Mini 680: Portlandia- Game Over!

[icemanE]

Howdy, here and reading.

[icemanE]

unvote

while I read up...

[icemanE]

- Sorry there was such a lag from my replacing to my posting – I got a pm from Hach that didn’t say anything about me replacing, it was just a box. Didn’t get the actually PM till today.

- Highly doubt there’s a jester – Xtoxm has played scummily for sure, and he blew up and self-voted himself which I really don’t like at all. Whether it was a scummy self-vote or born of town frustration is debatable.

- In my opinion, it’s entirely possible that there are at least 2 cops in a game with a miller. Having two cops of varying sanities is actually a hinderance to the town until they both claim. I am going to work under the assumption that if there are at least two cops, we may not have a doc. The miller is a tool for the cops to use in order to determine their sanities. It’s too bad they all claimed as it will potentially be more difficult, as one of the cops will probably be NK’d, but either way we will have two cop left over whose sanity can be determined by their results on the miller, and I see no reason to doubt X’s claim at this stage. Now that they’ve all claimed, we can sort out their sanities and use them: I think the cops should all investigate X tonight in order to determine their sanities. If one of the cops is killed tonight, we will have a better idea on who to lynch tomorrow, if tomorrow we feel there are not 3 cops. For now, we shouldn’t lynch a cop claim or the miller, clearly. Chaz voiced this and I agree entirely.

- No lynches on day one are never good, at least from my experience.

vote: Mr Adams

[icemanE]

@ Adams if you're going to claim do it ASAP as we are basically at deadline and there's little time to mess around.

[icemanE]

Right, the whole point is to clear up sanities. They HAVE to target the same person or else the results are USELESS. The claimed miller is the clearly the best target.

Guess I missed Adam's VT claim. Regardless it seems he's our best bet for today - he's played a scummy game, and the worst case scenario is a lost VT. Clearly we don't want to screw around today.

[icemanE]

No, the ONLY reasonable plan is to determine our cops sanity tonight by having them investigate the miller. I've seen this scenario COUNTLESS TIMES on epic mafia and the ONLY THING that makes ANY SENSE is to figure out who's sane and who isn't. Otherwise it's an absolute mess for the rest of the game. With three cops, clearly it's hardly a tragedy if one of them ends up dead, so no, it isn't a waste to have them figure out whether or not whether or not their results are actually valid or not from there on out. Think about it for hog's sake.

[icemanE]

Plus, @ fark:

Let's say we have 3 actual cops. One cop will likely die overnight (if there's a doc, we may get lucky and have them protect the cop that scum targets, but that's only if we have a doc, and if they get lucky) Tomorrow, we may then have 2 cops, no useful results. Then one of our cops will likely be killed on N2, leaving us until Day 3 before we get a useful result.

... if we don't figure out whether or not our cops are sane or insane (and I HIGHLY DOUBT all of them are sane), we won't have a useful result EVER!

[icemanE]

This is ridiculousness. Are you going to trust anything these cops say unless their sanity is cleared up? If so, why? Are we simply going to lynch whomever they target tomorrow simply to decide whether or not they're sane? Isn't that more of a waste? Why aren't you thinking rationally?

[icemanE]

Sorry for the multiple posts, but I'm disappointed I got into the game so late - it would have been nice to have a couple more days to discuss this.

Mod: considering the circumstances surrounding my replacement, is there any chance we could get a 24 hour extended deadline? I understand if that's not OK.

[icemanE]

Whatever, guys.

mod - retract my deadline request

.

Clearly this group isn't going to listen to reason. Or spell guarantee correctly.

[icemanE]

I'm willing to go with what the town thinks is best. But letting the cops choose their own targets is ten times more useless than clearing them and getting at least one useful report out of them. Now that they've all claimed, it seems clear that minimizing the damage seems the best route, to me, but sure, let's have them randomly shoot in the dark and come up with what will most likely be useless reports. And by my plan, we'll have useful results on day 3 at the latest - how in god's name can you argue, chaz, that getting useful results on day 4 is more advantageous?

[icemanE]

I'm more than willing to listen to counter arguments to the posts I've just made.

See my last post.

[icemanE]

I guess so, chaz, but I really see many more problems and confusions arising from having the cops investigate randomly without knowing their sanities than I do from my plan. Realistically, we'll only have two cops tomorrow as it is, as even if there IS a doc, he only has a 33% chance of picking and protecting the right cop from a NK. Then, we have two reports which are initially useless. I don't see how verifying sanities isn't the best way to go - we will have one totally solid report, guaranteed on day 3, instead of three reports which have no bearing.

If I'm in the minority here, chances are I'm wrong. I'm speaking only from my own experience.

[icemanE]

Hmm, my thoughts on the issue were that, even if we had a confirmed insane cop, we'd know he was insane based on his investigation result, which would in essence turn him into a sane cop. But beyond that I agree with bio on the need to focus primarily on scumhunting. Nonetheless our cops are an aside that should be utilized for maximum potential.

[icemanE]

ice, do you want to discuss more, or should I hammer?

I think at this point you're OK to hammer - cops can look back at the thread, we've discussed the options.

[icemanE]

I think that's probably smart. Any reason for Zaz first?

[icemanE]

*sigh*

Sanities are not confirmed. I don't know if I can trust the guilty. We'll see what the other cop has to offer.

[icemanE]

Why?

[icemanE]

Why aren't you going to put any more effort into this game, is what I'm asking.

But then if you aren't putting in effort, I guess I shouldn't expect an answer...

[icemanE]

This makes me think it's probably a waste of time to lynch Xtoxm right now.

[icemanE]

I can't believe X isn't even attempting to defend against the reports. I think he's basically admitted he's scum without really saying it.

2 guilties is our best bet, clearly. Still kind of pitiful, I say, but if we have a scum,. we have a scum.

vote: Xtoxm

[icemanE]

Watch how you abbreviate, mister.

Oops. That's usually how I abbreviate Xtoxm. But of course I'll be more careful from now on.

@bio - why are two innocents just as likely to mean Xtoxm is guilty?

[icemanE]

So bio, what do you want to do with our cop data then? Throw it out completely?

[icemanE]

KoC is right. Luckily, the cops both picked the same target. That was my main concern last night - shotgunning cop investigations would be a huge waste.

To a degree I get the feeling one of the cops is scum, though. If I were to choose one, it would be G-Force, solely because he gave us his report second. I'm going to withhold judgment until tomorrow, though.

@ The Cops:

Why did you guys pick Xtoxm to investigate?

[icemanE]

Also, I don't like icemanE pushing the two gulities on Xtomx.

I don't like the way chaz is defending the scummiest player AGAINST TWO GUILTIES.

[icemanE]

Putting it in bold does not make it important.

...what's in bold?

Clearly some players are trying to get us offtrack here, dismissing cop reports. I don't know, I have a really good feeling in my stomach that the mod isn't going to throw more than two irregular cops into the game. Dismissing the two reports is just riduculous. Bio, if you don't see why Xtoxm is the scummiest thus far REGARDLESS of the reports, you need to read the game, not have someone lay out a PBPA for YOUR convenience.

[icemanE]

So your hunch is all 3 were / are sane?

No.

Or 2 are sane and one is irregular?

Maybe.

Or do you somehow know all 3 were telling the truth?

No.

Do you know both alive 'cops' are definitely cops?

No.

Q21 could be sane, one of the alive could be insane and the other could be fake.

Yes.

Sanities are not confirmed. I don't know if I can trust the guilty. We'll see what the other cop has to offer.

That's what I said. Then the other cop said he had a guilty. Ta da.

[icemanE]

Yes, but the other 'guilty' did not confirm any sanities. Yesterday you were quite clear that the reports were meaningless unless sanities were confirmed (you ignored those 2 quotes).

...You're saying I ignored my own quotes?

Yesterday I said we should check the miller and verify sanities. I still think we should have. We didn't, so that clearly had an effect on my position. If you need it, here's a clear explanation of my position:

We should lynch Xtoxm today for the following reasons:

A. He has played scummiest thus far.
B. Two cops (unconfirmed) have guilty reports on him.
Ba: This will help clear up sanities and perhaps allow us to decide whether or not one of the cop claims is a fake.
C. He essentially quit the game. Initially I thought it would be a waste of time to lynch him, but I've changed my mind.

I would like your thoughts on the possible roles of Zazier and G-Force with an explanation of why.

Why do you want me to speculate on roles?

[icemanE]

Are you seriously asking me that ridiculous question that someone seems to ask every game? Are you telling me I need MY OWN reasons to vote someone? That I can't

agree

with someone else's reasons?

PS - We've talked about this, I think, but is Xtoxm the jester? For God's sake, man...

[icemanE]

I'm not going to waste time defending what TSPN did.

Comment about no lynches on D1 never being good seems odd - there were enough active people and votes moving to get a lynch. Seems like a way to drop a vote on Adams without any reasons.

Yup, that was my main reason for voting him. No-lynches on day one are bad and I wanted to make sure one didn't happen.

561- iceman thinks it would be a waste of time to lynch Xtoxm right now.

Yup, since he said he wasn't going to play anymore. I was pissed that he said that - now he claims he's going to play.

565- says Xtoxm is admitting to being scum. Seems to lament his vote. Votes xtoxm

Here's the full post:

I can't believe X(toxm) isn't even attempting to defend against the reports. I think he's basically admitted he's scum without really saying it.

2 guilties is our best bet, clearly. Still kind of pitiful, I say, but if we have a scum,. we have a scum.

vote: Xtoxm

Where do I lament my vote? I think the fact that he said he was quitting when 2 guilties were produced was pitiful play. I don't think a town player would quit instead of defending himself. It's not protown play.

592 - completely contradicts his play from the previous day. Takes the 2 guilty reports and uses them to guide his reasoning

Yes, things change, and I've already been over this. Yesterday, if we'd followed what I'd said we'd have verified sanities today. We didn't. Therefore the plan needs to be amended.

Something I've noticed is a general trend site-wide is that people think "contradictions", which are actually amendments due to changing factors, are scumtells. This is totally invalid and I vow from now on to reprimand anyone who does it.

Finally, I want to say I am very much against any lynch just to confirm sanities.

NO ONE is suggesting we do this EXCEPT YOU. It's simply another perk included in lynching the scummiest player in the game, and that's all it's ever been presented as.

[icemanE]

I think bio is just generally loopy. Kind of reminds me of Wall-E, but more loopy.

[icemanE]

Three cops

is

a bit difficult to wrap your head around... but I'm still not convinced that disregarding their reports is a smart avenue to follow.

[icemanE]

What Xtoxm is currently discussing about probabilities and such of there being this cop or that cop is what I wanted to avoid by clearing them yesterday. But since we didn't we're in this giant outguess-the-mod mess. So I will attempt to understand what Xtoxm is trying to explain and think that over.

[icemanE]

We would have some basis other than lynching the player who the reports were on to decide if the cops were legit or not, that's how.

[icemanE]

Yeah, what X said basically explains my position and shift in view between yesterday and today. Clearly I had to change positions as it's too late to go by my original plan today.

[icemanE]

Here I am. Rock you like a hurricane.

My position hasn't changed. Cop reports aside I still think Xtoxm should be lynched today.

Of note:

I guess I don't have a concrete reason for that.

Business as usual.

[icemanE]

While bio's meta-case on Xtoxm is weak, as meta-cases often are, I still support the Xtoxm lynch for my previously stated reasons. However, the one part of the meta read that does implicate Xtoxm is this:

I haven't played anything like my fucking scum meta, this is the most fucking pro-town i've been in ages. You are idiots.

WTH? So we're supposed to believe that, because you aren't playing "in your scum meta" (as if scum are SUPPOSED to play scummy)... that you aren't scum? That's completely retarded.

[icemanE]

Please refresh my interest in this game by telling me why I'm scum.

[icemanE]

^^^^^fluff post

I will continue to mark these as they occur. They far outweigh your posts which contribute anything to the game.

I don't considering something a fluff post unless the person who posted it hasn't posted anything of use in awhile. I posted content earlier today.

[icemanE]

Are you seriously asking me that ridiculous question that someone seems to ask every game? Are you telling me I need MY OWN reasons to vote someone? That I can't agree with someone else's reasons?

Bio, if you don't see why Xtoxm is the scummiest thus far REGARDLESS of the reports, you need to read the game, not have someone lay out a PBPA for YOUR convenience.

But regardless of that,

We should lynch Xtoxm today for the following reasons:

A. He has played scummiest thus far.
B. Two cops (unconfirmed) have guilty reports on him.
Ba: This will help clear up sanities and perhaps allow us to decide whether or not one of the cop claims is a fake.
C. He essentially quit the game. Initially I thought it would be a waste of time to lynch him, but I've changed my mind.

Xtoxm has played scummily for sure, and he blew up and self-voted himself which I really don’t like at all.

Something I missed before:

Huh. Wasn't expecting them both to be guilty.

...which, to me, means he was expecting one of them to be guilty. Which, to me, means he's scum.

PERIOD.

[icemanE]

Now, as we're clearly at an impass here, I'm going to ask you who else you think is scum. Because all you've done today is push the xtoxm lynch.

Guess why that is?

And Zaz would be the second scoop in my scum sundae.

I've reviewed some of KoC's games and noted several instances of him pushing hard when he thinks he has scum. I don't see that nearly as much for you.

I don't understand what you're saying.

[icemanE]

Guess you haven't read enough of my games then.

[icemanE]

Riceball's planting an "I see you guys have picked a new target. Let me say I'm suspicious so I can jump on once the wagon starts rolling".

Just FYI.

[icemanE]

All I'm saying is you're wrong about my meta - but as I've already said, I don't give meta that much weight either way. Go figure.

Seeing someone get lynched on meta... I hate it. It just happened in a game I'm modding.

[icemanE]

Night results... how do you know what i am?

You pretty much better be a cop.

[icemanE]

And by that I mean your predecessor claimed cop. We have two cops verified and I'm not going to speak for everyone but I'm a little iffy on there being three cops.

[icemanE]

VTs

Whats a VT?

[icemanE]

Hmm... a fourth cop - I've seen that setup a lot at epicmafia. I would actually be willing to believe a four cop setup more than a three cop setup. Fourth cop clearly shouldn't claim right now, but for the moment I will but fat's claim, but hold off on acting on the results till someone tells me I'm stupid.

[icemanE]

Unless the fourth cop is smart. There's always that chance.

[icemanE]

I'm cool lynching RBT today.

vote: RBT

[icemanE]

I'm almost certain that chaz is scum. Why are you freaking out about two votes? Especially if you think the cop is scum... for some reason...

[icemanE]

Okay, i just have one quick question for everyone. Lets all pretend i really am the cop, and not just a scum trying to pull a fast one, how important would my thoughts be on everyone, if you wouldn't be able to draw connections to people, since im not scum. because the way i see it, we will have a relatively quick lynch today either way. Either everyone decides im lying scum, and lynch me, then RBT tomorrow, or we lynch RBT today and i get NK'd, which makes me read 31 pages, which will prolly take me till the end of the week, to just die. so if my thoughts are really important to someone, ill gladly do it, but if you don't care, i say we lynch RBT and move on.

Actually in reflection I really don't like the sound of "let's all pretend i really am the cop, and not just a scum trying to pull a fast one..." so I guess I will unvote for a minute.

unvote

[icemanE]

ice - why did you tell him what his predecessor claimed?

Guess I didn't think it all the way through - but it's not like I was the first to say something about it:

afatchic - post night results ASAP

So, IMO, you shouldn't be asking.

While I'm obviously happier with this point of view change, why wasn't this noticed before? Espcially before you voted?

I thought "in reflection" explained it well.

For the moment, I'd also like to FoS Ice. Scummiest player in the game right now, and I was ready to lynch him before I heard afatchic's investigation result. I'm still willing to entertain it. I really wish that he had been the investigation target last night - would have made things simpler.

As always I'd like to hear why.

[icemanE]

1. butt
2. butt.
3. BUTT!

[icemanE]

Yeah, clearly fark is scum distancing from me and rice.

@fat:

Since when is voting someone rushing lylo? Not like I hammered him. I've been playing my whole game based on cops so it shouldn't seem like something new.

[icemanE]

Nope. Because I'm not "the lynch", I'm a vote.

[icemanE]

I don't remember, but can you show me somewhere, between where you replaced and where i replaced, where you have said that you was suspicious of Chaz?

Right there, the message you quoted.

care to elaborate? maybe even put a few names in there.

I was just showing that I can write butt three different ways and it'll come across different each way.

[icemanE]

you said you lynched yesterday because xtox was scummy. No cop sanities were known, so how were you basing your gae on cops yesterday?

I've talked about cops in one way or another in most (that is, over 50%) of my posts, that includes yesterday. I didn't want Xtoxm lynched to straighten out cop sanities, but I always knew it would be an added bonus. And here we are today with sanities known, and I don't see a whole heck of a lot of reason to doubt fat is the cop.

[icemanE]

I don't see a whole heck of a lot of reason to doubt fat is the cop.

...except that fat evidently doesn't trust his own investigation...

Why would you unvote a person you were sure is guilty? I have no idea what to make of that, at all.

[icemanE]

Yeah but if he's scum he's probably not gonna kill you now. Evidently no one trusts your reports.

[icemanE]

Well I guess that's WIFOM, but whatever. I still think we should trust your report - I have a feeling there's a fourth cop out there.

[icemanE]

Well, it's because I'm a cop. Night one result was a guilty on rice. Night two - innocent on fat.

I really didn't want to claim because the cops are obviously going to continue getting mowed down. I wanted to wait until at least tomorrow, but I guess it makes just as much sense to do it now. I was really doubting the truths of all these cop claims (because I was a cop) but the more I thought about it, the more it reminded me of the 4 cop setup at epicmafia that fat and I were talking about. I kept trying to hint at it today without having to come right out and claim. I have a feeling I'm the sane cop, if fat's the insane cop, which I'm putting my money on because he got a guilty on Xtoxm.

[icemanE]

@ fat -

I picked rice pretty much at random night one. I tried to get everyone to check the miller, but it was pretty clear that wasn't going to happen at the end of day one.

I suppose claiming today wasn't the greatest idea but its only the second time I've played cop, and I'm making a lot of my assumptions about this setup based on the epicmafia setup I was referring to - which might not be the best idea, but the epicmafia setup with four cops also has a doc. You and I are going to be confirmed sanities if rice flips scum, and odds are good one of us is going to die tonight - but in the event that there's a doc, we'll be in a pretty good position heading into the endgame, as bio pointed out. Plus, if there's a doc, there's a chance neither of us will die tonight, and then we'll really be set.

Vote Count as of post 875

(3)No Lynch: X, Farkshinsoup, afatchic
(1)Riceballtail: bionicchop2

Not Voting:, icemanE, Riceballtail, Knight of Cydonia, chazworthington
5 votes to lynch.

[icemanE]

Alright, I got this when you said this before you claimed, but I don't see how you would say this if you were a Cop...could you explain this further?

I was still trying to keep a low profile at that point. I wanted to be subtle to keep from being targeted - I think I say something like that a few times to offset the breadcrumbs.

[icemanE]

Offset breadcrumbs - in other words, make them less obvious, blend them with other stuff.

[icemanE]

icemanE explaining why he didn't consider the possibility that he was insane

I thought I already explained it, but it's obvious fat's insane because of the results fat got - and it's setup speculation i guess but i don't see there being more than one insane cop - and I wouldn't be able to figure out my own alignment until others had been figured out, which didn't happen till today. Like I said, the reason I wanted everyone to target X and figure out alignments is because i was a cop, and got the idea that this might be like the setup at epicmafia - but since it was obvious my plan wasn't going to go through I went with someone random.

[icemanE]

I think more or less what he may be asking is why are you so certain i am a cop AND you are real. because if you are insane, then i am scum...

Hmm, yeah. I guess there's that chance. I can be certain I'm real, but I can't be certain you are. And I guess I could be insane, but I'm betting that if there are three cops (two verified (AKA dead) and myself) there are probably four - and that's based almost entirely on that setup I keep referring to. But that's what makes sense to me.

[icemanE]

Okay, well my next question, if you are a cop then you obviously know that either me or RBT is scum, so why are you not voting either of us?

I thought I was voting RBT - I don't remember unvoting but I guess at some point I did.

vote: RBT

Thank you for pointing that out.

[icemanE]

Why are people unvoting Rice?

[icemanE]

OK so am I not a regular cop. WTF AM I?

*sigh*

I got an innocent on bionic last night.

My only stab at the answer to this is that there's a framer who framed rice the night I investigated him, thereby switching my results to guilty even though he was the godfather. If that's the case, I may or may not be naive, I realized, meaning I get an innocent on anyone I investigate - which would have been negated if rice were framed. So at this point, I am definitely either naive or sane - but that's not a huge help right now.

[icemanE]

Naive would always get an innocent even if somebody was framed.

Are you sure? Should we check with the mod on that?

[icemanE]

Why were those choices better than bio?

[icemanE]

Yeah, confirming a townie was the best move last night IMO. But that's just what happened, not what I intended. I tried to pick someone fat wouldn't, so I picked someone under the radar. If fat somehow survived into today, we'd have two different reports. But I didn't want to risk wasting my investigation on fat because I figured chances were good one of us would die.

Is anyone opposed to a massclaim today?

[icemanE]

WTF? And how did you think that your results would matter?

Because it was a toss up between either one of myself and fat dying, or neither of us dying. I thought the probabilities were about equal because people were doubting our claims yesterday and saying we might be scum, so I thought they might try a gambit. I wanted to ensure that I didn't target the same person as fat so we would have two different reports. I already explained that.

I think a massclaim today might be helpful going into tomorrow - in the off chance that there's an unclaimed doc who can protect me tonight, I will have a smaller pool from which to pick who I should investigate.

[icemanE]

Well I'm glad you did all that thinking for me, I don't believe I ever would have had the time to work that all out.

Anyways, this:

2) If you believe Xtoxm was framed night 1: Mafia framed AFC night 2. Ice is insane cop. BC2 is scum.

...seems to be the most plausible conclusion, because I don't know why the mod wouldn't factor in sanities - otherwise, why would sanities be assigned?

[icemanE]

KoC's latest post is a REALLY, even admittedly lazy defense. I don't like that at all.

I think we have to disregard my report now, which is a bummer, if there's a framer, and it seems there is.

To answer someone's question about where I "got the idea" that there was a framer in the game, the epicmafia setups with 4 cops almost always have an alignment altering or concealing role. Framer is the only one that makes any sense for what has happened this game.

[icemanE]

unvote - vote: KoC

[icemanE]

Alright!

Thanks bio - honestly I'm shocked I wasn't caught in my bogus cop claim after the whole mixed results thing - I'm also shocked that there were actually 3 cops in the game - I figured fat might be a mafia traitor or an SK or something. Man, that was fun - good game everyone.

I think fark did a really nice job distancing himself from me - in fact I was afraid he was going to get me lynched at some points.

[icemanE]

http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/YMwyKAgNt2b