Mini 1000: The Brave and the Beautiful (Game Over)
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Iecerint Survivor
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I suppose that means we can post. Transferrrring vote:
Vote: Ythan-
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Shotty to the Body wrote:Netopalis wrote:Hey, folks. Woo! A few names I've played with before - in particular, shout-outs to Ythan, bv310 and SK.-
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1. For fun. And because I like most of the people on the site.
2. I don't lick them.
3. D'ya mean early game? I look for scumtells as quickly as possible and go with them. For example, I'm voting Ythan because I think scum would be more disposed to be worried about the banner's effects on role plausibility than town.
4. Ordered, logical, drawn-out. But I probably rely on gut more than I care to admit.
5. ERROR
6. Fables Grimmafia-
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This doesn't make any sense. I'd imagine that Neto does this regardless of his alignment, and that he manipulates it to serve his interests as scum. If he's town, participating lets him do his thing. If he's not, we may catch him doing something outrageous with the information. Unless you have meta to suggest otherwise (in which case, I'd think you'd vote him), I don't understand your attitude here.Robocopter87 wrote:Everyone is falling victim to the infamous Neto RVS questions that give him a foundation for his scumhunting! Sorry Neto, I've been tricked by you. I've played with you. I basically grew up on Mafia with you. So all your tricks are known to me. I haven't seen you in awhile. So you might have some new ones.-
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Still makes no sense. Your apparent way of dealing with a player you find hard to read is to reduce their capacity to produce content.-
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So, Robo is scummy for something, and I'm scummy for pointing out that the scummy thing was scummy?
That makes no sense.-
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This is the bit you're talking about? Please be clear. To my eye, my response is pretty identical to your point that Robo was scummy for his response to normalNeto (plus some explanation for why I think Robo's perspective is mistaken at best).Iecerint wrote:
This doesn't make any sense. I'd imagine that Neto does this regardless of his alignment, and that he manipulates it to serve his interests as scum. If he's town, participating lets him do his thing. If he's not, we may catch him doing something outrageous with the information. Unless you have meta to suggest otherwise (in which case, I'd think you'd vote him), I don't understand your attitude here.Robocopter87 wrote:Everyone is falling victim to the infamous Neto RVS questions that give him a foundation for his scumhunting! Sorry Neto, I've been tricked by you. I've played with you. I basically grew up on Mafia with you. So all your tricks are known to me. I haven't seen you in awhile. So you might have some new ones.-
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Way to totally ignore my question @ Ythan.
(That's L-2.)-
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Well, that was neat.
If we look at RC's global posting pattern on the site, we may get an idea of when the "Zerg Rush" ability was sent in. This is relevant based on the probability that it was sent in prior to robo claiming needing an extra vote to lynch him.
Ythan, why is that post scummy?-
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Probability that one of the scum is Sarah Kerrigan is near 100%. Just sayin.-
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^ Uh, why are you asking for those details now?-
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The parsimonious explanation is that scum saw that he would be quiclynched with Zerg Rush. They miscalculated because he happened to have a difference lynch threshold.
This theory is no good if RC posted elsewhere on the site AFTER the extra lynch vote claim and before RC's Zerg Rush post.
The alternate theory is that Roboscum has mischievously arranged these circumstances to make it appear that he has cleared himself. This is comparatively remote IMO.-
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I said that I thought it was comparatively remote.-
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I think it's very unlikely that Robo is scum. An extra vote (appearing to put him at L-1) in that time could have totally messed up a hypothetical ZergRush fake "confirm" on him and led to a real lynch.
The only way it is possible is if Robo was lying about his lynch threshold +1 ability altogether and he was actually just immune to the ZergRush altogether or something. Otherwise, the plan was too risky. And even WITH that, there's no reason for scum to pull a stunt like that D1.
Doublealso, that kind of plan posits either very hardcore pregame talk or daytalk. Several players seem to be accepting this premise implicitly, which is interesting. In light of the former possibility, I wish I'd made a note of the confirm order. I sent my confirm via PM rather than posting in the thread, so the posted confirms aren't a good cipher.-
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Furcolow, are you not reading the thread very well, or do you really think that present circumstances make Robo more likely to be scum?-
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Oh. I misread it as "We can find a better lynch; namely, robocopter."
Question withdrawn.-
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I think it would take a really rogue kind of acting-alone scumplayer to pull that kind of thing off if a scumfriend were the one closest to lynch. I'm sure there are some player personalities that might do it, but I think they're rare.
This is doubly true if ZR is a one-time ability, since it could probably give scum a free lynch under ordinary circumstances, which I'd see as a more effective use of the ability.
Again, it IS sort of vacuously possible that there is a conspiracy, but it is more remote.-
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My top single suspect up to this point is Millar. I think his vote for Robotown was the most bizarre, and I think his play in the aftermath makes little sense.
My second-tier is Neto-S2B as a scumpair. First, Neto weakly attacks S2B out of nowhere. Then, S2B calls him out for "distancing" with me. In light of other things that have happened, these seems like an unusual place for one's focus. It's also an odd choice of words. For example, Neto and I hadn't attacked one another at all, so saying that we're distancing from one another is totally bogus. It reads like "Let's distance!" "LOL OK!" to me.
I'll be in rural Kentucky this weekend visiting family. I may not have regular access to the computer.V/LA until Monday.-
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To clarify:
Neto: Let's distance! (When he attacked you literally out of nowhere)
S2B: LOL OK! (When you counter-attacked saying that Neto was doing lame weak distancing with me.)-
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Had a chance to catch up. Notes follow. First bit are from memory from where I stopped:
1. I agree with most of Muffin's points about millar. A lot of it is sort of a stretch, but that's just because he did all the posts for the sake of completion. Flipside is that I sometimes go for that angle as scum, so.
2. Agree with Neto's evaluation of said post.
3. Robo's "corrective" post is shifty in that a lot of his "corrections" are like "that wasn't that much of a big deal" when millar intentionally did a complete PBPA. And the complete PBPA was warranted in that part of the argument against millar was vacuity.
4. Millar's "well I am pro-town so I am clearly listing myself as scum" bit is so endearingly cute that I can't really think that it would come from scum. It may indicate daytalk if he is scum. If millar flips scum, looking at the players who appeared to assume daytalk around the Zerg Rush bit might be informative.
Now it's purely chronological:
5. Furcolow's blatant pro-opting of my Neto-S2B scumteam postulate is O.o, especially since he cites something that's not different from the prior point and argues that it negates it.
6. Ythan's posts continue to seem really peripheral. I don't get the impression that he really cares how people answer his questions. My only experience with him is a scum iso I read through, though, and he made a point to wallpost "strategy" in that game. So...I am meta-poor with him. I'm at bottom of page 13.
7. Kdub/Neto 331.332 interaction reads weird to me. Kdub's first two paragraphs are really equivocal. Asking Neto about S2B is good, though. Neto's response is different from what I remembered his case on S2B being ("To change the subject, S2B is in this game! And suspicious!"), and he apologizes for having made it.
8. Furcolow's suggestion that Muffin was connected to the Zerg Rush ability doesn't make sense to me. What is the basis for that belief? It looks like he's just bullying him.
9. I predict that SX will say mean things about Furcolow's subsequent <3meta<3 moments. I loved him a little there, though.
10. I think Robo has misunderstood Furcolow's point near the bottom of page 14. Furcolow isn't really framing said argument very aggressively, so I can't blame him for misundertanding.
11, Lol @ Furco wanting to claim as the Cop.
12. Millar's suggestion that blowing things up is in any way related to what was clearly AN ACTION PERFORMED BY SARAH KERRIGAN, SCUM GODDESS, MADE MORE OBVIOUS BY THE FACT THAT SAINTKERRIGAN IS OUR CO-MOD, is VERY DUMB. I am sort of O.O
13. Furcolow saying "buddy" is a GOD HE IS JUST TRYING TO BE SCUMMY moment. I again don't understand.
14. MoI is my boyfriend for using meta nullification on a player he thinks is scummy. MoI is probably town if Furcolow is scum. The chronology of his post is a a little weird; I'd like it if he could explain it to me. Also, why didn't you yell at me for keeping my vote on Ythan when I said Millar was top scum? I ask because you attack S2B for as much.
15. Want to know why Millar brought up Jack in the following post. Are you saying that Jack is a bad player?
16. Wow I am totally in love with MoI this game.
17. Millar's post about not wanting to stand out because he plays like a survivor (and everyone does, regardless of whether they admit it, or something) is extremely scummy (as it's a justification for apparently deliberately poor play), but also sounds honest. He is extremely frustrating.
18. Millar's subsequent claim that he has "sacrificed himself" is similarly bizarre. What the hell is he talking about? In whose universe was he Jesus on the cross? But I still get a weirdly honest vibe.
19. Also, Neto is more well-behaved lately. Or, more accurately, I think several of his posts are scummy, but in the same way that I thought his posts were really scummy in Nouns mafia, where I mislynched him D1. So yeah. This is bottom of page 15.
20. Millar is getting total Woobiefication from me on page 16.
21. Ythan again appears not to really care what's going on. Some "I hope you're lynched" rhetoric is all I get.
22. Furco kept tabs on who was online during the Zerg Rush? Is that based on looking at Members Currently Online at said time, or viamsutilsthe search function?
23. Do not like Robo's push on Furco. He's still probably town because of ZR, though.
24. Hey, random thought secondary to Robo's Furco push. I was reflecting on the plausibility of Tanya being a fakeclaim. But. Sarah Kerrigan is a witch from an RTS. Tanya appears to be a sort of Chaotic Neutral-tier witch from an RTS. So...that aspect does fit.
25. I love MoI so so so so so so much.
26. I don't understand Furco's explanation for removing bv and me from the "maybe Sarah Kerrigan" list. Also, please clarify the point of the list to me if I misunderstand it. Also, keep in mind that there was probably a lag between "sent in action" and "RC posted action."
27. SX's start post is intriguing. I wonder why he for all intents and purposes left Furco and Millar off the lynch wagon, though.
28. SX's claim that the first pages are "jibber jabber" when HELLO ALERT THERE WAS A FAILED SUB-THRESHOLD LYNCH ON A PLAYER ALERT INFORMATION SOURCE INFORMATION SOURCE. But SX somehow always takes this attitude toward everything I find interesting about a game and wins it, presuming that he's town. Also, I don't think this kind of approach is historically scumSX AFAIK, particularly given lack of a replace-in. If he took longer to post in than might have been expected, Daytalk could make up the difference, but it's a long-shot.
So, I cautiously trust SX, but I'd like it if he could give me another nugget or so.-
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SX, when do you intend to reveal the information? D2, or later than that?
Are you choosing your wagon because they're perceived town, or for different reasons?
Use your discretion.-
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Yes, well, I told you to use your discretion, etc.
I could come up with scum machinations, but I'll let whoever do so, since, ye know, I'm fairly certain they don't apply.-
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@ MO, I'm not professing love for you on the basis of any perceived breadcrumb, if that's what you're implying.
Your post seemed like it would've been based on a readthrough, but you described events all out-of-order, so I figured you were writing it all from memory. It wasn't clear how you were organizing your thoughts, though, so I asked if there was some kind of narrative. It's not a hugely important point; just might help me read your post a little.
I kept voting Ythan because I knew the lynch threshold was lowered, and I wouldn't be able to change it while I was V/LA. Also, while my vote for him was RVS, it wasn't random. And his posting since then has also been lackluster IMO. The problem is that I'm metapoor with him; I've only read one scumgame that was a lot different from this Ythan. So, it's not a confident read. And now I'm not one of SX's chosen saints.
Of those in the D1 lynch running, I think I'd rather see Shotty or Furco go than Millar. Reasoning (already listed) is just that millar's scummy-seeming posts subjectively seem honest to me.-
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Yuri with my character is probably considerably above-average, though. Breadcrumb.-
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The thing is, given that you (fake?)claimed Tanya, RTS Chaotic Neutral goddess, the chance that YOU are in fact Sarah Kerrigan, scum RTS Chaotic Evil goddess with Zerg Rush is much higher than the background probability.-
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Anyone have any meta on RC's fakeclaim-distributing history?-
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OK, so, my thinking is that giving players fakeclaims that maximally resemble their actual roles would be a good balancing move by the Mod because it minimizes the extent to which claim analysis per se could break the game in 95% of cases while maintaining aesthetic symmetry. For example, giving an RTS villain and RTS fakeclaim would preserve any game genre pattern analysis ("too many shooter heroines!") and so forth.
It doesn't work in THIS case only because Zerg flavor has been mod-confirmed in-thread and said player (in the universe where Tanya=Sarah) happened to be scummy enough to get a claim out there. But that's a really unusual circumstance, except for the fact that it appears to be in-play.
Alternate possibility is that the game has built-in doubles and we happened to uncover the (sorta scummy) player who corresponds to Sarah Kerrigan who simultaneously apparently has a funky role ability claim (I've never played C&C except once when I was 12 or something).-
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No fakeclaims (by which I mean fake nameclaims or better, but really the floor is nameclaims) is pretty rare on MS, even if it's not out of the question for a mini with a large subset of possible roles. It's even more rare for a game where flavor knowledge is advertised as being of minimal importance (which I think it was; it isn't relevant to me, so I'm not 100% sure).
So while it's POSSIBLE that scum have no fakeclaims, I would not say that it is the default hypothesis.
And given that they have them, Tanya-Sarah is higher than background probability as a pair.-
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V/LA until Friday. Summer retreat with an academic group.
I'll be well-behaved after this one; I promise.-
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OK, so, not much happened.
@ Neto -- I made a flavor/outguess-type argument for Furco being scum. There's also that he's fallaciously claiming that he can confirm himself with his ability and so on. The latter you can explain away by cross-supplying "he is clueless" (which, I mean, that is historically an OK inference here), but you can't with the former.
Shotty wouldn't break my heart.-
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Ythan, could you please articulate the evidence against Millar for a lynch?-
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Millar looks town to me, too. Killing one of Shotty, Furco would be best. Ythan and bv are at the next tier.-
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@ Y, you're not even in my top tier, so, ye know, I see little reason to go above-and-beyond calling for your lynch when there may be better suspects.
The short version is that I don't think you're scumhunting and I think you've slipped a few times (e.g. complaining about some abilities being more a priori feasible pregame)
The not scumhunting ties into your desire to lynch Millar even though I don't remember you ever really articulating why you think he's scum. One simple explanation is that you don't think he's scum, but still want to lynch him. Your deflection is consistent with that.
@ Muffin -- I'm humoring SX for the time being. That's (part of) why I'm still on Y. I'm assuming he'll let us lynch someone who isn't millar if it comes to it, though.-
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I'm not tunneling on you, Furco. If anything, I'm considering too many possibilities.
I was following Stars Aligned, so I'm well aware that you can look scummy as town.-
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If you think he is town, you shouldn't lynch him. He has claimed a PR.-
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Your not scumhunting should be self-explanatory. AFAICT, your posts are little summaries of past players' points. I don't think you've ever followed up on a question you've asked someone. I do not get the sense that you are very concerned about the outcome of the D1 lynch.
The complaining is from post 19. Looking back at the actual post, I suppose "complaining" probably isn't the best word, but I still think it's the sort of thing that would occur to scum more readily than town.-
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Yes and no. It is not scummy in the sense "this is scum machinations," but rather in the sense "potential scumslip." I think town is less likely to be concerned about the eventuality of claiming and having a role that is difficult to believe -- and even if they did, the response would be something like "My role doesn't seem so town, just sayin" or whatever. Not everyone would respond the same way as me, sure, but it's a stretch for me to imagine a person who has your kind of response as town.
I also mentioned this pages and pages and pages ago, and another player (Muffin, I think) agreed with me. So...I dunno what to make of your casting doubt on it at this point. I suppose it indicates you weren't paying much attention early on.
You're pretty much making the same play as Furco with the other. I list some things about your play I don't like; you respond by implicitly arguing that it's just the way you are, and it's my problem if I don't accept anti-town performance.-
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Case on Shotty -- Utterly bizarre interaction with Neto
Case on Furco -- Flavorlogic implies Tanya may be a Sarahscum fakeclaim, and we know Sarah is in the game due to ZR
Case on Millar -- Anti-town play
Case on Ythan -- Anti-town mindset-
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I see no reason to state my case on you in detail yet again. People can read my prior posts to get the justifications.
Also, your continued attempts to discredit me without offering a defense is noted.-
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Also, no one should lynch millar until he has claimed. We don't get information about player abilities when they flip, so not knowing lynched players' abilities puts us at a big disadvantage.-
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Well, I guess this means I was right about him being Kerrigan.-
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The only way Kerrigan could possibly be town is. Well, it would pretty much be impossible.
For one, millar would've dropped some hints indicating that my assumption that the Zerg Rush was scum-ergenic was incorrect. That never happened IIRC.
I really thought Furco was Kerriscum, but he clearly isn't, so I think he's more likely to be town via similarly potentially fallacious outguessing (e.g. double RTS goddess scumteam is lame).
The reason it's somewhat ambiguous (e.g. she flipped humanKerrigan rather than zergKerrigan) is that the set-up wants us to speculate about alignment, and that's a pointless mechanic if the scum all flip like YE SCUM GODDESS, REJOICE, YE TOWNE.-
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Some possibilities where millar was town off the top of my head:
1. Scum have a Janitor role that works on lynches and made millar flip Kerrigan.
2. There are 2 Kerrigans in this game. The scum one (Furco, because KerriganKerriganTanya is like a total wall-banger) is zerg-version Kerrigan.
But these are totally out-there.
I want Robo to explain why he's iffy on millar at this point. Cuz I mean.-
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Regarding SX's role --
We can't know for sure, but my guess is that he could determine how many scum were on the wagon or something similar. This really isn't very interesting at this point, because scum could have targeted him to avoid a massclear as easily as anything else, especially given the wagon was a millar/furco/shotty 3-way in there. But let me know if you see a crumb or something to the contrary.
@ muffin -- I don't know what to make of the "destroyed" flavor being reused. The first one is clearly the lynch flavor so....-
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Oh, another point --
We should've done this yesterday, but if anyone has an a priori scummy rolename, they should probably nameclaim (only!) it now. You will function as a Miller when you flip otherwise.
Give everyone a chance to weigh against the above in case I'm forgetting something before you do so, though.-
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Yeah, my point is that those are both very low-probability events. The janitorly role would have to be like "makes X flip as you." Unlikely to be here.
Millar claimed something?
I wanted to totally mutilate Furco until I saw millar's flip. Having seen it, I don't want to do as much.-
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This was my speculation at that last bit.Iecerint wrote:The reason it's somewhat ambiguous (e.g. she flipped humanKerrigan rather than zergKerrigan) is that the set-up wants us to speculate about alignment, and that's a pointless mechanic if the scum all flip like YE SCUM GODDESS, REJOICE, YE TOWNE.-
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Mr. Y, are you unsatisfied with the interpretation of Furco's hammer (i.e. a non-scum one), or with scumKerrigan flipping humanKerrigan due to this:
Assuming the latter -- could you clarify your position? Was millar scum, or not?ReaperCharlie wrote:Character name will be revealed, but you are left to speculate at their alignment, and the true powers they might have possessed.-
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OK. Then you're just upset with the perceived game setup.-
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I don't think it's a stretch because if the scum are THAT obvious, there's no point to alignment-blind flips whatsoever.
The alternative (much more remote IMO) possibility as I see it is that there is both a town human Kerrigan (millar) and a scum Infested Kerrigan. But you clearly don't believe this, because you've said that you think millar is scum.
You appear to think both that millar was scum and that he wasn't the ZergRush character. So...do you think that humanKerrigan and zergKerrigan are scumfriends? Do you think zergKerrigan is the SK? To me, those are more out-there theories than that more ambiguous flips make the alignment blindness meaningful.
If there's some third way I'm not getting, please educate me.-
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Iecerint Survivor
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OK, that's true, but that doesn't really answer or even address my questions.
Is your flavor discussion of human/infested Kerrigan relevant to this game itself in some way, or are you just complaining about the flavor implementation? Assuming the former, please clarify your position. I am having to doublethink hardcore to understand it. The scenarios I listed in my prior post are examples of the bizarre results of said doublethink.-
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I am asking him a very simple question (well, a series of related simple questions), and he is being evasive. His answer itself probably would not have been interesting; the fact that he is deflecting is interesting.
My supposition is that we're working with a normal lynch threshold, but we're unlikely to get confirmation until RC's, ah, situation is resolved.-
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1. I ask you how your belief in millar being scum squares with her not being the source of the Zerg Rush; you respond by pointing out that 1 scum could have a scummy role without breaking the game, which has nothing to do with the question asked.
2. In the process of trying to infer an answer from your non-response, I ask whether your comment about the human/infested Kerrigan bit is game-relevant (in which case I'm confused) or a complaint about the game setup (in which case you are being sort of misleading and wasting my life with your posts, but at least I can understand your perspective); you incredibly lamely argue that it was a "concern" rather than a "complaint," which has nothing to do with anything and is again a huge evasion.
Both of these events happened on this page (680 and 682).-
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Iecerint Survivor
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Oh my. I didn't think anything would be sufficient to make me OK with lynching Furco, but he's sort of trying his best, isn't he?
Preview edit: Shotty had questions for me?-
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She's a sweetie before being Infested, though, and she's apparently going to be let free in the sequel being released in like 6 days (!!!).
There are lots of reasons to suspect Ythan, and his continued dismissal and negation of all attacks against him is not a pro-town strategy. Calling it "his prostyle" is also bogus, because I've read games where he won scummies as a wallposter (as scum, but ye know) IIRC.
On the other hand, whatever in the world possessed Furco to want to lynch MoI is sort of beyond me. I'm more sympathetic to bv and kdub, though.-
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I must be confusing you with someone else, then. The avatar was of like Fabio lying out or something, though. I know it started with a Y, at least.
I've articulated why you're scummy over and over; you just either can't be bothered to take them seriously, or you think that doing as much will discredit them and minimize their threat to you.-
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