Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[Titus]

Eve and GuiltyLion, let's talk.

[Titus]

how's it going Titus

i am the town one in this game

Possiblity. I am thinking you might be scum, you might not be. Your flip is high value for VCA to me though.

GuiltyLion's vote park looks like scum to me regardless of your alignment, so I want to start there too.

[Titus]

If GuiltyLion is scum, his partner is not likely skitter or acryon. It would only be BBMolla if scum desperately felt scared and needed to control the wagons today, and I don't see that happening.

That leaves Eve, TLDNE, Karnage and Auro. I don't see scum!GL bussing Karnage here. So remove Karnage.

So if GL is scum, then Eve, TLDNE, or Auro is likely his partner.

[Titus]

Wait this is a three scum left game, so that means two out of those three are likely scum.

[Titus]

Now I'm going to run the numbers if GL is town.

Very little wagon participation suggests Karnage is town. Scum are likely off the wagon as well. I would tenatively put BBMolla as scum in that setup because of scum wanting to get wagons going. That's weak though. I just don't like all the scum off the major town wagons in a T v T.

That still leaves two scum in Eve, TLDNE, and Auro.

If we suppose Karnage is scum, then we can safely put skitter and GL as town. BBMolla scum equity increases. Then you'd look at one off the wagons to ensure that they could swing a wagon if need be.

Pedit: Which post? Sorry I got a bit eggheady this morning.

[Titus]

Why do you consider GL to be voteparking but not skitter?

- Smarter

I think this is it.

I consider GL's votepark more of a scummy votepark. Skitter looks more like a tunnel than a lazy votepark if that makes sense from just eyeballing the VCA.

[Titus]

Spoiler: Quotes

Votecount 1.3

Target	Wagon
GuiltyLion (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (5), acryon (15)
The Limit Does Not Exist (2)	SausasaurusRex (6), Auro (42)
nomnomnom (2)	Karnage (26), Eve (118)
acryon (2)	skitter30 (104), GuiltyLion (106)
Eve (1)	Allomancer (14)
Karnage (1)	BBmolla (7)
Not Voting (1)	nomnomnom (179)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.4

Target	Wagon
acryon (3)	skitter30 (104), GuiltyLion (106), Allomancer (215)
nomnomnom (2)	Karnage (26), Eve (118)
Allomancer (2)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Karnage (1)	BBmolla (7)
Not Voting (1)	SausasaurusRex (219)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Btw @mod, when will sarusuarus rex or however you spell it be prodded?

I prod players after 48 hours of inactivity.

Votecount 1.5

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (241)
acryon (2)	Allomancer (215), BBmolla (243)
nomnomnom (1)	Karnage (26)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.12

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (3)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
BBmolla (1)	Eve (361)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.18

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), Eve (533), acryon (711), The Limit Does Not Exist (713)
Eve (2)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299), GuiltyLion (717)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Votecount 1.26

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (3)	GuiltyLion (1076), The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Eve (1)	nomnomnom (1238)
Not Voting (6)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), SausasaurusRex (1157), acryon (1163), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.27

Target	Wagon
Karnage (3)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256), nomnomnom (1271)
nomnomnom (3)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272)
Allomancer (1)	acryon (1252)
Not Voting (4)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), SausasaurusRex (1157), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (6)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272), acryon (1286), SausasaurusRex (1289), nomnomnom (1300)
Karnage (2)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256)
Not Voting (3)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. nomnomnom has been lynched.

When I look at these VCs, I see a very sheepish, survivalist and static GuiltyLion. He is more about voting the counter when he's wagoned early, and then just lurks on the popular wagons. That's exactly where someone would want to be avoiding the cop.

Pedit: I inferred the Allomancer wagon derailed because he claimed Traffic Analyst. Is this not the case?

[Titus]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Titus]

Wait, Titus, where did you read that he claimed TA?

I didn't. I inferred that's why his wagon dissolved and he was the N1 nightkill. I haven't read on subbing in. It's not what I do.

[Titus]

@Titus: Allo softclaimed when he was at L-1. Acryon unvoted on the basis that he thought allo was following town meta (I think), GL unvoted because we saw the soft, that deflated the wagon.

- Smarter

because he saw the soft* although I did see it too

- Smarter

Ok that's good enough for me. Scum presumably saw the soft then making it a hard claim. My analysis should still remain intact.

[Titus]

@TLDNE: That there are 3 scum.

Don't TR me for this alone. I've forgotten who my scumbuddies are as scum before. I'm an absent minded professor. You are right I am town, but slips just aren't things people should use IMO.

[Titus]

I guess mislynching nom isn’t really a point in his favor, but at that point I think most people were townreading nom, and I think he was one of the first people to push her so I definitely wouldn’t have called that static or survivalistic.

- Smarter

He might push her with his word, but his votes show differently. Pushing someone but waiting on a wagon to form before voting is pretty much waiting for a crowd. It's our votes that are our power, not our words.

[Titus]

Okay then, help lynch scum today and I'll TR you

Fair enough, but I need your vote Auro. Skitter doesn't feel like scum based on the wagons.

[Titus]

nsg took the pagetop away from me

Anyway I think my original point still stands - skitter and GL have made similar pushes on the same people since late D1, starting with karnage/nom yesterday and continuing with karnage today. I don’t really understand how one is lazy voteparking but not the other.

- Smarter

Guilty is following Skitter IMO.

A lot of people don't understand my VCA. My VCA involves looking at wagons, solving what scum want to do, and figuring out who fits that pattern.

Sometimes we get the pattern first, then solve for what scum wanted and who fits that as well.

[Titus]

I guess mislynching nom isn’t really a point in his favor, but at that point I think most people were townreading nom, and I think he was one of the first people to push her so I definitely wouldn’t have called that static or survivalistic.

- Smarter

He might push her with his word, but his votes show differently. Pushing someone but waiting on a wagon to form before voting is pretty much waiting for a crowd. It's our votes that are our power, not our words.

On D1, he was explicitly told not to be on the wagon and I remember he said “I would be voting karnage but out of respect for wagon comp I won’t, this is me voting him in spirit.” I don’t think we can necessarily take lack of voting at face value because of this.

- Smarter

And town vote anyway. It's survivalist to go, gee I won't vote scum dead because someone else wanted me not to. If I was in GuiltyLion's spot, I'd be looking at people who were trying to peel the Karnage wagon in this manner.

[Titus]

VOTE: karnage

VOTE: Karnage

This is pretty blatant following, do you think scum does that?

- Smarter

Yes

[Titus]

Ok, we'll agree to disagree. Meanwhile, I'll hunt GuiltyLion's partner.

[Titus]

If I was in GuiltyLion's spot, I'd be looking at people who were trying to peel the Karnage wagon in this manner.

Sorry can you explain what this means? I think I’ve been away from mafia for too long.. what is “peel the Karnage wagon” and in what manner?

- Smarter

If I had a scumread, I'd just vote them.

Someone trying to convince me to not vote the scum is peeling for the scum. It's a different way of saying defending but more specific. It's kinda Titusese though. It's peeling people away from the wagon.

After all, if scum get lynched you can check people off the wagon. If town get lynched, you can still check more than half the game. Controlling wagons is stuff for late game, not early game.

[Titus]

I am fine. Let's lynch Guilty Lion.

[Titus]

Why is he scum? Because he voteparked?

-Smart

Because of my VCA, yes.

[Titus]

if people think i'm scum why don't you just vote me or tell me why instead of pussy-footing around maybe calling me scum if other people are down for it

it feels like you're feeling your way into seeing if it would be acceptable to vote there without actually committing to it @limit

+1

Eve, I saw your question. Will reply later tonight/tomorrow as explaining VCA from the bottom up is harder.

[Titus]

Auro, each night they keep conftown alive, he makes one more best case scenario. With no doctor, he is universally the kill.

[Titus]

As for the VCA, you look at what scum would want to do and find scum fitting those parameters. Once more flips come in, you can say things like the top two wagons were town, therefore scum likely didn't care which flipped. That leads you to a series of theories and conclusions.

[Titus]

What best case scenario? He confirms one person in the bloc? That isn't a big deal at all.
Allomancer was a highly suspected slot. He could have easily been run up to claim D2.
Nothing prevents scum from simply killing him D2.

If Allomancer lives, that's another free conftown. No point in that.

[Titus]

OK, Auro might be scum.

[Titus]

Yeah, I think Auro is scum with GL.

[Titus]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

unfortunately I feel it's gotta be you :/

^town doesn't make this post

Help me sort whether the hydra or Auro is his partner please. I'm leaning towards Auro. They both want to invalidate my VCA but Auro has some unique suggestions that make me favor him. His VCA discredit sounds like a robotic recycle of the hydra's complaints. He also objects to how I caught GL (with the VCA) while having GL in his scumpool. He's diverting attention onto Skitter while having enough distance for cya.

Thoughts?

[Titus]

I do think he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon; and I think it's perfectly plausible for scum to believe that an Allo lynch is viable at deadline D1.

No. Just 1000% no.

[Titus]

They both want to invalidate my VCA but Auro has some unique suggestions that make me favor him. His VCA discredit sounds like a robotic recycle of the hydra's complaints. He also objects to how I caught GL (with the VCA) while having GL in his scumpool.

We're invalidating your VCA because it's clearly an incorrect method when we were trying to negotiate who would be on wagons and forming a copbloc based on the assumption that the lynch flips town. It's really foolish and stubborn to try to VCA regardless when you've been told of this fact several times.

You claiming this was the objective of town does not change the motivation of scum. You can claim I am foolish and stubborn all you want to, or you can quit being an echo bot and prove me wrong by scum hunting. That's the only way I could change my mind.

[Titus]

I do think he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon; and I think it's perfectly plausible for scum to believe that an Allo lynch is viable at deadline D1.

No. Just 1000% no.

1) Didn't you say you didn't read the game?
2) Are you disagreeing with me saying he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon, or disagreeing with me saying it's plausible that scum believe an Allo lynch is viable at deadline, or both? I feel that I've shown evidence for both of these things in 1656 - acryon talking about an Allo wagon as well as several other people talking about lynching Allo near deadline.
3) Why are you also arguing with me about something that is purely hypothetical at this point?

- Smarter

A scumfuck never thinks a day 1 PR claim in this setup is a viable mislynch. Whatever scum pushes that faces a flash wagon when Allo claims. Just cash out with the soft claim.

I don't have to read the game to know your proposition is faulty.

I can argue about hypotheticals because we're all hypothesizing. A vote is just an educated guess or a policy vote.

[Titus]

Titus I have been scum hunting towards Karnage and possible Karnage partners for like the entirety of mid-D1 to now. PLEASE read my points about Karnage and my request to you to give a read on the slot, especially if you are townreading that ISO

Great. If you actually were scum hunting, then my request to keep scumhunting shouldn't be a problem.

My VCA suggests Karnage is town and the new guy feels pretty town too. Do you feel his replacement is posting scummy?

[Titus]

Titus did you answer my VCA question? i want to learn from the master

I haven't posted a recent guide on the matter. I'll give you the step by step process though.

First, establish your assumptions. In this setup, that's two scum, scum preferring to avoid detection and be on the major wagons to avoid being coppable. Note: This assumption goes away when Allomancer softs and his wagon distingrates. Then it's just avoid attention and don't bus.

Second, get the VCAs in a manner where you can see who is whom. I do this by eyeballing in minis. Ideally, you should quote and find replace with colors and substitutes if newer to VCA.

Third, look at each vote count and ask what motivates scum. For instance, if there's only one wagon and it's on town, scum have little incentive to create wagons. So they'll largely be apathetic or sheep. This is what happened yesterday.

Today, we have largely static wagons (AH and myself) which is exactly what scum want in a T v T setup. That's why GL is sputtering on you (instead wanting me to read Carnage) and Auro is picking a fight with Skitter while FoSing GL.

[Titus]

I do think he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon; and I think it's perfectly plausible for scum to believe that an Allo lynch is viable at deadline D1.

No. Just 1000% no.

1) Didn't you say you didn't read the game?
2) Are you disagreeing with me saying he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon, or disagreeing with me saying it's plausible that scum believe an Allo lynch is viable at deadline, or both? I feel that I've shown evidence for both of these things in 1656 - acryon talking about an Allo wagon as well as several other people talking about lynching Allo near deadline.
3) Why are you also arguing with me about something that is purely hypothetical at this point?

- Smarter

A scumfuck never thinks a day 1 PR claim in this setup is a viable mislynch. Whatever scum pushes that faces a flash wagon when Allo claims. Just cash out with the soft claim.

I don't have to read the game to know your proposition is faulty.

I can argue about hypotheticals because we're all hypothesizing. A vote is just an educated guess or a policy vote.

I think everyone in this game is in agreement that Allomancer was highly mislynchable, and

multiple people

were asking for an Allo wagon at deadline. I disagree that "scum never thinks a day 1 PR claim is a viable mislynch"

because the Allomancer wagon WAS IN FACT VIABLE

.

- Smarter

Nope. I bet none of those people were GL or Auro or anyone who claimed to see the soft. Those people wouldn't vote there despite the pleadings of others. A soft claim of PR means a slot is unlynchable.

[Titus]

A scumfuck never thinks a day 1 PR claim in this setup is a viable mislynch. Whatever scum pushes that faces a flash wagon when Allo claims. Just cash out with the soft claim.

This is kind of exactly what your predecessor did.

-Smart

That would prove my predecessor is town then. Scum don't try to mislynch a PR in this setup. It proves my predecessor was town and blind.

[Titus]

Titus did you answer my VCA question? i want to learn from the master

I haven't posted a recent guide on the matter. I'll give you the step by step process though.

First, establish your assumptions. In this setup, that's two scum, scum preferring to avoid detection and be on the major wagons to avoid being coppable. Note: This assumption goes away when Allomancer softs and his wagon distingrates. Then it's just avoid attention and don't bus.

Second, get the VCAs in a manner where you can see who is whom. I do this by eyeballing in minis. Ideally, you should quote and find replace with colors and substitutes if newer to VCA.

Third, look at each vote count and ask what motivates scum. For instance, if there's only one wagon and it's on town, scum have little incentive to create wagons. So they'll largely be apathetic or sheep. This is what happened yesterday.

Today, we have largely static wagons (AH and myself) which is exactly what scum want in a T v T setup. That's why GL is sputtering on you (instead wanting me to read Carnage) and Auro is picking a fight with Skitter while FoSing GL.

very interesting thanks for the intro!

i wish there were more guides for this i would love to learn it

Take a stab at it. Set out your assumptions and detail your findings.

[Titus]

I do think he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon; and I think it's perfectly plausible for scum to believe that an Allo lynch is viable at deadline D1.

No. Just 1000% no.

1) Didn't you say you didn't read the game?
2) Are you disagreeing with me saying he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon, or disagreeing with me saying it's plausible that scum believe an Allo lynch is viable at deadline, or both? I feel that I've shown evidence for both of these things in 1656 - acryon talking about an Allo wagon as well as several other people talking about lynching Allo near deadline.
3) Why are you also arguing with me about something that is purely hypothetical at this point?

- Smarter

A scumfuck never thinks a day 1 PR claim in this setup is a viable mislynch. Whatever scum pushes that faces a flash wagon when Allo claims. Just cash out with the soft claim.

I don't have to read the game to know your proposition is faulty.

I can argue about hypotheticals because we're all hypothesizing. A vote is just an educated guess or a policy vote.

I think everyone in this game is in agreement that Allomancer was highly mislynchable, and

multiple people

were asking for an Allo wagon at deadline. I disagree that "scum never thinks a day 1 PR claim is a viable mislynch"

because the Allomancer wagon WAS IN FACT VIABLE

.

- Smarter

Nope. I bet none of those people were GL or Auro or anyone who claimed to see the soft. Those people wouldn't vote there despite the pleadings of others. A soft claim of PR means a slot is unlynchable.

Did you look at the quotes I posted?

Spoiler: Quote wall

I think we need to hang Allo or Eve, and check nom/Karnage off the wagon if we don't get scum.

couldn't we just have voted allo and went to day 2.

bbmolla who's scum?

One of Allo/Eve + a skilled scummer

My preference is to lynch Allomancer.

I believe I had considered your reasons myself at one point beforehand, and dismissed them. I would strongly say he belongs to the cop bloc lol.

Oh? What made you think the reasons shouldn't be considered? If you're right then I'd rather lynch allo still.

- Smarter

VOTE: Allomancer

I don't really wanna lynch Nom can we lynch Allo or Eve?

Nom should be the lynch and if not, Allo

I'm not into a Karnage lynch. As much as my gut is telling me Allo could be town, I think due to time's sake we have to go there.

I agree with a die roll, but are we sure we don't want people like Sauce/Karnage in the copbloc as well?

I don't see how the Allo situation gets better tomorrow either, so at the very least we remove a distraction.

We definitely don't need GL on the wagon for an Allo lynch. Plenty interest there, especially this close to deadline.

If we lynch someone other than me it should be Eve, Karnage, allo or skitt.

My opinion is back to Nom goes in the copbloc we lynch Allo.

and here's the post where he actually votes allo at deadline.

Really unfortunate I can't be around past 15 minutes from now. Sorry for any issues that causes.

VOTE: Allomancer

I think this is what needs to be done.

• acryon
  
• nom
  
• bbmolla
  
• Auro (did not believe the soft was real)
  
• us (had some doubt that the soft was real)

all saying we could lynch Allo after the soft, because his play was so horrible. How is that unlynchable?

- Smarter

Allo hard claims. Wagon dead. Do note Auro claiming the soft isn't real helps scum.

[Titus]

So they'll largely be apathetic or sheep. This is what happened yesterday.

Characterizing me as 'apathetic' just shows you clearly aren't reading the game or checking your assumptions against actual posts. I was quite aggressive in forcing the Lynch onto either nom/Karnage and then when nom was still engaging/fighting at the bitter end I appealed to her to lynch Karnage with me.

The votes don't show that.

Stop whining and start scum hunting.

[Titus]

Votes don't tell the whole story...

-Smart

But they do. That's why my VCA is controversial, and I still supplement with scum hunting as a failsafe for erratic scum.

[Titus]

By definition they don't. "The whole story" is the sum total of everything game-relevant that's happened. Some of those things are not votes.

-Smart

Yup. They're the night kills.

[Titus]

I do think he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon; and I think it's perfectly plausible for scum to believe that an Allo lynch is viable at deadline D1.

No. Just 1000% no.

1) Didn't you say you didn't read the game?
2) Are you disagreeing with me saying he was continuously trying to feel out an Allomancer wagon, or disagreeing with me saying it's plausible that scum believe an Allo lynch is viable at deadline, or both? I feel that I've shown evidence for both of these things in 1656 - acryon talking about an Allo wagon as well as several other people talking about lynching Allo near deadline.
3) Why are you also arguing with me about something that is purely hypothetical at this point?

- Smarter

A scumfuck never thinks a day 1 PR claim in this setup is a viable mislynch. Whatever scum pushes that faces a flash wagon when Allo claims. Just cash out with the soft claim.

I don't have to read the game to know your proposition is faulty.

I can argue about hypotheticals because we're all hypothesizing. A vote is just an educated guess or a policy vote.

I think everyone in this game is in agreement that Allomancer was highly mislynchable, and

multiple people

were asking for an Allo wagon at deadline. I disagree that "scum never thinks a day 1 PR claim is a viable mislynch"

because the Allomancer wagon WAS IN FACT VIABLE

.

- Smarter

Nope. I bet none of those people were GL or Auro or anyone who claimed to see the soft. Those people wouldn't vote there despite the pleadings of others. A soft claim of PR means a slot is unlynchable.

Did you look at the quotes I posted?

Spoiler: Quote wall

I think we need to hang Allo or Eve, and check nom/Karnage off the wagon if we don't get scum.

couldn't we just have voted allo and went to day 2.

bbmolla who's scum?

One of Allo/Eve + a skilled scummer

My preference is to lynch Allomancer.

I believe I had considered your reasons myself at one point beforehand, and dismissed them. I would strongly say he belongs to the cop bloc lol.

Oh? What made you think the reasons shouldn't be considered? If you're right then I'd rather lynch allo still.

- Smarter

VOTE: Allomancer

I don't really wanna lynch Nom can we lynch Allo or Eve?

Nom should be the lynch and if not, Allo

I'm not into a Karnage lynch. As much as my gut is telling me Allo could be town, I think due to time's sake we have to go there.

I agree with a die roll, but are we sure we don't want people like Sauce/Karnage in the copbloc as well?

I don't see how the Allo situation gets better tomorrow either, so at the very least we remove a distraction.

We definitely don't need GL on the wagon for an Allo lynch. Plenty interest there, especially this close to deadline.

If we lynch someone other than me it should be Eve, Karnage, allo or skitt.

My opinion is back to Nom goes in the copbloc we lynch Allo.

and here's the post where he actually votes allo at deadline.

Really unfortunate I can't be around past 15 minutes from now. Sorry for any issues that causes.

VOTE: Allomancer

I think this is what needs to be done.

• acryon
  
• nom
  
• bbmolla
  
• Auro (did not believe the soft was real)
  
• us (had some doubt that the soft was real)

all saying we could lynch Allo after the soft, because his play was so horrible. How is that unlynchable?

- Smarter

Allo hard claims. Wagon dead. Do note Auro claiming the soft isn't real helps scum.

At that point in D1, with just a soft, with so many people asking if they can wagon Allo, it's not implausible to want to push a deadline wagon on him (even if it ended with an L-1 claim and then disintegrated again)! Like.... I feel like you're completely missing the point of my posts.

- Smarter

I completely understand your posts. You have a faulty assumption which leads you astray. Your passion in conviction is pretty town though.

[Titus]

The votes don't show that.

Stop whining and start scum hunting.

Again -

THE VOTES DO NOT FOLLOW ORDINARY VOTING RULES BECAUSE HALF THE TIME WE WERE DEBATING WHO SHOULD BE ON WHAT WAGON AND NEGOTIATING WHEN/WHERE TO VOTE

also, why do you say this as if I am not scum hunting? I've been scumhunting the entire game and if you actually read any of my posts instead of skimming VCs you would see that

Who said I used ordinary assumptions? I factored the setup into my analysis.

I am just hearing whining. You aren't going to persuade me by whining about my methods. It just makes you look like caught for the wrong reasons, particularly when I asked you about your AH thoughts but I get met with more whining.

[Titus]

Votes on a wagon are votes on a wagon. They don't say pushed or not. I see a player who needs the support of others before getting on a wagon.

What are your thoughts on Auro?

[Titus]

The traffic analyst died n1. It's real easy to pretend to bait a cop check when you plan on shooting the cop.

[Titus]

Skitter votes:

Nomnomnom(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->

Not Voting

(1.5)->GL(1.16)->

Nom

(1.20)->Not Voting(1.22)

GuiltyLion votes:

Auro(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->Allomancer(1.5)->

Not Voting

(1.18)->

Nom

(1.20)->Karnage(1.27)

Colored some of the common elements. Do tell me, Titus, why your VCA arguments for GuiltyLion scum do not apply to Skitter.

Auro if you are scum I will be very upset so please don’t be because obviously I can’t read you

This is completely out of context with the VCs not included. That's why you're scum with GL. There's a difference between thinking VCA is crap and outright distorting things to try and get obvtown Skitter lynched.

Even if you disagree with my VCA, Skitter's posting today is obvtown.

[Titus]

Doesn't this make it even weirder for scum!GL to point out the soft?

No. Once GL realized the soft, an Allomancer lynch was dead and the N1 nk was sealed. Why wouldn't scum GL point it out to look like he's scum hunting.

I am also going to lol at people thinking they could leash Scum's votes here.

[Titus]

I agree with flipping Titus before skitter, but I'm not sure I agree that town!Titus makes scum!skitter more likely. Explain that one to me?

This is Auro just wanting to chain me and skitter before GL.

Remember, scum have two voices against me plus the pride of town too.

[Titus]

What VCs weren't included? The arrows indicate vote changes, and I fail to see how you didn't get that. Skitter was "Not Voting" from 1.5 to 1.16 for example.

LOL how is Skitter's posting today obvtown? Go ahead and explain, I'll wait.

All of them. Wagon positioning is key.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.1

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (2)	skitter30 (18), Karnage (26)
GuiltyLion (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (5), acryon (15)
The Limit Does Not Exist (2)	SausasaurusRex (6), Auro (42)
Eve (2)	Allomancer (14), nomnomnom (93)
BBmolla (1)	Eve (13)
Auro (1)	GuiltyLion (4)
Karnage (1)	BBmolla (7)
Not Voting (0)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.16

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (3)	nomnomnom (211), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (533)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
skitter30 (1)	The Limit Does Not Exist (643)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Votecount 1.23

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (3)	GuiltyLion (1076), The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), skitter30 (1161)
Allomancer (1)	Eve (1147)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (6)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), nomnomnom (1156), SausasaurusRex (1157), acryon (1163)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Except for the end skitter is literally the first votes on wagons. Hardly sheepy at all.

[Titus]

Doesn't this make it even weirder for scum!GL to point out the soft?

No. Once GL realized the soft, an Allomancer lynch was dead and the N1 nk was sealed. Why wouldn't scum GL point it out to look like he's scum hunting.

Because pointing out a softclaim doesn't look like scumhunting? GL didn't question it or use it for scumhunting--he just highlighted it.

Of course, because GL isn't actually scum hunting. That sort of soft pointing out just looks like it. That's my point. There's no town reason to out a soft. As scum it's please verify so I can shoot the PR.

[Titus]

In the VCs you quoted:

Skitter first vote in 1.1, 1.16.
GuiltyLion first vote in 1.1, 1.23

GL was literally the first vote in equally as much wagons as Skit from the ones you quoted here. Hardly sheepy at all

GL has a bunch of sheep votes in the middle. Also 1.23 is end of day. Second, 1.23 GL is only first because others peeled off. Hardly leading a charge there. Skitter's first vote is on GL in 1.16. Suddenly Skitter is suspect enough to be copped.

[Titus]

Suddenly Skitter is suspect enough to be copped.

Citation needed.

please cop lynch Karnage or Me if this flips green, not Skit

End of day wagon, Skitter is off it. I was referring to the collective consensus. Since y'all positioned for the TA.

GL wouldn't want Skitter to be conftown. That's conftown pushing him. Town would want to know if their biggest detractor was town or scum.

[Titus]

Doesn't this make it even weirder for scum!GL to point out the soft?

No. Once GL realized the soft, an Allomancer lynch was dead and the N1 nk was sealed. Why wouldn't scum GL point it out to look like he's scum hunting.

Because pointing out a softclaim doesn't look like scumhunting? GL didn't question it or use it for scumhunting--he just highlighted it.

Of course, because GL isn't actually scum hunting. That sort of soft pointing out just looks like it. That's my point. There's no town reason to out a soft. As scum it's please verify so I can shoot the PR.

Ok except that by pointing to it, town has

confirmation

that he saw it, and we know by the NK that scum saw it. Not sure addressing it directly for the purposes of confirming it for himself is worth putting himself into the scumpool.

Is he really in the scumpool though? The only two people pushing GL are being return pushed as suspects.

[Titus]

Is he really in the scumpool though? The only two people pushing GL are being return pushed as suspects.

Not at the moment, but he couldn't know that yesterday. Anyone that didn't comment on it yesterday gets some level of deniability--GL gets none. I'm just not sure why you would want to be so closely connected to the most pivotal post in the game. Even if you could gain good info as scum there, why raise your profile that high?

Because it confirms or denies the cop, the only major PR in the game. Killing the TA makes the game mountainous which 2 v 7 scum win a lot of the time.

[Titus]

Is he really in the scumpool though? The only two people pushing GL are being return pushed as suspects.

Not at the moment, but he couldn't know that yesterday. Anyone that didn't comment on it yesterday gets some level of deniability--GL gets none. I'm just not sure why you would want to be so closely connected to the most pivotal post in the game. Even if you could gain good info as scum there, why raise your profile that high?

Because it confirms or denies the cop, the only major PR in the game. Killing the TA makes the game mountainous which 2 v 7 scum win a lot of the time.

That's true, but that wagon was ready to wrap. Allo got an additional vote AFTER the soft, so it's clear not many saw it at the time. If anything, pointing it out stops the wagon.

And is scum!GL really brazen enough to say this:

I don't see how the Allo situation gets better tomorrow either, so at the very least we remove a distraction.

I think the Allo situation resolves itself

Pointing out the soft doesn't stop the wagon. You illustrated that. It's Allo's threat of claiming that stops his wagon.

GL is basically saying scum shoot Allomancer if he's the TA. That's pretty common sense and NAI. GL's quote isn't scummy to say Allo is self-resolving because it's true.

[Titus]

Like GL's play here is pretty caught scum.
Auro's play here is "GL might be scum but Skitter first".

I don't need to make up reasons for those two to be scum.

If I am wrong, the last scum is Eve due to sucking up and leaving.

[Titus]

Pointing out the soft doesn't stop the wagon. You illustrated that. It's Allo's threat of claiming that stops his wagon.

Actually it was me backing off for unrelated reasons (call me thick, but I didn't see the soft) that first curbed the wagon. If GL wasn't sure if Allo was TA or not, why not just stay silent and let him

actually

claim from wagon pressure rather than get involved at all? Why risk your neck?

GL is basically saying scum shoot Allomancer if he's the TA. That's pretty common sense and NAI. GL's quote isn't scummy to say Allo is self-resolving because it's true.

Ok except people weren't talking about him being the TA. I know you're just jumping into the game now and seeing things in hindsight, but it was certainly

not

some generally accepted thought that he had claimed TA. Multiple people (including myself at points) were still pushing for an Allo lynch.

The soft was so blatant to GL it might as well have been a claim.

You pushed after the soft is irrellevant. Scum knew it wasn't going through. Just because you didn't see something doesn't mean it wasn't there.

I feel so frustrated with everyone. I feel like this is a pride thing. Town collectively at this point has wagoned wrong twice (Allo and Nom) and threatened three more times wrong (Carnage/AH, me, Skitter). What is it going to take to get people to listen rather than be stuck in stubborn pride?

[Titus]

If your best post for GL scum hunting is showing him PR hunting, maybe take a step back and realize he's scum?

[Titus]

It must be really tough being omniscient. Doesn't sound like much fun.

The sass isn't fun. It would be fun if I felt like there was an actual conversation but instead I feel like it's let's shoot Titus down so we can get back to mislynching.

[Titus]

Well here's the problem Titus: there are only two people in this game that have perfect information. So if you're actually town, you may want to stop acting like you're one of them.

I did put a suggestion in case I was wrong, but you guys are acting like you have information which says GL is innocent and refusing to even consider he was scum.

I did look at the votes assuming I was wrong too. No one engaged that either. It was just objections to my methods because y'all knew better and "leashed scum".

[Titus]

Well here's the problem Titus: there are only two people in this game that have perfect information. So if you're actually town, you may want to stop acting like you're one of them.

I did put a suggestion in case I was wrong, but you guys are acting like you have information which says GL is innocent and refusing to even consider he was scum.

I did look at the votes assuming I was wrong too. No one engaged that either. It was just objections to my methods because y'all knew better and "leashed scum".

I mean I can't speak for others, but I just disagree with your reasoning.

It's certainly possible I'm wrong too, but I just don't think VCA is even close to the best way to try and analyze that day 1 given the dynamics at play. So IMO, it is fundamentally flawed.

GL is not conftown to me. But I also think you might be scum, so that certainly makes me less likely to get on board with what you have to offer, especially if I fundamentally disagree with it.

It's OK to disagree with my VCA. It's not OK to try and act like you're better than me because you think the VC game leashed scum when its obvious from the two town wagons that scum were fine going along with it.

I scumhunt differently and use words as a backstop. No one engages those either. I commented on how Aurora is distancing from GL. I get crickets. No one even asking what I mean. It's like trying to stop a train with my bare hands. I have to be Supergirl.

[Titus]

Doubling down on "I've suspected Auro all along" and then linking times you disagreed with Auro aint great though GL I gotta tell ya

I mean, it's perfectly possible that he had those suspicions and never was really obvious about them. Since he said "low-key" that's kind of what it implies.

-Smart

Or GL and Auro are distancing and it's theatre.

[Titus]

Titus, what is your read on skitter?

-Smart

Lock town. Skitter doesn't lead like he has if he's scum.

[Titus]

Yes but I do agree that's not a great look. Doesn't feel very townie to proactively provide justification like that.

Why not? Scum care about establishing a consistent narrative, town care about sharing what they actually think. If GL actually thought that Auro was scummy but never said so, he'd still want to point it out, whereas if he's scum wouldn't he be afraid that people would call him out for pulling that out of the blue?

-Smart

He's scummy but scum are afraid to be scummy so I guess that makes GL townie.

The I suspect but don't push goes both ways. Aurora suspects GL but doesn't push him either.

[Titus]

Skitter is a she. And what do you mean by "lead"?

-Smart

Except for EoD 1, Skitter has been front and center on each wagon she pushes. That's a leader unafraid of consequences.

[Titus]

Hm I think Titus is town for the slip

Let's lynch Skitter?

We screwed with D1 VCA a lot by controlling votes and wagons.

Offer me a good candidate for the partner.

Good luck going with that, Titus!
(Hint: You didn't notice that I and GL both - the latter which you were pushing - are in the copbloc and thus candidates resulting from my proposed argument)

also i think trying to do a complete solve with no flips is silly

{Skitter+Titus}
{Skitter+GL}

Just saying.

This is a scum evolution.

[Titus]

Except for EoD 1, Skitter has been front and center on each wagon she pushes. That's a leader unafraid of consequences.

I'm not a fan of VCA in general, but that's actually pretty reasonable as far as VCA reasoning goes.

Why didn't you say this earlier?

-Smart

I did when talking with Auro. Auro drowned it out and insisted my assertion was false.

[Titus]

Spoiler: 1838

Why do you consider GL to be voteparking but not skitter?

- Smarter

I think this is it.

I consider GL's votepark more of a scummy votepark. Skitter looks more like a tunnel than a lazy votepark if that makes sense from just eyeballing the VCA.

Votecount 1.3

Target	Wagon
GuiltyLion (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (5), acryon (15)
The Limit Does Not Exist (2)	SausasaurusRex (6), Auro (42)
nomnomnom (2)	Karnage (26), Eve (118)
acryon (2)	skitter30 (104), GuiltyLion (106)
Eve (1)	Allomancer (14)
Karnage (1)	BBmolla (7)
Not Voting (1)	nomnomnom (179)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.4

Target	Wagon
acryon (3)	skitter30 (104), GuiltyLion (106), Allomancer (215)
nomnomnom (2)	Karnage (26), Eve (118)
Allomancer (2)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Karnage (1)	BBmolla (7)
Not Voting (1)	SausasaurusRex (219)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Btw @mod, when will sarusuarus rex or however you spell it be prodded?

I prod players after 48 hours of inactivity.

Votecount 1.5

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (241)
acryon (2)	Allomancer (215), BBmolla (243)
nomnomnom (1)	Karnage (26)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.12

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (3)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
BBmolla (1)	Eve (361)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.18

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), Eve (533), acryon (711), The Limit Does Not Exist (713)
Eve (2)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299), GuiltyLion (717)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Votecount 1.26

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (3)	GuiltyLion (1076), The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Eve (1)	nomnomnom (1238)
Not Voting (6)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), SausasaurusRex (1157), acryon (1163), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.27

Target	Wagon
Karnage (3)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256), nomnomnom (1271)
nomnomnom (3)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272)
Allomancer (1)	acryon (1252)
Not Voting (4)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), SausasaurusRex (1157), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.Final

Target	Wagon
nomnomnom (6)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1116), Eve (1189), BBmolla (1272), acryon (1286), SausasaurusRex (1289), nomnomnom (1300)
Karnage (2)	Allomancer (850), GuiltyLion (1256)
Not Voting (3)	Karnage (1028), Auro (1041), skitter30 (1192)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. nomnomnom has been lynched.

When I look at these VCs, I see a very sheepish, survivalist and static GuiltyLion. He is more about voting the counter when he's wagoned early, and then just lurks on the popular wagons. That's exactly where someone would want to be avoiding the cop.

Pedit: I inferred the Allomancer wagon derailed because he claimed Traffic Analyst. Is this not the case?

Okay then, help lynch scum today and I'll TR you

Fair enough, but I need your vote Auro. Skitter doesn't feel like scum based on the wagons.

nsg took the pagetop away from me

Anyway I think my original point still stands - skitter and GL have made similar pushes on the same people since late D1, starting with karnage/nom yesterday and continuing with karnage today. I don’t really understand how one is lazy voteparking but not the other.

- Smarter

Guilty is following Skitter IMO.

A lot of people don't understand my VCA. My VCA involves looking at wagons, solving what scum want to do, and figuring out who fits that pattern.

Sometimes we get the pattern first, then solve for what scum wanted and who fits that as well.

We screwed with D1 VCA a lot by controlling votes and wagons.

Hm I think Titus is town for the slip

Let's lynch Skitter?

auro is there anything you wanna talk about beyond 'hmm poe let's lynch skitter'?

Sell me on anyone else being scum?

Well that and Titus stubbornly pushing the whole VCA crap after everyone pointed out D1 VCA is moot.

Also, one thing to be checked: Conclusions from the "VCA" on Skitter and GuiltyLion should be similar is what I feel; have to actually look at the VCs. Noting here.

Skitter votes:

Nomnomnom(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->

Not Voting

(1.5)->GL(1.16)->

Nom

(1.20)->Not Voting(1.22)

GuiltyLion votes:

Auro(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->Allomancer(1.5)->

Not Voting

(1.18)->

Nom

(1.20)->Karnage(1.27)

Colored some of the common elements. Do tell me, Titus, why your VCA arguments for GuiltyLion scum do not apply to Skitter.

Auro if you are scum I will be very upset so please don’t be because obviously I can’t read you

Skitter votes:

Nomnomnom(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->

Not Voting

(1.5)->GL(1.16)->

Nom

(1.20)->Not Voting(1.22)

GuiltyLion votes:

Auro(1.1)->

Acryon

(1.2)->Allomancer(1.5)->

Not Voting

(1.18)->

Nom

(1.20)->Karnage(1.27)

Colored some of the common elements. Do tell me, Titus, why your VCA arguments for GuiltyLion scum do not apply to Skitter.

Auro if you are scum I will be very upset so please don’t be because obviously I can’t read you

This is completely out of context with the VCs not included. That's why you're scum with GL. There's a difference between thinking VCA is crap and outright distorting things to try and get obvtown Skitter lynched.

Even if you disagree with my VCA, Skitter's posting today is obvtown.

What VCs weren't included? The arrows indicate vote changes, and I fail to see how you didn't get that. Skitter was "Not Voting" from 1.5 to 1.16 for example.

LOL how is Skitter's posting today obvtown? Go ahead and explain, I'll wait.

What VCs weren't included? The arrows indicate vote changes, and I fail to see how you didn't get that. Skitter was "Not Voting" from 1.5 to 1.16 for example.

LOL how is Skitter's posting today obvtown? Go ahead and explain, I'll wait.

All of them. Wagon positioning is key.

Skitter's posting being obvtown will take a minute after work as I want to break it down.

[Titus]

VOTE: Titus

Titus' reasons for skitter being "locktown" from votes is pretty bad

we should end this day already

Eve: I want to learn VCA.
Me: Explains it. Invites Eve to do it.
Eve: Silence.
Me: It's GL, Auro or Eve if I am wrong.
Eve: Titus reason for TRing Skitter sucks. Let's just lynch her fast.

Me: Side eye.

[Titus]

I just woke up and I need a drink. Jesus I havent been tilted this hard in a long damn time...

Get one for me too.

[Titus]

I am looking at how you treated me. The shift was sudden. Also you have been my third SR. You're only lynched if one of GL or Aurora flips town and I think that is unlikely.

Off to prove Skitter is town.

[Titus]

If acryon is telling the truth about not seeing the soft then my point is moot. He was talking about getting back to an Allo wagon before the nom deadline wagon happened though, like it wasn’t just the one vote I’m talking about.

sorry i'm still not following
allo wasn't really viable at that point, i don't think that scum thinks that they were going to get that deadline lynch there really

especially since acryon knows he's vla over the weekend and wouldn't be able to nudge people in that direction

GuiltyLion's vote park looks like scum to me regardless of your alignment, so I want to start there too.

interesting.
which votepark, the current one on karnage?
because the obvious followup is why is my votepark not scum indicative too?

Now I'm going to run the numbers if GL is town.

Very little wagon participation suggests Karnage is town.

why tho?
why aren't scum piling on in this case?

We look at how Skitter treats the thread. First she tries to explain to TLDNE that a mislynch on Allo was impossible. Look at the tone she takes. It's not hostile but is matter of fact. It's not pockets. It's just stating an inconvenient truth.

Second, look how Skitter treats me. I am practically the only slot TRing him and she doesn't try and build me or my logic up. Instead, she tries to analyze my posts.

[Titus]

Oh look, Titus thinks Eve could be scum but isn't really pushing her!

And if Eve flips scum, you would be right to suspect me for it.

[Titus]

But then if your "top two" lynches are both town then I'd have the right to suspect you as buddies with anyone there are other factors too is what I mean

Not really. I'm hard pushing GL. No one doubts that
Show me his scum hunting since I got here. I'll wait. It doesn't exist.

[Titus]

In post 1737, Titus wrote:
Who said I used ordinary assumptions? I factored the setup into my analysis.


ok, can you elaborate on this part please?
because from where i'm sitting, that doesn't really seem to be the case

Yes

1) Be a sheepy mofo and not draw attention. Go with consensus. (Your refusal to do that Day 1 is why you are town.)
2) Don't bus.
3) Try to out the cop.
4) If this fails, focus the cop on wrong town.

These are true regardless of any manipulation done. Scum prefer the manipulation described here because it fits their sheepy agenda and makes accurate wagons hard to push. Spam and make your detractors look scummy/crazy.

[Titus]

can you just summarize why you think gl isn't scumhunting cuz you've alleged that multiple times and i havne't seen you substantiate that anywhere yet

=

In post 1819, Titus wrote:
I commented on how Aurora is distancing from GL. I get crickets.


ok, elaborate then?

I can't go through here and quote every post of GL's and put why it's not scumhunting. Nearly every post since I subbed in has been Titus is crazy, Titus is scummy or AtE or setup spec. None of that is scumhunting. If you see scumhunting in a post, I can break down why it isn't. Otherwise, you're asking for something that bogs down the thread.

[Titus]

this isn't really how i'm thinking of the game tbh, and i don't think that limiting to solves to 2 people in townbloc makes much sense either really

I said candidate solves, not high confidence solves.
The argument gives higher credence to finding scum within the cop bloc even if TA died.
I believe Karnage is town.
Leaves you and GuiltyLion.
I think GL is likelier town than you are, if both aren't scum.

also i think trying to do a complete solve with no flips is silly

{Skitter+Titus}
{Skitter+GL}

His last post is Skitter plus GL. His second post here suddenly adds me into his PoE but keeping GL. Both setups he lynches you first. Then me. Then whoops time to reevaluate in lylo.

It's a classic distance. Sure my partner is scummy but someone else is scummier.

[Titus]

I have real life today.

If I get lynched, do not dare touch a hair on AH, acryon, skitter or TDLNE's heads.

I would strongly recommend GL lynch.

If that flips scum, turbo lynch Auro. If Auro flips town, look at Eve.

If GL flips town, look at BBMolla.

[Titus]

Auro what would you think if Titus flips town

It's useful to sort this out anyway because I could very well be conf-biased. Why would Eve be scum if Titus is town? I don't see it.

on this -

the only thing Titus has said that I've liked so far is when she acknowledged that if she was wrong on both of us, that Eve was probscum for "sucking up and leaving". I do think Eve's interactions with her don't strike me as likely to be T-T, and I also think Eve fits a good POE candidate if I've been off so far on both scum!Karnage and scum!Titus

I forgot this. Add Eve back into my post.

[Titus]

I wonder if I should extend my acryon case to cover his more recent posting because theres a lot of not very good there.

Please do, because I'd like to show you he's town or be proven wrong.

If I can't convince GL is scum, then I can prove everyone else town. At least it checks my work on my town block regardless.

[Titus]

AH, where is the acroyn case?

VOTE: Eve

[Titus]

AH, where is the acroyn case?

VOTE: Eve

why are you voting Eve?

- Smarter

titus, are you townreading auro or GL now?

- Smarter

I am not getting Auro or GL lynches, so I am voting any slot that isn't in my obvtown slots that gets votes. I'd rather GL or Auro but I'll settle for BBMolla or Eve.

[Titus]

i don't like how eve lolsheeped auro there
i don't like auro's vote either

atarashi's is ok i guess

Vote motion doesn't make sense for an eve/auro scumteam unless they felt super threatened by acryon or deliberately vote fucking.

[Titus]

Titus didn't imply it was a counterwagon. I thought she was saying that since you both jumped on acryon within a few pages of each other, then by VCA you probably weren't teamed... unless you felt super threatened by acryon and really needed him dead.

-Smart

This

[Titus]

I would rather lynch Titus than Eve, if I'm unable to get a Skitter lynch.

Why are you so against an Eve lynch? You jumped from Acryon to me, which happen to be the only two viable Eve counters.

The jumpiness makes me hesitate on ruling out you/Eve completely.

[Titus]

@auro, why are you scumreading acryon

You sure you can't join on Eve? She's not even trying to defend herself.

[Titus]

I would rather lynch Titus than Eve, if I'm unable to get a Skitter lynch.

Why are you so against an Eve lynch? You jumped from Acryon to me, which happen to be the only two viable Eve counters.

The jumpiness makes me hesitate on ruling out you/Eve completely.

@Auro, This is not rhetorical.

[Titus]

Titus, it's a mix of my not scumreading Eve (I found all her posts today legitimate) and the wagon composition on Eve. I'm also saying Eve is the generated counterwagon to Acryon. I don't think the lack of defense is scummy.
Skitter+Acryon looks like a decent solve to me.

If it was Eve+Auro I'd not hesitate to just lynch you, no?

1) Your acryon scum suspect is out of nowhere. You were pushing Skitter plus me and Skitter plus GL most of the day. Although it's a stretch to say you pushed GL.

2) Eve's post have little to no productive content. Her questions, particularly about my VCA have proven to be busiwork she doesn't follow up on. What's so legitimate about kissing my ass?

3) If Eve is a counterwagon to Skitter plus acryon and therefore Eve is town, why vote me and not stay on Acryon?

[Titus]

I was typing my post out Titus I never ignore questions, if I do it would be because I forgot to respond.

Fair enough. I have a similar approach. I just wanted to apply pressure to see if you were dodging because I didn't know that was your policy. It's NAI now that you explained.

Good night.

[Titus]

How much you want to bet if I am lynched, the back part of my wagon is literally all my scum suspects?

[Titus]

I'll be back in an hour but seeing that VC means our lynch fate is in Auro's hands. If we lynch scum today, I might need to reset on him.

[Titus]

Am I wrong though? You can vote Eve and hope someone comes by to hammer. You can vote Acryon and know at least I'll be around to hammer begrudgingly. We're that close on the deadline.

[Titus]

P-edit, if no one votes Eve by the time my psychiatrist meeting ends, I'll hammer.

[Titus]

And this is part begrudging because I *actually* want to lynch Skitter

And I want GL.

Neither of us get what we want.

[Titus]

We live lives of compromise

I'm only voting Acyron to actually get a lynch off. Eve and Molla are my compromise tier.

My psychiatrist is late....

[Titus]

We should compare Skitter and GL notes very thoroughly the next day, if I'm alive

And Eve and Molla notes. You inexplicably townread the two lurkiest slots in the game.

[Titus]

I'm going to the restroom. Last chance to vote Eve before I hammer.

[Titus]

VOTE: acryon

That's a hammer folks.

[Titus]

We have three lynches. There are three slots fmpov that could be scum, GL, Eve or BBMolla.

Consider my vote on whichever of the three has the largest wagon.

[Titus]

VOTE: skitter

acryon wagon was awful btw

Acryon wagon was awful

*votes not eve*

Makes total sense. [/sarcasm]

VOTE: Eve

[Titus]

Yeah BBMolla's vote makes no sense.

Acryon wagon is horrible. Why? Because Eve is scum.

Votes someone not on the acryon wagon.

BBMolla's play here is opportunistic and inconsistent.

[Titus]

Eve, what do you think of BBMolla's entry to today?

[Titus]

Yeah BBMolla's vote makes no sense.

Acryon wagon is horrible. Why? Because Eve is scum.

Votes someone not on the acryon wagon.

BBMolla's play here is opportunistic and inconsistent.

reread this post and realize how little sense it makes

It makes total sense.

You shared the acryon wagon. Neither Skitter nor myself were in favor of that wagon. I only voted because of the deadline. It was in about 4 hours.

Yet, BBMolla's alleged position is Skitter Titus. Basically, he's trying to have it both ways.

If he really thought the acryon wagon was terrible, he would vote Eve as she's been the counterwagon twice.

BBMolla wants to have a reason for voting everyone.

His response when I call him out is to vote and discredit me.

[Titus]

* shared = shaded

[Titus]

BBMolla also chose not to answer why the acryon wagon was horrible.

[Titus]

@Titus, do you see an Eve/bbmolla team?

- Smarter

It's possible. I strongly prefer GuiltyLion as scum but I could have been SRing the townbeard. It's been known to happen in my VCA.

I would lynch any of the three as we have one mislynch left and I have three suspects.

[Titus]

I feel like scum!Eve would have kept Auro alive because he was defending her against skitter and Titus yesterday. Like knowing that she was the counterwagon to two town wagons, wouldn’t the best play be to keep someone around who’s been townreading/defending her? Unless the team is like... Eve/skitter or Eve/Titus and the partner is bussing.

- Smarter

And if we suppose the goal is to mislynch Skitter and Titus back to back?

[Titus]

Great, if you stick to that list, we lose.

We lost on acryon.

We need to lynch in my pool. I don't know how much clearer I can make it. We have one mislynch remaining. Most likely it's blown on Skitter or me. The other is forced (due to optimal lylo play) to place our vote first. This puts the burden on us when you haven't been listening in the first place.

Half of you are lurking in shame. That's not the response. The response is to refuckingset and try listening.

[Titus]

I think you might want to reset on skitter as well, though, because if you're town then it looks like she was TMI'ing pretty hard on you.

-Smart

How about you case Skitter without stating in general her play sucks or PoE?

I'll restate my VCA again, including who is clear and why.

I do admit if I am wrong on Skitter, then she probably has the most use for me out of anyone. A free mislynch that defends me, sign me up.

I just feel that strongly I am not wrong. The Skitter in team mafia was competent and carried. This skitter is not a carry at all.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.17

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (3)	nomnomnom (211), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (533)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
skitter30 (1)	The Limit Does Not Exist (643)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.19

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), Eve (533), acryon (711), The Limit Does Not Exist (713)
Eve (2)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
GuiltyLion (1)	skitter30 (612)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), Karnage (299), GuiltyLion (717)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Let's look at these three VCs.

Eve is the counterwagon to Allomancer, known town.
Eve is the counterwagon to nomnom, known town.
Eve is the counterwagon to acryon, known town.
We know Auro is town too.

Now let's apply that to these VCs.

Before you rant about wagon positioning, that doesn't count if the lynch is undecided.

If we suppose Eve is town, then scum didn't care who was lynched on the Allomancer or Eve wagons(1.17). They'd be fine with either one.

We see a largely town wagon on Eve in 1.17. Auro, BBMolla, Acryon

The question is then, why does a Nom counterwagon arise instead? Why did the Eve wagon shift names?

We see a new wagon of Nom acryon and TLDNE on Eve in 1.20.
Nom has eve, skitter and GL. Except for Skitter, GL and Eve were both on Allomancer. Skitter has had eyes for GuiltyLion.

Skitter has been out front trying to lynch GuiltyLion and instead gets left off the lynch at the end "for the traffic analyst" who was likely dead anyway? [Setting aside that being a bonehead idea, it does suggest general sentiment.] This reeks of isolating Skitter to discredit her. No one can tell me Skitter hasn't tried here.

Scum on Day 1 want to sheep. This let's them see a hood and control information without drawing attention to themselves.

Also, unless you want to argue town pride, scum keep saving Eve. They value Eve. Most likely she is scum.

[Titus]

Votecount 2.10

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979), skitter30 (2014)
Titus (3)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903), Auro (2034)
acryon (2)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Eve (1956)
Not Voting (1)	GuiltyLion (1780)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

Votecount 2.11

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979), skitter30 (2014)
acryon (3)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Eve (1956), GuiltyLion (2094)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Not Voting (1)	Auro (2051)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

Look at these votes. GuiltyLion will sheep anything, but an Eve vote.

[Titus]

I generally feel like Auro died for two reasons

1) he was hard pushing Skit
2) so Titus could make the VCA argument above

there's really no reason not to shoot Limit over Auro here unless Auro specifically was pushing scum

My argument largely remains the same with an Auro or Limit kill.

This still doesn't explain you sheeping every wagon but the one on Eve.

There's also a dramatic difference between how you responded to me versus how Molla did. His frustration feels genuine, like we misunderstood him. Yours is just there for the sake of pushing me and skitter.

Auro and I also had worked things out. That meant no one was going to lynch Auro.

[Titus]

Mod: Please replace me with Tiger Shark. It's a hydra of me and Shark.

[Titus]

maybe it's skitter+Guilty

he mislynches me today and then just has to lynch skitter and Titus doesn't matter which order to give him the win

Why should I not interpret this as a scumslip? What are you trying to say here if town?

[Titus]

you're pretty smart Titus you can work it out on your own

Skitter can't mislynch himself if he's scum. You can't keep your mindset straight.

It's Guilty and Eve.

[Titus]

Eve is saying I can bus skitter and then lynch you in LYLO.

Also yes of course it is me and Eve that's why I'm going through all this effort of reevaliating on Eve and literally volunteering myself to be a possible mislynch if she flips scum

Titus no thoughts on MT's catchup?

MT is pretty obvtown from that catchup but I already had them as obvtown. As for interacting with their reads, I want to wait for their full catchup.

[Titus]

Eve is saying I can bus skitter and then lynch you in LYLO.

Also yes of course it is me and Eve that's why I'm going through all this effort of reevaliating on Eve and literally volunteering myself to be a possible mislynch if she flips scum

Titus no thoughts on MT's catchup?

But it wouldn't be lylo if you bussed Skitter

[Titus]

Titus I wanna know why you said earlier that scum!skitter was competent and carried a game, and why that isn't what she might be doing here

and also I wanna know who your VCA says my partner is now, if you're still going to push this

Because she's suspected by almost everyone. I need to redo my VCA again.

HURT: Skitter

I recommend using hurt tags as a method of stating who should vote first. Once someone is hammered through those tags, they must vote. This allows obvtown to vote last.

I put Skitter there because of the overwhelming suspicion on him.

[Titus]

My gut goes back to GL Limit but I am seriously going to kick myself if that's it because I talked myself out of it.

[Titus]

Well, if you think the team is me and Skitter, you should vote hurt Skitter. With enough votes, she'll be forced to vote first. That's a benefit.

FMPOV, as long as Skitter doesn't guess town, we can eliminate possibilities. FYPOV, scum is voting first


I do think we have a shot at actually lynching scum today, but town has to work as a team and accept differing viewpoints.

I do feel if Skitter is scum and I am wrong, there's only one move Skitter scum can make here. I highly doubt she is though, even now.

[Titus]

I am glad everyone had fun.

I just couldn't get in sync with town and they couldn't get in sync with me. I take responsibility for that. I did debate lynching Skitter at lylo minus one day but felt wholly unsupported, so I went to Eve instead. I suppose I can figure out ways to make myself easier to work with, even when my methods are tarnished. This was a rare game where scum had no fucks given the entire game, which really fucks with VCA. I am glad I was able to see GL town though.

I would play with all of you again. We got trounced due to 2 v 7 mountainous. But that trouncing was fair and completely within the spirit of the rules. GG scum well played.