NY 168: (GAME OVER) The Mod is Dead, Fire and Ice Edition

[mastin2]

Oh, hey, I forgot I actually signed up for this.

Content in a bit. (Consider this my confirm for the moment.)

[mastin2]

Ah, the details are coming back to me now! Jacob asked me to play, I said yes, and so here we are some time later with the playerlist as it is.

And now that we're here...I have to say...

...What the

hell

was I thinking? If this game was advertised as being multiscum, I never read enough to have caught that, but now that we're here, it's clear that it is. And I

hate

being town in multiscum games (and, yes, I am town; I kinda townslipped in my last post accidentally so I'm basically going to be rambling the whole game ), simply because my scumdar takes a ton of calibration to lock in. Still, though, if this Fire and Ice game is like the open (I'll double-check the rules to see if it is) at all, then that's a promising sign considering how well my last one went. 19 players likely means 3 each, for 6 total, and I'll be looking for that many.

Anyway, this is basically my intro-post. I'll get to reading things and hopefully lock onto some scum. (Don't expect anything stellar, though. Last time, I got good because I replaced in. I'm a far more mediocre player when playing from the start, and only elevate to scumhunting-pseudo-god when replacing in or after enough time has passed that I can mimic the effect. Basically, when playing from the start, I've got a switch flipped to the off position, called "sheep me". Right now, "sheep me" is flipped off; you shouldn't be doing it. When I get my head into the game, I'll let you know when the switch has been flipped and you should follow. )

[mastin2]

cool

, confirming

Vote: Maxous

.

Guess who just scumslipped being Ice?

[mastin2]

Garmr's town.
I think Slandaar is too.

vote: ArcAngel9

What took you so long to get in here?

True and (probably) true, but that doesn't mean you are.

(In actuality, if Maxous is scum at all [meh], my actual read on him would be Fire, not Ice.)

Yuni was kind enough to eliminate the RVS stage this game by scumclaiming their first post. You should oblige and vote them.

Actually, Yuni claimed mislynch bait in their first post. I realize the two

look

similar, so I can understand the confusion, but I, being Jesus, know her alignment to be town, not scum, and that's the difference between the two.

[mastin2]

Townslip? Where?

Here. It's there if you know where to look. Once I posted that, I knew I shouldn't have posted it, 'cause it made me obvtown AGAIN, meaning I'm dead in the first two nights regardless of how accurate my reads are.

It's nice to know you've set the bar so low...

Set the bar low, be pleasantly surprised when exceeding it. Set the bar high, be utterly disappointed when not meeting it. Good philosophy in life to take.

Curious panda here why would you read him to be fire and not ice?

'Cause that's what he was last game, duh.

(Real reason: gut. )

[mastin2]

Hey mastin
Wanna get a counter wagon going?

On Bulbazak? Sure! But don't count on me staying.

Vote: Bulbazak

.

How is that a townslip?

The slip's there, if you know where to look for it. Certain individuals are more likely to figure it out than others, but it's definitely there, and quite blatantly so at that.

[mastin2]

Yunichikawowwow [7] - Garmr,

Slandaar

,

Desperado

,

Bulbazak

,

Dry-fit

,

Yiley

, JKLM

It crosses my mind that, this being a multiscum game, we're going to be bandwagon happy, since scum can and will be legitimately scumhunting. In a case like this with a wagon getting to L-3 so soon into the day, for instance, it definitely feels like 2-4 scum are here, thinking that Yunichika is opposite-scum, when in fact it's quite highly probable she's neither.

Bolded in particular are figures of interest, and italicized are minor figure of interest. (Note that doesn't mean I think the bolded are scum. I've just been keeping a much, MUCH closer eye on them than the others.)

[mastin2]

Initate Buddy Effect

Mastin is town.

Yes, but I'm not writing you off as being a cheeky scumbag yet.

You put the wagon to L-2. Consider yourself a second italicized name on there.

(It should really say something that the towniest names I see on the wagon are Garmr and JKLM. That NEVER bodes well for a wagon. )a

[mastin2]

Why aren't you considering JKLM?

Because JKLM looks to be town to me, albeit admittedly not nearly as strongly as I'd prefer him to be.

But all the bolded/italicized? Are basically null (I can maybe see Slandaar or Desp or PV reads changing, but they're figures of interest because I'm not feeling them strongly to be town like I should be), or maybe scum.

[mastin2]

'Course. Even assuming there

were

four scum on the wagon, that'd still be ~2 off of it, so let's look at the remainder.

Bulbazak [3]

- ArcAngel9, mastin 2, Yunichikawowwow

Yiley [1]

- Toomai

Toomai [1]

- Maxous

JKLM [1]

- Matias

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Not Voting [4]

- T S O, Lawrencelot, evilpacman18, OhGodMyLife

The Bulbazak wagon I'm decently certain is all town.
Maxous is a minor scumread of mine, though it's been so long since I've played with him that I really forget the towntells/scumtells I used to nail his ass. (And Maxous has probably changed them anyway, making them useless. >_<)
Toomai is basically nullish-town, emphasis on null. My gut reaction to Toomai was town, but that reaction isn't so much for Toomai's posting so much as it is people's REACTIONS to Toomai's posting.
Matias is null and likely will stay there for quite a while; I want him to establish a footing in this game so that we can get more easily acquainted. (If he doesn't get his footing, and doesn't ask for replacement, though, he'll be scum. )
Aptil is similar to Toomai. I'm guessing town, but it's just that, a wild mass guess off of literally nothing.

Leaves the Not Voting pile. Which is, y'know, basically the players who haven't checked in yet. Which, y'know. Basically means null-aside-from-refuge-in-audacity-guesses.
...But just for teh lulz, let's make a refuge-in-audacity guess

anyway

and say they're all town.


This isn't nearly solidified enough for me to flip the switch, but it's probably the fastest I've gotten to feeling like I'll be flipping it soon.

[mastin2]

@Mastin- 105 has way too many townreads for a game that is supposed to be multi-scum.

Nope! Multiscum doesn't mean "everyone's scum". It just means that there are more scum than normal. With only 19 players, that's pretty damn guaranteed to be three per faction, making six total scum.

Furthermore

, because there's six total scum, I should have ~12 townreads, which is more or less the total you come out with when you look at my post.

Honestly, I think that there's 3-5 scum on the Yunichika wagon now that I think about it (I sincerely doubt both scumreads have the entirety of their teams on there, hilarious as that may be to try ), and that the remaining 1-3 are off it. You're assuming that these numbers are arbitrary, but they're not. You're also assuming that I'm making blind assumptions, but I'm not. Of the [1] voters, the ones that stick out the most to me are Maxous and Matias. Of the Not Voters, they're basically mostly null, but I have ideas on some of them that if true would make them town, ideas I haven't followed through and researched, but which exist all the same.

[mastin2]

I don't understand the Bulb wagon . 1 vote is random . 1 vote is a sheep vote . 1 vote was a vote by other player to try and start a counter-wagon to their own wagon .
@mastin : Why do you think yuni is innocent ?

Aptil can be scum with Bulbazak, but otherwise is probably town.

To answer...it's a combination of seeing town in Yuni's posts and seeing scum scumhunting Yuni via voting her. By which, I mean, seeing her wagon, its speed, its composition, the reasoning behind voting, and everything, basically being a signature multiscum move, of scum voting her thinking she's scum, when in truth she isn't.

[mastin2]

Actually, it's the same amount of scum, just split up into multiple teams.

The only options are 4 or 6.
4 is the same as in the normal Fire & Ice, a mini-sized open. I don't see the mods doing that.
So, 6. Which given the number of players, IS a bit more than normal.

\you thinking a full HALF of the Yuni voters are scum.
Anything specific about the 5 scummiest?

Yup! Scumdriven wagon is, well...scum-driven.

And, no. Nothing specific. I've got eight names on there, and SIX of them look like they could be scum, you among them.

Do you understand the Yuni wagon, because it seems you do by inference. If you do, please explain it.

(You're still on it, PV. )

[mastin2]

Dry-fit just took a triple-hit to his chances of being town.
...AT LEAST a triple-hit, actually.

When not pressed for time, I'll explain.

[mastin2]

Really? There's at least one scum among

eight people

? This epiphany wasn't genuine at all.

Okay. So Desp being Desp, I know he's a competent player enough to do this as scum. ESPECIALLY multiscum games where a scum-him can legitimately scumhunt. But I really like his chain of posts right here, so he's on the town side of null.

I want Yuni dead so we can lynch Matias after she flips scum. His thought process is so much shallower than Mastin's, and given the game we just finished that is not something I expected to say about Matias.

Basically, this.

Also, Garmr is town because Garmr is showing a town mindset, seems to be legitimately scumhunting, and not manipulating. He's not playing a survivalistic game at all, not being conservative, not anything I'd expect of scum-in-multiscum. He's being active, he's being aggressive, he's thinking for himself, taking initiative, being proactive, and giving some actually-valuable insights. True, not impossible to come from scum, but this seems to be his town self.

By the way? Matias is showing the opposite to me. Matias seems to be half-assing his scumhunting, playing a long-term survival game. He's posting, but his posting isn't having much of an impact at all, feeling shallow and hollow overall. His posting has very little aggression, and most of what he's doing is reactive rather than proactive. His insights are similarly "meh", and are not something I'd expect from him if he were town.

To answer...it's a combination of seeing town in Yuni's posts and seeing scum scumhunting Yuni via voting her. By which, I mean, seeing her wagon, its speed, its composition, the reasoning behind voting, and everything, basically being a signature multiscum move, of scum voting her thinking she's scum, when in truth she isn't.

Uh you do realise for this to be true the people voting her must genuinely think she is scum and thus there is no reason to assume one situation over the other.

I'm not sure I understand. But yes. Scum voting Yuni probably think she's actually scum. It's painfully obvious she isn't, but scum this game are going to be scumhunting. Their scumhunting method will be different, naturally. Their scumhunting's not going to be as in-depth as town. It's going to be more shallow. It's going to be a cross between their scum selves (faking scumhunting) and town selves (real scumhunting), in that they're not going to fully believe what they're pushing, but they ARE going to be somewhat-serious and legitimate.

Also, Anti, stop lurking or I'm lynching your ass.

[mastin2]

One of Maxous and Matias is scum.

TSO. This game's multiscum. They

both

can be. (Yeah, I think they're opposite-faction scum.
Oh, and by the way, TSO just townslipped. )

[mastin2]

And, yes, I fully believe that TSO is town for the townslip. You can argue that it's easy to fake that as scum, but TSO's posting on it definitely makes it obvious. That was no act. He's town.

[mastin2]

Thoughts on Yiley and Dry-fit, Mastin?

Maybe-scum and probably-scum, respectively.

[mastin2]

Yunichikawowwow [8] - Garmr,

Slandaar

,

Desperado

,

Bulbazak

,

Dry-fit

,

Yiley

, JKLM,

PeregrineV

Bolded in particular are figures of interest, and italicized are minor figure of interest. (Note that doesn't mean I think the bolded are scum. I've just been keeping a much, MUCH closer eye on them than the others.)

Garmr and JKLM are still townreads of mine. Desp is on the town side of null. PV's at dead-ambivalent-null. Bulbazak's not a strong scumread, but is a minor one. Yiley's a scumread, but not by much. Dry-fit is a somewhat-strong scumread, but not nearly as strong as I'd prefer him to be.

Off the wagon, we've got Maxous as a minor scumread, Matias as a decent scumread, and aptil as only-scum-with-Bulbazak (otherwise, town). Antihero is null, but might be scum. (Read pending.)

AA9 and Yunichika are town, and Toomai looks that way, too. TSO is town as well. EPM and OGML are both null via lack of posts, but I'm guessing they're town despite no posting. (Aside from their confirms.)

I'm not really comfortable flipping the switch; this is mostly circumstantial analysis in an early-game scenario, where there are still too many variables to be certain of. But I'm pretty dang close to having flipped it.

[mastin2]

The point is; if someone thinks someone is scum as scum, they will do so as town because contrary to what you say scum will actually scumhunt and find the same things scummy as if they were town this is especially true this early on, later maybe you could say they fake some but page 5? nope.

Therefore in actuality all you are saying is a bunch of people genuinely think she is scum.

Actually, no. I said as much. Scum's scumhunting will be

similar

, but not identical. They're going to be prone to bias thanks to knowing who isn't opposite-scum, and it's within scum's interests to NOT be scumhunting at 100% of their ability. They're also prone to being on any wagon they know is not on them/their team, because said player--town or opposite scum, doesn't matter!--is advantageous to be lynched.

Thus. Why wagons rise on town players so easily--because both scum factions see that player as

just

scummy enough to vote, think it's possible said player could be opposite scum, and thus, that they're immune to the consequences of that wagon. Scum aren't entirely scumhunting, so scum aren't going to necessarily be voting who they think are scum. They're going to be voting who they think they can get away with voting, and Yuni's wagon SCREAMS that.

(I forgot to mention Slandaar, who's a mild scumread.)

[mastin2]

This and this immediately stick out to me as cheap grabs for town cred.

Slandaar, sure, but me, no, that was just me townslipping.

/short on time. More later.

[mastin2]

holy crap, mastin acknowledged my existence
what's going on here?

Me acknowledging your existence is a very bad thing for you, Antihero. It means that

you're not acting town

.

I think everyone currently voting Yuni is town.

This is actually quite possible! Most of my stronger scumreads are off the wagon. You, Desp, Yiley, and PV are the only figures of interest left on it. Desp is nullish-town, you're only mildly scum, Yiley could be scum but is not certainly so, and PV's an ambivalent read.

...I'm not so sure it's

probable

, given that I can still see you as scum and am still figuring out Yiley for sure.


I'm a bit worried this Dry-fit wagon will turn out the same way as the Yuni wagon, and that the names on it aren't exactly town, but I'm willing to try it out and see where it takes us.

VOTE: Dry-fit.

[mastin2]

I'm back on page nine, but need to announce V/LA 'til Tuesday, here. Sorry.

[mastin2]

Right, so this game's next on my priority list. Gimme a while to do it, though; still on page nine.

[mastin2]

So I realize I'm skipping ahead a bit, but...

Dry - Fit[6]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, Toomai

Yunichikawowwow [4]

- Slandaar, JKLM, PeregrineV, OhGodMyLife

Toomai [2]

- Maxous, Dry-fit

JKLM [2]

- Bulbazak, Garmr

Bulbazak [1]

- ArcAngel9

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Maxous [1]

- Yunichikawowwow

Not Voting [2]

- Antihero, evilpacman18,

This Dry-fit wagon feels like it's on scum, and I'll tell you why--because, contrary to the Yunichika wagon which appeared basically overnight, this one hasn't. It hasn't exploded into an L-2 wagon. Its built gradually and steadily. Furthermore, while the points against Yunichika were fairly weak and rushed (making the wagon on her unwarranted), the points against Dry-fit feel like they're more solid and grounded in reality.

Now, as a disclaimer, that doesn't necessarily mean the names on the wagon are town! (Looking at the first three, in particular, maybe others if the wagon's composition has changed over time.) But it DOES mean that it's quite probable that, at most, only one scum faction is present on his wagon.

Yeah, I realize this is a little bit arbitrary, but multiscum games DO have strong tendencies to follow these trends. A wagon on town has both scum on it, and a wagon on scum might have SOME scum on it but is mostly made up of town. A wagon on town forms overnight and with little backing, whereas a wagon on scum is more solidified and gradual to form. So while this itself is not enough to condemn Dry-fit...it DOES contribute to the pile of evidence that he is scum.

[mastin2]

It's not that Toomai called TSO town (which he is), it's that he said nothing BUT that.
Look at his ISO - he is posting just enough not to be called lurking with just enough content not be fluff posting. He gives like 1 new read per post. His pushes are weak (if existent?)
It's textbook coasting scum.

Funny you should mention that, given what I think of your posting.

You've been averaging 2 or maybe 3 reads per post yourself, but the pattern's the same as what you're describing. A couple of reads, weakly pushed if pushed at all. Just enough content to not be lurking, just enough content to not be fluff, but with absolutely no drive behind them.

So... you're already refusing to listen to my reads, and instead only choosing to acknowledge me when YOU get a name wrong on the links.
Did you really change that much from 2010? (see, I can use disarming smilies after saying bitchy things too)

Nah, but you presenting my opinion of you this way and referencing the dark age of Mastin isn't doing you any favors for ya.

I realize you've got finals to take care of, but you've been lurking your ass off this game, and I really think that you're scum because you've done literally nothing this game at all.

That is how I work. I suck at mechanics and talking and stuff but so far when I say something like that I've been right.

Call me a sucker, but I'm beginning to come around on Yiley quite potentially being town.

Random thought, which I realize isn't very probable (I realize "too obvious to be true" is a bit of a fallacy, but, really--it's too damn obvious ), but I was thinking a Dry-fit/Maxous pairing would be quite possible. (Right now, I'm not so much hunting for scumteam pairings so much as I am honing in on who the scum actually are. If I actually isoed myself to compile all my thoughts into a single place at a single time, I think I'd have a pretty dang good picture of that, so that's something I need to get done.)

Another random thought was a Matias-Slandaar scum pairing, even though neither one of them is a strong scumread and this has literally no basis at all other than being a random thought that just so happened to ping in my head. (But again. I'm not hunting scumteams, yet. I'm hunting for scum. And from there, I'll figure out the teams.)

.Since no one else mentioned it Evilpacman post was not a strong opener as it only really gave one line of thought on Jklm and looked like he was half asleep while writing it.

He WAS half-asleep, if him being awake at 3 am as he claimed is an indication of anything. It was overall null to me, but sorta leaning town just a bit.

But for really, what's your opinion on Dry-fit and his wagon?

What's YOURS?

[mastin2]

Anyway, I'm caught up, but I still have much work to do this game.

I'm obvtown off of a townslip, I'm obvtown off of my play, but that's not enough. (I have a good Bah post I REALLY want to use, but to use it requires both scum to nightkill me. ) I want to have good enough reads that both scum are basically forced to nightkill me in order to have a chance at winning the game.

(Which requires me to refine my reads. I really think I'm onto the right track, here, but things aren't solidified quite yet.)

[mastin2]

Mastin's gonna be a bitch to beat if he's scum this game, dammit.

Nah. As scum, I get nightkilled in multiscum. (Ah, Trumpet's large normal. How fond my memories of you are. Where the only lynch on scum came from the scum becoming mod-confirmed scum. And all five other scum got nightkilled, four being crosskills and one the town vig. That town seriously did not deserve to win that game. )

But yes, I'm going to be a bitch to beat, because the only hope the scum really have is getting rid of me as quickly as they can. (There's a

reason

I always, ALWAYS die within 1-2 nights of coming into the game as town in multiscum.)

[mastin2]

Get ready. He's scum this game.

Ah, Bulbazak.

Pull this stunt as town, shame on you.

Pull this stunt as scum and get away with it, shame on me.

Here's a notice for you: Sheeping mastin is a very bad idea this game. He's offered very few reads, hasn't responded to any of the things I've addressed to him even though I'm apparently his top priority, and after his catchup offers nothing but shitty wagon analysis.

A part of me wonders if Dry-fit and Bulbazak are on the scumteam and the scumteams have daytalk, with them legitimately thinking I'm scum. That part of me, however, is called "my ego", and for the sake of retaining some semblance of humbleness, I'm forced to nix that theory.

I suck at self motivating right now so I'm just gonna blatantly sheep Mastin until further notice.

Much as I appreciate (and actually quite love) people sheeping me, I don't remember you having this much respect for my abilities as town. So, spill the beans; what gives?

But for really, what's your opinion on Dry-fit and his wagon?

What's YOURS?

I asked first.

*points to vote*
Your turn.

L-1
Someone get off now.
Mastin I am looking at you.

You're quite correct, the L-1 wagon IS concerning, but aside from maaaaaaybe-Desp (but not really), maybe-Matias, somewhat-OGML, and PeregrineV, there aren't any names on it I can realistically see as being scum. And even then, most of those names aren't scumreads. The wagon looks town-driven.

As an aside--the JKLM feels like a counterwagon on town to a dominant wagon on scum (Dry-fit).

[mastin2]

Also, I ran through my iso looking for coherent scumreads. This is what I came up with:

-Maxous scum. (Fire?)
-Bulbazak scum?
{Slandaar, Desperado, Bulbazak, Dry-Fit, Yiley, PeregrineV}
Figures of interest, Yunichika wagon.

-Aptil scum with Bulbazak, or town.
-Desp null-townish.
-Matias scum.
-Antihero scum.
-Slandaar scum?
-Dry-fit strongly scum.
-Yiley town?

I need to run through it again, on the opposite side of things. (Townreads.) And look at the remainder. Also, these reads might need revision, depending on my Slandaar and Matias reads. (And to some extent, Bulbazak.) Oh, and excluded is the PV read, which is nullish-scum, better read pending. Also excluded is my recent concern for OGML, though he's probably nullish-town. (I'm not sure, yet.)

Basically, while I have an idea of where I'm going, nothing's solidified at all. At some moments, I feel like I've got way too damn many scumreads. At other times, far too few. I can't flip the switch 'til I get Goldi-locked on.

[mastin2]

Tell me how this guy is a town wagon again.

Because he is?

I might not be an expert at JKLM. But I'd like to think I'm not incompetent at reading him, and he looks like town.

Memories of Town!Mastin being more purposeful and direct with his posting.

This is the bit where, normally, I'd have some sort of witty response. But I thought it over a bit, and...well. I actually couldn't think of anything. Which means, the comment was seriously right. (That's right. You can tell a comment is an Armor-Piercing-Question when MASTIN is left unable to muster enough will to include a smiley in his response. )

While my posts have been full of purpose and directly attacking the matters, I realized that...well. They're too vague. I mean...to ME. My iso on my thoughts is crystal-clear. I've been quite explicit. To others, I'm wondering about that. I thought it was pretty clear, but now I'm not so sure they are. I'm not going to go in-depth about everything, but I

do

need to give more than I've given.

Not right now, though. My reads are too much in-flux. I need to stabilize them somewhat, get things nailed down, as it were. Give me a bit to work this out.

I agree with most of this, but Matias scum? Please enlighten me on what you are thinking.

Funnily enough, this is one of the only reads I actually HAVE elaborated on. But it literally is a "Matias scum?" right now, in that I'm not so sure of it anymore. Buuuuut, the reason I thought it is because of this--

Also, Garmr is town because Garmr is showing a town mindset, seems to be legitimately scumhunting, and not manipulating. He's not playing a survivalistic game at all, not being conservative, not anything I'd expect of scum-in-multiscum. He's being active, he's being aggressive, he's thinking for himself, taking initiative, being proactive, and giving some actually-valuable insights. True, not impossible to come from scum, but this seems to be his town self.

By the way? Matias is showing the opposite to me. Matias seems to be half-assing his scumhunting, playing a long-term survival game. He's posting, but his posting isn't having much of an impact at all, feeling shallow and hollow overall. His posting has very little aggression, and most of what he's doing is reactive rather than proactive. His insights are similarly "meh", and are not something I'd expect from him if he were town.

[mastin2]

Maxous was iced, he was a

Fire Mafia Goon

Would

so

have been better if he were Ice-scum, but I'm content knowing that my guess of Maxous being Fire-Scum is correct. Now I just need to prove I'm not Ice-scum in order to be conftown!

(Butyeah. I need to read up on things.)

Honestly, my guess is both factions were hunting the other faction. OGML wasn't obvtownning it up this game, nor was Maxous particularly townread. But I'm not exactly sure what that means, and on my limited access, reviewing the thread is going to be hard. I remember comments on one or both of the two that are potentially important, but not a clue where they'd be.

Vote Aptil

And here's the scum on aptil.

On a not-so-unrelated note, Toomai might actually be scum.

Vote: Aptil

It was a crappy hammer.

Now, who had Maxous pegged as scum day1?

Hello, ice. My name's warm. I'm your enemy, along with an enemy of fire who is also your enemy. We'd probably get along just fine if not for you being scum.

Well. No reason given from Aptil to vote Dry-fit, this is certainly interesting. TSO, I'd like to know why you seem to dismiss that hammer. Possible maf partner noted.
Oh my gosh Maxous

was

maf. I feel so happy.

VOTE: Aptil, and he better give me a good reason why he's inno if he wants to change my vote.

Hello Ice Scum.

If you were actually town, I'd expect that sort of inquiry to be aimed at PeregrineV.


Now, mind you, my reads do need re-evaluation. But my scumreads on Bulbazak and PeregrineV both remain, sooooooo...

VOTE: Bulbazak.

[mastin2]

Uhg. Really don't feel like posting right now, but I'm fairly certain it's already been two days, so I don't exactly have a choice.

What inquiry would that be, Scumstin?

The bit about an Ice scum player voting Aptil and commenting on Maxous's nightkill. You called out Yunichika for it, when PV did the exact same thing--yet you let it slide by from him.

@ Bulb: Which team is Mastin on?

I already claimed:
Warm.

Yuni, TSO, and Toomai are all town on this page

Yiley is scummy. "Hey guys, don't worry about the hammer, we really need to go on the attack and not be so defensive!!!" /does nothing

You're gonna need to explain Toomai-town/Yiley-scum to me, since I got the opposite impression.

Also, random note. NJAC, I realize I misread you last game, but I'm reading you scum this game, too, through a combo of Antihero's (lack of) posting and your entrance lacking...hmm, not sure what's the word. Heart? Best word I've got--your posting lacks the heart I'd expect from a town player.

[mastin2]

Derp. Forgot about this game.

I have no interest in starting a necromancy war when his flip completely suits your agenda. I get you've been lining me up since d1, but here isn't where you'll do it.

Ah, yes, necromancy war. You mean that I asked you yesterday numerous times to explain your vote which you failed to do because you didn't want to debate your vote with me. Then once he flips town you cry foul because it is unfair to force you to explain it now as obviously the reasoning is wrong, even though you had multiple opportunities yesterday to do so which would have prevented the whole situation but because he flipped town I am in the wrong.

VOTE: TSO

Lynch this.

Yeeeeeeeeeah, thinkin' Slandaar's scum from this and TSO's not. TSO's handling of the situation is much better than Slandaar's.

Scum;
Yuni/Toomai/TSO/EPM

Then theres a few mehish, those 4 are the big ones though.

I can listen to cases on Toomai and EPM. Not so for Yuni or TSO.

I'll take another look at Desp's reasoning when my head's more in the game, but I like his take on Toomai from a skim.

aptil [4] - Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, PeregrineV, Matias

I need to take another nice, good, long look at everyone (not just the five [

Mod: that number needs fixing

] listed here) who's voted aptil, because this wagon having built so fast and lingered so long is once again a very bad sign. (In particular, the towniest name on the wagon right now is Garmr. I'm scumreading Bulbazak, remember having a scumread on PV, and remember having a bad read on Matias, too.)

Mastin you mention before pretty much through out day 1 that

-Aptil scum with Bulbazak, or town.

So what do you think linked aptil to bulb and what was the major factor that changed it.

aptil's (relative) lack of experience (and my judgment on his current skill level as a player) combined with his slightly-out-of-place defense of Bulbazak. Nothing's changed it; the only way I can see aptil as scum is if he's scum with Bulbazak. And even if Bulbazak is scum, it's no guarantee of aptil being scum. It's just that if Bulbazak isn't scum, aptil isn't scum either. For the record, yes, I currently lean towards Bulb being scum and aptil being town.

[mastin2]

2. Explain how I handled the necromancy-cum-accusation better than Slandaar.

Simply, really. Your attitude towards the whole thing?

"What's done is done. I was wrong, okay?!? Let's move on."

Slandaar's attitude? Goad you into the necromancy war. And despite ultimately knowing it's a bad idea, he succeeded. Falling to the temptation was another sign of the town attitude, and your frustration throughout the whole ordeal was apparent. Slandaar was provoking you into a losing battle. A necromancy war will never end well for the town player, because the town player entering it has already been proven wrong by the flip, and wants to move on.

Basically, you reacted reasonably and sensibly to the whole affair, but were baited into going further by Slandaar, whose entire request was unreasonable. Yes, giving reasons on the day is good, and yes, not giving them before the flip is bad. But entering into a necromancy war about the reasons after the player the reasons are on has flipped town is beating a dead horse, and a town-Slandaar would know better than to do that.

Thus, your frustration makes you town; Slandaar's manipulation makes him scum. He wasn't entering that debate in an attempt to scumhunt. He was entering that debate with the intention of painting you badly to mislynch you.

Yunichikawowwow [8]

- Garmr, Slandaar, Desperado, Bulbazak, Dry-fit, Yiley, JKLM, PeregrineV

Who is scum on the wagon?

The only truly town names on the wagon are Garmr and JKLM, plus the flipped Dry-fit. Any of the remaining five, I can see being scum. I lean against Yiley being scum because I've liked Yiley's posting. (Heck if I remember why.) I sorta lean against Desperado, though I'll probably need to investigate his multiscum play some more to confirm. Leaving?
{Slandaar, Bulbazak, PeregrineV}. And, yes. You're scum. Bulb's scum. PV's someone I think is quite likely Ice-scum. So there's the scum on the wagon.

JKLM [5]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous

This wagon has at least 3 scum.

I'm not sure about the number, but you're right, it sucks. The only truly town name on there is Garmr. Evil's null to me; I don't really remember him as being town or scum either way. Toomai was a townread D1, but I'm leaning scum off of D2. Bulbazak's scum, and so is Maxous.

Know something I don't? Why the strong defense of Mastin?

Actually, yes, he does; NJAC was made aware of what I was going through in a recently-completed Newbie. (To keep a long story short--limited access during vacation, a grandmother who said vacation was for visiting being put in the hospital, and realizing I was suffering from depression even before the vacation.) But no, that doesn't justify his strong defense of me; there's a damn-good reason I'm scumreading NJAC.

This game is so slow. Ugh.

Admittedly a bit concerning at such low activity levels (the holidays are over, so things should be picking up, but aren't yet), but rushing the day as you seem so eager to do is also bad.

Well, you're misreading me again, and I'm again disagreeing with some of your reads. That doesn't make you scum in my eyes though, just null.

I'm also interested in your case on Bulbazak, I saw some kind of OMGUS on D1 from your part and it's not clear to me why you think Bulba's vote on aptil makes him scum, but Garmr and Yuni's votes on aptil go unobserved to you.

Oh, really? I'm null, despite your heavy defense of me? Yeah, not buying it.

As for Bulbazak. Timestamps are important. I was scumreading him before he scumread me. If anyone's OMGUS'ing, it's him to me, not me to him.

[mastin2]

vote: ArcAngel9

What took you so long to get in here?

I could be wrong, but I vaguely remember TSO inheriting AA9's slot.

At the very least, TSO isn't fire-scum. Look at Maxous's interactions with the slot; that is

not

scum bussing a scumbuddy.

Edit:

Nevermind; TSO started with the game. However, statement stands--both RachMarie (AA9's actual replacement)

and

TSO are unlikely to be partners, because Maxous's later TSO posts don't look like a scum interacting with a scumbuddy anyway. So, statement stands.

Speaking of, Bulba gives me a bad gut feeling in general, #63 especially seems disingenuous.

This, however, is quite possibly scum distancing a scumbuddy.

For what it's worth--don't think Maxous is scum with Matias, either. Toomai is possible, but neither probable nor improbable.

- Garmr: His first post was really comfortable(tonally), no sign of scum caution or nerves to it - and was a big difference to his early play in a mini normal I was in with him recently (in which he was scum). There is a massive difference here between this game and that game.

-Slandaar: I don't feel like he would of written #18 as scum, not a strong read but eh. (since then, his play has been ok)

- ArcAngel: What I was suspecting about Arc was that she delayed starting the game because she was strategising with her buddies pre-game first (since I happened to see her post elsewhere without confirming here) but her complete lack of activity since has blown that theory out of the water.
- Desperado: I liked how he was pro-active and agressive in pushing the Yuni wagon early, as I think scum would of voted and sat back at the point.
- Aptil: Yeah, his post being weak was the reason I was meh on him.
- JKLM: I liked him early because his posts were full of aggression and conviction

I'm also considering Slandaar being fire for this, but it's something I need to analyze some more in detail to figure out for sure.

T S O - going nullish, not explaining Dry-Fit scum is getting tiresome and little other commentary. #281 comes across as towny though
Bulbazak - seems town sans dodgy vote on JKLM(early push was weak)
Antihero (Lawrencelot) - ??
Matias - leaning scum
Desperado - town I think. Only hard-pusher of Dry-Fit. Putting his neck on the line.
evilpacman18 *- leaning town
JKLM - not so sure atm
OhGodMyLife *- ??
mastin2 - leaning scum. Bad Dry-fit push, bad attack on Bulba and way too much fluff. Memories of Town!Mastin being more purposeful and direct with his posting.
PeregrineV *- felt like he was townish earlier but bad dry-fit vote.
Garmr - town
aptil - pfft ??
YuniChikako - town
ArcAngel9 *- ??
Slandaar - town
Yiley - town-ish? he should post thoughts on something.
Toomai - scummy
Dry-fit - idk?

Here's another one. Bulbazak is not someone I'd think he'd have as a townread off of the content he posted, which is one reason I'm thinking Bulbazak might be a buddy. I'm thinking that

if

Toomai is scum, it's opposite-faction (Ice) to him. Same goes for Matias. PeregrineV for that matter.

But I'm actually really liking that Slandaar-Bulbazak conspiracy theory of mine right now.

Yunichikawowwow [8]

-

Garmr

,

Slandaar

, Desperado,

Bulbazak

,

Dry-fit

, Yiley,

JKLM

, PeregrineV

Bulbazak [3]

- ArcAngel9, mastin 2, Yunichikawowwow

Yiley [1]

- Toomai

Toomai [1]

- Maxous

JKLM [1]

- Matias

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Not Voting [4]

- T S O, Lawrencelot, evilpacman18, OhGodMyLife

Keep coming back to this. The Bulbazak wagon I'm quite certain is all town. The Yunichika wagon is going to have two or three scum on it, most likely. Which leaves 3-4 off. Of those voting, we've got one confirmed in Maxous. Matias I need a reread on, aptil's town, and Toomai's a mild scumread. Which leaves anywhere from 0-2 scum in the Not Voting pile. (Depending on Matias and Toomai's alignments.) TSO's town, OGML's confirmed to be town, which leaves Lawrencelot (Antihero/NJAC) and Evilpacman18.

Basically, I'm looking at Bulbazak and Slandaar for fire-scum on the wagon, PV as Ice-scum on the wagon, and two ice-scum off the wagon--focusing on NJAC and Toomai, with a need to analyze Matias and evilpacman18. (Also a need to analyze Desp and Yiley, despite townreading both.)

In other words, a scumteam callout of

{Maxous, Bulb, Slandaar}

and

{PeregrineV, Toomai, NJAC}

.

However, this is just from the one wagon analyzed to death and a general outlook on the gamestate. I still need to look at the other wagons and cross-reference with isos of other players. (For instance, I haven't isoed Bulb or Slandaar to see if the Maxous connection is a probable pairing, or for that matter, if their interactions with one another make for a probable pairing. Off the top of my head, however, I don't recall any interaction which makes the pairing look doubtful.)

Dry - Fit[5]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O

Yunichikawowwow [4]

- Slandaar, JKLM, PeregrineV, OhGodMyLife

Yiley [2]

- Toomai, Garmr

Toomai [2]

- Maxous, Dry-fit

Bulbazak [1]

- ArcAngel9

Desperado [1]

- aptil

JKLM [1]

- Bulbazak

Maxous [1]

- Yunichikawowwow

Not Voting [2]

- Antihero, evilpacman18,

This, for instance, needs to be addressed. TSO's town. But both Desperado and Yiley were on this Dry-fit wagon AND the Yunichika wagon before it. They're townreads, but I'm concerned about them from this alone, and the lack of obviously-visible scum. Matias is, again, someone I need to analyze, because he looks like the most probable name for scum, and I need to re-evaluate my read on him to be sure.

Also, there's probably one or two scum lingering on the Yunichika wagon, which again is why I'm looking at Slandaar and PeregrineV.

Dry - Fit[6]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, Toomai

Yunichikawowwow [4]

- Slandaar, JKLM, PeregrineV, OhGodMyLife

Toomai [2]

- Maxous, Dry-fit

JKLM [2]

- Bulbazak, Garmr

Bulbazak [1]

- ArcAngel9

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Maxous [1]

- Yunichikawowwow

Not Voting [2]

- Antihero, evilpacman18,

This as the first peak of the wagon gives a potential answer in Toomai, but it's again something I need to follow through on.

Dry - Fit[8]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM

JKLM [3]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai

Toomai [2]

- Maxous, Dry-fit

Yunichikawowwow [1]

- Slandaar

Bulbazak [1]

- ArcAngel9

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Maxous [1]

- Yunichikawowwow

Not Voting [2]

- Antihero, evilpacman18,

Here's another concern. While there are potential Ice-scum on the Dry-fit wagon, I don't really see anyone on the wagon that I've got as a realistic Fire-scum candidate. I can take another look at Maxous's reads and crossreference nulls/towns to be sure of things, but basically, this is one of my main concerns as far as my Bulb/Slandaar theory goes. I seriously will need to look at this area, in-context, to see how things were going down at that point.

Dry - Fit[8]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM

JKLM [5]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous

Toomai [2]

- Dry-fit

Bulbazak [1]

- ArcAngel9

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Maxous [1]

- Yunichikawowwow

TSO [1]

- Slandaar

Not Voting [1]

- Antihero

Honestly, this begs the question. Dry-fit wasn't scum. Why was there a counter-wagon to him forming? My best guess is that one or more of the other wagons in the previous votecount (Toomai/Yunichika/Bulbazak/Desperado/Maxous) was on scum, and that they wanted to ensure that the lynch was guaranteed to--if not on town--at least not be on their faction of scum. In particular, I'm thinking about the Toomai and Bulbazak wagons. Probably not for the same faction, but both having a significant chance of being FROM a faction.

As previously-stated, the JKLM wagon is quite likely to have more than one scum on it. Bulbazak/Toomai are my best guesses. Bulb as Fire and Toomai as Ice.

Dry - Fit[10]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM, Yunichikawowwow, aptil

[LYNCH]

JKLM [5]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous

Toomai [1]

- Dry-fit

Bulbazak [1]

- RachMarie

TSO [1]

- Slandaar

Not Voting [1]

- Antihero

My main concern is the utter lack of Fire candidates on the wagon, not to mention, how I've only got one strong Ice candidate on there. I'm not going to arbitrarily assume the wagon must have some number of scum; it's fully possible the scum wanted to avoid it (or if not, coincidentally ended up mostly/entirely avoiding it anyway), and assuming there must be some number of scum on the wagon is bound to fail. However...at the same time? Assuming there

isn't

some number of scum on the wagon is equally as naive, when generally, there will be. This is where circumstances become really, REALLY important, and basically, this is a wagon that I'm going to be continually coming back to and re-analyzing as we get new pieces of info. Right

now

, off of what I've got, my best guess is that, yes, against the odds, this wagon was mostly town. But I still need to investigate all the same.

Yunichikawowwow [4]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, PeregrineV,

Toomai [2]

- aptil, Yiley

Bulbazak [1]

- mastin2

Yunichikawowwow [1]

- Matias

This is a scum-driven wagon, too. I realize that it might be a bit unlikely for the majority of the wagon to be scum, but that wagon on Yunichika is not town. I'm going to need to look to see all the people who voted her, since I don't entirely trust the VCs to have all of them.

This is all preliminary analysis. As is evident, it's basically phase one; I need to put a lot more work into it to form a better conclusion. It'll have to do for now, though, because I've got other obligations to attend to.

[mastin2]

Yep. Fairly certain NJAC's scum.

There's the crap again. What conclusion have you reached? NONE. I just see you constantly saying that you need to reread, reanalyze, do ISOs and the like. Instead of that why don't you just go and reread, reanalyze and do the ISOs before posting? It's like you are pretending to be scumhunting, but that post is actually a waste of time to read.

Well, you're misreading me again, and I'm again disagreeing with some of your reads. That doesn't make you scum in my eyes though, just null.

I'm also interested in your case on Bulbazak, I saw some kind of OMGUS on D1 from your part and it's not clear to me why you think Bulba's vote on aptil makes him scum, but Garmr and Yuni's votes on aptil go unobserved to you.

Oh, really? I'm null, despite your heavy defense of me? Yeah, not buying it.

What do you expect me to say? That you're town to me? You're null. Period. My "defense" on you, as you put it, is just me not buying the case Bulba made on you. But it doesn't inmediately clears you man. Should another sound case arise on you and I'll still consider it.

I actually

have

reached conclusions. I've got a ton of townreads,

and

a preliminary callout on the entirety of both scumteams:
{Maxous, Bulb, Slandaar} and {PeregrineV, Toomai, NJAC}.

That's anything BUT "no conclusions".

The thing about it is, though, that it's only preliminary. I've already done analysis and iso-work--that's how I've gotten this far. But I need to do more, to get more solid conclusions. I've reached the point where I've gathered enough evidence to have a hypothesis, so to speak. Now comes the testing phase where I gather more evidence to put the hypothesis to the test, carrying the analogy through. I've got a theory, and it seems to work. But I haven't proven it to be true or false, because I don't have enough proof; I don't have enough solid evidence to reach that definitive conclusion that what I've found is right.

And, yeah, I find your overall approach to me to be highly-scummy. Your handling of me simply doesn't seem town at all.

Honestly, this begs the question. Dry-fit wasn't scum. Why was there a counter-wagon to him forming? My best guess is that one or more of the other wagons in the previous votecount (Toomai/Yunichika/Bulbazak/Desperado/Maxous) was on scum, and that they wanted to ensure that the lynch was guaranteed to--if not on town--at least not be on their faction of scum. In particular, I'm thinking about the Toomai and Bulbazak wagons. Probably not for the same faction, but both having a significant chance of being FROM a faction.

I don't get this. Dry-fit was already a strong lynch candidate that both teams knew was either town or opposite. Why would they move to form a counter-wagon on someone else? That doesn't seem to accomplish anything.

And yet, despite you saying this? The counterwagon existed. Dry-fit

was

a strong lynch candidate that both teams knew was either town or opposite. So why the hell would they form a counter-wagon on JKLM? Yet despite this...

they did

. So it must have accomplished

something

. Which is my point exactly. A counter-wagon doesn't make any sense as far as conventional logic goes with Dry-fit flipping town, but there must be a reason. And my proposed reason is that one or multiple of the secondary wagons were scum, and the scum wanted to ensure not only that the main (Dry-fit) wagon wasn't on them, but ALSO that whatever Dry-fit's counter-wagon would be would also not be them. Basically, that they counter-wagoned JKLM to make the fight be between two town lynches, rather than, say, a fight between Dry-fit and, oh, let's guess Bulbazak.

[mastin2]

Mod: Monday V/LA for the next two months or so

, due to work on Tuesday. (4 am.)
/25 tomorrow if I can. Wednesday if not.

[mastin2]

Mod: V/LA for about a day.

Suffering PTSD right now, so it'll take me a while to properly compose myself. I'm shook up still, and quite noticeably so.

[mastin2]

This is becoming an alarming trend. >_<

Internet was down for 24 hours, am now playing catch-up.

[mastin2]

Mastin starts off by faking ignorance of the game being multiball. How do I know it was fake? Two things: He was asked by the mod to play, and he mentions the game advertisement. Both stem from the same reasoning. The game advertisement had the game name in great big letters:

Fire and Ice

, and I would assume the mod would tell him the game name when asking him to sign up (Heck, I have people ask questions about upcoming games before they even pre-in, there's no way the most basic of information didn't get across.).

Except Jacob didn't. It's a bit further back in my inbox, and I'm not sure I'm allowed to directly quote it, but I can paraphrase. A PM that seemed a lot like it was from an artist rather than a mod. "You want to join mine and CityElectric's Large Normal". (With something that could have, but probably didn't, reference my other online identity, the one that's an artist.) I can, however, pull up for surez my immediate response to this:

JacobSavage asked me to /in to his game, soyeah, doing so.

Do I mention Fire and Ice in the title? No. Because I didn't know. He asked me to play. I went there and said to sign me up. I didn't even remember I did. The first indication I had of the game beginning was receiving my role PM, seeing it said to confirm in-thread, having no link, going to the second PM which had the link, and then...bluntly saying this exact same thing. "Whoops. Totally forgot I signed up. But I'm confirming, and will get to you guys with content later."

He doesn't want anyone to have high expectations for him this game, because he doesn't want to put himself out there too much.

This basically directly contradicts the majority of your other points, by the way. I put myself out there. Painted a giant freakin' target on me. Directly acted in a way that was meant to be a bit antagonistic. Directly made it obvious I was town. Directly tried to provoke scumreads of mine. That's anything but not putting myself out there. Yes, I didn't expect much of me. Still don't. That I wasn't nightkilled means that I've basically failed to be a threat. But the two are entirely different things.

His voting of him straight off the bat is distancing. He's not bussing. Mastin doesn't bus, not in the traditional sense. He's smart about it. He doesn't want anyone to draw a connection between him and Maxous, and while he's going to call Maxous scum, he doesn't intend to keep his vote on him for very much longer.

This is true...of my single-scum game. In multiscum? Fuck no, I'm not even going to do distancing. I'm going to townread my scumbuddies, no matter how damn scummy I think they are, SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE I DON'T WANT THEM DEAD. Distancing draws attention to opposite-scum. Bussing draws attention to town. Townreading? Doesn't. Simple stuff.

Finally, we end with Mastin's scumread of Aptil. Where did that come from? Well, it seems Aptil actually questioned one of Mastin's moves. Mastin immediately calls her scum.

Nice narrative, but exactly that--a story fabricated. I said exactly what I meant:
IF Bulbazak is scum, it'd be

possible

for aptil to be scum. Basically my exact damn words. Two qualifiers, there. TWO. That's anything but a scumread. The explicit implication here is that in any other scenario, aptil would be town. Basically?
If Bulbazak is town, aptil is town.
If Bulbazak is scum, it's possible aptil's scum. (But not definitely. Just possible.)
If Bulbazak is scum, aptil could still be town. (My current belief.)
None of these are what Bulbazak is painting my aptil reaction to be. Bluntly, he's lying; this is right there in my damn iso spelled out as clearly as can be.

All in all, Mastin's posts are meant to look impressive more than anything else.

Yep! Look impressive. Seems like that'd be drawing attention to myself, no? They're meant to look impressive because I've been trying to get scum to nightkill me.

Just because someone's reads match your own or they echo your thoughts back to you, that doesn't mean they're town.

Yes, but it's a fine indicator that maybe they're coming from the same mindset as you are.

I approve of that mastin case you have there, but why follow it with a YC vote? Yeah I know you've had it as scum for a while (and I don't exactly disagree), but it seems like an odd time to give it a vote.

Yep. Toomai's scum. Good question, very bad way of stating it.

In other news, hard to say for sure (need to check his scumgame in multiball), but PV's potentially town. Desp, not so much. Think I had him as a townread; that's faded. Severely.

[mastin2]

I'm reading and posting tonight... after skimming I like Bulba's case on mastin , but don't fully understand the jump on Yuni

(Because you're scum, and Bulb's also scum.)

Mastin you didn't respond to my post from a few pages ago and I would like you to please.

TSO's town because he is?

[mastin2]

How does Bulbazak go from making a case on Mastin and move on to voting someone completely different and only 1 person finds it strange ? UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bulbazak .

Something is wrong with the situation yes, but I don't really think it means Bulbazak is scum, because while his YC vote is weirdly-timed isn't not exactly unexplained (due to several previous posts).

BTW, I'm reading Toomai as town and agree with him in 734. More coming...

Good

god

, you're scum. Gah. It's painfully obvious. Normally, I'm good at explaining to people why, but right now, I'm having writer's block. But...geh. It's as obvious as non-obvscum can get.

how is anybody reading Slandaar as town god damn

I KNOW, RIGHT?!?

(Whatever suspicion I had on EPM has faded. Significantly. He's a townread.)

And Desp's scum, too. PV's right about that.

I don't know about the teams. I don't know for sure if Bulbazak's the fifth (although I strongly suspect as much). But Toomai, NJAC, Slandaar, and Desp are all scum.

This is incredibly bad, but it's all I got.

Then you weren't really convinced by Matias, then, were you?

I read Matias's case against Yuni, and my reaction to it is entirely "meh". It's not a bad case, but it's not a good case, either. It's a case which makes me mildly townread Matias, but other than that, functionally useless; I feel neither better nor worse about Yunichika after having read it. (And Yuni's still a townread of mine, sooooooo, not lynching her.)

[mastin2]

Then you weren't really convinced by Matias, then, were you?

Actually I missed this. Good god, dude, this is snaky. You could let him think for himself.

Snaky, no. Snarky, yes, and justifiably so.

Well I didn't really need any more help to vote YC.

Vote: YuniChikako

I don't see anything wrong with p_a's reads post, so...not sure what to think of the slot right now.

This guy's scum. I said that before; I'll say it again.

Side-note, but I realized that it

could

be possible for PA to be scum. She's not fire, though, as far as I can tell from quick analysis. (But note the "could". I don't think she is; it's just that my townread on the slot is now a null-read.)

mastin, can you explain your assignation of reads in 768? Because while you say you're good at explaining your reads, that's less true when you're scum seeing what you can get pushed through.

Actually, it's

more

true for when I'm scum, not less. But basically...
Toomai is scum because his posts are not coming from a town mindset at all. He's analyzing things thinking like scum, and it's showing in his posts, showing quite badly.

NJAC is a similar read. He's not analyzing things like a town player. He's analyzing things more from the same type of perspective that Maxous had. It's difficult to describe; the best word I can come up with for it is that it's his tone, but that word seems inadequate to describe the read on him.

Desp is scum because this is not his towngame. He's not posting town stuff. He's not being the super-awesome scumhunter I know his town self to be. He's basically a non-entity this game, similar to his game in Xenogears. Basically, everything that makes him town is absent and everything that makes him scum is present. Including how he occasionally makes good posts, but is not consistently doing so.

Slandaar is a scumread for his TSO push and overall what I see as being crap-play. This scumread's not as strong as it used to be, though.

Bulbazak is a scumread because this game feels an awful lot like his scumgame in Maniacal Street, and not what his towngame is like. This is also a weaker scumread right now, but basically, the general aura around his analysis is rotten and feels hollow and empty. (This is also a point against Slandaar.) There are flashes I see which could be stubborn-asshole-arrogant-Bulb-town, but those are just flashes, not consistent, and are a trend that Bulbazak swore he was working out of his towngame--that they're here is not a reassurance, but rather, a warning.

(Speaking of Bulb, I've seen his wall but I'm choosing not to respond to it. At least, not at this time.)

Yunichikawowwow [9] - Matias, Bulbazak, Slandaar, Desperado, T S O, Toomai, penguin_alien, Garmr, RachMarie

Bulb/Slandaar/Desp/Toomai with an outside chance of PA are all figures of extreme interest, here. Matias died saying to analyze the Yuni wagon if she flipped town, and I think he was right to have asked this. The towniest names on there are Rach, Garmr, and TSO (approximately in that order), and even then, not amazingly so.

Scum are trying to kill each other. Whichever team killed Matias was obviously looking for other scum on the Yuni wagon. This makes it likely that most of that team was off the wagon. We're likely only looking at 2 scum max on the Yuni wagon given that.

Also, looking back over Yiley's posts d2 makes it clear that Aptil is not fire scum.

This looks like scum with inside info.

I'm thinking mastin or JKLM is ice if Yuni isnt, but one day at a time.

This is also REALLY relevant...especially given that Matias was killed by Ice. JKLM's slot is now PA's slot, and the basis for this analysis isn't bad. (That Maxous wouldn't be on JKLM if JKLM was fire.)

At this stage, I'm thinking that one of Slandaar/Bulb is probably town, and that PA very well could be scum, since this is looking really damn bad for her.

aptil [4] - Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, PeregrineV, Matias

Matias never voted aptil.

That's the error, not the number.

I've decided I'm done with aptil for now.

Vote: Yiley

His Day 2 is much worse than aptil's, and I think this needs to be elaborated better:

It is being reflexively defensive. Instead of looking for good legitimate scumreads, people are being reflexive and jumping on to a wagon with little to no reasoning and bad reasoning if any.
VOTE: toomai

So now explain how that vote of yours is not reflexive and doesn't have little reasoning.

Your poor reasoning is what I'm attacking here

Nice OMGUS vote lol

Could be relevant to Toomai. I need to take another look at the Toomai-Maxous interaction.

At this stage, I basically need to do a cross-reference on my current thoughts with my analysis so far.

I'm thinking NJAC's scum and Toomai's scum, but I haven't the slightest idea which flavor for them right now; that I need to investigate. I think that PA has a frighteningly-high chance of being Ice, since the evidence is strongly pointing that way to me. Desp is also probably scum, but I don't know which type. One of Bulb/Slandaar is town as a result (it's possible both are, but that'd require me to be wrong on a townread when I'm feeling good about basically all of them), and I lean towards it being Slandaar but I'm far from certain about it.

Basically, am at the stage where crossreferencing is necessary, since we've got a shit-ton worth of info to sift through, between the nightkilled players and the votecount info and the living players' interactions.

VOTE: penguin_alien
For the time being.

[mastin2]

They were both obvtown; Yiley especially.

VOTE: Toomai

OK, who has Toomai as town? no-one, lets lynch him then.

Like the attitude and vote; don't like the assessment of the nightkills being obvtown when both of them were anything but.

Got the daystart message, but about to leave for the day. Want to see how the Yuni wagon developed, considering his day2 play was much improved over his day 1 play. Even i saw that, and I thought he was scum day1.

pedit: I have him as a town read.

Sorta still seeing town, but am feeling tinges of paranoia with PV when he posts stuff like this.

[mastin2]

Votecount 1.12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Dry - Fit[10]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM, Yunichikawowwow, aptil

[LYNCH]

JKLM [5]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous

Toomai [1]

- Dry-fit

Bulbazak [1]

- RachMarie

TSO [1]

- Slandaar

Not Voting [1]

- Antihero

With 19 alive, it takes

10[/i]

votes to lynch.

Holy shit, I just realized how this makes sense, now.

JKLM is Ice-scum. Desperado and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe one other person on the wagon is also Ice scum. (It's possible the third Ice-scum is among those in the 1 voters--basically, Slandaar or Antihero/NJAC.)

Ice-scum were being wagoned, so needed to counter-wagon Dry-fit.
On the other hand...the fire scum wanted to wagon the ice-scum. Thus, Maxous's presence, and Toomai's presence, and maybe even Bulbazak's presence.

Basically, Maxous/Toomai/Bulbazak? being fire and PA/Desperado/thirdnamehere (NJAC?) being ice.

I still need to run the math on the other wagons and reference Maxous and reference these players' interactions with one another, butyeah. I think I have my answer, here.

[mastin2]

(And, yes, I fully realize every piece of evidence I'm presenting applies equally as much to me as it does to others. But since I know I'm town, I'm going to assume as much. )

[mastin2]

Yunichikawowwow [8]

-

Garmr

, Slandaar, Desperado, Bulbazak, JKLM, PeregrineV

Bulbazak [3]

- ArcAngel9, mastin 2, Yunichikawowwow

Yiley [1]

- Toomai

Toomai [1]

- Maxous

JKLM [1]

- Matias

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Not Voting [4]

- T S O, Lawrencelot, evilpacman18, OhGodMyLife

The original Yunichika wagon basically only has one name on it not on the later wagon--PV. I'm thinking both the initial D1 and final D2 wagons on her were the same amount of scum, which basically is another way of saying that I think Slandaar/Desp/Bulb/JKLM has at least three scum in them.

I don't have any clue how you came to this conclusion, and if this is scummy for him, then you should find both mastin and I scummy as well.

no no, no

It's not that Toomai called TSO town (which he is), it's that he said nothing BUT that.
Look at his ISO - he is posting just enough not to be called lurking with just enough content not be fluff posting. He gives like 1 new read per post. His pushes are weak (if existent?)
It's textbook coasting scum.

- Garmr: His first post was really comfortable(tonally), no sign of scum caution or nerves to it - and was a big difference to his early play in a mini normal I was in with him recently (in which he was scum). There is a massive difference here between this game and that game.
-Slandaar: I don't feel like he would of written #18 as scum, not a strong read but eh. (since then, his play has been ok)
- ArcAngel: What I was suspecting about Arc was that she delayed starting the game because she was strategising with her buddies pre-game first (since I happened to see her post elsewhere without confirming here) but her complete lack of activity since has blown that theory out of the water.
- Desperado: I liked how he was pro-active and agressive in pushing the Yuni wagon early, as I think scum would of voted and sat back at the point.
- Aptil: Yeah, his post being weak was the reason I was meh on him.
- JKLM: I liked him early because his posts were full of aggression and conviction

T S O - going nullish, not explaining Dry-Fit scum is getting tiresome and little other commentary. #281 comes across as towny though
Bulbazak - seems town sans dodgy vote on JKLM(early push was weak)
Antihero (Lawrencelot) - ??
Matias - leaning scum
Desperado - town I think. Only hard-pusher of Dry-Fit. Putting his neck on the line.
evilpacman18 *- leaning town
JKLM - not so sure atm
OhGodMyLife *- ??
mastin2 - leaning scum. Bad Dry-fit push, bad attack on Bulba and way too much fluff. Memories of Town!Mastin being more purposeful and direct with his posting.
PeregrineV *- felt like he was townish earlier but bad dry-fit vote.
Garmr - town
aptil - pfft ??
YuniChikako - town
ArcAngel9 *- ??
Slandaar - town
Yiley - town-ish? he should post thoughts on something.
Toomai - scummy
Dry-fit - idk?

A quick skim of this, though, is giving me doubts about my earlier callout.

I need to think things through a bit more. I feel like I'm onto something--but the specifics are muddying the waters far too much.

[mastin2]

Derp.

VOTE: evilpacman18.

Shoulda used that shot on me, PA. You do realize that I'm not Fire but basically all of my own analysis sorta points to me being Ice anyway, and that sooner or later if I'm not getting nightkilled I'm going to get myself lynched for it.

[mastin2]

Actually, fuck that.
UNVOTE: evilpacman18[/vote]

My vote doesn't make a damn difference and I'm not going to be on that wagon, just 'cause.

Vote: evilpacman18

Probably scum, still. Maybe even Ice-scum bussing a busted buddy.

[mastin2]

UNVOTE: evilpacman18.

[mastin2]

Basically, I don't give a damn at this point. The fire scum are going to join the wagon since it's lynching their opposite faction. The ice scum are going to join the wagon because they know their buddy is busted. I'm going to get lynched off of suspicion of me being ice anyway, so it doesn't make a damn difference if I'm on the wagon or off, but it does make one critical vital difference--give me just enough time to get thoughts out before the end of the day, with this new piece of analysis to go off of.

[mastin2]

Bulbazak is probably town conversely, 65 is a good post.
aptil appears to be feigning interest with questions with conclusiveness of questionable importance to him. That sentence doesn't make sense. aptil looks like he doesn't care about the answers to his questions.
I also was concerned with the yungchicago wagon, probably 2 or 3 of the back 4 votes are scum. JKLM, PV (whose posts 39 and 96 caught my eye but not enough to label it leaning scum), maybe Yiley. Bulba looks town to me though.

Need to take a detailed look at the Bulb-EPM interaction to see what to make of it, along with the aptil analysis.

However, I know that EPM basically has no hesitance to treat his scumbuddies how he chooses to. He'll bus them, he'll townread them, depending on what he feels like. So this analysis on the Yunichika wagon is likely legitimate--scum on the wagon, with him thinking/knowing it's 2-4 of the back votes.

[mastin2]

Almost reflex voted Slandaar for 367 and I hardly ever have the urge to reactively vote.
Just checked his iso: Slandaar is avoiding posting anything by complaining about other peoples' posts. JKLM can wait

vote: Slandaar

They're probably scum buddies though, I could see Slandaar being the sneaky fool that RVS votes his buddy. Especially considering the "eagerness" with which he started the game.
And then 372: "someone get off now" as if someone being put to L-1 is a horrible thing, meanwhile ignoring anyone who's participated in his getting to L-1.
Slandaar's been around, Slandaar's been posting, but he hasn't a problem with the rise of this wagon until he gets the chance to pipe in and white knight: "LOOK AT WHAT A TOWN HERO I AM, I AM BEING CAUTIOUS ABOUT A LYNCH"

Also relevant (he immediately hops off, and onto...JKLM, something I don't think my analysis reflected). (Why is it that both Maxous and EPM have suspiciously-similar interactions with both Bulbazak and Slandaar? >_<)

In fact I'm feeling Maxous, Slandaar and JKLM fire scum team. See the relation between 91 and 94 for instance. ("clearly I was sleepy this morning" is some bullshit)

I'm actually willing to buy this as legitimate, making Slandaar either fire or town.

[mastin2]

As far as other scum on that early YungChicago wagon, I'm thinking Yiley. Everyone else on that wagon I'm reading null to town (Garmr, Bulbazak, PeregrineV look town, Desperado idk)
A lot of people early in the game were reading Slandaar as town apparently, idk why I got so shut down when I made the same call a bit later.
Right, I was scum reading aptil, he must be ice. Along with Yiley? Don't remember seeing anything I thought were connections between the two.

Desp is probably Ice from this alone, by the way, in addition to his overall pattern of posting. Aptil is likely not Ice-scum.

I'm not gonna re-review the whole game, just the parts I was more absent for. On to the end of D1…

Yiley, JKLM, Desperado, and PV are notable mainstays of both the Yuni and Dryfit wagons yesterday. Of the four, I'm reading the first two strongly scum, and the latter two weakly town.

This supports the idea that one of {Desp, PV} is ice-scum, and not the other. I HEAVILY lean towards it being Desp. (It

could

be both, theoretically, but I don't think so.)

Bulba, what are you seeing in Yuni? Do you think aptil and Yuni are scum buddies?
mastin might be scum… it's interesting that he seems to have forgotten he's already labeled himself conftown from that "townslip" in his first post
Also Slandaar going after TSO who actually HAS townslipped several times irks me. 536 and 538 have sooooo much of him putting words in TSO's mouth, assuming intentions that can't be rightly assumed, and strawman.
Garmr is doing the Lord's work in 581, I'm glad we see the same relationship between Maxous and JKLM. do you have an idea of teams yet? and how do you feel about Slandaar?

vote: Slandaar

Not sure what to make of these, though. Sorta think it could be a Bulb connection. TSO's probably not ice-scum, but not certainly so. Garmr is likely not ice, either.

[mastin2]

This is pretty obviously a distraction to the good wagon on JKLM slot. Slandaar of course is part of the problem but Desperado looks bad too. Bulba is just misguided because of not believing in wagon speed and timing being relevant. Looking at the VCs, Yuni can be determined town without ever reading one of her posts. -_- I'll have to rethink teams. If anybody wants to talk compromises, I'd go for aptil or even Mastin before letting obvious town get lynched

Definitely thinking a minimum of one between Desp/Bulb is Ice-scum. Thinking about it, probably (though not certainly) only one, and strongly lean towards Desp being the second.

Aw, heck with it. We're going to lynch EPM anyway so I might as well put money down with my mouth.
VOTE: Desperado.

[mastin2]

Yunichikawowwow [8]

-

Garmr

, Slandaar, Desperado, Bulbazak,

JKLM

, PeregrineV

Bulbazak [3]

- ArcAngel9, mastin 2, Yunichikawowwow

Yiley [1]

- Toomai

Toomai [1]

- Maxous

JKLM [1]

- Matias

Desperado [1]

- aptil

Not Voting [4]

- T S O, Lawrencelot, evilpacman18

Slandaar is not Ice-scum, but could be fire-scum. Desp is likely Ice-scum. Bulb I'm not sure on. Then there's PV, who's probably town. Basically, this wagon is most likely to have at least two scum on it, maybe three, but it's difficult to pin down for sure.

The Bulb wagon I maintain was likely all-town, which raises the question why nobody who's scum jumped on it.

EPM's scum in not voting, but I need to take another look at TSO (townread) and NJAC's slot (scumread) to see about them.
I also really think that Toomai's still scum, though. I need to take another look at aptil as well, despite my townread there.

Dry - Fit[10]

-Desperado, Matias, Yiley, mastin2, T S O, OhGodMyLife, PeregrineV, JKLM, Yunichikawowwow, aptil

[LYNCH]

JKLM [5]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai, evilpacman18, Maxous

Toomai [1]

- Dry-fit

Bulbazak [1]

- RachMarie

TSO [1]

- Slandaar

Not Voting [1]

- Antihero

We know there's a fire and an ice on JKLM. So once again, why the counter-wagon to the town-wagon? This is what I'm not getting.

[mastin2]

Random note--
I really, REALLY don't like those who're saying "the nightkilled were obvtown", when bluntly, they weren't. Yeah, the scum thought so. (As EPM confirmed.) But they thought so in part because they're scum and know that the nightkilled are not among them, and thus, only need to hunt other-faction scum. I know that multiple people have done so on these different days, and I need to check for that kind of response, given how bad it is.

[mastin2]

Dry - Fit[10]

-Desperado, T S O, PeregrineV,

JKLM

, aptil

[LYNCH]

JKLM [5]

- Bulbazak, Garmr, Toomai,

evilpacman18, Maxous

Bulbazak [1]

- RachMarie

TSO [1]

- Slandaar

Not Voting [1]

- Antihero

The Dry-fit wagon looks suspiciously absent of scum. (Yes, I deleted my own name. Dealwithit. ) Desp, TSO, PV, and aptil are the only candidates.

Desp/PV both sorta seem like Ice to me anyway, but not together, with me thinking Desperado. But where the hell is the fire-scum?
Also, I really don't like the names on the JKLM wagon, given the two scum there already and the towniest name being Garmr.

I also think there has to be at least one scum (if not two) in the 1 voters. Not just by arbitrary numbers, but by general situational analysis and player standings. I've got a townread on Rach, which'd leave Slandaar/NJAC as candidates.

Geh. The more I dig, the worse this is getting.

[mastin2]

I may go through the rest tomorrow; you still need to answer my question from yesterday.

Well, given that I'm doubting my TSO read...kinda pointless to do.

[mastin2]

At this point, I'm basically coming to have five or so openings for four slots. NJAC, Slandaar, Toomai, Bulb, and Desperado, with a need to reanalyze TSO, PV, and aptil.

[mastin2]

It's not that Toomai called TSO town (which he is), it's that he said nothing BUT that.
Look at his ISO - he is posting just enough not to be called lurking with just enough content not be fluff posting. He gives like 1 new read per post. His pushes are weak (if existent?)
It's textbook coasting scum.

- Garmr: His first post was really comfortable(tonally), no sign of scum caution or nerves to it - and was a big difference to his early play in a mini normal I was in with him recently (in which he was scum). There is a massive difference here between this game and that game.
-Slandaar: I don't feel like he would of written #18 as scum, not a strong read but eh. (since then, his play has been ok)
- ArcAngel: What I was suspecting about Arc was that she delayed starting the game because she was strategising with her buddies pre-game first (since I happened to see her post elsewhere without confirming here) but her complete lack of activity since has blown that theory out of the water.
- Desperado: I liked how he was pro-active and agressive in pushing the Yuni wagon early, as I think scum would of voted and sat back at the point.
- Aptil: Yeah, his post being weak was the reason I was meh on him.
- JKLM: I liked him early because his posts were full of aggression and conviction

Sorta still thinking Slandaar is scum, and I think that Toomai is also scum, but I'm not sure which kind of scum.

T S O - going nullish, not explaining Dry-Fit scum is getting tiresome and little other commentary. #281 comes across as towny though
Bulbazak - seems town sans dodgy vote on JKLM(early push was weak)
Antihero (Lawrencelot) - ??
Desperado - town I think. Only hard-pusher of Dry-Fit. Putting his neck on the line.
PeregrineV *- felt like he was townish earlier but bad dry-fit vote.
Garmr - town
aptil - pfft ??
ArcAngel9 *- ??
Slandaar - town
Toomai - scummy

Unflipped. Gah. This shouldn't be too hard. I keep coming to this and keep reading it with bias; I keep thinking that there's something incredibly telling in here, but that I'm missing it every time I'm looking, despite the extra flips and clarity since then.

[mastin2]

This is as much analysis as I can get. I'm running in circles at this point; maybe someone else can make better sense of it than I can.

[mastin2]

Mastin, why the actual fuck are you trying to start a wagon when we have confirmed scum?

Because I'm getting mislynched tomorrow anyway, so I might as well put my vote out there on who I suspect. EPM's a walking corpse. He'll get lynched without my vote. There's not a chance in hell another wagon goes through today. So I can vote whoever I please, and in this case, I'm voting a scumread.

There's no wagon on it, anyway. If there was a serious one, yeah, I'd get off, but because there isn't, I might as well have my vote recorded where it should be at.


Side-note, but I had a thought some time today that made me think, "You know, Bulbazak's probably town." For the life of me, I can't remember what sparked said thought, but it's not something I'm ignoring. I think it also talked about Slandaar, but I can't remember if I concluded Fire or Town. (I did conclude not-Ice.) Sorta think I concluded Fire, but not sure.

Toomai and mastin make me nervous. I do agree that mastin isn't fire Mafia.

Well, duh, but sadly, I do fit the profile for Ice as much as I'd love to not be. Toomai's probably scum, though what flavor I don't know. You can always take a gamble and help me lynch Toomai tomorrow, though; if Toomai ends up flipping Ice, that'd be the proof I'd need to become conftown.

[mastin2]

mastin2 was turned into a Kebab, he was a

Vanilla Townie

I'm waking up,
To ash and dust,
I wipe my brow,
And I sweat my rust.
I'm breathing in,
The chemicals...

I'm breaking in,
Shaken up,
And checking out on the deadly bus,
This is it,
My apocalypse,
Whoa...

I'm burnin' up,
I feel it in my bones!
Enough to make my system blow!
Welcome to the new age, to the new age,
Welcome to the new age, to the new age,
Welcome to the new age, to the new age...
Whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh,
I'm radioactive,
Radioactive,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh,
I'm radioactive,
Radioactive...

I raise white flags,
Douse my clothes,
It's a revolution, I suppose.
I'm painted red,
To fit right in,
Whoa...

I'm breaking in,
Shaken up,
And checking out on the deadly bus,
This is it,
My apocalypse,
Whoa...

I'm burnin' up,
I feel it in my bones!
Enough to make my system blow!
Welcome to the new age, to the new age,
Welcome to the new age, to the new age,
Welcome to the new age, to the new age...
Whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh,
I'm radioactive,
Radioactive,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh,
I'm radioactive,
Radioactive...

All systems gone,
The sun did ignite,
Deep from my bones,
Through my insides...

I'm burnin' up,
I feel it in my bones!
Enough to make my system blow!
Welcome to the new age, to the new age,
Welcome to the new age, to the new age,
Welcome to the new age, to the new age...
Whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh,
I'm radioactive,
Radioactive,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh,
Whoa, oh, oh, oh,
I'm radioactive,
Radioactive...

(Not the Bah post I wanted. )

[mastin2]

For the record, I am going to be trying to write post-game notes for this game, but this one's not exactly my top priority atm to tackle.

I was sheeping Mastin's read on NJAC after she died.

This kinda surprises me to learn, and I have to ask if it was driven by you or TSO.

I mean, my reads this game were fairly decent overall, but weren't stellar; I also had you as scum and PV as scum at different points, if you recall. What made my NJAC read more accurate than my other reads? (Other than it being correct. )