Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Legacy (Game Over)

mastin2 · Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:32 am

Dang it. PV's posts do

not

make me want to lynch him.

Vote: Cheery Dog.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 12, 2012 9:34 am

Also, AP's posting exactly what he needs to in order to solidify the gut-townread.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:03 am

In post 3329, zabriel wrote:Mastin, why Cheery Dog right now?

'Cause I've literally got no one else.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:15 am

In post 3340, PeregrineV wrote:@Mastin- I know you have Yates=town because something something AV, but the lack of pressure at this response is disconcerting.

It's worth considering and looking in to, since Yates's drop in activity has pretty much waned my townread on him considerably.

But obviously, he's not getting lynched today. Definitely worth a careful consideration day five, but not today.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:00 pm

Hey, AP, out of curiosity, how often in your games do you wall?

I don't really remember seeing a wall from you, like, ever.

I probably have, but it's still not exactly what I think about when I think of you.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:16 am

myk, MoI's V/LA, so his lack of activity is understandable.

How would you feel about a Cheery Dog wagon?

His jumping ship from PV to AP looks opportunistic.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 6:28 am

In post 3361, AngryPidgeon wrote:Cheery, why are you voting me?

Three words, rhymes with "Weeeee, this fun!"

First letter of each word, H I S. Last letter each word, E S M.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:29 am

MoI, he just is.

I don't really have the time to explain why at the moment, and I'm fully aware of just how convincing my argument is (zilch

), but I'll do what I can later.

And PV, I was on AP before his wagon was the new hot thing. (If memory serves, was the second voter.) And I did so 'cause I had nothing better.
Cheery Dog's AP vote, however, looks opportunistic-as-hell.

Also, AP claiming spontaneously like he did = huge towntell, so GTFO his wagon and lynch someone else.

At this stage, I'd rather a PV lynch than an AP lynch, but I don't like a PV lynch. I won't support a myk lynch, but I can hear arguments for a Zab/Jason lynch. Especially if there's no Cheery Dog support.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:41 am

In post 3372, PeregrineV wrote:But you should be voting AP because you think he is scum.

Like hell I do. My vote was weak when I made it and I said as much. AP's posting has been such that he's once more managed to swing to the positive side of null.

Why is his claim a town-tell?

Spontaneous claiming from him.

Occam's razor--which is simpler, that AP tailored his play to my expectations of him as town, or that he's just town doing what he would as town?

The spontaneous claiming is something which he has zero reason to do right now as scum, ESPECIALLY since his claim was VT near the deadline with him as the leading wagon.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:02 am

And me voting him and calling it opportunistic isn't enough?

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:33 am

AngryPidgeon - 5 (Kublai Khan, Acosmist, Nero Cain, PeregrineV, Cheery Dog)
^The first half of this wagon is fine (with the

possible

exception of Aco), but the second half...not so much.

PeregrineV - 3 (zabriel, Kise, AngryPidgeon)
^Slightly more questionable.

zabriel - 3 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, mykonian)
^Ditto. Myk's town, so that's a good sign. (Also, find it ironic that MoI is on a wagon with two of his other suspects. Does he suspect they're bussing that strongly?

)

Bleh. Thought this'd be more helpful.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:51 am

*sigh*

I really hate this game.

Every damn suspect of mine.
Every dang person.

AP's dropping towntells like a boss.
Cheery Dog just softclaimed a PR.
Aco's going to be tested by Cheery Dog.

Kise and MoI are under revision still but are currently on the town side of null.
PV's posting gives mixed emotions, but there's definitely enough positive to make me not want him lynched.

GAH.

Screw it.

Vote: Zabriel.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:01 pm

Random VCA time. (Like I've got anything better to go off of.)

Melmond

- 11 (

Tammy

,

zabriel

, Kublai Khan, Nero Cain,

BloodCovenant, Benmage

, Yates, AngryPigeon,

snifit

,

rapidcanyon

, mykonian)

The possible scum are {Khan, Nero, Yates, AP, myk} here.
I don't think it's Nero, I don't think it's myk.

You know my stance on AP, so that means Khan and Yates are definitely worth another look.

Tammy

- 11 (

snifit

, Kise,

Benmage

, pidgey,

WrathChild

, MagnaofIllusion,

Acosmist

, AngryPidgeon, mykonian,

Elscouta

, Yates)

Yates is an honorary member, here, thanks to his willingness to be on the wagon. Here, the possible scum are {Kise, pidgey, MoI, AP, myk, Yates}.

Significantly more, hence why the Tammy wagon was so scummy. I don't think it's myk, you know my stance on AP.

Elscouta

- 9 (

Cheery Dog

,

Acosmist

, AngryPidgeon, MagnaofIllusion, Kise,

Thor665

, Kublai Khan, Yates, jasonT1981)

And here we get {AP, MoI, Kise, Khan, Yates, jason}

You know my stance on AP (though I'll admit it's concerning to see him on so many major wagons), and MoI/Kise are under consideration. But wow, Khan needs a check and Yates doubly so.

It's not conclusive in the least, but it's definitely a pattern I want to look into more.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:08 pm

Also worth mentioning--

Typically, there's a black and white with regards to me in my games.

I'm either dead-on when I replace in and get progressively further from the truth as I continue to live,
Or I'm horribly wrong and flip a switch and suddenly I'm a scumhunting god.

I don't think it's the latter, so I'm checking in to the former. Khan, Yates, Zab...

Is it definite, heck no, but I'm heavily considering it at the moment.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:10 pm

In post 3388, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, who is the messenger.

Not outing 'em.

I'll tell Nero when night comes. That way if the scum by some miracle nightkill me, he can say. (And if he's scum, well, then, the messenger's town anyway.

But he's not.)

The knowledge of who the messenger is won't be lost, 'kay?

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:22 pm

AP, if Cheery Dog is testing the claim, then that means the messenger won't.

And if they don't, well, then, keeping them hidden unless absolutely necessary seems best.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:28 pm

AP, stop rolefishing; you're blowing your towncred again.

Leave him be.

We're lynching elsewhere today. Preferably not PV (as that's one of Cheery Dog's thingies), so probably Zab.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:34 pm

Personally, I'd prefer the messenger to target Aco, anyway.

Cheery's claim pretty much confirms him as town.

And, yeah, I'd be down for a Yates wagon.
VOTE: Yates.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:45 pm

Okay. Plan time.

Lynch:

Our options for today are zabriel and Yates.
"Why not PeregrineV?" If for no other reason, because Cheery Dog has a cryptic result on him.
"Why not AngryPidgeon?" Look at his play right now and tell me it's scum.
It aint. He's town, and I do NOT want that lynch.
"Why not jason?" Too much resistance and not enough support for a flashwagon. If he's scum, we can deal with him on day five, but we can't lynch him today.
"Why not myk?" Don't be stupid.

Messenger:

Targets Aco. No questions asked, or I will bust their ass.

Cheery Dog:

Use your role however you see fit, but I request for you

not

to target Aco.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:49 am

In post 3410, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Mastin – Post 3387 is stupid. It’s not VCA it is what you expressly called bad VCA analysis in your rather long work in progress.. You aren’t looking at motivation and context just arbitrarily assuming scum are in a specific place when you acknowledge that you have experienced mislynch wagons that were all Town.

VCA is meant to highlight specific trends. In this case, the trend is being on the end-day wagon. I said that it was weak, no? But it highlighted a few players I had been glossing over, putting into light a potential trend which I had missed before. And said trend is something worth looking in to.

So it's perfectly within my guide. I'm not arbitrarily declaring some number on, some number off. I am, however, analyzing who is most likely to be scum of those on.

And, yeah, of course I'm not following lots of my own advice; the guide is as much meant for me as it is for the rest of the community. Do you know how tempting it's been for me to add a "Do as I say, not as I do." disclaimer to it?

Ultimately, I decided not to, since it's unnecessary, it brings into question my credibility, and since I intend for the guide to be used after my potential retirement, then people wouldn't be able to even know that I wasn't following it.

'Sides, the guide is exactly that: a guideline, more than a hard-fast rule.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:54 am

In post 3426, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Mastin – so what say you about Mykonian wagonnind today with BOTH players he has either voted or called scum (myself and Zab)?

In absolutely no way scummy; at WORST null.

Look at me, I'm negotiating with

terrorists

former top-scumreads and joining them on lynch candidates.
And look at you; you're on a wagon with two of your main suspects. (Or were; dunno where you/they went since then.)

I'd be more concerned if he WASN'T willing to vote with 'em.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:57 am

In post 3412, pappums rat wrote:zabriel - 4 (MagnaofIllusion,
jasonT1981, mykonian
, Cheery Dog)

(This is what I'm talking about, MoI. Last I checked, you had both jason and myk as scum with zab. You're concerned about myk being willing to go on a wagon with people he suspects, but it's a two-way street.

)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:12 am

AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
zabriel - 3 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, Cheery Dog)
PeregrineV - 1 (Kise)
Yates - 4 (mastin2, AngryPidgeon, zabriel, mykonian)
mykonian - 1 (pidgey)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Acosmist)

We're dangerously close to a no-lynch right now.

AP, zabriel, and Yates are the only wagons we have which can go through.
I'd strongly prefer not-AP, so again, it's either zabriel or Yates getting lynched today.
Everyone off both those wagons needs to choose a side.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:56 am

So, a rundown of my reads.

3. zabriel
^

Lynch candidate number one.

It's either him or Yates.

4. Shahrizai mykonian
^

Town.

5. Kise
^Town side of null. I am re-evaluating his posts, but he's definitely not someone I want to lynch any time soon, if for no other reason than because he's not antagonizing anyone and has shown an evolution of reads which seems natural, with him willing to show reason and compromise with people. Could he be scum? Most definitely, he could be.

Is

he scum? At the moment, I'm saying no.

8. PeregrineV
^Cryptic Cheery Dog result. Presumably, when Cheery Dog dies we'll know what his results mean, and until then, PV gets a pass.

9. Amrun pidgey
^Been on the townside of null for much of the game. Amrun's posts were natural to me. Furthermore, pidgey's posts have largely been stream-of-consciousness-styled. If he's scum, he's managed to disguise it well. While I think he's pretty much wrong on everything, his posts just come across as being town. So

weak town

is my overall assessment.

10. Acosmist
^Claim about to be tested by the messenger. If the messenger refuses, I'm lynching their ass tomorrow, period end of discussion. Claim may be double-tested by Cheery Dog, though that's his choice. At this time, I believe his claim, for what it's worth.

11. Zoroaster MagnaofIllusion
^I currently am in line with AP's reasoning. MoI's frustration this game seems entirely genuine. And not in a "scum not getting their way" kind of genuine; it legitimately looks like frustrated town. Like Kise, I'm re-evaluating him, and like Kise, he's on the townside of null.

12. Yates
^

Lynch candidate number two.

If zab's not lynched, Yates will be.

14. I Am Innocent AngryPidgeon
^Mid-tier town. I liked IaI's posts, and AP's been dropping towntell after towntell after towntell. Though it's certainly possible he's scum tailoring his play to my expectations, I sincerely doubt that; his play seems like his normal ever-changing self, really.

16. jasonT1981
^Worth a look at in future days, he's utterly and totally null for me right now. Those on both the town-jason and scum-jason sides of the debate, I request that overnight, you prepare your case for your stance, so that when day five dawns, you can present it and I can weigh both sides of the argument while double-checking the facts presented.

17. snifit Cheery Dog
^Pretty close to confirmed town for his claim.

19. Kublai Khan
^Has been getting a pass from me most of the game. It's about time I got paranoid about that. I've had him as strong town, but the trend I saw in the VCA is something I want to investigate some more. Since the game will be in night over the weekend, that means I won't really get a chance to reread all 138 pages ('specially given my V/LA), but I really think that I should do so soon, in light of the flips we've got so far. I've been relying a lot on isos, and I think I stand a LOT to gain by looking at things in their entire context once more.

21. Nero Cain
^Not only do I know his claim to be accurate, not only do I think his play has been town, but we've also got a Cheery Dog cryptic result on him, soyeah; I'm treating him like a mason for me right now.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:01 am

tl;dr version:

LYNCH CANDIDATES:
Yates
zabriel

INVESTIGATING (as close as I've got to scumreads):
Kublai Khan
jasonT1981

RE-EVALUATING:
MagnaofIllusion
Kise

TIME WILL TELL (literally!):
Acosmist
PeregrineV

TOWNLEANS:
AngryPidgeon
pidgey

TOWN:
Cheery Dog
Nero Cain
mykonian

Strongest at top for all.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:02 am

Also, top-o'-page votecount.
AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
zabriel - 4 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, Cheery Dog, Kise)
Yates - 4 (mastin2, AngryPidgeon, zabriel, mykonian)
mykonian - 1 (pidgey)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Acosmist)

As a reminder,

we need a lynch FAST

; we're DANGEROUSLY close to deadline.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:12 am

My timezone math is terrible, so this is not going to be entirely accurate, but it'll offer a good approximation.

My time is 1:10 pm right now, which means if the deadline were in my timezone, it'd be just under 13 hours away.

Subtract 3-4 hours to get eastern time, and you get 9-10 hours from deadline.

So there's less than 12 hours to get a lynch.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:18 am

So,
(expired on 2012-12-15 00:00:00)

Look good? (I find that countdown timers are more helpful for lazy people.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 14, 2012 12:37 pm

Oh, and by the way (not that it really matters, considering I'm a VT and as such have no action to submit over the weekend night),

V/LA over weekend

, standard stuff.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:25 am

Every player in the game needs to post one of these three possibilities in their next post:

"If I was the messenger, I did not target Aco"
"If I was the messenger, I targeted Aco; nothing unusual seems to have happened"
"If I was the messenger, I targeted Aco; something unusual happened"

Needless to say, Nero and I were incredibly busy last night. There were 11 messages going into night. Now there's almost 60.

VOTE: Kublai Khan Man.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:32 am

In post 3478, AngryPidgeon wrote:Nero, thoughts on the Zab wagon not going through?

I shared my thoughts with Nero on this last night.

Basically, I feel as if it would have gone through had zabriel actually been town.

Nero and I basically narrowed the suspect pool down to seven players:

3. zabriel
5. Kise
11. MagnaofIllusion
12. Yates
14. AngryPidgeon
16. jasonT1981
19. Kublai Khan

Since there are 4-5 scum left in the game, our goal was to eliminate two names from here. And that's where we begin to diverge in our reads.

He's suspicious of zab but paranoid thanks to MoI, he's got MoI, Kise, and AP as top picks (AP being my bottom pick and MoI/Kise still needing review), and jason/Yates are his version of MoI/Kise (under review), with the same null-leaning-town read that I have on MoI/Kise.

Soyeah. We're on the right track, but we're a little divided as to where to go from here.

One of the first things I'll be doing is an iso of Zoro, since he asked me to base my MoI read off of that, rather than MoI's posts. (And quite frankly, that's not too unreasonable a request, all things considered.)
And also, reviewing VCA; I compiled every votecount in my personal quicktopic for reference even when I'm away from the site.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:39 am

In post 3485, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Mastin needs to explain why his vote wasn't moved to Zab before he went V/LA.

I almost did.

I literally almost,

almost

did. It was right there. I was on the edge of it, I had it in my mind, I was weighing it constantly in my mind.

...But ultimately, I chose not to, for three reasons.
-The Yates wagon when I left was only one vote behind the zabriel wagon. With me still on it, there was a chance of it going through, whereas had I jumped ship it would have been condemned to fail for sure. I didn't want to kill it.
-I wanted to vote with AP. AP was on Yates, and had a pretty strong townread on zabriel. I had JUST gotten to thinking him town, so I wanted to work with him.
-I figured that my vote wasn't needed for the zabriel lynch, and that enough people would be around on deadline for it to be pushed through. After all, plenty of people seemed to want zabriel dead, and plenty more would be willing to lynch zab even if they had a townread on him to avoid the no-lynch.

You're quite correct, it was a mistake not to have switched, and when I learned on Monday that there was a no-lynch rather than a lynch, and that the lynch failed by one vote, I was instantly guilt-ridden.

That failure was my one missing vote. But I had no way of seeing the future, of knowing my vote would have been needed.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:42 am

In post 3493, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Acosmist / AngryP / pidgey / Peregrine / Mastin / KK / jasonT - VOTE ZAB FOR GREAT JUSTICE AND SEXY MAFIA HANGINGS

Eventually.

Tempting as it may be, I have no intention of a quicklynch today. My vote will most likely be going there, but there's no reason for it to be there right now. Zabriel's under plenty enough pressure. I intend to apply pressure elsewhere in the mean time.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:53 am

In post 3497, Kublai Khan wrote:@mastin2 - Explain your Nero Cain townread.

BUNDLES-loads of neighborhood talk.

You just can't fake that kind of town-talk. He and I got on at the same time, and basically had a back-and-forth real-time conversation. He even asked the mod if he could have extra time to talk to compensate for his time being v/la. You don't ask that kind of question as scum.

His logic is decent, his reasoning is good. His suspects are solid, and his posts are genuine. His tone is natural and synchronized to my posts pretty well. We worked as a team last night, and did so fairly well. (Like I said. The quicktopic now has 83% more content in there from a single night than from all other nights before.) If you want non-neighborhood reasoning, then apply this to his posts.

I said it before, and I'll say it again. His posts read as genuinely frustrated, that he's trying to communicate his suspicions and his logic and his reasons, but he's failing and doesn't understand why. Nero as a scumhunter has always had this problem--he's felt as if his reads are on the right track, but lacks the charisma, the persuasive power, to make others believe him. And this is exactly what I've been seeing from him. His thought process connects perfectly as town for me. I see where he's coming from, I see what he's trying to say, both defensively and offensively, and I get what he's been trying to do.

All from the town perspective. And that's just not something I can see him faking as scum.
Beyond that, I know for a fact that the neighborhood works exactly as he describes it. It is instant, and we only have night-talk. Yes, this is something that you have to take my word for, but unless you think we're both scum, then you know that at least one of us is town and telling the truth.

I even see his thought process for who he chooses to neighborize. If you knew Nero's history with Benmage, you'd understand exactly why Nero wouldn't neighborize Benmage, despite what Benmage's role is. And if you paid attention to Nero's read on Aco, you'd know why Nero wouldn't want Aco in the neighborhood. His targets make perfect sense to me.

He's as town as any player can be. Of all the players, he's a good 98.98% town. I can't get any more sure of a read than that without role info.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:02 am

Also, there IS information to be gained by not ending the day so soon.

"What info would that be?"

Among others, stronger stances on Jason, on Yates, on Kise, and on MoI, along with Khan for good measure. (And for Nero's sake, AP as well.)

What do I hope to accomplish by not speedwagoning?
-VCA. I have it in my QT. I want the chance to analyze it and post trends from it.
-Followthrough. VCA shows potential trends worth investigating, but investigating the trends tends to work better if the topic's actually open.
-Pressure. Zabriel's one scum, sure. Let's go with that. But there's more than one scum in the game, and I intend to weave them out.
-Re-readthrough. I am one of the only players on the site who is actually insane enough to try, but if you guys DON'T speedlynch, then I'll have the time to read all 141 pages.
-Isos. Though the re-readthrough will be more helpful overall, Isos are like VCA, showing a potential trend I might have missed. On the seven key players, six of them I need a better read on.
-Cases. I asked before night yesterday for people to prepare cases on jason arguing one way or the other. Did anyone actually follow through? If so, they need to post 'em. If not, they should do so during the day...not during the night.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:08 am

Hey, AP, can you paraphrase the nature of what was in the message.

Also,

Nero:

Do you still think the messenger is town? VERY important question, considering I explicitly told the messenger to target Aco and that there'd be no excuses for them having not done so.

(Important stuff like this is ALSO why we shouldn't quicklynch.)

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:11 am

In post 3523, Kise wrote:Which means Nero is town now so Mastin you and him should vote zab. I trust you guys now.

Eventually.

But I am NOT quicklynching. See 3521 for why we CAN gain info from not speedlynching him.

He's not escaping two days in a row. He's not going to get out of the noose. He's going to die today, yes.

That doesn't mean he needs to die in less than 24 hours. Three days.
Give me three dang days.

That too much to ask for?

If I procrastinate and don't finish my work by Friday, I'll vote for zab.
If I finish before then and I think there's nothing more to be gained, I'll vote for zab.

But for the love of gods, don't lynch him before then.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:19 am

Dammit, MoI, stop being such a stubborn ass.

72 hours. Let day five last for 72. dang. hours. By Friday, Zabriel will be lynched, whether I've finished my analysis or not.
But come on, you know that zab's getting lynched, and I've set out a time table as to when. You can wait for a couple more days. It's not going to be the end of the world for us to have not lynched him Tuesday (today) or Wednesday (tomorrow) or even Thursday.

Your rushing wouldn't even allow for some people to have posted today. If nothing else, at least let the prod time meter have passed.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:42 am

MoI wrote:3. We aren't pressuing alternate players today. DOING SO IS STUPID AN INVITES SCUM A CHANCE TO SWING A MISLYNCH WHEN ONE OF YOUR SUSPECTS IS INVARIABLY WRONG (OR YOU ARE SCUM TRYING HOPING TO GET ZAB OFF THE NOOSE).

And if the scum actually try to swing a mislynch, then that itself is a scumclaim, no? Zab's getting lynched. Period, end of discussion.

Doesn't mean we don't have more to talk about. Why do tomorrow what you can do today?

zabriel wrote:Mastin, where is your vote going after I flip town?

That's my point. I don't know.
I don't know where I'd go if you flipped town.

Heck, I don't even know where I'd go if you flipped scum.

That's

exactly

why we shouldn't rush the lynch today. I guess I'd look at those on the zab lynch yesterday, and those on the zab lynch today (especially those who voted after my explicit request not to rush the day), but at this time (thanks to me having not had the time to follow through on my leads), I can't offer anything more than that since I have nothing else to give.

Hence, why waiting would be better.

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:47 am

Bah.

Wasted 15 or so minutes on an iso of Zoro.

Why do I say wasted?

'Cause I got nothin' from it. Zilch. Could be scum, could be town, pretty much impossible to tell for sure; I can see either just as easily as the other. :/

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:52 am

In post 3565, AngryPidgeon wrote:Le edit: Who are you and why did you hack mastin's account?

Lowell. Mastin's been gone for over a year. Not too hard to fake being him.
1: Write long posts.
2: Make posts incoherent.
3: Add lots of emoticons. Especially ":P".

mastin2 · Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:27 am

PV, I compiled every votecount.

I've not yet analyzed it. The VCs are there, the A is to come later.

'Sides, as a general rule, I never link to a QT I've made 'til either the game's over or I'm dead. I mean, yeah, it's just my notes, but depending on how strict or loose the mod is, me posting it could theoretically be considered a violation of Rules 1 and 2. Especially since I copy-pasted the messages from the messenger word-for-word into said QT, for much the same reason; reference when I have no MS.net access.

I can paraphrase my QT, just like I can paraphrase the neighbor QT, but I don't link to it.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:48 am

In post 3588, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mykonian is the messenger.

Confirming this. He told me in his N3 message. His N2 message did heavily imply as much, but he was under the impression his name was sent with the message--it isn't; the messages are anonymous and he had to put his name in the N3 PM.

I can also confirm that this is his style of wording in the PM; a stream-of-consciousness line of thoughts giving scumreads. (This is one of the reasons I was laughing so heavily when AP made the accusation about myk and I sharing a quicktopic--in a sense, we actually

were

.

)

N3 he said he didn't trust Thor and that the El wagon was weird. Said town was at large doing nothing. He was afraid that if he claimed, AP/pidgey/MoI would use it as leverage to lynch him.

N2 he said that he sent the message to Tammy (again, he was under the mistaken impression his name was automatically included), saying it was a bad choice in hindsight but that he liked Tammy's reads d1. Said scum could be on either side of the Tammy wagon, but was seriously suspicious of those saying it was a clear-cut choice. He said that he thought I was going in the right direction (this is one of the main reasons I was hyper-aggressive D3, because I had the messenger's encouragement to be so), and said that {Yates, snifit, Nero, zabriel, acosmist, Jason, kise} were flying under the radar. He was particularly suspicious of Kise, and dismissed Nero (V/LA), aco (claim), and snifit (meta).

That's a pretty fair paraphrase of the PMs.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:43 am

Starting my VCA now, I'd like to say that I've caught onto a potential trend, which might suggest a zabriel-jason pairing. I found that jason's wagon collapsing didn't look too good. Both AV and zabriel switched off between votecounts 2 and 3 (on 3, the jason wagon is gone, except one stray vote).

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:46 am

Should also be noted--jason's counterwagon was Yates, and that wagon also collapsed, between 3 and 4, with Khan hopping off of it.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:48 am

Forgot to clarify--jason had three total counterwagons: Yates, RC, and BC.
RC and BC were both town. The BC counterwagon in particular looks pretty bad; it has myk, Yates, and AP on it. (Well, their slots, anyway.)

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:17 am

I found a VERY important little fact between votecounts 13/14 and 15:

A flash-wagon on Cyber appears, as a counter to both the AP wagon (which had ThAd jump ship off and jason jump on) and...the zabriel wagon, which has died completely, with Jason, Khan, and

BC

ALL having gone to the other wagons. In other words, zabriel went from being lynch candidate #2 (behind AP, lynch candidate #1) to...completely off the radar, with the AP/Cyber/Melmond wagons all stronger than the zabriel wagon.

So right now, I'm putting heavy emphasis on Zabriel, Jason, and Khan, with an outside chance of Yates.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:43 am

IMPORTANT NOTICE:

Khan was on the Tammy lynch for some amount of time.

I had completely forgotten about this little fact, so it's definitely worth investigating.

(When I finish with coding the VCs which comes with a little A from time to time, I'll probably post 'em all in here once I replace the coding from html to bbcode, for more easy access to detailed analysis. I can pick up on some trends by looking at the VCs while coding, but most of my better analysis is done when I've already coded 'em all and can easily identify wagons on town and wagons with town on 'em.)

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:27 am

Spoiler: Day One

Spoiler: Day Two

Spoiler: Day Three

Spoiler: Day Four

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:35 am

"What does this VCA tell you, Mastin?"

By itself? Preeetty much nothing yet.

Without a Zab flip, there's not much to be gained from it other than two more names (zab and whoever dies tonight) being put in.

"Then what was the point?"

It highlighted some extremely concerning trends--Zabriel has strong ties to Khan, Yates, and Jason, with a minor tie to Kise.

You're free to analyze it more than I have, but for the moment, I think it's given me everything it's got to give until I look into the context of the trends I've found there.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:01 pm

Nero, it's precisely BECAUSE OF the no-lynch that he has to be lynched. Town, scum, the no-lynch on him was very bad, and if he were to be town, we'd be coming back every single day until he was dead. (Gee, this'd be a great time for a dayvig, now, wouldn't it, MoI?

)

mastin2 · Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:39 pm

Nero wrote:SO WHY DID YOU TELL ME THAT YOU WANTED A kk lynch and voted KK TODAY but now have the stance that ZAB UST GO TODAY?

My vote's still on Khan for a reason.

I want a KK lynch, but I don't think that we can ever get that kind of support today. Realistically, there's nobody else we'll ever be able to get a lynch on. KK? Nope. Kise? Better shot, but still no. MoI? Nope. Jason? Pretty decent, but still would fall short. Yates? I wish, but nope. AP? Not going to happen for quite some time, least of all today. Myk? Sadly the most likely, but I don't currently think he's scum, so I'd rather not.

Plus, a zab flip gives a ton of info.

Do I want zab speedlynched, no; I'm doing analysis today, to try and get stronger reads. Do I think anyone other than zab will be lynched today? Also no; there's just not enough support, and thanks to the no-lynch, it's not the best idea anyways. Is he the best lynch in the game? If I finish my analysis, the answer might change, but with what I've currently got, the answer is going to be "yes". Is he the best lynch of all time, heck no; the lynch is upper-mediocre in terms of value.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:13 am

In post 3632, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, you done with your stuff?

Nope. I did the VCA yesterday, but I ran outta time. Reading the game is for today. To be honest, without skimming, it'll be pretty much impossible for me to finish today with the amount of time I've got; I'm a fast reader, but I'm not

that

fast.

But I'll be done before I leave on Friday, and if not, my loss; the zab lynch goes through.

Speaking of which, I like what zabriel's doing; he's increasing his activity. Keep it up, zab. That's exactly what you need to do.

Continue posting suspects, continue posting anti-suspects, continue posting about potential patterns you're seeing, and continue posting about your reasons for your reads. Unlike most players, I actually listen to lynched town, so if you're town, that info won't go to waste.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:37 am

In post 3652, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Funny that you have absolutely no fears about being the Nightkill ...

Eh, if it was going to happen, it was going to happen last night, before I started my analysis.

It didn't, so it probably won't. Especially since today, people have been rekindling old Mastin suspicion. (E.g., you, Nero, AP...) Not nearly enough to get me lynched, of course, but certainly enough to make me not look like an appetizing nightkill.

Don't get me wrong, I love the thought of being nightkilled, since it's a statement from the scum that if nothing else, I'm annoying.

(Though I prefer it to have been because I'm a threat.) Add in that I do have to die before lylo, and that I have already claimed, and the scum killing me would be a huge honor. I just don't think it's going to happen, for much the same reasons why I'd love it to.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:58 am

Yates is scum.

Yates is oh

so

scum.

And Jason's prob-scum, too.

Posts on this page, not good.

(Dealing with my computer having crashed, so little bit busy.)

mastin2 · Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:03 am

Having crashed, not in the process of crashing.

Past tense. ('Sides, even if my computer was crashing, I'd be able to switch to a laptop.)

Just means that right now, I'm a bit distracted trying to get it up and running as normal.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:23 am

VOTE: Yates.

Eh, makes more of a statement than my Khan vote.

Bit busy juggling other games at the moment, though I'll be reading 'til a hammer comes. ("What? You said you'd hammer!" I'm a goldfish. I changed my mind.

)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:24 am

And I'm a VT as well; remember me claiming to try and incite MoI to do the same? (Yeeeeeeah, that went well...

)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:29 am

And for what it's worth, I believe 'em all.

Khan, Yates, and Jason are probably my pick for scum, but I'm kinda lacking a fourth name...again.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:38 am

Spoiler: Town list

5. Kise
8. PeregrineV
11. Zoroaster MagnaofIllusion
12. Yates
16. jasonT1981
19. Kublai Khan

Six names, four scum slots. Yates-KK is pretty strong in my mind, but I'm also looking at Jason for another. PV's been in and out of my lists an incredible number of times, but I need to re-evaluate my stance on him. Kise might be a decent candidate for scum with Yates and KK, but that'd be a read pretty much purely on interactions alone, as by play Kise just reads as genuine to me. And like AP, I read MoI's frustration and stubbornness as being town this game.

Soyeah. I guess I'm a little bit closer to finding scum, but not nearly as much as I'd like.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:42 am

Side-note, I should probably look into AV's scum meta.

Lots of people are extremely hesitant to call Jason and Yates scum, based off of AV's votes on 'em, and the thought "would a scumbuddy really do that?" (Nero included.)

Something tells me that, yes, yes, AV would.

But without looking into his game history, I've got no proof.

Yes, this is meta, but it's the only way I'd be able to make an argument against that thought process.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:43 am

I'm going to go out on a limb and call a preliminary scumteam of KK-Yates-PV-Jason. Probably approximately in that order of strength. But again, citations needed; this is basically just gut off of memory on their interactions with each other, their actions over the course of the game, their wording, and such.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:29 am

In post 3711, AngryPidgeon wrote:Im ready to hammer.

I'd rather you not, not yet.

4.5 (or is it 5.5? My time math sucks; ~4:00 pm my time with it being 11:30 at the time of this post) hours from now, sure.

For the record, did some AV research. The conclusion is that it'd definitely possible,

especially

for Yates, but it's not in any way definite. It's not something he wouldn't do, it's not something he definitely would do; it's something he'd do if he felt it convenient to do so is basically what I found.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:36 am

To explain the Aco read...well, it is mainly gut, honestly. I mean...I just kinda got the feeling that he'd be playing differently as scum. Though his play has largely been OMGUS in nature, he's been taunting players. Though he's been lurking a lot, when he is active he's been confrontational. Though his play has largely been reactionary, he's certainly made some proactive points. That's...not really much definite, but it's slightly supported by the stances people have been taking.

People are pushing for his claim to be tested, and people are pushing him as being potentially lying scum. People are casting that oh-so-ever-critical doubt on his claim right now. And though the town would be getting somewhat paranoid about the claim at this stage...well, I have a feeling that the scum are riling up that paranoia and encouraging it, to purposefully make us doubt him. Which I realize is also mostly gut, since there's no real definite proof of this.

So I'll fully admit that something else contributes, and that's to those who are calling him town. Their reasoning doesn't look scum-driven and they bring up good points, whereas in the case against Aco it's basically nothing but speculation. I know, this itself is still largely gut, but it's probably the strongest thing I've got, that the case against Aco is mainly speculation whereas the case for him being town is more solidified.

I wish I had more to say, but that's really all I've got.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:24 am

In post 3715, Yates wrote:How do you know there are four scum left?

If you are going to go through these motions, why aren't you willing to commit to a conclusion?

Spoiler: Numbers

As for the second, it's called common sense. If you want to put a name on it, it's my golden rule #2--reads to fit the evidence, not evidence to fit the reads.

I'm doing the research, having found a potential trend worthy of investigating.
The evidence isn't strong nor is it weak; it's meh. So, the conclusion from it is going to be meh. Saying there was nothing supporting it would be a lie; saying there was a bunch supporting it would also be a lie.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:00 pm

Jason, I want you to nameclaim, and to do so immediately.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:09 pm

In post 3723, jasonT1981 wrote:why?

Could clear you as town, when you're currently under heavy suspicion.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:44 pm

Oh, wow. Was not expecting that.

If jason's scum, we know that he had that safeclaim and planned to use it from the beginning, but right now, I'm legitimately unsure. I'll need to think about it. I was not expecting this as either alignment, really.

But if I had to say, I'd guess town. (Well, so much for my scumteam theory.

Was going KK-Yates-PV-Jason, but if jason's town, that's out.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:52 pm

In post 76, jasonT1981 wrote:Even though it is a theme game, it is not always wise to assume roles based on characters. I have seen theme games were main characters were bad guys in mafia games. Games were bad guys in shows were town in games. Role guessing based on actual characteristics is pretty short sighted. As it is a theme game, I don't think it is wise right now trying to make any sense of things until later flips where we can anazilze things better..

This is what sparked it. Obviously, I knew jason was claiming a Harry Potter character, but I was expecting him to claim a morally ambiguous character. I'm weighing in my mind what type of character Moaning Myrtle is, and whether she fits the bill or not. I mean, she's definitely a minor character, and that does support jason's stance of not knowing about the major characters, but I was trying to actually confirm jason as scum (not town) with his nameclaim.

And now I'm not sure. In trying to prove he's scum, I mighta accidentally proved he was town.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:55 pm

(And, yes, that is where I am in my reread, sad as it is that I've only gotten that far. Finished four pages, but haven't started so much as the fifth.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:57 pm

In post 3742, Kise wrote:nah nah naaaah how is a name claim gonna clear you? Maybe I should be asking mastin this question.

As I said, I actually thought it'd do the opposite: condemn him.

QT wrote:(And in my latest post, I actually meant "could condemn you as scum, if I'm right about the stuff in /m34 I posted about". )

(M34, being the 34th message in my personal QT, where I point out the post as being bad.)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:58 pm

(Really, do you think jason woulda nameclaimed if I said, "It could prove you're scum"?

)

mastin2 · Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:04 pm

In post 3751, Kise wrote:You put smilies in your personal QT, mastin?

This surprises you?

Really, this is how I talk online. When I focus really hard and wish to either have an official voice (such as, say, when writing notes for my novel--the temptation was there, OH SO STRONGLY, to use emoticons in my author notes, but given as how they're supposed to be official, I fought it off), or wish to not be mastin2 (as in, be an alt which my constant usage of smileys would help to give me away), then I'll not do so.

Other than those two circumstances, I'm going to use them all the time, since, well, I'm ME; it'd freak everyone out (including myself) if I didn't.

/anyway, should be leaving.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:27 pm

VOTE: Jason.

Yeah, we're testing that claim today. Zero ifs, ands, or buts.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 24, 2012 7:39 pm

And for the record, yes, I support a Yates lynch.
And Khan's a likely scumbuddy.

Beyond that...I really don't know. To be honest...well...

AP's dropped towntell after towntell after towntell after towntell. 'Less he's tailored his scum-play to my expectations, he's town. His thought process is highly transparent and he has this aura of pro-town around him. (Top-tier town.)
We're testing jason's claim today.
Kise was there as an early suspect of mine, but his posts have read as honest. (Top suspects by POE.)
Myk's the messenger, and his stances kinda felt town. :/ (Among my top suspects by POE, I'd guess.)
I'm town, sad as that is.

Pidgey's posts seem much like AP's do. At this stage, I'd go nullish-town.
I never got to finishing my reread before going on vacation, but what little I had done showed some strong townish posting from Aco in the early stages of the game. (Low-tier town, I'd guess.)
And then there's Nero. He was gone from the QT last night, but his previous QT posts were really strong town. :/ (Mid-tier town, I'd guess.)

GRAH.

mastin2 · Mon Dec 24, 2012 8:51 pm

That said...before the day ends, we need to finish a massclaim.
AP, Kise, and I are all claimed VTs.
Nero's claimed his role, myk's claimed his role, Aco's claimed his role, and jason's claimed his.

That really only leaves us three people unclaimed: Yates, Khan, and pidgey.
I'd prefer them claiming in that order.

mastin2 · Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:30 pm

Screw it.

VOTE: Yates.

Khan and Yates's posts on this page reek of desperation and misdirection.

Add in Yates not claiming despite me laying out exactly why we should be massclaiming now, and, well, it can't get more obvious than that. I don't know who the other scum are, but these two definitely are scum, and I'd rather not try to hit their scumbuddies and end up letting these two slide by.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:52 pm

mykonian wrote:FUCK YOU MASTIN I TRUSTED YOU.

And if you're town, you still can, but I'm preeeeeeeeeetty sure you're scum, here, myk.

Not just for the vote, though I'd be lying if I said that it didn't contribute.

But for this

How the bloody hell could anyone think that at this point it would be a good idea to lynch Jason "to have him confirmed"?

As your reason when I have already switched votes from jason (having decided myself that it's a bad idea), combined with this

Because it served no purpose other then angering him. Nobody ever followed. That means at least couple townies apparently think someone who has no concrete reads right now (like, his only read, on me, he's weakened recently "because it might be the rage talking" or something like that) is a townlike character. I'd lynch him with all pleasure but you guys rather lose to pidgey scum, it seems. I wasted my days on him, now someone else can do the work if they want him lynched.

...Which doesn't seem pro-town at all, combined with MoI dieing after having pushed so hard on myk-scum, combined with a fairly anti-town usage of the role and anti-town version of it (annonymous messages) along with MoI's death after speculating about one of {Nero, myk} being scum (and me trusting Nero more), along with in general fairly scummy play, along with condemning interactions with Yates and Khan.

Soyeah. I think you're scum, but I'd be the first to admit the above is less-than-stellar reasoning. Go shoot it full of holes; I could use your defense against it to help me get a stronger read.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:00 pm

In post 3889, pidgey wrote:Mastin- You mentioned i am town because i sometimes have unique arguments and like, i bring good points or something. What do you refer too?

Stuff like this in your posts.

No, seriously, this is exactly the kind of thought process from you which shows that you definitely look like you're thinking for yourself and trying to make sense of things. It's littered through your iso. If I weren't on vacation, maybe I could go through the trouble of quoting it all, but really, the list of things which show original thought is much longer than things which don't.

So quite frankly, the answer's right there in your iso. It's pretty self-explanatory, really. You bring up original thoughts, which often are strong, and many times I find myself going, "wow, that's actually a dang-good post" for one reason or another, be it a good thought, good reasoning, good insight, good question, whatever.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:05 pm

In post 3897, Yates wrote:Okay, since it appears my claim is holding things up...

I am Alastor "Mad Eye" Moody, a pure-blood wizard and the most powerful Auror of all time. As such, I am a highly trained specialist able to identify anyone performing crimes related to Dark Arts [can tell if the person I'm watching uses Dark Arts]. Half the cells of Azkaban are filled thanks to me. I also have a magic eye that lets me see through anything including invisible cloaks [can't be blocked].

I can tell you at this time that Nero does NOT dabble in the Dark Arts.

You can't get more scumclaimed than this.

Yates is claiming HP-specific cop.
When we had Benmage, also an HP character, able to detect ALL scum, as proven by the Tammy result he got N1.

mastin2 · Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:08 pm

Also, Yates only claiming a result on Nero but not others despite having had five days to check is also pretty bullshit.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 28, 2012 10:45 pm

Spoiler: rambling

pidgey wrote:but what the hell is with mastin "pretty sure" myk is scum when myk was TOWN ALL GAME.

Not ALL the game, only MOST of the game.

Butyeah. Golden Rule #2, reads to fit the evidence, NOT evidence to fit the reads. My read on myk has simply evolved from what it was. In no other time is it as important as right now for me to show that critical level of doubt and re-evaluation.

Hence, why I want myk to come in and dismantle my reasoning for him being scum. I want people to comment on it, and I want to receive feedback.
Also, for this very reason, I'm hearing the argument (BS as it is--no seriously, you can't get much worse BS than this

) for Yates being town, even though I'm a good 90% sure he's scum.
And for that very reason, I'm hearing Khan out on his AP-is-scum stance, despite me being a good....oh, probably 85% certain that AP's town and 80% sure Khan's scum.

If it weren't for this blasted vacation, I'd be doing a full reread (well, continuing the one I started before I left, anyway

), but since I am on the LA, that means that I'll just have to make do with what I've got, which is primarily the content of the thread being posted now, combined with my memory of past events (BAAAAAAAAAD idea to rely on my memory; IT LIES!

But I don't really have a choice, thanks to how difficult it is to go check out every single fact I think of) and quite a lot of gut.

Butyeah. While I fully endorse town players showing paranoia in lylo, pidgey (it might not show so obviously, but I am EXTREMELY paranoid when I live this long

), you

can

trust me; I am town. You have my word, this is not my scumplay. I'm not fond of using meta to defend myself, but really, if you've seen my games since my return, the difference is pretty much as clear as night and day.

Scum play, lurking and lacking direction; starting off strong but getting weaker and weaker as suspicion begins to mount; showing extreme caution and relying heavily on scumbuddies.
Town play, active and always having focus (albeit a focus which tends to change--goldfish memory ahoy!

); starting off decently, but getting much weaker in the mid-game as I begin to let apathy kick in, and then suddenly near the endgame, kicking into high-gear, not caring how suspicious people are of me, showing an extreme amount of recklessness and not afraid to be independant of others.

mastin2 · Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:07 pm

Aco, if you're town, that's one of the worst possible votes for one of the worst possible reasons you could have made. You need to tell me

exactly

what you think of Yates.

(/inb4 mastin-pidgey scumteam accusation.

)

mastin2 · Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:58 pm

Aco wrote:If I'm town?

If?!?!?!?!

Yeah, "if".

Paranoia and all that.

Scum take who they want into lylo (well, mylo). And quite honestly, every single player in this game has a lot making them incredibly town, yet every single player in this game has a lot making them incredibly scum as well.

At this stage, really, anyone could be scum, and hence, I need to consider my reads on everyone--yourself included. Do I think you're town, definitely leaning that way. Am I willing to risk the game on it, not really.

AP wrote:Mastin..you town?

Sad as it is (this game is definitely in my bottom 15% of games in my 100+ game career), yes. Yes, I am.

But hey. If we don't repeat 1377 here, I'll have another 2-3 chances to be nightkilled!

pidgey wrote:Why are you 90% on yates and 80% on KK, mastin.

Like, besides gut and shit.

Eliminating gut, you get...
...

...Well, not a lot, really.

I guess from AP, there's his general posting style; it's as you said: if he's scum, I wouldn't really mind losing to him at this point.

And from Khan, much the same in reverse; if he's scum, I wouldn't want to lose to him.

Butyeah, it's mostly just general posting, town from AP, scum from Khan. AP's play today looks like he's trying to figure things out (much like you, pidgey--in fact, you're actually stronger in that regard at the moment than AP is). In contrast to that, Khan looks like he's just trying to desperately get a mislynch. He doesn't look like he's trying to figure things out, he doesn't show that critical element of paranoia; he's instead showing a level of focus uncharacteristic of a town player in lylo.

...Of course, this whole accusation is mainly off of what's been done today, and my memory of it, which delves back into, yup, you guessed it: gut.

I can describe my reasoning on the gut, I can describe what makes me feel the way I do, but it's still exactly that: me

feel

ing a certain way, which in other words is my gut. I really can't give you much better than that. Logic has never been a strong point of mine, least of all when I'm on dial-up vacation.

...Speaking of which...

Mod:

Starting tomorrow, I *might* have no MS access 'til the following Monday.
I realize that's way too long, so I'm quite frankly hoping that I can get access, since I wouldn't want to replace me at this point in the game.

(Nor am I particularly fond of the idea of being replaced at all.) But be aware that it is a possibility, one you need to be made aware of.
So, officially,

severe LA from Sunday 12/30/12 until Monday 1/7/13.

Since even if I do get access, it'll only be once or twice that week, and in a short period of time.

mastin2 · Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:01 pm

(Also, hey, I just one-upped myself! Actually, four-upped; I took it up to eleven! Literally!

)

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 6:11 am

Need to continue from 159. (Yes, I'm that behind.

) Rough week and all that.

For now, bottom of 158.

myk wrote:Your "read" evolved pretty quickly when I called you out on pushing a bullshit lynch on Jason through.

Welcome to mafia.
Reads can change from as little as a single post.

myk wrote:Ok, why do you worry about this?

Well, Yates was scum, and Aco voted the person who quite frankly was my strongest townread.

(Side-note, Kise dieing after MoI IS making me reconsider one of my core reads. Pidgey is not one of them. Need to see the posts after to tell why he died.)

Btw,

the post myk quoted wrote:Myk's the messenger, and his stances kinda felt town. :/ (
Among my top suspects by POE
, I'd guess.)

And if you're town, you still can, but I'm preeeeeeeeeetty sure you're scum, here, myk.

/head not in the game atm. Multitasking. Sorry, will get back to this game within a few hours (I think). Wish I could get more content in this post.

Would be voting Khan right now, without reading anything, for the record.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:27 am

myk wrote:Bussing before Yates finished his claim? I don't know if that's really mastin-like.

Much as I'd love the towncred...yes, heck yes it's Mastin-like.

I bus like a champ. It's instinct. I have townplay so ingrained into my instincts that even as scum, I act town. It's partially also a holdover from when I was a worse player: I expected to be the first scum down, so that my bussing would make my buddies look better. And nowadays, it's also so that I can get free towncred when (much to my shock and horror) a scumbuddy dies, via by lynch or (more commonly) nightkill.

Yes, it's a bad habit, one which I really should break, since I've never had a solo win, but it's well within my scum meta to bus in lylo.

Granted, in lylo, I mostly try to go for the win, since I've never had a solo scum win, meaning unless I feel as if the chances of us winning as a team are virtually zero on that day, I'll be gunning for victory, since you never know what might crop up on future days.

I guess that could give me some minor towncred, but of course, you could always go for the conspiracy theory that Yates and I planned for me to vote him and for him to botch up his claim, get lynched, and give me that towncred for being there before then. Soyeah, it's preeeeeeetty much null, no matter how much I wish it wasn't.

Also, if you couldn't tell, Kise's death has made me paranoid about Nero. He's been far less active in our QT. And in his post during the night, he asked me if I thought Yates was distancing from Kise, but made no mention of Aco (not sure what to make of that, honestly). And both Kise and MoI were the strongest advocates of Nero being scum.

If I had to make a guess, KK'd still be scum. I was also thinking there was one scum in jason/Aco, but I'm not sure who; lean towards jason. And again, prob-scum between myk and Nero. If forced to at gunpoint, I'd lynch myk over Nero, but right now, I honestly don't know.

Khan wrote:I'm going to read for a mastin2-Yates connection now/tonight because my town read on him is in need of re-visiting.

Conveniently after myk and pidgey both say they need to re-evaluate me and that I've blown my towncred, Khan does this. Pretty much by-the-book opportunism, here.

By the way, legit question--
Who am I scum with? I've seen plenty of "Mastin is scum"-reads as of late. But I am not an interactions-hiding master. I lack subtleness. I am as blatant a scum player as I can be. So if I'm scum, my interactions with my scumbuddies should be incredibly obvious, no?

Side-note, thinking of scumbuddies, I'm bringing myself back to AV. Remember how I made the "Aco-Zoro share the same alignment" post very early on in the game?
I really, really, reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally want to trust my old self on that.

Now I'm obviously not quite ready to make that call

yet

, but that (combined with a gut feeling of AV's vote pattern) makes me leaning on jason being scum heavier than before.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:39 am

In post 4049, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, what caused you to change your read on Acosmist? Why did you think he was scum for awhile in the first place?

Read on Mykonian?

Change back to town? Honestly, I can't remember. I think it was around the time I made that list of questions for everyone to answer/address. So about the same time my read on MoI began to change, I guess. It definitely wasn't until after I began to work with players rather than me having antagonized them. I really can't remember what it was that sparked it. Coulda been trusting MoI (who had weak meta), coulda been Aco's approach compared to others' approaches at the same time, maybe I iso'd him and saw something which looked town, I really don't know. It just did.

Change to scum? I saw highly reactionary play, and basically saw nothing but active lurking. His whole stance on Tammy seemed hypocritical given his own claim, and it seemed like he was legitimately afraid of Tammy vigging him. Add in MoI (scumread #1 eventually) defending him off of something incredibly weak, and a sketchy claim as well.

I mean, right now, he still feels town to me. I really don't have a bundle-load of reasons as to why. Maybe I will, after having thought things through and going to check stuff, but right now, he's at the edge: close to being removed from the suspect pool, and

almost

out of it, but not yet strong enough for that final push. Not when I haven't weighed both sides properly.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:40 am

Oops. Got so passionate on Aco that I forgot the part about myk.

My read on myk at the moment is almost dead-null. Slightly on the scum side, but I really don't have any confidence in him.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:50 am

In post 4050, AngryPidgeon wrote:Its Mastin isn't it.

You wish.

And quite frankly, I wish as well.

If this were a scumgame, it'd be in my top 15% of my games. Not bottom 15.
After all, I lived to mylo! With no scum deaths up 'til Yates! Every single day, I could win. If I got lynched, my team could win. If a scumbuddy got lynched, I could still win tomorrow. If I got lynched then, my final scumbuddy could still win, and if they got lynched, then I'd have a shot at winning. All the power roles are dead or under heavy suspicion. Every single player has a lot town and a lot scum, so I can target just about anyone I want for a mislynch and be guaranteed to get at least SOME support for it. And I can defend whoever the heck I want to, for much the same reason!

As scum, that's the ideal game. I

dream

of being that good as scum. It's a lifelong ambition of my career, for that ideal scum game. Not a "perfect scum game", mind you, where the scum win with no casualties. An ideal scum game, where the circumstances are ripe for victory. Just having it set up is an achievement of skill, and winning it would be even better.

Nope. I'm not that good. I wish I were, but I'm not. I just don't have that kind of skill in me. This is not a scum game. There's nothing to be proud of in this game. Zero. Zilch. I've done another permanent shame to my record, for having sucked so long, and worse, having lived 'til mylo. In a mini game, that's bad, but still tolerable. In a Large Game, that's the scum telling you that you're their honorary scumbuddy.

I hate living to lylo, and it's always a sign that I've done abysmally bad during the game. I've been in this situation far too many times. People make that comment. "Mastin, if you're scum, you've played a damn-good game." And I agree. If I were scum, they'd be completely and totally correct. I'd have played an excellent game, have done well, and have been a good player.

But the thing is, I've been town every single time someone has made that comment.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:56 am

In post 4054, AngryPidgeon wrote:mykonian/mastin?

Sending a message to your scumbuddy once, good WIFOM.

Sending a message to your scumbuddy twice, pretty dang stupid and absolutely pointless.

Myk could be scum, but he's not scum with me, just as he's not scum with you, AP.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:05 am

In post 4076, AngryPidgeon wrote:LOL, ok. Fuck it Im arguing with scum.

I'm inclined to agree with you on Khan.

His posts, again, don't have that air of legitimacy in them. They just feel as if he's pushing to get a lynch, ANY lynch, through, which isn't on his scumbuddies.

He gives "logic", but his logic comes across as being hollow and superficial, relying on technicalities and details in the game. Ideal scum environment, and all that--with such a long game, he can take content from anywhere and use it, and that's basically what he's done. He himself notes that we should look at the overall picture, yet his posting doesn't reflect him having actually done so.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:10 am

In post 4078, Acosmist wrote:Yates - 6 (Kise, mastin2, jasonT1981, Acosmist, mykonian, pidgey)

Not voting - Yates, Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, AngryPidgeon

This reminds me. Khan was willing to vote Yates, but specifically stayed off. Nero was absent, but I definitely need to review his stances at the time. I definitely think there's scum off of Yates, but it's pretty much definitely not going to be the whole scumteam off, especially considering that he botched his claim. Right now, I'm basically deciding between one (most likely, Khan) or two (most likely, Khan and Nero).

I also need to take another look at who was voting/willing to vote Yates at different stages in the game--before his claim, after his initial claim, and after his full (botched) claim. Given that this was mylo and the scum had a real shot at winning, my instincts say none on him before his claim. Potentially after his initial claim, and pretty much certainly after his botched claim.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:19 am

In post 4084, Nero Cain wrote:I actually thought that Yates was distancing himself from Kise and I said as much in the qt. If Mastin was scum why would h shoot Kise whom I was planning on pushing?

Actually, much as I'd love to be cleared by this, you saw my post in the QT--I had no context. I knew it was night, and I guessed that Yates was lynched and flipped scum, but I had absolutely zero idea of the circumstances surrounding his lynch.

So, I'd have a similar stance in any scum QT. I'd let my scumbuddies handle the nightkill. Or at least fill me in on the posts since my last, so that I could see the circumstances of the lynch and know. But most likely, while I would contribute my voice to the scum QT (just as I contributed to the neighborhood QT), I would not be in command of it. (Granted, that'd only be for that night--aside from Khan, AP, and Nero, if anyone else was my scumbuddy, I'd hold zero respect for their capabilities as scum and would take control of the scumteam. If my scumbuddies are players I know and respect, I typically let them take the helm. If my scumbuddies are all newer than I am [and most players these days are; 2008 was a long time ago], then I'm the guy dictating our actions. I bluntly force my ideas through, shouting "screw you" to them if they resist.

)

Speaking of the QT, I should work on a paraphrase of it in its entirety. That way, others could see what I've seen on Nero, and people can help me get a stronger read one way or the other on him.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:20 am

Oh, wait--myk would *probably* also have my respect as a scumbuddy. Butyeah, you get my point. I follow scumbuddies when I think they're better than me, I take control when I strongly suspect they're not.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:26 am

By the way,

In post 4092, Acosmist wrote:Hey I lynched Yates, scrub. You can stop talking forever!

Posts like this reinforce the townread on Aco.

He's not displaying this as a means of earning towncred. (Even though it earns towncred from me.

)

He's arrogantly posting this to say, "I'm better than you", and to "GTFAway", since he's doing things his way and they work.

You can see this sort of thing from MoI's high-and-mighty attitude towards Tammy, insisting he was responsible for a scum lynch.

And Jason continuing to ask how Aco's conftown makes jason look a whooooole lot worse.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:30 am

In post 4098, AngryPidgeon wrote:Kise and MoI both suspected Mastin.

Actually, come to think of it...I don't seem to remember Kise actually being suspicious of me.

I actually seem to recall the opposite, that he was treating me as town. I'll have to double-check to make sure, of course.

Though yeah, MoI was suspicious of me, for my refusal to get onto zab. (Who he thought was scum. You can substitute now, however, "Mastin refused to get on the zab lynch 'cause he didn't want to bus", which was MoI's original reason, for, "Mastin refused to get on the zab lynch 'cause he didn't want to blow himself up".

)

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:32 am

In post 4100, AngryPidgeon wrote:If acosmist is scum hes being reallllly ballsy with his "I voted Yates, I must be town" bullshit.

Dammit, AP, that was MY point. >_<

Now I look like I was sheeping you when I made that post.

STOP POSTING THINGS I WOULD POST BEFORE I POST!

(AP's still town. For stuff like that.)

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 9:38 am

Another thing making me think the scumteam is Khan/Jason/myk, is that Khan's pushing Nero as scum heavily, and pushing Aco as scum lightly (while also pushing jason as town quite heavily), with myk entirely out of the radar. But despite focusing on Nero and Aco quite a bit, his main push is elsewhere, on AP.

(Should also be noted, of course, that he's basically ignored pidgey. Worth looking in to, though pidgey's still my strongest townread.)

Khan wrote:If you had Nero Cain's role (as described), what's your N1 plan?

Use it like a cop: neighborize someone unlikely to be killed, unlikely to be lynched, and yet, someone who I want more information on, and probably on the townier side of my personal spectrum.

...Which is pretty much exactly what he did.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:11 am

Spoiler: eh

AP wrote:BTW, this question alone is enough reason to lynch mastin.

Yes, I fully realize the question is scummy, but I decided that the reward was worth it if people actually answered seriously, since it could help me get a much stronger read on players. So I'll ask again--who am I scum with, of the players alive?

The question isn't to dissuade people from trying to lynch me. That'll be evident enough in my play, that I'm not scum. The question is to get people to answer me and lock in interactions.
Here, I'll make it easier to fake for those who don't have a clue: If I were scum, then I'd be bussing Khan right now, for his play being much the same as Yates, who I was also bussing. I would not, however, be bussing my final partner, which'd probably make it Aco, AP, or pidgey (outside chance of Nero).

So I just made it easier on you. Two living names.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:14 am

In post 4123, mykonian wrote:Voting people on a whim just because they vote you is just scummy.

Except I didn't. Your vote on me was pretty meaningless. It was pretty much everything you were saying as a whole. You coulda voted any player with much the same reasoning and my attack would be much the same.

I don't do OMGUS, least of all as scum. Never have, never will.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:16 am

In post 4126, AngryPidgeon wrote:And said he was going to iso you for connections but never did apparently.

Hey, AP, you think I'm scum. (I'm not, but let's just run with it, anyway.

)

VOTE: Kublai Khan Man.

You think Khan's scum, and I've even said that if I was scum, I'd be bussing him.

So, won't you help me bus my scumbuddy?

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:28 am

In post 3450, mastin2 wrote:AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
zabriel - 4 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, Cheery Dog, Kise)
Yates - 4 (mastin2, AngryPidgeon, zabriel, mykonian)
mykonian - 1 (pidgey)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Acosmist)

In post 3472, pappums rat wrote:
zabriel - 7 (MagnaofIllusion, jasonT1981, Cheery Dog, Kise, Acosmist, pidgey, AngryPidgeon)
Yates - 3 (mastin2, zabriel, mykonian)
AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)

Went back to here, looking for something in the difference between these, but I can't remember what it was.

I'm hoping by having posted this that I'll remember what it was I was thinking about, but at the moment, drawing a blank. I thought it was pretty dang important for some reason, but I really don't know what it was. Mighta been looking at myk's vote, though this is just a guess. (Blehg.)

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:34 am

Oh, guess Kise's last mention of me was kinda suspicious of me, but it was me tied to jason. But that was far from his last posts; he said he wasn't confident in it, via a later post saying he was confident in a Yates-pidgey pairing. Which means his last team before he died did not have me in it, but was Yates and (I think) pidgey, with (probably) jason as the third; tough to tell.

Soyeah, you can say I'm scum, but you can't really say I'm scum who contributed in any way to a Kise kill, both for my lack of site access and for the lack of Mastin scumread from him.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 10:39 am

Gotta go at the moment. But side-note, finally have another scum meta. Died that night, but you can see my thought process as scum there.

Add in my play as Calcifer and you can get a very good idea of what I do and don't do as scum.

And, yeah, I know, lolmeta; knowing my own meta means I can manipulate it, so it's BS, but really, there are some fundamental aspects of my play which don't change, including in my scumplay. This aint it. I'm not this good a scum player. If you think I'm scum, sure, yeah, it's a compliment that you think I'm that competent, but I really am not.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:48 pm

Look, pidgey, if I was scum, I could BS any number of reasons for why you're town, explain it in as much detail as I'd like. I'm good that way; that's how I play.

...But as town, sometimes what I see...is really all that I see.

I see town in ya. Plain and simple. I see it. That's that. If I was scum, that'd be faked, and I'd have reasons to back up the fake reads. But I'm not. It just is. The read's there, I have it, I believe it.

I mean, having veeeeeeeeery slight doubts, but I still can't shake the townread.

The unnatural thingy isn't having a townread. The unnatural thingy would be me explaining it. I can't. I really can't. I wish I could, it'd be easier if I could, but anything I could tell you right now would be BS.

mastin2 · Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:12 pm

Pidgey, am I bussing jason?

'Cause I'd totally throw support behind a jason lynch as well. He's my second-strongest scumread behind Khan.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:50 am

Khan wrote:First, I don't quite understand where your reads are stemming from.

Primarily, gut.

What you see is what I've got.

As scum, I'm perfectly able to fake reasoning for scumreads when needed. As recently as my scum game inside the Calcifer hydra, you can see that. But if you look further back, you can see it in all of my recent scum games, such as Oversoul's Mini Normal, the last scum victory I had. The joke for the longest time was that logic from me is a scumtell, and there's a pretty dang solid basis for the 'joke'. As town, I can provide some incredible insight into things, but my reads are

incredibly

driven by gut. Yes, I know, that's not the best way to approach the game, but that's just. how. my. mind. works. I read the game, realize I felt something, and investigate the feeling.

As scum, I read the game, feel like doing something, and do it. And then I have to figure out an explanation for my actions, which makes sense from a town perspective. I have to show logic, show reasoning, in order to dodge suspicion. I have to play in a field where I am not comfortable, by necessity, or get lynched.

Much of the same drive exists as town, sure, yeah, in that I never ever want to be lynched (least of all in mylo), but...well...it's a lot harder, for the simple fact that...well...deep down, I just don't feel as much of a drive to do so. Believe me. Right now, I'd LOVE to be able to give clear-cut reasoning. I'd love to be able to say "This is the overall picture, as nicely demonstrated here, here, here, and here, but it's really all across the board. There are minor things which give me pause here and here, but I still believe that the overall picture suggests *insert read here*, thanks to *alternative explanation for the things giving doubt* and *reinforcement of the earlier points*." A strong scientific method post, showing good science in process. Presenting the conclusion (with some degree of uncertainty), presenting the evidence supporting the conclusion, showing the alternative theory, and presenting why I believe the alternative theory to not be accurate.

I know how to do it in theory...but when it comes to practice...I really just can't. Not as town, anyway. I just...well...just feel things. I give my best guess at explaining those feelings, but that's about as much reasoning as I get in a game. I can explain what the general feeling is, and often what it's about (e.g., "this post felt town", "this player is town", "overall picture suggests town"...), but while I can give reasoning (often narrowing it down, e.g. "for these lines", "for these posts", "for this trend"), it's more often than not me just guessing at why I feel that way.

I try to make the reads match the evidence, but my way of doing so just...doesn't make rational sense. I don't know how my thought process got to be the way it is, how it made that unusual train, but it exists.

And as scum, I know that the above gets me nowhere. "It...just is?" is a

horrible

way to dodge suspicion.

So I fake it. I fake reasoning. I fake reads. I force out some artificial reasons, taking from seemingly random points in the game. I go through the process. "Here, here, and here." I leave out a few steps, and the result is only pseudoscience, but it's convincing pseudoscience. If it works, I continue on as before, until I'm called out again.
If it doesn't, and people don't buy it, I typically realize that I am fighting a losing battle...and begin to lurk, so the suspicion will go away. (And that works really, really well. How much do you wanna bet that if I stopped posting every day, that it'd make me look less suspicious? When I was on V/LA, people were barely touching on me, and it was only upon my return to the game that pressure began to be applied to me.)

But as town, that's not an option. I can't lurk. I have to be proactive with my play, rather than reactive.
Oh, and that's another key difference in my scum play compared to my town play--as scum, I play INCREDIBLY reactive. Not initially, mind you; initially, I have to establish early towncred so that I can cruise by on reactionary play. So I spout out reads and don't give the reason why. But then, I stop. I keep those reads. I don't change them unless strong evidence presents itself which forces me to change them. I play an overall conservative and inactive game. More than that, my game almost never changes--I'm wrong? Push on, slightly altering my reads.

Whereas when I'm town, I'm incredibly proactive. The start is the same--I give reads, and I typically don't give reasoning. But those reads evolve. They change, off of new evidence coming to light. My viewpoint changes. I find myself in incredibly awkward positions where I have to force myself to admit that I was wrong before, and force myself to re-focus with the new evidence in light, but unlike my scum play (where I'll occasionally do so, only to stop there and not continue), as town I then go on to actually do so, refocusing my effort and redoubling my attacks. I play an overall aggressive game, attacking again and again. And my game almost always changes--I'm wrong? Examine why. Back down. Be paranoid. And only when I have found the problem do I push on. Could it be only slightly different reads, yes. But more often than not, my changing towards the game radically shifts. My scumteam can be the complete opposite of what it was before. (I don't think I've ever done that as scum, to be honest. No, seriously; you can check my games. See how little my reads change with time, and how I never have that 180. If I have, then I certainly don't remember it and it's the exception proving the rule.) Because I consistently second-guess myself and re-examine the facts.

And you can argue all you'd like that I know my meta, so can manipulate it. But these things are such fundamental aspects of my play that despite how much I'd LOVE to change them,

I really can't

. The overall picture for my play as town is always the same, the overall picture for my play as scum is always the same, despite how vastly different the specifics are. I've stagnated. I've hit that dead-end. I can't improve more than I have. You saw my thread in GD about that, right? Wall Comes Crashing Down. You know what that means. It means that I just. can't. get. better.

And if I were scum this game, that would all be a lie. I would have gotten better. I would have improved. I would have redefined my scum play. I would have achieved it. But that's the thing. I haven't. I'm not scum. It would be so much easier if I was. It would be such an accomplishment if I were. but. I'm. not. I'm just a mediocre town player who happens to be verbose. And who happens to have played a game

well

below mediocre.

Khan wrote:The "air of legitimacy" comment is crap. At best, it's an indication that whoever is writing it has confirmation bias. At worst it's an attempt at discrediting. Either way, it's manipulative. He's not proving anything I said was wrong. Just implying it.

Wrong on preeetty much all accounts. It's instinct, gut. It's about as explicit as I can get in saying that I just don't feel like you have points which hold water. You hide under the guise of reason, but when examined, those reasons just don't seem to connect.

Why are you making it sound like I'm scrambling to join any available wagon?

Not any. Just the ones which aren't your scumbuddies.

And AP.

You're suggesting that I stayed off the Yates lynch wagon because... there was another scum on it and I didn't want to risk being together with another (or two other?) scum?

No. I'm explicitly saying you avoided the Yates wagon before then, since you didn't want to lynch him.

He's also made numerous "I wish I was scum" and "scum must be giddy to win" comments that sound like he's legitimately excited about finally getting a surviving win as scum.

Would probably be true if I was actually scum, but if you read my posts as

enjoying

the current situation, you have zero grasp of tone. I'm agitated. I'm frustrated. I'm annoyed, and angry at myself. Not at anyone else, mind you. But at myself.

This. is not. a good. game.

It'd be the SECOND game IN A ROW where I was mislynched in mylo for a scum win, stinging ALL THE MORE because it's identical to 1377, with three scum alive, and me on their trail, about to lock on and devote myself to it, but not quite there, with that oh so distracting and hindering doubt preventing me from it.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 5:58 am

btw (busy now), that's another difference between my scum and town play.

As scum, I'm never, ever, EVER frustrated. I'm giddy all the way. I'm happy. I'm -proud- of what I have done. Even if it's a horrible game, I treat every good action I do as a trophy. I'm incredibly nervous, yes, constantly afraid, definitely. But never frustrated. Always glad. The pressure as scum is higher, sure, but I take that pressure and get a good laugh from the experience, whatever it may be. The game will end as it will end, and win or lose, it was a good experience.

As town, I'm always frustrated. If I'm alive consistently not as a PR, then what went wrong?
Answer: everything. There's nothing to be happy as. The pressure is lower, but inversely, the failure feels much, much worse.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:35 am

In post 4156, Kublai Khan wrote:Reaction to pressure.

See this?

Yeah, this?

This...this is the exact type of thing which I, as scum, would use to justify my townread.

If it wasn't clear to you, I'm preeeeetty much calling this BS. There are PLENTY of reasons to have AP as town. "Reaction to pressure" isn't even on the list it's so bad a reason.

Spoiler: Oh, and a small correction is in order--

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:17 am

He's probably been scum since then, but he does have at least one, in Thirsty Souls Mafia.

Oh, and now that the game's over, I can say this: part of the reason that my read on AP changed this game was thanks to me having a cop inno on him in another, where he was displaying much the same aspects of his play to here. Obviously, I couldn't use that reasoning, and it wasn't the best (since each game is different), but it was enough to sway me from my scumread on AP.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:21 am

And another piece of evidence for me being town: this QT, from the game in question I mention above. Cyber says, bluntly, in the mafia QT,

First time drawing a scum role. Any tips? Strategy?

I replaced Cyber in this game, so unless he had the foresight to think of a game he replaced out of when making that message, it

does

give strong evidence suggesting he wasn't lying, and therefore that his slot this game (mine) is town.

Yes, that's something which can be fabricated, and yes, it's something which quite frankly you shouldn't post if you've been in any ongoing games where you once were (you should instead say, "I don't have much/any experience being scum", or something along those lines, which while implying it does not explicitly say it), but he posted it all the same, soyeah. I'm town.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:23 am

Which means, AP, get yer dang vote off of me.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:07 am

myk wrote:Why weren't we supposed to question you the moment you wanted to push a jason lynch through just after he claimed?

'Cause his claim, as originally stated, made him a lynch-immune VT, and we're on evens. You test the claim, go into night, scum kill someone to bring it to odds, and we're back the next day, with one less suspect. (Two, if the scum killed someone other than jason.)

Hence the vote. The question wasn't why to lynch jason; it was why not to.

....And theeeeeeen he had to go claim that his role is actually lynch-immune treestump, which is not only significantly weaker, but also makes it so that we can't lynch him without losing the game if there are three scum (now) / four scum (yesterday) and his claim is legit, as he loses his vote and the town would no longer be able to obtain a majority.

In other words, he went from someone who we could lynch with absolutely no risk and a bundle-load of reward...to someone who we can only lynch if we're sure he's scum. (Which I do, for the record.

)

This is the post where you switched your read on me. Tell me why mastin.

I already did: the circumstances surrounding your vote on me. My read on you was bad (see also: "Among my top suspects by POE"), and your vote on me was what sealed the deal.

Side-note, both myk and Khan have basically been going, "SCREW YOU, MASTIN!" for a while. It's more and more reading like "right for all the wrong reasons" from 'em. (Or, more specifically, "right despite giving no reasons".

)

For the record, I am treating today as mylo with three scum left. Two scum alive would make my job

much

easier, but I have to assume there are three until the game's proven otherwise.

And I think I've changed my lynch preferences slightly, to be Khan-myk-jason, rather than Khan-jason-myk.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:09 am

...That said, am willing to hear alternatives, so long as the alternatives are not AP.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:11 am

Also, should be noted--myk missed his message.

What if, in order to perform the mafia kill, he can't both kill and send a message?

Would explain the lack of a message.
Also, his fear of targeting Aco.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:16 am

Oh and by the way...

In post 4189, Nero Cain wrote:So you think scum is one pr, 2 vts. Intesresting!!!

I'm not opposed to this line of thought, though really, I'm town and I strongly, STRONGLY, believe AP to be town as well.

If there's a second scum in the VTs aside from Khan, then POE says pidgey.

My townread has waned enough that someone making a solid case on pidgey could sway me, but he's not a lynch I'd so much as fathom for today.

At this stage in the game, I'd be willing to say that Khan and myk are VERY good bets for scum, but whether the third is jason or pidgey is what's up in the air.

It's pretty much definitely not Nero, it's certainly not Aco, soyeah.
Khan-myk-jason/pidgey is what we're looking at.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:19 am

In post 4192, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin, why are you reading town on Nero?

Partly for the QT, partly for my scumread on myk.

And partly 'cause of necessity.

I'm getting NK'd tonight (after presumably a Khan lynch), so he's my only line to communicating my thoughts to players for tomorrow. If he's scum, he can claim anything he wants, and/or twist my words as he pleases. Meaning that in order for my analysis during the night to be effective (and I will be doing so), he pretty much

has

to be town.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:25 am

On the one hand...

In post 3857, mykonian wrote:
In post 3851, mastin2 wrote:VOTE: Jason.

Yeah, we're testing that claim today. Zero ifs, ands, or buts.
And the easiest mafia win was achieved?

Lets not.

In post 3858, Kublai Khan wrote:
Mod: Is it too early to request a prod on Yates

I'm not really seeing the benefit of lynching jasonT1981.

There's this, but on the other hand...

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:25 am

On the other hand...

In post 3836, Kise wrote:Holy shit.

vote Yates

This means fuck you too pidgey

In post 3837, Kise wrote:Yes. Yates didn't hammer zab D4. D5 he was the first on it. Pidgey didn't hammer zab yesterday.

Omg that iso. I'm confident for the first time in months.

(Disclaimer: he said "or maybe not pidgey" in his next post.)

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:32 am

Blehg. I could read from ~153 onward a dozen times and I don't think it'd make any difference; I'm not going to get much of a stronger read on pidgey/jason. I do kinda lean jason, but ahg, not a clue.

As for myk, again, he looks bad; he was fine with my jason vote, but freaked out when I voted Yates.

Also, jason was a fairly decent scumread of MoI, who insisted jason was playing to their scum meta.
Basically, I don't think I'll ever be getting a read based off of interactions. Not with Yates, not from Yates. Not with Khan, not from Khan.
I think it's going to be based off of other factors, like who died and where they had their suspicion, along with (more strongly) the individual play of them--and between 'em, there's pretty much no contest; pidgey's far stronger. Butyeah, still need to do lots more research before committing to this.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:41 am

Blehg. Nevermind. Back to 50-50 between jason and pidgey. Still slight jason lean.
Pidgey's stance on 157 was bad, and jason's stance was good, but jason unvoted Yates, which is bad.

Also, there's nothing bad from AP not voting Yates; he was actually legitimately discussing things with people (like Khan) and doing scumhunting--much the same as I did via not voting zabriel. He also brought up the possibility of the scum putting a bomb on themselves, and that was a legitimate concern as town to have--so the idea was to have someone scummy hammer, and he was discussing that.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:44 am

In post 4207, AngryPidgeon wrote:Mastin I KNOW you think Nero is town because KK is voting him even if you wont admit that to yourself.

Okay, that does contribute, actually, though it's not something I had in mind.

Think about it, though, AP--they're down a member, Yates, from yesterday. They're in perpetual mylo, so it only takes one to win, but every single scum lynch decreases their chance of winning and increases ours. Is he actually going to risk a double-bus when he has a shot at victory?

I guess it IS possible, especially since he was going so hard against you yesterday but mysteriously you're town today--that coulda been him aiming for the win yesterday and realizing he's going down in flames today. But I'm not sure on that at all.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:47 am

Actually, myk-pidgey is doubtful, given their consistent distancing, especially at this stage in the game, probably wouldn't come from scum.

Soyeah, either/or.

If myk is scum, it's Khan-myk-jason.
If pidgey's scum, it's Khan-pidgey with either Nero or jason for the third.

>_<

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:55 am

In post 395, pappums rat wrote:
AngryPidgeon replaces I Am Innocent effective immediately.

AP, Social Justice Mafia QT wrote:Round 2 I suppose. Hola qwints.

If I'm not mistaken...AP's post in there was after he had replaced in here.

It's certainly not as strong as Cyber's meta townslip, but this reinforces the AP-townread I have.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:56 am

In post 4212, AngryPidgeon wrote:Is Nero/Mykonian a team? That would be hilarious. And explain the desperation and derp of Nero's defense of me saying they should test Acosmist.

No.

At most, one scum.

Their powers are proven, AP. And yet we have scum powers not known. There's at least one bomb scum role, and potentially another. Soyeah, on that alone, they're not a team.

Also, if they were a team, MoI woulda died a lot sooner than he did.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:00 pm

In post 4217, Nero Cain wrote:I don't get it Mastin?

The point is that it's a similar-natured meta townslip to the one Cyber had which has confirmed me.

AP, as scum, after he was already in this game, said "round two".

It's not nearly as strong (AP could fake it, AP could be referring to it being a mini and the amount of similar players), but it does at least

suggest

AP's town here as well.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:03 pm

Also, for what it's worth, iso'ing AP in that game, his posts feel slightly different than his posts here.
Yeah, no two games the same, along with this being HUGELY a skim-read, but it's definitely contributing to the townread.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:10 pm

For what it's worth--a quick look at the rear end of MoI's iso shows that aside from zab, he was heavily pressuring myk.
He did say he'd push AP if zab flipped town, though.
And he also said Khan should know better.

...But before that, he said both Nero/myk scum. I just don't see it, though.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:12 pm

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
^Social justice, AP iso. His quicktopic was here.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:18 pm

Doing a Yates iso...it (so far--been skimming somewhat, but am on 56) lessens the chance of AP being scum, increases the chance of myk being scum, and maaaaaaybe increases the chances of Khan being scum.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:21 pm

More and more I'm reading, the more and more I'm convincing myself that a myk-lynch today actually has

higher

chances of hitting scum than Khan. >_<

Unvote,
Vote: mykonian.

Mind you, lack of bold = still researchin' and not devoted to it.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:26 pm

There is a slight thing making me unsure--
myk's message to me N3 had it so that he said that he didn't trust BC's slot...the night that slot was killed.
N2 had him mention Yates, but while he elaborated on his reads of most players, he left Yates and one or two others out of the elaboration. He had Yates, snifit, Nero, zabriel, acosmist, Jason, kise; he elaborated on Nero, snifit, aco, and Kise.

Also, his second message to me mentioned pidgey, AP, and MoI using his claim as leverage to lynch 'em; slightly decreases the chance of myk-pidgey.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:38 pm

In post 3230, Yates wrote:Between the two of you, I'm voting for you Pidgey. Can you stop this please? It's making this game a pita to read right now and I don't really need additional distractions right now.

Pidgey's prob-town from this alone.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:44 pm

In post 3888, pidgey wrote:I hate pappums for not having quick links (love you pappums)

DAY 1 MISSLYNCH

Melmond - 11 (Kublai Khan (3), Nero Cain,
Yates
(7), AngryPigeon, mykonian (11))
AngryPidgeon - 2 (Kise, Zoroaster)
Cybertronix - 2 (ThAdmiral, Melmond)
rapidcanyon - 1 (PeregrineV)
zabriel - 1 (Cybertronix)
Benmage - 1 (Acosmist)
Kise - 1 (jasonT1981)
Not voting - Amrun

DAY 2 SK LYNCH

Tammy - 10 (pidgey (3), Acosmist (6), AngryPidgeon, mykonian (8))
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (mastin2, Kublai Khan)
WrathChild - 2 (Tammy, PeregrineV)
pidgey - 2 (zabriel, jasonT1981)
Acosmist - 1 (Yates)
Not voting - Nero Cain

DAY 3 MISSLYNCH

Elscouta - 9 (Acosmist (2), AngryPidgeon, Kublai Khan (7),
Yates
, jasonT1981)
MagnaofIllusion - 2 (mastin2, Nero Cain)
AngryPidgeon - 1 (Elscouta)
Thor665 - 1 (PeregrineV)
mykonian - 1 (pidgey)
pidgey - 1 (mykonian)
Not voting - zabriel

Failed misslynch Day 4

zabriel - 7 (jasonT1981 (2), Acosmist (5), pidgey, AngryPidgeon)
Yates - 3 (mastin2, zabriel, mykonian)
AngryPidgeon - 3 (Kublai Khan, Nero Cain, PeregrineV)
jasonT1981 - 1 (Yates)
Not voting -

DAY 5 MISSLYNCH

zabriel - 7 (
Yates
, mykonian (3), Kublai Khan, Acosmist (5))
jasonT1981 - 1 (AngryPidgeon)
Yates - 1 (mastin2)
MagnaofIllusion - 1 (Nero Cain)
Kise - 1 (zabriel)
Not voting - pidgey, jasonT1981

For information purposes when i have time after fkn work

For information purposes when I have time.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:49 pm

In post 3319, Yates wrote:Alright - I can be convinced to vote for Zab or Nero. I had Nero as Town due to his role claim but there are valid points being raised about his "x-shot" ability suddenly being spent when we have an opportunity to test it. So I'm actually leaning Nero over an admitted POE + OMGUS vote on Zab.

And this is at d4. He drops myk, he drops Khan, in favor of Nero and zab.

Keep in mind, this was the day of the failed mislynch when he didn't want to blow himself up.

Soyeah, I'd say this suggests Nero town.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:55 pm

In post 3897, Yates wrote:I can tell you at this time that Nero does NOT dabble in the Dark Arts.

Though his claim is BS, this from Yates also points to Nero being town.
Why?

He went out of his way to say this, BEFORE going on to antagonize Aco and Kise.
He was making a play for the win, and for that, he needed allies.

And an ally he could get was Nero.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:00 pm

SO HERE'S WHERE I STAND.

In post 4238, AngryPidgeon wrote:Pretty much its Nero/Jason/KK/Mykonian.

I'm pretty much in agreement with this.

I'd be the first to admit there's an outside chance that one of my townreads is wrong, from my townread on pidgey to my townread on AP, to my townread on Aco.

...But realistically, I'm never going to be able to fully eliminate anybody, just as I can never fully condemn anyone.

Game this large, lasting so long...there's enough to condemn or clear any player, from looking at any different point in the game.

In the end, I have to go with the overall picture. And the overall picture to me strongly points to AP and Aco being town, with pidgey also being a fairly decent townread (that said--he's the weakest of the clears).

Which narrows it down, to those four. Of them, if I had to guess right now, I'd say Khan/myk/jason, but I'm not sold yet. It could be Khan/Nero/jason, even though I don't think it is.

"Shouldn't your vote be on Khan, then?"
Eh, maybe I'ls

mastin2 · Tue Jan 08, 2013 1:00 pm

*witch tomorrow.

Err, computer losing power. Gotta go.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:51 am

In post 4949, Nero Cain wrote:lol AP tried to kill me night 1

Not AP specifically, but AP had good reason to think I was the doctor protecting you, since I had that very same guess--that the doctor protected you N1.

Of all the people who could have died N1, you at that point looked the most reasonable when I did my iso, so I concluded pretty much instantly that you were the NK.

And, fun fact, I almost didn't do the 1V1 claim against MoI d2. Had I not, things coulda gone reeeeeeeeally differently with regards to N3.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:56 am

In post 4952, pidgey wrote:The 3 repeated messaged to AP + other things made me think it was kinda impossible for myk/AP scum team.

To be fair, it did for me as well.

Once, good WIFOM.

Twice, and even three times?

No way.

...Except, yes way.

I was pretty dead-certain myk was scum, even before my modkill. I was pretty certain, by extent, that Nero was town, even before I got to the dead QT to know as much. I was pretty certain that Aco was town. And because of myk's constant messaging to AP, I was convinced AP couldn't be scumbuddies with him, which'd narrow it down to {jason, you} as the partner, and I was pretty heavily leaning against it being jason. (Especially after I ended up in the dead QT.)

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:58 am

*{Jason, pidgey, KK} as the partner. Forgot, Khan was alive.

I'm not saying I was coming around entirely on Khan; I still had him as a good scum candidate. But my vote switch shows that I was (justifiably so!) paranoid that Khan was not a good lynch, whereas mykonian was.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:13 am

In post 5000, Kise wrote:So Mastin, about them derailings

Entirely in the mid-game.

I had early and late scumreads on mykonian and Yates.

I didn't see IaI nor AP by extent as being scum for most of the game, and that's where you can say I went wrong...but by the end, the only reason I thought that an AP-myk scumteam was impossible was because of myk messaging him. I mean, if myk were fake-messaging AP, I could totally buy it, but AP giving paraphrases of the messages showed that the messages myk were sending were quite real--in other words, myk was using his role, legitimately, on AP. And I just couldn't see him consistently doing that with both as scum.

Would I have called a myk-AP scumteam without that...I honestly can't say. It is fully possible I would have thanks to me trusting Nero and him presenting some pretty dang decent evidence. By the end, he wasn't acting particularly town, and in fact was acting pretty blatantly anti-town. Thanks to the messenger-ploy, I thought it was derp-anti-town (AP is not exactly known for being a brilliant scumhunter as town

And jason shows why this conclusion was not unreasonable to have made), rather than scum-ant-town, so without that, it could have gone one way or the other.

I did derail the zab wagon, but as it turned out, that wasn't a bad thing. I did attempt to derail the Tammy wagon, which would have been a good thing. I tried to derail the El wagon, which was a good thing.

Now, who I was trying to actually wagon, that you can argue was poor.

MoI, Aco, pidgey, Cheery Dog (briefly), PV (briefly), and Khan all were targeted, but by the end, I definitely was getting my act closer to being together. I (correctly) realized my error on MoI, Aco was soon to follow, and the only person I really was misreading at that point was pidgey...who I had most of the mid-game as being town.

(Pidgey being town in the mid-game is probably the best read I had during that period.

)

Butyeah, you can't exactly argue that my derails were bad, since I derailed lynches which weren't on groupscum. Heck, one of the wagons I tried to get going was on Yates, but deadline (combined with AP's distancing-then-getting-off) derailed that.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 8:23 am

In post 5010, AngryPidgeon wrote:Elscouta's refusal to claim was so town lol.

And I said as much.

And, yeah. PR's official mod ruling on my status this game is this:

pappums rat wrote:The way I see it right now, since Cyber was the main reason for the modkill I would essentially view you as a non-entity for this game (despite your hard efforts for the town) and you will neither win nor lose this game.

But despite that, I still personally consider myself to be a part of the game. This game is a fine demonstration of why my mid-game is abysmal. I start off decent (not great, but not bad), but get weaker and weaker. Near the endgame, I rebound, but by that time, it's too late.

I would have probably still lost this game, but it would have been by a much narrower margin.

So ultimately, I take back what I said about this game being in my bottom 15%, believe it or not. It's far, far, FAR from my most stellar performance of all time. And it's certainly in the bottom 50% of my games. But it's not bad. Just average. Lower side of average, but not as bad as I originally thought.

Still sucks, yeah, fully admit that. Would be the first to say I did not play a great game. To say I played a decent game (yet alone a good or great game) would be overly generous.

But my personal opinion is that my play wasn't particularly bad overall.

And hey, this game helps reinforce many of the principles I've been saying for a while. For instance, the moment I stopped antagonizing MoI, my play took an immediate turn for the better. The moment I stopped, considered my reads, and thought about the evidence rather than my feelings, I began to refocus and coordinate things. It ultimately was too little, too late, though. :/

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:36 am

In post 5020, Kise wrote:I made the best case when I showed you urging Tammy to shoot the cop. But mastin was WAITWAITWAIT

To be fair, I was under the impression that the messenger was town at the time.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:37 pm

In post 5025, Kise wrote:Just curious.. would a hydra ever work between us, Mastin? I don't think we're ever on the same street. Although, I was scum in our previous 2 games.

I actually coordinate REALLY well with my hydra partners. (Except when I draw scum. In which case, I let them take control, as I suck as scum.

)

From Nacho to Lat/MT to Oversoul to Pine (WHEN HE ACTUALLY DOES HIS PART /grumblegrumblepalisadeisacursedhydra

) to Twistedspoon to AP.

Heck, I almost got to be the honorary hydra with Nero this game, even though it didn't quite work out that way. (His reads were good, but his charisma was lacking. Having my charisma would have helped him potentially push it through.)

A huge part of it is having a QT to coordinate (remember, I like to talk in my QTs...a lot

), but also actually knowing that the person you're talking to has the exact same role PM, and therefore does not possess an ulterior motive. And knowing that they share your alignment, that they're legitimate in what they're posting...it actually allows for a LOT of coordination.

There will always be hydra dissonance, but I'm generally the kind of guy who when experiencing dissonance will let my partner's reads dominate, at least while I go to check out the reasons why they have them.

mastin2 · Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:53 pm

In post 5029, Nero Cain wrote:Also Mastin hasn't made up a good hydra name yet.

I really can't think of anything good.

Pretty much every single hydra I've been in has been named at least partially (or entirely) by the other half. Calcifer was made well before my time, Horrifying Hero (or was it Horrific Hero?) was Lat's idea, Ovstin was Timeater's name, BirdAndBeast was AP's idea, and the one I most got involved with was Palisade. ('Cause, y'know, pun. Pine is a wood, I'm known for walls, and a palisade is a wooden wall.

) Even then, he made the final call.

I am not very name-inclined.

mastin2 · Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:41 am

In post 5037, The Baltimore Sun wrote:Mastin bringing it up and not thinking he'd be modkilled is bizzare.

I explained my reasoning in the dead QT pretty clearly.

Basically, I presented Cyber's post not as a means to clear myself, but as something to augment the already-existing defenses I had made. Not as some undeniable proof that I was town. (And as also commented in the dead QT, it clearly wasn't as explicit as some people think it was, given pidgey's reaction. He didn't buy it. He wasn't sold. He wanted further proof. Heck, if memory serves, Nero wasn't immediately convinced, either. He ultimately was, but he hesitated.)

The weakness was in the presentation, as I also explained in the dead QT. The intention of it was to bring it up and explain why it supported (key word: SUPPORTED, not proved) I was town...while also giving alternative explanations, explaining why it didn't explicitly clear me, why it wasn't undeniable proof, why I could be scum.

mastin2 · Wed Jan 23, 2013 5:44 am

And since I know you guys are too lazy to actually track the messages down...

Spoiler: Have them for your convenience

mastin2 · Wed Jan 23, 2013 8:59 am

In post 5040, Kublai Khan wrote:
In post 5039, mastin2 wrote:What was I supposed to do, not point it out at all despite having seen it and known it was now public information for viewing?

Yes, absolutely yes. Because what you did was cheating. You cleared yourself through information that wasn't thread generated.

On the slim chance that anyone in the game had checked out that link and discovered that you were town through information not present in the game thread, then they should have notified the mod and gotten replaced.

If any of your other "I'm town" links were actually worth a crap and you honestly believed that they would convince anyone that you were town, then you wouldn't have included that Cyber link.

Cyber unwittingly broke site rules, but you used that to your advantage in a game. You deserved the modkill.

Except that there were people in the game, who were checking out that thread. AP among them. He could have seen that link, and it would have influenced him. (Yes, he was scum, making it less likely that it'd influence him, but 1: it still could have, and 2: I didn't know he was scum, and if he were town, it DEFINITELY would have. Which brings me to point 3, in that if he hadn't been influenced, I would have, via me knowing he wasn't influenced. I could ask a simple question like "Hey, AP, did ya read the QTs for that game?" And if AP answered yes, with his vote still on me, I'd have known he was scum--see below.)

I had already referenced that game before, and posting a link to said game, when said game's mafia QT had been released, would have also increased the likelihood of Nero having found it.

Furthermore, the important factor here is that I knew about it. I saw it. I knew it was public information. I knew anyone who cared to was capable of tracking it down. I had seen it. How can I consciously, having seen evidence which strongly suggests I'm town, completely block that evidence from my own mind? Yes, I was the one with the role PM, yes, I already knew I was town, but...I also knew there was something strengthening my argument that anyone who chose to could find.

Hence, why I myself was compromised. I directly posted the link to the mafia QT from that game, but the knowledge could have just as easily been brought to the game, by me saying to check out Cyber's completed games, showing a bunch of irrelevant town games and his single extremely relevant scum game.

I knew that he had posted it, and once I knew, there was no way to completely block that. Deep-down, I'd have known, always known, that there was that post. And even if I could avoid mentioning Cyber's completed games, even if I went out of my way to cover up the knowledge I had learned, I'd have still possessed that knowledge, and known that it helped solidify my slot as being town. Even if left unpointed out, it would have changed my approach to the game, by making me take an entirely different angle.

Not only that, but actively hiding that you have outside knowledge is itself a bad thing. I knew the knowledge. I had it. It's not nearly as bad as learning another player's role, but it has much the same compromising effect. I knew something, which if I replaced into, say, pidgey's slot (which very, VERY easily could have happened, mind you!), would have been equally as bad. Yet this wasn't some super-secret inside knowledge that only I could have. It was public, and anyone who cared to look could find it.

What could the mod do in that situation, force-replace anyone who read that piece of info? When said info was in a very relevant game? It wasn't hidden. Anyone could see it, especially those who were in the game it happened in, and it applied to anyone who would have done their research.

That's one of the main reasons I didn't disagree with the modkill. It was a tricky situation, because of the info being publicly available. There was no way to hide the information. Even if it was from others, then there was no way to hide it from myself. I saw what I saw.

And as I said before, I was not using it to clear myself. If I actually thought that info would clear me, I wouldn't have posted it. (I'd have PM'd the mod about it.) There were many, many ways to write it off. There were many, many ways it could have been interpreted differently. There were many, many ways it could have been a lie. I, personally, knew it wasn't, but for all other people would be concerned, it could have been a complete and total fabrication.

Really, how come you seem to think it was so explicit? That Cyber's words could only be interpreted in that single way? I, the guy in the slot of question, thought of at least half a dozen ways for it to be false, yet only a single scenario for it to be true. I, the guy in the slot of question, didn't think that the single scenario was undeniably the most probable. He could have, for instance, merely forgotten he was ever in this game. It's happened to plenty of scummers before. He could have lied for the sake of maintaining his slot's integrity this game. Why was the answer "he was telling the truth" the only one people other than me considered?

As I said in the dead QT, I already thought my argument for me being town was strong. The link was meant to be the final nail in the coffin. To augment the existing case. Not the centerpiece of the whole display. I presented a case for why I was town. I offered why it was possible I was scum, but went to great lengths in order to explain why I wasn't. For me, the link was just a way to top it off.

I saw no advantage in having brought the knowledge in. My case was presented, so I was already in a good place. The advantage was already in my hands. I didn't need the link to turn my lynch around. (Regardless of whether you think that's true or not, you have to think of me at the time--I didn't THINK I would need the link.) So I posted it, not as an advantage to guarantee my lynch turned around, but as just the final piece of the puzzle saying I was town.

mastin2 · Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:43 am

In post 5044, Kublai Khan wrote:I'm still amazed that you've played over a hundred games and still do stuff like this. It's pointless. Any scum worth their salt can present a similar case as to why they are town with all pertinent links and what not. So why bother? Has it ever convinced anyone?

Your job as town is to find scum. If you want to avoid being lynched, then point out where the case on you is flawed. But to try to earnestly expect people to be convinced of your towniness just by saying stuff like "look at my posting here, isn't it very town?" is ludicrous.

Khan, I don't typically defend myself outside of lylo.

Granted, it wasn't lylo, but I was treating that day as if it was.

Lylo's a whole different beast from the rest of the game. I hate finding myself in there, much preferring to have died before then, so when I do get there, my play isn't exactly the strongest.

In lylo, I literally can

not

afford to have people thinking my "screw defense, I'm focusing on offense" attitude makes me scum. (See also--how jason treated Aco. Not quite the same, but it's the same principle.)

Outside of lylo, yeah. The best defense is a really, really good offense. I focus on lynching scum, and generally, am seen (rightfully so) as town for it. I learned my lesson pretty much two or three years ago on that, that I shouldn't be focused on defense.
But lylo is a whole different beast. If you're lynched, you lose. Not only that, but in lylo, you have to ask yourself why you're there...and that introduces a critical level of doubt. You can't afford to go in guns-a-blazing and have an all-out offense, in the (very likely) case that you're wrong on some (or all) of your reads.

During which time, you're vulnerable. If you don't have any offense, and you don't raise a good defense, you're going to get lynched.

I was still working on hammering out my reads--meaning, my offense was lacking.
I had plenty of suspicion on me, which offense was likely not going to help relieve--meaning, I needed something else.

When offense fails, the only real choice is to go on the defense for a while, which is exactly what I was doing: buying myself some time to solidify myself reads-wise.

And often-times, defense is a good way to lead into offense--by getting people's reactions off of my defense (whether they buy it, attack it, nitpick every detail in it, are skeptical, etc.), I can very often help solidify my reads. Making a defense act as a very low-tier reaction test.

tl;dr, in lylo, I don't push an offense I am unsure of (if I don't believe it, how are

they

supposed to?), I gather my reads, and address concerns of other players on me, to help gauge their alignment and to hopefully put their minds at rest as to my alignment.

mastin2 · Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:03 am

In post 5046, Kublai Khan wrote:That critical level of doubt is why it's pointless to present a case as to why you're town.

Quite the opposite, in my experience.

That critical level of doubt is why there's a point in presenting a case as to why you're town at all.

Your words hold actual power in lylo. The goals of scum and town may be nearly identical, and it's true that they can cherry-pick arguments...but the vital part of it is in two closely-tied factors:
-Their presentation, and
-Their overall picture.

If their presentation looks like it was cherry picking, chances are high they're reaching, especially if you look and find that it doesn't match the overall picture. (Such as, "X called me town here." When X had been consistently calling that player scum throughout the game, both before and ESPECIALLY after the quote in question.)
If their presentation presents the broader perspective of things, describing the general trends, then it's generally much more effective.

A town player in lylo has, above all other aspects, the ability to check the facts being claimed. A good town player won't half-ass it, and will see that a statement used in a case may be

technically

true (especially in isolation), but when put into context and/or the overall picture it doesn't hold weight.
And a good town player can therefore make a judgment on what has been said, both in offense and in defense.

...Essentially, though the words themselves in lylo may not be that important (scum and town both have the same motive: not to die), the presentation of them and the facts they bring to light are key, especially in a longer game with a lot to review.

And as I said before...A solid defense not only gives a town player much to think about (as they go see how much merit it has), but also offers the defending player (if town) to gauge how others are reacting to the defense. Are they looking into it? Do they buy it without question? Are they skeptical? Are they dismissive of it? Are they nitpicking every detail of it? All of those (especially if you have a grasp on the player and their attitude as town/scum/general) are HUGE in reading alignment. (Though in general, town players are both lazy and proactive, whereas scum players are active but reactive to it.)

mastin2 · Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:47 am

In post 5048, Kublai Khan wrote:You're ignoring the problem of confirmation bias.

Which throws out the "critical element of doubt" part.

If a town player has confirmation bias on another town player, the game's been lost. Plain and simple. If there is no role-based way to clear the suspected player, then nothing the player can say will do anything. Everything they say will be twisted to match the biased read, with the evidence morphing to fit.

If a town player lacks said confirmation bias, then by definition they have the critical element of doubt. Even if they're 95% certain of their read, the willingness to hear the evidence is what makes all the difference. And this is where the presentation comes in. Strong offense is a good start (especially if you are confident in your scumread), but the best case in lylo not only shows why who you're voting is scum, but also why you are NOT scum.

If the town player suspicious of you has confirmation bias, the loss is on their shoulders, not yours.
If the town player suspicious of you listens, weighs the evidence, and ultimately decides not to change their decision, then it depends; it's generally both your faults, them for having not analyzed things as well as they could (but there's hope for them yet, and they can learn from it), and you for not having presented things as well as you could (but you're on the right track and merely need to refine your technique). Obviously, it can be entirely their fault, but it's typically a bad idea to assume so without great justification.

If the town player suspicious of you listens, reads the evidence, and makes a correct read off of it...then the defense paid off.

Close-mindedness causes the death of far too many towns. (This one included. *coughcoughjasononacocougcough*

) But assuming you're not facing close-minded individuals (and that's an assumption you should always make!), you need to address them. Not showing why they're wrong (dismantling a case against you is a good way to reinforce the case in their minds

), but showing why you're town.

They sound the same, but the subtle difference between them makes all the difference.

That's one aspect of lylo which remains the same--you never, ever want to tell a player that they're wrong about everything; you'll end up antagonizing them. (Which in lylo, ensures you get lynched.

)
You want to convince them why you're right, why you are town and Player X is scum.

The goal here isn't to dissuade them from a lynch, but persuade them onto a lynch. Similar concepts, but they make all the difference.