Mini 1537: ATTACK ON TITAN (Game Over!)

[Kagami]

O hi

VOTE: Kaze

You know what you did.

[Kagami]

The "Weak" thing is legit, it doesn't mean weak in the traditional sense. Since Bert is the first to mention it, he's town.

[Kagami]

In case it's not obvious, I'm weak too.

Because flavor isn't alignment indicative, it is very unlikely that scum were given a fake-claim. There's no way bert would know to claim weak unless he is town.

[Kagami]

Yes, weak can only come from town unless ALL scum get the "weak" modifier.

[Kagami]

Third person to claim weak has to say what it means, btw, so please don't give it away, bert.

[Kagami]

I'm at a loss until it's proven than only townies can be "Weak" in this particular sense(and what that sense would be).

I'll explain fully when/if there is a third weak claim.

[Kagami]

Don't fish for this kaze, he's legit.

[Kagami]

Don't worry kaze, I'll explain everything and we can revisit it once we get a third claimant, or it's clear that there is no third claimant.

I'd also ask that Bert, when he returns, mentions nothing about the weak discussion when he returns, even if he finds it confusing. I would really like to get a third claim before anything is revealed or any further public analysis occurs, which may well be setup-breaking. I think it's quite possible that this slipped through the setup review process.

[Kagami]

Because flavor isn't alignment indicative, it is very unlikely that scum were given a fake-claim.

I don't know about this. I think it's likely scum were given fake-claims if there are titan roles in this set-up.

Annie is a titan, that would be a terrible fake-claim =\

[Kagami]

Interesting point. Makes sense that she'd be a miller given the "discern whether they're friend or foe" bit.

[Kagami]

I'd also ask that Bert, when he returns, mentions nothing about the weak discussion when he returns, even if he finds it confusing

OK. I just said what my flavor name is, and yeah just a miller nothing special. Don't really understand anything other than I'm just a normal miller aside from all the decorative flavor.

I've never watched this show or played this game (whichever this is). I just joined because Kaze joined haha and because it looked fun.

It sounds like he realized he said too much in some respect and tried to correct himself by saying he was no different from a normal miller.

yep, I looked back and I'm not just a weak miller, I'm called a weak human miller, to be formally correct. Oh, and it's Leonhart, not Lionhart (phone misread).

/facepalm

[Kagami]

sorry bert, I understand why you're confused, but I think that a clever scummy could now figure it out.

[Kagami]

Ok, here's what weak means:

You do not have maneuver gear.

In the advertisement for the game, it specifically says that the HUMAN faction gets maneuver gear, so it makes no sense for the scum, who already lack the gear, to get the special prefix.

[Kagami]

That's why he was confused that his role was no different from a normal miller, he didn't realize that the other townies got the gear.

[Kagami]

Since I'm just a weak human, the difference between my role and the example Vanilla, Potato Girl, was obvious.

[Kagami]

Just a friendly reminder: Character flavor does not determine alignment, and the game is not breakable by flavor. Additionally, scum factions have been equipped with safe fakeclaims. Thanks!

ugh

K, I still think bert is town, but my assumptions were false. No conftowns

[Kagami]

No, I think he's a weak human miller.

VOTE: kaze

[Kagami]

I don't think he's fakeclaiming. I was just pointing out that with scum getting fakeclaims, it's no longer completely impossible that he's scum, as was my initial proposal.

124 feels like indignation that scum information (that they have fakeclaims) has been leaked by the mod.

[Kagami]

...
Breaking games is not fun.

Breaking games is

~verrrry~

fun.

[Kagami]

Ok, here's what weak means:

You do not have maneuver gear.

In the advertisement for the game, it specifically says that the HUMAN faction gets maneuver gear, so it makes no sense for the scum, who already lack the gear, to get the special prefix.

Yeah.

Scum were told this.

Otherwise this setup would be dumb.

Then all the players who were openly puzzled by the "weak miller" are town, no?

[Kagami]

Because flavor isn't alignment indicative, it is very unlikely that scum were given a fake-claim. There's no way bert would know to claim weak unless he is town.

Go read Sabo mafia, where EtL smoked XScorp b/c of an assumption like this.

This is a terrible assumption to make.

I happen to have read sabo mafia; you and EtL smoked them with clever use of the stolen weak neighborizer ability to make it appear as though EtL was a vig who killed you. Where is the parallel?

[Kagami]

I think a scummy would have jumped on the weak claim then =\

[Kagami]

If you're right, I was basically handing out mad town-cred.

[Kagami]

pasch, I'm quite sure I'm correct about everything I said regarding the weak modifier, the "danger" was that scum would know what it is (either through their fake-claim information or through special mod-granted setup knowledge as bro suggested) and would use that knowledge to snatch some town-cred. The fact that nobody jumped on being the third "claim" suggests to me that they weren't given explicit setup knowledge regarding the modifier, and if one of them has the modifier in their fake-claim, they didn't figure out what it meant (it's not obvious, as bert proved, and would be even less obvious to scum who wouldn't have it on their real PM despite lacking maneuver gear).

Anyway, the argument seems fabricated.

VOTE: Pasch

[Kagami]

Plum, pie, and bert are town.

151 makes me think Bro might be too, but I've heard he's a very competent scum, so I'm less certain.

[Kagami]

Why would scum push a weak player, though? Given that the majority of townies have a 1-shot commute, scum would want to push people who have the potential to dodge an NK.

1-shot commute isn't strong enough to make me think that scum would be all about eliminating players with it. Any townie lynch is a good lynch for scum.

...
It don't know that anyone thought 'Weak' meant what it usually does - it was pretty clear to me by the time she explained it that it probably meant what she then went on to say it means ...

This is my favorite thing that plum has said. If she had really figured what weak meant, there's very little scum motivation in revealing that, and I also see little scum motivation in overstating her knowledge if she hadn't.

[Kagami]

@f16,

Why shouldn't we lynch you today, Paschendale?

this was where i started thinking plum scum

although none of plum's earlier posts were all that great, this is just the type of question i hate the most. i've never seen a town player ask this sort of question, and i can recall examples of scum players using it (like, most recently, pa in FEA)

also didn't like #180. i'm pretty sure you've read imperishable night, or at least skimmed the important parts. how do you not see similarities to my play re varsoon/pie there?

I'm always disappointed when I research these tells. Quick search of "Why shouldn't we lynch you" gives the following results (ignoring ongoing games):

PA in emblem: scum
Wake in M&M: town
Paperscraps in newbie 1416: town
Gibberish in newbie 1416 (shortly after PS): scum
Amrun in Open 507: town
Elyse in Open 496: town
DrP in newbie 1347: town
Psyche in Mini 1420: scum
Majiffy in NY 161: town
IceNinja in Mini 1398: town

list goes on. Obviously, these are divorced from their context, but it looks pretty null.

[Kagami]

If it's 10-3, town needs some power, but not a crazy amount. Something like 2 ICs of town-power is enough for balance, which maneuver gear alone would easily satisfy. If your statements about the setup are correct, scum likely has somewhat powerful roles of their own.

I interpret the mod announcement in the same way, but myko might be right that it could go either way. Idk.

Pasch, your stretching hard for lies that aren't there. I haven't said anything that is inconsistent with my beliefs, and I find gambits extremely distasteful.

[Kagami]

Obviously, these are divorced from their context

a quick scan over some of those games suggests you're right about this! those are divorced of their context

You're right that plum's is really out of the blue, whereas most these instances are provoked.

[Kagami]

If she had really figured what weak meant, there's very little scum motivation in revealing that, and I also see little scum motivation in overstating her knowledge if she hadn't.

i don't see your point here. plum-scum may have really known what was being hinted at from the discussion taking place, so "revealing" this is just a truth statement that's really rather null, if anything. i mean, i suppose she

could

have just said nothing about it, but it's a far cry from being any sort of alignment tell.

My thinking is that scum would be very careful not to tip their hats if they knew. In any case, I'm quite confident that they didn't know. It could very well be that she had a strong, correct suspicion about it, but scum-plum wouldn't be confident enough to claim weakness and risk being outed, so maybe you're right. My feeling is still town-plum.

[Kagami]

Because knowledge of what it meant from someone who hadn't claimed weak themselves implies the knowledge came from elsewhere (presumably fake-claims or other information that the mod might give to scum a la sabotage mafia). Scum who had actually gotten this knowledge would be very unlikely to let on, imo.

[Kagami]

and if that isn't the case, it's kagami who was quick of mind. That'd be a nice gambit. Low risk high reward etc. Confirm "just" bert (soz, but you know what I mean) while setting up a fakeclaim straight away, and getting a ton of towncred if nobody is ticked off by you thinking about the setup so much.

it's not out of the question. I know if I was well awake and my fakeclaim was something "weak human" or it was talked about by the mod or anything, it only takes some steady nerves to abuse Bert coming in like he did. I don't know kagami's nerves (yet). I don't think bert would claim the way he did if he were scum.

I would like to think I'm clever enough to do so, but if that were the case, pitoli's post would be a fairly severe violation of neutrality. It would also be very odd that there would only be a single "weak" human that is confusingly attached to the miller status, yet with weak being in a fake-claim.

Bert is town because
-he seems very genuinely confused about the weak thing
-his posts read like a bewildered townie
-I don't think scum would get a weak fake-claim with only one other weak player
-Since scum have been given fake-claims, why would they be given "Weak Human Miller" of all things?

[Kagami]

Well.
...

Brian/Kaze/Kagami/Bert all town

Plum/Pie/Myko lean town

Muffin has a better chance than raw probability to be town I haven't really read everything he's posted though.

...

lots of agreement here - my list atm:

Bert- town
Plum/Muffin/Myko/Brian/Pie/Dan - prob town
BRO/F-16 - null
Kaze - maybe scum
Pasch - prob scum

Everyone else - read undeveloped

I think I've explained most of these, but I think Muffin is prob town for the incredibly bold roleclaim; myko for the manner of his mod-spec and for doubting me in a seemingly genuine fashion; Brian for some of his comments during the weak convo, 80 notably; and Pie and Dan because their thinking seems to align with mine.

I think I'd like the F-16 argument fleshed out a bit. I get that he pushed the miller thing pretty hard, but isn't a miller claim pretty genuinely suspicious?

[Kagami]

Looks like you explain it directly in 92. Doesn't matter, still want the argument fleshed out.

[Kagami]

Similar reads + bias toward townreads rather than scumreads. The only thing I don't like about them is kaze as town; this doesn't really feel like town kaze.

[Kagami]

...
If I had a strong PR attached to being weak, I wouldn't claim it b/c I'd have assumed that scum were informed what it was. Claiming weak basically says "shoot me in the N3-5 range."

I think you might be biased in your scum-knowledge beliefs by your experience with sabotage mafia. Outside of that specific game, in which the central mechanic lay in scum knowing and sabotage town abilities, I've never heard of scum getting full knowledge of the town PRs.

[Kagami]

bro :<

why are you scum this game? :<

My least favorite posts are 256 and 265. What are yours?

[Kagami]

Which games have you played with him as scum?

[Kagami]

@Kaze: pretty much the entire town had posted something between my saying it was not conventional and revealing its meaning, and I think they'd have spoken up. Bro's point about that is likely false. The are also flavor reasons for my belief.

[Kagami]

@Kaze: pretty much the entire town had posted something between my saying it was not conventional and revealing its meaning, and I think they'd have spoken up. Bro's point about that is likely false. The are also flavor reasons for my belief.

Scum not knowing about the weak mechanic/modifier would be gamebreakingly bad modding.

I highly doubt that got through 4 people.

I have a response to that, but I'm already toeing the line with mod spec. I think it's possible.

[Kagami]

...

it's complete fucking BS and we need to lynch the fuck out of this before I go any more insane

How does fucking Brian Skies cause us to be more complete???!?!?!

[Kagami]

In case it's unclear, I think the BS/Brian Skies thing is silly. I see no reason why the probability that scum would make such a mistake would be radically higher than town making it. Pie feels very town to me.

That said, it also feels weird that scum Bro would go out on such a limb, but it's def possible. Effort post argument on F-16 isn't terrible. Pasch's crazy post followed by ninja vanish still seems like the most suspicious thing that's happened thus far.

[Kagami]

Day 1 ends in 11 days, 5 hours, 30 minutes

You never cut the day short with 11 days left.

Ever.

My feeling is the opposite. More time just means the actual town gets frustrated/disinterested. Power roles get revealed (often by non-PRs leaking their non-PRness). A crisp, clean lynch well before deadline is a very welcome thing.

[Kagami]

Bro, you've thrice complained that it would be impossible for scum not to know about the weak stuff, and have even said that it would be "gamebreakingly bad modding" for that to be so. If you're wrong, that's one hell of an insult to pitoli. I think it's unlikely that you'd be willing to tell the mod off like that, especially since you've modded yourself and not without difficulty. The only way you could be sure you're not seriously insulting pitoli is if you are scum and you were indeed told about the weak modifier.

VOTE: bro

fwiw, I think pasch is scum too~

[Kagami]

Now re Kagami:

If I'm wrong, then pitoli can use that to improve her next game. I'm outspoken about what I think of game balance/modding; I've called multiple mods shit for stuff that's happened in there games (not sure if I ever said it to one of their faces, I definitely have openly bitched about LotR Mafia both to Empking and elsewhere on site). If pitoli didn't tell scum about weak, and it's a thing that could be reasonably used to find scum, that's a bad setup problem that got through a bunch of people.

And my modding issues had nothing to do with the setup. I modded a fucking open. I don't get why the fuck you'd bring this up here.

Nice try swooping in right as I'm on F-16. Gg no re.

I searched your posts and saw nothing that looked like this. In the LotR game, you point out that the balance was bad and that gollum was unkillable, you do not tell Empking that he is a terrible mod.

I said nothing bad about your modding, only that you should recognize it isn't easy. I don't get this reaction.

[Kagami]

You can't possibly believe that saying someone's game is imbalanced carries the same connotation as telling them they are a terrible mod.

[Kagami]

...
Kagami, please don't. Bro is almost certainly not a better vote than Pasch. Basides, your argument makes almost zero sense. Bro's point was that your belief depended on something that was very unlikely from a balance perspective. Why do you think Bro wouldn't take the small risk, if it was that, of insulting the Mod, if he genuinely believed something was unviable from a balance perspective and that it was relevant to Town assumptions about gamestate? Arrrrgh.

...

The risk isn't small from town perspective, though. There's plenty of evidence to suggest that scum didn't know about it, or they would have reacted to it in the thread. I only recently realized there's a flavor-based reason for the weak modifier, which requires knowledge of the manga, and that there's a strong chance there's an additional mechanic that scum would likely be told about, or I would persist in the belief that scum couldn't have been told about it.

[Kagami]

He only has 4, I think. Not cause for alarm even if muffin had stayed on.

[Kagami]

C&H dead QT is also quite civil; I don't buy it.

If only two players are weak, which would seem to be the case, there's no reason scum would be told about it by default. At the very best case for town, it would give two less-than ICs, shifting balance by around 12%, which is far from terrible. The game could even be balanced with this possibility in mind, which would make a lot of sense, since the weak miller would likely claim straight out of the gate.

There is plenty of reason to believe scum didn't get mod information about it, and you've done little to explain your certainty that they did other than to say the mod is terrible if they didn't.

p-edit: plum - No, there was no special reason to believe they wouldn't have known about it beyond my own experience reading games. Bro points out that all abilities in sabotage mafia were revealed to scum, but that was a very special case in which the central mechanic was that scum can sabotage those abilities. In general, I don't think it's terribly common for scum to be told about town PRs and other abilities in a closed setup, and I don't understand why he would be so confident that they did.
I've since changed my opinion on this based on reading the manga. At the beginning of the game, I had only watched the anime, but the manga reveals that weak probably comes with something else that was hidden. Scum may very well have been told about that aspect.

[Kagami]

1) I disagree with your assessment of the likelihood based on my own experience in games and as a Moderator who's constructed Theme setups and had them reviewed.

Can you elaborate on this?

[Kagami]

plum, I have to think about it. I still think the certainty, certain enough to know that he's not being extremely offensive to someone, is unwarranted. I would have to be near 100% certain before I would say something like that. In no public conversation does he do anything like telling someone their modding is gamebreakingly bad.

[Kagami]

Kaze could if he checked his ego a little.

Kaze's ego is my favorite ego so far.

[Kagami]

o.o

you posted 2 pages ago.

[Kagami]

Btw, I think you're right that Eren is scum. I can't help but wonder how you knew, but meh

[Kagami]

Btw, I think you're right that Eren is scum. I can't help but wonder how you knew, but meh

Why do you think Eren is scum?

Deeper analysis of my role PM, while my role might be a bit boring, it comes with interesting flavor that's quite unlike Sasha's. It's clear to me, as it apparently it is to muffin, that when the mod said "flavor is not indicative of alignment," it does not mean "alignment is independent of flavor," but rather that alignment is related to flavor in a not obvious way.

plum, I have to think about it. I still think the certainty, certain enough to know that he's not being extremely offensive to someone, is unwarranted. I would have to be near 100% certain before I would say something like that. In no public conversation does he do anything like telling someone their modding is gamebreakingly bad.

Here's the problem with your logic:

I'm an asshole.

Yes, I've noticed. In fact, I would even call your assholishness a probable town-tell by comparison with sabo mafia.

[Kagami]

Looks like human-titan shifters have a specific implementation in this setup, and it looks to me like Eren lacks that for some reason. This is a good part speculation, but it meshes with muffin's idea, so I'm trying to think about what muffin must know in the hopes that I can clear him in my mind.

[Kagami]

Is there a reason we're setup speccing here? I'm not saying anything anyone's saying is wrong. I think we'll be skeptical of an Eren claim at least as much as any other claim, at last as far as flavor/character is concerned. So what are we gaining here?

Was just an idle comment that I typed while thinking about muffin, and kaze asked me to expound on it. I tend to setup spec a bit, especially in situations like this where I might be able to clear someone.

[Kagami]

Muffin, does your read on pasch stand up to the possibility that the scumteam might be incentivized to lynch me?

[Kagami]

Ok, so I don't really see the point of being cagey, since I already claimed my role essentially.

My character is Reiner Braun. Having only watched the anime, I had assumed I was a weak human because reiner is a lame side-character, and my flavor says I'm super sad because of my first mission.

Turns out that I'm a titan-shifter like Annie. Reiner is the armored titan who breaks wall maria near the beginning of the series. As such, it's reasonable to assume the weak modifier belongs to shifters.

If we assume that scum were informed of this in some way, it was either through a "weak" fake-claim or through special extra information.

If it's through the fake-claim, the fake-claim would have to be a shifter, so either Eren or Ymir. Eren would be the obvious choice for a fake-claim since he's not evil in the anime, and it corresponds with muffin's belief.

The other possibility is that scum were directly informed, which suggests that the weak modifier has additional significance. This is bolstered by the fact that both annie and reiner are uber-badasses, and it's weird that they have only disadvantages. Also, the opening flavor suggests that shifters are important. One distant possibility is that there's a mechanic wherein our roles change during the night phase (i.e. we shift), while it would be weird that we're not told such, it makes sense with my flavor since Reiner is amnesic about his titan-ness, and is also consistent with the super sad flavor. I think scum would be fully informed about all this if it's correct.

[Kagami]

:<

[Kagami]

If it makes you feel better, I had to spoil myself for this game, too.

[Kagami]

I know I'm weak, I assumed the reason was that I was a lame side character. Further research suggests that it's because I'm a shifter

[Kagami]

My role PM says that I'm a Weak Human and that I have no more special powers. My lack of special power is given special flavor in addition to my normal character flavor.

[Kagami]

Comparing with sasha: She gets some stuff about who she is after the vanilla townie statement. I have that too. She also has the 3d maneuver gear with a very simple, mechanical description. Instead, I have a named ability which essentially says that I have no ability, but in very flavorful terms and it talks about how sad I am.

p-edit: just flavor, but based on Bert's claim, I think it must be related to the weakness thing.

[Kagami]

my role pm says absolutely nothing about being a shifter, I only found that out after looking it up.

[Kagami]

That could be, but it's quite a coincidence that both annie and reiner have it; there are only 4 shifters in the series.

[Kagami]

o, misread that as not related to flavor. Yes, it might not be related to role.

[Kagami]

O.O

k, could just be an unlikely coincidence. That's not fun.

[Kagami]

That also means you're Eren, since you wouldn't have known ymir is a shifter. Now I'm really wondering what muffin knows.

[Kagami]

Wiki? What wiki?

[Kagami]

Thought I unvoted bro ages a while ago

UNVOTE:

Plum, no roles were revealed that weren't already revealed.

Tammy, normally I'd agree that flavor shouldn't be relevant, but muffin and kaze have both very clearly claimed that it is.

I actually think the hydra looks worse than F-16, whose wagon I haven't fully understood.

I want to vote pasch, but Bro's point on pasch isn't crazy - scum pasch would surely see that he's holding a weak position. Meta-dive also suggests this isn't scum-pasch, so idk.

[Kagami]

bert, kaze, pie, plum, and tammy for town. Muffin might go in there, curious what he has to say.

[Kagami]

Nothing was a ploy or whatever, I didn't even know the real flavor for my character at that point. At the time, I just didn't think it was likely that scum would know of the weak thing, and so I was sure you were cleared by your weak claim. I was quite happy to out myself as a wimpy wimp if it means that we get a conf-town out of it.

Plum and bro's confidence that this isn't the case has shaken that opinion, and pitoli's mod-post makes it clear that it is quite possible they were given a weak fake-claim.

[Kagami]

I would like to add though: If scum were just given a weak fake-claim, it's very possible they didn't realize what the weak part was referring to, just as bert failed to.

[Kagami]

(because I'm nearly 100% sure bert is town)

[Kagami]

If it's through the fake-claim, the fake-claim would have to be a shifter, so either Eren or Ymir. Eren would be the obvious choice for a fake-claim since he's not evil in the anime, and it corresponds with muffin's belief.

Uh, semi-serious question:

How do you know Ymir and Reiner are shifters but not Bertolt?

Looked up stuff only about my character, which mentioned Ymir, but didn't mention bertolt or any others. I should read the manga, but I haven't found time.

[Kagami]

kaze's reads are very sticky, it's not surprising that he would continue to think someone is scum who he thought was scum on page 1.

Micro 273 is discussable now, where he lynches himself after it takes too long to lynch his page 1-3 scumreads (one of whom is actual scum).

[Kagami]

See all those smileys, kaze? Practically a scum-claim.

[Kagami]

See all those smileys, kaze? Practically a scum-claim.

Hahahaha. Ha. >.>

(It's not, though.)

I'm actually pretty satisfied with Mastin's response. My case was crummy with the intent of provocation. Works out! Though I do dislike most of his reads.

Was joking, of course.

...

i have trouble believing f16 asked you to replace in to mentor him, and you came in ignoring all his reads, forming reads not even similar to his, controlling the vote, not consulting with him at all, etc etc as town

I did most of my posting logged into a desktop I was borrowing, on a break--was short on time. So, yes. I came in, not knowing what his reads were (he never told me, so I don't know--he told me that we were the lead wagon, and that's it. Okay, so there was some later stuff, but mostly? I don't know anything about his reads because he DIDN'T tell me)
...

Regardless of your play-style as hydra, this strikes me as incredibly odd. He really said, "hey, come help me out; I'm in trouble" without anything like "I'm totes sure that blah and blah are scum?" He said he needed you because he needed your persuasive abilities, and you're saying he wanted those abilities solely to avoid a lynch rather than to push his scumreads? This is way more consistent with scum-slot than town-slot.

[Kagami]

The wagon on F-16 and then Mastin just looks weaker and weaker as it goes. I think a lot of it really came from F-16's frenzied tone and his lack of focus. But now we're discussing arrogance and smilies? Really? And there's far too much reliance on meta arguments. People do not always play a certain way as scum and a certain way as town.

In terms of actual cases based on what people are saying in this game... Bro and Muffin are making the most sense right now. As is Tammy (though she's certainly wrong about me).

It was just pointed out that both the "arrogance" and "smilies" points were not serious.

[Kagami]

It was just pointed out that both the "arrogance" and "smilies" points were not serious.

Or you meant them seriously and are recanting. Or were purposefully trying to push people towards a mislynch despite not believing in your argument.

But if those were just lies, why not tell us what you actually think.

-________-

[Kagami]

That's a town-block not a scum group.

[Kagami]

^ I think there was some quote changing there. Let's lynch this guy.

[Kagami]

It's spelled

[redacted]

, right?

[Kagami]

I am just going to go ahead and guess that Kagami is notty. If I'm wrong, there will be more guessing.

what

[Kagami]

Nope, not seeing it. Care to explain?

[Kagami]

My lynchpool is pasch, kthx, and maybe mastin as a distant third.

[Kagami]

VOTE: pasch

Mostly for vca purposes, willing to vote/hammer anyone in my pool

[Kagami]

three and a half days, I think.

[Kagami]

you're not vanilla and if you claim it you need to be autolynched

I don't understand this. If you have the knowledge you're representing, wouldn't it have been great if he claimed vanilla and conf-scummed himself?

[Kagami]

Kaze, does the knowledge you and muffin seem to have suggest anything about muffin's alignment?

[Kagami]

I'm feeling reasonably confident that you and he are both town, but he clearly is suspicious of you based on his information. There's no reciprocal information about muffin?

p-edit: kaze lynch is bad lynch.

[Kagami]

bert lynch is bad too.

[Kagami]

Peer pressure! Someone didn't take their D.A.R.E srsly.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: kthx

[Kagami]

His read is that: bro, brian, ActionDan, and muffin are not lynchable, everyone else needs to be lynched asap?

I'm looking up whether his signature indicates a trust tell right now, otherwise he's very, very lynch-worthy.

[Kagami]

He may very well play more scummily on day 1 as town; worth the meta-dive

[Kagami]

Meh, behavior in happy tree friends largely disproves that theory. Good lynch.

[Kagami]

Only thing that makes it questionable is that I was leaning town on myko for reasons that I don't remember clearly.

[Kagami]

Lynch-pool remains as it was, vote is following my favorite lynch

[Kagami]

meh, peer pressure it is. We still have 3 days, so I don't see why you're so uppity about it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: pasch

[Kagami]

So you think mastin's push on plum was a distancing attempt?

[Kagami]

Only complaint I have on plum is that her being upset about setup spec and flavor claims seems unmotivated and artificial. Could be real though, some people have goofy hangups in this game. Other than that, she just hasn't hit any scumflags for me.

[Kagami]

I don't feel off on the wagon or its members, either. There's very little scum motivation to push a wagon so close to deadline, especially given the knowledge that most of the town has one-shot commuter power. A no lynch would be very good for scum and there's very little chance that another wagon would gain traction by deadline.

[Kagami]

"You missed that we crumbed masons, you must be scum" is a thoroughly ridiculous argument.

[Kagami]

Let's think about this kthx:

You are kagami. You are town, and early on one of your favorite lynches is Bro. You change your mind on that and somewhere along the line, and you don't really have support to lynch him anyway. Kthx comes in and acts incredibly scummy. Kthx and bro mysteriously townread each other despite this. What is kagami's interpretation of this? Hint: it's not that they're something akin to masons.

[Kagami]

Except we know scum have fakeclaims given to them.

[Kagami]

Ymir will not be happy if you lynch me....just sayin.

We don't care

Yeah, I'm guessing scum wouldn't care if they lynched town....

Oh balls.

My role PM didn't give me your alignment, though >:C

Though the role PM didn't specifically give alignment, when I read mine, I was 99.9% sure that whoever Ymir was (assuming you at this point), that person was town do to the role PM.
------------------------------------------------
Willing to lynch today:
Kazekirimaru
Bert
Plum
Kagami
Pieguyn
Paschendale
mastin2
Tammy

I will quickly and gladly bandwagon any of the above for a D1 lynch.

Ymir will not be happy if you lynch me....just sayin.

well, I caught up...and I like where my vote is at plus deadline is close

please stop walling so much. omg.

and the deadline isn't really close

True enough. I was off on the deadline. Plus, we just found scum (see below).

but Tammy, but Tammy, you might die during the night

:C

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Bert

Question is, does the rest of town see what I see?

Let's think about this kthx:

You are kagami. You are town, and early on one of your favorite lynches is Bro. You change your mind on that and somewhere along the line, and you don't really have support to lynch him anyway. Kthx comes in and acts incredibly scummy. Kthx and bro mysteriously townread each other despite this. What is kagami's interpretation of this? Hint: it's not that they're something akin to masons.

Point out the "acts incredibly scummy" parts of my posts thus far.

These are all pretty solidly that way. It doesn't really matter, though, since you're pretty much off the table given the claim.

[Kagami]

958: Hey everyone, I'm cool with lynching these people, all of whom I think could be scum: lists 8 people in a 13 person game. The 4 excluded people are moderately scummy and many on the list are obvtown.

916: Random flavor claim and pls don't lynch me

826: Vote for Bert

1008: I demand you make a point by point case against me.

[Kagami]

I don't think kaze and muffin are mason-like things at all, whatever association they have seems to make them think the other is scum rather than town.

[Kagami]

If you're getting at the unlikelihood of multiple pairings

[Kagami]

Fine.

UNVOTE:

Get your grievances out. I like holding the hammer, anyway.

wat.

Pasch needs to claim.

This post gives me bad feels, by the way, considering Bro wasn't on the Pasch wagon.

I'm still wondering why no one cares that pasch ignored the threat to claim. This seems pretty damning to me.

[Kagami]

Mastin, what am I to make of those reads? Every single one is "trust me, I can read this guy, he is ___," and that is from an incomplete reading of the game?

[Kagami]

This game just exploded into awful.

Diversion and positional play.

[Kagami]

oh also, if bro and kthnx are really town mason like things, then the chance there is scum in kaze or muffin is really high.

How do you interpret this, bro?

[Kagami]

Is there any actual argument against plum other than the wagon analysis with the assumption that pasch is somehow town?

[Kagami]

You don't require the hammer, kaze?

[Kagami]

Interesting, that changes my perspective on the past couple of pages slightly.

[Kagami]

bro/kthx, can you confirm that you

know

each other's alignment?

[Kagami]

Plum was the first to wonder aloud what the "weak" part of bert's claim means. If scum were informed about it, it seems much more likely that town-plum legit wondered about it than scum-plum faking it. If scum-plum had wanted to feign ignorance, I'd think she'd have made more of a show of it.

[Kagami]

K, that's good enough. As long as it is borderline if not completely bastardly that the mod would make you opposite alignments, it's good enough.

[Kagami]

-____-

I like the vote better than plum-vote, but I don't think that reasoning is correct.

[Kagami]

For me, the reasoning largely stems from pasch's arguments against me, which are wildly overreaching and demonstrably false. I saw no evidence of similar behavior in his games either as town or scum; so one interpretation is that he's adopting a new strategy as scum (crazy town-tunnel, since for some reason the meta supports that).

He also evaded claiming and intentionally delayed posting while at L-1 with threat to hammer, until that threat went away (which makes me think there's a chance of daytalk).

Mastin's last few posts reek of positioning and non-falsifiable, easily-reversible argumentation, so I'd be even more comfortable with a mastin lynch, but we're getting a little close to the deadline for that. Given mastin's distaste for bussing, I'm willing to interpret his entry as a possible chainsaw riding on the suspicion of plum that he knew bro had.

[Kagami]

AD has claimed dayvig

[Kagami]

or pseudo-claimed it, at least

[Kagami]

re:

How about we don't get more claims than necessary, yeah?

[Kagami]

With pie confirming the bro/kthx story, it would imply that all three of them would have to be scum if either of bro/kthx are scum. If Tammy's PM specifically states that she doesn't know her neighbors' alignments, and presumably Bro/kthxs' PMs do not (or they wouldn't be 95%+ sure), then I think they can reliably be said to know each others' alignment. I'm a little curious what more they want to hide, but if it's

really

best that we don't know, so be it.

We need to know who pasch neighborized. If it's AD, we lynch Pasch.

[Kagami]

Miller with only JoAT investigator (probably)... still digesting this one.

Neighborizer, 8ish one-shot commuters, flavor cop, JoAT, two best friends, and some other mystery non-VT role?

All of it seems too much unless the scum have multiple strongman shots or something like that.

[Kagami]

Pie: your analysis on brian is interesting, but it's missing the part where AD does something indicating that he might be a PR prior to brian's assertion that he's town. I'm pretty sure that the scumteam thought he might be a pr on the basis of the Dayvig joke, and most importantly, the request that both wagon targets claim.

If anything, Brian's statement is a knowledge-slip, and such a blatant one that I think it's much more likely that brian's telling the truth about his role than that he's scum.

[Kagami]

Muffin, why do you think that one of the three main characters is a bad guy? I don't see how revealing this could benefit scum

[Kagami]

Actually, pie, your wagons summary is making me think {mastin, pasch, bert}

[Kagami]

Though that would imply all three neighbors are town... possible, but kind of unlikely, I guess

[Kagami]

So you think scum-brian would assert AD is town with so little grounding?

[Kagami]

Like, the rest is silly, but 1058 looks as though he's either town-brian with the claimed role or scum-brian planning to claim such a role. It seems to me like the former is more likely.

[Kagami]

Who did you neighborize, pasch?

[Kagami]

"I targeted Bert, actually. But it didn't go through."

What? Is there some conditional aspect on your end, or was there a block?

[Kagami]

VOTE: bert

Miller is actually a pretty good fake-claim for a mafia ascetic.

[Kagami]

No one would block a neighborizer, and no one would rolestop bert.

[Kagami]

Well, I guess rolestopping bert is plausible if the rolestopping blocked nightkills, but that's a very uncommon role. Ascetic seems near certain to me, especially coupled with his general scumminess this game.

Only disappointing part of this theory is that it makes pasch town.

[Kagami]

The argument I see against brian is that he had that particular fake-claim given to him, and so he intentionally represented that he knew AD to be town. This also explains AD as an NK target to some extent: Levi was a bad-ass, it makes sense he would be a good PR.

The argument for him is basically as you describe.

[Kagami]

Pasch lying is obv possible, but it seems like a strange lie to me. I would be really surprised if scum-pasch would do anything other than legit neighborize someone, and I really don't think he would claim neighborizer without being one.

[Kagami]

It's in inoffensive claim. Doesn't require having results or targeting people every night. And it's more believable that the scum standby "1-shot BP". I'm not at all surprised that he claimed a PR considering the pressure on him yesterday. Claiming VT would have been a death sentence.

That said, I agree it's odd he'd claim it failed since by this line of reasoning Bert and Pasch are scum together. But I don't see why anyone would roleblock a neighbourizer(not to mention we have a three-person neighbourhood, two people claiming to be semi-confirmed to each other, and now a rather believable one-sided best friend roleclaim as it is.)

So, something has to give.

I don't think he would have fake-claimed and then come up with this particular way of getting out of it, especially when he had alternatives available to him. He safely could have claimed to neighbor AD or claimed to neighbor a scumbuddy, who could then claim to have used his maneuver gear and thus didn't get neighborized. By claiming to neighborize bert, he would have to expect that we'd come up with something like "bert is an ascetic" rather than "pasch is lying," which is a risky business.

[Kagami]

Also, Pasch hasn't exactly inspired me to think he's an evil genius; I think he's telling the truth.

[Kagami]

I think mastin is likely scum too, but both wagons would be town. Thinking on it now.

[Kagami]

Are you serious pasch? If you are telling us the truth, shouldn't this be obvious?

[Kagami]

There are only three possible events here:

A) pasch is lying about his role
B) bert is lying about his role
C) Some third party blocked pasch or stopped bert.

C is extremely unlikely, because who would block a neighborizer? There were other, better targets to block. On top of that, it implies scum has a roleblocker, which would basically make the 1-shot commuter ability, which is essentially the central mechanic of this setup, trivially neutralized.

[Kagami]

I am

extremely

sad that you might be town.

[Kagami]

Pasch, do you not realize the extent to which your claim has found scum? Do you really think you were role-blocked?

Roles are apparently superbly important here for finding scum. From what we can tell, many players "know" each others' alignment, though a large number of them don't want to reveal why for ~reasons~. If all the claims are to be believed, there are a set of best friends, as well as a one-directional best friends, all on top of a JoAT and a flavor cop, all on top of 8ish one-shot commuters, which is absurdly town-sided, even if the neighborhoods/neighborizer is given zero town-weight. Something is amiss.

[Kagami]

@mod: if, hypothetically, a player with an active ability were to fail because of a roleblock, would that player receive notification that the ability were blocked? What if it failed due to the target being an ascetic or commuter?

[Kagami]

as an aside, I think both tammy and kaze are town.

[Kagami]

as an aside, I think both tammy and kaze are town.

Do you think there is scum in our neighborhood?

I would have guessed so, but it's not unthinkable that 3 town were in the neighborhood with flavor or whatever leading you guys to suspect each other as a form of negative utility. So far, I don't have scummy feelings coming from the neighborhood.

[Kagami]

what do you think of how he asked why neither of the pseudo-masons died then when I gave an explanation he didn't seem at all interested in it?

and you think the F-16 wagon was entirely town driven?

Yes, I think mastin is very likely scum, and the wagon on his slot was town-driven.

[Kagami]

This is such a massive distraction.

Is there a strong reason to believe the neighborhood has scum in it, or is just that a scumless neighborhood seems implausible for balance reasons?

I think muffin said that one of the main characters is likely scum, how strong is that? With the levi flip (badass character gets powerful role), you would think mikasa would have something similarly powerful. Given the town-power we already have seen, that makes me think it's mikasa (not Eren) who is scum.

Also, I think that kaze would have been less open about revealing his flavor if Eren were actually scum, especially given that muffin had already announced that suspicion.


I also think that the tammy-bro thing is not very solid. We have much clearer evidence in front of us with the pasch neighborization report. Do we really think a neighborizer got roleblocked, especially given that at least one other player claimed better-than-vanilla? There's no way- either pasch or bert is scum, and it really looks to me like it's bert.

[Kagami]

I see, neighborhood makes sense.

Bro, have you asked pitoli if kthx is conf-town to you? If the PM really makes it 95% or whatever, that sounds to me like an unintentional ambiguity that she would certainly clear up.

[Kagami]

Your slot was uncommonly aloof to the weak discussion for it being so relevant to you.

[Kagami]

My weak is not that I don't "have" maneuver gear, simply that I can't use it as a night action. i.e. don't have the maneuver gear ability

My flavor "ability" is Penance: I am so super sad because of my first mission that I can't evade actions at night

[Kagami]

Just kill bert, he's claimed scum.

[Kagami]

The only person who's "weak"ness doesn't fit is bert's, since he doesn't have a flavor ability about why he can't evade actions. Mastin's is plausible

[Kagami]

he popcorned to me, but I already claimed, popcorn to kaze

[Kagami]

Nati played in a game where he was a serial killer who could kill people by knowing their ability names. It's a very odd thing to be worried about.

[Kagami]

My double vote ability is deactivated in LyLo/MyLo.

So you're told when it's lylo/mylo?

p-edit: wow

[Kagami]

I'm not sure it's worthwhile to nitpick these things unless you really think pitoli screwed up in giving people fake-claims.

[Kagami]

MC aside, my position remains the same as it's been all day:

Pasch was not blocked, Pasch failed to neighborize bert, Pasch or bert is scum, and it looks like it pretty much has to be bert.

[Kagami]

If kaze wanted to surprise us in lylo, he'd have used his fake-claim.

[Kagami]

MC aside, my position remains the same as it's been all day:

Pasch was not blocked, Pasch failed to neighborize bert, Pasch or bert is scum, and it looks like it pretty much has to be bert.

OK.

Don't set Pasch up tomorrow after I flip town. That's dangerous territory.

No one blocks a claimed neighborizer. No one, especially, would block a neighborizer when there's another claimed PR (kaze had claimed better than vanilla already). There was no roleblock and I really don't think pasch is scum given how he handled his claim and result.

You're scum, bert. I really wish it was pasch and not you, but alas.

[Kagami]

You're scum, bert. I really wish it was pasch and not you, but alas.

What will you do tomorrow in case I'm not?

Lynch kaze; but I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen.

[Kagami]

No bert, if you were not scum, it would mean pasch is lying or he got blocked. I think both are unlikely, but I'm pretty much sold on pasch having told the truth. In that case why would pasch be blocked rather than someone who claimed a probably-not-terrible PR? It wouldn't happen unless that probably-not-terrible PR is in fact on the scum-team.

[Kagami]

You don't "look" obv-scum bert; I'm not playing around with silly reads based on feelsies. The facts of the thread point to only a few possibilities, with you being scum as the most likely by far.

p-edit: possible, my stance is bert/mastin/X for scumteam. X being in the neighborhood makes sense, but I'm not feeling many scum-vides from any of them.

[Kagami]

Not sure mastin would bus at this stage, either.

[Kagami]

No, he qualifies it as him not bussing unless the benefits outweighed the risk. Once enough people believe he'd never bus, he might do it.

[Kagami]

Pasch, have you asked pitoli if you would receive notification in the event you were roleblocked?

[Kagami]

Pasch, have you asked pitoli if you would receive notification in the event you were roleblocked?

All I know is that nothing happened. I wasn't told why.

It's typically the case (to my limited knowledge) that when actions like this fail due to a roleblock, you are PMed that you were blocked. Unfortunately, Pitoli appears to have only modded one prior game and the roleblocker in it was killed night one having blocked someone without an action, so there's no mod-meta to back it up.

I'm surprised you didn't directly ask her what happened given that you should be very curious why it didn't go through.

[Kagami]

Pasch: Do you have a QT already, or were you to receive a QT link with your first invite?

p-edit: already asked this essentially. I don't think pitoli wants to answer publicly, but she might be willing to answer privately if pasch asks.

[Kagami]

Actually pasch, since we've all fully claimed, could you describe your role as thoroughly as possible (without directly quoting your role pm), together with any other information that would help us determine that you're telling the truth?

[Kagami]

Ok, I'm maybe misinterpreting something important, when you said "I wasn't informed of anything," did you mean that you didn't receive a PM at all, or that you weren't told why you failed?

[Kagami]

Holy crap people, you are not informed if you're roleblocked in almost all instances.

Firstly, no. If you are a role that receives a response (like, here's your neighborhood QT, you can start talking tomorrow night), you get a PM saying you failed. If you didn't, it would be unclear whether or not the mod simply forgot to inform you of your results, which would be bad for several reasons.

If neighborizing doesn't receive a response, then 1342 becomes very suspicious. Why wouldn't he think the neighborization went through?

[Kagami]

Please refer to the MS wiki for site conventions on role actions.

Players are not told that they are blocked unless it cannot be helped. For instance, a Cop who is blocked by a Roleblocker has to be told something for their investigation result. Normally the Cop is given a message like "No Result". (It is terrible form to simply not give the Cop any result at all and assume that the Cop understands that they were blocked - the Cop may instead question if the moderator forgot about their investigation.)

If the neighborizer would have been notified of a success, he has to be notified of a failure. If he wasn't notified of a success, he wouldn't have known it didn't go through without asking bert about it.

I'm sure many of you have seen this role, and usually what happens is the claimed neighborizer begins the day by asking his target if he got neighborized/monkizer/masonized. Pasch didn't.

I really don't think pasch got blocked anyway, so that discussion is ultimately pointless.

Bert, I don't suppose you got a PM inviting you to the neighborhood, but you just never checked it?

[Kagami]

Holy crap people, you are not informed if you're roleblocked in almost all instances.

Firstly, no. If you are a role that receives a response (like, here's your neighborhood QT, you can start talking tomorrow night), you get a PM saying you failed. If you didn't, it would be unclear whether or not the mod simply forgot to inform you of your results, which would be bad for several reasons.

If neighborizing doesn't receive a response, then 1342 becomes very suspicious. Why wouldn't he think the neighborization went through?

In my experience, the only time you'd get a response is as an investigator.

You might be right, but why did you think it failed? I'm thinking it's vaguely possible everything went fine and bert is just bad at reading PMs.

[Kagami]

... does anyone else think the scumteam would be certifiably insane to block a neighborizer, especially with kaze already having claimed better than vanilla? This seems crazy to me, but it kind of sounds like everyone might be telling the truth

[Kagami]

fanfiction tangent, based on brief research.

[Kagami]

Vengeful claim actually makes muffin slot a reasonable lynch, but I'd rather see mastin swing.

I think the pasch thing will work itself out given an additional day. I'm not sure what to conclude from it any more.

[Kagami]

I think bro and kthx overstated the mechanically conf-town aspect of their roles, though. I see absolutely no disadvantage to only being able to hammer, other than to thwart VCA (so this ability could be seen as a boon for scum). It's actually pretty powerful in town hands too: you could easily use it to make it look like someone got to L-1/L-2, then watch the poor scum attempt to quickhammer in lylo.

[Kagami]

Which one?

btw, pie is nearly conf-town for being the only vanilla.

[Kagami]

I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario in which mastin isn't scum.

p-edit: Having a vanilla is more than just convention, it's even a requirement for "Normal"-ness (which this game isn't, but still). I find it hard to believe there are zero vanillas, yet scum were given a vanilla fake-claim.

[Kagami]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mastin

[Kagami]

Wagon analysis, posting habits, and his "reads" all point to mastin as scum, as well as good ole' PoE.

My opinion on the pasch-bert thing is that it's likely to be revealed overnight given the massclaiming, so I'm willing to let that sit for now.

[Kagami]

I have a relatively high posterior on both bert and mastin as scum, but I'm pretty sure that tonight's actions will more or less confirm bert's alignment.

[Kagami]

was at me, I presume.

[Kagami]

I'm interested on Brian's opinion about the wagons before an actual lynch happens anyway.

[Kagami]

Probably would have been useful to save that for if we got into an even-number-of-players scenario...

[Kagami]

The pirate speaks the truth

[Kagami]

kaze's powers almost certainly don't work in mylo/lylo just as he said. That would be too stupid and I can't imagine it getting through review, especially if he's scum.

[Kagami]

The mylo stipulation is odd, though. Lylo makes perfect sense.

p-edit: no. I've been consulting on top of my usual job all month and haven't had a chance to work on that much. I'd had problems with finding players' alignments automatically due to the wild variation in how moderators handle flips, which I haven't yet solved.

[Kagami]

Yes, kaze was full of excrement.

Pie is the only one I really trust, but my current opinion is that there's a strong possibility that the entire neighborhood is town, but if it isn't, kaze is the scummo. I think that bro+kthx are probably town, but the "loss" they suffer from the other dying is completely silly.

Pie more or less gave the gist of my thoughts on why bert is a bad lynch for today. I have additional thoughts about how what goes down tonight might be interpreted, but they're little more than wild speculation until it actually happens.

Why do you think mastin is town?

[Kagami]

Why would you have won?

I never said bert was town, but he might be.

[Kagami]

Muffin, I get the other points from your early post, but why did your role PM indicate to you that this is 10:3?

p-edit: not lynching kaze today.

[Kagami]

We don't need another micro 273 -_-

[Kagami]

It's essentially a backup JoAT. Not crazy, imo. In any case, it's unreasonable to believe that scum fake-claims are so bad that we could just call them fake on the basis of their power. It's kind of a scummy power, but again, fake-claims.

[Kagami]

Kagami: Weak
Mastin: Weak
Bert: Weak Miller
Pirate: Vengeful Weak
Tammy: Bodyguard
Kaze: 1-shot Double-Voter (not mylo/lylo, presumably not endgame either, depending on the specifics of the bad guy win condition)
Brian: Informed Vanilla
Pie: Vanilla
Bro: Backup Anything, tied to kthx in weird way
Kthx: Super Secret, tied to Bro in weird way
Pasch: Neighborizer
Plum: Flavor cop (dead)
AD: JoAT (dead)

[Kagami]

Also: Tammy-Bert-Kaze neighbors.