Advertising Mafia - Over, see 1183

[Adel]

are these accounts "use them or lose them"?

Or, if we don't assign the tracker accoutns today, will we be able to use them tomorrow?

[Adel]

the bussdriver can protect the creative director.

[Adel]

Also, Ren Hoek = TSQ

[Adel]

are these accounts "use them or lose them"?

Or, if we don't assign the tracker accoutns today, will we be able to use them tomorrow?

ah, rule 24: "a list of role actions unique to each Day."

~~~

@TSQ, do you think the mafia has a kill each day?

~~~

should both tracker abilities go to the same creative team to mitigate the risk of scot being scum and the risk of 1/2 of a creative team being scum?

[Adel]

Does the above rule confirm it?

only if there is a kill without there being an assigned killing ability.

I'm town too. Two down.

~~~

distractions aside, I think the trick for this game is to establish a process for assigning roles that is robust enough to withstand the decisions of bad faith actors (scum) in the decision chain.

A "good enough" for choosing abilities, and assigning them

+

keeping the creative director alive, keep us in power roles.

Keep the CEO alive, and we get an additional back-up creative director.

~~~

I can see utility is assigning PGO and tracker to the same creative team. That would prevent the risk of scum targeting that creative team for a kill, and preserve the tracker result.

options:
A: Tracker + PGO to same team (scum won't target for a kill)
B: Tracker + Tracker to same team (scum would kill one of the trackers, and the remaining partner could be scum)
C: Bussdrive Creative Director with patsy
D: Assign PGO and Bussdriver to same creative team, switch High Value Target with PGO.
E: Assign tracker to two different creative teams. Also assign PGO to one of those teams (leaves creative director exposed)

[Adel]

I figured out that role assignments should be Tracker, bussdriver, PGO.
scot should assign PGO+Tracker to the same creative team, and busdriver to another.

The busdriver should target any two players who aren't a member of the other creative teams. The busdriver should not tell his creative team partner who he targeted until the next day when a full disclosure of all movements is made.

The scum will be limited to targeting a player who isn't on a creative team (for fear of hitting the PGO, or outing that they knew who the PGO was) and either the CEO or the CD will be a likely target for the busdriver.

Essentially, this plan will tie the scum hands to killing a member of the accounting team, the most vanilla members of this game.

[Adel]

so these people:

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive

can read the QT where this took place right?

How about Ren & Seraphy stop flooding the thread until the other accounting people weigh in?

[Adel]

I suggest that it be left unanswered, in the tradition of "don't direct the vig."

i agree.

[Adel]

That's a gutsy plan.

what is "gutsy" about it?

[Adel]

Earlier in the thread, the "safe" bet was to take two trackers and a roleblock. You are suggesting something radically different.

why were you happy to go along with that consensus?

[Adel]

why? which alternatives did you consider and why did you reject them?

[Adel]

so you posted this within two hours of the roles being introduced

Unvote

I think I want to hear from the other members of our team before we get a "hammer".

and you totally failed to do any further independent analysis, failed to collaborate with your accounting colleagues to examine other options, and failed to pressure other members of your accounting team to weigh in?

[Adel]

That's a gutsy plan.

what is "gutsy" about it?

Earlier in the thread, the "safe" bet was to take two trackers and a roleblock. You are suggesting something radically different.

so I ask you again, what is "gutsy" about my plan? It seems to me that I was just following through with due diligence that you have not displayed.

[Adel]

One problem is the part where you talk about the member of Group A deciding who to bus drive without telling partner. Both partners know who is targeted.

so long as we can make our submission via PM to Korts, our partner doesn't have to know what that submission was.

[Adel]

Who has played with Budja before?

[Adel]

from the signup thread:

Adel told me about these signups a day ago. The rules and roles seem a little complicated for my tastes, so I'd like to see the game run for a little while before I decide to jump into it.

/in to replace

I found the theme a bit overwhelming at first too.

Talking out finer points with Korts pulls everything together nicely.

@Nuwen: what were the finer points you talked about? What did you learn from that exchange with Korts?

[Adel]

So, now I'm counting the number of players, which is 14. 14 meaning there'll probably be 4 scum (calculating by 2 in 7p, therefore 4 in 14p)

Korts and I are both members of the open setup commission -- and we both know that scum group size does not increase as a linear function of town size. I'm not saying that there isn't 4 players in the scum group, but "

(calculating by 2 in 7p, therefore 4 in 14p)

" would not be how Korts arrived at 4 players in a scum group.

Acc services has 6 players (including head), therefore, there's a good chance of there being 2 in there. If Head of Acc is scum, therefore there's a chance of there being a 3 to 4 vote of scum vs town in deciding the roles, needing only one gullible townie to pass a vote in mafia's favour.

I think this is false as well. The voting of the Acc is transparent, and we can hold them to makeing good decision by threatening to lynch them if they make choices that are not in the town's best interests.

Therefore, I suggest that Acc Exec unvote atm, instead, the entire town will vote using a fake vote, making condensation improbable of being 3 to 4, and being 4 to 14, much better odds for the town

not a bad idea. More democracy should result in less probable scum influence.

Adel: What do you think of using a roleblocker instead of a tracker?

while I agree with the "stopping kill + identifying scum > identifying scum" argument... that is not the true choice that we have. The RB could not target a member of another creative team for fear of blocking the busdriver.

• 1. RB: won't target another creative team for fear of blocking the busdriver -> scum assign one of their members on the creative team to send in the kill
  2. Tracker -> Can target anyone in the game except for his creative team partner.

I see the RB option as being less restrictive for the scum.

[Adel]

lynching.

[Adel]

List of roles from most important to least important:

CD
CEO
Creative Team Members
Acc Team Members

~~~

1. The CD assigns PGO+Tracker to one Creative Team, and Bussdriver to another Creative team. Which teams he picks remains secret until the next day.
2. The Creative team assigned PGO+Tracker assigns PGO to one member and Tracker to the Other.
3. The Tracker tracks anyone besides his Creative partner. He does not tell his partner who he tracked until the next day.
4. The Busdriver switches 2 of any players not on a different creative team from himself (he picks two from: CEO, CD, Acc Team, and his own creative team partner). He does not tell his partner who he picked until the next day.

The important part is that the Tracker can only be safely targeted by the scum if his partner (The PGO) is scum. We will get his results, guaranteed.

The CEO or the CD will be one probable target for the scum kill. The bus driver gets to throw up wifom by probably switching one of them with a member of the Acc team.

[Adel]

We really want to keep the CEO and/or the creative director alive, assuming they are town, because it sounds like town gets at most 3 creative directors this game, then town loses all roles

I read it as "at most 2 CDs this game" -- I think we only get to elect a new CD if the CEo is dead and hasn't used his one-shot ability to elect a new member yet.

[Adel]

Wait a second...I was wrong, I think you can't use the bus driver to re-direct someone and make them target the paranoid gun owner.

that wasn't the point. The point was to cause either the CD or the CEO be hidden from scum guns.

So, the bus driver has to TARGET two players, and if one of them is the PGO, then the bus driver would die, right?

that is my understanding.

[Adel]

@yos: how many qt threads do you have access to?

[Adel]

mod: Were alignments randomly assigned?

[Adel]

p.s. please poke SensFan and vollkan before this game gets too long. Neither of them have posted yet.

[Adel]

I prefer tracker to RB because it is more limiting for the scum, and there are a couple more ways that I can see for the scum to break the RB plan, depending upon who is scum.

The difference, I admit, is quite slim, but I definitely prefer the tracker plan.

[Adel]

from the signup thread:

Adel told me about these signups a day ago. The rules and roles seem a little complicated for my tastes, so I'd like to see the game run for a little while before I decide to jump into it.

/in to replace

I found the theme a bit overwhelming at first too.

Talking out finer points with Korts pulls everything together nicely.

@Nuwen: what were the finer points you talked about? What did you learn from that exchange with Korts?

My scumchat logs autoprune after they reach a specific size, lest they take over my hard drive. Korts' general gist was an explanation of the game's layout, role mechanics, department responsibilities - everything that's laid out in the setup outline, but in a more digestible format.

many

more details please. and quick.

[Adel]

hammer please, so we can move on.

[Adel]

vote:vollkan

for posting so much elsewhere on the site, just not in this thread.

[Adel]

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

[Adel]

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

Nothing concrete yet, but if I had to vote it would go on Ren Hoek for what seemed to be massive overreaching.

how about now?

[Adel]

Since I don't think that scum stick their necks out in broad daylight to work wagons on players that are threatening or inconvenient, that is exactly what I was doing. Now I don't understand why everyone is voting for me.

fixed.

unvote, vote: Ren Hoek

[Adel]

I think the optimal scum kill choice was a member of the accounts team

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive

I think that they tried to pick who the most likely target for the bussdriver switch would be. Thankfully, the odds were against them. The tracker is alive. You are welcome.

[Adel]

I especially hate how he calls a game full of great players (vollkan, adel, yos), full of idiots.

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

[Adel]

Yeah. What TDC said, Ren Hoek. The scum killed someone who was voting for you. If they had killed someone who was not voting for you, you would be dead right now.

Anyway, if the scum only get one kill a day, then the roles should be safe now, and tommorow there will be someone different in the roels anyway. So if the tracker saw anything, they should feel free to claim now; there's no risk to it now that the scum have already used their kill for the day.

tracker doesn't get results until end of day. Tracker should not claim until after he gets results.

[Adel]

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

why do you think he is weaker than Ren Hoek?

[Adel]

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

this doesn't jive with

Ok, I got how Adel's plan works, and I think it's the best plan presented yet, partially because it's the only one I have fully understood

The most valuable role would probably end up getting switched with one of the weakest players... and I think you understood that.

unvote, vote:FaerieLord

[Adel]

unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

beg pardon?

[Adel]

unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

beg pardon?

Well, if FL said she understood your plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

[Adel]

unless you are saying that FL's earlier statement about understanding your plan is effectively contradicted by her statement that the scum chose Seraphim.

beg pardon?

Well, if FL said she understood your plan, that entails that she understands that part of the rationale for the plan is that it allows for a situation where scum targeting a high profile target can have that target busdriven with a less high profile target. As such, it wouldn't make sense for her to appear so surprised by the death of Seraphim or, more accurately, for her to say that scum "chose" Seraphim (since, given the earlier statement, she should recognise the prospect of busdriving)

and why would a player that understood my plan claim to be surprised by a weaker player getting killed?

Most likely, either to feign surprise generally (sort of like an "Oh damn, X was NKed!") or, more specifically and strategically, to smear more high profile targets who were not killed.

do you think that it is probable that either of those would be motivated by a town aligned alignment?
Do you think it is more probable that he didn't understand my plan, but innocently thought that he did?

[Adel]

or, more specifically and strategically, to smear more high profile targets who were not killed.

like who?

[Adel]

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

he refers to "that list" which I assume references

I think the optimal scum kill choice was a member of the accounts team

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive

I think that they tried to pick who the most likely target for the bussdriver switch would be. Thankfully, the odds were against them. The tracker is alive. You are welcome.

which you will note came before FL posted:

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

which is a wold apart from

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill.

.. I'd already connected the majority of the dots for FL, and yet he still posted

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

I don't buy it.

[Adel]

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL, summarizing the strengths and weaknesses of the case against each, and please conclude by telling us who you think is scum.

~~~

@crywolf, where is that large post you had against Serephim?

[Adel]

Adel your thoughts on Sens? What do you think of his vote at the start of the phase? Your thoughts on his wagon? Your current position on ren?

I'm holding my cards close to my chest for now. I want other players to contribute more, and I don't want to serve as a pathfinder for the scum to get a mislynch.

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL...

Why are you guiding the lurkers to limit their analysis, and consequently their votes among 3 players?

I'm asking them specific questions in a specific way so that we can compare their answers, and the overall purpose is to get more even amounts of participation in thsi game.

Is that a sneaky way to give them excuses not to scum hunt?

It is a direct way to get them to comment on the three active wagons currently in play.

Do you happen to know that all three of these players are town, and therefore, all good lynches from your perspective? Are your buddies among the lurkers?

From a Ren-town perspective, how could these question possibly help the town win? It looks to me like you might be spamming up the game thread with pointless dialog in an attempt to corrupt the signal:noise ratio. Keep it up and I'll commit to mitigating that risk by pushing for your lynch as quickly as possible. Diarrhea of the hands is not pro-town.

[Adel]

I'm holding my cards close to my chest for now. I want other players to contribute more, and I don't want to serve as a pathfinder for the scum to get a mislynch.

Which is bullshit since you're voting for me, meaning you're still giving them a "pathfinder". I'm still curious as to why you decide to be non commital to one person, but commit to the other side of it.

I've got Sensfan in a private QT topic. My vote is on you for the reasons I've posted, but I have not updated my opinion in this game thread to reflect developments since I initially posted my case against you.

Also keep in mind that the game was stalled when I posted my case against you, and now it isn't. Our less active players now have plenty to comment upon.

[Adel]

woot, I've finally got pictures above my avatar!

[Adel]

Also, I'm heartbroken that you are not saying anything about Adel's latest.

I'm heartbroken that Nuwen is getting replaced despite remaining active on this site. Why do you think she has not been posting?

[Adel]

@All, have anyone played with Ren before. If so, is this usual behaviour for him?

Ren is an alt that has only been used for this game. Based off of Ren's posts in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... t=#1625218
Nuwen concluded that Ren was not TSQ. Based upon the time/date stamps between TSQ posts and Ren's posts on this site, I suspect that Ren actually is TSQ, and the posts in the "Goodbye All" thread were designed to disguise Ren's identity.

You can review all of Ren's posts on this site by viewing http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... 3&start=50 -- his first post on this site clearly outs him as an alt.

~~~

@Ren: are you TSQ?

[Adel]

I plead the fifth.

which other alts have you used in the last 6 months?
By providing a full and accurate answer I can use your total site meta to determine your alignment with a much better chance of being correct.

[Adel]

@ Adel - stop. You're just going to have to live without a meta.

you have two prods. I suspect that your other alts were busy posting while you were neglecting this game.

[Adel]

unvote, vote: crywolf20084

she has plenty of time to make plenty of tother post: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... ywolf20084
lurker-scum in this game

[Adel]

meeting Yhtill in the mountains tomorrow.

V/LA for 86 hours from this post.

[Adel]

I'm back, and I'm disappointed in all of you.

[Adel]

ok, but I am not satisfied that Crywolf asking for replacement should be considered a null-tell on her.

unvote, vote:Budja

[Adel]

nope, but I'll give you some fodder to base some posts upon:

[Adel]

Scot, you were defending the people he was attacking. To lump you in with the other people he thought was scum is natural for a townie, not OMGUS.

[Adel]

thanks guys, but I'm looking forward to Budja's analysis of it. That is why I posted it.

[Adel]

nope, just you.

[Adel]

So you think I'm scum with Ren and FL and...budja?

I'm so tired of that rhetorical trick. Yes, I do have a list of prime suspects, and yes that list has more than three names. That I am suspicious of more than three people does not undermine the legitimacy of my suspicions.

[Adel]

Is that all that you have Budja? I'm expected longer & denser posts from Budja-town. Much more analysis.

[Adel]

in the post-game of Mini 802 you posted:

After the lynch, I thought Konowa was the Godfather, Jahudo the Arsonist.

I (unintentionally) played 100% to my scum meta and survived .

what was your scum meta that you played 100% to?

[Adel]

one more question: why were you lynched on day 1 of Mini 764?

[Adel]

I'm not willing to let Sens get lynched today. I do not think he is scum.

[Adel]

what were the scum slips?

[Adel]

Theres not a lot to analyse there.

those posts I posted are numbered from 1 to 29. Where do those posts numbers fit in with the main game thread?

For example, when I posted "scot calling OMGUS on you is bullshit." what was the number of the last game post in this thread?

[Adel]

you didn't already have that figured out before you posted your "analysis"?

[Adel]

try it, so that you are reading them within the context of the main thread, rather than just as a collection of posts.

~~~

what do you think of scot pushing for the lynch of a person who had (as far as he knew) a 50% chance of being a tracker?

[Adel]

also, what do you think of scot posting

Vote: SensFan

Not only are you taking what FL said out of context (he wished there was a random voting stage because the game was stalled), you have ignored Ren Hoek. Instead of explaining why the points agianst Fl are "solid" (they aren't, btw) you try to turn it against him.

when he had also ignored Ren Hoek?

[Adel]

are you just lurking and posting only when you name comes up?

[Adel]

you are clearly trying to keep a low profile.

Um, where did I ignore Ren Hoek?

other than

Scottyscum giving powers to the scum would be a major drawback to the game, as we'd be wasting tracking results on players that will mislead us.

If scot is scum, and gives power to the scum, what power should we let him hand out? Just a theoretical mafia question.

Not only are you convinced that I am scum, for some reason you assume there is scum on the creative department, something that no one but scum would know about. Hmmmm.

which was quite ealry in the game, and which you failed to follow up on, and

I have a strong reason to believe Ren Hoek is town. Everyone voting for him needs to explain what they think about the self-vote.

There is no reason why anyone voting for Ren should change their mind because of the self vote. It is a null tell; it does not prove he is town, nore does it prove that he is scum.

I'm not really buying the whole thing against fl right now.

you haven't commented on Ren's probable alignment or the case against him.


but you did comment on Sensfan ignoring Ren. Where did Sens ignore Ren, and how did he ignore Ren in a way that you did not?

[Adel]

unvote, vote:Goatrevolt

look at his last three posts in this game, and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Goatrevolt to see why

[Adel]

Adel: Why did you grab Tracker over the PGO?

I decided that I needed to target you.

Also I dispute the assertion that the RB plan would have been better for scum than the tracker plan. It would only be worse if the RB was unwilling to take any kind of risks whatsoever.

or if the RB was scum.

~~~

I don't have a meta on Crywolf

[Adel]

tracker doesn't get results until end of day. Tracker should not claim until after he gets results.

What changed from this to your decision to reveal yourself?

Goat claimed role and target.

~~

Goatrevolt, what were the exact words in the PM you sent to Korts choosing your targets?

[Adel]

Adel: Why did you grab Tracker over the PGO?

I decided that I needed to target you.

Really? Why? I'm extremely curious why you all of a sudden made this decision that you needed to target me.

intuition mostly, I didn't like your post's frequency and they felt a little artificial.

tracker doesn't get results until end of day. Tracker should not claim until after he gets results.

What changed from this to your decision to reveal yourself?

Goat claimed role and target.

You revealed you were the tracker prior to that. Why?

That is what I get for posting really late at night: I misread TDC's simple question. I didn't like the wagon on Sens, and I thought that scot was scummy. I felt that revealing our conversation would help keep Sens frm being lynched today. I did not ask Sens or let him know that I would be posting the screen shots. I did ask Korts.

Goatrevolt, what were the exact words in the PM you sent to Korts choosing your targets?

"I'm going to bus drive from Scotmany to Seraphim."

So there is no conceivable reason why my tracker result will show you targeting Seraphim?

~~~
So, assuming that my tracker result doesn't make a liar out of Goat, I see scot as being about as close to confirmed as possible without a cop investigation (low probability exception: scot is scum with Goat) and Goat is just a little bit less confirmed than scot.

With scot confirmed, I want FL dead. The risk of him being scum and pulling shenanigans is dangeruous. In fact, I want him quicklynched so that if he is scum he will not be able to use his one-shot to assign a new (unconfirmed) CD.

unvote, vote:FaerieLord

[Adel]

for adel

--

What happened in between the “take whatever you want post” and “nm, I will take tracker.”

I thought about it, and decided that I had a strong hunch on who to investigate, and that I didn't really trust Sens.

Please vote for FL now.

[Adel]

we are only able to elect a new CD if the CEO is dead (without having appointed a new CD) and the sitting CD dies.

[Adel]

Can you give an example of a post of mine that felt artificial?

I just skimmed your post in isolation, and I think it was the number of one-line posts. At the time I was skimming some of your posts in other games in isolation, and I got a "keeping a low profile" vibe from you in this game, like you were trying to stay just active enough to not be noticed as not being active.

[Adel]

Since when are quick lynches beneficial for the town?

when it grants a structural advantage to the town.

Also, for the record, can you please restate your case Adel?

with a confirmed CD, you are a role that is high risk (if you are scum) and low reward (if you are town) since what you add to the game (ability to replace CD) is redundant as we can elect a new CD.

You "acted" surprised when Seraphim was killed, and I do not believe that was an honest response. That Budja, a player who is clearly not paying attention to detail, made the same mistake does little to support your innocence in my mind, since I think you are more competent than he is.

Without overwhelming evidence of your innocence, I think you should die. This is early in the game, and you are too high risk and low reward for you to be left alive.

[Adel]

when have you even been blown away by the strength of an argument on day 1?

later in the game with scot still alive a living FL-scum could appoint another player to be CD, and we would be stuck with that player as CD or we would have to choose to be without powerroles. With FL dead we will have an insurance policy on scot, so that we will be able to get another confirmed player to take his place should he die. FL-scum has the power to sabotage our ability to keep a confirmed player in the CD role, and our ability to keep a CD alive in this game.

[Adel]

... and it needs to be a quicklynch so that the scum team won't have a chance to discover the optimal tactic to use from this point to defend FL.

[Adel]

when have you even been blown away by the strength of an argument on day 1?

Never. But we are talking about knocking off the CEO in short order on Day 1. It better be good.

in order to assure the security of our confirmed CD, he needs to die. "CEO" is just a title, with a confirmed CD he has no positive value over any other role, only the liability of being scum and having a big negative impact on our ability to have power roles assigned by a person we trust.

... and it needs to be a quicklynch so that the scum team won't have a chance to discover the optimal tactic to use from this point to defend FL.

Like, what are they going to do? I feel dense.

I'm really not going to answer that, and I don't think that you are dense.

[Adel]

awesome! We only need four more votes to get this!

[Adel]

I am keenly interested in OhGodMyLife's opinion upon all of this.

Getting the ball rolling on my new mini theme took up the majority of my MS time today. Sorry for the delay, I'll start in on this tomorrow.

[Adel]

That's the reason I asked Adel about my thoughts on the FL case at the end. To be clear, if it wasn't from my quoted thoughts, I just can't see what is so damning about the reaction to Seraph's death. Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

huh, you didn't seem to have that problem earlier:

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

he refers to "that list" which I assume references

I think the optimal scum kill choice was a member of the accounts team

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive

I think that they tried to pick who the most likely target for the bussdriver switch would be. Thankfully, the odds were against them. The tracker is alive. You are welcome.

which you will note came before FL posted:

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

which is a wold apart from

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill.

.. I'd already connected the majority of the dots for FL, and yet he still posted

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

I don't buy it.

Better point.

then you lurked for three days, and posted your

Relative Evaluation:

For starters, I like the FL case least of all. Innocent misunderstanding is possible, but I can't see what the understanding would be then. More potently, I think, is Budja's point about the prospect of it simply being a failure to "join the dots". If anything, I would probably expect such a failure to come from town more than scum; town having less of a reason to be immediately thinking strategically about the result in terms of busdriving. Since, aside from that, FL hasn't leaped out at me as scummy, I don't think it is a strong case.

The Sens and Ren cases are similar and I frankly have trouble weighing them up. For what it's worth, the biggest single point on Ren, in my view, is the contradiction. The biggest on Sens is the FL attack.

which offers no real opinion (rare for volkan-town) on the difference between Sensfan and Ren. You dismiss the very case against FL you had agreed with three days before.

and then you lurk for another three days, and then make a single post:

@ vollkan

Limiting your analysis to 3 players (suggested by another player, Adel) doesn't sit well with me. Are you unable or unwilling to think for yourself and put pressure on players that have gotten away with lurking or flying under the radar, for instance? Adel himself isn't worthy of being looked at? What about Budja?

I think you are beating up on this unreasonably. Sure, that post only dealt with three people, but nothing I have said in any way implied that I am somehow limiting my analysis to those three.

I'd go with Volkan's list, except he appears to not really care about looking at the attack in detail, given he missed the relevence about me not having any votes, and threw some general nondescript about how certain words I used are "an easy way to smear", without saying why they were bad in this case.

What was the relevance of you not having votes on you? I really don't see what the link is here. You having no votes on you has no bearing on whether or not voting someone else to L-1 is chicken

To elaborate on the smearing thing. I think that certain words - "wifom", "strawman", "misrepresent" as obvious examples - have a tendency to be overused and overstretched as a means of turning misunderstanding into a pseudo-scumtell. I don't see any strawman in the "i don't have any votes thing", because I'm still confused as to what sensible meaning can come from it. As for the misrepresenting thing, it's not at all unreasonable that Ren would see your response of "Awesome, thanks for letting me know" as showing some eagerness. Maybe you didn't mean it that way. But that doesn't make it a "misrepresentation". Just to be clear, the words I've identified are often entirely appropriate in this game, but they are also very often misused.

and then you lurk for another three days, apparently missing when I posted:

Since when are quick lynches beneficial for the town?

when it grants a structural advantage to the town.

Also, for the record, can you please restate your case Adel?

with a confirmed CD, you are a role that is high risk (if you are scum) and low reward (if you are town) since what you add to the game (ability to replace CD) is redundant as we can elect a new CD.

You "acted" surprised when Seraphim was killed, and I do not believe that was an honest response. That Budja, a player who is clearly not paying attention to detail, made the same mistake does little to support your innocence in my mind, since I think you are more competent than he is.

Without overwhelming evidence of your innocence, I think you should die. This is early in the game, and you are too high risk and low reward for you to be left alive.

where I summarized why I think FL should be the lynch, and QUICKLY!

now you have forgotten why you agreed with me?

[Adel]

Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

it is day 1, you are not presenting a clear alternative case, and this is definitely a time sensitive thing I am trying to pull off. The faster we lynch FL the better.

WE NEED MORE VOTES ON FL AND QUICKLY!

[Adel]

@ckd i dont think that he understands that he is actually going to get lynched quickly, and using his one-shot prematurity will out him as scum, so he is going to be cautious about using it. Also, he has a real life, and I don't think he is staying on top of this game right now. We do have a chance to quicklynch him without him using his oneshot, if we can get four more votes before he figures out that it is either use it or lose it time.

[Adel]

FL-scum would know that his team targeted scot, so when I asked him why he thought the scum targeted Seraphim, the natural reaction for scum is to plead ignorance.

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

he refers to "that list" which I assume references

I think the optimal scum kill choice was a member of the accounts team

• vollkan - Head of Account Services
  crywolf20084 - Account Executive
  Ren Hoek - Account Executive
  Nuwen - Account Executive
  curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
  Seraphim - Account Executive

I think that they tried to pick who the most likely target for the bussdriver switch would be. Thankfully, the odds were against them. The tracker is alive. You are welcome.

which you will note came before FL posted:

why do you think that vollkan wasn't the kill choice for the scum?

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

(Also, still V/LA. Have unexpected internet access for the next few hours)

which is a wold apart from

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill.

.. I'd already connected the majority of the dots for FL, and yet he still posted

I am honestly not sure why they chose seraphim considering he is the weakest link (in my opinion) from that list.

I don't buy it.

Better point.

he understood my plan and yet never suggested that either the busdriver switched targets on the scum kill, or that the scum tried to kill the person who would be switched.

why do you think he is weaker than Ren Hoek?

Because from what I've seen Ren is capable of doing some scum hunting. Sera was pretty passive throughout.

The most valuable role would probably end up getting switched with one of the weakest players... and I think you understood that.

It took me three times to get what you're saying and now I realize what you're getting it. You're saying it was either driven from a good player to a worse player or scum targetted a worse player as to avoid being driven but retain choice.

A player who had not yet linked the two together upon seeing the kill. It took me a little while to join the dots and I did understand your plan so I'm seeing this as null.

This. I understood how it worked but didn't get it until you pointed it out just now

(Ok, I'm really V/LA now. Should be leaving in thirty minutes)

now he suddenly understands?

Hanlon's razor (Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity) is a good adage for those of us living in the real world where there aren't many really bad faith actors. In mafia about 25% of us are bad faith actors, and we have to look for signs of malice. Feigned ignorance is the scumtell I hold against FL, but the major reason I want him lynched is because there isn't anything that makes me think that he is less likely to be scum than anyone else, and with scot confirmed and CD we should be able to lock this game up and use the power roles each day to give us more and more confirmed town players. The best way we can break the mechanic of this game is to keep a confirmed player in the CD role, and FL-scum could take that advantage away from us.

[Adel]

Adel's point about high-risk is a legitimate one, but I don't think the case against FL is enough to justify a lynch.

in a nutshell, even assuming that he has the same likelihood of being scum as random chance, I think it is clear that we should lynch him. From the POV of other town players there are 3 players who are close to confirmed (self + scot + GR), and there are 13 players alive. Assuming that there are three scum, each remaining player has a baseline of a 33% chance of being scum. That 33% chance + the huge negative impact of FL-scum appointing a new CD of unknown alignment = enough reason for me to advocate his lynch in the strongest possible way.

[Adel]

@Mod:

are you replacing Crywolf?

[Adel]

by my count:
(6) FaerieLord- Goatrevolt, Adel, Ren Hoek, TDC, Budja, Yosarian2,

I have much more sympathy for your argument here, then for the actual scumtell alleged against FL. I was going to say that you are ignoring the cost of losing a town-FL's ability, but then I realised that Scot's effectively confirmed status and the existence of the public vote really negate that cost.

I thought I'd pointed that out a couple of times.

will you hammer please?

[Adel]

thank you.

[Adel]

⁽¹³⁾ Please vote in bold, such as

Code: Select all

[b]vote: Korts[/b]

Unvoting is not necessary, but I'd prefer it if you did anyway.

so this means that TDC's vote was legal, so that should be a hammer.

[Adel]

I agree.

[Adel]

GR did target scot, according to the tracker report I just got from Korts.

[Adel]

I personally thought there was only, say, a 30%-40% chance FL was scum (to pull a number out of thin air), but the risk of letting him live at that point was unacceptable.

that was my perception as well, and I wasn't expecting to have a much higher level of confidence against anyone else.

[Adel]

- Adel is rubbing me the wrong way, focusing too much on theory/breaking-the-game and too little on analyzing the other players.

why is figuring out the mechanics in play anti-town? with 14 living players, and most of them not having an especially solid grasp of the mechanics, I thought that was where my talents would best be directed.

- Top of page six, Adel seems to be asking leading Qs of seraphim that are designed specifically to make him look scummy, not actually ascertain whether what he did was more likely to come from scum

his post

I think the CEO is also privy to the quicktopic. But yes, I'm willing to comment on the task at hand.

That's a gutsy plan. If you were the Creative Director, who would get which abilities?

really struck me the wrong way, and I was trying to get some traction on him. I suspected that he was scum attempting to undermine my plan, or figure out what his team's reaction should be to it.

- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.

the actual post:

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

and it did get vollkan posting.

- Ironic that in post 382 Adel doesn't want to "serve as a pathfinder" for a mislynch but then as far as I can tell ends up being the major thrust behind the FL mislynch.

the entire post that one word "pathfinder" was drawn from:

Adel your thoughts on Sens? What do you think of his vote at the start of the phase? Your thoughts on his wagon? Your current position on ren?

I'm holding my cards close to my chest for now. I want other players to contribute more, and I don't want to serve as a pathfinder for the scum to get a mislynch.

crywolf20084, vollkan, TDC and Budja (& Nuwen or replacements) are behind the curve on activity.

Please compare and contrast the cases against Ren, Sensfan, and FL...

Why are you guiding the lurkers to limit their analysis, and consequently their votes among 3 players?

I'm asking them specific questions in a specific way so that we can compare their answers, and the overall purpose is to get more even amounts of participation in thsi game.

Is that a sneaky way to give them excuses not to scum hunt?

It is a direct way to get them to comment on the three active wagons currently in play.

Do you happen to know that all three of these players are town, and therefore, all good lynches from your perspective? Are your buddies among the lurkers?

From a Ren-town perspective, how could these question possibly help the town win? It looks to me like you might be spamming up the game thread with pointless dialog in an attempt to corrupt the signal:noise ratio. Keep it up and I'll commit to mitigating that risk by pushing for your lynch as quickly as possible. Diarrhea of the hands is not pro-town.

I think it is one of the stronger anti-Ren posts in this game, and I think it is interesting that you focused on the irony. Chainsaw defense, I think.

- Post 391 is a cheap shot from Adel. Its like a madlib where the blank says

Scummy Reason

underneath it. She doesn't even have to come up with her own, everyone else will just fill it in themselves after this post.

Also, I'm heartbroken that you are not saying anything about Adel's latest.

I'm heartbroken that Nuwen is getting replaced despite remaining active on this site. Why do you think she has not been posting?

My theory was, and is, that because she has had serious RL drama with TSQ, and figured out that TSQ=Ren, she replaced out.

- Bottom of 16/Top of 17 - Alt hunting is a waste of time. It is unimportant.

have you ever played with TSQ? Do you doubt that Ren is an alt? If Ren is TSQ will that help you determine Ren's alignment?

- Yos continuing to push the "scum killed someone on the Ren wagon therefore Ren is scum" line of attack is really, really scummy.

why? The same though occurred to me. I really didn't think that the scum would've targeted scot, for fear of the busdriver, and I was trying to figure out why Serapham was targeted by scum, and saving Ren's bacon seemed like a plausible cause.

- I'm following scot's reasoning much better now. Early game random thing was probably honest. Ren's reaction to it still makes him town.

how does Ren's reaction make him honest? More importantly, how do you equate Ren's corruption of the signal:noise ratio in this thread with a likely-town alignment?

- Digesting Adel's post of the QT... honestly, it looks good right up to Adel calling people being willing to go after Sens a town-tell for him. The wagon on Sens at this point was a whopping two votes. I'm pretty sure Sens is scum and Adel is either scum with him or totally taken in by virtue of sharing a QT with him.

It seemed to me that Ren was scum, and Sens was taking heat as an alternative to a Ren-scum lynch.

- OK, hold the phone. Adel's quicklynch FL plan looks good at first glance, but on a deeper level it is seriously, seriously terrible. I don't know why at this point Goat is the only one who has pointed out that Ren is very very probably town based on busdrive etc but this fact leaves FL and Sens as the only really viable wagons left. So Adel suddenly comes up with some crazy break-the-game theory of why FL should be quicklynched no questions asked? I call shenanigans. Adel was saving Sens' bacon, pure and simple.

did you note the posts where I explicitly stated that I did not Sens lynched? I didn't, and I still don't. His play has been sloppy, and he has been making sub-optimal posts regardless of what his alignment is. I fail to see a scum-motivation for his sloppiness, and RL drama seems like a good explanation. I see him as a relatively un-invested townie popping in and typing some words, and not thinking carefully enough about the game: mislynch material.

- It should have been clear from FL posting after Adel potentially blew up scum-FL's spot with the "lets quicklynch him" post and

not

swapping out scot that FL was town and not in need of quicklynching.

which post number should FL-scum have swapped scot out by? At which post number should we have concluded that FL was town?

Scumbags

Sens
Yos
(Adel)

why is my name in parenthesis?

[Adel]

- Adel's vote and explanation of wanting to see if anyone would follow her is very scummy. There was a whole lot more to work with than just a lurker.

the actual post:

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote.

glad to see that you are active again.

who do you think is scum?

and it did get vollkan posting.

more importantly, he wasn't actually lurking.

vote:vollkan for posting so much elsewhere on the site, just not in this thread.

Okay, a few points in reply:
1) As I said, I've had exams. I haven't been posting as much as usual anywhere, and I am only in two games atm.

2) Posted by Korts on Tuesday July 7:

SensFan has been prodded;

vollkan hasn't picked up his role and alignment yet

. If he doesn't pick it up until tomorrow, he will be replaced. CKD's V/LA is noted.

3) So, if we go to my profile and have a look at my posting since finding the PM:
- Advertising Mafia Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:11 pm
- Advertising Mafia Tue Jul 07, 2009 10:59 pm
- Mini 806 Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:05 am
- Favourite Book Tournament Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:51 am
- Mini 806 Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:56 pm
- Advertising Mafia Fri Jul 10, 2009 1:58 pm

Mind explaining the basis upon which you asserted that I was "posting so much elsewhere"?

this is how I check for lurkers:

unvote, vote:Goatrevolt

look at his last three posts in this game, and http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... Goatrevolt to see why

which brings up the same information volkan cited.

my stated reason for the gambit was "to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote" -- I wanted to poke vollkan since he was being quiet, and I am weary of lazy townies votes without thinking, especially during day 1 -- it makes later voting analysis much harder.

If I wanted to start a lurker hunt, I would've picked a legitimate lurker.

[Adel]

thanks to OGML's post I finally payed attention to this

I can't see scum taking what amounts to a 50/50 chance of killing one of their own, so unless GR is scum, scot is probably town.

Also, since they knew he would be busdriven with an accountant but did it anyway, it must've seemed unlikely for them to be busdriven (again, assuming GR to be town).
So either all accountants are town, or someone felt pretty good about not being selected. Not sure about the others, but I think the risk was significant for Ren there.

voting for Ren at the moment of Serapham's death: Seraphim, Budja, Yosarian2, Adel, vollkan, SensFan, Ren Hoek

vollkan - Head of Account Services
crywolf20084 - Account Executive
Ren Hoek - Account Executive
Nuwen - Account Executive
curiouskarmadog - Account Executive
Seraphim - Account Executive

my theories, as they occur to me:
1. the incompetent scum-team theory: they thought that scot wouldn't be a bus-driver choice, so they targeted him, or they thought that there was enough of a chance that he wouldn't be targeted that killing him would send the rest of the town into fits, and they decided to risk it.
2. GR is scum theory: goat picked the kill and the bus drive, therefore he saved Ren's bacon. He would have trouble explaining why he picked vollkan over seraphim.
3. scum-free accounting team theory: no scum on the accounting team, scum pick scot for the kill, no risk, or there is only one scum on the team who isn't crywolf or seraphim or ren.
4. suicidal Ren-scum: Ren is about to get lynched anyway, so kill scot, Ren (scum) is a likely target for busdrive (no loss) and so is Seraphim (saves Ren's bacon) but then so is Crywolf.

~~~

crywolf also replaced out of a second game that I know of at the same time she replaced out of this one.

I think that ckd and vollkan both would've had a reasonable expectation of not being targeted by a bus driver.

I'm not very willing to suspect GR right now, and I think that Sens is town.

I think that crywolf20084 and Nuwen would not target scot as scum for fear of getting the busdriver redirect.

I still have a really scummy feeling about Ren, and if I knew for sure whose alt he was I could correct his playstyle against his meta... but I'm willing to give him a pass, he could be BM or ABR or Guardian or Xtoxm almost as easily as he could be TSQ. I'm giving him a pass for now.

That leaves:
vollkan
curiouskarmadog
OGML
Yos2
TDC
Budja

as my lynch candidates. I do not have a preference at this time.

[Adel]

@yos, why don't you think it is scummy how goat grabbed the busdriver without consulting with you? You mentioned in the threads that sens not grabbing tracker should be a minor town tell, so why don't you think that goat grabbing busdriver isn't a minor scum tell for him?

[Adel]

@TDC: you concluded that scum targeting scot for the kill is a town tell for the accounting team. I've concluded that the scot kill is only a town tell for the high-probability bus driver targets (ren, crywolf, Nuwen) -- do you think that town tell should also count for volkan and ckd?

[Adel]

I assume you see crywolf and Nuwen as potential targets for lurkiness?

right up there with you, except that they've been replaced, and you haven't even been prodded. Reading your posts in isolation I'm astonished by how little you are typing in this game.

What's the point of that question? I pretty clearly applied the tell only to Ren.
The chances that all accountants are town are, after all, pretty slim.

I misread, and placed more emphasis on "all accountants are town" than you intended.

[Adel]

not played up to his level, and I take a lack of investment as a town tell for him.

[Adel]

Reading your posts in isolation I'm astonished by how little you are typing in this game.

Is the emphasis on "this" or "you"?

"you", but I can see that you are modding two games and playing in one other game, and you have twice as many posts in that other game than you have in this game, even though this game started first.

[Adel]

not played up to his level, and I take a lack of investment as a town tell for him.

interesting..

is there a game that set that level for you? does his involvement differ from a lurker?

for the record, this is the most active I have seen him in game....

open 97: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9774
and
mini 650: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9089

he was mafia in the first, and town in the second. I was town in the first, and mafia in the second. In both game I compiled an extensive met against him, and got him lynched in both game. I won in both games. I realize that both of those games are almost a year old, but I think I have some insight into his basic character: he greatly prefers being mafia and is bored and easily demoralized as town.

[Adel]

more importantly, why would he post

I was the first person to go after FL.

Except you entirely dropped it until Adel brought it up again

First of all, I don't recall dropping it in here.
Secondly, and Adel can vouch for me here, I haven't dropped it at all in our QT.

as scum when our QT thread show no such thing:


I can see a bored Sens-town who got himself into trouble by just going through the motions doing such a thing, but I expect Sens-scum wouldn't. He has played in two games with me, and I abused him and violently lynched him in both of those game. He wouldn't give me fodder to lynch him with -- he would be much more careful.

Note that I am

not

taking his lack of grabbing the tracker role as a town-tell for him. I don't think that he had enough time. By my count he made 7 posts on this site during the hours between when I offreed him the two roles, and when I snatched tracker. I think it is possible that he consulted with scumbuddies during those hours about which role to take (the tactically optimal of tracker, or the less optimal PGO to buy my confidence) -- so I'm reading that behavior as a net null-tell.

[Adel]

only have a min, so I'll respond just to what I see right here:

not played up to his level, and I take a lack of investment as a town tell for him.

Have you ever said this to him before? You raised met against him previously, so presumably this has come up as an issue before.

I can see a bored Sens-town who got himself into trouble by just going through the motions doing such a thing, but I expect Sens-scum wouldn't. He has played in two games with me, and I abused him and violently lynched him in both of those game. He wouldn't give me fodder to lynch him with -- he would be much more careful.

Was "Sens scum tends to be careful" (or something like that) part of your met?

no I haven't said that about him before, I've never been town when I thought he was town.
Sens-scum isn't careful exactly, I'd say ballsy gambits and hubris are typical from what I saw, but he isn't sloppy.

did you note the posts where I explicitly stated that I did not Sens lynched? I didn't, and I still don't. His play has been sloppy, and he has been making sub-optimal posts regardless of what his alignment is. I fail to see a scum-motivation for his sloppiness, and RL drama seems like a good explanation. I see him as a relatively un-invested townie popping in and typing some words, and not thinking carefully enough about the game: mislynch material.

Being sloppy is not exclusive to town. Whether or not you think he has been sloppy, he has been scummy. Why you continue to deny this I do not know. And FL was way more of mislynch material than Sens will ever be in this game. That did not stop you.

more importantly, why would he post

I was the first person to go after FL.

Except you entirely dropped it until Adel brought it up again

First of all, I don't recall dropping it in here.
Secondly, and Adel can vouch for me here, I haven't dropped it at all in our QT.

as scum when our QT thread show no such thing:
...
I can see a bored Sens-town who got himself into trouble by just going through the motions doing such a thing, but I expect Sens-scum wouldn't. He has played in two games with me, and I abused him and violently lynched him in both of those game. He wouldn't give me fodder to lynch him with -- he would be much more careful.

Once again, his sloppiness is not exclusive to being town. If he is having RL issues, then that doesn't automatically make him town. As for why he would post that, maybe he truly believed you would, and maybe he truly believed he was being consistent with his attack on FL. Just because you would expect him to be more careful as scum does not excuse his scummy play.

Also, Adel, both you and Sens agreed in your QT that Ren should be the lynch today. What made you change your mind?

you being the target of the scum kill.

Maybe I missing something, but how did it "blow the shit out" of the chance for a Ren lynch?

Ren is pretty close to being confirmed considering that the scum tried to kill me (if goat is telling the truth). Had the scum killed me, Ren would have been lynched since I was not voting for Ren. Thus scum would basically be killing me and losing one of their members at the same time.

I basically agree, but GR-scum would be the major exception.

[Adel]

why is figuring out the mechanics in play anti-town? with 14 living players, and most of them not having an especially solid grasp of the mechanics, I thought that was where my talents would best be directed.

I didn't actually imply that the act of figuring out the mechanics was anti-town, so this response seems vaguely like a straw-man. The crux of my problem with you at that point was your overall lack of player analysis in favor of neutral game mechanic analysis, something your response here fails to address. Its not that what you

were

doing was anti-town, its that what you

weren't

doing is scummy.

and what exactly was I not doing? Analyzing other players. Please. Read my damn posts. I've devoted a majority of words to theory and mechanics, but the minority that is opinion and players analysis is still far more than the median contribution of players in this game.

...I was trying to get some traction on him. I suspected that he was scum attempting to undermine my plan, or figure out what his team's reaction should be to it.

This doesn't really tackle the issue that your questions were extremely leading. It explains why you asked him anything on the subject in the first place, but does not explain what I actually found scummy about the questions. Again you seem to be dodging the main points I've brought up in favor of answering something related but easier to explain.

why was I asking him leading quations? to get some traction on him.

and it did get vollkan posting.

The fact that this apparently did get Voll posting does not excuse the fact that a lurkerhunt or even a lurkerprod-vote was not really appropriate at the time, and seemed to have functioned simply to allow you to ignore the major game movements happening at the time.

yep, you got me, I'm lurking in plain sight, & evading chances to get involved with this game. Bravo to you skill!

I think it is one of the stronger anti-Ren posts in this game, and I think it is interesting that you focused on the irony. Chainsaw defense, I think.

My comment wasn't really even concerned with the anti-Ren portion of the post. You've ignored (again) the actual point about what was scummy and responded to something only tangentially related. You said you didn't want to be a pathfinder for a mislynch. You later got in the driver's seat and super-aggressively forced a mislynch of FL through.

Things changed, and I decided that a lynch of FL was of paramount importance.

Accusations of a chainsaw-defense of Ren would only concern me if there was even a slight possibility of Ren being scum. After learning that scot (who was not on the Ren wagon) was the true target for yesterday's scumkill, we know that had the scumkill succeeded, Ren would have been autolynched. Therefore the safe assumption is that Ren is town. Trying to make me look scummy for "chainsaw defense" of Ren is therefore a moot point.

Ren+GR scum pair is the huge exception. Right now I think it is a low chance of being true, but I don't think it is a good idea to forget it. I'm still having trouble accepting that Ren is probably town. My intuition continues to scream at me that he is scum.

My theory was, and is, that because she has had serious RL drama with TSQ, and figured out that TSQ=Ren, she replaced out.

Thats a sad story. So why didn't you say it then? Why did you leave an open-ended question obviously intended to be filled in with the best scummy reason to drop a game a player could imagine?

I was trying to establish if he was tsq or not. That is what I was focused upon.

have you ever played with TSQ? Do you doubt that Ren is an alt? If Ren is TSQ will that help you determine Ren's alignment?

I have played with TSQ. I don't doubt Ren is an alt. I am confident Ren is not TSQ.

why isn't he tsq?

I understand Ren's positions in this game, that was enough for me to conclude that Ren is town from early on.

please explain this to me, because I reached exactly the opposite conclusion.

Ren is also now essentially cleared through coordinated night actions and the status of his bandwagon at the time of the Sera kill, so any further investigation into Ren's main identity becomes even more of a waste of time.

if you know whose alt he is please just tell me so that I will stop wasting brain cycles trying to figure it out.

why? The same though occurred to me. I really didn't think that the scum would've targeted scot, for fear of the busdriver, and I was trying to figure out why Serapham was targeted by scum, and saving Ren's bacon seemed like a plausible cause.

Yos never even brought up the possibility of Sera being involved in busdriver targets, that I can recall. He simply tried to argue that Sera was the intended target and therefore Ren should be lynched. It was a scummy position to take, made moreso by the busdriver reveal confirming Ren.

why is it scummy? scum killing a person on ren's wagon instead someone off of it totally killed ren's wagon. It seems like an ideal way to stop the wagon momentum to me.

how does Ren's reaction make him honest? More importantly, how do you equate Ren's corruption of the signal:noise ratio in this thread with a likely-town alignment?

1) Ren's reaction was the same as my initial reaction to scot's early post. Ren perhaps responded more strongly than I would have, but I completely understood the train of logic.
2) You are completely overblowing this whole "signal/noise" thing in regards to Ren. I think very little of Ren's posting has been noise. You seem to be grasping at any straw you can to keep Ren as a potential lynch.

he self voted, and then made spammy post after spammy post, almost none of which make sense to me from a generic townie playstyle p.o.v.

It seemed to me that Ren was scum, and Sens was taking heat as an alternative to a Ren-scum lynch.

At that point, the idea of a Ren lynch was much more in favor, and the two Sens votes were the minority voice fighting hard to make headway. Again, now that we have mechanical confirmation that Ren is town, this is even more telling.

I'm not trusting that mechanical information on Ren, to the extent that I'm even double guessing how confirmed GR is.
As for the Sens wagon, I could tell how the momemtum was shifting, and that Sens was going to be the lynch for the day.

did you note the posts where I explicitly stated that I did not Sens lynched? I didn't, and I still don't. His play has been sloppy, and he has been making sub-optimal posts regardless of what his alignment is. I fail to see a scum-motivation for his sloppiness, and RL drama seems like a good explanation. I see him as a relatively un-invested townie popping in and typing some words, and not thinking carefully enough about the game: mislynch material.

Saving someone you have a "sloppy townie" read on by driving a quicklynch on another (town) player seems... sub-optimal to say the least.

There was a good tactical reason to lynch FL, and I was transparent about everything!

which post number should FL-scum have swapped scot out by? At which post number should we have concluded that FL was town?

Post 522

GTFO with 522. It was far from clear that FL would actually be lynched at that point, and he only had two votes at the time. What scum have you ever seen out himself with only two votes in such a dramatic fashion?

why is my name in parenthesis?

I'm still unsure about the likelihood of you and Sens being scumpartners. I'm virtually positive one of you is scum. After this post, it seems much more likely that you're the scum.

I look forward to seeing your case against me

my stated reason for the gambit was "to see what your response time was, and if anyone else would follow my vote" -- I wanted to poke vollkan since he was being quiet, and I am weary of lazy townies votes without thinking, especially during day 1 -- it makes later voting analysis much harder.

If I wanted to start a lurker hunt, I would've picked a legitimate lurker.

This still ignores my main point - addressing lurkers at all is simply a way to ignore the real meat of the discussion going on around you.

what was this "meat" at the time that I was ignoring?

----

Adel's failure to grasp that Ren is now p much confirmed is a major red flag. She's been 100% on top of every other mechanical nuance in this game, yet ignores this one and continues pushing the "whose alt are you" and "signal/noise ratio" non-arguments against him.

I've been flipflopping on what I think his alignment is. It seems to me that his play has been scummy, and too many assumption are necessary for him to be confirmed town.

Adel's spectacularly over-the-top defense of Sens makes sense only if she truly knows his alignment. If she's scum and he's scum, the reasons are obvious. If she's scum and he's town (which is where I'm now beginning to lean) then it scores her some easy points and could mean a trusting, uninvested townie buddy who she can communicate secretly with for the duration of the game and very probably direct.

I tried to direct him to vote for FL, but he didn't.
I get players who I think are scum lynched, and I try to keep players who I think are town alive. I think Sens is town, and I've explained why.

Adel's indirect answers to almost all of the points I raised regarding her is very, very strawman.

If other players think I am being intentionally evasive, please let me know. Sometimes I don't read the question the way the writer intends, and I think it is rather more useful to the town to rephrase a question or at least restate it if my first response isn't adequate.

~~
Is it typical of OGML-town to jump to conclusions like this?

fuck, that took far too long.

[Adel]

Creative teams: please check our thread.

[Adel]

"(27d)Immediate actions' public results (if any), most notably kills will be posted between 0 and 24 hours of me opening the PM, to avoid Time Zone differences breaking the game. "

Time of kill (with GMT+5 profile setting): Thu Jul 16, 2009 10:33 am
Time of Ren's self vote: Thu Jul 16, 2009 5:18 am

~ a 5.5 hour difference.

"Morning subphase ends on July 13, 12PM EST, and any actions submitted before then resolve at that time simultaneously."

Ren, GR, and vollkan all post between 4:57 am and 5:18 am on Jul 16, and scot and Budja post between Ren's 5:18 self vote and the 10:33 am deathscene.

I can't rule out that Ren's self-vote was a ruse (well, it was obviously a ruse) but part of the same ruse as the kill, designed to "clear" him.

[Adel]

and it doesn't help that I never believed for a moment that this post was sincere:

Interesting development.

I thought I was at L-1. That was the incorrect count I was posting. It's not impossible that I unintentionally mislead the scum into thinking I was at L-1. If the scum thought as much, I'd be dead, too, immediately after Seraphim died. Maybe they thought they'd be rid of two account executives in one fell swoop.

Had I counted properly, and died along with Seraphim, we'd have:

vollkan - Head of Account Services
crywolf20084 - Account Executive
Nuwen - Account Executive
curiouskarmadog - Account Executive

There wouldn't be much point in striving to be one scum account executive with 3 townies. But if two of the above players are scum, I definitely see an advantage.

I'm not sure I thought this through fully, but it's a start.

unvote

I think it is a misdirection, like, "OMG guys, why didn't I die" -- it rings false to me.

[Adel]

@GR: I don't have time right now to reply, sorry. I'll get to it tomorrow or the next day.

Case against Adel coming up, courtesy of CKD and OGML, two players whom I very strongly believe to be town.

I am fascinated by the fact you think they are town. Please tell us why you've reached that conclusion.

[Adel]

care to provide specific examples?

[Adel]

I don't have much time but

The more they try to discredit Ren, the more they look like scum.

vote: Ren Hoek

[Adel]

And what's worse is it seems like you're not actually making your cases in the thread; I am getting the impression you seem to be using the accounting quicktopic to manipulate people into agreeing with you, instead of actually making your arguments in thread where people could respond to them.

actually, I think that carrying on conversations in as many threads as possible is a good thing for the town.

[Adel]

I don't have much time but

The more they try to discredit Ren, the more they look like scum.

vote: Ren Hoek

So...you're trying to look like scum?

Or does OGML attacking you somehow make a Ren vote more viable?

OGML claiming that suspicion of Ren being scum is a scumtell is bullshit.

Ren is the most probable scum.

---------------------

Going to review the Adel case in less of a skimmed form. I will say that I think the point about Adel tracking me despite not expressing suspicion of me publicly is weak. If I were scum, I would be one of the better choices to submit a night kill simply because I was unsuspected.

IIRC I did mention you as one of my three primesuspects early in my QT with Sens.

[Adel]

I understood Adel’s FL plan. Though I felt it was hugely flawed. It was tactically correct if done quickly by design, but at any time FLscum could have screwed us. Adel had a case against FL before her strategic point….so did Sens. Neither point stuck. It feels like you exploited that strategic point to push your agenda, which was to get FL lynched. Defending Sens as town falls into line with that agenda.

trying to get FL lynched without pointing out to FL-scum how he could screw us was tricky. Trying to get it done occupied most of my brain cycles.

Finally I had to spell it all out to get it done. I identified a 6 hour window when FL is almost never online, and posted my detailed post at the begininng of that window.

I'm pretty demoralized by some out of game events right now, and how much time I've wasted on this game. After not getting lynched for a year, I was lynched early in my last two games, and now I think that I'm also going to get lynched early in this game. Fuck mafia.

[Adel]

I don't have much time but

The more they try to discredit Ren, the more they look like scum.

vote: Ren Hoek

So...you're trying to look like scum?

Or does OGML attacking you somehow make a Ren vote more viable?

OGML claiming that suspicion of Ren being scum is a scumtell is bullshit.

How exactly is that a point against Ren though? Wouldn't that be a point against OGML? I'm not really getting your vote right now.

Agreed. I don't see how OGML prompted the Ren vote at all.

Ren wasn't on your list of 6 scum suspects in your post a while back. Why is he the most probable scum?

the fucker is scummy. Look at his posts both in isolation and in context. He evades questions, makes spammy posts, self votes, refuses to provide specific cases, is following ckd and OGML, the fucker is scum. My "wide net" post excluded him, but I can't swallow the assumptions necessary to consider him cleared. Almost every post he makes leaves me with that "ick" scum feeling.

[Adel]

he is the player I think is most likely to be scum. He is the player I have the most scum-tells from. My estimation of his % chance of being scum is higher than my estimation of each other player's % chance of being scum. Why?

the fucker is scummy. Look at his posts both in isolation and in context. He evades questions, makes spammy posts, self votes, refuses to provide specific cases, is following ckd and OGML, the fucker is scum. My "wide net" post excluded him, but I can't swallow the assumptions necessary to consider him cleared. Almost every post he makes leaves me with that "ick" scum feeling.

[Adel]

Also, Sens, can you weigh in?

call me erratic, but I feel like a tool. Sens is avoiding this game, the Creative team thread, and our personal QT thread. Fuck him.

unvote, vote:Sensfan

[Adel]

You still haven't answered my question.

I don't have much time but

The more they try to discredit Ren, the more they look like scum.

vote: Ren Hoek

So...you're trying to look like scum?

Or does OGML attacking you somehow make a Ren vote more viable?

OGML claiming that suspicion of Ren being scum is a scumtell is bullshit.

How exactly is that a point against Ren though? Wouldn't that be a point against OGML?

I'm not really getting your vote right now.

it wasn't a point against either, it was me flipping the bird to the group-think that seems to be taking hold here.

[Adel]

If this outburst is real, fine. Replace out of this game right fucking now and let someone whose point of view isn't "Fuck Mafia" play and enjoy themselves. And get fucked while you're at it.

ok. bye.

[Adel]

Hey, I can use the word fuck too. Ready?

Fuck Adel's fake ass meltdown. Oh my god, you've gotten lynched in games? This if fucking mafia. Since you're using your laudable skill as the basis for your sudden emotional tirade, I know that you know appeals to emotion are nothing more than worthless deflections.

Explosive emotional meltdowns do not impress coming from a player who strives to present himself as the most careful and logical player on the entire site. You can come down off of your pedestal, Professor Mafia, and join the rest of the mortal MafiaScum universe in getting lynched when you get caught.

If this outburst is real, fine. Replace out of this game right fucking now and let someone whose point of view isn't "Fuck Mafia" play and enjoy themselves. And get fucked while you're at it.

[Adel]

Woo.

Ahem...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

Really good game Korts. The setup was even more enjoyable than normal Deep South and I think the balance was right; had Goat not been canonised so early on, it could very easily have gone in town's favour.

[Adel]

What did you think of the game? Did you like the concept? Did you like the execution? Did the method of role distribution make it easier or harder on town or scum? Did the overlapping QT neighbourhoods influence the game in any big way? Were there any fuckups on my part? Was the 4:10 ratio too much in favour of the scum?

I liked the setup and concept, but I think the 4:10 balance was off. My feeling is that if you ran this a dozen times, the town would probably only win ~20% of the time.

Did the scum have their own QT?

Also, what did you think of the daily ability options? Were they too swingy, were the breaking strategies very obvious?

I don't think the breaking tactics were too obvious, and I don't think that the setup wasn't terribly swingy. There were a lot of checks and balances.

[Adel]

Huh? My post has no text in it.

Adel copied it (thanks), but I'll try again:
Woo.

Ahem...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

Really good game Korts. The setup was even more enjoyable than normal Deep South and I think the balance was right; had Goat not been canonised so early on, it could very easily have gone in town's favour.

delete the space between "Hubris" and "[/url]"

~~~

I've reread page 30 many times, the immediate pages leading up to page 30 several times, and the entire game up to that point a few times.
Each time it leaves me very frustrated.

I won't be playing mafia again any time soon.

[Adel]

also, sorry for replacing out. This must've been a fun scum team to be a part of.

[Adel]

Thanks again Adel.

Just to test the URL once more: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubris

so my posting that link, you are accusing me of being guilty of hubris, or what? I'm not very clear on what you are attempting to communicate.

[Adel]

"mission accomplished" is pretty awesome.

[Adel]

The only exception really, and I don't mean this offensively, was Sens simply because of the severe lurking making him an easy lynch.

I thought that Ren self-voting to lynch -1 was a really bad move. Even though it didn't result in his lynch, it was a distraction and make it harder for other players to focus on scumtells that might actually be accurate.

I currently think that Ren = ABR.

[Adel]

Ren Hoek is DGB

damnit, you are right. I really wish I would've known that while I was playing. Trying to lynch DGB on day 1 is a serious scumtell.