Mafia 70: Traditional - Game over!

[Korejora]

Holy forty-six page starting day, Batman. Also, Batman, while I have your attention, HOLY QUOTE WARS.

So, I wrote notes on players while I was going through the thread, and while I'm too tired to put them together as coherently as I'd like, you guys deserve a post from me, seeing as how I replaced like... time... ago. Did I mention I was tired? Okay, here they are in order of frontpage appearance.

1) Korejora (replacing Aimee) - Aimee never really talked, except like one PBP. Yeahhh. This gives me the good fortune of not having to deal with people thinking I am protown and buddying up, cause otherwise I'd get all mushy and not want to vote them!
2) Simenon - I don't know what to bring up about this guy besides reviving the mason discussion, which I don't think is appropriate at this point. 3/5 of the masons are out and I think they have a better idea what's going on than we do anyway, what with the nighttalking. And hey, you don't call me Kore at all.
5) JDodge (replacing ckillor) - Kind of annoying and abrasive, but that's WIFOM. Being that he's unhelpful, he gets no brownie points.
6) Ether (replacing Honary Hitchhiker) - Ether kind of bothers me in that she attacked townies on multiple occasions: first White (2, 3), and Setael, then Yamahako, then Aimee (although that's only helpful from my perspective). She was on the TS wagon, IIRC, but Ether strikes me as cunning enough to distance when things don't look good. Maybe she just jumps around a lot. I think I would vote for her.
7) Sir Tornado - Another null check; he seemed to blend in with the general ideas a lot, so he didn't really stand out... which I guess could be considered a scum play, sneaking amongst the ranks. If you said anything you totally felt was the less-trodden path, feel free to bash me over the head with it till I realize you are a unique snowflake.
8) Mastermind of Sin - I can roll with this guy. While he seemed abrasive too at first, he had a point with ZONEACE, and he seems to have helped the town out a fair bit. He seems to trust his gut and I think I can too. Moreover, Strudel tried to lynch him, and Strudel didn't seem like she was pulling something clever like bussing at the time. And you're damn

right

that cat is cuter.
10) Skruffs (replacing Lemming1607) - I figure he's town; seems most confirmed at the moment. I don't think Lemming was clever enough to gambit cop (though saying that makes me feel like a condescending ass). Last night he was probably both some poor killing bastard's and Erg0's target, and is going to end up dead tonight, as he too predicts. I would not vote for him.
11) ZONEACE -

Really

annoying and abrasive, and instead of explaining anything he just says I AM OBVIOUSLY TOWN, YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY SCUM. I'm pretty sure this POV has been thoroughly expressed before me, though, and it's still kind of useless. I am of the opinion that he got the doctor killed, which makes me ponder whether it was on purpose or not.
13) Battle Mage (replacing The Venerable Zorg) - This guy just seems to be repeating long-tired arguments, and kind of looks like he's trying to buddy up to, like, everyone. Of course, he hasn't read the entire thread, apparently, so I guess it's fair for him to come to those conclusions thus far. But given that, his posts are just taking up space. If he keeps posting with the confidence that he should vote, even based on limited information, not having read the thread will cease to be a justification. (Did that make sense to anyone besides me? Sometimes I ramble when I'm tired.) I would vote for him, for sure.
15) Setael II (replacing Flare) - Flare got a point or two for being wagoned by scum day one, I guess, but it wasn't as big as with MOS and he didn't give a lot of other reads. Still, I disagree with the insinuations of Flare being mafia... mostly because I'm not 100% what they even are. Lurking? Other than that - with regards to Setael II - I'm not sure, as the argument over the past few pages made me kind of dizzy. I don't really like this bandwagon, though.
16) KaleiÐoscøpe - Tempted to say he's scummy for not contributing, but that got Yamahako killed... though, IMHO, Yama did more than him so far.
17) Elmo (replacing Beastly) - ?????? no idea. I agree with his latest post, I think, but I haven't seen him post much. Beastly was kind of wishy-washy, but then I think he posted mostly in day one, and then no one has information, so it makes sense.
18) Niv - Umm, I think I believe he's a protown mason. Other than that mostly the same as IH.
21) Bookitty (replacing booboodafool, replacing Celtic18) - Seems protown to me. I don't like this wagon, either. She's very open with her thoughts and posts, she was on the scum lynch, and she refuted the townie lynches with the exception of the Yamahako slip-up, which a lot of people seem to have been on. If she's scum... well... with enemies like these, who needs friends?

P.S.: Random question I have: Why did White get killed night one? He seemed an easy lynch target, not something to waste a night on. There're two killing groups, right? Probably both scum in a game this big?

P.P.S.: I am going to suffer from the dreaded limited access this week, because my family demands that I visit them over the winter break. The situation should be remedied by the 28th or so, whereupon I will be offering my services in-thread once more. That said, I'm not voting because I don't want to leave it unattended while I'm gone. If I

were

to vote, it would be on Battle Mage, though. So, like, pretend I'm voting him or something.

[Korejora]

That's WIFOM, unfortunately. Was Bookitty town who nailed alignment, or scum earning brownie points? What I'm saying is that by the nature of her posting as I read through, I'm more inclined to believe the former. One of the reasons is that I felt I had come to similar conclusions before I read her arguments, showing what she said could have arised from similar information, i.e. only the thread as town can see it.

I'm posting on a cell phone, so I can't reread the thread, and I don't remember specifically who I was referring to in my notes off the top of my head. Sorry.

For the record, the votecount looks accurate to me.

[Korejora]

I didn't ignore your question. I said that I couldn't recall which townie(s) you defended, and that I couldn't recheck because I'm using a cell phone. Come Friday, I should be able to be more specific. Who you defended isn't all that important, though, so much as the fact that I found myself coming up with similar ideas, as I said, which to me implies the use of similar information. If you skip over that part of my point, then yeah, it sure is WIFOM.

As for Ether, what concerned me wasn't so much that she targeted town - obviously you can't expect a townsperson, if she is one, to know who is town or not. It seemed to me that she was just targetting a lot of people, jumping between targets. IMHO, she picked easy targets, too. White was under fire at the time, I'm pretty sure a few people were after Setael, and I'm completely sure Yamahoko was being attacked.

Skruffs, you're just my best guess as the target of the kill. You were the most (even if not totally) confirmed at the end of the day, which, in my experience, is the traditional target of the nightkill. Bookitty explained very well how you seem protown.

For the doctor thing, ZONEACE kept arguing with the doctor about directing the night protection. As the argument went on, Erg0 wouldn't stop talking about the not-even-confirmed-to-exist doctor. That's not directly ZONEACE's fault, but he definitely bitched enough about the doctor that I think many people would react to it, and it's not hard for scum to put two and two together.

[Korejora]

And while we're bitching about masons voting each other, why is Niv on the wagon too? Having just confirmed she's a mason, do you guys BOTH think she's the scum implied in your roles? O_o

[Korejora]

I'm not really sure how to respond to people saying I am "likely the SK" or referring to me as "someone I think is scum". Is there, like, a

reason

I'm the SK? Even if it's just the fact that I'm not as good a logician as you, which

clearly

influenced the mod's decision on how to assign the randomly assigned role to my predecessor? If you guys are still pretending that I was ignoring someone, then I guess there's not a lot I can do to convince you that you're wrong.

Now that I'm not using a cell phone to post, LIKE I SAID I WAS BEFORE, I can review the thread and use the quote feature, LIKE I COULDN'T BEFORE, and help you guys with the issues raised.

Mastermind of Sin: "I can roll with this guy...He seems to trust his gut and I think I can too." Mastermind of Sin is voting for me. You said you didn't think you would. Do you trust his gut, or not?

. . .

Because as I read it, it seems like you're arguing that Ether might be scum because she went after town, a very obvious thing for scum to do, but that she's "cunning" enough to distance well. At the same time, you make this weird "defense" of me which involves me refuting townie lynches, which is something scum would be just as likely to do, and something I didn't do at all to my knowledge. Both arguments just look manufactured to me.

In the first place, White and Setael were nightkilled. They weren't lynched. So your argument against Ether goes to WIFOM about the nightkills. I was in part responsible for the mislynch of Yamahako, unfortunately. I can make a big justification about how I was trying to give Setael a chance to explain Flare's actions, but in the end I was just wrong and I take responsibility for that.

So your argument of Ether looks to me to be one you could easily disavow if she were to come up town, nearly setting up a straw man as an excuse for whatever you choose to do later. Meanwhile, your argument for me seems to be contingent on my "refuting townie lynches" which, while I'd love to take credit for that, I have not done and you haven't provided any evidence for. You ignored my question. Perhaps you missed it.

On MoS: No, I guess I don't agree with him that Bookitty is scum, but I said I thought he was trustable, not that I'd blindly follow him. Not only am I not

100%

convinced he's town, town can be wrong. Town's opinion demands more consideration because their opinion is

honest

, so you

can

trust it; that doesn't mean it's accurate. I have considered MoS' opinion of Bookitty, and I disagree.

On Ether: White and Setael being nightkilled just means she didn't

succeed

at getting them lynched. And everyone makes mistakes; I just think Ether picked her fights in a scummy way. It's not something I'd kill her for if she were at -1, but I still think it puts her higher up on the list than others. I'm sorry if you don't like how wishy-washy it is, but I had just joined the game - I

have

just joined the game, having been away for a lot of the time I was in it - and I don't have as much of a handle on the situation as you do.

On Bookitty herself: I'd initially thought that Bookitty had defended White, but now I see that that's not only incorrect, it's impossible. Oops. ¯\(°_o)/¯ I assume I mistook her for someone else. That changes little, as what convinced me wasn't

what

she was arguing, so much as the consistency of the content with my conclusions, implying similar bases,

as I have said several times

.

I do hop around as a part of my playstyle. As for hopping

bandwagons

--only White's. I was the only person attacking Setael1 at the time, and I

started

the fatal Yamahako- and Zeppowagons with no initial support from other people. I

make

my targets easy.

I'm too lazy to look thoroughly right now, but I think there's a double-standard in this attack. (JDodge and MoS spring to mind immediately, although MoS is town.)

I think Bookitty's questions to you (MoS's gut, Bookitty has not in fact refuted town lynches) which you ignored are solid points which you need to respond to.

You can't just magically discount White, and Setael was already under scrutiny because of her predecessor, hmrox. It's true that you were the first on the Yamahako wagon, but Yamahako was an easy target too, because people already disliked him for his "new playstyle", and were bound to hound him for it.

I'm not saying other people didn't hop bandwagons, but as I said, I couldn't figure out Jdodge, and MoS looked town enough that that didn't cause a complete reversal of my opinion.

And I repeat that I DID NOT IGNORE BOOKITTY. I have now had a chance to address her problems, so I hope you're okay with that now.


I maintain my pseudovote on Battle Mage, except now that I'm back on stable access so as to babysit it,

vote: Battle Mage

.

[Korejora]

Okay, am I the only one that thinks that Battle Mage's post is lacking in support and explanation? It kind of looks like he's either namecalling or complaining about things that seem right, at least to me. A few bits near the end that jumped at me:

Bookitty claims Mason. Strange that this hadn’t been revealed sooner, with so many people who could potentially confirm it.

I am pretty sure more masons being outed was

not

popular with the ladies today.

By post 1881 I’ve discovered an awesome time saving device. Rather than scrolling up long posts to find out whether they were written by Setael, its actually possible to read a sentence or two, spot the horrific attempt at logic, and discover that it was a post of hers.

Ouch? Do you want to point out where she gave contradictory or invalid arguments, instead of just saying you think she sucks, or whatever that was supposed to mean?

KJ continues to hint at suspecting me, but still doesn’t validate it with an actual vote.

Actually, I voted you

in that post

. And I explained why I wasn't voting anyone before that post; I'm sorry if my reason just wasn't

good enough

for you.


@Skruffs:

Part of it was two people (at least), Setael and MOS's, claiming of "The Scum Mason", which to me is not a legitimate aspect of this game yet. First, we don't know that there is a scum mason or not - so taking that as an assumption and working off of it leads to false conclusions.

Secondly, we don't know that there would be only one scum mason, if there are any. There could be two, or more, or two from two different scum groups, etc. One might also be a cult recruiter (There is no evidence of a cult recruitor, I am simply pointing out an option).

I thought we were reasonably sure that there was a scum mason, because the masons were told in their job description that one of them was possibly treacherous. Did that source suggest there could be untrustworthies among them, or just that

one

of them could be untrustworthy? (Masons, answer this at your leisure. It's up to you if you don't think the scum knowing is worth the town knowing.) For cult, I agree with Sir T - seems unlikely, but consider it considered.

Yeah... I don't see why the mafia would hunt masons. The mafia can be pretty sure the masons lack power roles, as Skruffs said, and why would they risk killing what could only be beneficial to them? Even if they have no idea who the 'untrustworthy' mason is, and don't know if it's a traitor on their team or not, why would they care? If it's a serial killer, a lyncher, an

anything

, it's going to be antitown and thus helping them along in killing town. If it's antimafia, too, they can get rid of it once there are less people and it's as much of a threat to them as it is to us. And no matter what it is, they can't be sure it's

not

a traitor, so I don't think they would risk killing their own teammate when they could just pick off people that are a lot more likely to be town.

Another thing is: I don't know who the doc protected last night, but it's not unreasonable to think that he protected the only claimed power role still alive in the game, correct?

That's primarily why I thought you were the target for the kill. The possibilities I see are:
(a) Erg0's argument with ZONEACE made it

so

obvious that he's the doctor that both killing groups went for him. (Both killing groups are scum, then.)
(b) One killing group killed Erg0 and the other chose not to kill. (The one not killing may be a vigilante, in this case.)
(c) One killing group killed Erg0 and the other tried to kill you, but was foiled by Erg0.
There are other possibilities, too, like that the doctor and the other kill hit the same target but that target

wasn't

you, but most of them seem

way

less likely to me.


@Sir T: Cops don't get a guilty on serial killers? I've never heard of that before. I've only known cops to get false negatives on godfathers, and serial killers get immunity to nightkills. Either way, I kind of doubt the scum know which mason is 'untrustworthy', and I

seriously

doubt they can communicate with the scum mason.

[quote="Sir T" (1977)"](btw, I think I was the person who said I was pretty sure it was a vig)[/quote]
You mean in 1897? I don't really remember a lot of discussion about vigilantes.

[Korejora]

Lol in case you havent read the game yet, i think its wise to remind you that we've already had mason claims in the game before today. Simenon and Niv to name a couple.

Yes, yes, I get it, you think that because some of the masons had claimed that the rest of the masons should have also claimed. I just think you're wrong.

The less the scum knows, the better, so unless there's a better reason for one of the masons to claim, such as what Bookitty had, then IMHO, the masons should have stayed quiet, as they did. Well, besides the Ether issue. You notice how no one liked that? Maybe you thought it was the right play, since you seem to think the masons should have come out a lot sooner.

Lol dont get upset with me. If i recall, you neglected to make a legitimate vote (and by legitimate, i mean a vote that actually counts towards the votecount.) Underlining does not a good vote make.

Are you just making false assumptions to try and make me look bad? I find lying about the obvious to not be such an effective strategy, personally. Or maybe you just don't read votecounts. No wait, the mod must be lying... yeah, that's it.

I am now torn. If I was wrong about Bookitty and she is a town mason, it makes sense for Simenon now to change his vote to MoS, since if Boo comes up town, the odds become higher that Simenon is the scum mason. Plus, he's not making sense to me. The Niv suspicion being his first reason to move off Bookitty, and then instead of going for Niv he votes MoS. Again could be because any mason who comes up town narrows it down. Plus he outed Ether regardless of what he says.

The logic in the quote above is atrocious beyond words. Capish?

No, sorry, I don't understand how a town mason turning up doesn't narrow down the scum mason possibilities, or how the reasons she thinks Simenon outed Ether are wrong. Maybe you could help me out, here. I'm obviously logically handicapped.

I hope this solves any problems you were having with my continued analysis.

Let's keep going, shall we?

Niv confirms, and Setael makes an obviously misleading post.

1856 was an obviously misleading post? :/ I thought she had a point. Masons voting each other seemed odd at the time.

I don’t think Skruffs conclusion in post 1860 is very realistic.

1860: Skruffs thought that if the second kill had been attempted on him, then it probably wasn't a vigilante. He is the most protown at the moment, and the only claimed power role, so that seems pretty realistic to me.


I really don't feel that you're backing up anything you say, Battle Mage. Not even slightly.

[Korejora]

What is spin doctoring?

@T - I've only ever seen cops investigate serial killers as guilty. This is the first I've heard of them not. Most of my experience isn't on MS, though, so I don't know how it's usually done here.

[Korejora]

Kore: What do you make of BM's spin doctoring against Erg0 et al?

I think that only scum would be this misleading, and we should throw him overboard.

I found a great time-saver: don't bother to read a post two miles long when you spot the horrific attempts at logic and realize it was written by Battle Mage.

[Korejora]

Behaviour which I

accused

you of? Meaning, you don't think you actually did it? Despite that I quoted you pretty much WORD FOR WORD?

Yeah, okay. I apologize. It was rude of me to stop a hopelessly tiring and futile quote war. I'll pick it up again. Not that we'll make any real progress, nor will I likely last long before giving up again, but you're way too provocative and I'm way too irritated, so here we go.

No you clearly dont get it, because thats not what i said atall. I'm saying that as Simenon and Niv had ALREADY claimed, they could easily have confirmed Bookitty's masonhood, especially as they were voting for her!

My bad; you just wanted

one

of the masons to claim early for no good reason. Okay.

Lol dont be so over-defensive. Guess what, as far as i'm aware, votes usually only count when you put them in bold. If it makes you happier, i'll go and check whether the Mod made an exemption for you, but regardless, from my perspective, and i suspect the perspective of the majority, your vote was not really legitimate. Have i drawn any false conclusions from that? Erm, nope. So before you accuse me of setting you up or something similar, you really ought to get some idea of context. Why we are even discussing this is beyond me...

Yes, you did draw a false conclusion, due to making a false assumption, as I said. Let me spell it out to you with a syllogism.
Premise 1: No vote that is underlined shall be counted.
Premise 2: Korejora's vote was underlined.
Conclusion: Korejora's vote was not counted.
This conclusion is perfectly

valid

, yes, but it's still false, since premise 1 rests on the false assumption that the mod wouldn't count it. The assumption would have been acceptable before there was a votecount, but since you assumed it after there was evidence that the assumption was false, you're just plain wrong.
We're discussing this because you appear to be either (1) an idiot misrepresenting the truth because you're too lazy to check the the easily available proof, or (2) scum lying about things to grossly distract the town.

Do you think that the fact that Simenon and Niv are voting for Bookitty means that 1 side must be anti-town?
Equally do you think that it is reasonable to suppose that Simenon would choose to run up a large Bandwagon on Bookitty, if he DIDNT WANT BOOKITTY LYNCHED, because it would make it more likely that he was an anti-town mason?

Why Simenon wagoned is a point of dispute right now. How should I know the answer to that?
I don't necessarily think that one side or the other are scum, but as far as I know, Setael believes Ether to be town, so to her, one of those three must be scum. There's nothing wrong with that.

Not really, because if masons arent confirmed town, you keep an eye on them as much as, if not MORE THAN anyone else.

It seemed to me at that time that they had reasons we didn't know about to believe their masonbuddy is really a scumbuddy. There is nothing misleading about that post in the context of when it happened.

Your entire paragraph about serial killers is completely irrelevant. But, you know, instead of wasting time telling me what I already know (which you would be able to find out because I listed the possibilities I had considered), you could just say that you were mistaken in talking about Skruffs' conclusion that there was a vig when you were actually referring to his assumption that the second kill was on him. I don't think anyone would hold it against you.

[Korejora]

Good reason Number 1: We wouldnt waste everyone's fucking time gradually building up a wagon which will inevitable be shaken by the fact that it is on a mason, when in fact, a claim could have come much sooner.
Think before you speak pl0x.

Why would it inevitably be shaken by a mason claim? Wasn't it you who said we should "keep an eye on the masons as much, if not MORE THAN anyone else"? Masons are only confirmed as masons, not town. If Simenon hadn't changed his vote, Bookitty may very well have been lynched, regardless of the claim. It was discussion on how the scum would handle the masons that eventually brought us to the idea that we shouldn't lynch them, not the simple fact of masonhood itself.

I also still don't see why the wagon was useless in terms of information. Even if don't know Bookitty's alignment, we've seen a lot of people's reactions to the wagon, which could be useful later.

According to THE RULES, votes need to be bold to be counted. Whether or not Patrick chose to make an exception on the premise that he suspected you actually intended to make a vote, is irrelevant. The fact was, your vote was not valid, and from your perspective at least, it ought not to have been counted. Hence i drew my conclusion from that fact.

According to the rules, the votes have to be in the form "vote: person". I do not see the word "bold" there, and to me, the fact that the sample is bolded means you are supposed to use BBcode, so that your vote stands out enough for the mod to find it more easily. So from my perspective, it ought to have been counted. And the fact that Patrick counted my vote is VERY relevant, since that was your point:

(and by legitimate, i mean a vote that actually counts towards the votecount.)

See what i mean about your attitude? Have you ever come across the word 'tact' before?

The pot calls the kettle black!

By post 1881 I’ve discovered an awesome time saving device. Rather than scrolling up long posts to find out whether they were written by Setael, its actually possible to read a sentence or two, spot the horrific attempt at logic, and discover that it was a post of hers.

Lol in case you havent read the game yet

Lol dont get upset with me.

The logic in the quote above is atrocious beyond words. Capish?

Why we are even discussing this is beyond me...

The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one. An easy way to explain the problem is by seeing whether you draw the same conclusion as Setael.

Are you trying to flirt with me? If so, try and work on your bedside manner.

fucking

Think before you speak pl0x.

Have you ever come across the word 'tact' before?

Dont be pedantic.

Stop being a hypocrite, and lead by example if you want me to play nice.

I suggest you look it up, because all im getting from you atm is extreme OMGUSsy vibes, which at best are clouding a townies judgement, and at worst, forcing a scum onto the defensive in order to save face.

"OMGUSsy vibes"? Battle Mage, I voted you, presented a case against you, and then you dodged around it and voted me back when I didn't stand for it. If anyone is pulling an OMGUS, it can only be you.

Thats not the impression i got. I thought Setael was suggesting that the affiliation of 1 was directly linked to the affiliation of the others. It seems to be you who is twisting Setael's words here, in order to make her seem more able. As for the reason behind Simenon's votes, if you can make a conclusion one way, you can at least do him the justice of explaining yourself in the face of a logical blockade to the contrary. In laymens terms: "you said you agree with Setael, now when asked to back it up, you choose not to".

When did I ever say I agreed with Setael? I never thought Ether was town, so I had nowhere near Setael's conviction that the other three masons were our choices. I am not twisting Setael's words, to my knowledge, but if Setael would like to come in and tell me that that's not what she meant, then I offer all due apologies.

I recall both were in the same post. Dont be pedantic. I dont think there is a Vig, if anyone reads this...

Yes, both were in the same post, which is what makes your saying "conclusion" important.

I don’t think Skruffs conclusion in post 1860 is very realistic.

Skruffs'

assumption

in that post was that he was the target for the kill. His

conclusion

was therefore, reasonably, that it wasn't vigilante.

Normally I wouldn't care, but your word choice was important here, since you didn't actually address anything in your analysis post, and just said "this is bad and this is good". Had you actually taken his post and explained the problem you had, then it wouldn't matter, because I would have actually known what you were referring to in the first place.

Not really, because if masons arent confirmed town, you keep an eye on them as much as, if not MORE THAN anyone else.

It seemed to me at that time that they had reasons we didn't know about to believe their masonbuddy is really a scumbuddy. There is nothing misleading about that post in the context of when it happened.

Your entire paragraph about serial killers is completely irrelevant. But, you know, instead of wasting time telling me what I already know (which you would be able to find out because I listed the possibilities I had considered), you could just say that you were mistaken in talking about Skruffs' conclusion that there was a vig when you were actually referring to his assumption that the second kill was on him. I don't think anyone would hold it against you.

I recall both were in the same post. Dont be pedantic. I dont think there is a Vig, if anyone reads this...

I like how you snuck out of the entire debate about Setael's "misleading" post because I didn't separate it from the next issue with a quote. Slick. I've seperated everything by four line breaks, now, so you can continue not actually reading the issues and still be able to tell them apart.

[Korejora]

...or that the mason traitor is not affiliated with the mafia.

I think we discussed that already. The possibilities I remember were:
- Miller
- Lyncher
- Survivor
- Serial killer
- Mafia traitor

...excluding the idea of a straight-up mafia member, which would seem unfair. Only one of these is actually affiliated with the mafia, although I would argue that it's a lot more likely than most of the others.

I personally don't think it's a miller, since a miller is protown and would probably have tried to prevent some of this confusion, even if without claiming outright. As far as I can tell, all of the masons have aggressively assumed there was a scum mason, whereas the miller wouldn't, unless they believe there's a scum mason

as well as

themselves. Plus, the cop is already easily compromised by the roleblocker, which I'd agree with Ether makes another mechanic messing him up - such as a miller - less viable.

I don't know about lyncher and survivor. If Bookitty's right that none of the masons have focused on anyone, then it's either not a lyncher or a very careful lyncher. A survivor I think would have claimed by now; the sooner a survivor is outed, the easier it is for them to survive, as long as no one thinks they are scum using the survivor claim as an out.

If we believe there is a vigilante, we can be reasonably sure it's not a serial killer. I'm not sure about whether there's a vigilante, so that option's still high up to me. As for the mafia traitor, I have no reason to believe it's thus far not one of those, so I think those two - mafia traitor or serial killer - are the most likely.

[Korejora]

EBWOP - Does that clear up the mason issue, MoS? Since AFAIK we're not going to lynch the masons, we're just going to be speculating, and I think we have collectively covered all our bases in that regard.

Just like we could be wrong about which mason is the traitor, the mafia could also be wrong if they decide to start NKing claimed masons. I don't think the mafia are going to spend NKs on someone who might be their traitor, which is why I still think we should not lynch a mason today. If we happen to lynch correctly and the traitor dies, our masons are then all vulnerable to NKs. It is invaluable to the town to have masons alive at end game, so I see no benefit to wagoning masons. Rather, we have negative side effects if we guess wrong and kill a protown mason, and negative side effects if we guess right and kill the traitor this early.

I think the best course would be for everyone to continue analyzing the play of all the claimed masons, while not letting it consume the thread. We need to be looking elsewhere to find the actual mafia. I will reread within the next 2 days.

(QFT)

[Korejora]

Niv, if we were all 97% sure Sim was scum and the other three of you were town, it would still be a bad idea to lynch him.

[Korejora]

(she)

[Korejora]

Well... his last minute vote was sort of irrelevant. It was quite obvious he was going to be lynched at that point. So, it's a null tell. Too many WIFOMy things around it if you do not know my alignment.

Also, in analyzing BM's reaction and his claim, I missed the possibility that he was the mafia roleblocker, and considered only a normal scum goon. I think I would have done more or less the same thing had I been in BM's place as the scum roleblocker.

See, what I was expecting from BM was a DGB type power role claim (Vig seemed likely). The real power role has to counter claim in order to lynch the scum. Now, because the scum had the RB and because the doctor was dead (hence they wouldn't have needed the RB on cop) they could have easily RBed the power role and hence minimized it's effectiveness.
However, as he was a mafia roleblocker, I suppose his claim and reaction fits, as a claim and a counter claim would have only given the town one more confirmed townie today, which was clearly bad from mafia POV, and they wouldn't have got a chance to RB the role with BM dead.

Why would the real power role necessarily counter claim? Especially a vigilante, who can take care of the problem on their own that night if they don't get a lynch.

[Korejora]

You were voting ZONEACE for about 1/4 of D1, iirc. Can you tell us why you have placed Setael, Elmo, MoS and Jdodge where they are in your list?

[Korejora]

What do I think of Jdodge... Pretty much the same thing as everyone else, except less, since I haven't really got any metagame. He's only made it into 2-3% of the thread, and only about a quarter of those psosts had significant content - and not much of it at that. So he's lurked, I guess. That means little to me either way.

Like I said, I haven't played on the site enough to make any kind of metagame, so I have just left that as it is. He is neutral (scummy/townly scale) to me because there's not enough information to work with. If the town is concerned about him (as they don't seem to be due to this apparently being normal behaviour) then he will get enough attention that lurking will become unacceptable, and then I'll be able to guess at more.

The only other thing I have to note is that he voted for all of the scum we've found so far, seems to agree with other people a lot, and likes putting people near lynches. I have no real comment on how that affects his supposed alignment.


Regarding BM's lynch, I don't think it was inevitable enough to say Sir T was just getting a little last-minute attention. I wasn't sure whether it would go through, especially after Sir T unvoted. It had already lost a bit of momentum in the time it took for BM to claim, and KaleiÐoscøpe just sort of came out of nowhere.

[Korejora]

Just like we could be wrong about which mason is the traitor, the mafia could also be wrong if they decide to start NKing claimed masons. I don't think the mafia are going to spend NKs on someone who might be their traitor, which is why I still think we should not lynch a mason today. If we happen to lynch correctly and the traitor dies, our masons are then all vulnerable to NKs. It is invaluable to the town to have masons alive at end game, so I see no benefit to wagoning masons. Rather, we have negative side effects if we guess wrong and kill a protown mason, and negative side effects if we guess right and kill the traitor this early.

I think the best course would be for everyone to continue analyzing the play of all the claimed masons, while not letting it consume the thread. We need to be looking elsewhere to find the actual mafia. I will reread within the next 2 days.

If you could present a solid counter to this, Niv, then I would more seriously consider following you onto a mason lynch. I still think it's too early to go after them, even if we caught scum last night.

[Korejora]

Elimination is an OK way of choosing, IMHO, but I am not really sure how you came up with the numbers for how many people you had to bring it down to.

[Korejora]

@T.. By numbers, I mean how you decided how many mafia there were in the setup. Maybe there's just some magical formula that I don't know about because I haven't played on the forum enough. And by 'traitors usually don't need to be lynched', do you mean the town wins even if the traitor is still alive?


@Simenon: Setael wasn't really contradicting herself, since she was referring to her question which came

before

your saying you thought Sir T was town, before which I don't think you had talked about him. Also: why

do

you think Sir T is town? Please confirm if it's because Setael and JDodge are voting him, like Setael suggests. That was kind of unclear, and I wasn't sure whether you were saying he was town and thus Setael and JDodge were scum because they were on him, or they were scum and thus he was town because they were on him.


Ether, could I bother you to talk about JDodge?

[Korejora]

Eh.

Vote: JDodge

, I guess--mostly Tornado's behavior around ZONEACE, though I still don't feel great. What's up?

Like I've said, I can't figure out what's up with JDodge. I was hoping you could offer some insight, more than either "he's not helpful" or "this is totally normal for him".

Um, I don't quite follow what you're saying in reference to Tornado and ZONEACE.

Kore, of course there is a magical formula. It's called balancing the setup.

I've been looking through the large games in this forum with about the same number of players. It kind of wavered between 5-6 and occasionally down to 4, barring two-mafia setups, and often had a serial killer. So... I don't see how we have 5 mafia in this setup. I'm not saying you're

wrong

, I'm just a little uncomfortable with how sure you are of it.

I was testing reactions on ZONEACE, and his response to MoS really does seem very muted in comparison to his reactions to everyone else, including me.

Are you sure that's not a case of OMGU rock? I don't know that I'd say MoS is scum just because of what ZONEACE thinks of him, and to me MoS has the same sort of lack of meticulousness you're towning Sim for.

[Korejora]

Not a particularly good one -- similar to the one I joined the game with. He's very abrasive and says things are 'obvious' without so much as explaining why he has formed an opinion, much less reasoning it. He

does

say more than "I'm wrong, you're right", but because he's pulled that so much it's hard to focus on what else he's said and consider him contributory. Annoyance aside, I do think he's put forth less material recently. So, add to that his interactions with regards to the doctor, and I would consider him more voteworthy than many of the other players.

[Korejora]

You are forgetting the possible mafia traitor. Also, we know that mafia had at least 2 power roles (Godfather as well as the Roleblocker)

See, what I am banking on is that no members of masonary are full members of mafia. Then we are left with 7. If we have a total of 6 mafia, that means 4 out of 7 remaining non masons are scum, which I don't feel is realistic looking at the current situation. However, my original point is valid even if we have 6 scum rather than 5.

No, I am not forgetting the possibility of the mafia traitor. I am saying that you were assuming there were three scum among the remaining nonmasons. You counted three people as mafia, and said that was by process of elimination. To be able to use process of elimination, you must know or assume how many you need to tally it down to.

I think the problem is you thought I was talking about more mafia members, when I meant fewer. The possibility I was referring to was that we had five total scum -- four full mafia members and the mystery mason. As far as the setups I read through, when the mafia had 5-6 members, they tended not to have power, except for the standard godfather. We've seen a godfather

and

a roleblocker, and we don't know what the rest are.

[Korejora]

Um, I personally see Elmo / Beastly as way more contributive than JDodge / ckillor, across both the replacements and the originals. It's a matter of post content. Elmo and Beastly have detailed analyses of many different players and plays, but JDodge and ckillor just sort of... gripe at people and vote.

I'm not exactly teeming with posts either -- I have, what, 30? 40-50 if you include Aimee's? If you're going

solely

on post count, you'd have to include me in your complaint, too.

[Korejora]

Because Setael is trying to buddy herself up to people.

The only support I see for that involves her directly quoting Sir Tornado. I'm not sure how that warrants a vote.

[Korejora]

Okay,

now

JDodge is lurking in the spotlight.

I haven't got much to say besides that. Still waiting on him and ZONEACE to respond.

[Korejora]

I still don't see why Elmo's lack of posting makes him second most town. More town than ZONEACE and JDodge? Maybe. Second most town of all remaining people? I don't see how. And I still haven't gotten a decent answer for this question.

What exactly is a "decent" answer? Was the response you got too qualitative or something? I happen to agree with it. While I'm not sure I'd write Elmo off as town, I would happily vote ZONEACE or JDodge before voting him.

On the Lemming case: as far as I can find, Lemming did not vote Mastermind of Sin until 1414, which was on the second day, and his arguments with him on the first day appear to have mostly involved his defense of ZONEACE, so in the hypothetical that MOS is scum, I'm not sure he or the mafia would have been worried about him being a cop target.

Um, while you guys are discussing the first day, I just want to make sure we're all aware that ZONEACE is dodging a lot of the questions put to him by answering only certain specific ones, and JDodge appears to have expressed no interest in claiming or participating despite being effectively at -1, and instead looks like he intends to wait out the deadline.

[Korejora]

Right, sorry. My bad. I see what you mean now.

Just to be sure, you got this from his suspicion list in 2100?

I still think you're reading too much into it -- MOS obviously considers JDodge and ZONEACE scummy, and expressed his dislike for Flare. I don't know why exactly Sir Tornado is the top of his town list, though it may be because he's just the most active non-mason but that leaves two 'neutralish-townish' players -- Elmo and I -- and the both of us have very few posts total with our originals. His decision of which of us to put as 2nd and 3rd from the bottom of his naughty list may have been pretty arbitrary. MOS? Discuss?

Also, that's an interesting point; what implications/information does each JDodge cardflip offer?

[Korejora]

reserved yepyep

lol, nice.. are there still refreshments being served? :3

[Korejora]

Peach juice! ^____^

Served by mod

[Korejora]

Ok I am going to claim now. I am the vig.

This may look odd timed, but I think it is necessary I make myself a mafia NK target to make sure none of the masons, whose survival I deem extremely necessary for the town to win, are taken out on N5. And, I am willing to take a straw poll among everyone for the night kill. Also, I think that mafia would have figured this out already by now.

Who should I NK tonight? Right now, I am looking at one of MoS/JDodge/Setael/Elmo.

I would also like to hear your thoughts on White, and why you think mafia would want to kill White on N1. (because I killed Flameaxe)

rest of your targets

now

Seconded.

[Korejora]

...you're asking?

:?

[Korejora]

Which was his N1 kill?

[Korejora]

Sorry, I didn't catch his claiming of his first kill. It's been a long week.

JDodge: Who did you kill?

Kore shines a flashlight in Tornado's eyes.

Tornado: Stop! I surrender! I killed Setael and Elmo!
Elmo: Oh. Hmm.
Ether: I suppose he's confirmed now.
ZONEACE: Wait just a minute--Tornado is a liar! Setael and Elmo are

alive!

vote: Sir Tornado

...like that?

lol

[Korejora]

Back from the weekend.

Which was his N1 kill?

Are you even reading the thread

Try to make sure you're not being a hypocrite before you post. Or maybe you

did

read my apology, and you're just being an asshat. Either way, that unnecessary and rude.


As for the Bookitty attacks, I too think that she is forcing the MOS subject a wee bit too hard. I mean, I don't necessarily think MOS is town, but what's with the hate? Every time someone so much as glances at another player it's

HEY LISTEN, MOS TALKS FUNNY AND LIKES DOGS MORE THAN CATS

. IMHO, the points against him are just not strong enough to worry about right now. There are other players that, through this, have been handed the opportunity to slink out of the focus on a silver platter.

I don't see the real distinction between posting crap in this game to look active, and posting in other games while avoiding this one.

Bookitty, I think you're head-on ignoring the fact that the distinction is not "

no-content posts

versus

no posts

", but "

no-content posts

versus

forgivably few content-filled posts

". If you don't think Beastly or Elmo

had

any content in their posts, feel free to express this and even argue it, but you two repeating yourself this much is not really helping.

I'll

vote: ZONEACE

to better manipulate Tornado.

I don't understand this? I also don't understand what point you're trying to make with that vote count.

I have no idea what's going on here. I would at first think it's contradictory, since Sir Tornado was going to vig Setael or MOS

because

he was confident ZONEACE was a lynch possibility and not them, and that was pretty much the last thing Ether wanted, but this 'manipulation vote' happened before he said that.

[Korejora]

Do you think it's wise to declare someone as confirmed town and above suspicion when they are not in fact either thing? In general, would it more benefit scum or town to have someone regarded as cleared when they are not?

Hey, that's like a pair of loaded questions, only different. I've already told you I don't think MOS is cleared - just lower priority. I don't think Ether saying 'well I really think he's town' merits 5+ pages of ignoring all of the other players in the game just to snarl and bite and say that one person feeling 90% sure of something is not allowed when you're not in on it. Besides, you were hounding MOS before Ether even put the Lemming-wasn't-roleblocked issue forth. If you weren't already a mason and Skruffs weren't already dead, I'd probably suspect you had a guilty result on him and were just having trouble finding a plausible reason for the town to go along with your lynch.

[Korejora]

What players do you feel "have been handed the opportunity to slink out of the focus on a silver platter" due to this discussion? Have they done so?

I assume you're asking this question either for effect or to stall, since you answer it later in the same post yourself.

Also I'm letting JDodge and ZONEACE fly under the radar by being the leading bandwagon and tied for number two respectively.

They are getting no attention because of your actions. You are basically saying to JDodge that it's totally fine not to claim or even

post

when he's at -1 or -2 because you'll distract the town for him, and that votes really mean nothing because we're not actually going to discuss the leading bandwagon.


And yes, I would argue that none of that is contradictory. You're too focused on MOS and attacking him, you're "attacking Elmo too harshly" -- oh wait, you were actually attacking MOS for

not

attacking Elmo... and you refusing to interrogate anyone else pretty much points directly at a one-track mind. As for those two, your focusing on MOS is the very thing that let them fly under the radar, so I don't see how that could possibly be contradictory.

[Korejora]

Um, killing someone for no

apparent

reason is pretty harsh, and arguably just as bad as no reason at all.

As for questioning those two, if I just wanted to ask them questions, then it wouldn't matter that you were discussing something else - I can talk to them just fine while you continue. Your input, and that of the others in the MOS discussion (mostly Ether and MOS himself) are kind of important.

The other side of the problem is that all you've really done is lost a game of chicken with them. You press them for answers, and they refuse to give them. So what happens next? Will you back down from lynching before they back down from refusing? If you're going to back down, then they win, and if they're scum, then you're giving them a free ride just because they had more guts than you.

If you

really

don't have anything to say about them, then what about Setael II? A lot of people think she's scum for some reason, and I think I've missed a key part of what that is. Could everyone reiterate (or if you think she's town, go ahead and write that down instead)?

[Korejora]

So, Korejora, WHOSE FAULT IS IT NOW?

Um, yours?

You

poked the angry hornet's nest with your repetition and insistence. While further discussion of that subject is not really what I want, I can understand people getting a little indignant at you not answering the questions that arose during the discussion. As I see it, you had ample time to address the questions

before

I requested the subject be dropped, and even longer before you actually agreed to do so, so I don't think you really have any right to step behind that request and its motherly wing now.

Still, I would like it if the others could drop it, or at least wrap it up quickly. It

would

be nice if Ether would make a new outline of her questions, since if you've been dodging them as long as she says then they're likely now buried in the discussion and not very convenient to find and answer.

I don't think MOS was asking you to justify others' actions so much as justify not going after others for unjustified actions (does that make any sense? I can never tell at 5 am). Concerning Setael, I didn't ask you to defend her. I asked you to explain why she was scummy, since you gave the green light on her being killed. Didn't you? Maybe I just need to get some sleep.

One more thing... where did Niv run off to? I thought someone wanted him to make a special list. It couldn't hurt to hear from Sir Tornado, either.

[Korejora]

I'm not dead opposed to or in favour of any particular vig.

ZONEACE, please don't ignore Elmo. Lurkers need love, too. Especially in deadline.

[Korejora]

Bookitty, even assuming his 'list' hasn't change since page 95 (which I kind of doubt), your exclusion of Elmo from his options doesn't make sense.

[Korejora]

No.

JDodge
ZONEACE
Setael II
Sir Tornado
Elmo
Korejora

Sir Tornado is not his topmost townie, although that may have changed since the vigilante claim, and while Elmo is second most town, he is

between

Setael and myself, not on one side of us.

[Korejora]

Right, I guess it was after he claimed.

I linked to the post because I always link to posts out of courtesy unless they're directly above mine, Bookitty. Where the post was in relation to Sir Tornado's claim is pretty irrelevant, as all it changes is whether or not MOS had reason to change his mind since then.

Your point doesn't stand whatsoever, Bookitty, unless you have a reason MOS would want to vig the person he finds

most

town over the person he finds second most town.

[Korejora]

I like saying your name, Bookitty.

[Korejora]

I read the part that I quoted. I'm not going to re-read a post that long just because I have a linking habit. I made it a point of saying that because I recalled, even if incorrectly, that the post came before the claim. Given that, I didn't want to make it sound like the list was ultimately what we should base MOS' opinion when it could have easily changed, like you seem to want to do with a post that was fifteen pages ago.

What the hell does my opinion of Elmo matter? We're talking about MOS' opinion of him. If you're going to snap at my tail for an irrelevant mistake, you could at least admit when

you're

wrong as well before changing the subject.

[Korejora]

Certainly, but you didn't ask why he changed his mind -- you asked him who he would vig between Setael and me. I pointed out that I thought it was odd to exclude Elmo, which you said you did because he was the most town on MOS' list (excluding the vig himself), which simply isn't true.

While I appreciate your trying to get a better picture of what's going on, I feel you were leading on by misrepresentation.

Yes, I do think that's an unreasonable expectation. I link to every single post that I refer to directly, and I simply don't have the time to read that much.

My opinion of Elmo is means nothing in relation to why you excluded him from your vig list you presented to MOS. It's not necessarily pointless, just irrelevant to what we were discussing at the time. If you must know, I have absolutely no idea whether Elmo is town or not, but if I had to put him on a scale of -10 to +10, positive being town and negative being scum, he'd be at maybe 2.

[Korejora]

[19:13:25] patrickgower2006: if you are very bored you should do a spam post in my game so I can do a votecount

[Korejora]

Deadline's coming. I'm starting to think it was being stalled for.

[Korejora]

Does this mean we should throw out the mafia traitor mason idea?

[Korejora]

I'm here, but I'm too sick to stand up or think straight and I'd rather not vote. If you want a speedlynch, you'll have to ask the masons.

[Korejora]

I don't know what neutral roles exist other than survivor and SK

Lyncher, jester, and cultist are the only others I know of, although I wouldn't consider a cult as a possibility.

I'm starting to get a little mixed up as to where everyone stands right now.

[Korejora]

Yeah, only three of us aren't claimed.

I'm not really that sure as to the alignment of the scum mason. While a neutral player would be a good target for the scum, the lack of mason death isn't really indicative of a neutral, since firstly, the mafia wouldn't have known until now that their traitor wasn't a mason, and secondly, they've been pretty tied up with killing power roles - they needed to kill the cop and the vigilante, and haven't had much breathing room till now. Regardless, I seriously doubt that all the masons are innocent and just non-confirmed for balance. Even with the confounding factor of the mason PM suggesting one of them is untrustworthy, having a quarter of the innocent town linked in that way is just too much.

It's kind of awkward having the town practically separated into two parts. It's like having two parallel endgames going on at once, at least in terms of how much choice we have. Like, if MOS is pretty sure that ZONEACE is town, then from his perspective it's between only two people - Setael and me. Even with the most likely possibilities this narrow, though, I still have no idea who is scum. It'd be lying to say Elmo's cardflip took me by surprise, simply because I wasn't expecting one thing or the other, so there was nothing for it to stump. This is one of those games that makes me just want to walk away and see how it works itself out because no matter how much I read it I can't figure one way or the other, and I feel I'll do more harm than good with my vote.

[Korejora]

Korejora, given the situation, do you think we should consider lynching one of the masons today?

Iunno. If we assume there's a neutral player in the masons, then no -- there doesn't appear to be a secondary killing role, and anything that can nightkill is a much more immediate threat. That's only one possibility, though; if we have one member of the mafia left, and they're a mason, and there's a neutral player in the rest of the town, then the mason scum is instead the bigger threat. If there are two of the mafia left, and they're in both the masons and the non-masons, then it doesn't really make a difference.

What do you figure the likelihood of each scenario is?

[Korejora]

You see, I bussed our scumbuddies the godfather and the roleblocker, and ZONEACE demands justice for this treachery.

[Korejora]

Deadline's coming. I'm starting to think it was being stalled for.

Elaborate?

I mean that there was a disproportionate amount of time spent discussing players who were not actually in jeopardy in the face of the deadline. Finding this inappropriate, and irritated by it, I hypothesized bitterly that it could have happened on purpose to get an uncertain lynch through that otherwise wouldn't necessarily have happened.

I'm dealing with a friend who has recently developed a drinking problem, so I don't have the time, the energy, or the calmness to peruse the evidence and choose a confident first or second. This is also why I'm not voting. If you have any questions more specific than that, I'll do my best to answer.

[Korejora]

Maybe I'm just tired and grumpy, but I think that that's obvious and I feel like you're playing dumb and streaming questions at people to pretend you're being helpful.

To entertain the dispute: MOS was being argued about for a long time, as I repeatedly expressed my dismay for. Examining your suspects is all good and well, but JDodge, being the one that would have been (and was) lynched at the end of the day, had the case with of significantly more immediate concern. Having neglected this more urgent case, we basically had an 'ehh, we need to lynch

someone

' lynch, rather than having spent the deadline time actually figuring out whether it was a good lynch.

[Korejora]

Bookitty, this is, like, the tenth time you've acted like I wanted you to get JDodge and ZONEACE to post or ask them questions. I don't recall ever having said that, unless you count not disapproving of it when

you

mentioned it. My biggest problem is that whenever I brought up anything that day that didn't have to do with MOS, I was completely ignored. Well, no, not completely; Ether did address some of my questions. It was also frustrating because you guys weren't even making progress -- you just repeated yourself a zillion times at each other,

while in deadline

, and that really made it feel like stalling.

Another thing I've never said that that you make reference to is that I think MOS is town. I don't.


Although, if being overly certain of something you lack support for is a scumtell, why aren't you voting ZONEACE?

[Korejora]

Look, Bookitty... I

never

asked you to do

anything

with one of the other players. If I wanted something from another player, I'd ask

the other player

, not you. All I wanted from those involved in the dispute was to talk to me, because I felt whenever I tried to discuss anything, it was ignored. It seemed the only way to get a response from you guys was to tip the railroad subject off the tracks.

I'm not sure how it's 'not bothering to vote' to abstain from a lynch I didn't advocate.

you're so sure MoS is town

I guess you were joking. Okay.


I'm just poking fun at ZONEACE for saying so surely that I'm scum when it's literally impossible to have a meta on me, and when he still hasn't given that case that just about everyone in the town, including the recently dead, has asked for independently, unless you count him telling Setael he thinks I bussed all the scum so far.

[Korejora]

I haven't got a strong enough opinion about anyone to condemn them. MOS isn't an exception. I'd put him more on the scum side than the town side if that helps any.

Regarding questions, the only specific thing directed at

you

that comes to mind that was literally

ignored

was when I was trying to gauge the usefulness of JDodge's death. I believe the question was something along the lines of what his alignment would imply were he killed. I probably used the word 'cardflip', since it was being thrown around. Just as important as straight-up ignoring questions, though, is redirecting them by answering them with other questions.

I'd think asking to drop the subject constitutes asking you

not

to do something with the other players. Even were that an interactive request, I also asked the other players to drop the subject, so it didn't give you any exterior responsibility.

If you were stalling out for the deadline lynch, I would in fact surmise that you

would

argue against the lynch, so that you could pull the good old I-told-you-so and pretend it was the last thing you wanted when in fact you would have manipulated the situation to bring it about. That doesn't change much, though. The others in the discussion could have just as easily set up a stall, and all they'd be doing differently is saying "oops" instead of "hmph".

My lack of direction didn't significantly affect the decision-making process. In fact, I would go so far as to say it didn't affect it whatsoever. The MOS debate, on the other hand, threw the issue at hand out the window and didn't make the trip to pick it up until, pretty much by reflex, everyone decided a shaky lynch is better than a no-lynch.

I wasn't against JDodge's lynch in the sense that I couldn't have said with certainty that he was town, but I still didn't like it, considering that his lynch was very sparsely discussed. Elmo was executed with little trial in a similar manner, and as it turned out, whoop-de-dee-da, he was scum. Hindsight doesn't make either of those deaths look any better than they did yesterday, if you ask me.

[Korejora]

Is that a rhetorical question?

The fact that you ask a question first doesn't preclude your answering it if it's asked of you, too. If you didn't want to "answer it for her", then instead of completely ignoring me,

tell me

that you're trying to avoid mucking her answer, and then wait until she given hers so you can safely give yours. It's not like she really even answered the question.

Regardless, we digress.

[Korejora]

Well, if you don't want to discuss your accusation, I guess I don't need to, either. It would just make me feel better if you didn't think I had been asking you to do something that I'd never intended to request. What we probably

should

be discussing is what to do next.

@Setael: The question was of what JDodge's cardflip implies. You said you didn't know, and that was that. Have you gotten any new ideas since then?

[Korejora]

I asked a question, so I wanted an answer, which I should have thought was obvious to anyone paying attention to... no, actually, obvious to anyone.

I haven't discussed the analysis because I'm annoyed that you keep making things up about me and I wanted to put that out of the way. I never said it was your fault anyone was lurking. I never asked you to force someone to do anything. I never said discussing the MOS case was a bad idea today. I never said I thought MOS was town. I never said I thought you were scum. It's a sizeable list. It's misleading. It's unfair. It's wrong. Stop doing it.

Why did you skip ~70% of 2636, by on the by?

Why don't you have any significant suspicions of anyone at this point in the game? (See, it wasn't a rhetorical question after all.)

Yeah, I had to ask, because I thought you were simply peacocking about my inability to hound a case. Since all the cool kids are doing it, I'll just accuse you of not reading. I already explained my thorough consideration of the possibilities, mostly with regards to the scum mason, and concluded with no small amount of frustration that I had nothing to say on the matter.

[Korejora]

@Bookitty: I gave you a list of false assumptions, so I don't know what's missing there. The reason I interrupted the MOS discussion was because I wanted us to look at the JDodge lynch more closely. I'm not questioning MOS

now

because that's been covered pretty well already -- my verdict, so to speak, comes from the questioning that's already been done.

I see what you mean about preventing his lynch by making another lynch, but I still had no idea about JDodge's alignment and I thought it would be deceptive to just sort of swap in someone else to prevent it. That would also likely put him on the table the next day, regardless of who else was lynched.

You don't need to be asked questions to address an argument. This is shown by the fact that you were able to make any response whatsoever, despite that there were none. Since you didn't respond to my addressing the accusation you kept making about me asking you to get other players to do one thing or another, I'm not sure if you just wanted me to make an assumption.


I don't have any suspicions

now

, but a lynch would give more information than I have now. The only mislynch I really see pointing towards Bookitty is MOS. If Setael came up town, I would suspect ZONEACE and Niv next. If Bookitty turned up town, I would look to Ether. If ZONEACE came up town... well, I don't know. I don't really have any subtleties to go on and the rest of the town's treatment of him doesn't give me much of a clue. I would take a closer look at Simenon, I suppose.

If any of those players came up scum, on the other hand, I'd be lost again. I still think we may be dealing with a neutral so it kind of strains the possibilities.

[Korejora]

Well, okay then.

[Korejora]

HI MIZZY!

We're not in deadline. And, umm, am I not

supposed

to have a problem with stalling? Like, I honestly thought it was anti-town. If it's not, someone please explain.

Also, Ether, are there very specific reasons for your townish players' standing, or is it just sort of a feeling thing? If you've already said them, sorry, I forget.

It'd be cool if ZONEACE and Setael could answer that general question too.

[Korejora]

I gave my suspicions, Bookitty, to the best of my ability. I'm terribly sorry that you found them unsatisfactory, but there's not much I can do about not knowing who's the scum.

[Korejora]

SHE WINKS AT THE STARS FROM HER BED OF GREEN CHEESE
THAT ISN'T A NIGHT-GOWN
IT'S A SATURN CHEMISE

My guess is that Bookitty's point (which I agree with) is that it's a lot harder to have reads on people if you're scum because you DO have to fabricate them. As town, you may be wrong, but you usually have a read on everyone.

Conversely, as scum, it's easier to settle on someone and commit to your "suspicion" because you

know

what the outcome will be if your lynch goes through, and you're carefully manipulating the situation, rather than taking a tentative step and hoping you don't slip and tumble.

I don't see how being town means you should have

more

confidence, unless you're posing to please. Frankly, I'm surprised

anyone

is confident in their votes. We just lost two scum in a row, which heavily reduces everyone's technical probability of being scum. Then there's that the first was a valuable member, the roleblocker, meaning scum would treat him with special care to reduce risk, and the second was the traitor, meaning the scum couldn't have been acting differently towards him, so neither would give us much information.

I think you missed my question.

[Korejora]

I personally don't approve of the null-hypothetical standard of the scientific method. It's a good tool as a

standard

, which is extremely important in the scientific community, but it doesn't suit me personally and so I use an empirical-reactive method instead unless I'm delivering a scientific report. While by conventional standards this makes me look fairly "wishy-washy" until the results come in, it works just fine for me and I don't intend to toss it aside just because it's met with aesthetic disapproval.

Why make such an accusation, Korejora, if you don't know who you're targeting with it?

Um, why not? It's not like I had some kind of elegant theoretical in mind when I threw that in there. It was a fairly offhand comment, and the only reason I bothered to expand on it is that Ether brought it up again and asked me to elaborate. Don't blow it out of proportion.

I would've thought this to be the one thing you'd praise me for, since apparently we're supposed to voice suspicions, and this one sure as darn heck did provoke a such prescribed reaction.

Besides all that, if I were really trying to be 'conciliatory', it's doubtful I'd be so contrary. Stubbornness and argumentativeness are not conducive to making conciliations.

[Korejora]

Korejora made an accusation about stalling for JDodge's lynch -- but she's not sure if it was me, or MoS, or third parties to be named later... it was an accusation without a target. So...

When did I get dragged into this?

As one of the people involved in the argument, you were a technically a candidate. The possibilities would be you, Bookitty, or Ether, as the three main participants in the tangential dispute.

This statement strikes me as making the fight between BM and Kore even more likely to have been faked. Makes it seem like Kore is very aware of how "contrary, stubborn and argumentative" she can be, and likely that she's doing it intentionally for her benefit.

Or maybe I've become self-conscious about it because Simenon openly told me that I was doing it.


@Bookitty: Simenon offered you the meta that I "never vote". Would you say that I'm deviating from that? If not, unless you don't trust him, you should consider it a null tell, not a scum tell.

I'm not really seeing how I'm so exclusively being flexible. You don't need to refuse to make a choice to keep your options open later. Even if you pick someone that you want to zero in on, you can make a complete about-face at your convenience. Sometimes enough evidence really

does

come up to make a jarring reconsideration, so it's not particularly hard to disguise your vote change as such if you're scum.

Would it

really

make you feel better if I made a tangible list?

[Korejora]

Plot twist!

As I see it, you aren't getting a fifth voter anytime soon. Unless someone threatens to lynch me, I see no reason to claim.

[Korejora]

vote: Setael

Prefer her over Bookitty. She's opportunistic enough to put her at the top of my nonexistent list, and Bookitty just doesn't look like scum to me.

Of course, each of everyone else either finds her to be town or has their own top-end beef, so this isn't

actually

going anywhere. I just want it on record in case I die.

[Korejora]

Thankies, Axle <3

@Setael: No, I think I'm going to just leave it hanging like that so the town can get all grumpy about me being so useless that they couldn't see it coming when I turn out not to be a serial killer.


My problem in a nutshell is that you seem to only vote people that already have ~two or more votes on them, and your justification tends to be pointing at what someone else has already said and ceremoniously declaring, "that".

When you voted me, all you said was "yeah, what Bookittty said" and there wasn't really any way to answer it. When you voted JDodge, it wasn't till he had

four

votes, and your post again started with "I agree with this". Your vote on BM is a little more understandable, despite having still been the third vote on the wagon, because you actually made your own thorough analysis of him, but man, if you can seriously justify voting me, then you obviously think getting one's roleblocker killed is a perfectly valid strategy and I see no problem in writing that off as bussing.

Going back a little further to the Setael-Bookitty argument... I can only really refer back to what I said in my opening post. The bandwagon didn't look good to me, and between you and Bookitty, if I had to play red or black, I would place you as the scum and her as the townie.

I haven't got much to say on Flare by sifting through the votecounts except that his initial wagon does not appear to have had any scum support, which is unusual in a 4+ vote wagon. Of course, only half of the wagon is

guaranteed

to be town, so that stands with one foot on facts and the other on my suspicions.

To give any more detail than that, I'd have to do a more thorough re-read, which I simply don't have time for.

[Korejora]

Umm, besides the fact that they can talk at night and know who each other are... They only become "regular players" in terms of knowing who they are because they've all claimed.

I really don't know of any scum roles that don't need to be lynched for the town to win. Is the goal of the town in not simply to lynch

all

of the scum so there's only town left? Maybe not a survivor, or such, but I wouldn't think the 'untrustworthy' mason, if there is one after all, is a harmless neutral.

[Korejora]

Yeah, so much for Mafia. When you take away the majority-lynch rule in this case, assuming there's two scum left, that means

one

townie has to vote someone to mislynch.

ONE

. Scum don't even need to put

any

influence to get one single townsperson to misvote, and not much more than none to get two to, which means only one scum is likely to have to vote on a mislynch, so that the town doesn't even get any information from the mislynch.

I'm guessing I'm going to die today because the town is as collectively indecisive as I am alone, and the scum is stalling on a town wagon

again

because the moderator has made that into a perfectly valid strategy. Tomorrow, I assume one of the townspeople other than Bookitty will be dead, and Bookitty will be blamed for my lynch, and lynched herself, and then that's game because the scum will kill and then be two for two.

Of course, the town still stands a chance if Bookitty actually

is

scum, but my hopes aren't too high.

[Korejora]

and be lynched herself**

[Korejora]

I thought just a second ago I was town? Or was that conditional on me warming up to your buddying up? And how exactly have we recognized there's no reason to vote you? I gave you my reasons, and I don't have anything further to go on because you didn't bother to counter any of it.

[Korejora]

To be honest, I'm also iffy about Niv, but apparently Setael's trying to minimize the analytical help she gives the town for use after her death, so I'm a little more firmly convinced on this one.

[Korejora]

Oh. I missed that. Well, now I feel like a bitch.

MOD:

Deadline extension a few days or so, please? I don't believe it's unreasonable, considering how much has changed recently, and the fact that two of the players are partially or completely absent for the deadline hit.

[Korejora]

I thought MOS had been going after you for a long time? Maybe I missed something.

Regardless, I think I'd still be more suspicious of Niv if you flipped town, for some similar reasons to those which make me think you're scum, especially in the past few pages.

[Korejora]

@Bookitty - Ignoring questions is a problem, but MOS has expressed his strong belief that Setael is scum (although bugger if I can figure out his reasoning) and he has every right to do whatever it takes to get the lynch through. It's a very different situation from the JDodge one, where no one really

wanted

to lynch JDodge - it was just sort of "ehh, I guess he's the least townish."

I can't say it strongly affects my opinion of MOS, but once again, I never said I thought MOS was town. He is one of those players that I don't want to place in either category. His method of getting Setael lynched is kind of irrelevant until we know her alignment, regardless. My opinion of him certainly isn't

improving

, and I definitely took another look at him after the posts directly after the extension, but after that look I still don't place him at the top. I foresee Setael's alignment affecting this somehow, but I repeat that I'm more suspicious of Niv in relation to Setael than I am MOS. I'm not sure I have a sufficiently concrete explanation for it... just, the way the players interacted gave me a different read.

@Simenon - I wanted Setael to make as thorough an analysis as she could so that we could have as much as possible to work with tomorrow. I do believe she's scum, but if I'm wrong, as I very well could be with such an unsure game, we can't afford having another townie just drop out of the game without giving any information we can work with. We need opinions as up-to-date as possible which have their sincerity guaranteed. Yesterday, and today if we mislynch again, are exemplary of how the game tends to go without them. The gesture is pointless if she's scum, but I'd prefer not to pretend I'm infallible.

[Korejora]

2/5 masons. And I have no idea what to look at here. I was halfway guessing yesterday, and I'd be completely guessing today. I had to take another look at MOS when Setael turned up innocent, after how long he'd been after her, but my opinion hasn't changed from yesterday -- I still think it incriminates Niv more than MOS. Bookitty's death didn't give me anything new since I already figured her for town - it just reinforced what I already had, which wasn't much.

ZONEACE still doesn't point me either way. I skimmed some of his games when I first replaced into this game; he was acting normal then, and he's acting normal now. If Ether is scum, then I would probably say MOS is scum, but I don't think that's right. Niv, I repeat, bothers me for the same reasons Setael did. Simenon hasn't given me much of a reason to think he's town, but that's not something I'd like to lynch someone on.

I think we all agreed we probably only had two chances left. Bookitty and I both threw in our fair share of complaints about that. I have no particular qualms with mass-claiming, but as far as I can tell we don't really have a standout player that everyone thinks is town, so how do you intend to organize it?

[Korejora]

Randomizing can be rigged too easily, especially if it's done by one of the people claiming.

[Korejora]

No. I didn't know the forum had a built-in dice rolling function.

'Nilla.

[Korejora]

I figured.

[Korejora]

vote: Niv

Peekaboo.

[Korejora]

If we were to lynch me today and sim tomorow, even though I have to die, we still lynch scum.

If there are two scum left, and we mislynch today, then we will lose. 5/22 for one scum group seems pretty standard to me.

[Korejora]

MOS-Sim or ZONE-Niv? *muse*

I sure hope I'm not overlooking Ether for nothing.

Unvote

just to be sure.

[Korejora]

None of it. I personally think Niv is scum, and I was thinking to myself that ZONEACE looks like he's trying to save his scumbuddy. Then, to be fair, I figured I should also point out the parallel pairing from my perspective, which, as Simenon just pointed out, seems much less likely.

As for the unvote, I'm just being careful.

[Korejora]

Although I have to admit, I'm a little confused by the line: "it would give scum a higher percentage of the town's numbers". Seems kind of irrelevant in the context you put it in.

After doing a little more reading, I'm getting more confident about the Niv wagon, not because of Niv himself, but because of how the other players played his wagon in conjunction with their behaviour on past wagons.

I'd still like to wait for Ether to get back, though.

[Korejora]

Alternatively, we could lynch scum today, and have whoever would die to a no-lynch still around to help catch the other one, too.

[Korejora]

Yes. Everyone else skipped town. You win!

[Korejora]

No lynch is not more likely to save your scumbuddy than voting Simenon. Sorry.

[Korejora]

Muffin :(

vote: Niv

[Korejora]

I suppose that means you're not scum if he's town.

[Korejora]

Not that it matters if we lynch him and he turns out to be.

[Korejora]

Ehh, I have next to no experience with forum mafia so after my initial attack on the roleblocker I figured I should leave it to people who probably had better judgement. No idea why Sir Tornado likes me; I don't think I did much for the game.

I was pretty sure about the MOS-Simenon connection, because they seemed to agree on so much, but at the end I honestly didn't care about the outcome and lynching Niv looked easier. I probably should have asked to be replaced, and probably would have if the game hadn't been 100+ pages. I was surprised to see Bookitty die considering how much pressure had been on her in the days before, even though I was almost completely sure she was town. That probably should have tipped me off to MOS more than it did, but again, apathy was rampant.