
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Hey, AP, can you paraphrase the nature of what was in the message.
Also,Nero:Do you still think the messenger is town? VERY important question, considering I explicitly told the messenger to target Aco and that there'd be no excuses for them having not done so.
(Important stuff like this is ALSO why we shouldn't quicklynch.)My academy.
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Eventually.In post 3523, Kise wrote:Which means Nero is town now so Mastin you and him should vote zab. I trust you guys now.
But I am NOT quicklynching. See 3521 for why we CAN gain info from not speedlynching him.
He's not escaping two days in a row. He's not going to get out of the noose. He's going to die today, yes.
That doesn't mean he needs to die in less than 24 hours. Three days.
Give me three dang days.
That too much to ask for?
If I procrastinate and don't finish my work by Friday, I'll vote for zab.
If I finish before then and I think there's nothing more to be gained, I'll vote for zab.
But for the love of gods, don't lynch him before then.My academy.
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Dammit, MoI, stop being such a stubborn ass.
72 hours. Let day five last for 72. dang. hours. By Friday, Zabriel will be lynched, whether I've finished my analysis or not.
But come on, you know that zab's getting lynched, and I've set out a time table as to when. You can wait for a couple more days. It's not going to be the end of the world for us to have not lynched him Tuesday (today) or Wednesday (tomorrow) or even Thursday.
Your rushing wouldn't even allow for some people to have posted today. If nothing else, at least let the prod time meter have passed.My academy.
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And if the scum actually try to swing a mislynch, then that itself is a scumclaim, no? Zab's getting lynched. Period, end of discussion.MoI wrote:3. We aren't pressuing alternate players today. DOING SO IS STUPID AN INVITES SCUM A CHANCE TO SWING A MISLYNCH WHEN ONE OF YOUR SUSPECTS IS INVARIABLY WRONG (OR YOU ARE SCUM TRYING HOPING TO GET ZAB OFF THE NOOSE).
Doesn't mean we don't have more to talk about. Why do tomorrow what you can do today?
That's my point. I don't know.zabriel wrote:Mastin, where is your vote going after I flip town?
I don't know where I'd go if you flipped town.
Heck, I don't even know where I'd go if you flipped scum.
That'sexactlywhy we shouldn't rush the lynch today. I guess I'd look at those on the zab lynch yesterday, and those on the zab lynch today (especially those who voted after my explicit request not to rush the day), but at this time (thanks to me having not had the time to follow through on my leads), I can't offer anything more than that since I have nothing else to give.
Hence, why waiting would be better.My academy.
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Bah.
Wasted 15 or so minutes on an iso of Zoro.
Why do I say wasted?
'Cause I got nothin' from it. Zilch. Could be scum, could be town, pretty much impossible to tell for sure; I can see either just as easily as the other. :/My academy.
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Lowell. Mastin's been gone for over a year. Not too hard to fake being him.In post 3565, AngryPidgeon wrote:Le edit: Who are you and why did you hack mastin's account?
1: Write long posts.
2: Make posts incoherent.
3: Add lots of emoticons. Especially ":P".
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PV, I compiled every votecount.
I've not yet analyzed it. The VCs are there, the A is to come later.
'Sides, as a general rule, I never link to a QT I've made 'til either the game's over or I'm dead. I mean, yeah, it's just my notes, but depending on how strict or loose the mod is, me posting it could theoretically be considered a violation of Rules 1 and 2. Especially since I copy-pasted the messages from the messenger word-for-word into said QT, for much the same reason; reference when I have no MS.net access.
I can paraphrase my QT, just like I can paraphrase the neighbor QT, but I don't link to it.My academy.
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Confirming this. He told me in his N3 message. His N2 message did heavily imply as much, but he was under the impression his name was sent with the message--it isn't; the messages are anonymous and he had to put his name in the N3 PM.In post 3588, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mykonian is the messenger.
I can also confirm that this is his style of wording in the PM; a stream-of-consciousness line of thoughts giving scumreads. (This is one of the reasons I was laughing so heavily when AP made the accusation about myk and I sharing a quicktopic--in a sense, we actuallywere. )
N3 he said he didn't trust Thor and that the El wagon was weird. Said town was at large doing nothing. He was afraid that if he claimed, AP/pidgey/MoI would use it as leverage to lynch him.
N2 he said that he sent the message to Tammy (again, he was under the mistaken impression his name was automatically included), saying it was a bad choice in hindsight but that he liked Tammy's reads d1. Said scum could be on either side of the Tammy wagon, but was seriously suspicious of those saying it was a clear-cut choice. He said that he thought I was going in the right direction (this is one of the main reasons I was hyper-aggressive D3, because I had the messenger's encouragement to be so), and said that {Yates, snifit, Nero, zabriel, acosmist, Jason, kise} were flying under the radar. He was particularly suspicious of Kise, and dismissed Nero (V/LA), aco (claim), and snifit (meta).
That's a pretty fair paraphrase of the PMs.My academy.
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Starting my VCA now, I'd like to say that I've caught onto a potential trend, which might suggest a zabriel-jason pairing. I found that jason's wagon collapsing didn't look too good. Both AV and zabriel switched off between votecounts 2 and 3 (on 3, the jason wagon is gone, except one stray vote).My academy.
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Should also be noted--jason's counterwagon was Yates, and that wagon also collapsed, between 3 and 4, with Khan hopping off of it.My academy.
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Forgot to clarify--jason had three total counterwagons: Yates, RC, and BC.
RC and BC were both town. The BC counterwagon in particular looks pretty bad; it has myk, Yates, and AP on it. (Well, their slots, anyway.)My academy.
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I found a VERY important little fact between votecounts 13/14 and 15:
A flash-wagon on Cyber appears, as a counter to both the AP wagon (which had ThAd jump ship off and jason jump on) and...the zabriel wagon, which has died completely, with Jason, Khan, andBCALL having gone to the other wagons. In other words, zabriel went from being lynch candidate #2 (behind AP, lynch candidate #1) to...completely off the radar, with the AP/Cyber/Melmond wagons all stronger than the zabriel wagon.
So right now, I'm putting heavy emphasis on Zabriel, Jason, and Khan, with an outside chance of Yates.My academy.
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IMPORTANT NOTICE:
Khan was on the Tammy lynch for some amount of time.
I had completely forgotten about this little fact, so it's definitely worth investigating.
(When I finish with coding the VCs which comes with a little A from time to time, I'll probably post 'em all in here once I replace the coding from html to bbcode, for more easy access to detailed analysis. I can pick up on some trends by looking at the VCs while coding, but most of my better analysis is done when I've already coded 'em all and can easily identify wagons on town and wagons with town on 'em.)My academy.
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Spoiler: Day OneSpoiler: Day TwoSpoiler: Day ThreeSpoiler: Day FourMy academy.
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"What does this VCA tell you, Mastin?"
By itself? Preeetty much nothing yet.
Without a Zab flip, there's not much to be gained from it other than two more names (zab and whoever dies tonight) being put in.
"Then what was the point?"
It highlighted some extremely concerning trends--Zabriel has strong ties to Khan, Yates, and Jason, with a minor tie to Kise.
You're free to analyze it more than I have, but for the moment, I think it's given me everything it's got to give until I look into the context of the trends I've found there.My academy.
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Nero, it's precisely BECAUSE OF the no-lynch that he has to be lynched. Town, scum, the no-lynch on him was very bad, and if he were to be town, we'd be coming back every single day until he was dead. (Gee, this'd be a great time for a dayvig, now, wouldn't it, MoI? )My academy.
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My vote's still on Khan for a reason. I want a KK lynch, but I don't think that we can ever get that kind of support today. Realistically, there's nobody else we'll ever be able to get a lynch on. KK? Nope. Kise? Better shot, but still no. MoI? Nope. Jason? Pretty decent, but still would fall short. Yates? I wish, but nope. AP? Not going to happen for quite some time, least of all today. Myk? Sadly the most likely, but I don't currently think he's scum, so I'd rather not.Nero wrote:SO WHY DID YOU TELL ME THAT YOU WANTED A kk lynch and voted KK TODAY but now have the stance that ZAB UST GO TODAY?
Plus, a zab flip gives a ton of info.
Do I want zab speedlynched, no; I'm doing analysis today, to try and get stronger reads. Do I think anyone other than zab will be lynched today? Also no; there's just not enough support, and thanks to the no-lynch, it's not the best idea anyways. Is he the best lynch in the game? If I finish my analysis, the answer might change, but with what I've currently got, the answer is going to be "yes". Is he the best lynch of all time, heck no; the lynch is upper-mediocre in terms of value.My academy.
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Nope. I did the VCA yesterday, but I ran outta time. Reading the game is for today. To be honest, without skimming, it'll be pretty much impossible for me to finish today with the amount of time I've got; I'm a fast reader, but I'm notIn post 3632, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, you done with your stuff?thatfast.
But I'll be done before I leave on Friday, and if not, my loss; the zab lynch goes through.
Speaking of which, I like what zabriel's doing; he's increasing his activity. Keep it up, zab. That's exactly what you need to do.
Continue posting suspects, continue posting anti-suspects, continue posting about potential patterns you're seeing, and continue posting about your reasons for your reads. Unlike most players, I actually listen to lynched town, so if you're town, that info won't go to waste.My academy.
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Eh, if it was going to happen, it was going to happen last night, before I started my analysis.In post 3652, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Funny that you have absolutely no fears about being the Nightkill ...
It didn't, so it probably won't. Especially since today, people have been rekindling old Mastin suspicion. (E.g., you, Nero, AP...) Not nearly enough to get me lynched, of course, but certainly enough to make me not look like an appetizing nightkill.
Don't get me wrong, I love the thought of being nightkilled, since it's a statement from the scum that if nothing else, I'm annoying. (Though I prefer it to have been because I'm a threat.) Add in that I do have to die before lylo, and that I have already claimed, and the scum killing me would be a huge honor. I just don't think it's going to happen, for much the same reasons why I'd love it to.My academy.
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Yates is scum.
Yates is ohsoscum.
And Jason's prob-scum, too.
Posts on this page, not good.
(Dealing with my computer having crashed, so little bit busy.)My academy.
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Having crashed, not in the process of crashing.
Past tense. ('Sides, even if my computer was crashing, I'd be able to switch to a laptop.)
Just means that right now, I'm a bit distracted trying to get it up and running as normal.My academy.
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VOTE: Yates.
Eh, makes more of a statement than my Khan vote.
Bit busy juggling other games at the moment, though I'll be reading 'til a hammer comes. ("What? You said you'd hammer!" I'm a goldfish. I changed my mind. )My academy.
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And I'm a VT as well; remember me claiming to try and incite MoI to do the same? (Yeeeeeeah, that went well... )My academy.
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And for what it's worth, I believe 'em all.
Khan, Yates, and Jason are probably my pick for scum, but I'm kinda lacking a fourth name...again.My academy.
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Spoiler: Town list
5. Kise
8. PeregrineV
11. Zoroaster MagnaofIllusion
12. Yates
16. jasonT1981
19. Kublai Khan
Six names, four scum slots. Yates-KK is pretty strong in my mind, but I'm also looking at Jason for another. PV's been in and out of my lists an incredible number of times, but I need to re-evaluate my stance on him. Kise might be a decent candidate for scum with Yates and KK, but that'd be a read pretty much purely on interactions alone, as by play Kise just reads as genuine to me. And like AP, I read MoI's frustration and stubbornness as being town this game.
Soyeah. I guess I'm a little bit closer to finding scum, but not nearly as much as I'd like.My academy.
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Side-note, I should probably look into AV's scum meta.
Lots of people are extremely hesitant to call Jason and Yates scum, based off of AV's votes on 'em, and the thought "would a scumbuddy really do that?" (Nero included.)
Something tells me that, yes, yes, AV would.
But without looking into his game history, I've got no proof.
Yes, this is meta, but it's the only way I'd be able to make an argument against that thought process.My academy.
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