Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

Hello everybody! First thoughts: Stupid, stupid Ryan and yuck! an SK.

Time for the reread post (written as I read through):

Page 1:

Originality gets an

FoS

for his weird lynching thing, though maybe Elias is a bit strong, thinking it is L-3 on the first page.

Page 2:

Similar possible opportunism from Oman who votes Orig; he explains his vote even less.

FoS: Oman

Lucienne gets some points from me for saying she agrees on Orig but for also rightly questioning Oman’s vote. Same with BS. Same with Vamp. Same with shaft.ed. I don’t like Orig in #44. Oman has presented a trap; I have encountered this before and it was by a vanilla. Elias votes Oman for being opportunistic; a little hypocrisy methinks.

Page 3:

FoS: Aly

His argument against Orig seems very contrived to me. Lucienne mixes up Oman for Spurg as a vote reason; I don’t like. Shaft.ed points this out.

Page 4:

Discussion about Vamp’s lurking. *yawns*

Page 5:

In #105 Aly prods Vamp for opinions, specifically on Oman and BS, which strikes me as odd. BS claims “something” non-vanilla. Don’t like Aly hopping on Vamp’s wagon.

More FoS: AlyG

Page 6:

Oooh…

FoS: Orig

I do not like his Vamp vote, since he says Vamp is suspicious when Vamp is just being accused of lurkiness. I also do not like AlyG then posting a “Don’t lynch Vamp yet, but I will be fine with it in the next weeks”; I thought this was about lurking not suspicion.

Vote: AlyG

Page 7:

Vamp is AlyG’s main suspect…why? The vote was pressure for lurking.

Page 8:

AlyG swaps back to Originality after Lucinne votes Orig. Oman queries why AlyG is vote hopping and his answer doesn’t explain much.

Page 9:

Carrot votes AlyG!! Finally someone notices AlyG’s scumminess. Lucienne says Carrot’s post is “interesting” and then votes BS for non-content; Lucienne makes no real comment on AlyG. Shaft and Oman get townie points for attacking Orig’s fishing. Post #219 by AlyG is gold:
[quote=“AlyG”] i've already explained why i kept my vote on Vampeaneze. Please re-read my posts. It was so he would remain pressured and be more inclined to defend himself.” [/quote]
Then WHY did you accept Vamp’s lynch? Then AlyG deflects onto Oman.
BS looks very newbie to me (partially influenced by my views of BS meta). I don’t like the shift to BS

Page 10:

I don’t like the vote by Oman. Shafted and Orig get “townie brownies” for going against the lynch of BS.

Page 11:

AlyG supports getting rid of Orig today and BS tomorrow; a bit of a two-for-one….as Shaft.ed then points out. #267 AlyG really goes Inquisition on dybeck for not joining the Orig wagon.

Page 12:

Carrot rightly points out AlyG’s “well s/he did it too”. Good grief, AlyG then tries to deflect suspicion onto Carrot as Luci’s scumbuddy. I don’t like really think Oman’s vote for Ryan is persuasive.

Page 13:

Don’t like Dybeck’s vote either.

FoS: Oman

for a contrived case against Ryan. Orig and BS switch to Ryan. AlyG places a HoS.

Page 14:

Orig immediately jumps to defending himself.

HoS: Orig

Oman gives AlyG townie brownies…kind of like giving Hitler the Nobel Peace Prize.

FoS: Oman

AlyG’s first post looks to me like she is scum and didn’t NK BS in the hopes that we will lynch BS today. I know how WIFOM this is from me, but her faux exasperation about it and the fact she immediately suggests we “ate his claim” does this to me. She takes it back, realising he never claimed; doesn’t change her immediate response though. Shaft rightly FoSes AlyG on the basis of Carrot’s NK. AlyG’s #343 is so damned WIFOM. Orig’s voting logic is messed up and defensive of AlyG.

Now, all in all,
Elias_the_thief: Has done nothing to arouse my suspicion, but I may do a reread on him just to be sure.
Oman: Started off well but became increasingly contrived and is now defending AlyG. From the above, I gave

HoS: Oman

AlyG: Scum. Plain and simple. I have already voted but I will put it down here again for mod’s convenience and because I want to vote him again.

Vote: AlyG

Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don’t think is scum.
Lucienne: Not particularly notable but a potential scumbuddy with AlyG based on earlier stuff.
originality: On one hand, AlyG has been rabidly against Orig. On the other, Orig’s latest play is defending himself and AlyG.

FoS: originality

shaft.ed: Town.
dybeck: Similar to Elias.

[vollkan]

Page 3: How is my argument contrived? Please explain.

You fully acknowledged that Orig looked newbish and yet you sought to concoct a case against him.
1) The lynch lurkers thing - Despite you thinking him newb, you actually took this seriously as though he was trying to get rid of all the lurkers. The obvious thing to do is explain to him why a LaLurkers policy is stupid; instead you attack him for it.
2) Whether or not Lucienne was "lurking" (she wasn't, FTR) - Again, this is plainly just Orig being stupid. Instead, you make it sound like he was conspiring to score a scum lynch.
3) Agreement - Again; he is confused but you make it sound like a buddying up conspiracy.
4) "im town so dont vote me" - Again; his actions plainly bespeak of his newbishness but you make it a conspiracy.

Don't get me wrong, Orig could well be scum. However, AlyG has twisted these four points into scum plots when it's pretty clear it is just stupidity. Hanlon's Razor: cock-up before conspiracy.

Page 5: What is odd about asking questions about 3 users? you expect me to include questions on everyone? these users (Orig, Oman and BS) had all done something noteworthy the last few posts. I didn't mention anyone else because they hadn't done anything which striked me as weird at that recent time. How is that odd? And i didn't just "hop" on Vamp's Wagon, i held back from voting him and waited for a response to my questions which i didn't get. So i voted him to put more pressure on him so he would talk.

Prodding for opinions is something I consider a scumtell. By all means, say "X is not contributing" but specifically asking "What do you think of A, B and C?" looks like you are trying to get a particular response.

Not voting immediately doesn't justify it. Vamp had promised content; he was "at a friend's house".

Page 6: About Vamp, he was tied with the most votes and he had pressure on him. There was a chance of him being lynched with no chance to explain himself which is why i said give him at least a week to explain himself. If he didn't then it meant that he was desperately trying to continue keeping out of conversation. So he would then he would be worthy of being lynched. And how can you say "I thought this was about lurking not suspicion." VampenezeHunter was suspicious because he was trying to keep out of conversation and was obviously lurking! which is why he had suspicion!

See this is the thing. You vote to pressure Vamp to speak; I don't like how you did it, but whatever. Now it moves to you supporting his LYNCH. I mean, you go from wanting him to speak to wanting him dead. The ONLY thing which changed in the meantime was Orig's vote. You recognised the prospect of him swinging and you altered accordingly.

Page 7: He was my main suspect because of his continous lurking and how he wouldn't respond to my questions. How is there anything wrong with that?

You specifically said you were voting for pressure. You didn't mention suspicion until a lynch was on the cards. Don't be obtuse.

Page 9: I would have accepted Vamp's lynch if he didn't explain himself. If he didn't explain himself then it would be obvious he's esperately trying to keep out of the conversation, which i've already said.

What was there for him to explain, other than that he had not been active (which you have constantly just assumed to be a scum strategy). You shifted from wanting him to respond to your prodding questions to actually suspecting him, without articulating WHY you suspected him.

[vollkan]

Wow this is great, first we get a shortened D1, now it looks like there's probably a SK in the game.

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

vote: shaft.ed

Huh? Did I miss something?

[vollkan]

Cross-posted; but still. What do/did you mean?

[vollkan]

1) While I agree that AlyG's play was a bit questionable in the first day, you paint it as glaringly scummy. A lot of this analysis is based on AlyG attacking obviously newbish plays, but you fail to take into account that AlyG is in fact also new to the site. It seems that some of his heartened attacks could also be made from a new players perspective. For this reason, I am definitely suspicious of AlyG, but the way you paint him as obvo-scum is a bit over the top.

Your point is valid and a good one. I'd argue that AlyG is not a complete novice, though. AlyG has been here long enough not to be able to rely on concessions for inexperience. The mistakes that he has made and the number and nature of those mistakes accumulates to scumminess. I think we should be wary of possible opportunism (potentially see also: Oman) nonetheless because it could well be due to his slight inexperience.

2) You hardly even mention Dr. Blackstrike's play at all. I also meta'd him and think I understand what he's doing to some extent, but for god's sake he basically said "I'm acting like scum, therefore I won't be NK'd like scum because the scum are setting me up not because I am scum." This deserves and FoS no matter what you meta'd on him.

I have prior experience with BS and, since you say you have meta'd, you will know what I mean. When I read the part you refer to, I cringed, but I'm not going to hold suspicion against BS until he does something I recognise as being anti-town, rather than just ridiculous. His "so I don't get NKed" thing is idiotic, but I think it more likely than not he was genuine because it is entirely consistent with his play meta-wise.

In short, I do have my eye on BS, but I am waiting for him to do something which I regard as inconsistently anti-town.

Combining these points with the fact that we got absolutely no read on your predecesor D1 and I am a tiny bit suspicious of you. mFoS vollkan

I haven't replaced into a game before. I know that a lot of people do reread their predecessor but I have never understood why. If you would like me to do a reread of my play before replacement I can, and I will combine it with a read of BS too.

[vollkan]

Oman, earlier you said:

dybeck, there are so many other solutions to that that I am tempted to vote you for being irrational. Two things saved you: The unvote and the fact that AlyG's post is still worse.

When you wrote this past post were you more suspicious of AlyG then Dybeck (that's how I am reading it, but I could be mistaken). If so, what has changed since in regards to Dybeck?

[vollkan]

Shaft.ed, I think you're the only person ever to get so defensive over somebody trying to persuade the town that you should not be lynched.

Oman, none of your scenarios are remotely likely in a game this size, with three vanilla townies already revealed. We're looking at basic roles here, I guarantee it. Also, you need to reread my post and check your math in your last post.

Dybeck, it doesn't matter whether or not you are saying shaft.ed should be lynched now. The fact that you are saying he is the SK means that you are saying that, at some point, you want him lynched.

Frankly, I think this "don't kill the SK" thing is garbage. I read what shaft and Oman have to say on Dybeck and I think you have both dealt with this very thoroughly.

You (dybeck) are saying that we should keep the SK alive so as to improve our chances of winning, presumably. That's all well and good, but that only works if we know the SK's identity. Otherwise, I cannot see how it really improves our odds of winning. I mean, fine, the SK can take out the scum, but if we don't know who the SK is we really aren't much better off than with the scum. Indeed, the SK will probably be harder to find since there is no possibility of connecting to buddies.

Dybeck's logic ONLY works pro-town if we make a sort of pact like "SK tells us who he is and then we don't lynch the SK unless two townie deaths come up on one night". Obviously, that is suicidal for the SK and guarantees that in, say, a situation of 2 townies : 1 SK that the SK will undoubtedly lose.

[vollkan]

To add to Vollkan, directing the SK as if it were a vig is stupid because A) whats to stop the SK killing the town and saying "well we thought he was scum" and B) it could just be a vig. I'm sick of saying this, You have no evidence this is an SK.

You just made think of something really important!

If there is a vig, I feel quite confident that it would therefore have been the mafia that killed carrot. I really cannot see any pro-town vig sensibly killing Carrot. This enhances my suspicion of AlyG. I mean, Carrot was convinced on AlyG am and, hence, even if Carrot is a prodigious scumhunter (which it looked from what I read), the scum could have been pretty sure of an AlyG lynch the next day. By that, I mean that if AlyG is not scum then the scum could simply have let Carrot live and push an AlyG lynch and then kill Carrot. I admit this hypothesis is very speculative, but I think you can see my point.

Now, more importantly, I just re-read Spurg. Nothing about him is particularly suspicious. Why is that important? Well, I cannot imagine a vig killing Spurg, particularly given how many more worthwile candidates there were. It is possible that it was an OMGUS kill by Dr. B (since Spurg had his vote on Dr. B), but I don't think even he would be so bad as to do that, particularly since he wasn't voting for Spurg.

Thus, since I am sure a vig would not kill Carrot and find no reason for a vig to kill Spurg I can draw but one conclusion:
People we have a SK.

[vollkan]

Unvote Town lynch and 2 town NKs loses this for us.

It is not a "loss" as such. Well, we have 9 alive.

Therefore, our likely town : mafia : SK ratios are:
6:2:1 or 5:3:1

A mislynch today leaves us opening on D3 with:
(A) 3:2:1 or (B) 2:3:1 (in worst-case scenarios)

For (A), a mislynch would, in worst-case, cause a ratio of 0:2:1 (ie. mafia wins). We would need to vote for a scum and be joined by the SK to gain a majority of 4 out of 6 so that we could lynch 1 scum, which could have D4 opening with 3:1:0 (best), 2:1:1, 2:2:0 (mafia wins) or 0:2:1 (worst, mafia wins).

Lynching the SK on D3 would be useless since it would just mean D4 opens at 2:2, ie. mafia wins.

For (B), we don't even need a mislynch to be wiped out by D4, which would give scum the game. If we lynch the SK, scum win. If we lynch scum, then it could go to 2:1:0 (best), 1:2:0 (maf wins), 1:1:1 (we lose unless maf and SK NK each other) 0:2:1 (maf wins).

As such, whilst a mislynch today will not cause us to lose instantly, it places in a very VERY bad spot. I am sure I have missed some possibilities in the above, but I think the picture is grim enough.

[vollkan]

Seriously though...Whats the thought? Hunt scum or hunt SK? The whole town needs to go the same way on this, or we lose our "majority" part of it.

Well, to be honest, I don't think we have much of a "choice". All we can do is go after scumminess. It isn't as if we can say "Right, let's find the SK" or "Right, let's find mafia and not the SK".

Taking the 6:2:1 scenario.
If we lynch the SK today, then D3 opens at 5:2. We get one mislynch before we are in lylo.

If we lynch the scum today, D3 opens at 6:0:0 (win!), 5:1:0, 5:0:1 or 4:1:1 (wcs)
If the wcs were to arise:
If we mislynch, the possible D4s are 3:0:0 (awesome), 2:1:0 (LYLO), 2:0:1 (LYLO) or 1:1:1 (yuck).
Lynch of scum will mean D4 is 3:0:1 (LYLO)
Lynch of SK will mean D4 is 3:1:0 (LYLO)

Therefore, there does not appear to be much of an advantage either way.

Taking the 5:3:1 scenario,
If we lynch the SK today, then D3 opens at 4:3. LYLO.
If we lynch the scum today, then D3 opens at 3:2:1 in wcs. This is outcome (A) in my previous post. It can go any number of ways.
If we mislynch today, then D3 opens at 2:3:1 in wcs. Outcome (B) from above.

[vollkan]

NB:- in the above post "wcs" means "worst-case scenario"

[vollkan]

I propose hunt scum. It won't be as hard because if there isn't an RB then i know 1 member of the mafia. I also don't really know how to hunt an SK. Guys, i'm your tracker. I tracked originality during the night and my result was that he targeted CarrotCake. CarrotCake died during the night so it meant that he either tried to RB her or he targeted her for his NK. However, the possibility of him being scum outweighs the chance of him being an RB. The only reason i didn't say this staright away is because i thought i may be able to put a case against him and try to get him
lynched without giving away my identity. But i have now decided agianst it because it may be to difficult and no one is very suspicious of him. Only i am. And if you guys don't believe then go ahead and lynch me. I dare you. if you do then you have lost a valuable pro-town role. So is does anyone know if there is an RB or not? It would help.

Unvote

You have claimed at just two votes?

AlyG, there is one glaring problem with this. You say that you "know" Orig is mafia if there isn't an RB. However, Orig could well also be a SK or a pro-town power role (ie. cop or a failiing doctor).

As such, it doesn't make any sense at all that you would say you were going to try and build a normal case because you don't know Orig's role.

Furthermore, you opened this day with an FoS on Blackstrike when, if your story is true, the logical thing would have been to find something on Orig.

I am more than a little suspicious of your claim, but I cannot refute it so, thus, I have unvoted.

Now, as it stands this therefore means that Orig must be non-vanilla. Hence, if he is pro-town, he must be a power role and will in all likelihood now be NKed. In other words, the mafia and SK now know that Orig is either a power-role townie or a member of the other non-town faction.

I will think about this more, but it looks like one possible way to resolve this is to get a role-claim for Orig.

[vollkan]

Good thing that you believe me. Although now i'm pretty much definetely going to be NK'ed. Well now there is a chance of originality being a:

a) Doctor (Maybe)
b) RoleBlocker (Highly Unlikely)
c) Mafia (Biggest chance)

I'm very sure he is Mafia because of his past actions and of course his infamous first post. Which makes it seem all more likely he is scum. Thoughts guys?

Well, he could also be cop, watcher, basically anything non-killing. Actually, he could be a killing role with one of Spurg or Carrot being targeted twice (though there appears to only be single MOs). Basically, all you have proven (if your claim is real) is that Orig is not vanilla.

I don't believe you; I smell BS but I can't argue against it yet so I have to unvote. It isn't like tracker is a very common role so it is actually a fairly safe claim for scum (I notice that Streeflo has a scummie nomination for a tracker claim as scum in Mini 455).

I suspect Orig; I placed a HoS on him in my first post here. BUT, my suspicion of AlyG is greater. I am waiting for a roleclaim from Orig before anything, unless someone can prove that a claim from Orig would be unhelpful.

[vollkan]

NB:- in my post above, BS means "bullshit" not "Blackstrike"

[vollkan]

Your analysis of AlyG is correct; I just kind of summaried that all when I called it bullshit.

However, I still would recommend not voting at this stage since he is still technically a claimed power role.

I can't prove it, but I'll be Orig fakeclaims.

That's my fear also. Specifically, that AlyG is scum with Orig and that Orig will claim RB.

That fits with the fact that AlyG has ALREADY asked people to claim RB (blatant role-fishing). If he was sincere about catching a scum Orig, AlyG would NOT be asking people to claim, since that prevents catching Orig by counter-claim. In other words, this really does look like AlyG is trying to set up a safe claim of RB for Orig.

I could find examples if you want, but basically AlyG has done nothing against originality today. I see this as one thing right now: a bus brought in to get the heat onto originality and if a lynch occurs "clear" AlyG.

This is also a possibility, but I think the evidence points more to what I suggest above.

I am

this close

to re-voting AlyG. There is just SO MUCH that is wrong with his claim, but I feel as a matter of principle that I cannot vote a claimed power role.

[vollkan]

If AlyG comes up town/scum what does that mean for orig?

Well, I think Orig should roleclaim before anything happens.

If AlyG is town (I assume you mean "tracker", since I cannot see a town AlyG lying about this): We can safely assume that Orig is not vanilla and will have to deal with whatever claim he has made.

If AlyG is scum: Depends...On one hand this can be seen as AlyG trying to set up a town-Orig lynch (though I think that a 1 for 1 trade is a pretty ineffective scum tactic). So, therefore, it would make more "sense" to me as a bussing tactic.

If Orig comes up town/scum what does that mean for AlyG?

If Orig is scum: Doesn't say anything conclusive about AlyG.
If Orig is vanilla town: Proves AlyG is lying. I would then pass a motion to lynch AlyG.
If Orig is power-role town: Makes AlyG's claim look genuine.

On another note, if AlyG is being genuine here, then what he has done is completely unhelpful. AlyG has, evidently, known the possibility of Orig being pro-town and yet nonetheless chose to reveal his role with no reason (he only had two votes).

Thus, a tracker-AlyG has chosen to act in a way which outs one power role and potentially outs another. Actually, since AlyG has already asked any RB to claim, this potentially risks a total of 3 outings: ALyG, RB and Orig. I call this sort of thing, "anti-town".

Also, dybeck gets a

FoS

from me for his quickness to vote Orig.

[vollkan]

Yuck.

AlyG: Why did you wait to out originality and what prompted you to claim?
Why did you not either claim immediately or at least push for an originality lynch?
Why did you take such a defensive stance in your claiming post?

originality: Why would you kill anyone after a D1 with little to no usable information?
Is there any other reason we should believe you are a vig and not an SK or simple mafia?

My thing is, the quietest ones are the most suspicious. He was the quietest one by a lot.

I claimed carrotcake's death must have scared a scum to get suspicion off me. It was damn obvious carrotcake didn't scare anyone. I didn't find Oman suspicious. He wasn't. He seems pretty town to me. As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

Hang on....why would suspicion fall on YOU for Carrot's death? This makes no sense at all.
Carrot was about more helpful than everybody else. Fine, he lurked early, but his later stuff was pure brilliance. I don't buy this at all.

Our possible scenarios as I see them are as follows:
1) AlyG = Tracker; Orig = Vig: To me, the massive inconsistencies in their behaviours (which we have all noted) makes this seem unlikely.
2) AlyG = Tracker; Orig = Scum (Maf/SK): Very possible. There were only 2 kills yerstday so maybe Orig figured he would have to claim something. Doc, Cop or RB could risk a counter so vig possibly seemed safe, seeing as AlyG, the scummiest person, was not NKed. By that, I mean that vig probably seemed a safe claim to scum-Orig because AlyG, who was such obvious scum, was not NKed. If there was a vig, the vig would likely have targeted AlyG.
3) AlyG = Scum; Orig = Vig: I cannot see scum taking this particular gambit. It would be suicide to claim tracker and then randomly call someone out.
4) AlyG = Mafia; Orig = Mafia: I want this to be true. It would make so much sense given their behaviour, but it is impossible to substantiate without a counter-claim.

Also, Dybeck's willingness to follow AlyG is very smelly (along with the SK-shaft.ed stuff from just before).

Basically, we are in a real mess here. We have two deeply-flawed power role claims and I find neither believable. But, they have claimed nonetheless.

I see us having 3 options:
1) Lynch AlyG: If AlyG is a tracker, then we know Orig is non-vanilla. If AlyG is mafia, then we can reasonably infer Orig is also.
2) Lynch Orig: If Orig is scum, then we learn that AlyG is either scum or tracker. If Orig is vig, then we learn that AlyG is probably tracker.
3) Look elsewhere. Dybeck seems a good starting point.

I don't think we should lynch Orig. Here's why:
If Orig is vig, there is probably no SK (the MOs on Carrot/Spurg were single).
If Orig is scum, then we can reasonably infer we have no vig (no counters). Therefore, Orig will very likely be NKed by the other scum faction. (** see "A" below)

**A - For this reason, I think it very likely that scum may be pushing Orig's lynch (ie. Dybeck). They know he is either vig or their enemy faction.

In other words, a scum Orig will be dead by tomorrow morning anyway. So, why potentially waste our lynch killing our vig when if he is lying he will be NKed?

As such, I strike out option 2 of the above. We are left with:
1) Lynch AlyG.
3) Go somewhere else.

I favour 3). As such,

Vote: Dybeck

[vollkan]

You really find originality's claim remotely plausible?

Are you kidding? That's mindblowing! You really think that a pro-town vig could possibly have found carrotcake the scummiest player yesterday?

And 'strangulation' - does this sound like the hallmark of the vig?

You backed originality into a corner, and managed to actually get pretty decent proof on him with a VERY POOR claim. Please don't fail to capitalize on it now!

It is 'plausible'. Give me one reason why Orig cannot be the vig. He is scummy, yes, but it is still plausible and it would be wrong of us to push a lynch on him.

That said, the fact that he killed Carrot is more than a little troubling and supports the contention that he is scum; nonetheless, it doesn't prove he is scum.

Also, you are ignoring what I just proved:
If Orig is scum, it means we have a SK and a mafia group and, therefore, it is very likely Orig will be NKed by the rival faction.

Oh and by the way, I have found very significant contradiction which may be of interest to you all:

2)a) the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and

my gut says he's not scum.

That's it.

Now,

Originality visited somebody. Now they're dead.

vote: originality

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.

Dybeck did not mention Originality in any post at all since then. Isn't it interesting how quickly his views can invert just because he acquires evidence that Orig is either scum or a power role?

Best of all, Dybeck actually rejected the case on Originality and, hence, it is going to be mighty difficult for him to argue that he got a different perception from a reread.

My vote stands.

[vollkan]

Now for the pièce de résistance...

If today's lynchee is the SK, we know for near-certainty that Orig is mafia. Reason is blindingly simple:
There were 2 kills last night. If there is an SK, that means either:
1) Mafia didn't kill (ridiculously unlikely)
2) Orig is mafia (far more likely)

Now, if that happens, we can then prove overnight whether AlyG is scum with Orig.
How you ask?
Easy.

We get a targeting power role to claim. Then we order AlyG to track that power role; this allows us to test the following day whether or not AlyG can tell us who that person targeted. If AlyG fails this little test, we know he is scum and we have them both caught.

My feeling at the moment is that Dybeck is our SK and that AlyG is scum with Orig.

[vollkan]

NB:- This plan of mine requires the power role to claim in twilight phase. Basically, if we just set it as a rule that if SK is lynched then power role claims in twilight, things should be fine.

[vollkan]

You're right; let me think about this because I know there is some way we can pull this to make it work. If we work at this we can resolve it.

Oman, my first plan was actually really stupid because I forgot that we don't learn the role until AFTER twilight. Hence, my sequence was: Sk lynch --> Role revealed --> Twilight / power role claims --> etc. Completely idiotic and wrong.

Revised plan:
If there is a SK we KNOW that Orig is mafia (I proved this in my previous post).

Therefore, we lynch Orig D3. By default.

The issue, then, is proving AlyG's claim. The other problem I overlooked is that the scumgroup could have 3 members. If that were the case, my plan fails miserably.

The claim thing is useless because if the scum kill the power role, we have no way of verifying AlyG.

[vollkan]

Okay, currently it is either:

A - 6:3,
B - 7:2
C - 6:2:1
D - 5:3:1.

A and B can only be true if Orig is vig. C and D can only be true if Orig is scum.

Lynching the SK today therefore brings it to:
6:2 or 5:3

After 1 NK, D3 opens at:
5:2 or 4:3 (LYLO)

Lynching scum-Orig:
5:1 or 4:2 (LYLO)

After 1 NK, D4 opens at:
4:1 or 3:2 (LYLO)

As we can see, our situation is VERY grim if there is a mafia trio. It means inescapable LYLO for us. Things are much better if it is a duo.

I cannot yet think of a way to dis/prove AlyG.

[vollkan]

I'd hate to say it, but mini normals usually contain 3 mafia and an SK/vig. Meaning I bet its A or D and we're pretty much at lylo tomorrow.

In Mini 467 ( a game I was in), there were 2 mafia, SK and no vig. I don't know whether 3 mafia and 1 SK is more likely, but 2 is a possiblity nonetheless.

Now...I think the best course of action would be to lynch originality based on this theory. Orig is another kill, another kill puts us in LyLo even if we hit scum today (originality is not known for his excellent vig choices). If he's SK it even worse. Based on orig's alignment either dybeck or AlyG (I'd say town heavily implicates Dybeck and scum heavily implicates AlyG).

Woah hang on...lthink about this for one second.

Orig targeted Carrot, right. Why would the SK go for Carrot? Carrot was attacking somebody else. There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot. As such, I think it more likely that Orig is mafia than SK. If that is the case, then killing mafia-Orig will take it to
6:1:1 or 5:2:1
That means two NKs still. Which means D3 is:

6:0:0 (win!), 5:1:0, 5:0:1 or 4:1:1 (wcs)
If the wcs were to arise:
If we mislynch, the possible D4s are 3:0:0 (awesome), 2:1:0 (LYLO), 2:0:1 (LYLO) or 1:1:1 (yuck).
Lynch of scum will mean D4 is 3:0:1 (LYLO)
Lynch of SK will mean D4 is 3:1:0 (LYLO)

or, for the 5:2:1
5:1:0 (best), 4:2:0 (LYLO), 4:1:1 (wcs above) or 3:2:1
If the 3:2:1 arose:

a mislynch would, in worst-case, cause a ratio of 0:2:1 (ie. mafia wins). We would need to vote for a scum and be joined by the SK to gain a majority of 4 out of 6 so that we could lynch 1 scum, which could have D4 opening with 3:1:0 (best), 2:1:1, 2:2:0 (mafia wins) or 0:2:1 (worst, mafia wins).

All in all, since Orig is unlikely the SK, we know the paths that can arise if he is mafia.

If Orig is the vig, then we likely have 6:3.
That means that a mislynch (ie. lynching vig-Orig) today puts us in LYLO tomorrow.

[vollkan]

Okay, if we lynch Orig and he is the vig, then our D3 is:
4:3 LYLO.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is SK, then our wcs D3 is:
4:3 LYLO. Of course, if someone else is the SK, then we know Orig is scum, which takes us to 4:2 LYLO. If we get it right again, we move to 4:1 NOT LYLO.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is mafia then our wcs D3 is:
3:2:1 See my previous post for the yucky consequences of this. Basically a scum win most likely.

In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker.

Also: SK would have target Carrotcake as carrotcake would not have implemented them at all, that is, there was no danger due to the kill. Mafia look for dangerous townies cause they can afford to lose a member due to NK link, the SK can't. Also, was carrotcake really scummy enough for you to say it was right to vig him.

I don't understand you here. Are you saying that SK-Orig would kill Carrot?

[vollkan]

And if thats his choice of targets, can we afford to give him another kill?

If we lynch vig-Orig, D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch SK-Orig D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch maf-Orig D3 opens at wcs 3:2:1. (yuck)

If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (yuck)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is maf, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (basically scum win)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:3 LOSS (if Orig screws up again). If Orig doesn't shoot: 4:3 LYLO. If Orig succeeds: 4:2 LYLO.

If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 3:2:1 (yuck)
If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:2 LYLO (with mis-vig). If no-vig shot then 4:2 LYLO. If successful vig-shot then 3:1 LYLO.
If we lynch non-Orig SK, meaning Orig is maf D3 wcs is: 4:3 LYLO

Good grief...It looks like there are no advantages ANYWHERE without relying on help from maf or SK.

[vollkan]

Maybe AlyG should track him Tonight?

Yes.

As such,

Vote: Originality

If he is scum, then we are in lylo or 3:2:1. If he is vig we are in LYLO.

[vollkan]

Edits:- That yes was to AlyG tracking dybeck
AND that should be 3:2:1 in wcs. It could be better than 3:2:1, but we can't bank on that.

[vollkan]

And... I forgot to unvote

Unvote, Vote: Originality

[vollkan]

IF HE'S SK WE'RE IN F'R:THREE LYLOU

That's what I meant by "lylo". It will be 4:3 in wcs (5:2 in bcs).

[vollkan]

5:2 is not LYLO...A mislynch gives 3:2, which is LYLO.

[vollkan]

Not what I was thinking. bcs is where our current setup is 6:2:1 (ie. 2 maf as opposed to 3)

[vollkan]

Oh right, you mean best case and worst case in terms of setup not in terms of night actions. The point is still valid (actually perhaps more with your way as it isn't variable based on player actions).

Yeah; in my previous posts where I list possible starts I accomodate for varying night actions, but my bcs and wcs are based on set up, not night-actions.

[vollkan]

Unvote

What the hell am I thinking?

If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things.

[vollkan]

I'm not certain on this yet. I'm thinking letting orig live and having the crossfire sort it out is our best bet, but it's also a gamble, and I don't want to force the town to take a gamble that I am OK with.

One thing I do want to posit to everyone is please don't throw your votes around. We may be in a 5:3:1 situation where mafia can endgame with a mislynch. A quicklynch wouldn't be a poor place in this scenario.

I agree entirely.

I think letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain. Vollkan's done the math, read up on that.

It's a gambit, no doubt about that. Let's not forget, though, that Orig could easily have claimed weak doctor or something if he was the SK/mafia and did not want to expose himself to NK risk. The fact that has has claimed vig, a role likely to get NKed, points to him being genuine.

As such, I think our situation is 6:3 more likely than one of 6:2:1 or 5:3:1. I really don't think we should be killing Orig today.

Tracker's are a bit more rare so I believe AlyG's claim, only way he is lying is if him and orig are scum partners. But there is absolutely NO need for them to run such a gambit. The scum were sitting pretty after the first round of death's. Also the odds of either of them being powerroles went up considerably when the first three out of the game came up vanilla townie's.

This is something I thought of and that played a part in my unvote.

Basically, all in all, I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If this is a SK-game, then there is a good chance of cross-fire. If it is not a SK-game, lynching Orig would be stupid and unproductive.

Unvote

.

The question is, therefore, we we go now. If we aren't lynching Orig, I think that means it would be nonsensical to lynch AlyG (I don't believe there is a scum tracker) Oh, and shaft.ed seems very pro-town to me; he isn't even under consideration as a lynchee by me at this stage.

Therefore, my pool of possible scum is:
Elias_the_thief
Oman
Dr. Blackstrike
Lucienne
dybeck

Obviously, the rest of you have to include me on your list and the innocent among you can exclude yourselves.

I look at that list and realise that 3/5 of those people are scum, if everything holds true about AlyG and Orig.

Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town, but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is. I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff.

[vollkan]

I really don't want you to be guided in any way. The more the mafia know what's going on the more they can prepare for it. It's not out of the question that they have a roleblocker either. Just do what you think is best.

Agreed. Besides, the way things are going a Dybeck lynch is not completely unlikely.

The best advice I can give you is: Think of who Originality would choose and then do the complete opposite.

And I don't want Lucienne replaced.

[vollkan]

Dybeck, he has already explained why:

As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

It basically looks like a OMGUS kill.

[vollkan]

Which is sooooo pro-town!!

I'm not going to follow you on this one vollkan, I think orig is an SK.

Okay, let's think. There are a few reasons supporting him being SK:
1) The anti-townness of his kill
2) The strangling thing
3) The fact that he probably reasoned vig was a safe claim since nobody had killed AlyG during the night.

There is a good argument for Orig being the SK, BUT if he is the vig, we are really hurting ourselves by lynching him.

[vollkan]

Add:

However, there is one fact which kind of defeats the whole SK theory: Orig claimed VIG.

If Orig is SK, why the hell would he claim the one pro-town role which we can be almost certain that the mafia will prioritise over all others.

I know that if I were a SK in Orig's position, I would have claimed weak doc or RB or something, NOT Vig.

Hence, my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.

[vollkan]

As mafia I do not prioritise vig, they often kill townies N1-2-3.

Regardless:

If he claimed cop he'd likely get counterclaimed
If he claimed doc we'd know he's lying
If he claimed RB he'd likely be counterclaimed.

Plus if he was the SK he would have known vig was 100% guarenteed safe claim(who puts and SK a vig AND a scumgroup in a game)

I know for a fact that if I was mafia and had a confirmed SK/vig they would be my first priority. I don't know how you can suggest that a vig/SK would not be the scum's main target. Furthermore, even if they WEREN'T the number one priority (I think a SK would be), by identifying himself the SK has set himself up to get NKed at the opportune moment.

Yes, cop and doc would likely get countered; but not if he claimed weak doc. Furthermore, RB is probably quite significantly safer. Anyway, there are a myriad of other less common roles he could claim.

And yes, vig is a safe claim; that's true, but you entirely ignore the fact that it is also a near-guaranteed NK if not immediately then at the opportune moment.

Now, next on the agenda.

Unvote, Vote: Oman. FoS: Dybeck

Reason: Oman is now arguing firmly, and very poorly, that Orig is the SK. The fact that he is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig.

I had voted Dybeck for this same reason. Earlier on Oman was far more balanced, but this latest stuff by him is moving possible even beyond Dybeck.

[vollkan]

I can count the number of mini normals with a weak doc on one hand I bet.

Maybe so, but it would still be safer in terms of "winning the game" than claiming vig.

LOL! Wait, Vollkan was voting for originality, and even posted points on why he was an SK and not a vig and now you want to let him live?

Oho; now you are telling lies about what I said. Bad move Oman.

Let's see:

My feeling at the moment is that Dybeck is our SK and that AlyG is scum with Orig.

Orig targeted Carrot, right. Why would the SK go for Carrot? Carrot was attacking somebody else. There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot. As such, I think it

more likely that Orig is mafia than SK.

....[numbers galore]

If Orig is the vig, then we likely have 6:3.
That means that a mislynch (ie. lynching vig-Orig) today puts us in LYLO tomorrow.

My stupid voting post was:

As such, Vote: Originality If he is scum, then we are in lylo or 3:2:1. If he is vig we are in LYLO.

Which I then fixed with:

Unvote What the hell am I thinking?

If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things.

So, yes, I was voting for Orig...for 3 hours. And, I never once argued he was most likely a SK. It was always a possibility.

[vollkan]

Crossed with Dybeck.

For a while I thought vollkan actually believed what he's been saying.

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum, and the fact is that Vollkan is defending him in the face of the fact orig has:

1) been fingered by a power-role who had absolutely no need to claim otherwise
2) made a claim that just isn't plausible.
3) made slips yesterday.

1) How does this prove Orig is scum? This proves Orig is vig just as much as it proves he is SK/Mafia.
2) It is plausible. In fact, the very fact he has claimed it in light of its inevitable consequences makes me think it to be very plausible.
3) Not enough to prove he is scum, particularly in light of his claim.

just makes me believe that orig is mafia, and vollkan is his scummate. Vollkan is clutching at straws trying to prove something that's highly unlikely, using highly unlikely scenarios.

FOS: Vollkan, FOS: Anyone who doesn't take any notice when a protown power-role outs himself because he's found a scum

Honestly guys, lynches do not get any easier than this. You need to think.

Clutching at straws? I think my case for Orig being vig is a hell of a lot more convincing than your blind support for a lynch or Oman's feeble arguments.

What are you FoSing people for? I took notice of AlyG's claim; I have analysed it to no end. I have just come to the conclusion that Orig is very likely not a SK.

I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia.

For this, I turn to shaft.ed:

If Orig is Mafia:

[/u]

6:2:1

: A SK must exist to account for second NK. Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead. Lynching someone else would give us information to work from tommorow. If SK kills orig and he is scum we are left with 4:1:1 in wcs (75%), 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK(13%), 5:0:1 if we lynch the other scum (13%). If SK kills town and we don't lynch orig we are left with 3:2:1 in wcs (pretty much over, 75%), or 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (13%) and again 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK (13%). This set-up is very dependent on SK actions. Totals for 6:2:1 63% town advantage, 38% likely town loss (3:2:1)

5:3:1

: If the SK kills orig at night we are left with 3:2:1 in worst case scenario(63%), 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (25%), and 4:3:0 (LYLO) if we hit the SK (13%). If the SK kills town and we don't go for orig we're at 2:3:1 in wcs (63%), 3:2:1 if we hit scum (25%) and again 4:3:0 if we hit the SK (13%). Totals for 5:3:1 13% town advantage, 13% LYLO, 44% likely town loss (3:2:1), 32% auto-loss (2:3:1)

[vollkan]

I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia.

I had another thought.

If Orig is mafia, then he knows there is a SK. Therefore, why would he claim vig when he could claim a safer pro-town role.

For argument's sake, let's use RB.
If Orig claims RB, we don't lynch him and he is not an immediate threat to the SK. Therefore, much safer.
Weak doc would be even safer still, along with many others.

It just doesn't make sense for scum-Orig to claim vig when that claim is the one which has the greatest chance of getting him killed.

This appears to be precisely what shaft.ed concluded when he said:

Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead.

[vollkan]

In that case, I return from whence I came:

Unvote, Vote: Dybeck

.

His posts continue to sit as badly with me as they did when I voted with him. I have already addressed his latest post.

[vollkan]

And: If you guys want me to, I could just not kill someone tonight (but only if we misslynch, otherwise there's no reason for me not to)

No; you should kill...just be careful.

We could give you instructions depending on the outcome today, but there are obvious problems in telegraphing our plans (because if you aren't a threat to the scum they won't take you out).

We need you to be as uncertain as possible to them. Therefore, you should kill.

[vollkan]

Finally, we still only have 2-3 people contributing to the discussion. I thought we were going to be keeping the voting down to prevent a possibly quicklynch. FoS vollkan for the votes.

It's five to lynch, though. If the wagon gets any higher without good reason I will unvote, but for now I think it is safe.

Also on the matter of vig killing, I'd prefer a no kill if you are the vig.
If we hit scum we'll be at 5:2 tommorow. A mis-kill puts us at 4:2 (LyLo)
If we hit town we'll be at 4:3 tommorow (LyLo). A mis-kill puts us at 3:3 (loss).
I'd also be more inclined to believe you're not a SK if you take a night off.

You're right. Don't kill tonight Orig.

[vollkan]

That said I'm not totally comfortable with a dybeck lynch at this point. While I agree heartily with vollkan, I'm a little bit worried of scum buddying up to me. I am also a bit uneasy with Oman's tendency to change his mind so easily as of late. So for reasons I've mentioned earlier I'd really like dybeck to not be at L-2 right now. At least let's hear from Dr. BS and Elias.

I'm willing to give Oman a certain amount of leeway for the mind-changing. I've made so many errors in my attempts to try and work out the best course of action that I can understand a certain amount of alteration from him. This is a confusing game. Of course, his insistence on lynching Orig did strike me as a bit too definite and I didn't like it.

[quote-"AlyG"]
Well at least your here. And where's Blackstrike?! We need him here! and we need to know what he did during the night!
[/quote]

Something here rubs me the wrong way. I think it may be the fact that AlyG is trying to prod other people into talking when he has had pretty much no input since the claim. Particularly given that AlyG/Orig could be a possible mafia pairing, I don't like the fact that this post suggests he is "here" but lurking.

I know that if I was a tracker and I had tracked someone on a NK victim, I would be posting a lot about it (though I post a lot anyway).

Something else,

AlyG- You are fucking retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim

us two

for no real reason? Your personal grudge against me is affecting your view of things. Why am I saying this? IM THE FUCKING VIG.

Why carrotcake? I got a bad vibe from him, It was mostly a gut feeling.

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed us up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me.

Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night.

Dammit AlyG.

Orig refers to him and AlyG as an "us" and then expresses real regret about how the "

strategy

" (VERY interesting word choice) exposes either of them to a lynching. If Orig is vig, then he has good reason to consider AlyG protown, but I don't get why he immediately fears the possibility of them BOTH being lynched.

And also:

It won't be as hard because if there isn't an RB then i know 1 member of the

mafia.

For some reason, the possibility of Orig being SK is not mentioned.

This is not conclusive by any stretch, but I don't like it at all.

[vollkan]

I may not have had much input. but i've answered whats been asked of me and i'm regulary visiting. blackstrike on the other hand hasn't posted the whole of this day and i'm curious of his actions during the night. And Elias may have been lurking because he never explained his long absence in his post and i'm sort of unsure of what to think of him.

You've posted when you yourself have been placed under possible threat; you have not made any proactive contribution, other than the claim which could well be a complete fabrication and which was, in itself, at a point in time where I was being unswervingly hard on you.

Why are you uniquely curious about BS's night actions and how on earth do you propose to determine them? I mean, asking "So, Doctor BS, did you kill anyone yesterday?" is pretty futile. And if this about a power role possibility, then that is a cause for suspicion against you.

Anyway, I have some more questions for you:
1) What do you think about Carrot's case against you?
2) What do you think of Orig?
3) What do you think of Dybeck?
4) What do you think is the best course of action today?

Strategy? This strategy? the claim was a cause of a strategy i didn't go through with lol.

Please

rephrase

this. I don't know what you mean.

And vollkan, he said that their was a possibility of 1 getting NK'ed and the other getting getting lynched.

They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night.

Yes, but the point is that Orig was specifically fearful of the two of you perishing. His concern was about you two, not about the overall game situation. If you are mafia with Orig, then there is a SK who would pose Orig's NK threat. Rather obtuse of you to ignore this.

And my claim had lots of reason behind it.

List them.

Yeah i missed that possibility, i realised my mistake and cleared it up by saying there is a possibility of him being either a Doctor, (Which was stupid and impossible. Just pretend i never said that.) Roleblocker, Mafia or Serial Killer. Pretty much that he was definetely confirmed as a power-role.

And yet, you did not mention that your subsequent post was a clarification, as you are now alleging.

[vollkan]

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed us up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me. Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night. Dammit AlyG.

I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear what I was trying to say, which was: The strategy I talk about is us finding out mafia by means of seeing who voted for me, since I know me to be town. Followed by a realization that it is not a good strategy.

The second part of that post refers to how the mafia would try to push for a lynch of one of us two (AlyG or me), since we are the claimed powerroles. It would be great for them if one of us is lynched, so they can get rid of 2 powerroles in one night.

Nice to see you start posting again when someone turns their eyes on you.

That wasn't the way it read to me, but I can't argue on this.

Also, you ignored:

Something else,
[quote="Orig"

AlyG- You are fucking retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim us two for no real reason? Your personal grudge against me is affecting your view of things. Why am I saying this? IM THE FUCKING VIG.

Why carrotcake? I got a bad vibe from him, It was mostly a gut feeling.

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed us up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me. Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of us now and NK the other at night. Dammit AlyG.

Orig refers to him and AlyG as an "us"

and then expresses real regret about how the " strategy " (VERY interesting word choice) exposes either of them to a lynching. If Orig is vig, then he has good reason to consider AlyG protown, but I don't get why he immediately fears the possibility of them BOTH being lynched. [/quote]

Orig explicitly refers to "claiming us two". The emphasis is on the two of them. I mean, if I was in Orig's position I would say something more like "Why claim and reveal people so soon?", but Orig focuses on the two of them.

I really don't know what we should do here. AlyG and Orig were scummy yesterday, they are partner-ish today AND they are claimed power roles. It is the most frustrating situation I think I have ever encountered here.

I think it is exacerbated by the fact that the only other player who really pings my scumdar is Dybeck, which leads me to think we have a Aly/Orig mafia and Dybeck SK, but I can't prove this and nor would it be responsible for me to act on this view.

One possibility would be to lynch AlyG.
If AlyG comes up mafia, we pretty much know that Orig is mafia also. If that happens, we know we have a SK and I would be willing to bank very strongly on it being Dybeck.

If AlyG is mafia

D2 = 6:2:1 or 5:3:1
L-mafAlyG = 6:1:1 5:2:1
wcs-2T-NK = 4:1:1 3:2:1
L-mafOrig = 4:0:1
T-NK = 3:0:1 (LYLO)

If AlyG is tracker

D2 = 6:3 or 6:2:1 or 5:3:1
L-trackAlyG = 5:3 (LYLO) or 5:2:1 or 4:3:1
wcs-NKs = 4:3 (LYLO) or 3:2:1 or 2:3:1

I have not settled on this plan and I still favour lynching Dybeck today. But I think this should discussed.

[vollkan]

Vollkan, that does not make much sense.

I did not say it was a good strategy. I wanted it to be a springboard for ideas.

If AlyG is lynched today and turns out tracker then you guys still aren't guaranteed on me.

Exactly; that's the main problem I see with lynching AlyG. Though, if she is mafia we can be certain of you.

Isn't he the guy who wanted to get me lynched really bad on day one? Like, most of everyone?

The page 8 and 9 suspicion of you died very quickly. By the end of it, only AlyG had his vote on you. That makes for easy distancing.

[quote"Orig"]
If this was some clever scum ploy AlyG would certainly have backed down when I was at most danger of being lynched.
[/quote]

Which was when?

And why should he claim tracker and put the blame on me when there was no current suspicion on me this day?

His own lynch was impending and you were also a likely suspect. It isn't too far-fetched that he might do something like this. Plus, if there is a personal grudge between you two....

AlyG- You are fucking retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim

us (1)

two for no real reason? Your personal grudge against me is affecting your view of things. Why am I saying this? IM THE FUCKING VIG.

Why carrotcake? I got a bad vibe from him, It was mostly a gut feeling.

The best we can do now, that AlyG screwed

us (2)

up, is to see the ones who wanted to lynch him I guess. Or me. Damn, this strategy is terrible. They could be wanting to lynch one of

us (3)

now and NK the other at night. Dammit AlyG.

1- Pretty symple here, I used "us" to mean us two who got claimed.

2- Us here meaning the town. I guess it could also mean me and him, because we are now a mafia target.

3- Us here means me or AlyG.

Please tell me which one makes you suspicious and be specific why.

1) Simple. Your problem was not that he claimed; your problem was that he claimed

you two

. Were it me, I would have said: "Why would you claim like this and risk outing a power role". Instead, you focus on the specific identities.
2) Okay. I cannot argue on this one.
3) Your fear is that one of you or AlyG will be lynched/NKed. Could be you just fearing loss of power roles, but I think 1) influenced me to see it as you and ALyG specific.

Anyway, Orig I have some questions for you, same as I did with Aly (which he has not answered):
1) Who do you think is the mafia and SK?
2) What do you think of AlyG's play yesterday?
3) What do you think of Dybeck?

Thankyou in advance for your answers.

[vollkan]

1) There is no sk. I'm the vig, I killed carrotcake. First of all, I doubt a SK would not kill during night 1, and mafia plus a vig seems enough killing roles for one mini game, all that and one sk would be too much. The mafia? Dybek right now seems really really high up there.

Yes, that was partly a trick question that a newb mafia might have fallen for.

2) His play you mean the rolefishing for blackstrike? Yea, it sounds sort of fishy, but it also has at least some reason. If DBS has any useful info he should say so, but not unless its useful right now. And you gotta remember, AlyG is pretty much confirmed town for me. (He HAS to be a tracker if he found out I killed carrotcake, its too good of a guess for a mafia trick)

Why is it that both Aly and Orig seem so intent on getting information from BS?

[vollkan]

I am too Vollkan Smile I want to hear from Blackstrike if he has something to help us (if he doesn't a "no info" would suffice)

Yeah, I want to

hear

from him. But AlyG and Orig are basically acting like they want him to say "I am cop and last night I got innocent on X." Aside from the obvious fishing, their attitude seems a little too much like they expect him to say something earth-shaking.

Also, Orig, you do realise what happens if Dybeck or ANYBODY comes up SK?

[vollkan]

Unvote.

Let me be clear that my vote is still on Dybeck, but shaft.ed is right.

And Oman has recently been setting a little uneasy with me. His last post, suggesting an AlyG lynch instead of orig, is just logically flawed.

I raised the option of an AlyG lynch, as I said, to see what people though. By that, of course, I meant that I was interested to see who supported it. Again, shaft.ed, you have taken the pro-town option, whereas Oman has, again, supported something on a dodgy basis. I have done this also, which was why I raised the AlyG thing, to see the extent of what Oman would support.

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

[vollkan]

Brilliant post.

1) originality could have shot back at AlyG. AlyG's claim post was scummy as hell. This has been analyzed by three players (me vollkan and Oman). All of whom commented before originality. If scum, he could have simply lied and said "no way I didn't kill anybody last night" and pushed for an AlyG lynch. While this would have resulted in his very immenent death when AlyG's role was revealed he would have at least taken down a powerrole with him. Instead originality does the opposite. He owns up to the kill and states that he firmly believes AlyG to be town.

Note this goes against orig being mafia, but clearly leaves open the SK.

It only really goes against him being mafia not with AlyG. As odd as I think it would be for mafia to do what AlyG and Orig are doing, I can't rule it out.

A SK would never do this as he has only one life to live, this would draw way too much attention to himself from the mafia and the town.

I said this earlier. This point really hits hard that Orig is most likely not a SK.

The mafia are unlikely to claim vig as the SK will undoubtedly NK orig for this claim either tonight or the next at the latest.

Also a good point and one I haven't yet raised. I guess, though, that the mafia can risk it to a greater extent than the SK can, though I think it is overall more likely that the claim is genuine than that Orig is mafia.

[vollkan]

And a question: You are all assuming we have 3 mafia, is this the common way on a mini?

I have been in one game with a SK (Mini 467) and it was 2 mafia, 1 SK and 9 town. In all other games I have been in, it has been 3 mafia.

2 mafia is a real possibility if we have a SK. Otherwise, it is most likely 3.

If so we have 1/3 chance of lynching a right person tonight. Let's say we lynch a town, so if I decide to kill someone at night I will have a 3/8 chance of getting scum, which is almost 50%. If I not count people Im pretty sure to be town, such as AlyG, shaft.ed, Vollkan, and Oman, then I have 3/4 chance of hitting scum. Interesting odds, wouldn't you say, people?

However, if I do somehow fuck up and hit the one who is town, we end up with a 3/6 scum/town ratio counting the mafia's NK. This is a loss for us. So its a risky business here, but its a risk we might want to take.

Your math is slightly off. If we lynch town today, we have 8 people, yes. That makes the likely ratio 5:3. (that's town:mafia). If you mess up, it is likely 3:3 a loss (not 3/6). I think you were saying the same thing as me, but you expressed 3/6 as a scum:town ratio.

Anyway, something else interesting from this:
If town is lynched today then we have 5:3 (most likely and if you are vig). If you then cut out AlyG, Shafted, Oman (why are you sure of Oman??), myself and yourself (you didn't include yourself in your own list. You aren't scum, right?), you are left with 3 people -- all of whom by your logic are the mafia.

All of this is under the assumption we have 3 mafia, and

we lynch town tonight

. So let's say we lynch a mafia instead.

2/8 scum/town ratio at night. 25% chance for me of hitting scum. So if I not count AlyG, Oman, shaft.ed and vollkan as before, I'd have 2/4 chance of getting scum, 50%. It is a substantial risk also, but one with less drastic repercussions if I do wrong: If I get a townie in the night plus the mafia's kill then it would make a 2/6 scum/town ratio tomorrow. Depending on who is mafia NK'd, we might have a real good chance of hitting scum. Lets say the mafia kills me or alyg. If its me then I will be flipped vig and AlyG automatically will be town. This leads you fellas to a 2/5 situation, in which shaft.ed is almost certainly town, with oman and vollkan close behind. So take those 3 out and you guys will have a perfect 2 mafia choice to lynch. Not bad, eh?

Lynches happen in daytime...

If maf lynched, it likely becomes 6:2.
If you cut out AlyG, Shafted, Oman, myself and yourself that means there is one townie and 2 mafia for you to pick. If you misvig, however, that makes it 5:2. With the maf NK, that makes 4:2 LYLO!

Now, all of this rests on your assumption that Oman is pro-town. I don't doubt shaft.ed and I kind of have to accept you and AlyG for this to make sense, but Oman is actually suspicious and I would certainly not place him on my "confirmed townie list".

This leads to another question: If I target someone in night and the same person targets me, what happens?

You both die.

[vollkan]

Lynching a town tonight: 3/5 chance of me getting mafia at night. [Lets say I not count Oman and Vollkan, that would make a 100% chance of hitting scum.]

Lynching scum tonight: 2/5 chance of getting mafia. [Without Oman and Vollkan 2/3, which is still pretty good though not perfect.]

LYNCHES HAPPEN IN DAYTIME!! *esplodes*

If we lynch town today, 2/7 chance of me getting scum at night. Without Oman and Vollkan, 2/5. Rather risky, but still almost 50%.

No..
Assuming it is 6:3
If town is lynched than it is 5:3. Cutting out yourself, AlyG and shaft.ed for the vigging leaves it as 2:3. Your odds are 3/5 of getting scum.

However, if you phail (which seems likely given the calibre of your selection yesterday), then you will drop the overall game to 4:3. Then, when scum NK, it becomes 3:3 -->

A LOSS!

Don't get wrapped up in your probabilities because you are losing sight of the game situation. If town is lynched today, your vigging has a 2/5 chance of causing us to lose.

Lynching scum, 1/7 chance of scumkilling tonight. No Oman and Vollkan, 1/5. Terrible odds. Lets follow through with this particular train of thought and see the how the next day would bring us 1/6, assuming I don't kill. If I do kill, the odds say I will hit town which would be 1/5. Bad: A lot of townie deaths. Good: No lylo, we have more leisure. So next day, lets say we lynch another town, 1/4. I try to kill and hit a town, 1/3, plus the scum kill 1/2. Now its lylo. Ok, same situation but I don't kill. Town has another whole day till lylo. (all this assuming I'm still alive).

If scum lynched = 6:2
Therefore, at night you have a selection of 3:2.
It is more likely you will hit town, by pure probability.
If you fail, it becomes 5:2.
Then with scum NK it becomes 4:2

LYLO!

In short, your vigging is dangerous to us.

In the end, numbers sort of go out the window I guess, what matters most is good judgement on part of the town. Still these odds are useful, especially the one considering we have 3 mafia, so what do you guys think?

I think you are losing sight of the game.

[vollkan]

Under this new light from vollkan that we almost certainly have 3 mafia, you can disregard the bottom part of my last post. And here's what I personally think will (or at least should) happen today: we lynch dybeck. He is mafia. A third of the people at night will be mafia. Not counting AlyG and shaft.ed, half the people are mafia.

So are you guys up for the risk is this happens?

Read what I just posted. I am most definitely NOT up for this risk.

And: If I target someone, and someone else targets me, do I kill my target and then the other kills me or does he just kill me and I don't kill at all?

You both kill each other.

[vollkan]

I'd also like to get on this "Wasn't Elias in the Game?" Wagon

unvote vote elias

hi shafted. I am currently weighed down by multiple games and I am not fully caught up yet. I have a life outside of mafiascum and I'm signed up for too many games, and trying to stay in all of them. I think I will be completely caught up at the end of the week. I dont plan to start making any special effort based on your vote, so I guess its an ok time to tell you youre wasting it, until the weekend, at least until some of my near-LYLO games are concluded.

Why bother with this lurker wagon. He clearly is not going to budge.

[vollkan]

Apologies for my shitty maths, I am tired. I will go over this tomorrow.

Don't apologise for them. By saying what you

think

is the situation you allow me to correct you. If you didn't post your dodgy maths than you would go on thinking that way and could very well cause us to lose.

I think that under certain situations (if we hit town) then my vigkill would be pretty good. I think this subject should be discussed in twilight though.

No. If we lynch a town today then your vigkill has a 2/5 chance of causing us to lose. There is no way you should take that risk.

Even if you did hit mafia, D3 would open at 4:2, which is LYLO, same situation as if you don't vig (4:3). Obviously, a 4:3 LYLO is "worse" since it is inescapable LYLO (given that you will be NKed in all likelihood), but I am not willing to stake the game on it.

[vollkan]

Wow! Many, many thanks to Streeflo and Gemelli.

[vollkan]

I don't think AlyG is scum, really. I believe his claim.

Orig is a bit different. I'm relatively okay with his claim, I'm also seeing the possibility of him being an SK. However, if he is a vig this would be a terrible loss - he obviousy shouldn't be targetted. In short - I find it more likely that he would be a vig than an SK, but I'll be watching him.

Yes; there seems to be some agreement that he is very much more likely vig than SK and probably more likely vig than mafia (though he may well be mafia).

Interesting in 541 how Dybeck asks Elias for help - possible scum partnership?

I completely missed that!

Interesting observation. That's the sort of thing we really need to be hunting for if we are assuming AlyG and Orig are pro-town.

Also, can someone explain all the Maths? I'm getting confused.

We all were.

Basically, in terms of town:mafia:SK, the likely situations we are currently in are:
A 6:3:0 --> This is where Orig is vig
B 6:2:1 --> Orig is mafia and someone (my bet is on Dybeck) is SK
C 5:3:1 --> Orig is mafia and someone (my bet is on Dybeck) is SK

Obviously, if Orig is telling the truth, only option A is possible.

Assuming Orig is the vig and that Orig is NKed tonight:
If we lynch town today, it goes to 5:3.
The scum NK makes that 4:3 (LYLO). Hence, we don't want Orig to NK because that will put us at a risk of 3:3 (LOSS).

If we lynch scum today, it goes to 5:2.
The scum NK makes that 5:2. If Orig mis-vigs, he will put it to 4:2 (LYLO). Hence, it is most likely a good idea not to vig.

For options B and C above, the outcomes are much more chaotic (as you will have seen).

Most likely to vote for Oman at this point. I didn't like the way he responded badly to lotsof Vollkan's points, and some of his answers match those that benefit the Mafia.

Oman is, IMO, slightly less anti-town than Dybeck. Oman has, at least, withdrawn things and I can see him making a genuine blunder.

[vollkan]

1) Okay, thanks for that.
2) This seems to be the standard view
3) I agree
4) Agree with regards to consulting Elias and Gemelli. However, I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice.

[vollkan]

He's mafia/SK (I strongly suspect mafia), and if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town.

After his judgment yesterday, I am not trusting him with making kills. It's pretty damn ironic that you are suspicious of him and think he is scum because he killed a very pro-town player, but now you WANT him to kill.

Whoa there shaft.ed, I understand that it is a huge risk and no one wants me to do it, but does that mean I can't talk about it? I'm trying to show all the ways it can affect us. Trust me, I

won't do anything rash w

ithout discussing it first. And at least one person I am 100% sure is town, that being AlyG, for reasons known to all. And if you are scum, I deserve to lose to you, for you look townie as hell.I am willing to take the risk of accepting you as town. Vollkan and Oman are only feelings of mine, I know they are not guarantees, and I keep that in mind.

Not "anything rash"..."ANYTHING". You are not to kill tonight under any circumstances unless you receive the express permission from a majority of the rest of us.

Is that a fair assessment of the situation? I'm trying to come up with a good baseline for assessing peoples' behaviors up to this point.

Yeah, pretty good. I might say that maf will be as happy with SK as pro-town power role, but generally you have the idea.

(1) All: For those of you who currently suspect dybeck, can you summarize your reasons? I haven't seen anything compelling from today's perusal.

Primarily his stubborn support for lynching Orig. There is no pro-town reason that we should get rid of him, and yet Dybeck persists in ignoring everything that has been said.

(2) Volkann: In post 439, you listed several possible tracker/vig scenarios. I was confused as to why you included a two-Mafia scenario where originality is scum (#4), but not a single-Mafia one. Can you explain your thinking?

Well, #2 was where Orig is maf/SK and AlyG was tracker. #4 was where both AlyG and Orig are mafia together.

Shaft.ed, my point is that there really were no other options available to originality.

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.

Very good post. You actually are making a damn good point. I retract what I have been saying all along about you being stubborn on this; your reasons are very strong.

The only problem here, though, is that all you have proved is that vig is a safe claim for scum. This doesn't prove that he is scum. Actually, given this logic, it kind of debunks the whole argument that Orig is not a SK.

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Oh dear, gaping hole in your logic here and it has made me think of something.

If you are SK, you KNOW that the other kill was mafia. Therefore, you could be reasonably sure that vig was a safe claim (given that nobody had vigged AlyG who seemed like obv scum).

His major and I think only antagonism was against AlyG. I know him to be town, and you think so too. Now why would a scum kill carrotcake seeing as how he wasn't threatening any of their members? They wouldn't. He did not go against anybody except AlyG.

CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent.
Thus, she was a threat to the scum.
By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG.
It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot.




My final thoughts:
I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess my suspicion falls back to the second person who has raised my eyebrows today: Oman.

[vollkan]

What an egregious bit of misrepresentation. I don't want him to kill. I want him to hang. I've been EXCEPTIONALLY clear about this from the moment he was outed.

All I was saying is that if you insist on leaving scum alive, we MUST take steps to limit the harm that it would do. If we have a killer under our control, we may as well use it. It would be almost like having a real vig.

Yes, I knew what you meant. I don't think he should kill even if he is the vig.

[vollkan]

I still field my question, though: If Orig is a SK, why would he make the one claim which is almost guaranteed to have him NKed? That's the thing which I believe is still being missed here. I mean, even if weak doc or watcher or something is less likely, vig is suicide.

I don't think this has been rebutted anywhere and it is the strongest reason I see for him being a vig or mafia. Dybeck, you described the vig claim as "desperate" but I fail to see why it makes sense for SK-Orig to claim vig. Yes, other claims are less probable, but they are far more likely to result in his survival.

That said,

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig.

[vollkan]

There is more I want to say. These are some thoughts of mine. I don't know whether or not I believe them myself, but I want to post them to see what people think:

If Orig is the SK, then Dybeck's latest actions in no way make him pro-town, for the simple reason that he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon. This goes for anyone, but I just don't think we should be pegging Dybeck as a townie purely because he is hunting a SK.

Secondly, I don't know whether we should be demanding that Orig does not NK. By telling him not to kill, we nullify the threat he presents to the mafia. I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought.

Thirdly, the matter of lynching Orig. If Orig is lynched, we can be certain that AlyG will be NKed. AlyG's power is very useful.

Whilst the mafia have no way of knowing whether Orig is pro-town vig or SK, I think they may be able to make a good guess based on whether they have 2 or 3 members.

[vollkan]

shaft.ed, reading over these past few pages, I really agree with you. The CarrotCake post, in particular, makes a very good point and one which I noticed some time ago. I wanted to see how things played out given that the anti-Orig lobby was relying on it so crucially. My reasons for doing so will become clear below.

Very true. This would mean that if a SK exists and they have only two members he'd be a greater threat than a vig with 3. Don't know how that helps us gain insight however.

Simple.
We have 9 players:
My view is as follows.

Town

shaft.ed -- 80% sure
AlyG -- claimed
Orig -- claimed
Vollkan

Unreadable

Elias_the_thief
Lucienne
Gemelli (As you say, though, slightly scummy. I think about 55% scummy)

Scummy

Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

I think that our situation is 6:3 and that the mafia are

probably

Gemelli, Oman and Dybeck. Meta, Oman is quite easy to be swayed by strong opinions. For that reason, I would personally favour a lynch of Dybeck.

Unvote, Vote: Dybeck

If originality is the vig I do not want him to NK. I don't care, it's terrible situation by the numbers and killing Carrotcake is no testemant to his thought process. Moreover, allowing him to kill gives us no idea whether or not he's vig or SK. If he kills non-scum and survives the night via some mafia mind games he will be auto-lynched tommorow and my vote will be very happily on the wagon.

I don't want him to vig either. However, I don't want to impose a ban on it because that places AlyG at risk. It is possible that if we ban him, the scum will not NK him. If we mislynch today, then we would be very foolish to autolynch tomorrow.

One more thing... I've done some maths...

Bear in mind that it's pretty safe to assume 3 mafia - anything else is highly unlikely in terms of game balance.

Now, let's assume for a sec that originality IS scum.

If we mislynch today, we're down to 8. If mafia and SK both hit town tonight, it's 3 mafia, 2 town and 1 SK and we lose.

If mafia hits SK and SK hits town, it's 3 mafia and 3 town and we lose.

Which means that if originality IS scum, and he's relatively certain the SK can hit town, he will not be guided by us tonight and town will already have lost. So the whole guiding originality's kill thing was probably a non-starter - sorry for suggesting it.

If we mislynch, we are either 5:3, 5:2:1 or 4:3:1.
The mafia will NK Orig. Making it either 4:3 (LYLO), 5:2 or 4:3 (LYLO).
Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia. Whilst we should most definitely not rely on him as a source of help, he does present an immediate problem to the mafia.
Anyway, Orig will either kill town or mafia. Meaning D2 opens at the above possibilities for a no-vig/SKing and the below if Orig kills:
3:3 (Loss), 4:2 (LYLO), 4:2 (LYLO), 5:1, 3:3 (Loss) or 4:2 (LYLO).

However, I personally believe Orig is pro-town.

My thoughts for now:
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

I would be most happy with a Dybeck lynch.

I do not believe we should lynch Orig. He is very likely a pro-town vig. He presents a direct and immediate threat to scum and, therefore, if we lynch him we are freeing up the mafia's NK. For this reason, I am inclinced to believe mafia are the ones pushing his lynch, reflected in my suspicion list.

[vollkan]

If you're mafia, that'd be OK for us. If you're the SK, we lose like I pointed out.

I already dealt with this ages ago in my earlier number analyses. The fact you are raising this falsity now as some fearsome spectre just reinforces my suspicion in you. You are doing all you can to push Orig's lynch in spite of the evidence against you.

[vollkan]

We have 9 players left. A lynch, a SK kill and a mafia kill leaves 6 players, not seven. The scenarios you've listed are what would happen if we went with a no-lynch.

If we mislynch, it goes to 4:3:1 wcs.
Mafia NK of Orig will make it 4:3.
If no Orig NK= 4:3
If Orig NK maf= 4:2
If Orig NK town = 3:3

That said, I believe Orig is pro-town.
Therefore,
If we mislynch, it goes to 5:3.
Mafia NK of Orig makes it 4:3.
If no Orig NK= 4:3
If Orig NK maf= 4:2
If Orig NK town = 3:3

The outcomes are actually the same either way.

[vollkan]

It obviously depends a lot on whether or not we've got 3 or 4 total scum in the game. But assuming the more likely 3 total scum the only way we outright lose in that scenario is if orig is mafia, we lynch town and scum and SK both kill different town during the night phase.

This is something I meant to post last time, but I forgot:
The threat Orig presents to the mafia is incredible.

To make this as wcs as possible, I shall assume that Orig is SK and that we mislynch and that there are 3 mafia. Town lynch makes it 4:3:1.
Scum NK of town makes it 3:3:1.
Now, Orig could target maf or town. If town = 2:3:1 (mafia wins). If mafia = 3:2:1.
In the 3:2:1 situation, if we lynched mafia it becomes 3:1:1. As such, if Orig NKs the last mafia, they lose. As such, Orig presents the prospect of a loss to the mafia even if we mislynch.

[vollkan]

shaft.ed - we can be 99% sure there's a 3-man mafia. Anything else would just be broken. We can argue about the existence of a serial killer, but there will be a 3-man mafia. You won't find any remotely normal 12-person setup on this site without a 3-man mafia.

I myself have been the mafia in a mini normal with only two mafia. Mini 467. There was a SK and 2 mafia. Therefore, there are mini normal games without 3-men mafia.

[vollkan]

Wow. How broken. No wonder DragonsofSummer hasn't modded a game before or since.

Mod: is this your first game as mod?

It was very difficult for us, we managed to make it to 2:1 LYLO which was pretty good given the odds against us.

Anyway, moving back to THIS game, all my reasoning against the Orig lynch is based on the scenario of a 3 person mafia, whether that be 6:3 or 5:3:1.

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

[vollkan]

Anyway, from the last two pages, Dybeck is actually writing stuff, and starting to look town.

However, I believe this is not because he IS town, but because the town is beginning to share his views (Evident in the Dybeck: Town: sketch). Thus I believe Dybeck to be as scummy as ever, and the town is merely parrallel.

Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig.

I don't think anyone has accepted Dybeck's arguments. They improved, definitely, but I still think he is wrong.

[vollkan]

It's pretty unbalanced either way. If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch. So I wouldn't call it broken, just very difficult to balance given the limits of Normal Minis. That's also why you see vigs more often the SKs. And I also find your question rude. Streeflo has been doing a very nice job modding, and I'm sure he worked to get his game balance before he started it up.

Let me second that. I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job as mod ^^.

Also, Oman, do you think we should lynch Orig?

[vollkan]

I'm unsure,

I can see the argument for him being vig, but, Jesus, Carrotcake? Not my top 5.

As I expected you would be.

The optimum answer to me is this:
Do not lynch orig, but put a no-kill bar on him. That way, we lose the danger of the SK, and retain the benefits of finding scum and taking down their collective vote power.

Yes, and then the mafia lose the danger of losing a member and can set up for an autolynch tomorrow.

[vollkan]

If you want to look at it all, I actually change my stance halfway down after thinking about it and say do not lynch orig.

Yes, conditional upon him presenting absolutely no threat to the mafia.

Would you support Orig's lynch if the alternative was him being permitted to NK?

[vollkan]

Only if it was on a scummy target, or else one chosen by a secondary vote (I understand an SK would be fine with it, but it at least gives the town majority some control).

I'd usually be agaisnt directing the vig/SK, but carrotcake?

Look, if I was the vig I would have targeted AlyG or nobody most likely. That said, Orig has explained why he targeted Carrot and shaft.ed has decisively proven that Saint Carrot the Scumhunter is a myth.

Directing him defeats the purpose. If we direct him to take out a townie by accident, the mafia won't NK him. Orig needs to be an uncertain threat to the mafia so that he is NKed. I don't want Orig to NK, but I am leaving the matter entirely up to his cautious judgment.

Yes, conditional upon him presenting absolutely no threat to the mafia.

Or town.

I don't think he is a SK. Hence, I don't think he will pose a threat to us tonight. He should have learnt his lesson by now.

EBWOP: If I was scum (and I know how WIFOM this would get) I probably wouldn't worry so much about orig because his track record isn't great, and he could almost be a lynch target tomorrow conditional on a bad NK.

Not true. shaft.ed and myself have already been quite explicit about who we think is scum and town. I can't speak for shaft.ed, but one reason I have been feeding so much information out is to try and "buff" up Orig a bit. If he is better informed, he is more likely to hit mafia.

[vollkan]

Crossed with Gemelli.

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.

No decision should be made in my opinion. We can (and I have) directed Orig to our most desired candidates but we should not give him an absolute instruction.

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.

I refuse to support directing Orig. If he is mafia, there is a hidden SK who can only hope to succeed here by defeating the mafia.

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.

Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck

What specifically? Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK. If he is mafia, he has motivations for both. His reasoning is deeply flawed and, as such, it looks like he is grasping to get rid of Orig.

[vollkan]

If orig was a mafia (not vig or SK), and delivered the kill confirmation to the mod, I have been assuming that this would trigger the tracker result reported by AlyG.

I may have given you the wrong impression. When there is a tracker or the likes, typically mafia are asked to "specify who will make the kill". It is not by who submits the choice.

I was referring to this:

originality wrote:

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

[vollkan]

As far as not/directing orig tonight: I think that NOT directing him will provide limited value to the town tomorrow. But I agree that leaving him as a wild card gives the Mafia a more difficult choice to make tonight. I suppose that as long as there is some posted consensus in place as to good targets for him, that's really the best we can hope for.

The exact way I would like this to be done is for each player to post a miniature scumdar thing, like what I did with the %s.

I want it to be as informative as possible without being clear instructions. Orig will have to work out whose suspicions to privilege based on the suspicions of other people, etc. and it will be difficult for him, but that is what he has to do IF he chooses to NK.

The wild card effect is too valuable to get rid of.

[vollkan]

I think that is a reasonable *argument*, yes. I'm just not ready to jump in and slap the "confirmed" label on it just yet. But knowing that the mafia are allowed to decide who makes the kill does make it seem less likely that originality is Mafia.

No, he is not confirmed unmafia. He may well have claimed vig in the hopes of either outing the vig or proving there is a SK to his buddies. That said, this is a risky gambit since it makes him a certain NK target, in contrast to claiming RB or something.

[vollkan]

I take it back; I'll post my updates now:

Town
------
Vollkan -- 70% town odds
shaft.ed -- 65% town odds
AlyG (tracker claim) -- 60% town odds

(FWIW, I think it highly likely that Vollkan and shaft.ed are the same alignment.)

Unsure
--------
Lucienne -- 55% town odds

dybeck -- 50% either way

Elias_the_thief -- 55% scum odds

Scummy
----------
Orig (vig claim) -- 60% scum odds (stock is climbing towards town)
Oman -- 75% scum odds

Good. That is exactly what I was talking about.

Bolded:

FWIW, mafia commonly put their partners in a mid-range position. You can't get much more mid-range than 50%. This may become important down the track so I am just noting it here.

[vollkan]

I think Streeflo is doing an excellent job. He's been a faultless mod all the way through, which is why I'm sure there are three mafia in this game.

Only a wildly incompetent mod would put a broken setup together with only two mafia.

However, it is possible that a first time mod would get the balance wrong.

Not true. At all. I have seen it on other occasions as well. It is not a "broken" set up. In Mini 467 my partner made it to 2:1 LYLO and if he hadn't made a silly error we would almost certainly had won.

That's enough grumbling by me about 467, the point is that whilst 2 mafia is more difficult, it certainly is not "game-breaking". Implicit in what you said, Dybeck, is that IF Streeflo put in only 2 mafia THEN Streeflo is incompetent.

I entirely disagree with this and I have a real problem with you circumstantially calling Streeflo incompetent.

[vollkan]

Oh dear Dybeck. When you're in a hole....

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's

1 misrepresented

me on several occasions, and posted

2 mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect,

or

3 somehow not hunting scum.

Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

1) Point me to these misrepresentations.
2) The bulk of the mathematics has been perfectly sound and very much in favour of not lynching Orig. You are focusing on one slip in one post.
3) No. You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia, other than your latest insinuations about shaft.ed and myself.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide. There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

Completely wrong!
We do not lose as a fact if Orig is mafia and we mislynch.
All of this is assuming 5:3:1.
If Orig is mafia,
Mislynch = 4:3:1.
Mafia NK = 3:3:1 (in wcs)
SK NK = 3:2:1 (SK is going to target mafOrig since that is the only way that SK can hope to win)
D3 = 3:2:1. Yucky, but not a LOSS.

If we lynch Orig, we are 5:3 or 5:3 if he is vig or SK, which is more likely than him being mafia. That means the mafia NK puts us in LYLO.

If we lynch mafia today, we will most likely be at either 3:2 (LYLO wcs where Orig vig/SKs a town), 4:3 (LYLO, where Orig does nothing) or 4:1 (Best. Where Orig hits a mafia).

Dybeck is completely wrong.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

And it could just be the case that Orig IS the vig...

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

Why do you believe us to be scum? I am discrediting you because *gasp* you are wrong.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.

Your argument that he is lying has been refuted. I don't like your phrase "have to die".

[vollkan]

Thankyou for your contribution AlyG.

In case you missed it whilst you were writing, a little exchange between Dybeck and myself just occurred. I say this because it is important in that it demonstrates particular scumminess on Dybeck's part.

Overall i will soon be voting for either Oman or Dybeck.

I have favoured Dybeck for some time now and the latest thing has just bolstered this some more. I would really prefer we lynched Dybeck rather than Oman today. I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman.

In #511, Oman voted Dybeck (3rd on wagon) and in #673 dybeck said he thinks Oman could be SK or "anyone". Neither of these has been particularly strong which makes me think of possible distancing. They were both on the Ryan wagon.

If anyone finds any other points hinting at possible relations or lack thereof between them, please raise them.

[vollkan]

Thanks for that Vollkan i'll look into it. Now i want to get an idea of what might happen during the night. So granted, Orig is a vig (who we have instructed not to kill anyone during night) then there will be 1-2 NK's. There will only be 2 if there is indeed a SK. So the mafia i believe will have to choose between killing me or Orig. Now, i believe i have the greatest chance of being killed because if i get a successful track i can determine at least 1 member of the mafia possibly. Tonight, Orig is basically a townie (he hopefully won't kill) so i think i'm the biggest threat to them so i probably will be NK'ed. So i have to survive night if i am to tell everyone my tracking results. What should happen then? Should i be protected by doc or hope for the best?

No, we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution. If Orig could potentially cut down the scum to 2 members, that raises the spectre for them that they could lose their remaining members on D3 (by lynch and another Origging)

For this reason, it seems most likely that the mafia will NK Orig and that you will be left alive.

Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one. Immediately, I see it being sensible for doc to protect you. If only because then if you track someone and they go for Orig, you could out the doc inadvertently, but let me think on this because I am not decided.

[vollkan]

Dude I'm all for letting orig live through today, but Doc protection? You've got to be kidding me. One of the main reasons I think it's worth keeping him alive is because even if he's scum, he's very likely to cause crossfire.

FoS vollkan

I said I was not convinced and I needed to think. I didn't mean that I considered Orig an equal option to AlyG at all. I just meant that I was going to look at both options, rather than immediately ruling it out without doing a proper analysis. I can't think of any reason to protect Orig, after all I've been pushing hard on not lynching Orig for the crossfire thing as well.

How does this work for everyone?

Yes; it is a development on what I initially proposed. Good idea.
My list:
1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).

1) No Kill
2) dybeck
3) Elias
4) AlyG

Wha..!?! You want the confirmed tracker NKed.

Increase HoS on Oman

I will follow this up at the bottom.

It's because they've backed up originality even though failing to lynch him will most likely cause us to lose.

They're leading the town down the doomed path of not lynching originality, and I believe this is because they are his scummates.

They've told us they believe that originality goes out killing obviously protown players of an evening and yet could still be a protown player. For this, I believe that they are mafia. It would certainly be interesting to see whether originality would bump off his scummates to stay alive.

Scream all you want that shaft.ed and I are leading the town to destruction; the maths speak otherwise. You are just being obtuse here by ignoring the reality just to score an Orig lynch.

Everything you are saying there has been refuted at some point, and you must know that.

First, my opinion on vollkan is slightly less certain than it was last night. I admire the length and depth of his posts, but some of the basic premises underlying the arguments seem to shift around a bit without comment. Some rushed examples: post 439, CC's later posts were "pure brilliance" vs. post 638, commenting that CC wasn't really all that active. Post 598, I seem "very pro-town" vs. post 638, I am "55% scummy."

Good observations. I will explain this.
CC's later posts were good efforts at scum-hunting, even if the claims suggest otherwise. My remarks were confined exclusively to her later posts however, because I knew that she was pretty much a lurker besides. In fact, in 439 I actually said

Carrot was about more helpful than everybody else. Fine, he lurked early, but his later stuff was pure brilliance. I don't buy this at all.

I admit that Carrot's later posts probably contorted my opinion of her so that I thought more of her than I otherwise should have. That became clearer to me as things progressed.

As for the difference regarding my opinion of you, Gemelli. It stemmed from my changed views regarding Orig and the situation with Dybeck and from me remembering to consider your predecessor's play. When I said I thought you were very pro-town, I was reading you in isolation.

This you say after 5 posts which are saying this same exact thing. She never really contributes anything, she just reeinforces what other people have been saying.

Good point.

------------------
First, let me drag up this:

My view is as follows.
Town
shaft.ed -- 80% sure
AlyG -- claimed
Orig -- claimed
Vollkan

Unreadable
Elias_the_thief
Lucienne
Gemelli (As you say, though, slightly scummy. I think about 55% scummy)

Scummy
Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

Even if both Oman and dybeck are scum, there is one mafia among Gem, Elias and Lucienne. That worries me because thus far they are all fairly unreadable.

Elias is lurking despite posting elsewhere.
Lucienne fails to deliver and just restates.

Some observations:
Dybeck has myself and shaft.ed above Oman on his list. Dybeck is isolated in viewing shaft.ed and myself as scummy. Now, Oman has Dybeck at 2 on his list. Gemelli has Oman -2 and Dybeck - 3.

The fact that dybeck wants shaft.ed (who consider pro-town) and myself (who I know to be pro-town) killed above Oman rings alarm bells. In the same way that Oman placing AlyG on his list does also.

Oman placing dybeck at 2 is possibly distancing from him. Insofar as he knows dybeck is going to be high on everyone else's lists, so placing dybeck elsewhere will raise questions should dybeck come up scum. This is a thought for later however.

I think that if either of Oman or dybeck comes up scum, it draws a lot of suspicion onto the survivor.

Personally, I still favour dybeck. That latest exchange between us and the fact that he is now pushing for the killing of shaft.ed and myself purely because we disagree with his ridiculous arguments makes me very confident about this.

At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today.

[vollkan]

Post 708# was a mistake i accidentally pressed send lol.

Figured.

4) AlyG is replaced by Lucienne.

This is simply because 4) was AlyG, not because it was AlyG.

Despite how dreadfully he worded this; I think Oman is trying to argue that the fact that he has now replaced AlyG with Lucienne is

entirely independent

of the fact that he has been called out for having AlyG on his list.

I believe the most appropriate term is "back-pedalling".

[vollkan]

AlyG was 4)

Lucienne should be 4)

Thus Lucienne replaces AlyG. As vollkan said, entirely independant of the fact that AlyG's spot on my list got me attacked.

Its not back pedalling its simple fact.

I did not say it was entirely independant, I said you were trying to argue it was inpendent.

If not back-pedalling, then what?

[vollkan]

A change of opinion, based on a good post by orig and the subsequent reread.

Ah okay.

Would you still support the NKing of AlyG as an option, though? As in, if we all had AlyG at 1, would you be opposed?

[vollkan]

Yes!

Ignore my last post then, that was a trap of the Mini 486 kind. (Where I day-vigged mafiaOman on D1 by asking him a trap question).

A change of opinion, based on a good post by orig and the subsequent reread.

What about Lucienne's post persuaded you, and what did you uncover on your reread?

AlyG is by far not #1 material, and if

dybeck killed her

with me having him at 4 and you guys leaving him off, I'd be into him (thats not a town play).

*blink* Wha?! How does Dybeck go about killing her?

For your sake, you better be able to explain this one.

[vollkan]

Sorry that was a mistake, switch dybeck for orig. We're contextually talking about orig anyway.

Still a very interesting slip for if either of you shows up as mafia.

Anyway, subbing Orig back in to the statement:

AlyG is by far not #1 material, and if

Orig

killed her with me having him at 4 and you guys leaving him off, I'd be into him (thats not a town play).

This is a strange statement indeed because it is firmly rooted in the (potentially rather telling) assumption that AlyG is pro-town. Given that you recently had AlyG as a NK candidate, this is a remarkable change of heart Oman.

Something else:

#2 should be dybeck,

or if you are convinced he's innocent

either Elias or lucienne, I'm really not sure wether cronic lurking or chronic lurking +1 scumtell in an effort to "help" the town (might not be helping)

** Note, #1 is No Kill in the above quote by Oman. #2 is his most-preferred actual NK candidate.

Nobody has said they are convinced dybeck is innocent, almost the opposite really. I cannot see why on earth you would raise this sort of notion at all. The only effect of it is to subtly promote the NKing of Lucienne or Elias without actually taking dybeck out of the #2 slot, which would be obvious distancing from you.

[vollkan]

Because I'm not goign to tell people to put dybeck as #2 if they think he's town. Its their choice.

Er, Oman this is

your

list we are talking about. Nobody is "putting" dybeck at #2 except you. This is you trying to mold your list around what other people think to the effect of encouraging the NK of Elias or Lucienne.

And, that's all very well, but nobody said dybeck was town so I don't see the logic that prompted this.

Lets look again at what you said:

#2 should be dybeck, or if you are convinced he's innocent either Elias or lucienne, I'm really not sure wether cronic lurking or chronic lurking +1 scumtell in an effort to "help" the town (might not be helping)

dybeck is #2 on your list regardless of what anyone else thinks. It is YOUR list. What you are saying here is: "If you don't want to NK dybeck, then you should replace him in my preferences with Elias or Lucienne"
The effect of this is to sneakily bump up Elias and Lucienne as NK preferences.

[vollkan]

Gah..hit submit by accident

Addressing the next bit of Oman's post:

And AlyG may be scummy, but I put him at #4, I still firmly believe that he is not #1. You're twisting this, saying that I am denying an AlyG kill by not puting him #1, but supporting it by putting him #4. The simple fact is, if he's on my list, I want him there (Though he's not).

No. I never said that at all. My words were:

AlyG is by far not #1 material, and if Orig killed her with me having him at 4 and you guys leaving him off, I'd be into him (thats not a town play).

This is a strange statement indeed because it is firmly rooted in the (potentially rather telling) assumption that AlyG is pro-town. Given that you recently had AlyG as a NK candidate, this is a remarkable change of heart Oman.

You just don't get this, do you...
You are saying you would go after Orig if he NKed AlyG because that would be anti-town. You still haven't picked up on the fact that

you are assuming AlyG is protown

because you are saying that killing AlyG would be something that you would go after Orig for.

Now, the only way out for you here is to say that "What if Orig was a SK killing mafia AlyG?" Fine...except that if AlyG is mafia than AlyG is not tracker (unless AlyG came up mafia tracker, which is very unlikely).

Now, to add further fire against you, this assumption makes no sense given that you were just recently having AlyG as #4 on a list of preferred candidates for NK. The person you are now bluntly assuming is pro-town.

Unvote, Vote: Oman

You've well and truly taken the lead.

[vollkan]

The reason I would go after orig is because AlyG is so far down the preference list that he's not a logical pro-town night choice.

You're estimating my motives, and you're....WRONG!

But you are assuming AlyG is protown. The other option is that AlyG comes up mafia, in which case, Orig is a likely scum partner (despite how nonsensical THAT would be). But this is not even entertained by you. You assume, prima facie, that a NK of AlyG is anti-town here, despite you allowing for AlyG as a NK candidate.

I don't think you see the problem here: In one post you allow for AlyG's NK. Yes, 4th preference, but she was on the list nonetheless. You could have put nobody in there if you were as convinced about her being pro-town as you now imply.

[vollkan]

I got a feeling that I had missed something vital when I voted Oman, and I now realise what it was.

Unvote, Vote: Dybeck

.

I would like Oman to respond to my points anyway. Reason being is that the problem is one which will be dependent on Oman's responses now. Oman's response will determine if my vote moves.

I am sorry for being so cryptic about all this, but I will explain it.

[vollkan]

Okay.

NO I'M NOT!!

I'm saying if we take a vote on what orig does and he goes against it regardless of his target (town or scum) he is an SK and/or mafia, there is no reason for a town player to go against it. REGARDLESS OF ALYG'S ALIGNMENT!

The problem I realised is related to this.

If Orig NKs AlyG, Orig has to be anti-town. Why? If AlyG comes up town, then Orig has, as you say, gone against everyone and killed a power role. That reeks of scumminess for obvious reasons.

If AlyG is mafia, then AlyGcould not have tracked Orig. I said this earlier on, but I was thinking about it in entirely the wrong way. This makes Orig obvMafia.

If AlyG is SK, Orig is obvMafia.

My earlier point about Oman bumping Lucienne and Elias remains, but this latest thing which I thought tipped him over was the result of me not thinking about this properly.

[vollkan]

I'd like to appologise for all the caps too, you just didn't seem to get what my actual point was

I didn't even get what my actual point was XD

[vollkan]

That me saying that orig killing AlyG was bad meant AlyG was protown in my mind.

Yes...I just meant that I was thinking the wrong way about this.

[vollkan]

FTR: I see your argument as crappy, not scummy

That's the reason why I am so pedantic about my math/mass analysis deconstruction posts. When I don't use one I am apt to make mistakes.

[vollkan]

She hasn't been a yes-person throughout the game. Some arguments, she has accepted. Others, she has challenged. While I certainly agree that advancing independent opinions is an important part of scumhunting, acting as an objective sounding board for the arguments of others is also part of the game.

But this is a very easy strategy for scum to do. They don't need to hunt down for things, they can simply question and probe at the logic of other people.

I personally think that if someone is not actively hunting for their own evidence, that is a case for mild suspicion. It is not a vote-worthy tell, but it is valid nonetheless.

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

If he agrees to follow this process, I think we'll be in good shape.

This is what I have been concerned about. As it stands, it appears Orig will not NK. Whilst it is good that he won't NK, the fact that it

appears

like that defeats the purpose of this.

By adopting this approach, we have made it a near-certainty that Orig will not NK.

Let me be clear here, I

do not

want Orig to NK, but

I want

his actions to be a complete unknown.

Hence, Orig should not approach this on a set mathematical basis, as in, selecting the most popular option. Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty.

No Kill - 24 points
Dybeck - 16 points
Oman - 12 points
Elias - 9 points
Lucienne - 4 points
Shaft.ed - 3 points
Vollkan - 2 points

I haven't done the maths on this myself, but what Gem has there looks correct. Clearly, No Kill is preferred. However, Orig, do not take that as a demand from us that you do not kill. Exercise your own judgment here. I would prefer it if you didn't kill, but I am not going to demand that you follow this list.

Iv'e got 1 question, is everyone prepared to lose originality tonight? I remember Vollkan said that we are and no one denied it.

Well, it will either be you or Orig that will get taken out, even if Orig is scum. Orig's alignment is much murkier than your own. If Orig comes up mafia, that may point more to you being mafia also, but at the moment we have

Anyway, my point is that applying ANY subjective factors to the measurement is a bad, bad idea. I am OK with you making a personal judgement on which of the four town-consensus choices you will choose. I am NOT ok with you making subjective judgements in deciding what "town consensus" means. If you choose to fudge with an objective set of data, you are not working in the town's best interests. You are making a relatively arbitrary decision based on personal preference. My vote moving off you was primarily contingent on you allowing the town to direct your action tonight.

Interesting. Given the off-chance that the mafia are outside the consensus choices, I think it might be an idea not to demand that Orig limit himself to them. Orig has complete control here and our list is only a guide. I suggest he follow the guide, but he is not bound by it if he thinks it is the best course of action otherwise. However, should Orig kill anybody, he will have

a lot

of explaining to do regarding what prompted him to make that choice.

In any event, assuming that we have more town players than scum players, scum opinions will be naturally disadvantaged in this process. You don't need to weight anyone's votes in order for the town to get the loudest voice.

Oh dear, I don't like this. You are assuming that town opinions are correct here.

But I think that we DO need his actions to be at least a little unpredictable tonight if we hope to eke out a tactical advantage for the town.

Okay. I agree with this.

[vollkan]

I also have half a mind to shove all these probabilities into a random generator and have it spit out what I should do. That would definitely do with the unpredictable factor, but maybe it could come out stupid. What do you think?

Definitely

not

. All we need is for it to be clear that you could foreseeably NK

anybody

. The way we invoke that is simply by leaving it up to your judgment. By leaving it up to you we introduce enough uncertainty. The prospect that you could NK the scum, which would place them in a position to lose tomorrow (ie. a D2 NK, a D3 lynch and a D3 NK by you) places them under immense pressure. This is the case even if you are the SK and even if you are a mafia (ie. there is a SK somewhere else).

Of course, I am not giving you free rein here, and I expect a tremendous amount of explanation for if you do decide to kill (hence why a random thing is very stupid; it would allow scumOrig to very easily get away with a NK).

If your actions are uncertain, you are a threat. I can imagine that your likelihood of NKing is somewhere between 0 and 50%. Whilst I would hope it is nowhere near 50%, it is possible depending on how you are thinking about this.
If you do decide to NK tonight,

if we mislynch and it is 6:3, then there are 6 viable candidates for you (6 because I take out the lynchee, yourself and AlyG).

Therefore, P(you NK mafia) = 0.5 (3/6)

if we mislynch and it is 5:3:1 and you are SK, then there are 7 viable candidates for you (7 because I take out the lynchee and yourself. AlyG is a candidate for NK by you ).

Therefore, P(you NK mafia) = 0.43 (3/7)

if we mislynch and it is 5:3:1 and you are mafia, then there are 6 viable candidates for you (5 because I take out the lynchee, yourself, AlyG who is your partner and your other partner).

Therefore, P(you NK the SK) = 0.2 (1/5)

What about if we lynch scum today:

If we lynch a SK today, that proves you are mafia. Therefore, a town NK is certain.

If we lynch a mafia today and it is 6:3, you have 6 viable candidates (6 because I take out the lynchee, youself and AlyG)

Therefore, P(you NK mafia) = 0.33 (2/6)

If we lynch a mafia today and it is 5:3:1, you have 7 viable candidates for you (7 because I take out the lynchee and yourself

Therefore, P(you NK mafia) = 0.285 (2/7)

Now, simply multiply the probability of you committing a NK by any of these to work out the probability of you hitting a scum. Except, of course, for where you are scum because then there is a much higher probability of you NKing.

Hence, taking the options where you are protown,
if we mislynch the probability of you NKing mafia is 0.50.
If we lynch mafia, the probability of you NKing mafia is 0.33.

Thus, even if you are only 25% likely to commit a NK, that still means that the probability that a mafia will be NKed is 0.125 or 0.0825. Not particularly large, but a serious threat nonetheless when we are talking about them risking their whole game on it. Because, once the identity of one of them is known, our chances of determining the others skyrocket.

In short, this is a good threat for us to maintain.

[vollkan]

I'd amend this to read "clear that you could forseeably NK at least one of the mafia."

No. I meant "anybody" in contrast to "a selected target", since a selected target may or may not be a mafia member. It needs to be entirely uncertain to accommodate for our own potential errancy.

What I like about the consensus list approach is that it gives us a strong chance of getting at least one Mafioso into the top four positions. I don't think it's necessary for ALL of the Mafia to be potential targets. There simply needs to be significant odds in play that you might take out a Mafioso tonight. As Vollkan writes, if you DO NK a scum, the Mafia will be on their heels.

The advantage of the consensus listing is that it shows Orig where the bulk of the opinion lies. That is all it should be. The whole thing is left up to Orig's judgment, but this provides very strong guidance for his judgment. I agree with the consensus list as it has been established, but it could be wrong. For that reason, I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus.

I realise this looks like I am just playing semantics to create uncertainty, but there is a practical basis for this. If Orig NKed, say, Lucienne, shaft.ed or myself (the bottom three of the list), he would rightly come under immense suspicion regardless of what alignment came up. However, there is still room for Orig having some reason for doing so (ie. a major scumtell that nobody has yet picked up on). For that reason, Orig might well have a good justification for breaching consensus in some circumstances. That said, the onus on him will rightly be

extremely

heavy to justify this.

The way I see it, as things are now, they are fine. We have not demanded that Orig stick to the consensus, but he knows very clearly that he is

strongly

obliged to do so. This makes the probability of a person at the lower end of the list being NKed significantly less likely than if we left this to blind chance, but I think there is enough uncertainty there that the mafia are under an immense risk by allowing Orig to survive even if the list is wrong.

Something else which is

interesting

:

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight

we're likely to lose originality

to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

Wha..!? You are clearly assuming there are two scum groups (this is consistent with your view that Orig is scum)

but

then you say that we (which, for your sake, had better mean town) are going to

lose Orig.

This is completely contradictory with you supposing there are 2 scum groups, one of which Orig is a member.

If there are 2 scum groups, Orig is scum. Therefore, we (the town) do not "lose" if Orig gets NKed.

In other words, dybeck, you are not only admitting the possibility of Orig being town but you are actually assuming it. Which kinda makes me wonder about the bolded:

Day 2, Votecount #19!

Oman (2) - Gemelli, shaft.ed

dybeck (1) - vollkan

originality (1) - dybeck

Lucienne (1) - originality

Not voting: Everyone else

Needless to say, this increases my confidence in the underlined.

[vollkan]

Vollkan, it is a 6:3 chance of hitting mafia on a misslynch if you count shaft.ed and yourself (no biasing here, you two are the lowest ones on the lists). Without that, 4:3. It resumes to pretty much picking the least scummy of the 4 and killing anyone else besides him. The lists would definitely dictate the situation if this happens. Is this acceptable for you, Gemelli? That if we end up misslynching, I'd take out the lowest three on the lists besides myself and AlyG and kill one of the remaining? This seems to me a pretty decent way to use the info from the lists.

Disclaimer: I'm not stating this as a definite plan of action, just an example on the process of thought tonight. I still have to take no-kill and other things into consideration.

I see. There are many justifiable methodologies for you,providing you give very due weight to No Kill and take serious consideration of the list (as well as its potential error). This particular methodology is just you using the list to exclude candidates and to work by elimination rather than selection. I don't think it is fundamentally any different. Having said that, you still need to be very mindful of error and exceedingly mindful of the strong argument for you not NKing.

[vollkan]

Vollkan, sorry that I gave you the impression that I think originality is town.

I thought that I'd made my position overtly clear but I do not think originality is town, I think he is scum and needs to die. If you want me to say it again, I'm happy to do so, but I do feel like I've said it a lot.

Er...that's why it is a contradiction dybeck. You said we will "lost Orig". If Orig is scum, that is simply not the case. I don't get why you are apologizing for this.

[vollkan]

You seem to think you've found evidence that I've made a slip that shows I believe myself and originality to be on the same side?

Is that right?

No dybeck.

You said we "lose Orig". Presuming by "we" you meant town then you should not have said we "lose Orig" because you are convinced (aren't you?) that Orig is scum. If by "we" you did not mean town...well, you know what

that

means.

[vollkan]

Hey, I learned how to link to a middle of a page and make words into an url.
Now the first post is looking really rad with links to the Lynch scene for Day 1 and Night Scene for N1. =)

Great. That should make navigation a little easier.

Vollkan... I'm confused... which of the following are you trying to prove?

1) Me and orig are both town. You think that my use of the word "we" refers to only the town players in the game, and that I secretly believe originality to be town, and I'm trying to get him lynched anyway?

2) Me and orig are both scum. You think that my use of the word "we" refers to a scum group that contains me and originality, and that I'm trying to get him lynched anyway?

3) Me and originality are on different sides, but then why would I use the word "we" for any other reason that to describe the whole lot of us as a group? And what's your point?

Alright, let me take you through this slowly.

You said:

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

Which means that tonight

we're

likely to

lose originality

to the

other scum group

and

me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

By "we're" I assume you mean "the town are". If you include yourself in a group which is not the town, by all means tell me I am wrong.

If "we" are the town, the "we" only "lose Orig" if Orig is pro-town. If Orig is maf/SK we do not "lose" Orig. Now, all the way through this you have been adamant that Orig is scum, yet here you clearly assume (with no explanation) that Orig is town and that his NK will be a loss for the town.

Moreover, you identify Orig as being killed by the "other scum group". Well, if there is an "other" scum group, Orig is scum. Furthermore, you then say we "lose" you to "Orig", whom you presumably think is the non-other scum group.

But, your just assumed that Orig is town because you said his death is a "lose" for us. This a clear contradiction from you.

I am not talking about 1, 2 or 3.

What I see here is the possibility you have included under 3 but have sought to avoid by trying to back-pedal what you meant by "we". That is: You are mafia and Orig is town. "We" means "the town". Your post, therefore, only makes sense if it reads:

Which means that tonight

[THE TOWN ARE]

likely to

lose originality

to the

[MAFIA]

and

[ME TO THE MAFIA]

You did not use "we" as a global identifier because you then specified the "other scum group". If "we" was global, then the other scum group would be a part of we.

This post is inconsistent with your convinced vote on Orig.

I will explain this again and again until it sinks in.

[vollkan]

Yeah you might have to explain it again. I'm just not sure where you're going.

"We" just means "the remaining 9 of us". And "the other scum group" means "the one that originality is not part of".

I shall bold in the quote below and then put it in absolute simple brief at the end.

Vollkan... I'm confused... which of the following are you trying to prove?

1) Me and orig are both town. You think that my use of the word "we" refers to only the town players in the game, and that I secretly believe originality to be town, and I'm trying to get him lynched anyway?

I am not trying to prove this one. I think this is whole thing is a further cause for suspicion so it in no way makes me think you are town.

2) Me and orig are both scum. You think that my use of the word "we" refers to a scum group that contains me and originality, and that I'm trying to get him lynched anyway?

No. Remember, I don't think Orig is scum

3) Me and originality are on different sides, but then why would I use the word "we" for any other reason that to describe the whole lot of us as a group? And what's your point?

This is the problem. I think:
3A) Dybeck is mafia and Orig is a pro-town vig. Dybeck uses the word "we". "We" should mean either "the town" (unless dybeck is admitting to be mafia) or "everyone". Dybeck initially said the the quote-in-a-quote below this quote-in-a-quote. In the quote-in-a-quote I am referring to, dybeck says "we" are likely to "lose" Orig and himself at night and then asks if anyone has a problem with it. Now, the problems with this are:
1) Dybeck thinks Orig is scum. Thus, dybeck should not be saying that we "lose" Orig. In his view we "get rid of Orig" or something similar. The fact that dybeck writes about both his loss and Orig's loss as though they are negative to the town is inconsistent with him being damn convinced Orig is scum.

2) Dybeck is ignoring the fact that the outcome of the list was a No Kill. Yet. he is still fearful of the prospect of being NKed because he describes it as a loss and asks if anyone has a problem with it.

3) Dybeck is assuming that Orig is going to NK him over anybody else. Again, he is looking at this in terms of a danger to himself.

Alright, let me take you through this slowly.

You said:

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

No! The favoured outcome is No Kill but nothing is certain

Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality.

Is there anyone unhappy with this?

By "we're" I assume you mean "the town are".

Okay, no. You say it means "all 9 of us"

If you include yourself in a group which is not the town, by all means tell me I am wrong.

If "we" are the town,

or all of us

the "we" only "lose Orig" if Orig is pro-town.

loss implies negative consequences [/b[ If Orig is maf/SK we do not "lose" Orig.

we "eliminate" or "get rid of" Orig

Now, all the way through this you have been adamant that Orig is scum

and you still are

, yet here you clearly assume (with no explanation) that Orig is town and that his NK will be a loss for the town.

"for the town" may be removed from that sentence.

Moreover, you identify Orig as being killed by the "other scum group". Well, if there is an "other" scum group, Orig is scum. Furthermore, you then say we "lose" you to "Orig", whom you presumably think is the non-other scum group.

But, your just assumed that Orig is town because you said his death is a "lose" for us. This a clear contradiction from you.

I am not talking about 1, 2 or 3.

What I see here is the possibility you have included under 3 but have sought to avoid by trying to back-pedal what you meant by "we". That is: You are mafia and Orig is town. "We" means "the town". Your post, therefore, only makes sense if it reads:

Which means that tonight

[WE ARE]

likely to

lose (ie. sustain a negative consequence from the elimination of ) originality

to the

[MAFIA]

and

[ME TO THE MAFIA]

You did not use "we" as a global identifier because you then specified the "other scum group". If "we" was global, then the other scum group would be a part of we.

This post is inconsistent with your convinced vote on Orig.

I will explain this again and again until it sinks in.

Now, to try and make this clear.
1) Orig's death can only be called a loss if he is not scum. You call Orig's death a loss, therefore you are assuming Orig is pro-town. Yet, you are voting Orig.
2) The outcome, if the guide was followed to the letter, was a no kill. You seem to be over-emphasising the danger to yourself here.

Dybeck, this is not a killer point, despite how much I am having to write on it. It is a complicated semantic one.

[vollkan]

1) Originality is "lost" to the game regardless of his alignment. I am not assuming Orig is pro-town. Orig is scum and there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever. I'm not sure how many different ways I have to say this to you vollkan. Because short of translating it into other languages, I've stated "I'm certain that originality is scum" in about as many different ways as I know.

Alright. That's fine then and is a plausible explanation for it. I initially raised this with you meaning "town" by "we". You have now clarified this matter in full.

2) The outcome, if followed to the letter, was that orig gets to choose from a number of options. He'd made it quite clear (post 741) that he'll kill me. You need to realise exactly what it means to give originality a free hand here. It means that both me and originality die tonight. This is what everyone's voting for or against.

This clarifies the second part of what you said.

Now, let's look at what Orig said:

My weighing scale isn't secret, its pretty much dybeck=not worth anything and shaft.ed=worth double. (I exaggerate of course, but its something like that. I wouldn't count someone who is scum, would I? And I don't think dybeck is missing from the top 3 of anyone's lists. ) Also whoever we happen to lynch, if the person is scum he gets nothing counted for him, and there's that.

And I see a lot of people not considering lucienne yet, such as shaft.ed. I'd like to hear from you about this.

He is going to give shaft.ed more weighting than you. Given that your list is a significant outlier, it would actually make no difference even if he did give you equal weight which, as a matter of principle, Orig

should

; though in practice it will have no effect.

I don't see where he makes it clear he is going to kill you. Indeed, if he was to follow shaft.ed more than anyone else, he would be led to a No Lynch.

Nobody is granting Orig a "free hand". We have all been clear that he is expected not to NK without a damn good reason and he must give very tremendous regard to our list.

So... you've found hard evidence that orig and I are both mafia, yet:

1) You think that it's entirely plausible that orig and I are on the same side, despite the fact that I want him lynched so much.
2) You still think it's a good idea to let orig have a free hand with his kill tonight.
3) You still wouldn't consider voting originality.

Is this basically it? You're sure this couldn't all be a red herring? You sure this isn't just a waste of everyone's time?

No. I don't think Orig is mafia.

You quoted me saying:

What I see here is the possibility you have included under 3 but have sought to avoid by trying to back-pedal what you meant by "we". That is: You are mafia and

Orig is town.

"We" means "the town". Your post, therefore, only makes sense if it reads:
dybeck wrote:

Which means that tonight [WE ARE] likely to lose (ie. sustain a negative consequence from the elimination of ) originality to the [MAFIA]

Orig is killed by mafia and is, therefore, NOT mafia) and [ME TO THE MAFIA]

[vollkan]

I agree that the "3 targets and No Kill" is the way he should approach things. However, again, to allow for every possibility, he is not restricted on penalty of auto-lynch to those options; there is simply a much higher burden of explanation.

I kind of see it as:
1) No Kill = No problem
2) Kill of High Candidate = What made him think it was a safe enough risk? If unable to explain, then begin to bandwagon/pressure/etc.
3) Kill of Low Candidate = What was the absolutely damning evidence he found? If unable to explain properly, then move to lynch.

I don't mean this as a set of rules or anything; it is just the way I am seeing it in my mind as the sorts of likely outcomes.

[vollkan]

If we're going to give originality that much freedom, we'd be better off just letting him have a free hand.

Anything else does not give us the benefit of controlling a possible scum, but does give the other scum group info about his actions that they really don't need to have.

I say we either give orig a specific order, or we give him a free hand and remind him that at least one of us has his eyes on him.

You say "If we give Orig this much freedom we'd be better off giving him a free hand". What would be the ideal scenario for you then?

[vollkan]

I think giving orig too much freedom actually plays into scum hands. Given his presumably poor decision in killing Carrotcake, the scum may run a "leave him alive" gambit in which they can bet on originality screwing it up for himself and using poor discretion possibly killing a townie. If orig is in fact pro-town, which I am leaning towards, and he gets us into such a situation it's undoubtedly a town loss. Therefore, if orig kills anyone not in the top 3 and they come up town, I'm autovoting. I obviously can't control the rest of the towns votes, but this is my position on the matter.

That's fine. I actually think there is even an advantage in us adopting slightly different attitudes to this, because it makes the outcome even more uncertain for the mafia, in that they cannot rely on Orig being autolynched if he stuffs up.

The basic thing we need is to make keeping Orig alive as risky as possible for mafia. If Orig's actions are uncertain and Orig's lynch is uncertain, the scum are put in a very tight spot.

vollkan, You are obviously the most outspoken opponent of dybeck. I too see a number of scum tells coming from him, but I can also interperet a lot of his play as a frustrated townie that adamantly thinks the lynching of orig is the only logical play for the town. I also find Oman's more erratic and somewhat opprotunistc play to be more what I'd expect from scum given that being as single-minded as dybeck has been can work very much against him, especially if orig were to come up town post-lynching. Do you have any reasons that I should implicitly think dybeck to be scum and not a stubborn townie adamant in his own conclusion? Because as of now I'm more comfortable with an Oman lynch.

I understand this point and I admit it is giving me a bit of frustration. I mean, I can see a townie adopting dybeck's stance, the problem is that it has been proven to be so wrong that I can't understand why he persists in pushing it. Then the fact that he places yourself and myself at #2 and #3.

I don't have any answer to this problem and it is one that is looming very large.

I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy?

When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse.

I am prepared to vote Oman as this approaches deadline but for now I do not want to lower my attack on dybeck because if you are wrong about Oman, we are going to need all the information we can get.

[vollkan]

The town here is strong...

*blink* I really cannot see your basis for saying that unless you are mafia

[vollkan]

However, if we let him live, we should tell him EXACTLY what to do. That way, we limit the damage he can do if he is scum and, frankly, we limit the damage he could do if he were town. After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town, and still hasn't managed to come up with a single scummy thing his poor victim said, I think it's best that we don't even let a pro-town originality loose with his pro-town strangling-rope that he happened to bring onto this plane.

We need uncertainty and carrot was not clearly pro-town. This is not true. Yes, that would limit the damage he can do, but it also helps the scum in that they can then safely kill trackerAlyG.

I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing. I will support him being told he really shouldn't, but he must be given some leeway so that the prospect of him killing and not being lynched remains as a threat. I really don't want Orig to risk it, but I also don't want to lose the uncertainty.

Vollkan jumps on the global identifier thing way too hard. I'll say he's town, but jeez, its really unneccesary.

It actually was only meant as a minor observation, unfortunately dybeck's requests for clarification kind of snowballed it in size, though not importance.

[vollkan]

Yes. Thanks for noticing.

[vollkan]

although I am puzzled by why you're grouping me with Lucienne in 793, since NONE of the posts you quoted had anything to do with her in the slightest.

You're not connected, you are just two players who went down in town-ness. I'm not suggesting your connected in any way.

Oman, you ignored the second point of Gem's: That nothing you quoted was about Lucienne. Indeed, you don't mention Lucienne at all other than saying she is becoming more suspicious.

Carrotcake wasn't protown?

Or... has someone managed to find a single scummy thing carrotcake said yet? Something better than originality's "I feel it in my gut" story?

This. Stop being obtuse.

The Life and Times of Carrotcake the Most Pro-Town Players Ever

Carrotcake's time with us was cut tragically short by the hands for originality. Now we are left to ponder whether originality commited this act as one of malice or one of caution. Let us examine here the incredible contributions carrotcake made to our town during her time here.

Carrotcake was not at all an active poster. She made a total of 9 posts on a day that contained 333 that's right she contributed to 2.7% of the dialogue. Now let's look at those posts chronologically:

First post:
Carrotcake wrote:Vote: originality


Random voting phase. Nothing of significance.

Second post:
Carrotcake wrote:


originality wrote:

its just the first day, its not like we need a very good reason to vote on anyone.

Voting - sure, but lynching without a good reason is asking for trouble

originality wrote:

iunless you expect to catch scum on the very first lynch, chances are we are going to get a townie. might as well make the best of it by lynching the ones that are not contributing.

Of course we expect to hang scum! There is a chance that we would lynch a power role too, as we don't know the set-up.
originality wrote:

or maybe you are just ignoring all logic to save your scumbuddies?

Lucienne, is in very little danger as of now. He has no posts, and its too early to call him a lurker. His fellow scum would not get rattled (if he is indeed scum). Spurg, and Aly are the ones taking the time to be logical here. You are being too pushy.

Aly might be too forward by voting for you, but you seem like a person with a lot to say. Adding pressure to you might be nice for the town.
Pointing out politely that originality is wrong in supporting the lynching of lurkers and that games here are slower so someone is not considered a lurker until they haven't posted for a number of days.

Third Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

Whatever [/ quote]

Whatever [/ quote]

Whatever [/ quote]
Remove all the spaces inside the braces, and just play around with it. Don't forget the quotation marks. I see people double post all the time, so it isn't a bad thing as far as I know.

Teaching AlyG how to use quote tags. Very pro-town activity here.

Fourth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

I have to go away for a few days. I might still be able to post, but I cant guarantee that I can scan through posts like normal.

Not going be here for a few days. Not much to add.

Fifth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

- I thought everyone vanilla claims by default at the start of the game, so Blackstrike's claim is meaningless. The scum might think that he is lying and aim for him anyways, or they might think that he is drawing attention for a NK and vote for someone else. Its a WIFOM, that does not help the scum at all. His next posts were a bit confusing though.



--- for the vamp and oman thing
Quote:

When I say defending himself with an attack I mean as his defense, he attacks.
Drawing attention from yourself is indeed scummy. But to me, it just seems like he is attacking. Being aggressive is actually a favorable trait for a townie, as it makes things happen. And allows the town to create an informed decision.

-Quote:

Did anyone actually see what the size one writing said? Anyway that seemed scummy for me
I might be misunderstanding you, but do you mean you have not even read the small white text?
Start's by saying she doesn't find Dr. BS claiming vanilla scummy.
Then she defends Oman from VampanezeHunter's ludicrous argument and points out VH was a moron.

Sixth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:Vote: AlyG
for spreading confusion and hate

I have to intense studying to in to, this is my last long post for a while (even if the quality is quite low). I can still post small snippets though!

On AlyG --- after a short read of posts

- Very aggressive against originality, he attacks "lets lynch the lurkers" over a series of posts. AlyG then attacks originality after listening to general reasoning, and changing his mind. Not really scummy, but it seems to be bloodthirsty. This worries me as it seems like bullying an easy target. Getting an easy lynch.


- "And originality, if you don't come up with a good defence i'll be voting for you which means you'll already at 4 votes. Not good. " - AlyG
"you shouldn't be so eager to put votes on people. He was already on 3 votes and getting to 4 on the 2nd page is going a bit to far. " -AlyG to Oman
You yourself threatened to cast the fourth vote, but you attack Oman for doing it instead of you. You seem to care too much about the placement of your own votes, as if you are avoiding something.
- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?
- " And Dr. Blackstrike who's role claiming is really destroying our chances of winning. " Is really destroying seems to be an exaggeration. Invoking hate against Blackstrike.


- You do not switch your votes around. You already know about being wishy washy, so you might be working to avoid vote switching. You do however call out plenty of suspects while seemingly relying on what other people to dig deeper. Planning to cause confusion? You do explain your reasons, but it hardly feels like your own.

- Hey wait a moment, I think im seeing the same post twice Shocked , oh well I have written quite a bit already so I might as well just post it


This is really her only contribution to the game. Points out that AlyG is acting scummy in many ways some new some repeats of other's points but amassed in one compendium. Then says she won't be posting much.

Seventh Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

I don't like the idea of lynching a claimed( semi-claimed?)power role today. Very little harm could come from letting him live another night. If he does turn out to be town, we get one night of benefits. There isn't exactly a shortage of suspects anyways. Lets just hang him tomorrow.

Defends Dr. BS stating that lynching claimed powerroles is bad. Then ends by saying let's just kill him tommorow a bit scummy there.

Eight Post:
Carrotcake wrote:


Quote:

Well Carrotcake said the exact same thing a page ago! Yet you don't seem to be attacking her. Either you overlooked it or you two could be a possible scum partnership.


That still does not answer why you did it. Are you saying that you simply echo my posts?

I love the way you try to shift blame around. I am scummy for something that YOU did ? And the person who attacked you for it is scummy too. Madness!

Quote:

Lets just hang him tomorrow.

I said that to somewhat satisfy the bloodlust against the doctor. I did not place a death date, as I am aware that through a night action he might have a chance to prove himself. The tone of that when I imagined it is probably much different than what you are thinking about right now. My apologies for not making it clear.
Ends up defending the fact that she said Let's just hang him tommorow. Gee imagine that.

Ninth Post:
Carrotcake wrote:

When was the last time we had a prod?
Could we please have prods if it has been a while. It seems vamp isn't posting on another game too, so he might have just walked out and quit. It would be great if we could get a replacement fast.
I don't believe in Lynch all Liars, as a guiltless lynch cant be good for the town. Originality might have just made a misinterpretation.

Asks for a prod after having only contributed 8 posts to the game. Doesn't realize vamp has already been replaced. Then says we shouldn't lynch liars.

This ends the words of carrotcake. While I don't find Carrotcake very scummy, how can anyone argue that she was decidedly pro-town? I seriously have more trouble wrapping my head around a vig wanting to kill at all than a vig wanting to kill Carrotcake.
[/quote

[vollkan]

Not in #793.

[vollkan]

The

previous posts

make more suspicious of Gemelli and Lucienne (she's in this game right?)

The idea is that her chronic lurking makes me uneasy.

*confused* Is this about posts or lurking? You said "the previous posts", implying that something that they had said was causative of a greater level of suspicion and yet now you are attributing it to her chronic lurking.

[vollkan]

Why dybeck 65% and Oman 60%?

If you read the next line I would not be writing this now:

Scummy
Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

I think that our situation is 6:3 and that the mafia are probably Gemelli, Oman and Dybeck. Meta, Oman is quite easy to be swayed by strong opinions. For that reason, I would personally favour a lynch of Dybeck.

At that point, I could not easily weigh them up in terms of scumminess: Both were suspicious for the same reasons they are now (though both have increased in my eyes) Oman's behaviour was, to an extent, consistent with how he normally plays and, given the confusion, I was prepared to grant some leeway (my own vote jumped around a bit too). In contrast, I saw dybeck stubbornly pushing what I saw as anti-town.

This is all purely historical stuff though: Oman has truly worn out my leniency and dybeck has done nothing to redeem himself.

Something else,
Lucienne's most recent post earns a

FoS

from me. After being missing for so long, she now pops up with this miniscule post. Her comments to shaft.ed and myself show that she clearly put no effort into this whatsoever. It looks like she has just skimmed through and selected a few lines which convey strange opinions when taken out of context.

@ Lucienne: I, personally, want to see some of your own opinion rather than just questioning out-of-context sentences from other people's posts (or QFTs).

[vollkan]

If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch.

I don't want to bury our heads in theory, but how does this work?

I think he means 5 town where Orig is SK (as in, shaft.ed is looking at the wcs). Thus, 5:3:1.
Mislynch = 4:3:1.
At night, in wcs = 2:3:1.
No Lynch.
At night, in wcs = 0:3:1.

Even if this doesn't happen precisely the situation is bleak regardless.
I think it is most likely Orig will be NKed and vigOrig will not kill.
As such, with a mislynch I think the most likely D3 is:
4:3 LYLO

Also, Lucienne, thanks for bringing up the

Oman 50%

thing. I knew I had forgotten a linking thing between them. (hence why I just bolded it).

[vollkan]

I assume that this is a typo, and that you are referring to my earlier listing of dybeck as 50% scum/town?

Yeah, sorry about that.

Completely understandable; I realize that my earlier support for him has formed a tenuous link between us.

However, it's worth pointing out that dybeck has been silent as far as my posts are concerned.

So: on the off-chance that I am removed from the game before he is, please don't take my confirmed alignment as any indication of his. I am pro-town; he may still be scum.

If anything, I would consider him ignoring your posts a scum-buddy tell.

[vollkan]

Agreed. However, it occurred to me that if he IS scum, he could potentially use my death to bolster a claim of his own pro-town alignment. I just wanted to raise a flag now in the event that this situation comes up down the road

No he couldn't. If you died and came up town it would certainly not bolster him saying he is pro-town.

This really smacks of you just trying to assert that you are pro-town. Maybe you are pre-empting a mafDybeck lynch and are trying to distance yourself. The point is, I don't like it.

[vollkan]

Maybe this is just a case of me being new. But I could forsee an argument -- not a strong one, mind you -- being made that "here's a confirmed pro-town player that supported me, so shouldn't you think twice about suspecting me?" I wanted to preemptively arm the town with my own thoughts on this in advance. Why do you find that scenario unlikely?

Because the very fact that someone is pro-town means their opinion is founded on lack of knowledge. It proves they were sincere in support, but nothing else. In contrast, a supporting scum player has no basis for subtle support (ie. simply ignoring) other than helping a player, though I concede that scum commonly buddy up to a townie. Nonetheless, you can usually separate buddying behaviour from actual scum relationship behaviour.

Gemelli, I get your point, and vollkan does to. He's just pointing out that what you've said has very little bearing on our opinions for the reasons he stated. He will go back and forth with you on this for eternity if you are up for it. That's just the way he is about the details. But please continue to speak your mind.

This is true. I know exactly what you are saying Gem, the point is that I think you are wrong.

What did you want me to say? I don't have any really strong opinions about you. You could be scum for all I know, but I think there are better lynch targets out there.

More wishy-washy behaviour from dybeck. Perhaps dybeck could do a bit of a reread of Gem and give us a comment?

I've been giving more thought to Vollkan's advocacy of the "give Originality free rein with our guidance" position. The more I think about it, the less I see how that strategy benefits the town.

As I see it, we have two goals for directing originality this evening:

(1) Improve the town's odds at hitting scum tonight
(2) Vet or refute originality's vig claim

As far as (1) goes, please remember that we are dealing with a player whose views are sharply in contrast with the rest of the town. This is the only player who does NOT include "No kill" in his top 4 list. This is a player whose #2 choice of targets is one of only two votes among the entire town for that player. And of course, this is a player whose judgement resulted in a town kill on night one.

Giving the mafia uncertainty as to what originality might do is a good thing. But the ONLY scenario in which a blanket "use your judgement" approach is superior than a "select from the top 4 choices on this list" approach is if the town fails to include a single mafioso in the consensus list. I find that scenario deeply implausible, assuming that we have 3 mafia in this game at the moment -- it's not like we are assembling these lists at random.

For (2), if originality has a free rein to pick whichever target he thinks best, the town loses its primary tool in being able to deduce originality's alignment. Our goal here is simply to validate whether originality is willing to comply with the town's direction. If we give him the option to pick anyone he likes, even assuming the onus of explanation after the fact, we are implicitly telling him that he can ignore the town's input.

Vollkan: you've mentioned that you want to leave the door open for originality to find a scumtell that everyone else has missed. For the record, I do not trust his ability to perform detective work on behalf of the town, and I'm suspicious as to why you are willing to extend this level of trust to him. As such, if he selects a target outside the town's top 4 list, I will be voting for him on the morning of Day 3, regardless of what his explanation might be.

1) The list probably improves our odds of hitting scum, except for No Kill obviously.
2) This is the one advantage of giving Orig a demand to NK. However, it does not prove his alignment and the opportunity cost is the uncertainty factor.

We need Orig to present the threat that he could kill any mafia tonight, that a mafia could be lynched tomorrow and that orig could NK a mafia on N3 in order to hold this against the mafia. Imagine if, for instance, the mafia are Lucienne, Gemelli and shaft.ed. In that case, there is no threat posed by Orig even if he is limited to No Kill, Dybeck, Oman and Elias.

If Orig is mafia, we have a SK who can only hope to win by getting rid of Orig and his buddies. Thus, I think an Orig NK will be a certainty even if he is demanded not to NK, because the SK needs to off the mafia. The worst thing for the SK would be for the mafia not to NK, thereby clearing Orig.

If Orig is SK, he cannot afford to risk himself being lynched (ie. straying from consensus) but, equally, he needs to get rid of mafia. As such, I would think that SKOrig is much more likely to NK than vigOrig, but is very likely to stick to consensus. If Orig is SK, he needs to get rid of mafia tonight to have a hope of winning. As in, if he does not NK, even if mafia is lynched tomorrow, Orig's NK on N3 is a certainty.

Thus, what we see here is that mafOrig will end up dead, vigOrig may or may not NK and SKOrig has to NK. If Orig survives and does not NK, he is most probably a vig.

My point is that SKOrig can very easily take out one of the top 4 and then get away with it. If we were to blanket ban Orig from NKing, we would therefore be able to know for certain that he is a vig tomorrow. That's one advantage of a blanket ban; I don't know how it measures up though and I will think about it some more.

Also, I need to clarify the "free rein" thing. All I want is for their to be the prospect that Orig could NK anyone and live. That is all we need. To deal with that, all we need to do is say that we will not autolynch Orig. Whilst his lynching may well be the outcome, that uncertainty is crucial. I do not want Orig to have free rein, but I do want him to present a threat to the mafia regardless of who they are.

[vollkan]

I've bolded this part of the quote because it's something you've said before, and I still don't agree with it. From a game mechanics point of view, it doesn't matter whether one, two, or all of the mafia are at risk. What matters is that the odds of removing a mafia member are significant.

Assuming that 3/8 of the current field are mafia, a purely random shot from originality gives a 37.5% chance of taking one of them out. If we only manage to get one mafia member into the consensus top 4 list, there is still a 25% chance if he takes a totally random shot -- something the Mafia can't ignore. If we get two mafia into the list, the chance is 50%. And as I've said, in this approach, in addition to providing solid odds of hurting the Mafia, the town gets the extra benefit of determining how closely originality is willing to adhere to the town's wishes.

Good point. However, this is assuming that the probability of him not killing is also 25%.

(1) Wouldn't the SK be just as interested in taking out a claimed tracker at this stage in the game? I don't think we can presume to know for sure that a non-orig SK would necessarily target him first.

Not true. The way things are going, it won't be long before a 3 person mafia is large enough to prevent a lynch. That all but guarantees a loss for the SK. AlyG is a threat, but the mafia threat is larger.

(3) I think we have to be very, very cautious about relying on this line of thinking. If the SK may indeed take out the tracker tonight, a mafiaOrig might decide with his buddies that a no-kill night is worth establishing orig as a "confirmed" pro-town role. And if the town isn't interested in protecting orig tonight, and he really *is* a vig, I'd assume that he would become the #1 target for both the SK and mafia alike. Why on earth would either of those groups want to leave a direct threat to their win conditions alive?

You just made me realise something VERY IMPORTANT:
SK Orig has effectively already lost. He is guaranteed to be NKed over the next 2 nights unless the three mafia are eliminated today, tonight and tomorrow. In which case he loses anyway because we have majority. If he fails to have mafia killed at any of these, he will die and lose.

This is important because it basically means that SKOrig has no incentive to stick to consensus at all. If we mislynch today, he can just kill at random to mess things up since he can be sure of his death. If we lynch mafia today, he will need to kill mafia to have a hope. In other words, we really bear no control over SkOrig

If Orig is mafia, then he faces the imminent prospect of being SKed. Thus, he will likely kill AlyG.

If we mislynch today and Orig is vig, a misvig can lose us the game. Thus, I think the best course of action in that event is a No Vig.
If we lynch mafia today, then Orig has license to act with due regard to our preferences. His lynch will be likely if breaches this, though not guaranteed.

[vollkan]

Edit:-

This is important because it basically means that SKOrig has no incentive to stick to consensus at all. If we mislynch today, he can just kill at random to mess things up since he can be sure of his death. If we lynch mafia today, he will need to kill mafia to have a hope. In other words, we really bear no control over SkOrig

To maximise his own survival, if SKOrig is going to NK anyone he will choose a likely mafia within consensus. However, if he is convinced the mafia are outside of consensus, he will have to breach it. Since I think the mafia are in consensus, this means that it will be very difficult to separate a vigOrig from a SKOrig if they lynch a person in consensus.

[vollkan]

vollkan... how can you be SO convinced originality is town that you're willing to fight the whole town just so that he gets his kill tonight?

And how can you advocate not lynching originality if he does another carrotcake? It's crazy!

Dybeck; you aren't listening to a word of what I say.

I am not "convinced" Orig is pro-town, though I consider it the most likely scenario. It is perfectly possible he is a SK (who has now well and truly lost the game), or he could be a mafia who claimed vig in the hopes of outing a real vig. Certainly, Carrot would not be my first choice for a vigging, but it is not ridiculously outlandish that a pro-town vig might target Carrot.

Furthermore, I do NOT want Orig to kill; if you bothered reading what I have been saying that should have sunk in by now. In fact, why don't I quote my most recent post:

If we mislynch today and Orig is vig, a misvig can lose us the game.

Thus, I think the best course of action in that event is a No Vig.

If we lynch mafia today, then Orig

has license to act with due regard to our preferences. His lynch will be likely if breaches this, though not guaranteed.

What you are saying regarding my position on this matter is complete garbage. Not once have I said that Orig should kill; I have simply been saying that we should not blanket ban outright. There is a tremendous difference which you are completely glossing over.

Finally, "how I can advocate not lynching Orig if he does another carrotcake?" I never said I would not advocate lynching him. I said I do not support a policy of autolynching.

I want to know something dybeck:

Do you think Orig is mafia or SK? In both scenarios, who would you peg as the scum?

[vollkan]

Originality, give me your word that you'll no-kill tonight, as almost everyone has said that they believe is the best idea, and I'll not mention your lynch again.

So, you don't actually care about Orig's alignment, you just don't want him to pose a threat to you?

You will notice at this time I had originality ranked as second scummiest between Oman and yourself. I will say this order has changed slightly in that I find originality more scummy than before since he has omitted No Kill from his list of four targets for this evening (Again one of the reasons I decided to create this method was to set people up for mistakes like this). I've reread Oman and am still not sure about him. He posts in spurts and while he's posting he makes scummy mistakes. It seems he realizes this and then just lurks for a while till everyone's opinion of him cools off. And you have been doing an incredibly good job of looking scummy recently with your usual misrepresentation of reality and making up events that never happened. I'm going to have to reorder my scummy list as:

1. originality
2. dybeck
2. Oman

This reminds me: Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig. I don't necessarily like keeping Orig alive today, but he has claimed and, if we lynched him and he came up vig, we would be truly kicking ourselves.

If Orig is mafia, then he is dead tonight anyway (by the SK) and thus will almost certainly carry out the mafia NK. Whilst a vig claim is unlikely, it might be used by a mafia to determine whether they have a vig or a SK against them.

If Orig is SK, then he has already lost and, thus, is a complete wildcard. This worries me, but I don't think Orig is a SK; a vig claim is just too suicidal.

If Orig is vig, then he will probably act properly tonight and follow consensus.

There is one possibility arising from this which interests me: If Orig is mafia and dybeck is SK. That would certainly explain dybeck's desperation to get rid of Orig. Assuming SK-Dybeck survives until tomorrow,
If we lynch a town today it becomes 4:3:1.
Mafia NK makes it 3:3:1
Dybeck's NK makes it 2:3:1 (basically mafia win) or 3:2:1 (messy)

If Dybeck is SK, then he knows for certain that Orig is mafia. Thus, dybeck simply HAS to get rid of Orig today in order to have a hope.

I had time between meetings today, and wrote a simple PHP script to analyze a mafia game thread. The script is designed to summarize all of the votes, unvotes, HoSes, and FoSes, based on those actions being bolded per the usual convention.

Wow. I'd love to get my hands on that somehow, though I understand if you want to keep it to yourself.

[vollkan]

Oh, and vollkan, I don't believe you considered the mafia-dybeck possibility in your post. If he is mafia, he will definitely try to lynch me or AlyG today. Pushing for AlyG would come off a tad too weird, as there is no good proof of him being scum, and a big chance of him being a town powerrole. I'm the only option left. And going for me is not too crazy, because my situation is rather dubious, and I am a more believable scum.

If he is mafia, he would be crazy to push for AlyG's lynch, yes.

I am not sure about what he would do regarding you, though. His behaviour is undoubtedly anti-town; ignoring everything and blindly pursuing the lynch of a claimed vig. Additionally, we have his misrepresentations and hints of buddyness with Gem.

On the other hand, however, I have this niggling concern that dybeck's actions seem almost too blatantly stubborn to be mafia and that his actions make more sense as a SK.

I'm going to throw my concern out here and see what people think: Dybeck is clearly anti-town, but I wonder if a mafioso would be this desperate. I mean, fine, a mafia dybeck would want you dead, but would a mafia really be willing to take the stance that dybeck is, which seems like it will result in his own lynching? Things would probably make more sense if dybeck is SK and Orig is mafia. This would fit with the fact that dybeck seems convinced Orig is mafia. Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning.

[vollkan]

I'll very likely release it to the public at some point. It needs a lot of fine-tuning first.

Awesome. I can imagine it might actually have a positive influence in terms of people being willing to replace into games, in that they don't have to memorise so much instantly.

We haven't talked much about the possibility of there being two mafias (5:2:2), rather than the 5:3:1 SK scenario that we've discussed most. I'd very much like to hear from the rest of you as to whether you think that is a likely scenario or not, and why. I've been looking over the last few pages with this possibility in mind, and come up with some disturbing hypotheses that I think support that scenario. But before I spill on those, what do the rest of you think?

It is possible, though I would venture to say that it is quite unlikely. In any event, your hypotheses could be valuable as a means of determining possible scumlinks anyway; as a sort of springboard.

[vollkan]

Town - there is absolutely no advantage to us in letting originality decide tonight's nightkill over the town deciding as a group.

There is no reason to think he knows better than we do, and every reason to think that he doesn't.

Dybeck - NOBODY is calling for Orig to decide over our consensus. NOBODY thinks he knows better than the rest of us.

Stop attacking strawmen.

I can't see why scum would kill him, when he's probably a good lynch prospect for tomorrow, especially since he'll probably be investigated tonight.

We can't rely on a cop investigation of him. I personally think that it is unlikely (though not impossible) that we have a cop given that we apparently have another investigative role ( AlyG).

Dybeck, you think Orig is mafia right? That means you must think there is a SK. The SK needs to get rid of Orig and his mafia buddies ASAP. Thus, Orig's NK is a near certainty. The SK cannot rely on Orig being lynched tomorrow, because if Orig sticks to consensus that is unlikely to happen. If we lynch Orig, in your scenario, that simply means that the SK is more likely to fire at random.

* The two players targetted last night were among the least active from a gameplay perspective. Spurgistan voted for orig in the random vote phase, switched to Dr BS in post 153, and then back to originality in 256, but made no other votes/suspicions. Carrotcake voted twice

(orig and AlyG).

The only other player with fewer than 5 "game actions" that was NOT killed on N1 was Elias: he made one random vote on orig, and then a vote on Oman in post 49, but took no other action.

That strikes me as very interesting (particularly the bolded bit).

Moreover, Spurg is an odd NK choice for mafia. Mafia tend to go for the most dangerous pro-town players, whereas Spurg really just looks like a non-contributing lurker.

This scenario is giving me concern, please discuss:
1) AlyG & Orig are mafia, most likely on their own.
2) They NK Carrot
3) On D2 they see that Spurg was killed also and that AlyG comes under tremendous threat of lynching.
4) AlyG panics and claims tracker with Orig to hopefully save themselves.
5) Orig reasons that it is unlikely a vig would have killed Spurg on N1 with no information
6) Orig claims vig
7) Dybeck (SK) realises that Orig is the mafia and that he needs to get rid of him to have a hope

The main problem here is stages 4 and 5; neither seems very sensible for mafia to do and is a near-suicidal gambit.

* Dybeck hasn't moved his vote from originality since post 404 (shortly after AlyG's tracker claim), and has only FoS'd vollkan since then.

Desperately seeking the lynch of Orig who he thinks is mafia....

[vollkan]

I'm still not sure about dybeck. He's almost playing like a caricature of what you'd expect scum to be. Blantantly twisting words, fabricating events, constantly exagerating people's positions, and even contradicting his own previous viewpoints with no explanation for the change at all. I keep thinking that there's no way scum would play this blatantly bad, but why would a pro-town player do all of this?

On the other hand Oman is playing what you'd expect of scum. Making more sublte mistakes and being more opprotunistic with his voting. And once the heat got on him he disappeares from the game.

It's frustrating. Dybeck is clearly anti-town in his behaviour; I don't think we need debate that. And, yet, he is playing in such a blatantly anti-town manner that it just makes no sense to me at all. I mean, it could be a strategy in itself, but this gets tangled up in layers of messy WIFOM and I'd rather not go there.

Oman is playing like classic opportunistic scum. We've established that well and truly.

I guess the reason I am favouring dybeck is that his actions make no sense to me from a pro-town whereas I can imagine a townie acting like Oman, though his disapperance is a cause for concern. T

hat said, if Oman really was frustrated and wavering in his views, one would think he would be posting a lot more in an effort to sort things out. The fact that he has now vanished suggests more strongly that he may be scum.

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

Dybeck, the "town consensus" is effectively the same meaning as "will of the town". What the hell are you talking about here?

@Lucienne: You FoSed Oman in your most recent post, despite not explaining why. You also FoSed dybeck with no explanation other than few little questions about things he had said. This is despite the fact that you promised "full suspicions" yesterday. I smell opportunism coming from you.

mFoS: Lucienne

[vollkan]

I'm asking him whether if "the will of the town" were to tell him exactly who to kill (or not) tonight, would he be happy to go along with the choice of player that was decided by "the concensus of the town".

The "will of the town" is the town's "consensus"....They mean the same thing.

Dybeck, a question:
Your NK list was:

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

And yet:

As I've said, I think orig is probably mafia. Too many people are defending him for at least one or two of them not to be informed.

SK a little bit less easy. Oman's "lynch anyone but me" attitude throughout the course of this game pins him as a good candidate.

If I had strong opinions about anyone else, rest assured that I'd have told you all about it by now.

But I'd hate for you to forget the core message that is "originality is obvious scum and we need to lynch him before he kills again".

The only player you are able to identify in the second quote is Oman, and yet in the list your prioritise the killing of shaft.ed and myself. As such, you presumably have some reason as to why you want shaft.ed and me killed over Oman. You've failed to explain this and I demand an answer.

Also, dybeck, do you think "the will of the town" should just tell Orig to kill shaft.ed or myself?

[vollkan]

Dybeck, you do realise that if Orig is scum he is not going to follow the consensus, right?

If Orig = mafia, his NK is pretty much guaranteed so he will kill anyone (most likely who he thinks is SK)
If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today, in which case he still needs to NK a mafioso to have a hope of winning. If we mislynch today, Orig has effectively lost so he will likely just kill at random.

As such, I can't quite work out why you would be so adamant about this consensus thing when you are utterly convinced Orig is scum.

Also, dybeck, if Orig were able to commit suicide (I am pretty sure that he can), would he take #1 position on your list?

[vollkan]

Holy crap, I just thought of a great reason why I can't be mafia. Bear with me here.

I think we can all agree I was a very big suspect for everyone at D1

Since AlyG tracked me, and I did the killing myself, the mafia would have to have picked me from their numbers to do the killing for that night

Now, why would they pick someone who others had reasons to suspect against? That would invoke the possibility of exactly what happened happening, me being targeted by an investigative role.

They would have picked one of them that was least on the spotlight on D1. Not someone like me.

This logic is circular and WIFOMish.

[vollkan]

So you intend to 'no kill' tonight?

Dybeck, we've been over this.

If he is mafia, he will kill anyone (aiming for the SK) regardless of what we say.

If he is SK, he will be desperately trying to kill the mafia. In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

If is town, he will follow consensus. By that, I mean there is a strong obligation for him to not kill, but he will not be auto-lynched if he does otherwise. This creates uncertainty. Uncertainty can only work in our favour because it makes Orig very likely to die by cross-fire.

[vollkan]

In fact, I really wonder if No Kill would even be more advantageous than a town kill.

This is interesting too. Do go on.

Very well.

That was in the scenario that Orig is SK.

Presuming it is 5:3:1, if we mislynch today it will be 3:3:1 assuming that the mafia do not kill Orig (Orig will obviously have to act on the assumption he is not killed).

Thus, if Orig killed a townie, he would drop things to 2:3:1. As such, it would be No Lynch unless Orig joined with the mafia against the town. Thus, the only possible lynch result would be 1:3:1. Then, all the mafia have to do is NK the townie to make it 0:3:1. Orig's Nk makes it 0:2:1 = Mafia win.

Now, if Orig did not kill, things would remain at 3:3:1. As such, a mafia lynch is possible, though it requires total unanimity among the town and Orig's vote on top of that. Of course, even if things did drop to 3:2:1, Orig is very likely dead anyway. The point is, though, that his loss is not guaranteed under this scenario, whereas it is in the previous.

Thus, in the event that we mislynch, a no kill is better for Orig than a town kill.

What about if we lynch mafia today?

That drops it to 5:2:1

Well, if Orig killed a townie, he would drop things to 3:2:1. Again, this requires town unanimity and Orig's vote. If a lynch were achieved (of mafia), it would become 3:1:1. On N3, Orig might then be lucky enough to NK the mafia and not be NKed himself (VERY unlikely) which would make it 2:0:1, town wins since we just lynch Orig. If Orig NKed a town, it would become 1:1:1, (if Orig lived) which does not help Orig at all.

If Orig does not kill, it becomes 4:2:1. Mafia lynch makes 4:1:1. If Orig were incredibly lucky, he might survive to next day at 3:0:1, but he loses anyway.

Hence, what we see here is that if we mislynch today, SK Orig benefits by not NKing. Whilst SK Orig has already effectively lost this game, he cannot hope to win unless he No Kills tonight if we mislynch.

If we lynch mafia today, then NKing a townie is not significantly more helpful for Orig than NKing a mafia.

Of course, NKing a mafia is always Orig's best bet, since they present the biggest threat to him immediately.

The only conceivable scenario where Orig can win is if it becomes 1:0:1, which is not a likely outcome at all.

[vollkan]

Apologies for addressing these in reverse order, but my previous post is necessary for my answer here.

And if we order him to NoKill, and he doesn't follow, then we know we've got a scum.

If we tell him he's allowed to kill more pro-town players, then he'll just come back tomorrow and say "Gosh, I was convinced xxx was scum. How careless of me." again, and we'll be ANOTHER pro-towner down, with no more info on originality, and we'll be at lynch or lose. Unless the other scum group forego originality, in which case we'll ALREADY have lost.

SK Orig has already lost effectively. Thus, even though no kill is more advantageous than town kill, his best bet will be to kill mafia.

It is true, therefore, that if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town.

The thing I don't get though, dybeck, is that for all your insistence on lynching Orig, your main concern seems to be preventing him from NKing. You seem to be pushing for us to mandate no NK from dybeck when you should know full well that dybeck will only oblige with that if he is town

[vollkan]

So in reviewing all of this I think it's best to direct orig for an absolute No-Kill. If he is mafia the SK will kill him anyway. If he is SK he's desperate, but I think the mafia would be likely to want him dead (but unfortunately maybe not tonight). If he's the vig he shouldn't be killing anyway. I realize this opens up the threat of losing our outed tracker, but I still think that SK/vig orig can pose enough of a threat the mafia to at least make that decision difficult for scum. And I'm still open for discussion if anyone has alternate numbers to run in the SK scenario.

I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK.

The earlier reasoning for demanding No Kill was incomplete, since it only emphasised the consequences of kills. Here, we have accounted for the possibilities.

Obviously, the numbers change if we lynch mafia today, but not so much that I think there is any substantial advantage to a kill.
If we lynch mafia,
We have 6:2 or 5:2:1.
With no Orig NK, D3 opens at:
5:2 or 4:2:1 (ignoring where orig dies, since he won't account for this)
With Orig NK of mafia, D3 opens at:
5:1 or 4:1:1
With Orig NK of town, D3 opens at:
4:2 (LYLO or 3:2:1.

In the case of Orig being vig, No NK puts us one mislynch off LYLO, as does a NK of mafia. Of course, the NK of Mafia makes us one lynch away from a win also, but the potential cost is to put us into LYLO.

The SK scenarios re much more variable.

I do have something to add:
The obvious thing which which we have all been overlooking is that the mafia do not know Orig's alignment either. Thus, they cannot be certain of his actions and, therefore, in that regard the fact that Orig NKed Carrot yesterday making his alignment even more ambiguous almost serves as a threat in itself. Orig could be SK to them and, thus, that prospect alone poses a threat to them, since it makes a mafia loss by the end of N3 quite a foreseeable possibility.

[vollkan]

I want to know if Orig is killing or not. Who he kills, as vollkan stated, should remain an element of wonder and mystery. But whether or not he kills is different.

Well, we have two options:
1) Outright ban
2) Consensus approach

1) has the advantage of apparently confirming that Orig is innocent. Obviously, though, if we ban it outright then SK Orig might decide to not NK as a means of ensuring his survival to N3 (because if he NKed he would be noosed). On the plus side, it guarantees that we will not lose by tomorrow morning. Another obvious cost is the fact that we will very likely lose AlyG.

2) has the immediate effect of making Orig a much more potent threat to the mafia. With 2), Orig's death is more likely than AlyG's. However, it also runs the risk of Orig NKing a town.

It is a debatable point, I think and there really is not a clear basis for one over the other. I think that given the uncertainty of Vig/SK already, 1 is probably sufficient, but I don't like losing the greater uncertainty of 2).

[vollkan]

I think that's a possibility, but not necessarily more likely than us losing originality. If they leave orig alive, the town essentially gets to make two lynch decisions on N3. If they leave AlyG alive, the town gets to hear the results of another track. Regardless of what we tell orig to do tonight, the Mafia will have a tough decision to make tonight.

Yes, this is very true. Killing AlyG is a gambit for them, since Orig could either run in their favour or against. Killing Orig is a "safe" option, effectively.

What's been bugging me about approach 2), though, is that through the consensus lists, the mafia has enough information to make an informed guess as to what originality is likely to do with this information.

If more than half of the players on the consensus list are town, and/or originality has been leaning in favor of killing a player that is NOT mafia, I would actually expect the mafia to advocate the "let orig do his thing" approach. This would set up a nice metagame strategy for D3: nightkill AlyG, hope that orig targets a town role, and then argue for his lynch.

This will put a lot of the D2 posts into a very interesting light once we arrive at D3. It's made me rethink at least one player's alignment after a brief skim of the consensus list discussions.

That's true, and the ability of scum to exploit this is one of the reasons why my more recent posts have been shifting from that second option. It just creates too many avenues of advantage for scum (both SKOrig and mafia). It's effectively a gambit on our part to follow this line, in light of the renewed analysis we got yesterday.

Hence, whilst option 2 could have significant pay-off, I am going to advocate No Kill since we have now determined that the risks of 2 outweigh the possible benefits. Indeed, the only benefit is a mafia NK, which still leaves Orig's alignment up in the air (a SK NK would, of course, prove Orig is mafia)

Oman, can you give me the link of a recent game you have finished as town, and one as scum? (Although since this seems to be your defence, I'm surprised you haven't done already).

Oh I've been hoping someone would say this. This game just finished with town win: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 237#710237

Mafia Oman gets dayvigged on D1 by me (a vig mason) after falling for a really easy trap. (Probably not the most useful game for analysing Oman, but I just want to rub it in )

[vollkan]

First up, thanks for the parser Gem. Great work.

Now, actual stuff.
Something about Orig's latests posts is rubbing me the wrong way.

I guess it is mainly the fact that he is relying so much on himself being pro-town as a justification for his actions.

His 100% conviction of me being scum keeps nagging me, since I'm the only one who knows for a fact that that is false. I don't know if I can explain it well, I guess it is about him making a blatently wrong decision, which leads me to suspect him even more.

dybeck is a way better choice for today.

I've been the main advocate of the dybeck wagon, and not even I consider him a "way better choice".

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

This looks like a potential bus.

Also, interesting that Oman thinks dybeck is obvobv scum, when he is not actually voting for dybeck or showing any strong suspicions.

At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote.

[vollkan]

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Confirm Vote: dybeck

[vollkan]

what is the difference between Gemelli's tool and the Find posts by link below?

What do you mean "find posts by"?

If you mean the second dialog box in Gem's tool, it is the same thing except it shows the posts by the particular player you are interested in in full.

[vollkan]

Hey I just tried that tool, its awesome. Does it just pick up bolded phrases?

That must be how it works. Otherwise it would pick up every post with "vote" in it

[vollkan]

No by find posts by I mean "display posts from previous" below this post.

Since when was that at the bottom of my screen?!

[vollkan]

I agree that dybeck is still looking dubious, but vollkan, assuming that dybeck thought that Oman was hammerable, I wouldn't describe his post as "chomping at the bit" to get him lynched. Wouldn't he have just gone ahead and voted without asking for input?

No. But I should say that I am going by my own experience. I made this blunder as mafia in Mini 436 and it took me a lot of wrangling to get out of it (though we ended up winning with no casualties). I had someone actually at L-1 and I asked for "Any objections?" as a means of trying to get agreement. People picked up on it and harangued me for "trying to get a consensus behind me".

Since then, I have considered people who run the "any objections?"/ "Shall I do the honours?" line to be scummy. Feel free to disagree with me here; if I am wrong then being told so will help me as a player.

If dybeck is mafia and especially if dybeck is SK, he has an obvious motivation for trying to ensure he is not culpable for lynches. The language of his post clearly conveys an eagerness which he had not shown for Oman until now:

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman,

because

in the event that we're wrong

in any combination,

we've pretty much managed to neuter

originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody

need

to say anything before I drop the hammer?

Maybe this is me being pedantic, but those phrases jump out. "Happier" with Oman from the guy who has been labelling Orig obvscum. I might have been alright with "equally fine" but the possibility of him being "happier" seems quite inconsistent.

Also, he deals with the "if we are wrong" and tries to buff it up as positive. This "positive" (which as I said in my last post, is non-existent) applies to any lynch, not just Oman's.

Finally, he asks if anyone "needs" to claim. He is waiting for objections. Again, my consensus-seeking tell.

Talk about sorry logic here.
Oman, what it comes down to is I want you to justifiably and reasonably explain your sloppy play as of late, and your comment about us doing such a good job hunting scum at a time where you were neck and neck for the most likely to be lynched trophy.

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked.

Again, dybeck, I demand that you point out another

SK candidate

. Before your argument was that Oman is SK, now he has swapped to gobsmackingly obvmafia. I don't like your certainty and I don't like your failure to explain your new views.

[vollkan]

Another SK candidate? I don't know... Lucienne maybe?

I don't pretend to have all the answers.

Well, you've been so damn certain about everything else when it suits you.

I'm just 100% convinced that originality is mafia, and a readthrough of his relationship with Oman is enough to convince me that Oman is probably scum with him.

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.
2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still. There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?
3) The Lucienne thing (from above): Where do I fit in all of this? You have me as your 3. NK preference above Lucienne. It doesn't make sense that you would peg her as the candidate despite you not favouring her NK over me.

And of course I'm waiting for objections. If people still want discussion time, we should have it.

Oman is at L-2. Your vote will not kill him. Rather than waiting for objections, explain to me why you think that it makes more sense to kill Oman than Orig (who you are "100%" certain of).

We have all the time in the world dybeck. I don't intend on moving any time soon.

Take a readthrough of Oman and orig's posts. They've both spent a lot of time talking about a lot of things, and have notably avoided talking about the issues that face each other.

Those issues being...?

[vollkan]

I see that no replacement was ever found for me. 2 of my games have ended and 1 was abandoned. I have also reread up to page 30. I'm willing to replace back into my old spot.

Heh. I just posted over in that replacement thread asking you to come back and now you have. I'm willing to have you back in.

[vollkan]

I cannot believe that people are letting you get away with this:
1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

No offence meant. But I have a better gut for finding scum than you. the evidence is all there in my posts, and my maths is good. I'm afraid that you've let the fact that you don't like me blind you to the idea that I might be town, which in turn has blinded you to the fact that i could be right about orig's claim. If you read back with an open mind, you might even see.

2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still.

Oh what a great idea! I never thought about pushing for Orig's lynch! Maybe I didn't make it very clear at any point so far, but Orig is scum and needs to be lynched. However, this town has made it abundantly clear that they have no interest in lynching Orig today. If I can't get a lynch on the man i'm 100% on, I'll settle for the man I'm 80% on.

There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?

You'd be surprised how, after yelling "ORIGINALITY US SCUM AND WE NEED TO LYNCH HIM" in every way you know how, FOR 30 PAGES, how much you don't feel the need to carry on.

3) The Lucienne thing (from above): Where do I fit in all of this? You have me as your 3. NK preference above Lucienne. It doesn't make sense that you would peg her as the candidate despite you not favouring her NK over me.

I don't know. I think you're possibly the third mafioso. Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Oman is at L-2. Your vote will not kill him. Rather than waiting for objections, explain to me why you think that it makes more sense to kill Oman than Orig (who you are "100%" certain of).

At risk of repeating myself, but yes I agree. It doesn't make more sense at all. We should be lynching Originality for being clear scum. However, Oman is probably scum too. I'm sorry that I'm the only one that sees any merit in lynching originality, but after 30 pages, I give in. I've managed to neuter him for tonight, having made him promise there'll be no more strangulations, and I'm going to have to settle for that.


And hey Elias, welcome back!! I thought you were gone forever

1) Way to not address the 100% certainty thing.
2) But there is no hurry. If you're 100% certain then articulate why. I am open to the possibility of you being town and Orig being scum, but you have failed to make a convincing case for why we should lynch Orig today.
3) So I am anti-town now?

I'll make you a deal dybeck: You lay out a case right here and now which details precisely why Orig is such obvscum and I will stop suspecting you for that. All I want is to know the facts which lead you to 100% certainty.

I can't say for certain what effect that will have, but it is certainly the foundations of my suspicion on you.

[vollkan]

It would be unreasonable for me to tell someone with experience in this game that they are "wrong" for playing a certain way. But FWIW, I view this game as one of consensus-building. This may be the new-guy perspective thing again, but I am currently more inclined to view actions taken arbitrarily and without discussion as scummy. I do see where you are coming from here -- mafia *should* certainly try to blend into the mob, and asking for consensus is one way to do that -- but I think that you could try to argue scummy behavior regardless of whether someone acts independently OR tries to build consensus. (Or lurks, or posts too much, etc. etc. Scum can and will do all of those things.)

This is more of a theory point than anything, so let me elaborate.

Arbitrarily hammering is scummy, too. You are absolutely correct about that. The thing is, that I find it scummy when people say "Any objections to me hammering?" I am much more comfortable with "Is this lynch appropriate?" or something to that effect (though I realise that this is now voided for this game because I have revealed my preference).

The former ("objections") I do not like because it is effectively trying to deny blame IMHO. Of course, a scum would be idiotic to say "But none of you objected!" but the point is that at some level this seeks to reduce the person's individual culpability.

Again, dybeck, I demand that you point out another SK candidate . Before your argument was that Oman is SK, now he has swapped to gobsmackingly obvmafia. I don't like your certainty and I don't like your failure to explain your new views.

I agree that this was a rather dramatic shift, and that it should have been prefaced by an explanation. But vollkan, this part of your post really bothers me. For the past few pages, you have been arguing that you think that the most likely scenario is that we do NOT have an SK, and that originality is a vig. Your post is inconsistent with that perspective, and the shift came without comment -- since this is the same behavior that you are criticizing dybeck for, surely the irony is not lost on you. Coupled with the loaded word "demand", this raises suspicion flags for me.

You've completely misunderstood me.

I asked dybeck to point out another SK candidate because he had said that Oman was obvmafia with Orig whereas before he was saying Oman was SK. That has no bearing on my own view.

1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

Irony alert! The words "always" and "never" reflect a 100% certain perspective. This reads to me like "do as I say, not as I do."

I don't follow you...Are you saying it is ironic that I am saying that townies should never be 100% certain?

If so, I disagree. Townies are an

uninformed

majority. At best, they can only ever get a very strong idea of things.

Would it be ironic if I said "vanillas always have no powers"? No. That is a basic fact about the game, same as townies being uninformed.

There is a significant difference between saying "I am certain X is scum" and saying "Townies should never be 100% sure"

The other thing that's bugging me about the last few pages is that you stated in post 953 that you were on the fence between Oman and Dybeck, and wanted to "wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote." Oman posted a relatively content-free post in 956, and then in 957 you posted a re-read on 951 -- this is where you first demanded that dybeck identify an SK -- that ended with a confirm vote on dybeck. To me, this feels a lot like smoke and mirrors: focusing discussion back on your primary target to pull attention away from Oman.

Dybeck is certainly acting scummy now, and I will be the first to admit that my initial read on him was naive. But vollkan, over the last 2-3 pages, I am getting the nagging feeling that you are not being objective in how you treat Oman. FoS: Oman (yes, that's a vote AND an FoS; that's how I roll) and FoS: vollkan until Oman actually addresses the points that shaft.ed has been bringing up, and until vollkan indicates whether or not he is satisfied with those answers.

Regarding #953, I was aware as I was writing it of how it could be interpreted. I never said that I was going to vote Oman if he did not post to my satisfaction; I simply said I was not going to change until he checked in.

I thought I had made myself clear: I think Oman is scummy and I think dybeck is more scummy. I would be happy with an Oman lynch, but right now we have no pressure of deadline or anything so I have no reason not to pursue the line I prefer.

I know that if Oman is lynched and comes up scum, I will very likely be accused also, but that is not going to alter my behaviour.

As for Oman's following of me with his votes, I have absolutely no idea why he is doing it and it worries me considerably. My gut feeling is that he is trying to tie himself to me pre-empting his lynch.

@Dybeck:
Reading your latest post, I detect a few main points:
1) He chose CC who was not scummy
2) Strangulation
3) Vig being the most sensible claim
My responses:
1) I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed. The problem is, that it is not impossible to conceive of a vig targeting CC. I have known vigs to have done some pretty stupid things.
2) This will mean more for me after tonight. The thing is, some mods choose the MOs at random. I would note here that on page 1, the N0 kill was done by "knife in back". Now, that may just be for flavour, but the point is that I would want to know whether the MOs are constant before making judgment on this. And, even then, this is "Mafia on a Plane". No guns makes it far more likely for a vig to strangle.
3) Here, it depends. Vig is a bad claim for a SK because it is certain suicide. An RB claim, whilst notoriously bad, would safer because it would make the mafia more inclined to target AlyG. On the other hand, vig is also bad for a mafioso because the mafioso does not know if there is a vig or not, running risk of a counter.

Again, dybeck, I find this case seriously wanting. Rather than re-running over the same ground again and again, please address my rebuttal. If you are serious about Orig, then don't get frustrated, explain why I am wrong.

Now, Elias:

Earlier in the discussion, we had talked about vig being a suicidal claim for a SK ... which is the main reason that some of us have been willing to entertain the vigOrig scenario as a possibility.

I strongly disagree with this argument. It's clearly wifom in nature. If the town think this, they accept him as vig. I would also say that vig is actually a pretty good claim for a caught SK. If town accepts him, he may even receive doc protection.

I cannot envisage any doctor protecting Orig tonight when AlyG is much more likely to be a pro-town power role. Additionally, it doesn't matter if the town accepts Orig because the mafia will almost certainly NK him.

Assuming he's SK, he was caught. His options were to fight the claim, make a wierd claim, or claim vig. If town believes him, he might get doc protection, which obviously makes the vig claim better then fighting Alys claim.

Again, I think RB would have been more viable. I know that if I was in that situation as a SK, I would not claim vig; I would claim RB because it would make me less likely to be NKed by the mafia.

This ignores the fact that he can simply no kill as SK. Also, we could just lynch him now and ASSURE that there are no kills from a second party.

If SKOrig does not NK tonight, even if he does survive he is completely screwed. It does not clear him entirely, but it does provide a strong case for him being town. I would rather not lynch him and have him likely pull cross-fire from AlyG.

As I posted earlier... any other claim but vig results in him being lynched before he even gets a chance to get to the possibility of a nightkill.

Doctor claim fails because his target died.

Cop claim fails because he'd obviously be counter-claimed, and he'd be lynched.

Tracker claim fails because we wouldn't have two.

Townie claim fails because he had a night action.

His only slim hope of survival was a vig claim, which would explain why he was at the site of the murder with a garotte wire in his hand.

Anything more exotic would have been laughed out of court.

His only real alternative was roleblocker - but then, just like vig/SK, this is a role that's as often scum as it is town. If he had to make a claim of a role that cast aspersions over his alignment (which he obviously did), he would be ten times better to choose the one that tallies with the fact his target died.

It may look like a suicidal claim, but it was clearly his only chance of surviving the day, let alone the night.

Put yourself in the position of SK/mafia originality. What would YOU have claimed?

I agree with you on doc, cop and townie but NOT on RB.

I would have claimed RB. It does not guarantee safety from lynch, but it is far less likely to be NKed than a tracker.

[vollkan]

Personally, I would've myself selected Vig, to protect myself from future troubles down the road that claiming an ability you dont actually have might cause. Claiming another killing role at least allows you to carry out the actions that the town asks of you.

I hadn't thought of that.

Hmm, but a lynch would be uncertain if you did not carry out the town's will because it would be impossible to verify unless you were ordered RB a doctor and that doctor's target was NKed or similarly if you were ordered to RB a cop and they got a result. Whereas, NK is almost guaranteed with a vig claim.

I'll agree with you however, that for now, killing off Orig may not be the best move, as smart scum would pick him off in the night. The problem I see with this strategy, is what happens if mafia doesnt kill him off? If mafia is counting on us to lynch him the next day, then we might have a problem. (also, doc & mafia will play a wifom game tonight anyhow).

I can't imagine the mafia relying on us to lynch Orig tomorrow, particularly given the fact that vigOrig should coalesce with our No Kill demand. That places them at the prospect of losing two members on D3 (which is a loss for them if we lynch mafia today)

As for the wifom game, AlyG is a factor in it as well.

Vollkan, would you be willing to lay out your complete case on Dybeck so far? Shaft.ed, could you do the same for Oman?

Sure.
First up, let me say that dybeck did not strike me as particularly suspicious D1. He was 2nd on ryan (confirmed townie), but that does not mean too much to me.
Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.
2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything
3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.
4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon
5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)
6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.
7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia
8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)
9)

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

10) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

[vollkan]

I'm sorry that you have to build a case based upon lies and misrepresentations. It actually demeans you as a player, because I think you're more than capable of getting me to lynch -1 without doing so.

I'm writing this as I read through your post; so I am expecting some major evidence of misrepresentations since you have said this.

1) Fair cop. I over-reacted. Saying "Gosh! A serial killer!" is a huge SK tell. In fact, it's the biggest SK tell. However, I've already retracted my assertion. Shaft.ed has looked pro-town all day since then and I think we need to get over this.

You can't just retract something that you were so definite about and seriously expect the rest of us to just accept that and move on.

2) Wanting to lynch mafia over lynching the SK is NOT anti-town. This is blatant falsehood, as anyone who read my posts about it at the time will have seen me say. If we lynch the SK today, we are in Lynch or Lose for the remainder of the game. If we can find mafia - we should do it. It's not anti-town to say so.

Let's not forget here that the Orig thing had not surfaced when you made the allegations against shaft.ed. This is important.

5:3:1

Now....Mafia do not know who the other NKer is (remember, Orig has not claimed). This means that the mafia's likelihood of NKing the SK is very low.

Maf lynch = 5:2:1
--MafNK town = 4:2:1 (P = 5/6)
----SKNK maf = 4:1:1 (P = 2/7) P = 0.23

----SKNK town = 3:2:1 (P= 5/7) P = 0.59

--MafNK SK = 5:2:0 (P = 1/6)
----SKNK maf = 5:1:0 (P = 2/7) P = 0.04
----SKNK town = 4:2 (P = 5/7) P = 0.11

SK lynch = 5:3
--MafNK town = 4:2 P = 1

What do we notice? Well, the only outcome of lynching mafia which is not very messy (3:2:1 or 4:1:1) or LYLO (4:2) is 5:1 which has the oh-so-remarkable probability of 4%.

The most important thing, however, is that the most likely outcome of lynching a mafioso is 3:2:1.

In other words, you were being misleading by saying that a mafia lynch is much better, because 3:2:1 is just as bad if not worse. Fine, it is not auto-loss, but it is one off lylo at best.

3) Another lie. I'll drop the hammer on either of Oman or originality. I don't think it's wrong at all. Unless anyone has any objection.

I fail to see the relevance to my 3) which was:

3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.

You seem to be addressing the number 3) I had within 8.)

I will assume that is what you have done.
You said before

I might actually be happier with Oman, because

in the event that we're wrong in any combination,

we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

The combination of the "anybody need..." and the "in the event we're wrong" makes it look like you pre-empting Oman coming up town and you are trying to absolve yourself by justifying the hammering wrt Orig not NKing and by asking for consensus.

4) You infer that I haven't already said that I think orig will kill tonight. I've said in very clear terms that I think he'll kill, and more specifically, that I think he'll kill me. I think we should lynch him before he gets a chance. However, at least we can lynch him if he does. His group are either neutered, or caught.

Again, my 4) was:

4) Dybeck's
Quote:
it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday
when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon

You have not addressed this.

You addressed the 4) within 8.)

Assuming that,
Show me where you said it is likely he will still NK. If you do, I will drop this point.

5) You posted reasons why orig can't be scum? For real?!

YA RLY! And you still haven't rebutted them (hint: read post #993)

6) ORIG IS SCUM! I'M RIGHT TO HAVE A SINGULAR FOCUS!

Oh dear...We know there are 2 NKing groups. Hence, being singularly focussed is a BAD idea. Did it not cross your mind that you could be wrong about Orig and just MAYBE it might be sensible to keep an eye out on other things as well? Even if you were dead set on Orig, there was still a whole other scumgroup that you should also have your eyes out for.

The only reason for a singular focus would be if you are scum trying to off Orig who you assume is scum.

7) Another lie. I'm relatively certain Orig is mafia. And I've said this a lot.

Not a lie, a typo. SK and mafia are in the wrong place. It was effectively what I just said above about the second scumgroup thing.

8.)-10)

Wishy-washy attitudes? Too much certainty? What would you have me do?

I'm afraid I don't have any strong read on anyone other than orig and AlyG. I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

I love the fact that at the start of this you make it look like I am making no sense, but you then go on and address exactly what I meant.

Until VERY recently you were vague and had little to no opinion on anybody except Orig and AlyG (to a lesser extent)

Perhaps posting "100% certain misled you". There's a chance I'm wrong, but it's less than 0.5%. To the nearest percent, there's 100% chance orig is scum.

I disagree. I would peg Orig as 65% likely to be scum. Sometimes more, sometimes less; but this gives an indication of my view.

We found him killing a townie, for god's sake. Your continued defence of him just makes you look stupid, imo.

Defence...? Me being unconvinced by your case is not a defence. There are arguments for Orig being vig which you have not dealt with and I have blasted the arguments for scum you have presented.

I am not defending Orig; I am simply stating the facts as I see them and am critically analysing your rather narrow arguments.

[vollkan]

Could you restate your arguments for Orig being vig please?

Because all I'm seeing is desperate attempts to get me lynched.

Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum

[/b]
First up, I do not believe Originality is a certain vig. I said just before, I am 65% thinking he is scum. My problem is with your stubbornness here in continually raising bad arguments for Orig being scum and ignoring my rebuttal and my arguments to the contrary.

"But Orig killed CC" [/b]
1) Vigs make stupid mistakes. I've seen stupidity from vigs before
2) CC was not obv town. I would not have vigged her, certainly. But, she was not an active contributor and if I felt suspicious of her I might well have vigged her.

"Vig is the safest claim for a SK/Mafia in Orig's position"

If SK,
You need to survive. Thus, claiming vig, the most likely role for mafia to try and NK, is suicidal and therefore very very unlikely.

A RB claim, however, would be safer. True, RBs can be scum, but a lynch would not have been certain if he claimed RB. A NK would be very unlikely given the significant greater risk of a tracker (AlyG)

Elias's argument about how he might have claimed vig since at least that way he could obey the town is not very good because

a lynch would be uncertain if you did not carry out the town's will because it would be impossible to verify unless you were ordered RB a doctor and that doctor's target was NKed or similarly if you were ordered to RB a cop and they got a result. Whereas, NK is almost guaranteed with a vig claim.

If mafia,
Orig might claim vig, I concede, to determine whether or not there is a vig or a SK (ie. by testing for counter-claims) but I really do not think that a mafioso would take this sort of risk when a comparatively safe RB claim was there.

It is, of course, possible that SK/Mafia Orig just didn't think through this as I have and that he claimed vig as a complete blunder.

For these reasons, I do not think we can state he is obv scum.

The best arguments I see pointing to Orig being scum are these by Elias:

Alright. The AlyG claim? I believe it. Orig admitted to targetting CC, so it's pretty obvious Aly is telling the truth. On the other hand, I find Originality very unlikely. Firstly, I find Originality's argument that he had a gut feeling against carrot day 1, VERY unlikely, since he did not ONCE express any suspicions on CC. The bulk of Origs content is attacking lurkers..if he had suspicion of CC, wouldnt it make sense that he'd say so instead of attacking lurkers? The fact that he had other suspicions and went after lurkers makes me think that he is probably trying a little too hard to appear protown. Second, I find his claim that he killed on gut feeling night 1 very hard to believe. Even if it were his first game as vig, its certainly not his first on the site. I'm certain he knows that lynching on gut is bad for town, so why would he NK on gut? I just dont see why a protown vig would kill on so little...

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

This definately doesnt sound like someone who had a gut feeling that he was scum.

Also, there is this post (368):

I think this hasn't been brought up yet, but do we know for sure which death is mafia kill and which is the sk? I don't know if theres a set pattern here that a certain type of death will tell who killed who, so is there anything im missing here?

In this post, he 1) assumes there is an SK, not a vig, and 2) helps spread the opposite of his later claim by speculating about the SK's killing method. It seems very suspect.
So yeah. Orig is your SK, pretty sure he isnt a vig. His claim doesnt hold water.
vote: originality

See, the fact that Orig seeks to use CC's death against AlyG is VERY interesting. It is the most stupid sort of tactic scum can do (the wifom in relying on NKs as arguments is something all know about). One bout of stupidity would correspond with him claiming vig in stupidity and his latest weird stuff

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'll admit here a major concern which has been considerably exacerbated since Elias started and since I have begun analysing all of this dybeck v Orig in more detail:
That I may be analysing Orig by my own standards of behaviour. If we take everything collectively and import a certain standard of newbishness to him, I am almost inclined to call him fairly obvious scum and I might almost be inclined to vote for him.

On the flip side, if I imagine him thinking this thing through, his actions in claiming make no sense for scum.

See, the only thing I see as supporting Orig being vig is the fact that he claimed vig (as stupid as that sounds). If he had claimed RB, I think I would actually have slapped my vote on him (and doesn't this just enter complete and utter wifom!)

I really think we need to look at Orig more seriously in light of this and I would appreciate some commentary on my way of thinking about this little hurdle.

[vollkan]

No, I understood that. But I found it disengenuous that you were continuing to press Dybeck with a question that

you had already answered

to your own apparent satisfaction earlier in the thread. I can see this as a scumhunting tactic, but the number of times you repeated the question -- and the urgency that you seemed to be placing on his answering it -- struck me as odd.

Do you mean that "I had already answered" or that "dybeck had already answered"?

Either way, my rationale for asking dybeck was simple: I suspected he was being opportunistic in going after Oman once he was assured that Orig would likely pose no threat to him.

I want to add that I have found your posts to be well-reasoned and logical throughout the game. If I am pushing on you a bit lately, it's because I have read games where you played as scum, and you come across just as well-reasoned and logical in them. I feel that I was falling into a trust pattern a little early in the game, and have since decided to challenge my own earlier preconceptions and test new hypotheses.

That's fine. I have been wondering for a while now about how long it will take for someone in one of my games to do a meta-check on me and realise that, for some bizarre reason, I never seem to get suspected no matter what my alignment.

* Dybeck has tended to use loaded terms like "obvious," "100%," and "positive" in stating his opinions.
* When Dybeck changes his mind on a given point, he does not post retractions or even "I've changed my mind." He shifts to a newly-certain stance on the new position without comment.
* Dybeck has stayed focused on Originality through most of D2 and failed to comment on other players until very recently.

He has switched from arguing that he is a SK to arguing that he is mafia.

All of the evidence vollkan's posted seems to fall into those three categories. Is that a fair summary?

The bolded bit is wrong. Dybeck never did that. It was the fault of a typo of mine.

The rest is pretty accurate for the recent stuff. Let me explain my read of it:
The use of certain terms is something I associate with haste. Dybeck is "100% sure" and "positive" about this. The purpose of such words is to make your opinion stronger and, presumably, to persuade others. I tend to always use "likely" / "probably" and it is very rare that I will be definite on things, because I see certainty as something which no townie should have.

The mind changing is something that bugs me for the simple reason that there was no need for him to change. He could have kept pushing Orig if he was so sure (as well as actually dealing with my arguments and rebuttal); there was no deadline. Instead, once Orig's NK is gone, he jumps over to Oman who he thought was the SK until fairly recently (remember, dybeck was adamant about not lynching the SK).

It's a good point, and one that I raised myself way back in post 609. I'm shaking my head that that post was one of the reasons you stated in post 663 for putting me at #3 on your suspect list. Adopt, adapt, and improve, I suppose.

Er...my #663 was

Crossed with Gemelli.

Gemelli wrote:

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.


No decision should be made in my opinion. We can (and I have) directed Orig to our most desired candidates but we should not give him an absolute instruction.

Gem wrote:

Vollkan wrote:

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.


I refuse to support directing Orig. If he is mafia, there is a hidden SK who can only hope to succeed here by defeating the mafia.

Gem wrote:

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.


Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

Gem wrote:

I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck


What specifically? Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK. If he is mafia, he has motivations for both. His reasoning is deeply flawed and, as such, it looks like he is grasping to get rid of Orig.

I don't see where you mention your own standards....

Now, shaft.ed:

My uneasiness started with this post where a 're-read' triggered a new interpretation of dybeck's earlier post.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Confirm Vote: dybeck

When I was reading this I was seriously picturing a gentile Southern lady fainting with her hand on her forehead following some transgression of manners. This really felt like an overdone attempt at riling up some momentum for a dybeck lynch.

What really stood out to me was that it immediately follows Oman's content-free vote for dybeck. And it follows this quote

At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote.

where, you're waiting for Oman to "check in" and note this comes immediately after the dybeck post that all the sudden is "chronically setting off all sorts of bells."

You've also managed to completely ignored Oman's incredibly sketchy vote for dybeck. in fact to this moment you have yet to even comment on it.

I did exactly what I said I did: I reread dybeck's post and had problems with it. I know how it looks, but I really don't care because my explanation for my behaviour was true and the points on dybeck are wholly valid.

I never said "I will change my vote if Oman does not post to my satisfaction". I simple said I wanted to hear from him before I would consider doing anything. Oman came, I read his post, then I read dybeck's, then I posted.

As for my non-mention of Oman's vote; it has been deliberate. I've been waiting for him to post regarding it before I step in. Since it has now been raised by you (like I should have thought otherwise) I will now explain my actions.

The reason is this:
I have made that same error myself in other games as town and scum and I have usually had to cover it up by re-posting suspicions to justify another vote. Oman just came out and said he had messed up. I did not want to say this and jeopardise your case against Oman for his vote (which I entirely agree with), since he could then just rely on what I had said.

In fact you've even attempted to cover for him.

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

I've been playing with you in two games for two months now and have never seen you cover for anybody except Dr. BS who understandably needed covering. Importantly there was actual evidence to back up your statements defending Dr. BS. But this comment was quickly shot down by Gemelli a couple posts later.

I had not actually checked Oman's recent posts thing. I was judging by his inactivity in another game I am in with him and his relative inactivity (relative to how much he usually posts).

You've already called him scummy on many occasions for maintaining his desire to lynch orig. Now he is scummy because he didn't maintain his desire to lynch orig?

Yes. I think dybeck's case on Orig is complete garbage, but if he was sincere about it he would at least stick to his guns. I suspected him well enough when he was pushing his Orig line, but his switch to being prepared to hammer Oman compounded on it.

So to conclude, I know these slip-ups are very minor compared to things that dybeck and Oman are consistently doing, but I've come to know vollkan plays at a higher level than this. These moves just don't compute in my mind. I'm a bit worried now of an Oman/vollkan scum pairing, but at least vollkan has been open in stating this is a possibility due to his recent play. I guess what it comes down to is IGMEOY

I don't think I have slipped up at all. I fully understand that my actions could be construed as scummy and that if Oman comes up scum I will very likely be tied to him. As I have been saying consistently, I am suspicious of Oman and would be happy with his lynch. However, it would be wrong of me to let this day end without persisting in analyzing dybeck and orig because I strongly believe one of those 3 is scum. I have been playing to par with my usual standards and everything I have done has been deliberate.

[vollkan]

Now a follow-up to Orig's most recent post:

1

As if I'd let suspicion fall into me from my kill. I suspected carrotcake since the beginning, but didn't want to say anything D1 otherwise it would have been obvious who killed him last night.

2

And for the record, yes it is my first game on the site.

3

And those two posts I made were also to make seem as if I didn't know what was going on. Pretty routine if you ask me.

4

By the way, if I was the SK I'd want the town to think that there was a vig, to not draw attention to the fact that there is an SK, duh. I was just going on with the idea at the time, if I went HAY GUISE PRETTY SURE ITS NOT AN SK ITS A VIG it would totally mark me out for the scum.

1) If you were so suspicious of CC that you were prepared to kill her N1 why would you even consider distancing yourself from it? This doesn't make sense at all
2) Excellent. 75% and a

FoS

3) Alright. If you were vig, you would want to fly under the radar. I can see a newb vig doing this, but it is still distancing from the kill.
4) Oh yuck; an "If I were a...". Elias is right "wifom much?"

[vollkan]

I meant that you seemed to have determined YOUR OWN answer to that question prior to asking it. I'm not seeing how his answer would have affected your view of his opportunism.

Oh okay, I follow you now.

His answer was important to me because I wanted to know whether he had simply moved Oman from SK to mafia without giving any thought to the players outside of Oman and Orig. It was a continuation of my problem with his singular focus. Orig was now crippled so I was trying to work out if dybeck was actively hunting or if he simply moving to the next easiest target. If he had given a full explanation of who he thought was the next likely SK, I would not have minded.

Sorry, should have quoted the relevant pieces of the posts.

Where I originally put forward the idea that origMafia may have claimed vig due to a rushed decision:
...
It's not a major deal by any means. I was mostly laughing quietly to myself that the stance I took at the start of the game got me branded as possibly scummy, and now we're all discussing it as a likely scenario. I know that much of your suspicion came from me questioning the case vs dybeck, but it was that piece of your post that came back to me after Elias's post spurred the latest discussion tangent.

The thing is, when you said it was a rushed decision, I couldn't see any evidence for Orig being likely to make such mistakes.

Elias has now brought up those few really bizarre posts by Orig which suggest that he may have been making poor decisions.

So, whilst the opinion you gave looks more valid to me now, at the time I didn't see enough cause to think it probable.

[vollkan]

1

Elias, those were the subjects going around at the time. I don't just ignore things that I'd rather not talk about, like our friend dybeck here does.

2

Also, remember when AlyG didn't say a word against me till his claim? Yea, thats the same thing happening. We didn't want attention to our roles.

1)

If you didnt want attention, why did you address those two (non)issues at all? No one else was talkgin about them.

And now

Elias, those were the subjects going around at the time.

These two are plainly at odds with each other. Nobody was talking specifically about who had committed the NKs; they were non-issues. Obviously, they were important, but Orig is patently wrong to say that they were the "subjects" as justification for his weird "distancing from the kill" posts.

I don't like the way Orig tries to segue this whole thing back to dybeck either...It looks like he is trying to get the heat off himself and back onto dybeck.

2) No power role wants to be identified; that's very true. However, your posts suggested that you didn't find CC suspicious. Indeed, you said:

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

[vollkan]

Now, I could have understood if you said this at the time as a smokescreen sort of thing, but you NEVER retracted these or explained them. [You just concocted the thing about you having a "gut feeling".

I don't get what your trying to say there.

Yes, it was a smokescreen

thing, that's what I've been saying.

I think you just slipped
Let me explain:

Uh... This is weird, because carrotcake was pretty quiet imo. I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him...

So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

If it was a smokescreen, you never pointed this out to us. When the issue of why you killed Orig was raised, you simply said that you killed CC on a "gut feeling" without referring to these earlier statements and explaining what this was all about.

If you had said those things as a brilliant maneuver to distance yourself from CC's death, you would certainly have thought to have explained them when you were making up why you chose to kill CC. That's what I meant by "you NEVER retracted".

The AlyG thing is important. If this was a smokescreen tactic, the LAST thing you should have done is attempt to use it to embroil another player in suspicion. That is completely anti-town because you are effectively fabricating evidence.

Now, it is true that you then went off on a Dr. B tangent and dropped blaming AlyG, but then later in #389 you said again:

Alright. I dunno about AlyG, it seems the major thing against him is the carrotcake bit, and other then that you guys are pretty much just making stuff up.

When you finally got outed you said:

I claimed carrotcake's death must have scared a scum to get suspicion off me. It was damn obvious carrotcake didn't scare anyone.

I didn't find Oman suspicious. He wasn't. He seems pretty town to me. As I said, it was just a vibe I got from carrotcake. And he wasn't helping town much at all. He seemed pretty confused about the present happenings most of the time. And I must admit, I was offset by why he kept his vote on me for so long in the beginning without one explanation. He voted during the joke stage, and kept it there while my wagon was forming. Only changed a while later when it had mostly died off.

Here you admit that that you said Carrot was scum to get suspicion off yourself (*blink* Why would we suspect YOU for that?)and you clearly just bypass what you were trying to do wrt AlyG.

[vollkan]

Shocked

I feel like I should be going "Yeah! See!" but I don't understand.

Don't you get cocky for an instant. It's precisely that your case was so dodgy, repetitive and narrow that I am doing this now.

Let me explain:
Elias's stuff put a new spin on things for me and made realise that, by and large, we have let Orig get off rather lightly for many things. Furthermore, Orig's latest posts have been ringing bells for me. As such, I am subjecting him to a patented

interrigation

[sic]. If he is scum, I intend to scrape it up

[vollkan]

questions about dybeck case...

Now, the case:
1) Dybeck's weird

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

His certainty here in going after one of the least scummy players here really looked odd to me. Note a massive tell in itself, but I just don't like it.

Whoa. That is wierd. But I'm not sure its a scumtell. Scum wouldnt have knowledge on who's sk, and what advantage does scum have in trying to bring attention to one of the least suspicious players?

None that I can think of...that's why I said it struck me as odd but not a massive tell.

If dybeck is town, I'd put it down to extreme over-eagerness.

If scum, possibly an attempt to direct the other scumgroup to kill shaft.ed..but this is pure conjecture and weird in itself.

2) Dybeck's thing about needing to find the mafia and not wanting to lynch SK shaft.ed. Anti-town, but not a massive scumtell. Confusing if anything

Town should have preference on killing mafia, obviously, since 2 mafia 1 townie is an autoloss, while 1 sk 1 mafia 1 town isnt necessarily a loss. So I dunno. This seems like a nulltell to me.

Well, I did the numbers thing just before (and I did something similar back then IIRC) that show that it is not significantly advantageous. By "anti-town...confusing if anything" I was more focussing on it being rather misleading rather than it being numerically the worser option.

Though, admittedly, I don't think dybeck did the numerical analysis that I did, so this is most very likely a nulltell.

3) Dybeck's haste to vote Orig was the first thing that stuck out as majorly scummy to me. He accepted AlyG's claim prima facie and then latched on.

That's true. Hypothetically, if Dybeck were mafia, he would know that he did not make the kill on CC, therefore making Orig vig or SK, both something the mafia would want to eliminate as soon as possible.

Nothing for me to add.

4) Dybeck's

it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday

when dybeck had rejected the Orig D1 wagon

Certainly wierd. Scumtell? I'm not sure. Did he ever address this point?

Not that I can recall.

DYBECK! ADDRESS PLEASE

5) The continued argument where dybeck was ignoring the main tenets of why I don't think Orig is scum and just re-running the same things (the three args from my previous post)

I'm confused... 1) Was he arguing he was mafia or SK, and 2) what were those 3 arguments?

1) Dybeck was arguing that Orig was mafia, very firmly. I think there was one post where he said something like "scum, most likely mafia"
2) The

2

arguments (typo, thanks for finding it):
a) Killing CC = ObvScum
b) Vig = Safest Scum Claim

6) Singular focus on Orig until it becomes certain Orig is not going to NK.

That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point.

I know that. However, my problem is that he says he was so damn sure (100% or now 99.5%) that Orig was scum that I cannot work out why he was prepared to just switched over when there was no pressure of deadline or anything. Particularly given that he was adamant that Orig was mafia and Oman was SK until Orig's NK prospects were looking nullified.

7) Dybeck was, for a long time, only hunting Orig as a SK and ignoring all questions of the mafia

Very scummy. It supports my hypothesizing about your third point.

TYPO! He was hunting Orig as a mafia only so this point is not true.

8.) Wishy-washy attitudes to everyone except Orig (until the Oman thing surfaced)

Hrm. Dont know what to think of this one. Elaboration would be helpful.

He had no expressed opinions of anybody except Orig until Oman emerged as a candidate to him once Orig had been pacified.

(I renumbered your post for my convenience)

9) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

I need to understand the context of this. Post #'s? Right now, it looks like you put an unfair burden on him at the time.

Sure.
[quote="Dybeck in #674]

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

I'm assuming that since he is lining up to defend him with misrepresentation and lies in the mathematics, that shaft.ed is a possible other mafia. He's misrepresented me on several occasions, and posted mathematics that he knows to be wrong (#637) to make it look like I'm incorrect, or somehow not hunting scum. Vollkan might be the other, or he might just be following shaft.ed's lead to appear helpful.

If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE. It's worth noting that two people in this town would want that to happen. I'd urge the town not to get swept along on a tide. There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch.

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

The problem is, that only these people I believe to be scum are posting, which means that as a block, they seem to be discrediting everything I say.

But I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die.
[/quote]

To explain the importance of this. In #689, Dybeck then posted his NK list which was:

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

The only way that can make sense is if he has shaft.ed/me/Orig as the mafia.

As I've said, I think orig is probably mafia. Too many people are defending him for at least one or two of them not to be informed.

SK a little bit less easy. Oman's "lynch anyone but me" attitude throughout the course of this game pins him as a good candidate.

If I had strong opinions about anyone else, rest assured that I'd have told you all about it by now.

But I'd hate for you to forget the core message that is "originality is obvious scum and we need to lynch him before he kills again".

Then in #889:

That's not the list I'd give now. I think it'd look more like:

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

A lot depends on whether orig is SK or mafia, because if he's SK, your [vollkan] defending him and attacking me looks a lot less scummy.

Then, once the No Kill was declared:

I'm not. He is my number 4, and pretty much number 3 now that elias is confirmed to actually not be lurking, but actually disappeared. I do think Oman is scummy, only dybeck is more so.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

10.) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom.

Yes. Very true.

11) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

Wierd. Did he respond to this? Also, post # please.

#952 (quoted ^ above)

I don't think he did...

12) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

Maybe. Unless he wants to survive the next day in town. IF by some miracle he survives (the scum could play wifom with the doc and end up getting no kill, or killing someone else entirely) then his kill will assure his lynch the next day.

No, if I had claimed vig as sk, I would definately follow their directions.

This is a bit of a toss-up. He is guaranteed dead by end N3 if any mafia survive, but also guaranteed dead if he does NK.

He can only hope to win if he NKs...but that will cause him to be lynched.

13) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

I dunno. I dont use fosses too often myself. If he has expressed suspicion today, theres not reason that he HAS to use an fos. So I guess its kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong.

No. It isn't strong. It just shows that there was not much of a foundation for the suspicion.

14) His certainty on Orig now with the 100% thing

Hmm. Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town). However, in relation to point 3 and 7 is pretty suspect.

Again, probably a case of my own standards. But with 3, yes (7 was typo).

Anyways, this is not supposed to be a defense. I'm responding to it because:
1) I didnt really understand the case, and I still need some confirmation
2) I haven't really seen anyone challenge the case besides Dybeck, who is a relative noob. I'd like to see how it stands up to closer scrutiny
3) I'd like to see if it's a good enough case that I'd be willing to put my vote behind. At this point, I dont think I would.

And you know what...

Unvote

There are a number of minor tells in there, but collectively and when analysed by someone other than myself (multiple scrutiny = very important) it is not decisive.

I hadn't gotten the whole thing out and analysed before this, so it was a good exercise.

[vollkan]

Wow, isn't it common practice here to say something so you look like you don't know anything about what happened in the night? Because that's what I did. If you will notice, I was pulling a Lucienne on us- that is, I was repeating exactly what the average town consensus was without adding anything new on my own, to look like I was contributing.

At the beginning I had all the tools I needed to pursue an AlyG lynch,(carrotcake's death) but I didn't, I never mentioned it, I just agreed that he was the only one that carrotcake had stuff against. If I was trying to frame him or something, I would have persued a lynch of him, like a lot of people were doing. And that third quote of me there, vollkan, is actually arguing PRO AlyG.

And at that last quote, I was saying that I had just agreed with everyone in saying that carrotcake must have scared someone or something, what was I supposed to do? Say what actually happened, that carrotcake did in fact not scare anyone, but actually seemed scummy, so I killed him? No. I think you are missreading that one.

Okay; you responded the way that I expected you to. As I have been saying, this is me trying to run through an interrigation with you to sort out if there are any merits to dybeck's stance.

Now, as for saying "I don't know what happened in the night", it is not common. Most people don't say anything. They may express annoyance if a power role was killed...but that is usually it.

So Elias are you still going to stick with your orig vote or vote for someone else? And Vollkan who are you going to vote for? or are you undecided?

At this stage, not Orig. He could be newb scum or new vig and I cannot think of any way to differentiate. His responses to my interrogation were what I would have expected. The fact is, that he really seems to think it makes sense for him to distance himself. It could be pure BS coming from him, but his explanation is complete at the moment.

As for my vote, I don't think the case on dybeck is substantial enough now that we have re-assessed everything.

That leaves Oman by a process of elimination from my top candidates.

I've got something else to say, which I find interesting. This relies on my own perspective, but I think it is worthwhile drawing it to your attentions:

Our players atm,
Elias_the_thief
Oman
AlyG
Gemelli
Lucienne
volkann
originality
shaft.ed
dybeck

The current VC is:

Oman (3) - Gemelli, shaft.ed, AlyG
dybeck (2) - originality, Oman
originality (2) - dybeck, Elias_the_Thief

Not voting: Lucienne, vollkan

If we assume Orig is vig, AlyG is tracker and that dybeck is not mafia with Oman that makes it likely to me (absent bussing which is always a serious possibility):

That the mafia are Lucienne, Elias and Oman, with myself slotted into this list for the rest of you.

In any event, if Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are. Which confines the mafia to those same three (four for the rest of you).

The Lucienne/Elias/Oman model is something I want to look at briefly:
(using the parser again)
Elias voted Oman on D1. Maybe sincere, maybe bussing.

However, this is made very interesting in light of Oman in #85:

1) Finally, I don't think Elias is scum here. Starting the wagon on me when originality had a wagon going strikes me an quite pro-town. Scum probably would've tryed to keep the wagon going (as per my phailed trap)

2 Unvote (if I was) Vote: Dr. Blackstrike HoS: Lucienne

Two things to note here:
1) Oman uses Elias's vote to suggest Elias is pro-town
2) Oman pulls a Vote/HoS combo. A very common scumtell.

Now, Lucienne voted Oman in #68 with a case that was criticised at the time. Oman called it "reaching". Lucienne's vote was third on Oman's wagon. Interestingly, in that very same post #68, Lucienne FoSed Dr. BS who was 2nd on the wagon. Other than that, we have Lucienne FoSing both Oman and dybeck in #876. Lucienne has not FoSed or voted Elias, nor has Elias done anything to Lucienne.

[vollkan]

Well, first I'll wifom the hell out of you: I love playing as scum. I wouldnt have asked for replacement even if I were swamped with games, were I scum. Now that I'm done shamelessly wifoming, I'd like to point out that you are just as likely with Lucienne and Oman as I am, based on this logic (and taken from my standpoint).

The wifom...it burns

Anyway, yeah, that's why included myself in that list. The point of that was to show what the situation is looking like to me if I think Orig is town and Oman is mafia.

In any event, if Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are. Which confines the mafia to those same three (four for the rest of you).

Why do you feel this way?

It could be distancing from them, I know, but it seems unlikely given how easily they could have gone after dybeck. They've been pretty consistent in their desire to lynch Oman despite how easy a dybeck lynch would have been for them, so I think bussing is rather unlikely.

I can see where you're coming from with this. Reading my post, it does seem kind of contrived when I express suspicions of Oman's trap. However, I think its pretty unfair to just say "Maybe he was bussing!" Everytime that two people in a suggested scum group vote for one or the other. It's just as likely that I was bussing with orig isnt it? I mean, to just arbitrarily choose one vote and call that a "bus vote" is fairly ridiculous.

In light of the rest of the things, I thought it was relevant. A contrived vote is a possible sign of bussing (a weak one albeit) so I thought I should have included it with the other factors.

Would you think my vote was at all suspect? I certainly wouldnt. In a situation where Oman created (or claimed to have created) a trap, he has to post his results. My action wasn't scummy. Therefore it would be ridiculous for him to call it scummy. This could easily be sincere town, or scum following up on their original ploy, but it doesnt say much about a connection.
As for #2, I've never heard that before. How is that a scumtell again? I've always thought that use of HoS, FoS, is all personal preference.

For 1, same as the above. This is all just my theorising if I assume that Orig is town and that Gem and Shaft are not scum with Oman.
2. I'm quite surprised you haven't encountered it yet. Anyway, the rationale is that the scum votes a townie and FoSes/HoSes their buddy so as to advance a townie lynch and distance from their buddy simultaneously.

I'm not sure about Oman and Lucienne, but this point is kind of moot to me. Me an Lucienne really haven't been active at the same time yet.

Well, that shouldn't really be a problem. They've implemented this wonderful new feature on mafiascum called "forums" that allow you to go back and read what has been said previously.

Vollkan, I like where you're going with the analysis there. Unfortunately, I think that bussing is more than a little likely, so I'm not sure how much credence to place on it at this time. Must re-read tomorrow with the benefits of sleep.

Well; yours and shaft.ed's behaviour to Oman does not look like bussing. It could be, but it seems genuine.

[vollkan]

Good luck with your HSC. I don't blame you for replacing, having gone through year 12 last year. It's a shame you have to leave the game, but it's perfectly understandable.

The main problem I see with this in terms of the game is that this kind of stalls things. It means that we won't be able to get feedback from arguments against Oman or anything until we find a replacement, which will be hard for a 42 page analysis-heavy game.

Additionally, this makes it very unlikely that we will get a response if we move to the point of having Oman roleclaim in anticipation of a lynch.

[vollkan]

When you combine this with originality not biting on vollkan's intro post and the following attacks on AlyG from myself and Oman, I find this play by originality to at least demonstrate protection. I'm a little surprised that he'd be protecting AlyG after the back and forth they had on D1, but I'll guess that's because he didn't want to see someone falsely accused. To sum this point up, I believe orig and AlyG to be aligned. Since AlyG is very likely a tracker I would propose they are most likely both town. However, there is the possibility they set up this incredibly intricate gambit, but why bother? If they were scum, they'd be in a great position this day with 3 townies going out D1/N1.

Very true. That was basically the response that my probing got from Orig too; that he had all the tools but didn't use them. As I said, I ran the AlyG argument purely to see how Orig would respond and to test the merits of dybeck's case on Orig. Sort of a Devil's Advocacy thing from me.

OK, the case against dybeck. I have to say reading that whole exchange nearly made my head explode. I was becoming more and more convinced dybeck was scum, and then at the end I saw vollkan unvote. I have to admit I'm getting rather confused in this game.

But in the unvote post of mine, after looking at it all, most of it was not very compelling stuff. Dybeck is very scummy, but I don't know if it is lynch-worthy or not.

He's the only person that I'm certain is scum. I'd rather go with someone I'm sure about than anyone I'm less than sure about. Then I say we let the other side take a potshot and maybe hit another scum. And frankly, if you asked me to name a serial killer here in this game I'd be completely stabbing in the dark.

I do not approve of this at all.

We should never rely on getting lucky over a SK shooting a mafia. EVER. As shaft.ed said, mafOrig is dead tonight anyway because there is no way a SK will let him live.

And apart from that, there's still the point I've made about the possibility of losing if we don't hit mafia today. And if by any chance the SK doesn't go for orig, perhaps because he looks like an easy lynch tomorrow, the mafia could end up being such a huge voting block tomorrow that they'll be hard to argue against - the entire town will have to agree on the same scum member to get a good lynch.

This is true, however it is highly unlikely the SK would take that option. The mafia being large is a severe threat to the SK and, as such, the SK maximises his chances by getting rid of Orig. If he failed to off Orig that night, he has basically lost unless another mafia is lynched today.

Besides, my only reasoning for working on the assumption that he's mafia is that he's got such support from some people. It's been hard, at points, to accept that these people could not be his scummates. He could as easily be the SK as several other people in this game.

If that is the foundation of your reasoning, I suggest you rethink. He is a claimed vig dybeck. I even tried firmly pushing case and it doesn't hold water. As such, if you are assuming he is mafia JUST because people do not want to lynch him, that is very poor reasoning.

[vollkan]

Reading shaft.ed's latest post got me thinking.

If we were to lynch mafOrig today, (to draw on what I wrote back in #1000.
MafOrig lynch = 5:2:1
--MafNK town = 4:2:1 (P = 5/6)
----SKNK maf = 4:1:1 (P = 2/7) P = 0.23

----SKNK town = 3:2:1 (P= 5/7) P = 0.59

--MafNK SK = 5:2:0 (P = 1/6)
----SKNK maf = 5:1:0 (P = 2/7) P = 0.04
----SKNK town = 4:2 (P = 5/7) P = 0.11

If we mislynch today and Orig is mafia,
Mislynch = 4:3:1
--MafNK town = 3:3:1 (P=4/5)

----SKNK mafOrig = 3:2:1 (since this is pretty certain, P=4/5)

--MafNK SK = 4:3:0 (P=1/5)
----SKNK mafOrig = 4:2 (again, pretty certain so P=1/5)

A SK lynch where Orig is mafia,
SKLynch = 5:3:0
MafNK town = 4:3 LYLO. (Lynching Orig would then make it 4:2, then mafNK makes it 3:2)

The key point to draw from this is that a lynch of mafOrig is actually likely (P=0.59)to be only as beneficial to us as a mislynch will most likely be (P=4/5).

Both put us in 3:2:1.

FTR, the 3:2:1 scenario:
At 3:2:1,

Mislynch D3 = 2:2:1

MafNK of town = 1:2:1 (P=2/3)
--SK NK of town = 0:2:1 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
--SK NK of mafia = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.33)
MafNK of SK = 2:2:0 (P=1/3)
--SK NK of town = 1:2:0 LOSS (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:1 LYLO (P=1/2) (Total P = 0.166)

Maflynch D3 = 3:1:1

MafNK of town = 2:1:1 (P=3/4)
--SK NK of town = 1:1:1 YUCK (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.5625)
--SK NK of mafia = 2:0:1 LYLO (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
MafNK of SK = 3:1:0 (P=1/4)
--SK NK of town = 2:1:0 LYLO (P=3/4) (Total P = 0.1875)
--SK NK of mafia = 3:0:0 WIN (P=1/4) (Total P = 0.0625)

SKLynch D3 = 3:2:0

MafNK of town = 2:2 LOSS (P=1)

Now, if the 1:1:1 YUCK were to arise:

Town lynch

Townlynch = 0:1:1
MafNK of SK = 0:1:0
--SK NK of maf = 0:0:0 PLANE IS EMPTY (draw...I think)

Maflynch

Maflynch = 1:0:1
SK NK of town = 0:0:1 LOSS

SKLynch

SKlynch = 1:1:0
Maf NK of town = 0:1:0 LOSS

NoLynch

Nolynch = 1:1:1
MafNK of SK = 1:1:0 (P=0.5)
--SK NK of Maf = 1:0:0 WIN (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25)
--SK NK of Town = 0:1:0 LOSS (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25)
MafNK of town = 0:1:1 (P=0.5)
--SK NK of Maf = 0:0:1 LOSS (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25)
--SK NK of town = 0:1:1 DRAW...I think (since they kill each other off) (P=0.5) (Total P = 0.25) --> This is where SK and maf both target townie.

Can someone please confirm for me that if town loses first, do we still get a draw if maf and SK kill each other out?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
My final thoughts: As we can see, a lynch of mafOrig has a 0.59 chance of placing us at 3:2:1, from where our loss (or 1:1:1) is quite likely.

A lynch of SKOrig, VigOrig or non-OrigSK places us at 5:3 LYLO.

Therefore,

it is utterly stupid of us to lynch Orig

. I cannot stress that enough.

Our best bet is to lynch a non-Orig mafioso in ANY event.

If Orig is mafia;
non-OrigMafLynch = 5:2:1
--MafNK town = 4:2:1 (P = 5/6)
----SKNK Orig = 4:1:1 (P = 1) P = 0.833 (P=1 since the SK will certainly NK Orig, unless they are trying to lose)
--MafNK SK = 5:2:0 (P = 1/6)
----SKNK Orig = 5:1:0 (P = 1) P = 0.1666

If Orig is SK or Vig, things are difficult in terms of probabilities. The mafia know that if Orig NKs he will be lynched tomorrow, but they don't know whether Orig is SK or Vig. As such, I don't know quite how I should compute the probabilities. The raw numbers are easy enough (for SK, see the first set I give in this post). If we assume that the mafia NK Orig and Orig does not NK, then we end up opening D3 at 5:2 regardless of Orig's alignment.

I may well be wrong somewhere in this analysis, but if I take it as correct it tells me very clearly that we should not even be contemplating an Orig lynch.

[vollkan]

Wow. Thanks so much Korlash and well done Streeflo.

Anyway, some thoughts since my last post:
Gemelli's D1 analysis of Oman fortifies the case to a significant degree. Right now, we have two strong cases on both Oman and Dybeck and I think our challenge now is to work out which one is best.

I am anxious to see how dybeck reacts to my having crippled his case on dybeck, not only his arguments but the numbers of it as well.

[vollkan]

[quote="Vollkan meant to write]
I am anxious to see how dybeck reacts to my having crippled his case on Orig, not only his arguments but the numbers of it as well.
[/quote]

[vollkan]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them.

We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

*headdesks*
You can't be serious.

The CC argument of yours has been shot down again and again. The numbers I gave further this point by highlighting that your stance is anti-town. I also really do not like the casual "just lynch Korlash" ending.

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

No. You miss how this works.

If Orig is Vig

Orig will not NK. Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is SK

Orig will probably not NK (his own death is guaranteed if he does). Mafia will NK him or AlyG

If Orig is Mafia

Orig will NK AlyG. The SK will NK Orig.

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:

(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.
(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

This is true as well.

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Why does it make a nonmafia lynch tomorrow certain?

When he isn't dead tomorrow we simply scumhunt as normal (unless he has NKed). I don't see the problem. The two nks thing is a non-issue because, if Orig has not NKed on N2, it means we can control him again (either to make a kill or to refrain).

I dont see a disadvantage to scum here. Vig/SK kills rarely actually hit scum, simply because town greatly outnumbers scum. This seems to be something scum would want, at least for one night.

No. If we lynch today, keeping Orig alive gives the prospect of having all mafia eliminated by N3 (low prospect, but it is a real threat to them).

Elias, I just proved numerically that lynching Orig is a terrible idea. If he is mafia, it will only be as helpful to us most likely as a mislynch. If he is SK or Vig we are in LYLO. Our best bet is to lynch a mafioso today. If we stuff up, our situation will likely only be as bad as if we had lynched mafOrig anyway.

Thus, your position is wholly wrong. PLEASE do not do a dybeck and just ignore us.

[vollkan]

But my point is that by allowing Orig to live, it allows for an almost certain nonmafia lynch tomorrow (assuming he is SK/Vig). At least that's how I see it. I mean, what do we do tomorrow when he isnt dead, and we have two nks to worry about the next night?

Why does it make a nonmafia lynch tomorrow certain?

Orig not showing up dead makes me pretty sure he's scum. I doubt mafia would play the wifom game on whether theres a

cop

to protect Aly or not.

That doesn't really answer my question about it making nonmafia lynch certain.

Also, I assume you meant doc when you wrote cop.

Now, addressing your latest post:
I don't get your logic here. If Orig is mafia, then the SK will need to NK him to have a hope. Thus, mafOrig is dead by D3 anyway.

If Orig is SK/Vig, then there is a chance that the mafia might not NK him (if they want to risk going for AlyG) but it doesn't prove he is scum by any means.

When he isn't dead tomorrow we simply scumhunt as normal (unless he has NKed). I don't see the problem. The two nks thing is a non-issue because, if Orig has not NKed on N2, it means we can control him again (either to make a kill or to refrain).

I do not agree with controlling a role taht we are unsure of. If he is SK, he will certainly betray us when we are close to LYLO, forcing us to kill scum instead of him.

This is true, but I don't think it has any bearing on the fact that the most advantageous strategy for us is not to lynch Orig today

[vollkan]

First up, good post Korlash. It always helps to get a new perspective on things. I have problems with some of what you said, but I am still pleased that you are making a unique contribution.

Big Issue:

As of this very second... I would vote Volkan based on three of his past posts I find/deem weird and/or suspicious. Note that not being caught up means I may be missing something and this should in no way be taken as my official opinion... just my thoughts as of now...

First in Post 487, He lists his "Mafioso list" he goes on to say he leaves off Orig and AlyG because of roleclaims. I can agree with this... What I cannot agree with is him saying "Shaft.ed appears protown so I will not consider him for a lynch" And then follow it up by concluding "So 3 out of the 5 on the list are the mafia!"

I cannot overlook someone trying to push another's innocents by conveniently overlooking them. There is no reason not to suspect Shaft.ed... at least none I see... You may concider him protown, think he is protown, have strong feelings, blah blah blah, but to make a scum list and not put on people you have no PROOF of being town... means you are trying to cover them up in some way...

Result: I find this to be a logical reason to think about a Volkan/Shaft.ed/ (Orig or AlyG) partnership... This by no means is proof of guilt, but I would like some explanation before I start narrowing my whole reread focus on Volkan... That can be way dangerous and I won't hurt us by not being up to full speed ><

You are looking at what I said in the wrong way Korlash. I made a similar sort of post not too long ago, looking at the ramifications of certain assumptions.

Don't read what I said as me saying that shaft.ed is 100% proven pro-town, because that certainly is not my view. That post you are looking at was simply me framing my perspective on how things looked. As in, shaft.ed seemed very pro-town to me and, as such, I was simply demonstrating how things look to me if shaft.ed is pro-town as a base assumption.

I hope the clears up my meaning.

Post 544,

I raised the option of an AlyG lynch, as I said, to see what people though. By that, of course, I meant that I was interested to see who supported it. Again, shaft.ed, you have taken the pro-town option, whereas Oman has, again, supported something on a dodgy basis. I have done this also, which was why I raised the AlyG thing, to see the extent of what Oman would support.

The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig.

HELLO? OTHER TOWN PLAYERS? HOW CAN YOU HAVE COMPLETLY OVERLOOKED THIS?

*cries blood*

1)

How can the excuse "I voted player X just to see who would also vote him! Actually voting him is scummy! So lets lynch the person who agreed with me!" fly... How come Volkan is still alive? Why did this last an additional ... 20 odd pages... ???!?!?!?! Is there a logical answer later on? Did I miss something? What?

2

Now I'm not saying the excuse "I want to see how fast someone would bandwagon" or "I want to see how fast someone would switch votes" or something similar means anything bad, I'm saying the excuse Volkan used in this post seems like something a scum would say to throw a "Bandwagon" he started onto the shoulder's of someone else... It seems like either a frame up, or a cover up...

3

Also a bit more of that Shaft.ed is town stuff from Volkan... still not anything plausible, but seeing a pattern over and over is something I like to run with...

Melodramatic much?

1) I did not vote AlyG, which is what you are saying I did. My words were:

One possibility would be to lynch AlyG.
If AlyG comes up mafia, we pretty much know that Orig is mafia also. If that happens, we know we have a SK and I would be willing to bank very strongly on it being Dybeck.

The point of me saying that incredibly stupid statement was to trap Oman, as I said in 544. Oman's response was textbook scum, exactly as I expected:

Dybeck is choice #1 for a lynch, but AlyG could help us confirm Orig mafia if(when:lol:) AlyG comes up mafia.

Then we're left at...something:1:1 (Didn't do the math) In a WCS
Yeah, I reckon either AlyG or Dybeck.

Thanks for bringing this up Korlash, because you reminded me of how Oman fell majorly for this trap of mine, which is precisely what I was saying in 544

You seem to think I was sincere there. I do have a history of using this sort of technique though. See: Mini 486

2) I never voted AlyG for this.

3) Given the intent of the trap, it should be obvious that shaft.ed took the pro-town option.

... Now... granted... its an 80 post difference... and shafted does make a good case against a vig night kill... It's just that seeing as how I seem to have other cases against him, I feel it best to get answers to any thing I find, and such an obvious contradiction deserves an answer...

No real contradiction. If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite.

In other words, Korlash, you ignored a gigantic chunk of posts in which it was pretty clear why my position changed in order to make up a contradiction.

Again this proves nothing... But I still think I should get it answered BEFORE I continue reading... Otherwise I may begin limiting my search to Volkan and his actions... which, as previously stated, would mean I come into the game as a disadvantage to the rest of the town...

I would strongly recommend that you do not limit your read to me. Even if I had not rebutted your suspicions, it is exceptionally bad to focus your read on just one player.

Why do you guys keep doing the 6-3-1, and IF vig blank, if not vig blank, if mafia blank, etc... OVER AND OVER AND OVER... *hour*... AND OVER... I get that knowing odds can help, and knowing all outcomes means we can make better choices, but come on... IF you keep ONLY doing that you don't actually DO anything... and then you find yourself on page 43 with over 1000 posts and no closer to a lynch then when you started...

It's a playstyle thing. I like to examine the probabilities and consequences of things in order to determine the best options.

It is very useful (ie. it was chiefly responsible for the call to ban Orig from NKing tonight and has destroyed the case for lynching Orig today).

[vollkan]

OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Korlash

You almost had me doubting my suspicion in you, and then you go and make another casual call for a lynch, dodging the whole debate about you being entirely wrong on Orig.

Vote: dybeck

[vollkan]

And... that was probably the most weird and suspicious thing I have ever read... wait.. don;t think about it.. catch up first.. right...

What was?

[vollkan]

One of the things that has been most troubling to me about vollkan was his constant pressing for originality to vig' kill. I really didn't like this idea and felt it was anti-town especially given orig's choice to kill anyone last night. Also if he is scum this would get him off the hook so to speak. I was never sure if he was saying all this as a code to make the mafia think orig would be more likely to kill than he really was and thus make him more likely to be NK'd than AlyG, but it didn't set easy with me (and that was also a source for a lot of numbers). This is something that I consider a strike against vollkan.

If you read most of my posts of that era, I was trying to tell Orig not to kill but in such a way that it was uncertain; failing miserably of course, since I was attempting to get the best of both worlds.

When I said things like:

No, we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution

and

I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing. I will support him being told he really shouldn't, but he must be given some leeway so that the prospect of him killing and not being lynched remains as a threat. I really don't want Orig to risk it, but I also don't want to lose the uncertainty.

In effect, what I was trying to was to tell Orig not to NK in a slightly cryptic way so that I did not have to get rid of the uncertainty element. I knew that it was seen as anti-town of me, but I thought if I maintained that attitude I might be able to stop Orig NKing whilst still being able to keep the facade of it being "uncertain".

I think that his backing of orig and his continual failure to engage on the subject marks him as orig's scummate.

I smell someone who is just paraphrasing what other people have been saying.

[vollkan]

Korlash, your abuse of punctuation makes me want to cry. Ellipsises are not an alternative to singular full-stops.

On a side note: what is the exact meaning of Ad Hominem? I think I tried to look it up in the Wiki once and either didn't find it or have forgot it... I know it means something along the lines of flaming or a personal attack... I just want to know the limitations, and bordering lines to it... also exact definition ><'

Ad hominem is argument to the person and it is a logical fallacy.

The basic gist of it is:
Person A says X.
Person A has some objectionable trait Q.
Therefore, X is false.

Usually, it just takes the form of "WTF that's stupid!" or something like that. It's all about attacking the person rather than the argument.

So theres my look into Oman's brain.... I would not be surprised if none of this convinces you about anything, and I would not be against votes based on Oman's actions, but I will right now tell you I am town, and logically, with three vanilla's down... I mean...

I think my avy says it all...

>.> <.<

Congraturations, you just earned a patented *HEADDESK*!

Why on earth did you just claim vanilla?! You do realise that if you are town all you are doing is flagging to the mafia precisely where the power roles are likely to be, because you have just told them that you are not one.

[vollkan]

And be careful... I don't think now is a good time to start any sort of role "fishing" now, be it to fish my role, warn me not to say it, or even to try and confuse the mafia by throwing them off the scent... I claimed town, then said I was hungry for ice cream... Leave it at that until I get caught up... Unless your trying to start a WIFOM situation here that only forces me to abandon my reading and instead put all effort into the here and now...

Korlash, it is not role-fishing for me to tell you not to claim vanilla. Any player with a grain of sense would do exactly the same thing.

You claimed vanilla. I don't care if it is genuine or not and I have no intention of pursuing any further, but you should know that claiming vanilla when you are not under pressure of lynch is incredibly anti-town.

Furthermore, stop looking for reaching for ulterior motives. I am not trying to distract you from your read. You are claiming vanilla and acting all confused and naive, of course I am going to step in and say something.

And define Ellipsises

...

do you mean Parenthesis? Cause if not I have no idea what your talking about

...

heck even now I still don't

...

I bolded 3 of the damn things in that quoted bit alone. An ellipsis is one of these ... <---- Those three bloody dots

A full stop will be perfectly sufficient.

Look:

And define ellipsises. Do you mean parenthesis? Cause if not I have no idea what you're talking about. Heck, even now I still don't.

So much less cluttered and easier to read.

[vollkan]

I thought he was prematurely claiming vanilla because he said he was town and then said:

I mean,I think my avy says it all [ellipsises removed to prevent brain esplosion]

If you weren't, that's fine.

[vollkan]

How you got that from his comment, I'm really not sure. Maybe this was a joke or something, but if not...wow.

Korlash's avatar has an icecream in it as "100% vanilla" but he made no mention of icecream in his post. He just said he was town and then referred to his avatar, which said vanilla.

I don't get why Orig thinks he meant vanilla at first instance...

[vollkan]

EDIT: In the last line that should be "vanilla icecream". I was saying that I don't get why Orig thinks that it was obviously talking about vanilla icecream rather than the role.

[vollkan]

look, Me claiming town is pretty much the only defense I have for Oman's bad playing, so thats what I did......................................

No. The best defence would be for you to try and rationalise things or, failing that, to just admit you don't have a clue.

And claiming vanilla is THE BEST THING i can do as town,

A) I don't have to give up my actual role. (Provided I have one)

B) It means I am less likely to be night killed by the vig and/or mafia, meaning if I actually do have a role it is not in jeopardy.

and C) It is a very hard thing for anyone, town or mafia, to disprove.

A) You are setting up a false dichotomy here. You do not need to claim anything. A claim is not a defence and you were in no peril of being lynched.
B) And if you

don't

have a role it means that the scum are more likely to hit a power role. Please, DO NOT claim power role!! (I can just see where this is head....) C) That doesn't help us in any way whatsoever.

And whether you like it or not, you bringing up how me claiming vanilla is bad for town is the first step to make me either actually claim, or admit to having a power role.

No it is not. As a rule, you should never claim vanilla prematurely. Why?
a) If you are vanilla, it means that the scum know that you are safe not to NK and have a higher likelihood of hitting a power role.
b) If you are a power role, it draws attention onto yourself which can result in suspicion which can result in forced claim, which just flags you to the scum.

If you were actually protown there vollkan you shouldn't be so worried about someone claiming vanilla. We are down 3 vanilla already, thus, theoretically, every single one of us town left could have a power role. (Provided the mafia also got one) Stop trying to kill off a viable defense for an unknown power role.

Claiming is NOT a defence. Furthermore, prematurely claiming vanilla is not a viable strategy in any event because of what I said above.

And if it bothers you guys THAT much I will agree to stop with my trademark dots if you never do another number crunching again. Is it worth it to you? Think carefully here... (Just to piss you off <3)

Why would you want us to stop number-crunching?

*sigh* It seems Oman has been replaced by a village idiot.

[vollkan]

Let me put this gently: I have no clue what the hell you are talking about. I will try and address your "points" (?) but bear in mind that you are confusing me chronically.

SCENARIO ONE:

First, I just made an argument about Vollkan's "AlyG blah blah Oman blah blah scum would act blah blah" Excuse he made. Seeing as how his point was against Oman (Me) I feel that me, trying out what he calls a "strategy" against him, would make sense in me understanding the way it worked and if there was any viable claim in its use. If this is the case, I think I would have gotten the exact response I would have wanted, which is Vollkan to respond to it. Now I find this scenario hard to believe, or do I? Who knows. I won't say one way or another.

Main points I expect Vollkan to come back at me over this:

1) "It's nothing like what I did!"
2) "I never called it a strategy, I said 'Technique'! stop putting words in my mouth scum!"
3) "How would you know I would be the one to respond? Your just trying to make an excuse!"
4) "My responce is not scummy! It is blah blah not protown blah blah what you did... etc!"

Prerecorded response to each of these:

1) I could argue similarities and you could argue differences all day, big point, if you just throw this scenario out the window without thinking it over for a second, you prove (TO ME!) that what you did was BS and thus I will not just simply forget about what you did to Oman (Me) and I will not drop my case against you.

2) I swap similar words sometimes, sue me. Defense and excuse can sometimes (Key word) mean the same thing. I also think technique and strategy are similar enough to be used to replace each other once. I am not trying to put words in your mouth (even though I am trying to predict the future ^^)

3) How did you know Oman was going to respond? Perhaps it was a trap to catch anyone and you just fell into it. *shrugs*

4) I have not said my views on your actual response (in this post at least) thus I do not claim it to be scummy or pro town.

1) So in short, because I laid a trap against Oman you now suspect me? Is this all an OMGUS thing?
2) No. I knew precisely what you meant. My point is that it is no defence/explanation/excuse/justification/whatever word you want to use to simply claim vanilla and then suggest we all move on.
3) Well, it was a gamble, wasn't it. In Mini 486, mafOman fell for a trap so I thought I would try it again here.
4) Okay then.

SCENARIO TWO:

Perhaps, I (as town, call me newb if you want. call me stupid, call me a free thinker, call me on my cell phone) did not think that claiming town was a bad thing. I mean, don't we all claim town, without even saying it? Who would not say they were town? "I'm not town! Don't lynch me!" probably won't fly. Also, Note that I did see claiming vanilla as a not so good thing, thus I did not come right out and say it. I hinted at it, I also hinted at the same time to being a power role, yet you conveniently left that part out. So, all in all, all I did was tell you guys I am town so that you might go easy on me over what Oman did pre-me.

Main points I expect Vollkan to come back at me over this:

1) "How can you not see that claiming vanilla is a bad thing?"
2) "If you thought claiming vanilla was not a good thing why did you do it?"
3) "Where did you claim power role?"
4) "Why even claim anything? You were not in danger/under pressure!"

Prerecorded response to each of these:

1) well, while it may bring pressure towards me and a vote or two, no town would lynch someone for claiming vanilla townie. So by doing it you are mostly guaranteed to not be NKed AND not be lynched. So I think, coming in right now, not being lynched or NKed would benefit me so I can catch up.

2) I didn't do it. I only said "my avy says it all." Where in that sentence do you see the words "I, am, or vanilla townie"?

3) "...and logically, with three vanilla's down..." To me, this should set off red flags. Logically, three VTs down, more chance to be a power role! Does me not claiming a power role incriminate me as much as me not claiming Vanilla townie Vollkan? Should I just go ahead and claim Mafia and let you and your scum partners win? [/sarcasm]

4) I claimed town for two reasons. 1) I had just come from trying to defend/excuse Oman's stupidity. So I wanted to clarify that I was actually town. And 2) it opened up me "not claiming vanilla or power role" leaving me to agree with whatever Oman said he was. (Such as if on page 30 he said he was a vanilla townie I would not have contradicted that, while if he had said he was a power role, hinted he was, or actually claimed something, Doc/Cop/RB/Vig etc, I could continue that.)

And I know someone will bring it up so don't take that as me saying "I am mafia and I needed to know what lie Oman said!!!!"

Don't tell me a vanilla townie wouldn't hint at a power role so he had a chance of being the NK instead of the actual role. At the same time don't tell me a power role would not say vanilla if asked/forced to claim.

This one is still insane, but I at least know what you are generally talking about: the vanilla claim thing.

1) Not true. In fact, some people actually have a "Lynch All Vanillas" policy. I don't, but the fact is that a vanilla claim is incredibly dodgy and will get you suspected by a lot of people. It is inherently anti-town when done prematurely (as yours was).
2) Your avatar says "100% vanilla". Don't be obtuse here.
3) Claiming a power role would be idiotic, but it would not be incriminating. I would be pissed as all hell if you did that, because that can only help the scum, but it would not incriminate you.
4) *headdesks*
1. It does not clarify that you are town in any way shape or form. All you have done is say "I am town". Well, wonderful, are we meant to just accept that at face value and ignore anything suspicious from you from now on?
2. Oman should not have done it back then and you should not be continuing it now. The fact remains that you had no reason to claim vanilla.

Another Scenario?

Perhaps I am just a village idiot as you called me, you moron, (I can take a few insults, but expect them back eventually. You don't make friends by name calling! Tsk tsk!) and made a simple newbie mistake!

No. I am fully confident what I did was in no way anti-town or pro-mafia. It may not be full blown

BEST FOR TOWN, but it is a GOOD FOR ME in the end.

And, while I care about the town, I am not reading 43 F***ing pages just to be F***ing NKed by the damn Vig.

Main points I expect Vollkan to come back at me over this:

1) "How is this GOOD FOR YOU?"
2) Why would you do anything that was not best for town?"
3) "So you are not afraid to be killed by the mafia?"
4) "How does this make you a sure win for not being lynched?"

Prerecorded response to each of these:

1) Its good on these points:
a) I can confirm whatever Oman said, b) I have officially claimed "Town!" If you tell me how this is bad(As in either a scum tell, or a surefire way to be lynched/NKed) for me I will vote myself. and c) I already told you how I THINK it makes it less likely I am killed.

2) Because, sometimes, it is a lot better to sacrifice the RB/Vig to protect someone else. Not to mention I am modest and think I am best for town being left alive.

3) No. I have no fear that you will kill me tonight Vollkan. I think you would much rather kill off Orig. and if not that, I guarantee you would kill off Shaft.ed just in case the VIg kills one of your partners You look completely innocent tomorrow. Killing me tonight would stop me being a good candidate for a lynch tomorrow.

4) You seem to think its suspicious yet no vote. Orig agrees yet no vote. Elias didn't even comment on it so no vote. See a pattern? This one little detail did not net me a single vote. Thus, no pressure, no fear of a lynch, and above all some active discussion so you all get to know me. I hate unknowns and, even with all of Oman's comments, I am still somewhat unknown to you guys as I play differently, and do not have all the answers he did.

Call me whatever the hell you like; I make a point of never being offended by anything.

The bolded bit there is rather, erm, interesting. Surely you realise that your priority should be helping the town, not ensuring your own survival. The excuse about not wanting to be vigged justifies this position in no way at all.

1)
a) You are not confirming Oman's claim...you are simply restating it. If I say "I am doctor" in post #20 and then repeat it in post #2000 it does not confirm my claim's veracity.
b) It is bad for town if you are telling the truth about being vanilla because:
I) Scum will NK elsewhere and will likely hit a powerrole
II) You may have now drawn suspicion onto yourself and not onto scum
It is bad for town if you are a power role lying because:
I) You may have now drawn suspicion onto yourself and not onto scum
II) It makes any genuine pre-lynch claim less believable.
Fine, it does make your NK less likely if you are power-role, but there are other disadvantages and, given that we already have two claimed power roles, it is unlikely that an unclaimed you would have been NKed anyway.

2) I would prefer to keep a RB/Vig over a modest vanilla you any day.

3) So you think I am mafia? With who?

4) Yes, because Elias, Orig and myself are not the type to vote on vanilla claims but many people do. As I have already said, it makes a power claim at pre-lynch more doubtful and is wholly unnecessary. As I said, I have encountered people who adhere to a "LaV" approach.

[vollkan]

Vollkan, I think you are strongly overreacting here.

If you had bolded the portion of the sentence that read "I am town, and logically, with three vanilla's down..." you could have just as easily made the case that he was implying a power role. I mean, the avatar includes the words "100% vanilla," but it also includes a picture of an evil demon thing waggling its eyebrows. I detect a certain amount of sarcasm from the combination.

I know what you are saying, but he said:

I think my avy says it all.

and the avatar says vanilla.

And while I would agree with you that it is NOT rolefishing to tell someone not to claim vanilla, asking the question "why did you claim vanilla?" when he hadn't done so IS rolefishing a bit, of the "have you stopped beating your wife" school. It's almost impossible to answer your question without giving away some information about whether you are vanilla or not.

The proper response would simply be to say: "I did not claim vanilla. You may have misunderstood"

It does not give away anything.

Please re-read what you wrote in post 1107. I understand your frustration, but you don't need to resort to fallacious arguments yourself.

I wasn't using ad hom. I attacked each of his arguments from a purely logical basis. I just called him VI at the end because I thought his logic was so wonky at points.

Oh, and please enlighten me as to what your equation tells us

[vollkan]

If it means nothing why did you make such a big deal about it in the first place? Wouldn't it have just been better to ignore it and move on?

My problem was the vanilla claiming aspect.

Saying you are town is meaningless, claiming vanilla is damaging.

You, Orig, and either Shaft.ed or dybeck. still deciding on the third... Shaft.ed seems to have the links, but Dybeck has the distancing factor working with his obvious scumminess. hmmm, I would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck are Nked or gain new evidence for/against them by day four. Note that this may change when I have fully finished reading.

I will wait until you have finished reading then. But I am glad you posted this in terms of FTR value.

On a side note I enjoyed that equation, I needed the laugh!

Oh...I see. It was a joke.

[vollkan]

Also whats FTR? And while I'm at it.. is HoS the same as FoS?

FTR = For The Record.

Basically, when I said

I will wait until you have finished reading then. But I am glad you posted this in terms of FTR value.

I meant that I was pleased you had posted those suspicions because it will let me see how things develop based on this record of your current feelings.

FoS = Finger of Suspicion
HoS = Hand of Suspicion

HoS is just a stronger version of FoS.

[vollkan]

I won't try and defend myself, your claims are justified. Just try putting yourself in my position. In the 30 odd pages I did read before posting that, Oman had been playing very shitty in my opinion. I have no idea what the hell he might have said. For all you know I could be the Doc and there might have been a false claim day two that Oman spoke up about. For all I know he may have let something slip about being a vanilla towny in a post that was overlooked. He may have even claimed to be the Vig at some point. I didn't mean to say he might have lied about his role, I meant to imply I didn't know if he had claimed yet, and if he didn't I don't want to claim it either. So I tried to be as vague as possible.

And for the last time I did not claim vanilla... I hinted at it and the fact that two of my top three suspects are hounding me on it seems to make me think I am on the right path.

This just makes no sense to me at all. Fine, maybe Oman did claim somewhere. I haven't seen anything of that sort, and by the sounds of it, neither have you. Hence, it makes no sense that you would claim vanilla. If you didn't know what Oman had said, why would you even bother claiming? There was no pressure or anything.

And claiming vanilla is THE BEST THING i can do as town

Korlash, here you are saying that claiming vanilla is the best thing you could do. Before you were saying that you did not claim vanilla; now you are saying you "hinted". This is just downright confusing.

My opinion of Korlash so far is that he has come in and panicked for some reason; his actions all bespeak of him trying to ensure his own survival over anything else. Obviously, that's a huge scumtell in itself.

Korlash, a question: Do you think Orig is vig, mafia or SK, and why?

[vollkan]

If you guys can find me one post where I said "I am claiming vanilla in this post 100% right here!!!" or something to that degree of claim then by golly you might be on to something. But unless you can do that, My theory of a Vollkan, Shaft.ed, Dybeck trio is embedded in my mind.

You said:

... I think my avy says it all...

Your avatar says "100% vanilla". 'Nuff said.

Hello? i thought you were smarter then that. My sentence clearly showed I was counting Orig as the lynch, thus there was no way in HELL he could have been NKed. And at that time I was assuming Vollkan was mafia and you two were town, killing you guys (The ones I consider his most ally like) would throw all suspicion off of him. So, to answer your question, no. Unless Orig is left alive I have no fear you or dybeck will be NKed because your my pick for scum.

This makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever. Clarify it please.

And I am 100% sure the town (Not you three) will regret my death. But hey, I am willing to die today. When you guys see I'm town, one of you gets NKed from the Vig and we still have a good chance of winning. I just don't think my death is necessary when we could take one of you out today and be done with it tomorrow.

You're either very skilled, or the most presumptive player I have ever encountered.

You are so certain that shaft.ed, dybeck and myself are mafia together that you are prepared to have a lynch of yourself, which (if you are town, which I am beginning to doubt) will bring it to either 4:3:1 or 5:3 because you know that there is absolutely no chance of Orig misvigging if he targets one of us three.

OBJECTION!

(always wanted to say that)
You said just in that very same post:

That being said I think he is either the Vig or

mafia

and I won't say which i think is more likely.

The problem here is very simple:
Korlash is SO certain about shaft.ed/dybeck/Vollkan that he is apparently prepared to die to prove it (How his death proves this I have no idea...), on the basis that him coming up town proves that the mafia are shaft.ed/dybeck/Vollkan (again, how???) and then Orig will NK one of us, ensuring that we still have "a good chance of winning" However, Korlash himself contradicts this because he himself is unconvinced as to whether Orig is vig or mafia.

Vote: Korlash

And my statement about how claiming vanilla was best for me in no ways proves I claimed it. It does give you a reason why i hinted at it so strongly, so if you got the impression I claimed it then yay it worked! However I do not see townies pushing this hard on something like this, especially seeing as how

your claim is false.

So I would much rather ask you why you three think it's such a good idea to make up

lies about me this late in the game?

Whose claim is false??
What lies??

Korlash, the fact is that prematurely claiming vanilla is bad for the town. It is not unreasonable of us to be hounding you for doing so; it is an action which makes no sense for a townie.

i never voted Vollkan because I felt it seemed to OMGUSish,

Again, korlash places most value on his own self-preservation.

I've seen enough.

Vote: Korlash

[vollkan]

Your first vote was placed on me after you claimed "I was undecided on how I feel about orig" Because of that I assume you placed the vote because that piece of evidence threw me into vote range. So I will disprove that bit and assume it should throw me back into "Not so much vote range"

That being said I think he is either the Vig or mafia and I won't say which i think is more likely.

You kinda skipped the fact I hinted here that I felt one of them more likely to be then the other. Care to take a guess on which side I was leaning? No? i felt not. Wouldn't want you to see how dumb you are. Moving on...

Korlash, I was already entirely aware of that ambiguous little sentence (why were you cryptic anyway?). The fact I was aware of it is pretty damn clear from this:

However, Korlash himself contradicts this because he himself is unconvinced as to whether Orig is vig or mafia.

To spell this out for you:
Your plan fails miserably if Orig is mafia; in fact, it is downright destructive.

Assuming you are town and that orig is either mafia or vig, for the sake of following your ridiculous logic:
Lynch townKorlash= 5:3 or 4:3:1

In 5:3, (Orig = Vig)
MafNK town = 4:3
Orig's vig NK = 3:3 or 4:2 (if no NK = 4:3)

In 4:3:1, (Orig= Mafia, ? = SK)
MafNK town = 3:3:1 P =4/5
SK NK Orig = 3:2 This one is basically certain since the SK needs to get rid of Orig

In other words, Korlash, you could hardly be sincere in your pledge that you are willing to die to give the town a "good chance of winning" when the best outcome which will likely result is LYLO and the worst is a mafia win.

You are grounding this in the ridiculous assumption that shaft.ed, dybeck and myself are 100% all 3 obvious scum. As I have already said, this is already immediately waived by the fact that you have yourself admitted that you are not 100% certain about Orig being vig. You initially were cryptic, then you said you think Orig is more likely. For your plan to even superficially make sense, you would need absolute certainty on Orig also. I got angry at dybeck for just being certain about Orig, but you are doing this threefold (fourfold if you again modify your view of Orig).

Now,

Korlash's Big List of False Claims

Korlash himself contradicts this because he himself is unconvinced as to whether Orig is vig or mafia.

See above. This is not false.

So, since you state originality is mafia if scum, please explain how lynching originality is an efficient use of the town's lynch today.

Shaft.ed is absolutely correct here. If Orig is mafia, then it is stupid of us to lynch him because his NK by the SK is all but guaranteed.

Your avatar says "100% vanilla". 'Nuff said.

I'm pretty sure that I am literate.

But Korlash's subsequent comments have made it clear that he was trying to claim vanilla:

Rather than refute this myself, I will just quote you:

So in general, I hinted at vanilla

So you're in a position where you suspect Oman may have claimed something that is not your role. Is it me or does the most logical conclusion stemming from this statement seem to be that you are mafia?

Reasonable given what you had said.

Why on earth did you just claim vanilla?!

You claimed. This is not a lie/misrep/whatever.

Korlash, it is not role-fishing for me to tell you not to claim vanilla. Any player with a grain of sense would do exactly the same thing.

Korlash, DON'T CLAIM DOC! Was that role-fishing? No.

Telling somebody not to claim is not role-fishing. It's idiotic that you would suggest it is. The only difference between the example I just gave and the present case is that you actually claimed vanilla.

You claimed vanilla. I don't care if it is genuine or not and I have no intention of pursuing any further, but you should know that claiming vanilla when you are not under pressure of lynch is incredibly anti-town.

This feels like I am banging my head against a wall...or desk.

And if you don't have a role it means that the scum are more likely to hit a power role.

If scum don't target a vanilla they are more likely to hit a power role...seems perfectly sensible to me.

a) If you are vanilla, it means that the scum know that you are safe not to NK and have a higher likelihood of hitting a power role.
b) If you are a power role, it draws attention onto yourself which can result in suspicion which can result in forced claim, which just flags you to the scum.

As with the above, this is a FACT. I don't see how you can construe it as a "false claim".

Why bring it up at all? You were in absolutely zero pressure.

Not false. You were under no pressure.

No. I knew precisely what you meant. My point is that it is no defence/explanation/excuse/justification/whatever word you want to use to simply claim vanilla and then suggest we all move on.

Claiming vanilla is no defence/excuse/etc. Again, this is not a false claim.

It is inherently anti-town when done prematurely (as yours was).

BZZT. FACT. NEXT

Claiming a power role would be idiotic, but it would not be incriminating. I would be pissed as all hell if you did that, because that can only help the scum, but it would not incriminate you.

Oh boy. Here, you are either saying that it is false that prematurely claiming a power role is idiotic, which is an idiotic thing in itself, or you are asserting that I am making a false claim that I myself would be "pissed as all hell"

The fact remains that you had no reason to claim vanilla.

We've been over this already. Stop being obtuse.

Surely you realise that your priority should be helping the town, not ensuring your own survival.

*trips* If THIS is a false claim...then you should be lynched right here and now.

b) It is bad for town if you are telling the truth about being vanilla because:
I) Scum will NK elsewhere and will likely hit a powerrole
II) You may have now drawn suspicion onto yourself and not onto scum

FACT.

2) I would prefer to keep a RB/Vig over a modest vanilla you any day.

This is about my own personal preference (which makes sense). How the hell do you warrant calling this false??!?

Those are my biggest issue ATM... Each one has a small part, or a large part, or the whole thing that I disagree with. Please do not point out which of these is obviously not false, or try and put words into my mouth here. If you want to know why i disagree with a specific one ask, and then I will explain. Then, you will be able to point out where I may be mistaken, and where My argument may have a flaw in it.

I don't need to point out a few of them. They are all complete rot.

I am town, It means nothing to you, it proves nothing, but to me it means I am 100% sure I am town. So, when I "hint," or even 'semi-claim" if you want, at any role (Mafia, vanilla, power role) the mafia can in no way know what I am talking about. So, when a person or persons push me up against the wall saying my claim hurt the town, it made me feel like those people were trying to either get me to admit I had a role, or to further admit I was vanilla. If the mafia knew either of these then of course your arguments made sense. If they were sure I was vanilla they would know who to hit for a cop/doc likeliness. So I found it scummy you guys kept pushing my "claim" no matter how many times I tried to defend myself/ say I did not claim. Thus I called it role fishing earlier and just recently said you were trying to weed me out. Whether or not this was your intention you cannot deny that the more we talked about it the more likelihood that I actually claimed and thus gave the mafia info. As of right now I am still pretty much an unknown and thus still a gamble for a NK. Could be good, could be bad. keep pushing and I know it will be bad.

Korlash, you claimed vanilla. Nobody has been rolefishing, because you claimed.

My intention was to reprimand you for doing something inherently anti-town. Then you struck out without your vapid theorising and have now peaked my scumdar.

I feel I have been scum hunting the whole time. And I also think I may have found three scum. So, while you seem to want to make it very clear I am the one keeping us from scum hunting, You yourself could very much go on and question others and me at the same time. I mean I cannot be held responsible the others are not posting. I find it odd Originality and Elias and AllyG and Lucienne and Gemelli are not actively participating in this. So it is not totally my fault no "scum hunting" is being done aside from what I am doing.

Perhaps if you focused more on them and the same on me (or even less... But you don't have too) some additional hunting would get done.

Huh?!?! I thought shaft.ed/dybeck/myself were the 3 obvious 100% scum. As such, why should you even care what we do?

That last sentence...it's just brilliant.

I think we've hooked one.

[vollkan]

EBWOP:= In my previous post, the second quote should read:

However, Korlash himself contradicts this because he himself is unconvinced as to whether Orig is vig or mafia.

and not

However, Korlash himself contradicts this because he himself is unconvinced as to whether Orig is vig or mafia.

[vollkan]

As such, I do not think that shaft.ed and vollkan are out of bounds for their suspicions on you. The main point you seem to be making is that (A) you did not actually claim vanilla, but only hinted strongly at it, and (B) vollkan and shaft.ed are twisting your words to state that you did actually claim. THIS IS SEMANTICS. IT DOES NOT MATTER. I think (hope) that all three of you will at least agree that Korlash did strongly hint at a vanilla role. Let's focus the discussion on how that information affects the game, NOT on the specific words that were used. OK?

I agree with this; it basically what I have been saying this whole time. He did not explicitly say "I am vanilla", but he effectively did so anyway.

This was the only quote on Korlash's list that I think merits attention. Vollkan, whether there are good reasons for him to feel one way or the other is beside the point. In his post, he indicated that he did have a strong opinion, but does not want to share it at this time. I didn't see anything in his posts that indicates a waffling position. Remember, not everyone in the game thinks the same way as you. It's not reasonable to state someone's intentions based on how YOU would think about a situation.

I addressed this with my numbers thing. His whole notion of sacrificing himself revolves around 100% certainty about shaft.ed, dybeck. Orig and myself, which is just ridiculous at the best of times. Isn't this immediately rendered dubious by the fact that he has even some uncertainty as to whether or not Orig is mafia?

Korlash- I gave my opinion on the situation earlier. For now, I'd like to see where this goes, but I don't have the time to write up things as well as Vollkan has done. Do I think you're scum? I don know. From personal experience, I know that Vollkan has a way of getting contradictions out of people, perhaps even if they didnt make them.

Yes. This is a bit of a problem of mine which came up between Elias and myself in Mini 486. I have a bad habit of "over-arguing". Once I get started on somebody I literally have to force myself to take another view (ie. what I did before by forcing myself to go Devil's Advocate on Elias).

[vollkan]

I am pretty sure I told you guys that at the time I posted my "claim" I did not see it as being bad for town. I personally do not see how a vanilla claim should bring suspicion on me (at least I didn't then, I do now.) So when people began to say that I was being bad for town I took it as if they were using a BS case against me. After the 2 or so pages of talk I see their point, and so I feel no more need to discuss it. I was wrong to say it and now that I know I will be more careful in future games. And because I know I was wrong discussing it only puts me more and more into scum zone.

Good. I like the fact that you are admitting error (In a good way).

Lets say, hypothetically, I am the Doc. How would my death in anyway help the town's win condition? I could save one of the two known roles we have seen today from a NK. My death today could actually spell town's defeat. (Sorta. Depends on the Vig here.)

Now lets say I am the Cop. Being the cop I would of course be a valuble asset on day three. (Two people known. Provided they are still alive.) again, seeing as how there is no real chance of me being NKed from the mafia (Because two others are already claimed) how can my death today benefit town? (sure we will still have the Doc, but it's still kind bad for town.)

Now say I am a vanilla towny. If we lynch me, we lose a town and the mafia do not lose anyone, if I am NKed by vig we of course loose two townies tonight. and if I am NKed by mafia well... Then it is pretty much a sure thing every other towny has a role and so it could very well lead to a he said she said claim-a-thon tomorrow.

So in no way is my death going to help the town's win condition (Unless I am mafia. Which I am not, but it is th other possibility.)

You can also get in to the fact I could very well be the vig or tracker and have chosen not to speak up about it. But if that is the case then I wouldn't mind dying to disprove their claim. So I suppose you can almost safely say I am not one of those.

Don't strawman; I never said that townie deaths

help

the town. What I said is that the priority for townies is the town, not themselves. Being a power role complicates things, but it doesn't alter that basic fact.

My argument with him has very little to do with that. It stems from that small window of opportunity of a trio I saw before, but now it gets into the fact that he more or less said many of the things Vollkan said, which I thought were all non-sense. After working my ass off for the last two days strait I have had nothing to do but go over this game in my head a few times I can can see their side a bit more then I did before and I am starting to believe I did overreact to a lot. I was so paranoid everyone woudl come after me for what Oman did I was quick to get the fact I am not mafia out there. Now that I have come to terms with how bad that is I really don't know what to do. There are a few arguments I made I will defend, and a few of them I now fully disagree with myself about so eh...

Again, good.

As for the breadcrumb false role claim thing it's basically what just happened now. Perhaps at some point he just claimed vanilla for some reason. I would hate to claim my actual role if everyone already assumed I was vanilla. Which is why I wanted to be sure before I (in my mind) started to claim. And that is a big reason I felt so strongly on my "No claim" thing. I did not want to admit I had claimed vanilla in anyway until I was sure Oman had not done something else. Otherwise it brings up a full contradiction and thus a good scum attack on me. now that i more or less know he did not claim I am able to stop insisting my claim was not that.

I don't get this...If what you are saying is true, that still fails to explain why you did the "my avvy says it all" thing, which amounts to a vanilla claim in effect.

If you had simply said "I am town", then this would make sense.

To clarify what I am saying: Supposing, unbeknown to yourself, Oman had claimed cop on page 20. Your avatar-claim thing would then make you look odd and contradictory.

Yes, I wanted to make everyone think I was vanilla. Like I said, I did not at the time see how this was harmful, so I thought it ok. I thought it would be a great way to not be NKed because two other power roles have been claimed already. I stick to my "selfish" reason, mostly because if I am a power role that reason is less likely to get me NKed and if I am a vanilla towny then... well Hopefully I have not read 35 pages for nothing ^^

Scum are always more likely to target claimed power roles over unclaimed townies, unless they are playing wifom or going anti-player. You did not improve your survival chances by claiming vanilla.

Also a side note, this late in the game I feel any town death is going to cause us to be that closer to defeat so I can see how me not wanting to die is also a good pro-town thing. I won't push it because I agree every towny should be willing to die to win, but two more townies dead by tomorrow leave us little hope don't you think?

Yes, it's generally accepted that town deaths hurt the town...

Your vanilla claim, if anything, hurt your chances of surviving today and will have no impact on the fact that mafia NK a town tonight.

Hence, it only really has a negative effect for the town overall.

Yeah I was mostly taking my top suspect, Vollkan, and placing him in league with the most likely partner I found ( I think I illustrated that point a long time ago in my questions for Vollkan thing.) and my second choice and pushing them together as a trio. At the same time I was juggling the idea that Vollkan and two people I had not heard were the scum, and if so You and Dybeck (the ones I most suspected as his partners) would be a good NK choice to throw all heat off of him. I more or less disagree with this now as I see all my own flaws. I still admit you and Vollkan have a few things linking you, but no more then any player-to-player links you gain during a 45 page game. As for a Vollkan-Dybeck link, I admit the degree of distancing that would require is pretty unnecessary so I also find myself different minded on that one.

"Top suspect"? If you are now accepting my comments regarding the vanilla claim, then what is your case against me?

If this is true then I am slightly less inclined to think he is scum. If he has in fact been playing this way all game (I may not have noticed it on my read) then The fact he seemed to come at me like he did doesn't seem as scummy as it did earlier. I admit this right here is a good reason some of my suspicion on Vollkan has dropped (among other things) and so if what he said is false I woudl like someone to mention it. Or even say how true it is. It would save me a lot of reread time.

Just look at my title: "The Interrogator" if you want some proof. I got that for my argumentative approach.

I do not think it requires %100 certainty on all of you, seeing as how one of those four has a good chance of being mafia no matter how you look at it. It actually only requires a mafia vig kill. One mafia death gives us some leeway, and so losing a towny for a lynch will not be as bad. (Still bad, but not game losing)

It does require 100% certainty to be viable.

Look, you are saying now that dybeck, shaft.ed, Orig and myself all have a good chance of being mafia.

Typically, there are only 3-member mafias in minis.
As such, you are already expressing uncertainty about the identity of one the members.
Moreover, if Orig is mafia, there is no guarantee as to whether we have a vig or SK.

So...let's run through the scenarios with NUMBERS! (because you all love them so much <3)

Orig = vig

Lynch townKorlash = 5:3
MafNK = 4:3
Orig NK = 4:2 LYLO or 3:3 LOSS (4:3 LYLO if no NK)

If Orig is wrong in targeting the mafia, we lose. Hence, if you have ANY doubts whatsoever about any of your top suspects, this plan is just not worth contemplating.

Moreover, even if Orig succeeded, we would be in LYLO at best, so I don't see why you would really be willing to have yourself lynched.

If Orig = mafia and there is a vig

Lynch townKorlash = 5:3
MafNK = 4:3
VigNK Orig = 4:2 LYLO

The vig will target Orig who is confirmed mafia. Again, this puts us in LYLO at best so it is hardly desirable for you to give yourself for it.

If Orig = mafia and there is a SK

Lynch townKorlash = 4:3:1
MafNK = 3:3:1 (P=4/5)
SKNK Orig = 3:2:1 MESSY

Pretty much the same deal as above.

I hope you see what I am saying.

Also what is the exact definition of a soft claim? I don;t want to do any comment about it if I do not fully understand it.

They may have been referring to your claim being only-slightly-less-than-explicit. I have also seen the phrase "soft claim" be used when people say "I am town".

Unvote

but I maintain an

FoS

on you.

[vollkan]

It was more for the vig actually. Because Oman was playing poorly I did not know if the Vig (Who you all say we shoudl keep alive, thus I am sure he will be here tonight) would target him for any past actions. So I claimed town in hopes he would not target me. (Even though a claim is not proof, I had hoped it would help.)

I wasn't so worried about the mafia, although I am always in fear of them having a power role in these big games, like tracker or RB or something. And they may find it useful to leave the Vig alive and go after a more useful role (I.e. Cop, doc, etc...) and thus would hit an unknown towny.

Orig has been ordered not to NK, punishable by his own lynching. He won't NK. Thus, I don't get why you would be concerned about Orig.

*skips the number part*

I really wish you would not be so ridiculous about my numbers.

I'll summarise it: your "plan" would, at best, put us in LYLO and at it's VERY likely worst cause us to lose. It is horribly anti-town.

Also I still want to know exactly how it was my fault the scum hunting was held up... Thats the only part of your guy's attacks on me I cannot see... Perhaps you can help me out there Vollkan...

If you are town, your blunder created a cause for suspicion which has now consumed a considerable amount of time and discussion and has progressed us nowhere, other than having more suspicion on on.

[vollkan]

Actually, because I am a replacement I am more or less an unknown

No. Oman existed.

I have several other things to say, but I need to read over a few things first.

Also,

Korlash, I have a question: If, hypothetically, I was lynched today and came up town, who should Orig vig tonight?

[vollkan]

Korlash, I have a question: If, hypothetically, I was lynched today and came up town, who should Orig vig tonight?

Well the obvious answer would be me wouldn't it. Just based on all my bad attacks on you. But if your asking for my most likely scum, Dybeck is top right now(Not that he is anywhere near vote worthy yet, he is just top of a really small list)

The bad attacks would make you look scummy, yes. To make my question clearer: From your own perspective, who would you want NKed in the scenario I described?

It has always been my problem when it comes to a night killing role I tend to lean towards the town side.

(especially when they claim Vig)

I consider an SK in the "mafia" side of my quote. The only thing I didn't see then is if there is an SK then there is most likely no Vig and thus my quote is incomplete.

"especially when they claim vig"...because there are so many other pro-town nightkilling roles.

I would also like a game reference for your "always been my problem" thing. Thanks.

Yes, Oman existed. But as Gem pointed out I cannot speak for him. You can say "Oman was scummy when he did this this and this! Answer why he did those!" All I can say is "Um... I have no idea..." and thus your stuck. So even though you have a lot to go on, you had nothing on me personally. I mean if I had acted %100 pro-town it wouldn't even matter how Oman had been playing because you would have no evidence against me. So I always think a replacement needs to get heard.

Divorcing yourself from your very scummy predecessor entirely. Interesting. I need to think.

[vollkan]

Streeflo, I unvoted Korlash in #1166:

Unvote but I maintain an FoS on you.

Unvote

[vollkan]

No. I did not revote you. Streeflo just overlooked my unvote.

Anyway, Korlash, if you missed my question from before, I will quote it below:

Korlash, I have a question: If, hypothetically, I was lynched today and came up town, who should Orig vig tonight?

Well the obvious answer would be me wouldn't it. Just based on all my bad attacks on you. But if your asking for my most likely scum, Dybeck is top right now(Not that he is anywhere near vote worthy yet, he is just top of a really small list)

The bad attacks would make you look scummy, yes. To make my question clearer: From your own perspective, who would you want NKed in the scenario I described?

[vollkan]

Streeflo, the votecount is still wrong You removed dybeck's vote for korlash instead of mine

NKed by the vig? Hmmm... Dybeck. It's not much of a question. It's pretty much "who do you most suspect as mafia?" and I have already told you that.

But if your question was merely to prod me to see if I actually want someone NKed then the answer is yes. I feel if we have a Vig we need to use him. But that is just my opinion. I suppose it's a good thing I am not the vig here huh? lolz... >.> <.<

Right.

Korlash, in the scenario I described, a misvig causes a town loss. That was the purpose of my question; to see how much concern you have for the consequences of things, evidently

not much

.

Now, to continue with what I was saying yesterday before I began trying to press this question out:

So overall, while it is not good to put me in that much "danger" it is very much needed for me to "talk."

This is a poor, reaching excuse to justify things in hindsight.

No offense but if someone "ordered" me to not do a night action it wouldn't automatically mean I won't do it. You are basically saying "If you NK we will automatically lose this game." Because you are saying you will lynch a towny tomorrow if he NKs and thus I think we lose.

So if I were him I would not take you seriously.

Also, If I have a strong suspicion of someone I would NK them as vig anyways. If I hit town, then we go to lynch or lose. But if I hit mafia then we have a chance. It's a gamble, but some people may see it as a good move. Plus I do not see Originality as the best person to put my trust in keeping his word. So yeah, I am afraid he is going to NK. And I will be afraid no matter what he says.

Your risk assessment is WAY OFF here. It is not a "gamble"; it is effectively suicide.

I really dislike the bolded sentence. The way you have worded it, it looks to me like you are recommending that Orig ignore our demands.

So even though you have a lot to go on, you had nothing on me personally. I mean if I had acted %100 pro-town it wouldn't even matter how Oman had been playing because you would have no evidence against me. So I always think a replacement needs to get heard.

Here you are trying to divorce yourself from Oman's actions.

Man, I'm losing the vast memory stores that this game used to occupy. I'd have to say even with Korlash's recent postings, I think he's managed to drop about as many scum tells in the last three pages as Oman did in the first 43 pages. But his posting seems to be very stream of conciousness, and seat of his pants. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it, but the list of contradictions is troubling. I'll have to make more time for a thorough analysis. If he is mafia, he's either really really paranoid or really really ballsy.

What we are seeing here, is Korlash coming into this game with a tremendous and very dodgy attack (particularly that list of contradictions), being royally defeated in argument and now retreating to this "stream of consciousness" style where he is basically just denying all his past actions on the basis of him being wrong at the time.

If it means anything, a meta-check of Korlash shows his

unique

style of posting is at least consistent with his play overall. That suggests that we might pay more attention to the scumminess of what he is saying, rather than the bizarre way he says things.

[vollkan]

Also it is five to lynch yes? so I am not putting a L-1 vote here so Vote: Dybeck

Please explain your vote on me with specific details, and stop just posting worthless stuff. I would appreciate some real posts out of you for a change. (At least while I have been playing. Maybe he used to post good stuff.)

Why are you so concerned about not being the one to drop the L-1 vote? That indicates that you have concern about the ramifications of the lynch.

[vollkan]

define "stream of consciousness", "divorce yourself from Oman's actions.", and "unique style of posting."

"Stream of consciousness" - Difficult to define precisely. In mafia, it is usually used to describe a posting style which is very loose and subjective (like yours). It is not scummy, but it is confusing.

"divorce yourself from Oman's actions" - You said that you have no understanding of Oman and that we have nothing on you personally. In other words, you are trying to get a clean slate, rather than one marked by Oman's actions.

"unique style of posting" - You use "hmm" a lot and talk about your own understanding of things more than anything else. I guess, it's that your approach is a very subjective one whereas most people try to be as objective as possible.

We lynch town, Mafia NK's town, Orig kills town= 3 town dead. If you lynch Orig tomorrow it is game over. so obviously either you would rather lose then have a pretty good chance of killing a mafia, Or your a mafia trying to stop the vig from killing a mafia.

Yes, I would lynch Orig tomorrow. We have no confirmation of Orig's alignment. If he is town, he will not NK tonight. VigOrig needs the town to win to win himself, so he is not going to take a course of action which would cause a town loss.

Now take We lynch town, Mafia NK town, Orig kills mafia. Would you lynch him for that? i mean he took out a mafia. I find it hard to believe you would sacrifice two more townies just because he did something protown.

In that situation, we are in 4:2 LYLO. If Orig did not NK, we would be in 4:3 LYLO. It isn't worth the risk. A vig would not do it.

Now we come to we lynch mafia, Mafia NKs town, Orig NK's mafia. We just turned the tables on the mafia. Would you waste day three killing a known towny when there is only one mafia left?

BUT he is NOT a known townie! He could be SK. In that scenario, a no vig would make us 5:2 whereas a mafia vig would make it 5:1. If, however, he stuffed up, we are in LYLO. Again, it is not a risk that a sensible vig would take.

And what I meant with my bolded sentence is that your claim to "lynch if he NKs" seems to me a very anti-town thing, if you actually plan to follow it up. I could definitely see that as a mafia way to prevent a nk from a vig. Then again I can also see it as a towny thing to say, I just do not see a towny actually letting 5 townies die this late in the game.

The ball is entirely in Orig's court. You don't seem to get it:
If Orig vigs, his action is inherently anti-town because he is taking a MASSIVE risk which we really cannot afford. The only sure-fire deterrent to him, is to mandate his own lynching. I do not want to lynch Orig, but it is the only threat which will ensure he does nothing.

8 members alive tonight, 3 mafia (unless we lynch one of them today.) 2 already known town, so it comes down to a 3-3 chance of hitting a scum if you are the vig. pretty good odds in my book. Granted if we lynch maifa there is less reason to Nk. But I still find it odd you are so sure he wont Nk someone. I mean at least harbor the idea in your mind that he will choose to do his own thing and not listen to you. I'm not saying lynch him, but be ready for tomorrow to come and have 2 dead players is all.

Korlash, you are ignoring the fact that if Orig fails, we lose. That is an unacceptable risk, particularly when the odds are only 50-50 (which you seem to think is good).

I need to

see something

,

Vote: dybeck

[vollkan]

Also, I think it odd after my last statement you would just post a L-1 vote on dybeck without any stated reasons. Why do you feel Dybeck is worth a L-1 vote? And why did you bold "see something"?

Unvote

A very risky tactic, that has just succeeded.

Let me explain:

I do not feel the reasons I have given to be enough to put at L-1. If I wanted to do that I would at least want to name specific examples, quotes, reasons I am voting, etc. Right now I am merely trying to show him we have not forgotten him and he still needs to be active.

You said that you did not feel him being worth L-1.

So, I put him at L-1. If you really were being sincere, you would have unvoted, slapped a HoS on me and then proceeded to demand a full explanation.

Instead, you merely question me.

[vollkan]

I had to post that bit quickly, to get my vote down asap. Given the lurking, I figured it was safe, but I do not want to run any risks.

The fact is Korlash, you just tolerated dybeck being at L-1. That is important, since you just said that you did not want dybeck at L-1.

HoS: Korlash

my personal feelings should take a side step for what is in towns best interest

Your personal feelings should be in the town's best interest anyway....

[vollkan]

OK... I'm sorry that it's come to this. I tried to put in as clear terms as I could.

Originality is scum.

It should be enough for you that he was found with a rope in his hand, standing over the dead body of somebody who was clearly town. It appears that this is not the case, since I'm the one at L-1.

Therefore you should know that he was also the subject of my cop investigation last night, which turned him up guilty.

I'm glad I didn't claim earlier, though. We've learned a lot from today.

First up, you are not at L-1. I unvoted you just 20 minutes after my "vote", which was just a trap for Korlash to see how sincere he was being about him not wanting you at L-1 (evidently, he was not very). Your claim was premature and unnecessary.

Now, more importantly:

Claimed Power Roles

dybeck
AlyG

Scum

Orig

Unknowns (likely 3 of whom are scum)

Elias_the_thief
Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne
volkann
shaft.ed

This means that we have a SK, obviously.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If we look at lynching Orig:

Thus, we must assume we are 5:3:1.

If Orig is SK, we lynch him and we go to 4:3 LYLO.

If Orig is mafia,
Lynch mafOrig = 5:2:1
Mafia NK makes it 4:2:1 in wcs
SKNK then makes it 3:2:1 in wcs.

In other words, in wcs, if we lynch Orig today we come up at 3:2:1 (if mafia) or 4:3 LYLO (if SK).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If we do not lynch Orig, things depend on whether he is mafia or SK. If mafia, the SK needs to take him out tonight to have a hope. If Orig is SK, then the mafia may try their luck and keep him alive to force us into a bad situation.

Assuming the latter, worser option:
Mislynch = 4:3:1
MafNK town = 3:3:1
Orig's SK NK = 2:3:1 or 3:2:1.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
All in all, I think it more likely that Orig is SK than mafia.
Reaons:
1) His strong desire to dissociate himself from the NK shows that he felt personally culpable. Mafia generally do not do that sort of thing
.
.
.
.
2) Strangling is very SK-ish, bludgeoning is very mafia-ish (I hate to refer to the MOs, but this strikes me as significant)

I don't mean this to be conclusive, and I assure you I will look at things again, but I am currently thinking Orig is SK.

I am not going to vote Orig until I think about this a bit more. If he is SK, we are going to be putting ourselves in LYLO if we lynch him.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Something else to consider:
The possibility that dybeck is the SK. SKdybeck knows that Orig is mafia and wants him gone. SKdybeck thought he was at L-1, panicked and claimed cop, using Orig's guilty lynch as hopeful proof of him being cop.

[vollkan]

You can't predict how I will play. No matter how many games you have been in, no matter how much you have played this game, there is no way you can chalk up how others play this game.

This is completely true and I am judging you by my own standards in this regard, which is why I need comment from other people to tell me whether I am being too harsh here.

I would argue, though, that townies would react with a significant degree of alarm to someone randomly throwing a L-1 vote.

To be honest with you the fact that it was your vote to put him at L-1 i kinda figured it would only be on him like an hour at the most.

Interesting. You figured I would not do something anti-town.

You post even more then I do, and you come up with some pretty iffy "traps" in my opinion.

This trap was never meant to be an Obv scum catcher, I was merely interested to see how you would react.

Now, if you had provided any sorta viable reasoning for your vote on him I would have unvoted. I wouldn't have gave you a FoS or anything, but I wouldn't keep my vote on someone that close to a lynch without my own reasons.

Very strange reasoning here.

You were happy to keep your vote on him when I did not explain myself, but you say you would not do so if I did explain myself.

The obvious difference is that if I explained myself I would look more serious, however, I don't see why that difference should alter your own actions. There is still as much chance of someone hammering if I am serious as if I am doing it for other reasons.

More importantly, you

asked

me for my reasons that I felt dybeck was worth a L-1 vote. In other words, at the time you thought my vote was a serious one, which goes entirely against what you are saying now.

besides there is no way anyone would have hammered him after that. I mean vote dybeck, vote dybeck, hammer dybeck just screams scum in my opinion. And no one is that stupid. So while you may think this trap of yours worked, (which is a sense it did, yet it still feels kinda lacking) I can hardly say it implies what your saying it does.

Oh for sure, a hammerer would be obv scum. I don't see why this is relevant here though. You are talking about things happening quickly and ignoring a more prolonged hammer.