Mini 1867 -- TBD Mafia [game over]
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ɀefiend Goon
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ɀefiend Goon
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Aristophanes wrote:
Oh come on, there are only 456976 possible combinations! If you really wanna put the work into it, just try them all!In post 22, ɀefiend wrote:I feel like writing a script to continually submit responses that guess everyone's unique letters so that I can play exactly the game I want.
Wrong. It's 456975 since your own combination is knownMcMenno wrote:that's not probabilities that's combinatorics
anyway it's just 26 to the fourth power which is indeed 456976
Ffs I hate playing with incompetent idiot/s.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Way to suck all the fun out of the game before it even begins.In post 39, drealmerz7 wrote:I realized it is probably healthy for me to tell you all that I am vehemently opposed to sharing anything about how we answered the questionnaire. You all are going to do it as you do it, but I encourage NOT DOING IT, for the betterment of the game and for yourselves individually. Just don't talk about it. Further, just know that I will not be talking about it and will react poorly to those who try to get me to do otherwise.
Everyone OK with flash policy lynching this Debbie Downer at Day start?-
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ɀefiend
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ɀefiend
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ɀefiend Goon
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What do you mean by the bolded part?In post 187, drealmerz7 wrote: that makes me uneasy at this point because ofthe nature of the game (which is unknown)- thoughts turn to jester or bomb
One could guess some of the winning answers on the questionnaire already. For instance, most people preferred a humorous flavor.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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ɀefiend Goon
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Even though it might have been the first non-RVS post made in the game? Someone's gotta get the ball rolling right?
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ɀefiend Goon
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The irony is not lost on this one.In post 136, drealmerz7 wrote:KAIN TEPPES,
we haven't really had much of a chance to meet or interact
if I don't get frustrated or pissed off, I'm a fucking blast to play with (I think) and I look forward to playing with you!!!!!!
Still kinda in RVS mode myself. Must be the playerlist. Think I'll leave a VOTE: Desperado though.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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ɀefiend Goon
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I read everything that happened, and here's my takeaway. Long-ish post ahead. TL;DR to follow.
lane and Davsto are very logical players. I don't have game experience with lane but from the way he posts it's obvious. I do agree that with Narna that lane asks someveryleading questions at times, but I don't find this AI in and of itself. As for Davsto, I do have some game experience and I also read the entire Donald Trump thread in GD. The two of them are clashing heavily with drealmerz because he's a very emotional player. Technically I don't have game "experience" with him but you don't even need that to conclude that drealmerz is an AtE type-of-guy. I think drealmerz position about not answering is defensible when you consider that KainTepes himself reflects on drealmerz' perspective. (Side note: I think KainTepes is Town. Even if (s)he's not, (s)he's locked himself into a softclaim revolving around the questionnaire. That should be easy to expose later on in the game.) However, I dislike drealmerz' style of dealing with pressure if he is indeed Town. He doesn't even attempt to answer some basic questions and also relies on WIFOM defenses which I absolutely detest. Enough about drealmerz, though. Of all the votes on him, I actually think Aristophanes' is the most suspicious, soIGMEOY.
My top scum-read is actually Desperado. He earned my pseudo-placeholder vote for this post:
My thoughts concern the second part Re: McMenno. Note that Narna's request was for Desperado to point out things about McMenno's posts that had scum motivation. However, two out of the three reasons Desperado gives imply that aIn post 263, Desperado wrote:
Could be ya.In post 261, Narna wrote:Is Lane town?
Faking the PR; no meaningful response to his wagon; no thoughts on dreal responding to his wagon for him.Find scum intent in mcmeemo posting.lackof specific posting from McMenno is scummy. (The PR thing is up in the air, since we are talking about "McMeme-o" after all. I'm not going to digress to argue the strength of this reason.) McMenno didn't have a meaningful response to his wagon, but neither did Davsto, and Davsto's was bigger. The last reason is misapplied to the actual situation, so I cannot discern whether it is bogus scum reasoning or an honest mistake. However, I can explain the misapplication. Drealmerz wasn't responding to the McMenno wagonper se, he was responding to Lane questioning him about hisownconcern for the wagon.
The last sentence pings me because (1) it reads as fence-sitting about the discussion as a whole, whereas most (active) players have taken a hard stance on it, and (2) KainTepes and drealmerz had just gone through a lengthy back-and-forth about the discussion at hand, but Desperado doesn't elaborate about what, if any "alignment indicators" he picked up on from their exchange -- this begs the questionsIn post 267, Desperado wrote:Even if everyone answered truthfully both on the questionnaire and in their answers here I don't think we'd be able to deduce anything from that information. We don't know what kind of assumptions xyzzy was making to interpret the data and make design decisions.
I don't know if it's necessarily anti-town, mainly because merely discussing this issue can provide alignment indicators, but I do think it could end up dominating the discussion and give scum an easy IIoA avenue.
-If the KainTepes/drealmerz exchangedidn'tprovide any alignment indicators (side note: I think it did), what type of indicators should we actually be searching for with regards to the questionnaire-reveal discussion? &
-If the exchangedidprovide alignment indicators, why didn't Desperado share these at the time? Why bring up the fact that the discussion can provide alignment indicators if you aren't going to talk about them?
In other news, I have Narna as a solid Town-read. I really like all of the posts he made on this page. I would like to know his opinion on my Desperado-read.
Lastly, McMenno, Frank, and Sparky need to actually contribute. I am waiting with keen ears for this post from Frank.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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TL;DR
I talk about my view of the KT-drealmerz-lane-Davsto situation and case Desperado for scum. I also mention everybody else in passing.
Strong-town: Narna
Prob-town: Davsto, Drealmerz, KainTepes
Not sure: Lane
Null: Secret Agent Jin, Gamma Emerald, McMenno
Ping-scum: Aristophanes
Lurker-scum candidates: Frank, Snarky
Scum-lean: Desperado-
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ɀefiend Goon
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It's a notch below FoS because it's a minor ping, not a gut feeling.In post 387, Aristophanes wrote:
It took longer than it should have for me to figure out what this meant. Usually we just call it an FoS (Finger of Suspicion). IGMEOY works though lolIn post 383, ɀefiend wrote:IGMEOY-
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ɀefiend Goon
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I don't see why. Snarkys post is empty and useless. Also I get the feel like you didn't read my wallpost at all.In post 391, drealmerz7 wrote:
anti-lurk gun holstered!In post 390, SnarkySnowman wrote:If you're not voting davsto, you're wrong.
Lane is a good choice otherwise though.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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That is exactly my point. Read this sentence in the context of my case lol.In post 392, McMenno wrote:
I mean twou ouf thouse points are literally I was nout oun at the time sou I've resigned to him being either a lyncher oun me our bad scumIn post 383, ɀefiend wrote:However, two out of the three reasons Desperado gives imply that a lack of specific posting from McMenno is scummy.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Davsto took option 1) at the time. Hell, he even voted himself. He didn't start scumhunting until later when he jumped in to the conversation with drealmerz. By your logic Davsto is scummy for that just like McMenno.In post 393, Desperado wrote:
When a player is wagoned he has four options:In post 383, ɀefiend wrote:My thoughts concern the second part Re: McMenno. Note that Narna's request was for Desperado to point out things about McMenno's posts that had scum motivation. However, two out of the three reasons Desperado gives imply that a lack of specific posting from McMenno is scummy. (The PR thing is up in the air, since we are talking about "McMeme-o" after all. I'm not going to digress to argue the strength of this reason.) McMenno didn't have a meaningful response to his wagon, but neither did Davsto, and Davsto's was bigger. The last reason is misapplied to the actual situation, so I cannot discern whether it is bogus scum reasoning or an honest mistake. However, I can explain the misapplication. Drealmerz wasn't responding to the McMenno wagon per se, he was responding to Lane questioning him about his own concern for the wagon.
1) Ignore it and do nothing else
2) Ignore it and continue scumhunting
3) Address it and do nothing else
4) Address it and continue scumhunting
1) and 3) lean scum, 2) and 4) lean town. McMenno and Davsto clearly reacted differently to their wagons so I'm curious what leads you to suggest that I'm "misapplying" anything here.
So you admit you're conf-biasing on this point. You keep referencing the McMenno "wagon" like it's pertinent when in actuality 1) there was a bigger wagon (Davsto) and 2) the relevant content was between drealmerz and Lane; nothing concerning McMenno directly.As for the last bit, Drealmerz questioned multiple McMenno votes--that is a response to the McMenno wagon, by definition. He carried a conversation on with lane regarding it, but if another player goes out of his way to question multiple votes on my town slot in RVS, I would want to know why and I would expect other townies to feel similarly.
Actually, many people have touched on the questionnaire thing. Lane, Aristophanes, and Narna all answered. Davsto kinda answered. I briefly said why it was pointless. So your statement that there's alignment indicators out there leaves more to be desired than just a single read on drealmerz.
Up to now Kain and Dreal are the only people truly engaging the questionnaire discussion and I have shared my Dreal read so I'm not really sure where you're going with this.In post 383, ɀefiend wrote:The last sentence pings me because (1) it reads as fence-sitting about the discussion as a whole, whereas most (active) players have taken a hard stance on it, and (2) KainTepes and drealmerz had just gone through a lengthy back-and-forth about the discussion at hand, but Desperado doesn't elaborate about what, if any "alignment indicators" he picked up on from their exchange -- this begs the questions
-If the KainTepes/drealmerz exchange didn't provide any alignment indicators (side note: I think it did), what type of indicators should we actually be searching for with regards to the questionnaire-reveal discussion? &
-If the exchange did provide alignment indicators, why didn't Desperado share these at the time? Why bring up the fact that the discussion can provide alignment indicators if you aren't going to talk about them?-
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ɀefiend Goon
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ɀefiend Goon
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When you phrase it like that about McMenno I'm in agreement with you. Not sure I would lynch him before the other lurkers though.
What I'm saying about your theory is that hasn't yielded any results. So either the theory is wrong OR you just aren't sharing your reads on any of the numerous people besides drealmerz who engaged in the discussion. I tend to think it's the second choice, which is why I'm concerned. Can you alleviate that concern for me?-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Idk why you're being so dodgy about this.In post 434, Desperado wrote:You forgot the third option--the theory is correct but results are still being collected as testing is still ongoing.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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At this point any reads would be great.In post 441, Desperado wrote:I do have reads. Zefriend wants reads that are specifically related to the questionnaire discussion.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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What's not genuine about it?In post 443, Azral wrote:I love Narna's posts. He's my strongest townread right now.
Lane and drealmerz are okay, not as strong though.
Kain has done nothing town and I'd be open to lynching him.
zefiend 383 was probably meant to sound super town but it has the opposite effect on me.
Also dislike his push on desperado - not genuine.
VOTE: zefiend-
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ɀefiend Goon
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ɀefiend Goon
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Not sure you're in a position to say this. Do you have any reads besides Davsto and Lane?In post 440, SnarkySnowman wrote:How do you not have reads 18 pages in man-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Way to be as vague as possible. I only cased one person, and they are doing a decent enough job of responding to my points that we are making progress. Your last statement is out of left field and makes no sense. If that statement was consistent with my mentality, then drealmerz would be my #1 scumread.In post 456, Azral wrote:
More or less everything.In post 451, ɀefiend wrote:
What's not genuine about it?In post 443, Azral wrote:I love Narna's posts. He's my strongest townread right now.
Lane and drealmerz are okay, not as strong though.
Kain has done nothing town and I'd be open to lynching him.
zefiend 383 was probably meant to sound super town but it has the opposite effect on me.
Also dislike his push on desperado - not genuine.
VOTE: zefiend
You take small, neutral things people do and try to spin a case on them.
People aren't always logic machines, that doesn't make them mafia.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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You were pretty sure about Kain, then Lane, then Davsto, then back to Lane being scum again. Unless they weren't strong reads, in which case I don't understand why you were being so theatrical.In post 469, drealmerz7 wrote:to me that is often how it goes on D1 though
I often get shit for weak-ass reads on D1 and I'm like "I can't fake having a stronger read when it's not there, it's early in the game, I'll be patient and let them develop"-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Ok, so you're not actually reading the game. You're skimming it and summarizing people's points to what you feel. I'm not going to engage you any further. If you want to have a nuanced conversation about it (like Desperado and I did) then I will try to work with you again.In post 480, Azral wrote:
I mean. Desperado basically said two things:In post 473, ɀefiend wrote:Way to be as vague as possible. I only cased one person, and they are doing a decent enough job of responding to my points that we are making progress. Your last statement is out of left field and makes no sense. If that statement was consistent with my mentality, then drealmerz would be my #1 scumread.
- McMemmo is scummy. (He is.)
- Any interaction between players can be studied, but focusing too much on the questionnaire gives scum an easy IIoA avenue. (This shouldn't be controversial.)
This led to you accusing him of confirmation bias, being dodgy, ignoring other wagons, not having reads and generally having a bad "methodology."
Doesn't feel genuine to me on D1.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Do you always talk to your scumreads like this?In post 477, Aristophanes wrote:
I know, but it's not just weak ass reads. That I get. It's a lack of engagement in the game that is pinging me!In post 469, drealmerz7 wrote:to me that is often how it goes on D1 though
I often get shit for weak-ass reads on D1 and I'm like "I can't fake having a stronger read when it's not there, it's early in the game, I'll be patient and let them develop"
Take a read there. It's a quick Iso to do. Tell me what you see.
Or are you no longer scumreading drealmerz?-
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ɀefiend Goon
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I would throw VOTE: Aristophanes in there to be sure.
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My approach for talking to him about McMenno and other stuff was vastly more successful than yours and drealmerz because my questions were more nuanced, yes.In post 528, Azral wrote:You're being hard to talk to and putting way more effort into not answering questions than it would take to answer them, which probably makes you scum.
(Is this the nuance you were talking about, zefiend?)
The result was that I feel better about his stance on McMenno, but I'm still not satisfied with him trailing off about other reads.
On another note I feel like drealmerz is completely ignoring me this game, which could be taken with a grain of salt BUT it makes me uneasy nonetheless. Maybe I should call him scum so he'll start yelling at me instead?-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Maybe because I'm one of the few people who have attempted to offer analysis instead of just active lurking, bickering, delivering one-liner unsubstantiated reads, being vague, or showing apathy for solving the game?
That's a rhetorical question by the way.
I noticed a few people had questions for me so I'm gonna read up now.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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This is a terrible post.In post 624, McMenno wrote:man I'm pretty sure aristatuephanes is not scum
Why isn't he scum?-
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ɀefiend
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ɀefiend Goon
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Although my sample size on MS is small, I have not ever been in a position to make a gambit like this. Obviously there are gambits like fake claiming doc as vanilla to draw fire, but I'm not a huge believer in those types.In post 849, Desperado wrote:zefriend, how often to you gambit? I did not take you for that kind of player.
Why snarky?
Be more specific about the reads you gathered from your reaction test. I know you're more than capable of it so the lack of depth here is a huge red flag.
The reason I chose to go with a gambit was because (1)the amount of lurkers was too damn high, and I wanted to pressure at least one of them substantially, (2)my target died and I felt rather bummed, so I wanted to make *something* happen, (3)my gut feeling of the player base in this game led me to believe that I could successfully read the reactions to the gambit.
I was going to choose Snarky or Frank, but went with Snarky because Frank was giving me a vibe that he was laying low for a good reason. He's since claimed Doc, which I have no reason to not believe -- this doesn't preclude the possibility of a Mafia Doc.
I wanted to let the gambit simmer for as long as possible so that things could develop, and I'm pleased with the results even though Narna was late to the party -- I'm not too worried about that slot right now anyway.
I liked Desperado and Alisae reactions because their momentum immediately shifted to "solving" the game and auto-winning, so-to-speak. On the other hand, Azrael not so much and I think their L-1 vote was a bit suspicious. Davsto had the opportunity to hammer for a little bit, but that might be seen as scummy regardless of his alignment.
I think some parts of Snarkys claim are true, and some are obvious lies. As someone said, the whole lyncher-info mechanic seems far-fetched. I think Snarky is probably just a self-aligned Lyncher, which leaves 3 more alignments unaccounted for.
If there's a Cult, we should be suspicious of everyone. There might be an Alien, who's responsible for saving Snarky from Azrael vig shot. I've played as an Alien before, and they're generally neutral, meaning I wouldn't worry about them right now. Finally, there could be another independent SK, which would lead me to be cautious of Azrael.
Therefore I'm not interested in lynching Snarky, Desperado, Alisae, Frank, and Narna. That leaves Davsto, Azral, and Kain, the latter whom we haven't heard from at all toDay.
I think Kain should claim since he was strongly softing being an informative PR earlier, then we can go from there.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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In post 741, Alisae wrote:Ah ok.
VOTE: SnarkySnowman
This snowman has got to go then.
btw I'll do reads and all that stuff laterz. Gimmie name to ISO.In post 743, Desperado wrote:Really no need Ali. We can finish the mass claim and win right now.In post 744, Alisae wrote:Oh so I'm claiming now?In post 745, Alisae wrote:actually nah I'll wait.In post 747, Desperado wrote:Sure if you want to start and popcorn it-
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Reasons ...?In post 869, Davsto wrote:[...]
Your reaction test was a bad idea and how you continued to handle it was worse.
Four reads I got directly from my reaction test would have happened anyway if I didn't gauge the test? Explain.In post 870, Davsto wrote:Also the reads you got from it were tenuous at best (and considering massclaim discussion started before your fake result, arguably those reads would have happened anyway)
"Self-evident" is not an argument.I could go on as to how bad it was but it's fairly self-evident (and others have covered many points)
Others have had mixed feelings about the gambit but most are working through it via discussion. Feel free to contribute at any point.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Just to confirm, you're saying you and Davsto confirm each other as Town?In post 925, Desperado wrote:Desperado - Mason
Davsto - Mason Vig
Narna - Census Taker?
Alisae - Watcher
Azral - Vig
KainTepes - Questionnaire Checker
Zefriend - Questionnaire Cop
SnarkySnowman - Informed Lyncher
Frank - Conditional Doctor
In that case, there's no reason to think Azral is also a Town vig.
VOTE: Azral-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Happens all the time. This is why I have Azral as top scumread. If Davsto is Mason Vig then all other Vigs are bad guys.In post 980, FrankJaeger wrote:Is 2 vigs normal? Couldnt a scum just say they are a vig in this situation?-
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Of the informational peoples, I think KainTepes claim is the most suspicious. It's ambiguous and the net benefit to whatever alignment he's with is unrealized. I believe Frank's claim because his doccing works the same way as my copping. The next most suspicious info role would be Alisae, since a watcher with no info where literally almost everyone visited is highly unlikely. Snarky is somewhere in the middle as I believe he is a Lyncher who isn't a top priority target right now.
I am getting paranoid about Desp and Davsto being cultists, because I can't think of any other factions that explain the 7 cited by Snarky. Not willing to lynch there toDay though.
Narna's slowing down of obv-Town behavior is irking me too.-
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Snarky, Davsto and Desp are Masons with each other. I have no reason to disbelieve this because of my read on Desp. However it is possible they could be going with a ballsy claim as Cultists.
The main thing that's driving my vote is that I just don't think there can be two town Vigs. If Azral somehow flips town, then maybe the Mafia get scared and shoot Davsto the fake vig, (for being part of another faction) and then we lynch Desp. I don't fucking know, this is all just hypothetical.-
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No, it doesn't. Snarky is confirmed for lying about this information and therefore scum.In post 1104, FrankJaeger wrote:Does snarkys math still add up about the "7 non town factions"?
Im not in a position to look it up
Don't have a lot of time to devote to this game until tonight, so I'll give a quick rundown.
1. Investigated Narna b/c paranoid and already pretty sure KT and Azral are scum.
2. Redirected to Davsto, he's town.
3. This makes Desperado town (unless bastard game/mechanics).
4. There's no explanation for why Frank (doctor claim) is alive toDay.
VOTE: Azral is the lynch today. Snarky is always a safe lynch but there are probably more dangerous threats. Someone knows why my target got redirected but isn't coming forward (most likely scum).-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Who did you target last night?In post 1119, FrankJaeger wrote:
I think its obv how this prob played out.In post 1105, ɀefiend wrote: 4. There's no explanation for why Frank (doctor claim) is alive toDay.
Also,Narna needs to claim.
There is still no explanation for two Town Vigs. It's actually dumb that the non-Mason Vig claim didn't get lynched yesterday, but whatever.-
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I was redirected from you to Davsto. Passive redirection is a thing. If I targeted you again there was a chance I would be redirected again. That is partially why I am suspicious of you.In post 1151, Narna wrote:I've shared all of my info, including in the posts you just responded to. Are you also telling me that not only were you and Frank not killed, you also weren't redirected again? I'm redacting my KT scumread for now, there is something fucked up going on with the night actions this game.
KT is town by cop result.
The only fucked up things are 1) unaccounted for redirection of my action Night Two and 2) lack of NKs recently. I am currently hypothesizing about both.
How the fuck can you say KT is a useless result when you were asking for it yesterDay?. He was one of the unaccounted for players and now he's been copped as town. The redirection to a mason was not my doing, although it was useful (to me) because it took away paranoia that Davsto+Desperado were Cultists or some shit. Your theory about Davsto, Desperado, Azral, and Me all being a scumteam is laughable. This whole post smells like flail.In post 1154, Narna wrote:Please dude, I've been townreading you all game. Zef just presented an interesting idea in that the scumteam only had a 1-shot killer. That makes no sense to me, but I could see it now that he's brought it up. His results have all been more or less useless (Dreal, mason claim, and KT despite being "redirected" last pahse). I think he may be bullshitting a cop claim with Davsto and Desperado as a scumteam. The amount of deaths n1 coupled with mine and KT's roles fits your conditional doc claim.
Why didn't Zeif check me again last night if he was so suspicious of me?
How exactly do my actions not line up? As a cop I'veIn post 1160, Narna wrote:Zefeind's action do not line up, and he gave you two an inno Desp. It's mostly him, but my point still stands that if I only had one kill, I'd try to lock down something solid like a mason claim with it.
-outed the Lyncher through a gambit
-confirmed a Mason claim as town (indirectly)
-pushed for Azral as soon as he cc'd vig to the Mason. (still can't believe Alisae got lynched, but whatever)
-cleared KainTepes, a wild card that was lynchbait
Show me any ill motives in my play.
First you said I could be partners with the masons, now you're saying I fake inno'd them for town-cred -- that implies you're assuming the masons to be legit. I smell more flail.In post 1169, Narna wrote:I'm getting this from Zefeind. There is a chance he threw you two an inno for towncred, but I'm not so sure. Like where on earth does he pull scum has only a 1-shot killer out of his ass?
The 1-shot or x-shot killer idea is atheorybased on my experiences in other games.
The essence of the point is thatIn post 1170, Narna wrote:[...]
And you're on crack. Zef already claimed he was redirected. Iknowthat this game is more than likely bastard, and something really fishy is going on with no nightkills and Zef claiming to have an accurate result (with a live doc).someone(my guess is You) knows why I was redirected from You to Davsto and is not coming forward and saying why. Therefore the person who knows why is assuredly scum. It's possible that Snarky is responsible for it, but we know he's confirmed lying Lyncher/scum anyway.-
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ɀefiend Goon
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Maybe the other Mafia is a JoaT with something like Rolecop-Redirect-Strongman?In post 1173, Narna wrote:I'm suggesting that you fabricated the KT result because you will win on a mislynch regardless of whether your inno is on KT or I. What is your explanation for being redirected n2, but not n3? It doesn't make sense unless you think the scum team is weak enough to have a goon, no nk, and either a 1/2shot redirect or a passive one on myself. I simply don't believe town has a cop and a watcher with a weak ass scumteam like that. My role is semi-confirmable; we can out our own answers to the questionnaire to sort of confirm my answers. The game is also most likely bastard, and I don't see any reason why your results should be trusted at this point. You and/or Frank should be dead.
Maybe you and Davsto were swapped?
My cop ability is conditional based on answering correctly; maybe the mod thought I wouldn't be so accurate?
If the game is bastard I won't care about losing as much, so I'm treating my results as accurate and therefore Davsto, Desperado, and KT as town.
I agree that Frank should be dead IF the scumteam have any killing ability left over.
Is stuff like Godfather and Lawyer considered bastard?-
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ɀefiend Goon
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ɀefiend Goon
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- Posts: 863
- Joined: April 29, 2013
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