New York 180 (Endgame)

[Ellie]

I am now part of this game.

[Ellie]

VOTE: ABR

[Ellie]

I've never played a large normal. What are the odds we have both a tracker and a cop?

[Ellie]

Research says the odds are "good"

[Ellie]

SilverWolf: What are the three scummiest posts in this game?

[Ellie]

Oh, I figured you would have already noticed a few scummy things, having played from the beginning.

[Ellie]

Yes, about five years of experience

[Ellie]

I'd be happy with a NakedJogger wagon.
VOTE: NakedJogger

[Ellie]

Kitz, I think ABR claimed out of laziness. He doesn't care enough about the game to invest the energy to defend himself, but claiming is easy.

[Ellie]

Welcome MathBlade.

[Ellie]

Boonskies, elusive is town. Mislynch someone else.

[Ellie]

Correct.

[Ellie]

Intuition and deductive reasoning were both involved.

[Ellie]

What's your view on the villain known as The Naked Jogger, Mr. Skiies?

[Ellie]

I haven't looked into

him/her/they

yet. I've noticed some aggression towards me. Definitely not a town read for me, but not necessarily a scum read.

Who are your town reads?

[Ellie]

pisskop, you seem like you want people to think you're town, but are actually scum.

[Ellie]

Okay. So as asked above, how so?

This is the measured response of scum trying to look unruffled.

[Ellie]

You ask questions. Ask for clarifications. Take small but boring positions. Light buddying - me & klingon on this page. No substance, but consistently doing things that

look

like substance.

[Ellie]

So you are scum. But I want to wagon NakedJogger first because he irritates me more.

[Ellie]

Okay, I ISO'd Cheetory, and I have him at leaning Town.

Why?

[Ellie]

So she doesn't get lynched?

[Ellie]

so....because VikingFan claimed cop they get a free pass the entire game? Yeah hell no.

What makes you think they might get a free pass for the entire game?

[Ellie]

Okay. VOTE: MathBlade

[Ellie]

NJ, I'm not irritated with you anymore today. However, you ignored our attempt to wagon you, and that is odd.

[Ellie]

UNVOTE: MathBlade
VOTE: NakedJogger

[Ellie]

Accurate vote count

(6) Klingoncelt: T S O, SilverWolf, FA_Q2, vikingfan, Aeronaut, Nobody Special
(5) NakedJogger: Kitz, Cheetory6, Grib, MathBlade, Ellie
(3) elusive: dragonspawn, pisskop, Boonskiies
(2) Boonskiies: elusive, Albert B. Rampage
(1) MathBlade: Shinobi
(1) Kitz: NakedJogger

Not voting: Wake88, Klingoncelt

[Ellie]

I assume there is scum on elusive's wagon. Almost certainly pisskop.

[Ellie]

NakedJogger, what are your reads?

[Ellie]

UNVOTE: NakedJogger
VOTE: pisskop

[Ellie]

elusive will not be lynched while I am alive. Take that as you will. I might consider dragonspawn, though

[Ellie]

Or something.

[Ellie]

Would someone please post a case on Klingoncelt for those of us who just replaced in?

[Ellie]

Thank you SW, looking through those links now.

[Ellie]

What doesn't make sense about those posts ABR?

[Ellie]

No, those are plausible points from your POVs. You're just missing a puzzle piece, is all.

[Ellie]

viking should investigate pisskop.

[Ellie]

Elusive is very unlikely to be lynched

after

my flip either.

[Ellie]

MathBlade, do you have a townread on pisskop or just null?

[Ellie]

We're not masons. Elusive, you are too clever for your own good.

[Ellie]

At least ABR's head is in the game now

[Ellie]

Let's move on

[Ellie]

NJ fits pretty well with pisskop. VOTE: NakedJogger

[Ellie]

TSO, what is your opinion about the fact that pisskop is scum?

[Ellie]

TSO, 1179 1192 1193 1194

[Ellie]

if I get lynched today, Town will lose the game. Guaranteed.

...What?

[Ellie]

You should vote pisskop.

[Ellie]

I think Klingon's town & mislynch bait. Forgets she claimed VT. Says pisskop is cop. Votes TSO over easier NJ wagon. Voting her reads before trying to survive. Looks like forgetful or distracted town.

[Ellie]

Suppose she

could

be avoiding the pisskop vote because they're partners. But it doesn't feel right.

[Ellie]

Check me, then. (She also seems to have forgotten that you claimed cop.)

[Ellie]

Want to think. UNVOTE:

[Ellie]

It's pisskop buddying her in 1175. She forgets her claim, but still writes posts from a VT pov: consistent. Says pisskop is cop: not thinking about PRs. Votes beliefs not for survival: town mindset.

[Ellie]

Or - saying pisskop is cop means she IS distracted, one way or another.

[Ellie]

VOTE: NakedJogger

[Ellie]

If pisskop shoots me tonight, lynch him.

[Ellie]

Okay in order: Town, white flowers, no I swear I'm town, octopi are amazing, and wagoning everyone is the only way. And I think TSO is the most dangerous person here when he's scum.

[Ellie]

Welcome Ozgin

[Ellie]

What's your impression of wake's last few posts

[Ellie]

And yes, klingon's "Should we lynch them?" was

not

a scum tell.

[Ellie]

Wake, town can figure out a game by talking to people, asking questions, and skimming ISOs. Scum have trouble faking that so they sit on their hands and complain about how many pages they missed.

[Ellie]

See MathBlade's ISO.

[Ellie]

Oh? Mathblade is the one pushing it? Yeah, nope. Not voting NJ now. I didn't know math was a leading person pushing that wagon. Thought she was just trying to randomly join and attempt to explain.

Mm yes, that's a good way to avoid considering her points. Good technique.

[Ellie]

Wake, town can figure out a game by talking to people, asking questions, and skimming ISOs. Scum have trouble faking that so they sit on their hands and complain about how many pages they missed.

Speaking of asking questions, you ignored me twice, which makes your post ironic.

As for your second statement, you're woefully incorrect. Never make assumptions about Scum, or what you think they would do.

No. You said you were going to "wade in" & catch up. Then TWO posts later, you asked me to do something... that I did on the previous page. Proving that you did NOT wade in. Proving you are lazy active lurking SCUM who decided not to read the game and is now

out of his depth

.

[Ellie]

Case closed. Bring in the dancing lobsters.

[Ellie]

Not receptive at all.

[Ellie]

elusive, 1397 sounded like you understood

[Ellie]

I never claimed mason. I said a missing puzzle piece could explain my posts, and that I doubt elusive would be lynched. Both statements are 100% true. Hardly my fault you guys misinterpreted.

[Ellie]

If you had to choose between pisskop, Ellie, and vikingfan, which would you go for and why?

pisskop only. I believe vikingfan's claim.

[Ellie]

Trust in Ellie

[Ellie]

Well, you're probably not getting lynched today? If you want to help people town read you, post a read wall or something

[Ellie]

We've got what, six hours? Sounds doable.

[Ellie]

I think I like Ozgin for town.

[Ellie]

I think I like Ozgin for town.

How exactly?
. Did you read at all back on House?

Her entrance is very town-replacement-deciding-between-two-wagons. I find House too hard to read. What do you think of her? Also why do you start your paragraphs with periods?

[Ellie]

As far as I can tell, NJ is playing like a frustrated townie.

Wait what? NJ doesn't sound remotely frustrated. Are you reading his posts?

[Ellie]

And sorry for calling you 'she' Ogzin. I tend to assume everyone on the internet is female until proven otherwise.

[Ellie]

Putting numbers of wagons? That's messy, not analysis. We don't even know what he read. You fail to trust 2 claims today, but you trust Ozgin because he is nice to Elusive?

Not having read nor had to experience the fatigue of this game and wanting to 'progress' it? Also not exactly displaying a town interest in the game.

...is this talking to me?

[Ellie]

Okay, please quote the posts where I "failed to trust 2 claims", or said I "trusted Ozgin because he was nice to Elusive." (And yes, I think Ozgin's approach to getting into the game looks genuine.)

[Ellie]

ABR is on the wrong side of history. Textbooks will talk about his incorrect Ellie read for centuries to come.

[Ellie]

I think TSO is the most dangerous person here when he's scum.

Errr, have we played together before?

You must have made an impression on me somewhere

[Ellie]

@Klingoncelt will you please vote NJ? Thank you

[Ellie]

I apologize. That was not you.

So, can you convince me NJ is town?

[Ellie]

Were people really expecting NJ to not hammer his counterwagon?

lol

The people who thought he was town probably did

[Ellie]

NJ, still around?

[Ellie]

I sure hope I don't die tonight.

[Ellie]

I sure hope I don't die tonight.

Odds are strong. What are your final thoughts?

Avenge me by taking my pisskop read at least a little seriously.

[Ellie]

Why those three, Wake?

[Ellie]

Thank you

[Ellie]

I want people to consider me as someone on the NJ wagon because it effectively makes me look way more suspicious

Why do you want that?

p-edit oh god look at that fake acting like he even said "cripes" oh holy lord jesus

[Ellie]

That sounds believable

[Ellie]

it's so coincidental that viking claims he was Roleblocked just when the Scum Roleblocker happens to die and it feels disgusting and off.

Your reads are really opportunistic.

[Ellie]

You take whatever wagon everyone else is excited about and act like the person is confirmed scum.

[Ellie]

I am trying to understand where this notion of me treating him like "confscum" came from - it's certainly not at all apparent to me. I said he could be confscum -if- certain meta I haven't read yet backs one conclusion up - did you misread that post? Because that's everything I posted in relation to being confscum, so I don't see what other conclusion I could reach.

I think if I was trying to call him confscum I would have voted him - it's my usual procedure to follow in those cases.

Mm. Look at how you joined the Klingon wagon as it was heating up. Same pattern. Then, when there were reasons to think she might be town,

Anywayyy I hope Klingon's scumflip will help bolster her read

[Ellie]

At any rate, your research into vikingfan's meta should be interesting to read.

[Ellie]

How was your investigative resulted worded exactly?

Paraphrase it.

[Ellie]

I think vikingfan is a town cop and telling the truth, but I am okay with his death and will probably hammer him if he reaches L-1.

[Ellie]

It's pretty common on other sites for doc protects to be told. ika might just have liked the mechanic.

[Ellie]

It's not a coincidence that this question comes up in an ika game.

[Ellie]

vikingfan, where else do you play mafia?

[Ellie]

It's like if I were to say I was a doctor or something. No one would really have any reason to believe it, and a CC at this point would be stupid.

[Ellie]

I agree the kill implies at least one experienced scum who is good at PR hunting or reading Boon.

[Ellie]

I am sorry if this is overly harsh, but my time is rather precious these days and defending myself needlessly isn't something I particularly plan on doing this game.

Your last few posts are a textbook example of defending yourself needlessly in response to a very small amount of pressure, and make me think I'm onto something

[Ellie]

No

[Ellie]

There is an i in my name, and if you think scum are in the habit of announcing they want to hammer the cop, okay?

[Ellie]

Also worth noting:

I do see now why people would assume that but assumptions are faulty. I have not been playing mafia under an alt account or at another site.

[Ellie]

Why Shinobi? And would that be a team with pisskop or a second team?

[Ellie]

elusive & MathBlade, what do you think of vikingfan's claim to have been protected?

[Ellie]

I still think Kitz and Grib/goodmorning should be scum together. Grib probably saw how weak the case on Kitz was and he jumped on it for safe distancing. Then when there was real reason to scumread Kitz he jumped off, diffusing the pressure. When called out for it he listed up some scummy rubbish.

VOTE: goodmorning

Not updating your reads after on a scum flip. Check.

[Ellie]

I'm sort of starting to think TSO could be Town actually?

Fuck.

Really? I was only poking at him, but now he's doing things like: talking too much about the pro-town thing he's doing. The bravado fits my mental image of scum TSO (or is not alignment indicative).

[Ellie]

That's simple enough TSO. We have played before.

[Ellie]

Because I'm reading you pretty well here?

It was an alt. I don't want to share the account name.

[Ellie]

What can I do to convince you that vikingfan is scum? I have posted more content in one day that I have in this entire game, and I'm not seeing any more votes on him.

You could start by convincing me you are town, and not a scum tracker.

[Ellie]

Sorry, I realized during the night that I had mixed up my role pms with another game. I'm unfortunately a VT. My bad...

Ugh. I don't know how to read ABR. But I keep imagining myself looking back to this post after the game and asking

why

exactly we didn't lynch him for it

[Ellie]

Grib was pretty town.

[Ellie]

Ellie, just...just help us lynch vf. Okay?

And I know ABR's saying I'm scum. But doesn't this look like, "Ellie, I don't even mind when you say something scummy if you might possibly support the VF wagon," like he knows I'm town?

[Ellie]

It feels like exasperation at me acting like a jester, more than real suspicion

[Ellie]

VOTE: ABR
Yes, ABR, but your post doesn't fit if you think I am

scum

acting like a jester.

[Ellie]

He was being too obvious about his defense of NJ

[Ellie]

not voting for abr go somewhere else

What do you look for when reading ABR?

[Ellie]

unlikely. Look at the role for pk. He is just mafia. Not red or blue mafia or some other team designation. Just mafia. So unless we have werewolves floating around it seems unlikely. The second shot is more likely and sk or vigilante.

I also want to note that both the role blocker and doc were both non consecutive. Viking didn't claim any such modification for his cop role. Do you think it's likely we get a plain cop by that the other roles are nonconsecutive?

What would nonconsecutive cop even mean? And it could be mafia & werewolves & SK, or mafia & werewolves & vig, or mafia & SK & vig.

[Ellie]

vikingfan, where else do you play mafia?

Still want an answer to this

[Ellie]

Do you think ika absolutely follows Normal Guidelines?

[Ellie]

Guidelines is the key word. The rule about doc targets not being told is not a rule, according to what ika quoted earlier.

[Ellie]

Reviewers: ITT Regfan, mastin2 and Cogito Ergo Sum

Hm.

[Ellie]

Let's think on this for a minute. Why would VF, if Scum, go through the trouble of making an incredibly dubious-sounding claim when he could go the easy route? Do you remember when I claimed Sensor and how everyone reacted in spite of my honesty? Let's not forget the lessons of the past so quickly (I often tell this to myself).

The argument is that he believed doc targets were usually informed on MS, and made his fake claim based on that wrong assumption.

[Ellie]

So why in the world wouldn't we force the scum to shoot him tonight. No RB, no doc.

[Ellie]

Right. And vikingfan doesn't hint at who he's going to check, so the scum have to worry it will be them.

[Ellie]

Why today?

[Ellie]

Town VF likely dies tonight. If so, we avoid wasting a lynch. If not, he shares his result and we lynch him tomorrow. Then he either flips town or we get someone confirmed off his result

[Ellie]

should say: Then he either flips scum or we get someone confirmed off his result

[Ellie]

I see your point about Viking, Shinobi, but it would be preferable if people could just not tunnel to the exclusion of everything else

[Ellie]

And agree with #2201. Cheetory is a decent UTR scum read for me.

[Ellie]

I'm happy to try this. VOTE: cheetory

[Ellie]

Some of Kitz' posts feel weakly town to me on a gut level. I liked the initiative and independent thought behind 2005 for example

[Ellie]

Shinobi says concerned about letting VF love another day then through no poking/prodding/almost anything abandons that idea without reason to go for cheetory.

He stated he was trying to shift the focus to something more productive because the VF problem solves itself. I think he's town

[Ellie]

This was also the reason to not lynch yesterday and we got no useful results from the "cop".

Do you disagree that tonight is different from last night?

[Ellie]

RE: Ellie: I'll state for the record that the "I think he might be truthing but I'll vote for him" post doesn't seem impossible to have come from Town but that the post where she refuses to elabourate does.

I'm curious about this part - I actually had a very good reason for saying no, but what is your reasoning?

[Ellie]

What I don't get is this. When is it active? Is it every odd day, or is it every even day?
The main question is, can the Non-Consecutive work out a Night 1 action? Elaborate?

No restrictions on that. You can act on any night, but then you have to skip the next night. So N1 is okay. N2 is okay if you didn't act N1. If you act N2 you have to skip N3. Etc.

[Ellie]

@Ellie -- Agreed that is what he said.. Before that he was going to lynch VikingFan and changed with little to no provocation to change it. I think Shinobi is scum if VF is. If VF is town then I would need to reexamine.
The question about different is vague. I have always had a scum read on VF and thought he should be lynched. If this is not what you are asking please clarify.

No RB or doc tonight. I think he went through this thought process: don't lynch VF -> lynch VF to remove a distraction? -> will probably end up doing that but let's try looking at other people first

[Ellie]

^ defensive scum

[Ellie]

Math, who are your strong town reads? I want to see if they match mine

[Ellie]

Defending so passionately against "stupid" attacks when no one is even voting you? Yes, scummy

[Ellie]

This defensive scum didn't, however, say he would hammer town at L-1 for no reason. Pretty crazy, right, Ellie?

Probably because scum don't say things like that out loud

[Ellie]

Yes. You're assuming that it would be for no reason. Everything I do is for a reason. And no you didn't crush Math's argument, but even if you did, why would you have bothered? Is she scum?

[Ellie]

Me, elusive, goodmorning, you, SilverWolf. Ozgin and Shinobi are probably town, but not as strong. Why dragonspawn?

[Ellie]

Why Ozgin and Wolf?

pisskop tried to make me suspect Oz when I said I liked his replace in and Dragonspawn vouched for SW which matches my read of her. Active, open about thoughts, and scumhunting.

[Ellie]

More than anything else, Town can't afford to be opaque.

I think some people are too transparent as town

[Ellie]

If you are scum and see there were two kills and know who your team shot (prob Boon) why invent a third kill?

That

is overcomplicating

[Ellie]

I'm probably reading into semantics (again), but why do you say "Me,...are probably town,..."? Why do you equate yourself to probable town? I'm not gonna push too much here, though, because last time I was sticky about semantics I was dead wrong, but just something that never fails to grab my attention.

The names in the first sentence are strong town reads.

[Ellie]

Do you think keeping your reasons for making that post veiled is pro-town?

Yes, and I'll explain what I meant later anyway

[Ellie]

TSO - lock in some scum reads please. I don't see any for D2 in your ISO.

[Ellie]

TSO - lock in some scum reads please. I don't see any for D2 in your ISO.

I thought it was pretty clear you were one.

Sure. Who are my partners?

[Ellie]

Ellie needs to be ignored. She is a troll, pure and simple. Cluttering up the thread with nonsense; like a jester. Don't feed her.

This made me laugh and then wonder why you only started pushing this angle after I called you scum

[Ellie]

Opportunistic reads on Klingon & vf until called out.
Overreaction to pressure from GM, Math and me.
No scum reads D2 until forced.
No scum reads except me, for not explaining a post.
Votes me at the peak of my pressure on him.

Yup.

[Ellie]

Ellie either doesn't want to win, her win condition has nothing to do with killing scum, or she isn't interested in finding them as much as making a spectacle out of herself. Why else would she unwaveringly believe a cop fakeclaim throughout two days and still say she wants to hammer? She's posted a number of things that are just illogical or straight up scummy. Since yesterday. Remember when she said "you don't want to find out why you don't want to lynch me?" Remember when she soft claimed mason with elusive? She isn't pro-town. Ignore Ellie. I will vote her when we get the whole vikingfan situation under control.

Why else indeed?

[Ellie]

You shifted from your defensiveness to critical lethargy after it was pointed out. Thus, "I don't really care." But you have shown lethargy toward actual scumhunting for longer than that.

[Ellie]

ABR's last post makes me think my personality is just rubbing him wrong. Which probably isn't alignment-indicative.

[Ellie]

vikingfan: If you want to avoid being lynched today, share your reads - not just on ABR.

[Ellie]

I think I can accept the stuff on ABR (like how odd it is to forget a role, and how you've never had that issue). However, all of the scenarios you give for VF are pretty unlikely. Werewolves scenario is most plausible, but I don't think a town-aligned vig would shoot VF for the same reason the doctor protected him: nobody in their right mind attacks a claimed town-cop until the next day when they have nothing to show for their role. But the mafia wouldn't have nk targeted the person they roleblock, that's just a silly waste of abilities.

Agreed, but werewolves or SK seems plausible enough.

[Ellie]

There is no evidence for or against werewolves except for vikingfan's claim. There is also no evidence that if an SK exists they killed pisskop. It could equally have been a town vig.

[Ellie]

There was a mafia & werewolf setup only two large normals back. NY 178. So no, these are assumptions you are making because you want to call vikingfan scum, not facts.

[Ellie]

I wonder if Cheetory isn't putting on a show for the town

I wonder if Cheetory isn't putting on a show for the town

What're you even trying to say here?

The coding seemed flashy; over the top even. I'm glad to see it got dropped after a couple posts.

Math and goodmorning, what do you think of this interaction?

[Ellie]

He didn't say it wasn't possible, he just said it's less common. Be reasonable here, we don't need cloudy junk in everyone's head throwing off reads, which is what posts like this are.

Then there is no logic to ABR's post. "Less common but literally just happened" tells us nothing about how ika chose to design

his

game. Therefore it should not be used as an argument. (And you calling this "cloudy junk" and "throwing off reads" is off.)

[Ellie]

ABR: VF's alignment will be confirmed tomorrow. It is optimal to lynch him then. You know this. I know this. We have flipped scum and 2000 posts of interactions to work from. There is nothing stopping us from lynching some other scum today.

[Ellie]

And again, ika is exactly the kind of moderator who would include that mechanic in the game. So the argument that it is unlikely is bogus.

[Ellie]

If you are scum and see there were two kills and know who your team shot (prob Boon) why invent a third kill?

That

is overcomplicating

Once again. If scum, he gained nothing from inventing that part of his claim except another way for him to be caught.

[Ellie]

Setup design is not statistical.

The existence of a werewolf faction has as much to do with those twelve games as the result of a coin flip has to do with previous coin flips. Base setup spec on knowledge of ika, or stop speculating.

[Ellie]

How will we learn VF's alignment tomorrow, exactly?

Because unless the scum team is stupid -- and Boonskiies' death suggests they are not -- they will not leave an unroleblocked cop alive to check them.

[Ellie]

I really, really don't get it. Starting to wonder if I'm crazy, but what I'm saying seems self-evidently true. Math/Shinobi/GM/others, am I crazy?

[Ellie]

From, not to.

Heh.

[Ellie]

Your emotional involvement and the fact that you seem to be arguing against

me

instead of my arguments is what is confusing me so much about you right now.

[Ellie]

Like, how does 2325 counter my point that setups are not statistical? And what does that have to do with me believing VF, except that his claim is possible?

[Ellie]

I argue that it is unbelievable because he would

know

he was inventing another killer. Not because of site meta.

I do not invent a werewolf team. I say something very specific:

Agreed, but werewolves or SK seems plausible enough.

which you tried to argue against using statistics, when statistics have no bearing on setup spec.

I fight all day for what I believe, which is that vikingfan has a good chance of being town despite the case against him and that

even if he is scum it is bad strategy to lynch him today

.

You somehow turned fighting for what I believe into "pushing an agenda."

So yeah, either I'm crazy or something is up here.

[Ellie]

Mods base their setups on previous games. ika isn't creative enough to even write flavor or an original title for this game, do you think he will go out of his way and do something outlandish that 12 or a hundred other mods wouldn't do? You think ika will step outside of the mold? You're wrong. You're pushing buttons, and it's not working on TSO, nor will it with me.

Considering ika plays on other forums where the mechanic is common and probably wanted to try it here? Uh, yes.

[Ellie]

I've never played a large normal. What are the odds we have both a tracker and a cop?

This is your third post in the game. You found it hard to believe there was both a cop and tracker in one game, but didn't bat an eye at the below?

Think of the odds of the town trying to lynch the cop on day 1, then the doctor gets killed on N1 while the cop is blocked, while the doctor has a loud modifier that doesn't appear upon his death, preventing a kill from a third source, who has so far remained completely undetected by the flips.

hahahahahaha

Nice try, scumbag.

...I don't get what your point even is with this.

[Ellie]

also UNVOTE: , VOTE: TSO if cheetory is V/LA

[Ellie]

I feel like ABR is pushing my buttons and this argument definitely requires input from someone else before I go crazy.

[Ellie]

Does ABR play like this as scum? I've seen him this engaged with a game... once. And he was town. But I have limited meta. And I know I'm biased but his posts are so dumb.

[Ellie]

I don't even.

town suspecting the cop and forcing him to claim on day 1,

Happens all the time.

the doctor gets killed on N1

Happens when you have skilled scum who are good at role reads and the doctor was silly enough to crumb.

while the cop is roleblocked

Happens when you have a scum roleblocker. Obviously.

while the doctor has a loud modifier that doesn't appear upon his death,

The loud modifier was something Wake came up with. It would have flipped if it were a modifier: As the wiki article ika quoted earlier states, normal doctors can use this mechanic without any modifiers.

preventing a kill from a third source

Who else is Boon going to protect?

who has so far remained completely undetected by the flips.

Because we've only lynched once?

So yeah, there is only one thing that's hard to believe here: That he was told about being protected. But I think ika might well have included something like that, and

even if not it is still bad strategy to lynch VF today

.

Holy shit.

[Ellie]

Holy mother of god. I'm putting ABR on mute for the sake of my blood pressure.

[Ellie]

I'm going to laugh so hard if you flip town, ABR. As far as puzzles go, my play here is not hard to figure out.

[Ellie]

If this was all a strategy to rile me up for some reason, you succeeded. Good job, I guess

[Ellie]

What is wrong with my reason for suspecting TSO? That seems like a discussion that could be productive, let's go there.

[Ellie]

This is some kind of horrible /r/theredpill thing isn't it. I swear, my next alt is going to be a man.

[Ellie]

This list of townreads. "You" is referring to Mathblade. I'm not reaching here, this isn't sexism, this is her entire strategy. It's sick.

Yeah, this is getting too fucking weird for me. I decline to interact with you any more today. Good luck with your endeavors, wherever they lead.

[Ellie]

Cheetory, 1361. I wasn't softing masons, though I realized as soon as I posted that people were going to take it that way. Overall I think that was kind of funny?

[Ellie]

Can you elaborate on this?

I think ika likes weird mechanics, and probably wouldn't care that the wiki says it's frowned on for doc targets to be informed.

I'm more or less here now. Can you talk with me about why you're unvoting me here? It's probably something simple, I just want to know exactly why because I want to understand where you're coming from right now.

I'm unvoting you because you said you were V/LA and I want to lynch TSO. You're in my notes as UTR-scum-ish.

[Ellie]

So you were making a joke? What was the joke supposed to be?

It wasn't a joke.

[Ellie]

And FTR, I only townread GM because Grib was obvious town. Sorry if that breaks your pattern.

[Ellie]

nominates MathBlade for kodak moment scummie

This page is my favorite page.

[Ellie]

We now return to your regularly scheduled programming about how TSO is scum.

[Ellie]

@Ellie

, my read on you is currently super muddled and your explanations feel like they're intentionally trying to keep me at arm's length here.
I don't really want to lend credence to whatever the fuck ABR is talking about, but there are arguably strange things you've done this game that I don't understand.
I really need you to explain that interaction around elusive on D1 in a more clear way and I'd also like for you to talk at me about you being willing to vote for Viking at L-1 while saying that you think he's town.
Walk me through the thought processes in both situations.

I've played with elusive before, as she guessed earlier.

And while I understand why the comment about hammering Viking would bother you... I didn't just say 'no' because I have no explanation or wanted to be obstinate. I said 'no' because it would be dumb to answer. That hasn't changed. If you think it through, maybe you can work out the answer for yourself.

[Ellie]

If vikingfan would just answer my question about his response pm at the start of this day/last night, I would be more inclined to lean Ellie and probably move my vote.

Erm, ignoring the part about me, why would that make you unvote VF? The case against him doesn't rest on that, and he could pretty easily BS something as scum anyway. Explain.

[Ellie]

Setup design is not statistical.

The existence of a werewolf faction has as much to do with those twelve games as the result of a coin flip has to do with previous coin flips. Base setup spec on knowledge of ika, or stop speculating.

While events can be

independent

(what you described with the coin flips), in the world of probability

independence is actually vital to determining chance.

For any given independent event, there is still a probability of it happening.

So let's assume that there are wolves. If ABR is correct in saying the last 12 games did not have wolves, then the rate of wolves is 1/13. That makes P(Wolves) = 1/13 = 0.07692, roughly 7.69% of Normal games have a Wolf faction.

Converse

ly, there is a 12/13 chance that there is not a werewolf faction. P(Wolf^c) = 12/13 = .92307, or about 92.31% of the time. For any independent event, the probability of it happening n times is P(event)^n, so the probability of us

not

having wolves is P(Wolf^c)^13 (Since this will be the 13th game in the series of events) which is .34002, or ~34%.

But, here's the catch. It dawned on me that this happens only when events are random.

If ika did this setup 100% randomly, then my statistics are accurate. However, it is unlikely and unreasonable to assume randomness in a game that is created and operated at the leisure of a mod, therefore I must reject my probabilities based on reasons of bias.

In other words, arguing over the

chances

of this happening is pointless from a statistics standpoint. However, it is

completely valid

to say something to the degree of, "I find it hard to believe vf's story because it just seems so unlikely." It's okay to say that because, since the game was designed with a natural bias, everything is of opinion and vf cannot prove his case and nobody can disprove the case.

As previously stated, the point is that the probability of a random setup including a werewolf faction is completely outweighed by the probability of ika including a mechanic by which protection targets are informed, which would mean there

must

be either a werewolf faction or serial killer. ABR and others keep returning the conversation to the wrong issue, the statistics of werewolf factions, when that has nothing whatsoever to do with vikingfan's alignment.

[Ellie]

shimmers

I hope I don't make you want to replace out, but there was a lot of drama and not much chance to talk when you left. I would probably replace out so you don't have to if that were the case.

[Ellie]

This alt identity has some quirks.

[Ellie]

Okies, aren't you glad I wrote those fan fics? <3 I'm happy you're here and eventually I will be able to have an alt with *quirks* and not alt slip two seconds after making it.

Never had someone right fanfic about me before O_O

I made this alt partly out of curiosity, and partly to see what it was like to play without having a reputation as a certain kind of player. I'm kind of missing my reputation at this point, though.

We should talk after the game, but I wouldn't feel comfortable PMing another player during the game even if ika approved it. Old habits.

[Ellie]

I still think MathBlade looks town,

but

I'm getting more and more concerned with the fact she won't acknowledge that vikingfan dies tonight if he's town.

[Ellie]

If vikingfan would just answer my question about his response pm at the start of this day/last night, I would be more inclined to lean Ellie and probably move my vote.

Erm, ignoring the part about me, why would that make you unvote VF? The case against him doesn't rest on that, and he could pretty easily BS something as scum anyway. Explain.

But that's the thing, if his PM really said nothing about his research, I don't think it would make sense for him to know about getting shot and healed but then not say "No Result." Plus, I also want to hear from him the truth about his position, all together in one post. I want him to make a case, all he's been doing in response to pressure is trying to throw attention to ABR.

Okay. It's just, do you have any strong reads? You're waffling all over the issue of which of me/VF is scum. If he answers one question from you, you will vote me. Since VF and I are both town, I'd prefer for you to actually commit one way or another.

[Ellie]

pisskop was squirming hard under my pressure. I don't think he would have picked that time to strongly defend a partner. That said, NJ can probably be unaligned with pisskop and still scum.

[Ellie]

^ not reading the thread

[Ellie]

Dang, disappear for a day and the page explodes.

I can't WAIT until I flip town just to shut up ABR at this point. And I'm looking forward to a good "Bah! Told you so!" post too.

Ozgin, what exactly do you need? I already reported I am a Cop with the ability to investigate one player per night and will find out if they are protown or not. If something happens where I don't get a result, then the result is unknown. I also received a PM last night informing me my investigation on Shinobi came back as unknown and that I was attacked last night but was saved. Given that pisskop was a mafia RB, it's not a huge jump that he blocked me from my investigation. I have no idea what else you need.

ABR is just plain distracting the game right now to be honest. I need to do an ISO on pisskop and NJ and that will be coming up soon, and I'm still amazed that NJ is not coming under serious pressure for the scummy hammer yesterday. TSO is giving me townie vibes at present and while Ellie's defense of me is well-deserved, I'm not altogether sure she's not scum.

Think about it this way. Scum knows I'm town and will flip that way when I die probably tonight. It makes good sense to defend me so as to look more townie the next day and ellie's play as already noted has raised some definite eyebrows. but all that is for a future day.

Could you post a sentence or two about each player & your read on them please?