Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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I've proposed it numerous times. I'm VT. Pretty sure everyone else who hasn't claimed is too.In post 1335, BlackVoid wrote:Still reading. I read everything so it's going to take me a while. Can we have one more person vote extension please? Massive? Flubber? Culted? Dierfire?
By the way, no comments on my mass-claim proposal? We're a day off from lylo so unless there's some part of site meta I don't understand, nowisthe optimal time for mass-claim.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Mini 1848 has an odd cop but no even. (also has a jailkeeper)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=68980
Now I still think it's very possible that we have both. It is possible for us to only have one though, if that's the point of contention. I could see 3 goons, a JK and an odd night cop being reasonably balanced. It's also a potential explanation for why massive would be sure that we don't have an even cop, yet believe that we might buy it.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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I'd be more inclined to take that seriously from someone who isn't voting me entirely based on OMGUS.
So why do I think you're scum? I've explained a few times but lets go through it. Firstly and most strongly it's just process of elimination. I have town reads on Dier, IamI and AJ. I'm willing to entertain the idea that massive is lying but for personally unless we get pretty strong evidence otherwise I'm inclined to take role claims at face value. Even if massive was lying he'd be very unlikely to clear a scum buddy so BV is town. That leaves 3 people of which you are one.
From here I decided to try and narrow it down by looking for patterns of interaction. Naomi is flinging a lot of shade at Flubber, whilst you are acting exactly like I would expect Flubber's scum partner to act. Moreover looking back through the game you frequently avoid interacting with Flubber despite the two of you having a pretty strong scum read on Jin. You never really provide a good explanation for that read either.
Then as I noted earlier you happen to make an argument that we should all be voting Newman whilst massive is the main wagon in town. The timing on this is exactly the timing I would expect from scum trying to divert a wagon on one of their buddies onto a townie.
None of this makes me certain you are scum. However your actions are consistent with scum motives and you've contributed very little to town.-
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Kairal Goon
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You know just rereading your ISO... the entirety of the first two days you never have a scum read who hasn't been confirmed town at this point. Never. It's all Io, Newman and Jin. We all have bad reads sometimes and none of us are coming out of this game looking good. Still I think it's particularly notable that you only ever scumread people that we now know are town. I don't think the same thing is true of any other people left alive.-
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Kairal Goon
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If you can find a player I don't have interactions with I'd be curious to see it.
I picked up your defense of massive because I was specifically looking to see if anyone tried to swing the wagon away from massive when he had the most votes. Guess who did?
Jin got lynched because I noticed a pattern of votes between you and Flubber and decided to see if you were onto something or if you were scum colluding. Results suggest the latter
I'm hedging because I'm town and don't have access to everyone's alignment. I think you are the most likely player to be scum, but no I'm not certain. I don't have a smoking gun or anything.
I am however finding it hard to believe you are arguing in good faith and legitimately don't see where I've pointed out your scum motives. Repeatedly.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Hmm though I'm finding it hard to justify my town read on IamI now. going back through his Iso he spends a lot of time pushing Jin too.
I'm sure that Dier is town and there's been no push from anyone except IamI. I don't think that's useful for scum- it's not a lynch likely to happen.
However if the plan was always to run out the clock, then IamI wouldn't need to get a mislynch.
I do think he can't be scum if culted is, and a lot of culted's push on me looks pretty scummy.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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That refers to Dier.
I'm wavering a bit on this scum team. Reread Flubber's Iso- if he's just manufacturing a fight with massive he's doing a really good job of it. I think it really is more likely that they aren't scum buddies. They both line up with culted individually but don't fit together well at all.
That leaves the third member of the team unaccounted for. Bleh-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Also this post exactly mirror's my feelings on massive's current arguments.In post 1064, Flubbernugget wrote:I've only attacked your play in a non discriminatory way so I have no clue what you're going on about
You can't play this poorly, piss someone off on it, and then expect it to pass as some sort of poe reaction test...thing.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Um... Well I haven't played many games. This is only my third on the site and it's true that I haven't necessarily been the best at scum hunting.In post 1434, Dierfire wrote:@Kairal
Could you direct me to the best case that you've ever made as Town against a Mafia player?
I got lynched Day 1 in the first (I was town). In the second... well we never caught one of the scum at all really. We only won due to power roles.
That's part of why I'm wavering on these reads so much I guess. I don't really have a good track record.-
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Kairal Goon
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For example as massive notes I've been pretty inconsistent on his claim. On the one hand he's been my top scum read for ages. On the other hand nobody's countered his claim and I still don't really see the need for a scum team to bother with this gambit.
The Day 1 play he and Aj are discussing is a perfect example of being sort of weird but not definitely weird enough to make something of. Normally you'd expect that massive would A) counterclaim and get the scum killed B) decide he should hide his role and sort it out later. Instead he does this weird hybrid where he votes him and says he doesn't believe it but without claiming. This means nobody votes Newman so it doesn't help catch scum, but would also stand out to a scum team paying attention.
However it doesn't serve any useful scum purpose either. It's just weird.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Unfortunately I guess I've already said everything I have to say about it.
Culted fits well into scum teams, hasn't been very helpful and has a pretty bad push on me.
Flubber: I feel like his Jin stuff feels like collaboration with Culted. I find it odd as noted earlier that he spends so much time being suspicious of both massive and Mini. Given how much time those two argued Day 1 you'd think he'd be townreading one of them right? Amusingly I'm in the same spot. I haven't liked a lot of massive's content and a lot of Flubber's reactions mirror mine. I think I'd probably prefer to lynch culted and then come back for flubber once it's confirmed that culted is scum.
Naomi: Her reading order makes things tricky. It's reasonable to expect some odd opinions from reading current stuff and old stuff while missing the middle. I can't really justify it but I'm getting a gut read of town here. Her predecessors are both pretty hard to read I think. Cloud's nonsense is bad play for both alignments, Shadow's lurkiness seemed like it could be scummy but he replaced out for it suggesting it wasn't a deliberate strategy. The main thing is that she doesn't fit with culted or with flubber unless scum decided to bus already. Which is think is not optimal but it's not impossible either.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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The other thing about Flubber is that he took massive's cop claim in stride. As I did initially as well. Given we were both scum reading massive, and I'm town I should probably assume he's town as well?
Hmm. I also can't really decide whether or not scum would be more likely to accept the claim or dispute it. I've already decided that flubber and massive are very unlikely to be partners. Now scum flubber would therefore know that massive is telling the truth so he might think it's not worth arguing about. There are still enough people with a bit of suspicion that he can get lynched. (me or Naomi, who I think is also an unlikely teammate).
However scum benefit from confusion- a town that strongly believes massive is a town that has fewer suspects and thus more chance of finding a scum team.
Town flubber is probably caught between his initial distrust of massive and his willingness to accept claims. So yeah I'm not sure-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Ok so my main scumread on culted comes from him hving useful interactions for a scum team with Flubber and massive. I'm not scum reading either of them right now it's a little hard to justify a culted read.In post 983, Shadow_step wrote:So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
I'l get caught up during the weekend.
Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?
Do you think scum shadow would post this about me if we were on a team culted?-
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Kairal
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Kairal
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Kairal Goon
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Dier has kindly reminded me that my reads suck. However this game we've had 4 major wagons- massive, Io, Newman and Jin. We've definitely been wrong about 3 of those and I believe we're wrong about the 4th. I also have no really clear reads on anyone despite it being Day 3.
This suggests to me that we are dealing with a very good scum team.
Therefore rather than trying to scumread them individually I think the better plan is to look for a pattern.
Specifically a good scum team will never want to be caught holding the same position. I suspect we will almost never (or maybe never at all) find an argument that all 3 scum players agree with. So I'm going to look through the thread and see if I can find a pattern that fits.-
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Kairal Goon
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Alright now I think scum are particularly unlikely to want to be caught on a town wagon- no way all 3 of them voted for Io. There must be at least one scum who didn't vote for Io.In post 867, Gamma Emerald wrote:Vote Count 1.12 LYNCH
6 - Io: Dierfire, MiniDeathStar, Aj The Epic, HellloooNewman, -Grey-, I Am Innocent, culted
0 - Dierfire:
1 - HellloooNewman: massive
0 - MiniDeathStar:
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Secret Agent Jin:
0 - Shadow_Step:
0 - -Grey-:
0 - culted:
4 - massive: Flubbernugget, Secret Agent Jin, Io, Kairal
0 - Aj The Epic:
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Shadow_Step
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, Shadow_Step, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, massive, and HellloooNewman
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)
That means: Me,massive, flubber, Naomi-
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Kairal Goon
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For this one it's Dier, BV, Naomi and AJIn post 960, mhsmith0 wrote:-
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Kairal Goon
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Not an official VC but I'm pretty sure I checked it at the time and it was right.In post 782, MiniDeathStar wrote:December 15, 2016 - 12:00 PM (GMT)
Day 1
In the prolonged absense of the mayor, Gamma Emerald, the citizens of Murdertown tentatively
recounted the vote slips themselves and updated the bulletin board.
: culted, Aj the Epic, -Grey-, I Am Innocent, Shadow_step, KairalHellloooNewman (L-1)
: Flubbernugget, Secret Agent Jin, Iomassive (L-4)
: Dierfire, MiniDeathStarIo (L-5)
: HellloooNewmanMiniDeathStar (L-6)
: massiveSecret Agent Jin (L-6)
Not voting:
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline for Day 1 actions:
December 20, 2016 - 3:30 AM (GMT)
You have (expired on 2016-12-20 03:30:00) to discuss and decide on a lynch.
Unofficial Vote Count
Not actually a lynch so the minority this time is: culted, Aj, IamI, Naomi and me-
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Kairal Goon
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This one is me, Flubber or BV.In post 529, Gamma Emerald wrote:Vote Count 1.08
1 - Io: Dierfire
0 - Dierfire:
1 - HellloooNewman: culted
2 - MiniDeathStar: Shadow_Step, massive
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Secret Agent Jin:
1 - Shadow_Step: HellloooNewman
1 - -Grey-: I Am Innocent
0 - culted:
5 - massive: Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar, -Grey-, Secret Agent Jin, Kairal
1 - Aj The Epic: Io
0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Aj The Epic
culted FoSes Io, Dierfire, HellloooNewman, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Flubbernugget, I am Innocent, Secret Agent Jin, Shadow_Step, -Grey-, massive, and Aj The Epic
MiniDeathStar FoSes Flubbernugget, Io, and massive
With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is (expired on 2016-12-19 23:30:00)
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Kairal Goon
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In theory there should at least one scum on and off each wagon. I'm just looking at the minority (since that's easier to narrow down)In post 1459, Aj The Epic wrote:...What? You went from people off wagons to now people on wagons-
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Kairal Goon
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Now no VC for this last one. massive's cop claim. I think scum are unlikely to all be on one side of this argument- especially since as I said earlier scum could consider either position to be beneficial.
With no VC I'm just going on memory but I believe it's: Aj and Naomi against, culted, flubber, Dier and IamI for. I guess you can just chuck me into whichever camp.-
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Kairal Goon
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Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.
Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum
Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.
Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI. The other side is Flubber or Dier.
Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier,
Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.-
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Kairal Goon
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EditIn post 1463, Kairal wrote:Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.
Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum
Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.
Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI. The other side is Flubber, Dier or Naomi
Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier, IamI or Naomi
Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.-
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Kairal Goon
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Now... what use is this? I feel like we can say with high confidence that the scum team would not be entirely for Jin or Io's lynch. That rules out any combo consisting entirely of Dier, Culted, IamI and AJ. Jin's lynch rules out culted, Flubber and IamI.
On the other side we can see that Flubber is the only one on massive's lynch (obviously I don't suspect myself). I've criticized that argument previously but I think lining it up with Io's lynch gives it a bit more credence.
Io's lynch tells me that Flubber or Naomi must be scum. The cop argument suggests that Naomi or Aj must be scum. If we lynch Naomi and she's town that implicates two scum.
In short Naomi or Flubber look like a good lynch.-
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Kairal Goon
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Now then. If Naomi is town then Aj and Flubber are buddies. Checking through the list there's nothing that refutes that. Interestingly Flubber and Aj never agree. Not a sure sign of anything but interesting. Also worth noting there's nothing that rules out all Naomi and Flubber being buds.
Anyway it basically comes down to whether or not I want the more likely scum (Flubber) or the greater information (Naomi). I guess I'm fine with either.
I'll go with Naomi I think
VOTE: Naomi-
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Kairal Goon
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Uh... did you get high marks for this project? Please say yes.In post 1466, Aj The Epic wrote:Christ that looks like my middle school science fair project.-
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Kairal Goon
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I see. Well I feel reasonably confident that scum won't clearly work as a block. The entire point is to try and find a way to hunt scum that doesn't rely on my reads or views on their interactions since I haven't been confident about that at all so far.
For what it's worth both Flubber and Naomi have been reasonably suspicious today and this different approach seems to indicate that suspicion was well founded.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Bleh another edit. Naomi was on the wrong side of the Newman lynch.In post 1464, Kairal wrote:
EditIn post 1463, Kairal wrote:Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.
Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum
Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.
Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI and Naomi. The other side is Flubber, Dier
Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier, IamI or Naomi
Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.-
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Kairal Goon
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Kairal Goon
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Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't
Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.
My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.-
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Kairal Goon
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Aside from that you seem to be insinuating that I'm manipulating the results. I've made it pretty clear what my source is and how I reached these conclusions. I have no way of manipulating what votes people have made. If you were town you'd be trying to help me improve this- instead you are suggesting that any kind of vote analysis is pointless. Instead you say I should trust my reads which have been wrong at least 3 times already (probably 4 given massive). It's pretty clear that your interest in doing so is self serving: I wasn't scumreading you but my analysis suggests you are a scum partner.-
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Kairal Goon
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