Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Aj The Epic]

Naomi, Flubber, you|massive

[Kairal]

Seems like we're both fine with a flubber or Naomi vote. Well I think you're less likely to be on a team with Naomi so I'd prefer you to keep voting Flubber.

[Kairal]

From your perspective if I were scum I'd be bussing either way right? So you should be fine with that.

[Naomi-Tan]

in short Naomi or Flubber look like a good lynch.

Holy cheese.. she got to where I was yesterday XD

[Naomi-Tan]

I see. Well I feel reasonably confident that scum won't clearly work as a block. The entire point is to try and find a way to hunt scum that doesn't rely on my reads or views on their interactions since I haven't been confident about that at all so far.

For what it's worth both Flubber and Naomi have been reasonably suspicious today and this different approach seems to indicate that suspicion was well founded.

Wait I been suspicious.. JEez.. talk about belittling your efforts.. I mean come on this has been a lot of work.

[Kairal]

He! He got to where you were yesterday. Yeah that post of yours is an interesting prediction.

[Kairal]

Haha sorry. For what it's worth I'm voting Flubber. You know if that makes you feel better

[Kairal]

Ok so cleaning the list up a little for my own benefit I've removed BV, massive and myself.

Io lynch: Flubber or Naomi must be scum. On the majority side: one of Dier, culted, IamI and AJ must be scum

Jin lynch: Dier, AJ or Naomi must be scum. On the flipside: one of culted, IamI and flubber.

Newman (not an actual lynch so I have less confidence on this one): Culted, Aj, IamI and Naomi. The other side is Flubber, Dier

Massive (also not a lynch and not at L-1 so even less confidence): Flubber. The other 5 against of course. That being: AJ, culted, Dier, IamI or Naomi

Cop claim (not a lynch but I still have some confidence in it because everyone but myself has been fairly definitive with their positions): Naomi, Aj. Alternatively: Flubber Culted, Dier, IamI.

Edit

Bleh another edit. Naomi was on the wrong side of the Newman lynch.

[Naomi-Tan]

Flubs is a good middle ground as its yours. mine, AJ's, Culted and I think IaI's red list. (which means the majority of town do think there red and could go for hammer. but I'm still reading) I think Once I vote too the dynamic will hopefully shift enough to put L-1

[Kairal]

Unfortunately you are wrong about culted. If we're in luck he's scum and we can still get a flubber lynch.

[Kairal]

Hmm so both Aj and Naomi are ok with a flubber vote. I guess one of them is bussing. Fine with me!

[Aj The Epic]

>1 of them is bussing

You seem oddly confident for someone who basically drew their reads out of a hat.

[Aj The Epic]

God I'm actually super uncomfortable with your last page of posts.

This:

Ok so my main scumread on culted comes from him hving useful interactions for a scum team with Flubber and massive. I'm not scum reading either of them right now it's a little hard to justify a culted read.

To this:

Hmm so both Aj and Naomi are ok with a flubber vote. I guess one of them is bussing. Fine with me!

Speaks for itself.

Outside of that, there are multiple problems at play.

First, you're manufacturing reads and dropping your old ones entirely for no good reason. It's not natural at all.
Second, the method to develop your reads is flawed. It relies on flawed logic, it isn't a thorough case study of your own controls (scum won't all vote together, flawed in itself) and it doesn't add anything to pass the 'eye test' (aka how people have actually interacted). Add to it you add basically arbitrary variables and this starts to get scary with you basically looking to paint the results as you want.
Third, the results aren't good. As demonstrated above, you go from "I scum read Flubber" to "I'm not scumreading him for unexplained reasons" to "I'm scumreading him because of his arbitrary on/off tendency on lynch wagons

in relation to other players

. Let me remind you that town can be suspicious about others on their wagon, so it immediately poisons this without additional analysis.

My own conclusion is there's no way in hell these reads you have now could possible be good compared to reads developed through the entire game. Even people who are re-reading and re-accessing have a natural progression (but I didn't notice x, y, z when I first looked through / jin hadn't flipped yet so now I read this post this way). This was a readjustment of you reads that you already had before you started. That's why the on/off declaration of whose scum (even though ANYONE could be with your methods) came up with the results they did even though there's really nothing scientific behind it. Why do you go from Flubber/Culted/Massive -->IAI? to Flubber/Naomi/Me? And now you randomly townread Culted. Enough to tell Naomi off about her read. There is something incredibly wrong with this, and while I can't tell what exactly your end goal with it is, you did this to manufacture new reads to suit you better as opposed to actually believing them. I work with huge sets of data and run all sorts of statistical tests... there's literally nothing in your last page that should instill you with that kind of confidence.

[Kairal]

Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't

Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.

My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.

[Naomi-Tan]

this is why I told them to reafirm their reads. in their head reds had convinced them of falsehoods by rereading you can go; these are mY reads uninfluenced

[Kairal]

Aside from that you seem to be insinuating that I'm manipulating the results. I've made it pretty clear what my source is and how I reached these conclusions. I have no way of manipulating what votes people have made. If you were town you'd be trying to help me improve this- instead you are suggesting that any kind of vote analysis is pointless. Instead you say I should trust my reads which have been wrong at least 3 times already (probably 4 given massive). It's pretty clear that your interest in doing so is self serving: I wasn't scumreading you but my analysis suggests you are a scum partner.

[Kairal]

Ultimately though regardless of the method I've landed exactly on who Aj and Naomi claim is their top scum read. Neither of you have any reason to complain about that... if you're town.

[Aj The Epic]

Before we start: I'm not saying you manipulated the results so much as manufactured them and that the method couldn't produce anything useful if it was able to produce anything at all.

So let me preface this continuation with the following note: The only way I see Kairal doing this as town is having these reads before hand and for whatever reason trying to justify them with handwaving as to not look completely out of place. It... doesn't make a lot of sense to me why he'd do it this way. Here's the thing: One of the major reasons I've townread Kairal for so long is his reads have been fluid, have had natural progression and have made sense, even if they're a bit weak or somewhat waffled (kairal gets talked out of a lot of shit that he really shouldn't...). Especially since kairal wouldn't have a read jump on flubber if it were predetermined. Ergo read the rest of this post with kairal!scum as the control.

My biggest question is why does Kairal keep flubber's read scum after this? We know the two options: Bus, Mislynch. I think bus can make sense here but mislynch lends to a more advantageous scum motive. Kairal scumreads both me and Naomi. At this point, had he decided, he could've convinced massive/myself rather easily to buy into Naomi before Flubber. That scenario assumes Naomi is town to pass the lynch off in the first place. If Flubber was scum with Kairal, Kairal could attempt to drag him into lylo. Course... it doesn't do much, I think Kairal/Flubber would be the next two lynches.

It'd actually have been more natural for Kairal to continue a scum read of flubber from beginning to end in a hard bus. Be adamant about the lynch, gain the most town points. Doing this casts a ton of suspicion on Kairal. And really, removing Culted/IAI/Massive from her scumread list is a lot easier than going through this theatrical display. If Flubber was truly scum, this is a hard lynch to drop under any circumstance for a scum partner. Yet there are, as stated above, ways to do it. If he's town, Kairal could fumble on it, be insecure and not look super gung-ho on the lynch going into lylo for two lynches in a row that just look strange.

The drop of culted as a scum read in and of itself isn't awful. Well. Depends on your definition. Culted had been pressuring kairal pretty hard recently, and IaI, one of Kairal's other beginning scum reads, was/is pressing culted and it seems those two probably don't share an alignment. Had Kairal stated one of the two to be scum, it makes more sense. Picking a side that he believes is probably more useful to the town because it's an opinion and it's someone arguing for/against what's happening. Instead, from the looks of things, Kairal is seeing the entire thing as TvT. The piece of this that's important is culted had started to slip into the null area for a lot of people but IaI so it'd be pretty easy to bust out an easy town read. Is it possible to town read culted? Sure, but I think it's pertinent in 'reaccessing' reads to at least address IaI's point on that. In a way, this read change both follows Kairal's trend of being incredibly easy to persuade but also breaks the mold by not having really put a lot of consideration into it (as I'd argue the entire theory followed suit).

P-edit: Even with it being a response about culted's reads, it doesn't change the fact that culted has been completely dropped from Kairal's scum reads.

As far as I know, Naomi wasn't a strong scum read of Culted prior to this. I've mentioned this is odd that Kairal scumreads both Naomi and I (since we've done nothing but argue with me scumreading her, and my read on CK/Shadow/Naomi has been NAI to scum most of the game). Kairal amends it that he thinks it's TvS in 1467, but does little to explain why or who's the extra person. In fact, it's another written-in mislynch that he ADMITS to. A day away from Lylo he's giving himself a mislynch chance on a 50/50. Let's go back to Flubber being innocent for a moment. IF flubber is innocent, LYLO occurs tomorrow and scum have 3 of the 4 remaining. More than likely, they'd take that bet at a 50/50 between Naomi and I and pull ahead. Hell, they'd only need one person to vote me and then win it, so it's not really a 50/50.

More importantly, Kairal's done zilch for scumreading me all game and only started scumreading Naomi for the short period of time when Shadow came after her to naomi's replace in. And we're to believe off this method he's got a scumread strong enough to believe it on not even full VCA.

If I had to guess, Kairal's indication shows Culted scum, Naomi scum, himself scum. Naomi is biased on my own read of her but unless I'm going to read Dierfire as scum, who's basically unmentioned and a consistent town read of mine, there's not a lot that makes sense from this perspective. Flubber could be scum here and it could just be a poorly executed bus/someone that scum has determined to not live through lylo either. The one flaw is Shadow did toss some shade at Kairal, which doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, though it wasn't followed by a case nor vote so it was just shade. But between this, the Jin incident and some inconsistencies we've seen from Kairal today, I think this is it.

Culted/Kairal/Naomi|Flubber.

VOTE: Kairal

Ultimately though regardless of the method I've landed exactly on who Aj and Naomi claim is their top scum read. Neither of you have any reason to complain about that... if you're town.

...No? My top scum read was Naomi going in. And DAMN RIGHT I have issues with how you got here.

[Kairal]

Well that's a lot of words. Firstly: When I said Naomi was wrong about culted I meant that she claimed he had a scumread on Flubber. He doesn't

Secondly the reason I'm so confident about bussing is because I don't actually expect you to do it.

My guess was that you'd find a weak excuse to decide that I'm scum over Flubber

. I suspect that you'll succeed in getting me lynched but in doing so it's going to be extremely clear to everyone that you aren't actually willing to lynch Flubber. They'll get both of you. No guarantee they'll get the last scum but hey 2 scum for 1 town is pretty good.

And here it is. Just as I predicted you are not actually willing to lynch Flubber. Flubber and AJ are scum for sure. Doesn't necessarily clear Naomi but I think it probably does. Town when you are reading back through my posts tomorrow please pay attention here!

[Aj The Epic]

Address the post and I'll consider giving that shit the time of day. As of right now all it is is serving to get the LYLO game in gear.

[Kairal]

Why would I bother? You're caught scum, obviously I'm not gonna persuade you.

[Aj The Epic]

Because I addressed this point before seeing it in my post. That you have a genuine wincondition if Flubber is town with the way you set your reads. You still have a ton of explaining to do on everything I've mentioned.

Why did you think this was a good method?
Why did you fumble your flubber read?
When did you start scum reading Naomi?

And that's before we get to the part of "why even drop your reads entirely for this in the first place?" It's obviously not thorough.

[Kairal]

You really did take me for a ride you know that? Even got me doubting the cop claim and everything. It was well played but I have you now.

If anyone who isn't AJ or Flubber has something they want to talk about I'm down for it. No point bothering to fall for AJ's stuff again.

[Kairal]

I think given his defensiveness over Flubber culted is probably the third member. I'm definitely less sure about that than I am about the other two so don't go for him first.

[Aj The Epic]

W/E this sudden change in personality is enough to prove what I've written. I'm going to bed.