Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Legacy (Game Over)

[AngryPidgeon]

There are 2 claimed VTs. Me and Zab.

And nero is not confirmed 3 shot and never will be.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Yates.

Eh, makes more of a statement than my Khan vote.

Bit busy juggling other games at the moment, though I'll be reading 'til a hammer comes. ("What? You said you'd hammer!" I'm a goldfish. I changed my mind. )

[AngryPidgeon]

Apparently being a goldfish is contagious

[mastin2]

And I'm a VT as well; remember me claiming to try and incite MoI to do the same? (Yeeeeeeah, that went well... )

[AngryPidgeon]

Oh right. That makes 3 VT claims.

[mastin2]

And for what it's worth, I believe 'em all.


Khan, Yates, and Jason are probably my pick for scum, but I'm kinda lacking a fourth name...again.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Bit busy juggling other games at the moment, though I'll be reading 'til a hammer comes. ("What? You said you'd hammer!" I'm a goldfish. I changed my mind. )

Scum.

[mastin2]

Spoiler: Town list

3. zabriel
^What can I say, call me a sucker. I see town.

4. Shahrizai mykonian
^If there were to be scum in Nero and myk, it'd be myk. But myk's interactions with people don't suggest scum. He's probably the weakest of the townreads here.

9. Amrun pidgey
^Pidgey's posting looks incredibly legit. His posts show a strong town thought process with a fluent flow, and more than that, he brings up many good points, one after another.

10. Acosmist
^I can buy his claim, honestly. The doubt surrounding it and the cries to test it with all the people pushing it, strongly make me lean towards it being legit.

14. I Am Innocent AngryPidgeon
^I've said it before, I'll say it again. For AP to be scum, he'd have to have tailored his play specifically to my expectations. He's basically everything I said about pidgey magnified ten times, showing an extremely natural train of thought and the impulsiveness yet stubbornness I've come to expect from him as town.

21. Nero Cain
^Others might not be able to tell what's been said in the neighborhood QT to make Nero such a strong townread, but I have seen it, and I know he's not faking it.

5. Kise
8. PeregrineV
11. Zoroaster MagnaofIllusion
12. Yates
16. jasonT1981
19. Kublai Khan

Six names, four scum slots. Yates-KK is pretty strong in my mind, but I'm also looking at Jason for another. PV's been in and out of my lists an incredible number of times, but I need to re-evaluate my stance on him. Kise might be a decent candidate for scum with Yates and KK, but that'd be a read pretty much purely on interactions alone, as by play Kise just reads as genuine to me. And like AP, I read MoI's frustration and stubbornness as being town this game.

Soyeah. I guess I'm a little bit closer to finding scum, but not nearly as much as I'd like.

[mastin2]

Side-note, I should probably look into AV's scum meta.

Lots of people are extremely hesitant to call Jason and Yates scum, based off of AV's votes on 'em, and the thought "would a scumbuddy really do that?" (Nero included.)

Something tells me that, yes, yes, AV would.

But without looking into his game history, I've got no proof.

Yes, this is meta, but it's the only way I'd be able to make an argument against that thought process.

[mastin2]

I'm going to go out on a limb and call a preliminary scumteam of KK-Yates-PV-Jason. Probably approximately in that order of strength. But again, citations needed; this is basically just gut off of memory on their interactions with each other, their actions over the course of the game, their wording, and such.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Seriously I recant my "not likely to be Town" read on Mastin.

He's scum.

[AngryPidgeon]

Im ready to hammer.

QQ about it now or forever hold your http-posts.

Today is over as far as I care.

[pidgey]

Phone posting

Dont hammer yet pls

Also mastin i want you to explain your Acomist read and to say what points ive said you agree in cause i really dont want you to be budding me and thats minda what i just felt. X.x. I mean i kinda give the attitute and genuinity but yeah.

[mastin2]

Im ready to hammer.

I'd rather you not, not yet.


4.5 (or is it 5.5? My time math sucks; ~4:00 pm my time with it being 11:30 at the time of this post) hours from now, sure.



For the record, did some AV research. The conclusion is that it'd definitely possible,

especially

for Yates, but it's not in any way definite. It's not something he wouldn't do, it's not something he definitely would do; it's something he'd do if he felt it convenient to do so is basically what I found.

[mastin2]

To explain the Aco read...well, it is mainly gut, honestly. I mean...I just kinda got the feeling that he'd be playing differently as scum. Though his play has largely been OMGUS in nature, he's been taunting players. Though he's been lurking a lot, when he is active he's been confrontational. Though his play has largely been reactionary, he's certainly made some proactive points. That's...not really much definite, but it's slightly supported by the stances people have been taking.

People are pushing for his claim to be tested, and people are pushing him as being potentially lying scum. People are casting that oh-so-ever-critical doubt on his claim right now. And though the town would be getting somewhat paranoid about the claim at this stage...well, I have a feeling that the scum are riling up that paranoia and encouraging it, to purposefully make us doubt him. Which I realize is also mostly gut, since there's no real definite proof of this.

So I'll fully admit that something else contributes, and that's to those who are calling him town. Their reasoning doesn't look scum-driven and they bring up good points, whereas in the case against Aco it's basically nothing but speculation. I know, this itself is still largely gut, but it's probably the strongest thing I've got, that the case against Aco is mainly speculation whereas the case for him being town is more solidified.

I wish I had more to say, but that's really all I've got.

[Yates]

For the record, did some AV research. The conclusion is that it'd definitely possible,

especially

for Yates, but it's not in any way definite. It's not something he wouldn't do, it's not something he definitely would do; it's something he'd do if he felt it convenient to do so is basically what I found.

That was about as productive as your VCA.

Six names, four scum slots.

How do you know there are four scum left?

Also mark me down as someone recanting a read on Mastin. If you are going to go through these motions, why aren't you willing to commit to a conclusion?

[AngryPidgeon]

Would you rather Mastin come up with a bullshit conclusion than a non-conclusion?

[AngryPidgeon]

I mean if hes scum and really wants to do some epic posturing, he could link an AV scum game whee he bussed early and say "Ya I could see AV throwing Yates under the bus early - its in his playbook."

And take less heat for waffling.

[Kise]

Thing about it is that AV was half-assing it. He didn't stick to his jason vote, and didn't push for the Yates vote. Null all around to me. He could have been parking votes on town, or lazily trying to get on wagons early to look good if his buds fucked up and got flipped. I've been reading into jason & Yate's character more than AV's interactions. I somewhat felt Yates might be a partner due to AV's lurking; I was thinking the lurk was to wait for shit to cool off, and AV would decide whether to keep his vote or alleviate any heat jason or Yates had.

Over time, it hasn't felt worthwhile to pursue. Null at best.

[Kise]

Myk would you be willing to prove your town read of Aco by targeting him tonight?

[mastin2]

How do you know there are four scum left?

If you are going to go through these motions, why aren't you willing to commit to a conclusion?

Spoiler: Numbers

Four scum left = simple math along with plain common sense setup design. 21 starting players, five starting scum (plus SK) is 23% (28% with the SK). Five scum left would be 28% (itself on the high end), which comes out to be 33% if you include the SK--too high. Three scum left would be 19% which is too low, and with the scum is bumped up to 23%, yet unless the scumteam is seriously souped up and/or the town PRs are all incredibly weak...four starting scum is just too low. It's either 4 or 5 starting scum, and if nothing else, experience tells me 4 is more likely. 4 starting scum is the realm of 16-20 players or so. (3 starting scum being 12-15 or so.) 5 starting scum is 21-24 or so, with 25+ being 6 starting scum.

I've been in a hundred games, Yates, and a disproportionately large number of them have been larges. Heck, I'm in the process of finalizing a Large Normal. I'm well-versed in setup design and balance, so I know my numbers.

As for the second, it's called common sense. If you want to put a name on it, it's my golden rule #2--reads to fit the evidence, not evidence to fit the reads.

I'm doing the research, having found a potential trend worthy of investigating.
The evidence isn't strong nor is it weak; it's meh. So, the conclusion from it is going to be meh. Saying there was nothing supporting it would be a lie; saying there was a bunch supporting it would also be a lie.

[jasonT1981]

unvote

to stop an early hammah

[mastin2]

Jason, I want you to nameclaim, and to do so immediately.

[jasonT1981]

why?

[AngryPidgeon]

Actually Mykonian should name claim in his next post.