Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[BlackVoid]

Hi! I'll read through and get caught up soon. Hopefully tonight.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so finished the first seven pages. I'm free all day today so should be catching up soon.

I've got three fairly solid townreads: Outoforder, Kidamn, and Rels. Not sure how the Kidamn wagon sprung up but from what I read I don't support it so please don't lynch until I catch up and share thoughts.

I've ambivalent on Hapahauli so need to catch up to figure out if I want to vote him.

[BlackVoid]

@Hap, is there a reason your play here is different from the play I've seen from you in the Mini we played together? There and in Dierfire's Mini Normal, you replaced in, made a case on a single player and pushed the lynch through. Here, you seem to have a wider focus on a lot of different players. I think part of that could be playing from the beginning and being under pressure but it would help if you could link to a towngame where you played similarly here or at TL.

Also, if you keep track of stats, how often do you survive as scum and have you ever been lynched D1 as scum?

[BlackVoid]

Thanks! Also, what alignment do you prefer?

[BlackVoid]

@Cass - I've posted reads that jumped out to me as I read but full readslist will happen after I finish reading the entire thread and ISO everyone.

@Creature - what happened to your read on Fitz? Right now, the people I'm most concerned about are Fitz, Hap, and Hawk (I'm just at the point where I saw Hawk's replace in post and scumread on Doomfeathers at the end of page fourteen).

Current townreads are OutofOrder, KidAmn, doomfeathers and Creature. Rels faded out a bit so not as strong there.

[BlackVoid]

Looking through Hawk's games, I noticed that in Open 669, he voted Doom for quickly changing his vote and they were both town there. So, he should know that Doom does this as town and it's at worst null. I don't like that he uses the same reason to vote Doom yet again.

[BlackVoid]

I didn't say that you should read Doom's vote-hopping as town. But if he did it before as town, that means it's not a scumtell and you should be using other tools to read him. But you used that as a reason to scumread him.

[BlackVoid]

It's hard to believe that you used a scumtell on someone, saw that it was wrong and then used the same tell on the same person again. I didn't imply that you should be reading him as town now because he did it before as town (that's what your response to me sounded like). I'm saying it's null but you voting him in your replace in post means you thought it was actively scummy.

[BlackVoid]

But Frederick made a blunder; got pressured by OOO; and replaced out. He didn't replace out of nowhere; he replaced specifically after being pressured. More likely coming from scum than town.

Is this actually a thing that happens in TeamLiquid? I'd like Outoforder and Hap to answer as well. This seems like a massive stretch.

[BlackVoid]

I've read the first twenty pages and I need a break. This game is dense.

@Cass - who are you scumreading right now? I don't share your townread on Hap. I think the KidAmn case ignored a lot of what made him town and pushed on "contradictions" that I don't feel were very alignment-indicative and in fact that's probably where my vote is going to go once I'm caught up.

[BlackVoid]

Fitz is probably town for 523 and the way Aubrey approached his Fitz read gives me townvibes as well. Current scumpool is Hap + 2 out of (Cass, Rels, Kop, and Hawk) although I haven't read a single Cass post before my replace in so that's more of a POE pool.

[BlackVoid]

@Creature - how is outoforder in your scumpool?

[BlackVoid]

Of course there are going to be town in a six player scumpool. My question to Creature is why outoforder wasn't a townread for him because he's my strongest townread.

[BlackVoid]

I think Rels is the townread you may be more likely to be wrong on. There were a few of his early posts that gave my townvibes but I think he could be trying too hard to make his reads mesh with outoforder's. For instance he pushes Hap after Outoforder pushes him and then once Hap posts a not-so-good case, the suspicion is suddenly withdrawn with a "welcome to the game Hap" and then Hap is removed from his lynch candidates entirely to be replaced with people that Hap was scumreading. He was also on the KidAmn wagon. I haven't got to where he voted yet but I'm pretty skeptical of everyone on that wagon.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I'm going to vote him once I catch up and post a longer list of reads with reasons. Really need to figure out what I think of Cass before we lynch. Happy with a scumpool of five so far.

[BlackVoid]

Town

Outoforder

- Doubt I even need to explain this. I don't think any player is capable of replicating the content he put forth in the first twenty odd pages when he was active. Easily my strongest read.

KidAmn

- Three main reasons: Firstly, I liked his aggressive attack on outoforder at the beginning of the game. More than that, he was unfazed by outoforder townreading him back while he attracted pressure from others like Hapahauli. His push wasn't well-received but he kept going and I think scum in this case would be more likely to hesitate and reconsider rather than brazenly push their only advocate. I don't think scum-Kid would be so offended at outoforder calling him bad town especially since he seems to be pretty new but I could see town thinking that they're being discredited and doubling down. Secondly, while he does take issue with Creature's playstyle, he also mentions that Creature's scumread on Allomancer was lazy/opportunistic which is more than a playstyle thing. I think just the fact that he a)looked over Creature's previous games and b)undercut his own argument are both decent towntells. Hapahauli missing all of this is where the bulk of my suspicion stems from. Thirdly, while I don't agree with the points KidAmn raised against Hap, I think his reaction was genuine. He misunderstood Hap's points but the way he responded makes me think he genuinely believed that Hap was misrepping him.

HavingFitz

- His stance of KidAmn as town and voting Hap is more likely to come from town which admittedly is somewhat biased by my own reads. But I think that KidAmn wagon would be a tough one for scum to pass up on. Fitz saying that Rels and Outoforder suspecting Hap is a reason to look in his direction is something I find scum tend to hesitate on because they'd look bad for sheeping. His probing on whether Rels and OutofOrder ever mislynched Hap and other questions meant to understand their group dynamics were queries I thought were very good and I had many similar ones as I was reading through the thread.

Creature

- Probably the hardest read to explain and there's a significant meta-component to it. I'm not as confident in Creature-town as in our previous game together. But I also disagree with the argument that he's bussing Hap. He's been pretty set on making sure the Hap wagon happens even as alternatives spring up so a Hap scumflip makes him extremely likely town. I'll have to re-evaluate if I'm wrong on Hap but even then, I lean town based on how involved he's been in the game. His poe mostly makes sense although there are some outliers like Hawk that I don't understand and who I think should have been a townread after those two walls.

Hawk

- Most of my townread on Hawk comes from the two introspective walls. I specifically liked the part where he pointed out the interactions between Rels and Hap in 786 which I also thought were odd when I first read them, and the part where he asked Rels about Hap in a previous post. 659 though is where I started firmly townreading Hawk. I think it would be easy for scum to have "reads" but much harder to convincingly fake not having any concrete reads and nothing about it looks fake or contrived.

Aubrey

- Things I liked were his critique of Hap's case on KidAmn, his consistently looking through the lens of what he would do as scum which scum are less comfortable with, and the way he backed off of Fitz while still being unsure. I thought his response to Kop's "buddying" comment was weak as I don't see why he wouldn't buddy now just because he didn't do so as scum in the past but I think the high level of engagement points to town here.

Doomfeathers

- I think the activity is not alignment-indicative for him but I liked 159 which shows he's doing his research and 211 is very believable since I did the same thing and came to the same conclusion that Fitz is tough to read from meta. That this came right after he started townreading Fitz and then doubting himself is even more town as it shows he's organically looking for more information to develop his read.

Null/Uncertain about

Rels

- I started off townreading Rels mostly for 91 where he asks for Doomfeather's games. I had the exact same inclination to look through a couple of his scumgames to see what he's capable of. I'm not sure I agree with his conclusion since despite being lynched D1, doom was fairly active and pushing players even as scum. I like most of his reads in 398 and his push on Hap. On reading more closely, I don't think his backing off of Hap was scummy but I'm not a fan of his vote on KidAmn. What I disliked the most about this slot I mentioned in 825 and would like answered. But overall, I think Rels is more likely town than not.

Cassielle

- Probably the most conflicted here. Her thought process is extremely difficult to follow. I don't understand the rationale behind assuming that scum are bussing Hap. As I see it, there have always been counterwagons, first on Kop, then on KidAmn. If she was so sure about Hap being scum, I have a tough time reconciling her L-2 vote on KidAmn who was Hap's biggest push. The insistence that Hap was scum but that we lynch Creature first was also really odd. But I do think her townreads on Creature and Hawk evolved organically and the Hawk read at least was based on the same post that I thought was town. I think the sheer activity and content generated by asking people to re-evaluate their town reads was good too.

Kop

- Quick look at his meta shows that this near complete lack of participation is normal for him as either alignment. I haven't seen anything that makes me solidly townread him @Kop: I have a few question I'd like answered. Can you explain your Rels vote and your comment that scum are lurking in "Rels, Hapa and Doom." If you think that's the case, why vote Rels who has no votes on him over Hap who's a more viable suspect?

Scum

Hapahauli

- My first scum ping came when he attacked KidAmn's first post, then backed off in 97. I agree with outoforder that there was nothing KidAmn said in that post that should have made Hap back off. What I think happened is that Hap thought he could make a push on KidAmn which was then immediately received very negatively by both Outoforder and Doomfeathers who townread KidAmn. It seemed like Hap wanted an excuse to back off and push elsewhere so he quoted a completely mundane post, said it made sense and unvoted. Secondly, his case on KidAmn is pretty bad. One of his arguments is basically that KidAmn is scum because he lurked while calling out lurkers. Except scum would be a heck of a lot more cautious to not do that because that would get a "so are you" response from town. But if he truly thought Creature and FEC were lurking in a scummy way, he can't just let them slip away. That reminds me of a townie (Jaack) in Mini 1843 who flew under the radar while calling out another player (Cloudkicker) for doing the same thing who incidentally winded up being scum. I went over his other argument in the KidAmn section but that's pretty bad as well and if anything points more towards KidAmn being town. Hap then scumreads HavingFitz because HavingFitz wrote a long post while criticizing outoforder for writing long posts. You've gotta kidding me. None of Hap's reads have resonated with me and they all look like cobbling together "contradictions" and "inconsistencies" without looking deeper into them.

VOTE: hapahauli

[BlackVoid]

It's odd to me that nearly everyone who posted since my Hap case agreed but found reasons to vote elsewhere. There were so many people that looked town but Hap's reads were the least believable - his read on KidAmn and Fitz - and ultimately that's what I'm going with.

I do understand Kop's argument that Rels might have pressured a town-Hap and backed off for towncred which actually makes me feel better about Kop.

I'm going to re-ISO Rels when I get back this evening to see what I think. Not interested in lynching outoforder. That Fitz vote was weird but it does make sense with his previous suspicion and his posting before his V/LA was super town. Just want him to get back in the game and post thoughts.

[BlackVoid]

Rels could be scum but I have a hard time seeing a Hap-town, Rels-scum scenario. In that scenario, it's overwhelmingly likely that a town-Hap would have caught onto a scum-Rels especially when the latter was pushing him so hard and they know each other well. But Hap never suspects Rels and his top four suspects are KidAmn, Fitz, Kop, and Cass. I think Hap lynch gives us better odds at hitting scum.

[BlackVoid]

"Hap lynch hits scum 100% of the time" and you are voting Rels?

Lynching

any

scum gives information. I'm not going to lynch someone

less

likely to be scum because

if

they're scum it gives information. If Rels flips town, we've just wasted a mislynch. If Hap flips town, well according to you there's no possibility of that happening so I don't understand your reluctance to vote there at all. What stops us from lynching Rels later on if we think he's the most likely scum at that point?

[BlackVoid]

I'm still not crazy about us going from "Hapa is the lynch but let's look at other stuff first" to "Rels is the lynch and don't any of you dare stall"

Don't give in to stuff if you don't even understand where Cass is coming from. I haven't ruled out a Cass/Hap scumteam yet.

[BlackVoid]

Cass has since the point of replacing in giving lip service to a Hap lynch while using any and every opportunity to lynch someone else. At first, it was Creature. Then it was KidAmn. Now it's Rels.

[BlackVoid]

All the while, she's been calling Hap 100% scum. How does anyone not see the ridiculousness of her position?

Yeah, she's active and she's contributing. But her reads make literally no sense. I'm going to read through her past games this evening but I doubt I would find a game where she calls someone 100% scum and then tries to browbeat people into voting somebody else.

[BlackVoid]

None of what you said makes any sense. If Hap is 100% scum, why are you voting elsewhere? The "lip service" that I'm referring to is that you're too confident Hap is scum but your votes don't show that. If any wagon picks up steam, you are there on it.

KidAmn, Fitz, and Outoforder, let's get back on the wagon and lynch Hap.

[BlackVoid]

@Hawk - how did you go from "Hap looks the worst of the three TL players and Rels is my backup," and saying that you are "okay with a Hap lynch, look at Rels if he's scum" to voting Rels? Then you say you are concerned that Kop is pushing Rels and that you could see Hap/Kop or Hap/Rels. Based on all of this, you should be voting Hap so I have no idea how you winded up with a Rels vote.

[BlackVoid]

@Hawk - I'm not clear about your thought process here. Walk me through it once again: you initially dismissed Rels and Outoforder's cases on Hap as being meta-driven. What does that mean exactly? Did you think they were all town, all scum, or any one or two of them were scum? How does my making a concise case against Hap make you think the TL members are either mislynching Hap or bussing? Hap is scummy by himself. My Hap case has nothing to do with Outoforder or Rels bussing him. In other words, why does me making a Hap case plant the idea in your head that the TL crowd could be mislynching Hap?

Hap's wagon has plenty of resistance. No one is outright townreading Hap but always finding reasons to vote elsewhere. First, the Kop wagon sprung up as a counterwagon. Then it was KidAmn, and now it's Rels. How do you get "zero resistance" when it's so hard to corral votes on him?

"If Hap flips town, where are we?" is something you could say to any player. What will them flipping town tell you? If you are "fairly certain Hap is scum," then you should be voting him.

[BlackVoid]

You still haven't answered my question. What does "I don't think meta is AI" mean? That's extremely vague. Did you think Rels was town who suspected Hap, scum setting up to mislynch Hap, or scum bussing? I don't understand how you go from:

Rels and Outoforder are pushing Hap = don't think meta is alignment-indicative. Ignore.
I post a case on Hap = This is a more genuinely thought out case, Hap is almost certainly scum, vote Rels for backing off of him.

One thing I missed in your previous post. You said "

We probably lynch Hapa today. But we have time. We still have what 2 days to talk?

." Are you intending to vote Rels just to get him to respond and then move your vote back to Hap?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, thanks for clarifying. That makes a ton more sense after I re-read your ISO again to see how you arrived at that. The notion of "I want to lynch X today but first I'm going to vote Y to keep them accountable" is a really odd way of scumhunting that I don't think I've encountered before but at least it's consistent with your previous thoughts. Do go ahead and say what you intended to say though. It should help me solidify my read on you.

[BlackVoid]

I'm ready to lynch Hap. We just need to get the votes. Contrary to Hawk, I'd much rather flip him and then make associatives from that rather than go for the associatives first.

[BlackVoid]

@Aubrey, when you do get caught up, I'd like to hear your actual stances on potential wagons. While I obviously agree with the point you raised above, it's concerning that you haven't used that to talk about anyone's alignment and only argued it in a generic sense. Your last few posts since the point I replaced in haven't impressed me either. It doesn't seem like you are invested in making sure a lynch you want happens today and are just focusing on tangential stuff like Creature's comment on the daytalk. Stuff I expected to see but missed entirely is some sort of reaction to my replacing in and pushing for a Hap lynch, and the reactions of several other players by scumreading him and voting Rels, and actual stances on whether you think either Hap or Rels are scum and who you want to lynch today.

[BlackVoid]

@Hawk - thanks for that explanation. How much are you considering the fact that Rels' push on Hap was one-sided and Hap never pushes back on Rels at any point into your reads? Personally, part of the reason I prefer Hap was that in a Hap-town, Rels-scum scenario, Rels would have been successfully fooling Hap all along even while launching a massive push on him. Given that Rels seems to look up to Hap (calls him a town god in 401), this seemed rather unlikely to me. I'd like to hear what you think the odds of those are compared with a scum-Hap convincing Rels to back off.

[BlackVoid]

@Hawk - I do see the possibility of a scum-Rels backing off of a town-Hap for the "I told you so" cred. My point is that it's rather unlikely for a town-Hap to be completely oblivious to Rels' posting. Hap not noticing or commenting on what Rels' push on him says about Rels' alignment, focusing only on trying to convince Rels' of his being town is concerning. He also argued to Fitz about how Rels' (and outoforder) backing off of him means the case on him is no longer valid but he never actually spends a lot of time trying to sort through Rels' alignment.

@Aubrey - My main reason for voting Hap is what I laid out in my readslist and isn't dependent on any other reads. I have been considering various possibilities though from my null/scum pool to see what interactions make sense as scum-town or scum-scum. Can you go over your reads a bit more on the rest of the playerlist? While I agree with your Hap read, I'd like to see your own reasons for voting him.

[BlackVoid]

Normally I am a bit more vocal and forceful in my reads, even with the headspace that I go about day 1. However to be frank, I'm kinda detached from this game a bit. More than normal.

Why are you detached from this game?

[BlackVoid]

Also, was the entirety of 924 directed at me or just the first part? Because I haven't suggested lynching Rels based on associatives nor am I 100% sure about my Hap scumread. Cass was the one who said both of those things.

I'd like a bit more elaboration on where you stand with regard to Rels and Hap. You are focusing on whether other people's reasons to lynch them are justified but I'm more interested in what you think of their posting by itself.

[BlackVoid]

Which paragraph are you talking about Aubrey where you explain your Hap scumread. Mind quoting it for me?

[BlackVoid]

No, it doesn't? I was asking for your reasons for voting Hap and you say that you think he's a null/scum-lean. Can you elaborate on why that is? Also, the not wanting to post a reads-list doesn't make any sense considering that you are saying you'd be okay lynching any of your null/scum reads but not townreads. Except no one has idea what those reads are. The best I can do is take guesses from your interactions with people but that's a lot more vague and prone to error than having you commit to townreads, nullreads, and scumreads.

[BlackVoid]

Okay but could you go ahead and list out your reads? Given that you are arguing you'd lynch any of your null/scum reads, you can see how it creates a problem reading you if I don't know what those reads are, and you could potentially decide to hop onto whatever wagon crops up with the reasoning that "this player is my null/scum reads."

I don't need an in-depth list. I'll settle for a naked reads list and I'll ask for comments on reads that interest me.

[BlackVoid]

Looked over three Hap towngames to see if I could be wrong here and nothing has given me pause. Basically, I just read through his ISO to see where he makes a case against someone and the reasons he uses:

1. Devil's Riddle Mafia - This one is on TeamLiquid. He does indeed spend the first part of D1 poking around so that's not scummy. His first case is on Geript here which basically amounted to Geript being disjointed from the flow of the game while not adding anything to the discussion which I thought was a fairly good reason to suspect him.

2. Aperture Mafia - Also on TeamLiquid, he scumreads Trefle for posting a case on someone Trefle thought was a third party. A bit nitpicky but he clearly delineates what the scum motive is for hunting for third parties.

3. Town of Whispers - This is on mafiascum. I suggest people read it as it's only an eight-post ISO. He scumreads SlySly for unnatural confidence in his three scumreads, lack of considering the Misere wagon, and lack of townie paranoia and taking in new information. Hap was wrong and SlySly was town but it still showed a lot of depth and this happened before any scumflips.

So, that's the baseline I'm working with regarding the quality of Hap's pushes and cases. Going to re-read Hap's ISO in-depth again to see how they stack up.

[BlackVoid]

No. I told you how you can get reads from me. I'm not giving you a reads list.

--

I've also shown doubt on the Hapa read, and in my own way I'm challenging it in the above post. Why are you not bothering to remedy those shaking feelings away?

I'm not going to point at each player and ask you for your read on them. If your end of day posting basically amounts to having a few townreads and being willing to lynch anyone in your null/scum pile, you should have a very good idea of who those people are and there is no reason to not share them especially given there is no chance of there being any PRs in this setup or ulterior town reasons to withhold reads.

I'm not sure if you're asking about your shaking feelings or mine. I'm reading through Hap's games to see if I still feel the same way about lynching him.

[BlackVoid]

@Aubrey:

Spoiler: In your previous towngame, you've been willing to give lists of people you'd lynch D1

So far I'd be willing to lynch these players.

LQ, Lethargy, Dave, Toto, Gamma, and Keyen.

Not in any particular order. Just people I wouldn't be completely opposed to lynching so far. To be blunt, I'd lynch anybody if it meant avoiding a no lynch.

Spoiler: In another town game, you tell someone how refusing to give reads doesn't make a lot of sense

Subject: Open 654 | Surrealism - Game over

Zach, why are you refusing to give your reads out of curiosity? I have a townie read from you based on your defense of gamma. I doubt the two of you are scum aligned. If you two were scum, I wouldn't understand Gamma's defense of Skold earlier. From that point of view I would assume your intentions Regarding that defense was town driven vs. scum driven. long story short, I think you have a strong town possibility so I'm interested in your reads. Refusing to give reads doesn't make a lot of sense.

Here, you ask another player for reads just as I asked you now (general reads, not reads on any specific player) so it follows that you think it's a reasonable request:
Subject: Open 654 | Surrealism - Game over

So how are your reads looking Gamma? I haven't really gotten a feel for who your for or against yet. Your Skold defense and short out burst regarding how the Blackstar debate shoulda ended pages ago are your two most interesting posts regarding your feelings about others. Unless I missed one of course.

I'm on my phone and don't care to go searching endlessly through pages to double check.

Would someone also define townblock please? I've seen the term thrown around a few times and I can only guess at what it means to do so.

Spoiler: Here's another reads-list from town-Aubrey

Subject: Open 658 Making Friends and Enemies | Game Over

My current player read list I have.

1) Transcend: Scum Lean?
2) Creature: Null Town Lean?
3) Burgerking: Null scum lean
4)

Aristophanes

: Null
5) BK201: Null scum lean
6) sad1492: Null town lean, but willing to lynch
7)

MariaR

Gamma: town lean
8) Aubrey
9)

MiniDeathStar

mhsmith: Null Null Town Lean
10) oddmusic: town lean
11) Secret Agent Jin: Null scum lean
12) doomfeathers: Null scum lean
13) tojam2: Null but willing to lynch (The smallest of small town leans. Smaller than the world's tiniest violin.)

If Null is before town or scum lean, then it just means its a weaker read that a flat out town/scum lean.

? means I'm a bit perplexed as to why I feel the way I do, but I do.

This list literally changes daily. Usually multiple times at that.

So, this refusal doesn't make any sense to me.

[BlackVoid]

Straight up. I don't feel like doing it, and would rather engage with you rather than doing a shitty reads list. You're trying to make it sound like I'm refusing to give reads at all, and that is not the case. I'm refusing to give you a reads list that wouldn't amount to jack shit, but would rather have a conversation with you about individual players that you are interested in my thoughts on.

You wanna know X, I'll give you X if you just do Y.

I want to know where you stand on all the players so that I can engage you on the ones I find to be of interest.

[BlackVoid]

@Aubrey, can I have your thoughts on Kop, outoforder, Rels, Hawk, me, KidAmn, havingfitz, doomfeathers, cassielle, and Creature please?

[BlackVoid]

Your read on Cass interests me the most. What "impenetrable suit of armor" are you talking about and why do you "want to townread" her? Her stance on Hap being 100% scum and voting Rels is really bad as you agreed and her latest post reads extremely fake. That's one slot I'd flashlynch today if it became viable.

[BlackVoid]

@Hap, in case you show up tomorrow, please post your reads on Rels, Outoforder, Cass, and Aubrey.

@Cass, my point is that you saying Hap is 100% town and voting elsewhere makes zero sense to me no matter how you dress it up.

[BlackVoid]

Hap disappearing as soon as people start looking elsewhere is sketch as fuck, as is Rels and BV suddenly going ham on counterwagons

Vote Hapahauli

because we really need to get SOMETHING out of this day and Hapascum swinging is best for business

I'm not sure what game you are reading where Rels has been posting and going "ham" on counterwagons. And I've trying to derail the Rels counterwagon and making sure that the Hap one gets through. Hap also hasn't posted at all on site since a couple of days ago so I doubt his not posting is indicative of alignment.

[BlackVoid]

@Outoforder, while you catch up, weigh in on Rels for me as well.

[BlackVoid]

I don't think writing a wall of text while complaining about one is scummy at all. Hap made the same argument and I literally could not believe someone would think that was scummy and that factored into my scumread on Hap. Seems more like it's a TeamLiquid thing though. I don't recall where Fitz tried to "fend off suspicion" with something you did but I think you are conf-biasing here. In general, I find his posts and reads to be town which I elaborated on in my big readslist.

On that note, I'd like to hear your thoughts on my 825.

Also FYI, we don't have three days to deadline, we have a day and sixteen hours.

[BlackVoid]

I'll wait till catch up is complete to give my reads and serious vote.

Here's what he said. I don't see the issue in catching up halfway through and holding off on giving reads until he's completely caught up.

[BlackVoid]

He wrote like 1000 word that said nothing. AFTER I HAVE BEEN READ TOWN FOR A WOT (that actually had a reason to be written).

I've played with Fitz before. Can confirm that wall-of-text is his normal style of play. I very much doubt he saw you getting townread for your wall and decided to go "hey, let me write a wall so I too can be townread."

You seem to be pretty big on looking over people's past games. Haven't you read any of Fitz's?

[BlackVoid]

@Outoforder, I've rarely seen instances of scum replacing out under pressure. Seems unethical to replace out when caught. So, using that as an argument for why someone is scum feels like a stretch. But I suppose I can understand that if it happens frequently on TL. And no, it wasn't his original case, I guess I could see him being conf-biased and thinking Frederick replaced out under pressure.

My tinfoil theory at the time was that both Rels and Cass were partnered and Rels was so sure because he knew the Frederick slot was actually scum. But their interactions since Cass replaced in don't really fit partner interactions so I'm not concerned.

Regarding Fitz, writing walls of text is how he always plays the game. You can't expect him to be concise when that's not his style.

[BlackVoid]

@Cass, I don't see how the thought process of "vote Rels, if we hit resistance, switch back to Hap" makes any sense whatsoever. Meaning if there is no resistance, then the Rels wagon goes through and you'll have just called Hap 100% scum and lynched someone else.

What I call browbeating is this quote:

stalling tactics to be aware of:
if players say they refuse to vote rels this dayphase, theyre stalling
if players say that someone outside of rels/hapa has a better chance of hitting scum, theyre stalling
if players push hapa while saying they scumread rels, theyre stalling
if players push rels but don't vote, theyre stalling

You are basically saying if people do anything but vote Rels, they are stalling. I assume you are saying stalling is scummy because I don't see why else you'd mention it in that context.

So, basically "vote Rels or you are scum." That's browbeating trying to get a Rels wagon going through DESPITE the fact that you've called Hap 100% scum. Why shouldn't townies be voting this 100% scum as opposed to Rels?

[BlackVoid]

I assume you mean me since Hawk hasn't posted for a bit. I'm townreading both you and Fitz. If you think I'm wrong, I'm wiling to listen to what you have to say about Fitz's content. But telling me he's scum because he didn't need to write a wall, or that he complained about walls while writing one isn't convincing me. I've played with him before and know that that's his style. Talk to me about the actual content Fitz has posted in his walls that you have issue with. I do see the point you made about him not explaining the "contradiction" and scumreading you but I think pushing back on people that accuse him is normal for Fitz regardless of alignment as well. I replaced MooginSoosy.

[BlackVoid]

In any game of Fitz's that I looked at, his catch up style has always been to make walls responding to posts. Responding to things that have been said in thread isn't nonsense. He responded to half of it, said he'll do the rest later and post his reads when caught up.

[BlackVoid]

I have. I'm sure there are differences but I haven't been able to find a smoking gun that I can use. I'm reading him mostly based on his content in this game.

[BlackVoid]

I'm saying your point about Fitz walling is a null tell for him. Read him based on the substance in his walls. See 859.

[BlackVoid]

Your point is that he is scum because he walled while complaining about walling. That's a bad argument. You then said he's scum because he wrote a wall and said he'd give his reads after catching up fully which you think is scummy because you don't see the point of the wall. I pointed out that this is a null-tell for him since catchup walls is how he plays the game. I don't find it at all odd for him to catch up partway through and say he'll give his reads when caught up fully. You then said he's omgus'ing you which again is something I've seen him do as both alignments. I feel like I'm beating my head on a wall here. Fitz isn't getting lynched today. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the rest of the playerlist when you are caught up.

[BlackVoid]

We're at L-2 with Creature, me, Aubrey, Cass, and KidAmn. Do want to see Hap post last thoughts and reads in case he's town. Also, want to Rels' and Outoforder catch up reads. I'll post final thoughts and reads this evening.

@Mod

- please prod Hap and Rels.

[BlackVoid]

No worries. It can be frustrating when people talk past each other which is what this conversation felt like. Just catch up and lay out your thoughts in detail. I think that'll help me a lot more in seeing where you are coming from.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, can you go over your first impression from your catchup and what reads you have outside of Hap?

[BlackVoid]

Hawk's reflections seem town to me. What do you think of 659? Also, read on Aubrey would be nice. I'm concerned that his laid back attitude towards the lynch might be scum. Not in a "lost" way as you and outoforder. It's more like he doesn't really care what happens at a time when most town are trying to secure a lynch we can live with.

[BlackVoid]

Can you elaborate a bit more on your Cass townread? I could see some of her posts being town but that pretty much evaporated based on her play around the Hap wagon. It was really odd that she comes into the game, tunnels Hap, jumps onto the budding KidAmn wagon, jumps onto your wagon, etc. It feels like opportunistic scum creating a smoke-screen more than town trying to solve the game.

[BlackVoid]

I'm really interested in how you think she arrived at the logic in 891. That's the one that made me think "holy crap, this is scum."

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, the part I don't get is why if she thinks Hap is 100% scum (which by the way is itself weird to have that much confidence), she'd even consider voting anyone other than Hap.

[BlackVoid]

Well, currently my reads are at Hap + Cass + someone else, possibly Aubrey as the scumteam. Cassielle replacing in with an odd confidence in a Hap scumflip but wanting to lynch Creature first actually fits in really well as partners. Then Hap and Cass have a scum theater showdown (by the way, I've read on a TeamLiquid forum that Hap likes bussing). Then you tell Hap to back off and he "re-evaluates" Cass. Cass then continues with the confident Hap push but suddenly votes KidAmn as the wagon is building. If she was so confident in Hap-scum, wouldn't she be wary of voting Hap's biggest push? KidAmn and Hap were pretty opposed to each other. Then she switches back to Hap. Then as a Rels wagon builds up, she votes you, calls Hap 100% scum and says that if anyone refuses to vote you, they are stalling. So, yeah my theory is that they are partners and tried to do a bus showdown but that Cass is terrible at making it convincing.

[BlackVoid]

....The thought that I don't care and being laid back in comparison to a number of others is kinda laughable.

Well, I think you'd be more involved as town regardless of how other people have been treating the lynch. That's not an excuse. When I asked why, you even said that you normally are more involved but just THIS game, you are not. That looks like pre-empting me going over your meta and showing that you are very involved at deadline time as town. You haven't given any solid reason why this game is special in the sense of you caring less about the outcome.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, Cass has no completed scumgames. She does have a few completed towngames though and I'll pursue them this night phase to see what I think.

[BlackVoid]

It's also the fact that you (Aubrey) are being very generic about your comments. For instance, you made a paragraph saying that it's silly for people to say Hap is 100% scum and vote Rels. But you never directly call out those people (Cass and Hawk) and grill them on their positions. It's just a vague laid-back agreement with me and then neither your read on Cass nor Hawk has any indication at all of their treatment of the Hap wagon.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, I do see what you are saying with regards to Hawk but I think the reasons I have to townread him outweigh. Not willing to vote him over Hap. Only other lynch I'd consider from your list is Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

Hap was online this morning but never checked in. I have some paranoia about being wrong here but on balance, that's the best achievable lynch that's likely to flip scum. Thinking Aubrey is scum regardless of flip. Cass is scum with a Hap scumflip.

[BlackVoid]

Interfering with people's sleep schedules is my favorite part of mafia!

Just click on a player's profile. At the bottom right, you'll see "search user's posts" and "view their topics." The first one gives you a list of the most recent posts a player made regardless of what thread it was in. The second gives you a list of threads that the player has posted in.

[BlackVoid]

Well, he was prodded in this game at 9AM PST. At 9:45 or so, he posted in a different game but not here. If you look at his "search user posts." So, obviously he was online if he made any post at all.

[BlackVoid]

@Creature, since you are online right now, mind giving me your thoughts about Aubrey?

[BlackVoid]

What do you think of the points I made regarding how he was lying back and not contributing to the lynch discussion as well as being really generic in his suspicions? Right now, if there's one player I'm most certain of being scum, it's him.

[BlackVoid]

You said you were concerned that people are voting Rels based on associatives but leaving Hap open to a lynch. If it's just silliness and not alignment-indicative, why would you be concerned?

It's not that you are not "involved." It's that the posts you make are tangential to the most important thing in the thread. When the most pressing matter of the day is whether we should lynch Hap or Rels, you commented on Creature's daytalk post. It's like you are in thread but you don't really care about advancing the say. It's also concerning that I had to spend so much effort to get you to commit to reads.

[BlackVoid]

You were acting as if you were same wavelength as me regarding the way Cass and Hawk voted Rels based on associatives and implicitly said that my points made sense. Except our reactions are not similar at all. When I saw Cass and Hawk post what they did, I aggressively pushed Cass and grilled Hawk until I got him to elaborate on his thought process step by step. It's just the sort of pro-activeness that you haven't displayed. You are agreeing with me that their stances are ridiculous but you don't really care why they have their stances nor do you use that to get reads on them or even directly question them. You show up later and state your agreement with me. Also, don't give me a response that you are not me and that everyone is different because my argument is more that your reaction isn't a town reaction at all.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz, if you are here, can we discuss Aubrey?

[BlackVoid]

I find it hard to buy that if you were on the exact same page as me, that you would have the read on Cass that you did. My primary concern was how Cass said Hap was 100% scum and then voted Rels. Immediate reaction was that she was distancing from Hap. So, if you thought she was town, I'd expect you to introduce your own stance into it and commit to positions. But all did was a vague "why are people giving BV shit for this stance, I agree with it too." I had to press you several times to get your reads out and when you finally did, Cass was among the people you weren't willing to lynch.

[BlackVoid]

I'm trying to keep an open mind and I've been doing that no matter who I push. But none of your responses are adding up for me. I'll re-read your ISO to see if there's something I'm missing though.

[BlackVoid]

Read through the game yet again and I'm no longer confident that Hap is mafia. I've quickly skimmed through four of his scumgames and while he does have an abrasive edge to his posting, the way he was frustrated at being suspected for bad reasons rang extremely genuine to me. Also, I've been a conf-baised on Hap but it's just starting to sink in that a lot of the suspicion of Hap makes no sense and it's really odd that every single player in the game suspects him. Re-reading Hap's case on KidAmn, I think Hap's point that KidAmn is calling Creature's meta non-alignment-indicative but voting him anyways is the kind of argument I can see Hap making which was clearer on a review. Hap's point about Fitz actually could just be something TL players find reasonable since outoforder kept going on about it this morning and I'm pretty sure he's town. That leaves Hap's case against Casielle and I thought it was bussing at that point but it's completely reasonable for him to think that Cassielle's thought process is bullshit so I get that. Bottomline, I think Hap is more likely town than not and I'd really prefer we don't lynch him today.

Moving on, I think Hap was wrong about all of KidAmn, Cassielle, and Fitz. While I understand the inconsistency that Hap pointed out w.r.t KidAmn, I think he was missing the fact that KidAmn even deciding to go through Creature's meta to undercut his own argument was townish on his part. There's also the fact that KidAmn's interpretation of this game is a tiny bit off from reality which shows when he was accusing me and Rels of going "ham" on counterwagons when I didn't do anything of that sort and Rels hadn't even posted. I buy KidAmn's ATE because he's a newbie and he doesn't seem capable of high-level deception.

Cassielle has moved onto being a townread mostly from how Aubrey is interacting with her. I can't see a scum player calling their partner "the mighty Cass" or suggesting that me going after Cass is a towntell because he's almost assuming that she's town in the process. Looking back, there were several points where Cass reacted in a way that mirrored my thoughts like calling Hawk town for his introspective posts and saying that KidAmn's ATE looks town. I actually agree with Rels now that her play is way too chaotic and over the top that it doesn't make any sense as scumplay.

Outoforder is still one of my stronger townreads. While I was midly annoyed with his play today, I think just scumreading me for not grasping what he's saying about Fitz is borne more out of townie frustration. I can't see scum scumreading people they are trying to persuade because they got pissed. That combined with his play during the beginning of the game makes me fairly confident that he's town.

So, Hap, KidAmn, Cass, Outoforder are town for sure.

I think Hawk is probably town. The way he kept analyzing Hap and Rels combined with his walls have me townreading him but he hasn't been much of a factor in the day's lynch. He dismissed stuff as meta while becoming convinced by my case while always intending to vote Hap. I need to re-read him more in-depth.

I think HavingFitz is probably town. Part of my read was based on how he also suspected Hap but I do still think his suspicion of Hap based on Outoforder and Rels suspecting him, and then asking probing questions about the group dynamics at TL makes me lean town. I'd like a more substantial position on Aubrey though who I'm very confident is scum. He seemed to be in your scumleans at first but then becomes a null-read.

Rels is a player I would like to be town but I'm not quite sure why he's set on lynching Hap when he doesn't seem sure about it at all. This contrasts with his insistence that 30 hours is enough time to swing a lynch so deadline concerns are not the primary reason.

I didn't like that Creature was following the thread closely enough to quickly answer a question I had within seconds but disappeared the moment I asked him about Aubrey. There's also a lot of stuff that's missing that I've seen from town-Creature in a previous game. The active, engaged scumhunting. I just don't see why he's disinterested in the game. I don't think Hap is scum anymore so I'd like some help from you gamesolving if you are town here.

Doomfeathers is a player I've completely forgotten about. He hasn't been posting at all and I need to look over his ISO which I've been putting off because of how many quote-walls there are which gives it a disjointed feel. I don't like that he's been baiting Hap though.

Kop has been a complete non-entity. He made a couple of posts I liked but could very well be scum.

Aubrey is scum for all the reasons I've listed so far. His latest discrediting of my read on him by saying that I won't change my mind even after reading his ISO feels pre-emptive and I think he's actively trying to play with Cassielle's frustrated feelings with me.

I don't like that Hap is the only option today and I want to provide a counter-option. I'm willing to work with people to switch elsewhere but I'm putting my vote on my top suspect. We have a little more than a day left and everyone should check in by that time.

VOTE: Aubrey

[BlackVoid]

To summarize my reads:

I have Hap, KidAmn, Cass, and outoforder as town. Aubrey as scum. I need to re-read Hawk, Fitz, Doom, Kop, Rels, and Creature more closely which I'm going to do right now to see how they interacted with Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

I don't want a Hap lynch today. If he's town, he's very useful and once he finds more time, I think he can give a lot of good content. I wouldn't be opposed to a utility lynch on Kop if I can't get Aubrey today. He's not a strong townread and has flown under most people's radars.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know. Rels is a tossup for me. I like the points he raised about Aubrey and I like that he sees where I'm coming from. Someone I wouldn't want to lose if town. But I'll re-read ISO and let you know what I think.

It's not true that last minute deadline wagons always hit town. I can pull up plenty of examples for you where a deadline wagon hit scum. Mini 1843: D2 wagons were between Jaack and Hoopla for the most part. They were both town. I backed off of Hoopla at the last minute and helped her push a Sotty7 lynch through. She was scum. D4 wagons were all over the place. Creature was under pressure. At the last minute, I changed my mind and pushed through a MariaR lynch instead. She was scum. I'm sure you can find lots of examples of deadline wagons hitting scum.

The point is I don't think Hap is flipping scum nor do I think he's an acceptable loss if town. Aubrey is lock-scum and the one player I have no question will flip scum. Kop

might

flip scum or town but even if town, that'll remove a question mark in most people's minds and help with wagon analysis. He's not contributing anything anyways. Lurkscum are usually good deadline targets. I'll go over Rels' ISO and tell you what I think. In the meantime, give me your thoughts on these two players.

[BlackVoid]

You do realize that I replaced in three days ago and the game is forty-five pages long and many dense walls. I barely had time to settle into my reads and push them and analyze reactions and actually even read the game completely. Of course any change I make is going to cutting it pretty close. I've been working as fast as I can since replacing in. I've been reading and looking over other games constantly whenever I could find free time. I've had no chance to interact with Hap at all to see if my read there could be wrong. To dismiss all that and just keep calling me scum is frustrating. I'm trying to work with you here.

[BlackVoid]

Quite frankly, I don't mind a no lynch. In this setup, we're starting with an even number of players. So, no lynching means this goes one of two ways:

- We get to odds and we stay at odds as no scum die in the night.
- We get to odds and move back to evens as a scum hits a PGO and dies in the night.

Either scenario is not bad. If we indeed move back to evens, we at least have a free scum death. In the worse scenario (no free scum death), we stay at odds. No lynching in this setup doesn't carry the same connotations and detriment as in a normal 13P game. That said, I'm not advocating no lynch as a first option. Just that it isn't the worst outcome mechanically in this setup.

Oh ffs, I'm not "misrepresenting" you. Most D1 wagons hit town. There's no reason to believe that a D1 deadline wagon will hit town any more than a regular D1 wagon.

[BlackVoid]

If you legitimately think I'm scum trying to get a wagon off my buddy 24 hours before deadline when I could have just let KidAmn get lynched, I don't know what to tell you. If you try and work with me here, I'm fine looking over Rels and discussing. If not, then we're done.

[BlackVoid]

"I don't know where kid is getting the idea me and Rels are going ham on counterwagons" - currently voting Aubrey a completely unviable wagon

Well, I'm impressed with your ability to time travel and figure out that I'd be voting Aubrey in the future when you said that.

Why if I'm scum with Hap did I derail your wagon and try to get one on Hap? (By the way, this was before I voted Aubrey).

[BlackVoid]

So, Rels' interactions with Aubrey before today are fairly mundane and nothing rules them out as being partners. Aubrey saying that "if Hap flips town and Rels is scum, you should be looked into" is I think a partner-y interaction where he knows that that's the outcome. From Rels' end, I don't know if I agree with what he's saying about Aubrey "deflecting" and I don't think he really understood the depth of my Aubrey read. "Sitting on Hapa, not moving" is not even close to why I suspect Aubrey. I don't like the dichotomy he presents that KidAmn/Hap are mafia because I think they are both town and he scumreads Aubrey but is fairly okay with a Hap lynch. I don't know. I could see him as scum and would vote there if it's between Hap and Rels. But I want to take a shot at getting Aubrey today and would like to hear back from Rels about whether he's willing to help me lynch Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

Going to bed right now. Please don't lynch in the next few hours. I'll check back in the morning. By the way, there's no reason we all have to agree on a single lynch. Counterwagons are good and all the people voting vanity wagons need to show up and discuss options so we can get a viable counterwagon going. I'm not hugely opposed to Rels but I think we can do better with Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz -

lynch Aubrey with me.

[BlackVoid]

Your major concern with Hap was how he jumped on your wagon after Aubrey, right? Well, I have a hard time seeing him post the way he did towards the end of the day and I'm super-confident Aubrey is scum so I think you're looking at scum who voted you with weak reasoning and town wagoning right after as opposed to the other way around. If you have misgivings about Hap, you're right. The way Aubrey was taking on an almost consulting role where he just pops in and offers comments while never taking stances or pushing anyone has transparent scum motivation. We don't need everyone to vote Hap anyways. Join me here and we'll see how the VC turns out in the end.

[BlackVoid]

Posts like this are the reason I'm very hesitant to lynch anyone that's a voice of reason among the town. With you and KidAmn both being town posting like you have been, and outoforder barely even caught up, I'm at least hoping that once Hap has time to play, he picks up his game tomorrow.

Ten minutes of looking over my two scumgames and a sample of my towngames will tell you that this is blatantly my towngame. I don't think I've ever driven games as scum.

[BlackVoid]

Like he townreads Hapa....and lock scums me, but I've been constantly saying how I doubt Hapa's lynch a bit. If one scum-reads me, then they should also think "holy shit, maybe Aubrey is busing his partner while trying to disband it at the same time." And he's basically town reading him similar to all the points I raised, commented, and asked.

lol I. Can't. Even. What's worse he could actually pull this off maybe.

Why should I be thinking specific things that you want me to be thinking? That's not what I got from your posts. I could see you and Hap distancing mildly while not pushing suspicion of each other. But I independently townread Hap after looking over his posts. If Hap flips scum, I still think you are his most likely partner but I doubt he will.

[BlackVoid]

To whichever four of Fitz, Creature, Rels, Kop, Hawk, doomfeathers are actually town (which I'll figure out when I wake up tomorrow): think about why Hap is even a lynch candidate in the first place:

Creature's vote I don't understand because Creature never gives reasons. If you are town here, trust me, Aubrey is scum. You expected me to solve the game when I replaced in. Well, I've solved about half of it. Aubrey is for-sure scum no question about it and KidAmn, Cass, Hap, and outoforder are town. You should get off of town and vote someone actually scummy.

Hawk intends to vote Hap because of my case. Re-reading I don't feel the same way at all.

Kop still is voting Rels. I have no idea what Doomfeathers is thinking. I'll know what Fitz and Rels thinking tomorrow.

Here's how I know Hap will flip town: his complete frustration at being voted for non-reasons mirrors how I'm feeling as far as my strong townreads are concerned. I don't understand a thing KidAmn posts. Cass has just been screaming "Hap is scum, BV is scum" and KidAmn has been buying that. Outoforder suspects me because I didn't share his suspicion of Fitz. It's just dealing with this made me realize how Hap must have felt in this town.

Outoforder and Rels, if you are not sure about Hap, you should be working with me to secure a lynch we can all live with so we have more time to sort Hap tomorrow. I'm town. Look at my wiki at ANY of my games. It's so obvious I'm town it's not funny. And work with me here.

Aubrey's posting in the last page is so scummy anyone not seeing it needs their scumdar examined.

[BlackVoid]

Aubrey's entire play has revolved around setting people up. He critiques Hap's KidAmn case and accuses Hap of exploiting a newbie. Then says that if KidAmn and Fitz both are town, he'd be suspicious of Hap.

He claims that if Rels is scum and Hap is town, he'd be suspicious of me.

He claims that only one of Hap and Fitz are scum which subtly serves to separate them so that one of them flipping town isn't a detriment to continue lynching the other.

He's not actively trying to sort players or read them. He's hanging back setting people up.

The things that are scumreading me for and the things you are townreading him for are the very things you should reverse when you are scumhunting. I've been aggressively pushing players for answers. You keep screaming misrep because you disagree with my arguments. Did you notice how Aubrey pretty much agreed with me that your post on Hap/Rels was weird? But he didn't call you scum. He was rather careful not to do that and piss you off. He skirted around the edges, agreeing with me, stroking your ego a little (mighty Cass), tried to buddy me but never really attacked you or did anything to upset what was going on. That's what scumplay looks like.

[BlackVoid]

I could see the "mighty Cass" comment as sarcasm. But the context of it was still that you are such a strong town player that no scum would go after you (which is what he was calling me town for). There was a serious ego-stroke behind it even though that particular phrase might have been sarcasm if you follow what I mean.

Whatever you said about Hap in the post you voted Rels was something I attacked you on. You said I misrepped you. Aubrey agreed with what I was saying in essence what you thought was a misrep. But unlike me, he didn't attack you over it. He held back because he didn't want to get his hands dirty.

I didn't like KidAmn buddying you either but it was done differently (he pretty much said he'll sheep you. There was no strategic holding back and tiptoeing around the way Aubrey is doing.) I also had other good strong reasons to townread KidAmn. Stuff we agree on like his ATE.

I don't agree with the distinction you are drawing between cautiousness being a scumtell only from D2 onwards. I'm going to push for scum lynches once I feel confident about them. I'm not going to wait an arbitrary number of days before I do that, nor do I care that it "looks like conf-bias."

I don't think Hap's townflip will solve anything which is why I don't want to lynch him. Aubrey's scumflip will get us much closer to solving the game.

[BlackVoid]

What I mean is, if I see scummy behavior from Aubrey, I'm not going to hold back until D2 and mislynch a townie on D1 just so that I don't appear conf-biased on him when I eventually push him. That's scrub play.

[BlackVoid]

Did hapa do something to change your mind?

Well, he didn't post. If you mean what posts of his changed my mind, basically where he lashed out at the town for suspecting him and got really frustrated at the lack of a case. At first glance, I dismissed it as scum just annoyed at being voted for the "wrong reasons" but realized as I engaged with townies like Cass and KidAmn that his frustration was mostly legitimate.

Look at Aubrey's posts last night. They are all intended to discredit and try to make it look like he and Cass have to suffer. He's indulging Cass because Cass is complaining about me. That's scum manipulation at its finest.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz, if you are here, can we discuss Aubrey?

Here...catching up. If this request still applies...go for it.

Well, I was hoping for your thoughts. I've been posting about Aubrey all night. Basically I think he's scum. Let's lynch him.

[BlackVoid]

Regarding Hap, there's also little stuff like "you wish it were that easy, didn't you" to outoforder backing off of him that really read genuine. But most importantly, his cases are a lot better than I initially thought they were - the KidAmn case I still think is wrong but I like where he elaborates on how KidAmn was saying Creature's playstyle was non-alignment indicative but voting him anyways. I still think his Fitz suspicion was based on the walls is not very good but outoforder did the same thing this morning which tells me it's more of a playstyle thing among that social group rather than a scum-Hap making a terrible argument because he can't come up with better ones. His arguments on Cass I initially thought were bussing but after interacting with Cass, I felt like his emotions reflected how I felt at several points and if he was town and had Cass bring those points up against him, he'd react the way he did "you can't possibly think this!"

[BlackVoid]

Aubrey's posting even before has been scummy but it's when he started egging Cass on that I knew for sure that he was scum. Cass was mad at me for -I don't know- because I suspected and apparently misrepped her. It's when he started making these little "I know right, BV is terrible" style of posting that I figured he was scum. It reminded me so much of how when I was tunelling Rask in Mini 18whatever and Rask was lashing out at me. Then MariaR jumped in and started doing the same thing which read as really disingenuous.

If you make Aubrey a viable wagon, we'll gain a ton of info after his scumflip as to who was willing to vote him and who wasn't.

[BlackVoid]

Look at the entirety of Aubrey's contribution to the game: it's always taking background stances to what's going on. He makes good points at times but that's something that comes from good scum. He never gets involved or gets his hands dirty. When Hap made this giant push on KidAmn, he accused Hap of "exploiting a newbie" in a very generic way and suggested subtly that if KidAmn and Fitz were both town, Hap would be #1 on his list of suspects. He never said "that case in BS, Hap is scum and push Hap." It took a very long time and lots of persuasion to finally vote Hap.

When I questioned Cass and Hawk about their "Hap is scum but vote Rels" stances, Aubrey just stayed in the background throughout this and later registered his agreement with me. He never took any sort of stance on what this said about Cass's or Hawk's alignments. That's not town genuinely hunting for scum. That's scum having reads that he thinks are plausible and believable. He never cares about trying to sort alignments, just posts what he thinks sounds reasonable.

I've gone over his lack of interest in the lynch today which is exclusive to this game for reasons unknown.

[BlackVoid]

i expect a wall of an apology after all of the walls I had to read from you when I flip green.

Anything I say is just going to get twisted to meet your scum ideals.

He was calling me town just a few posts ago and now suddenly I'm scum. He can't decide between calling me bad and calling me scum

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz - as far as Aubrey's posting goes, he did eventually post a readslist but nothing in that list has taken into consideration his earlier concerns with Cass and Hawk that he agreed with when I raised them. Look at his posting before he posted the list (saying that people voting Rels for associatives was a concern) but when he does post a readslist, he says nothing about these concerns which shows me it's all just for show and not something he's been genuinely considering or gamesolving.

Vote Aubrey with me and we'll see who joins. I feel more confident about this lynch than I've felt about anyone all game. We don't have to all vote Hap. If we can build a counterwagon, it's going to give people a choice. Aubrey is a legitimate D1 option if you help me make it so since I'm active enough to drive it home. If your only concern is that we may not have the numbers, just vote him and leave it to me.

(I seem to have misread the previous post so ignore that)

[BlackVoid]

No, I'm not an alt.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I read through a bunch of your games after you replaced in to compare how your town replace in looked like as opposed to your scum replace in.

[BlackVoid]

Fitz is pretty town for that discussion and vote on Aubrey when he could have easily just laid low and not said anything.

For Hawk and outoforder: Here's what I mean regarding Aubrey not actually being interested in the outcome of the day. Consider when I replaced in and posted my thoughts as I was catching up, all Aubrey did was post 856. Look at that post - there's nothing in it that's game advancing content in a "who should we lynch?" way. It's just stuff he's arguing with people with no real drive forward. Then right after I post a massive list of reads and case on Hap and everyone jumps onto the Rels wagon, Aubrey posts 878 talking about Creature's daytalk comment. See what happens right after I post my 859. Cassielle, Hawk, and KidAmn react to it. Aubrey's post is just so irrevelant to what's happening in the thread and it feels like he's stalling to let others take positions before he commits to anything. Then there's 919. The is before I pushed the heck out of him where he still trying to buddy me and get on my good side where he comments on "people" giving me shit and agrees with my theory argument with Cass and Hawk. Never says a thing about Cass or Hawk's alignments. Doesn't even say he wants to lynch Hap. Just a mafia theory argument that has nothing to do with alignments. Then there's 924 where after I prod him, he reluctantly takes waffly stances on both Hap and Rels and votes Hap. Here's what he says regarding Cass and Hawk but he never mentions them by name:

I'm not in support of a Rels lynch, over a Hapa lynch, if the reasoning is mostly based on association with a scum!Hapa (which is what it seems to be). Those who think otherwise worry me. Especially when they keep Hapa open to lynch, but highly prefer and support the Rels lynch on association with Hapa.

He expresses concerns that vague nameless people want Rels as an associative lynch. But when I ask him for a readslist which he posts after much prodding, these concerns never materealize anywhere in that list. See 950. That's a scum reasonable-sounding readslist. Not a town one where he's actually considering events and factoring them into his reads. His earlier concerns show up nowhere in the list.

[BlackVoid]

@Hap, just look over my post right above yours and skim along for my case on Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

1101 has my updated thoughts as well. @Hap.

[BlackVoid]

Can we just lynch Kop? Where is he in all of this madness?

Let's do Aubrey. Kop is a tossup for me. Aubrey I can confidently say is flipping mafia.

[BlackVoid]

I don't buy Aubrey's ATE and threat to replace out because he got pushed in a game of mafia for a grand total of one night. It seems more like he's trying to align his emotions with what he thinks Cass and you (Hap) might be feeling.

[BlackVoid]

Currently thinking it is Aubrey and any two of Creature, Doomfeathers, Kop, and Rels. So, I'd give it a 50-50 shot on any of those last four flipping mafia. I'd actually really like your take on Aubrey's posting over the last 10 or so pages.

[BlackVoid]

Mind elaborating on why? Creature has been avoiding giving any opinion on Aubrey and dodges important questions. Just read how Creature reacted to my Aubrey push last night compared with Fitz. Saying Creature is town and Fitz is scum is a pretty huge stretch.

[BlackVoid]

Did I dodge one question of yours? Maybe I simply don't know how to answer it.

Well, it's really obvious that you are reading along every page and every post. But when I asked you for your thoughts on Aubrey and made a case on him, you just disappeared from the thread entirely.

[BlackVoid]

I'm still reading, I don't know what to post.

Vote Aubrey with me? And you really should have figured I'm town by now. Let's get this wagon kicking off and we'll have the game solved by D2.

Haven't played with him as scum but I saw a recent game where he endgamed town. He seems like the kind of player that can make reasonable sounding posts which is what he's been doing all game. But there's no real scumhunting drive behind them. The readslist he posted is extremely generic and looks like one that scum thought would be most reasonable, not one that takes into account his reads and stances.

[BlackVoid]

Just me and Fitz so far.

[BlackVoid]

UNVOTE:

On phone, will explain when I get home. Please don't lynch Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

Thank god I managed to get that in. I literally ran to the nearest coffee shop with wifi to unvote.

Basically, I don't think Aubrey's play is something he faked. The more I reflected on it, the more I realized that "don't listen to BV after I flip green" and "I'll expect walls of apologies from you" in the context that Aubrey said it is unlikely to come from scum. I don't think he's faking it and my confidence in a scumflip is pretty much gone.

Here's where I am:

Found Hawk's post to be really opportunistic here -

VOTE: Aubrey

I don't think town Aubrey gets frustrated there the way he does. He hasn't pushed the game forward at all just consigned that Rels and Hapa were the lynches of the day despite not 100% liking a Hapa lynch. Scum Aubrey is very cunning and I haven't played with him in a scum game where he's been scumread early so I don't know how genuine he can fake AtE, but I do know that in my last game WITH Aubrey as scum he took a backseat to me leading town and successfully had me and the rest of town town reading him for days before finally we hit f3 and there was no possible way for him to be town in my eyes and I had to scramble to figure out how to convince our backup role cop that he was scum and I wasnt.

He literally said "I don't think town Aubrey gets frustrated here" which feels so much like made up reasoning to hop on to an opportunistic wagon. This entire paragraph is so ridiculous which basically comes down to "Aubrey fooled me and I'm voting him now."

@Hap, outoforder, Aubrey - can we go for a Hawk lynch? I'm going to leave my vote here.

VOTE: Hawk

[BlackVoid]

By the way sorry Aubrey. I was wrong.

[BlackVoid]

I mean look over that paragraph closely and he's just rehashing general talking points "Aubrey didn't push the game forward," "consigned? that Rels and Hap are the lynches today" with a dash of fake paranoia thrown in "scum Aubrey is very cunning" and then basically ends by saying that he doesn't know whether or not Aubrey can fake this but is voting him because he got fooled last time.

None of that feels like townie paranoia. Town who got fooled last time would be wary of that person and trying to sort them out and putting them under a microscope, questioning them and so on. Hawk here townreads Aubrey all game and when a viable wagon shows up on him, throws that "paranoia" on him and puts a vote down.

[BlackVoid]

You are getting mad at all the wrong things. If you legitimately believed that Aubrey would flip scum, you'd be arguing that he's indeed scum, not pointing at other people on the wagon and telling me that THEIR jump was scummier than yours. That shows you know Aubrey will flip town and you're preparing to point fingers at others tomorrow.

[BlackVoid]

No what's oppurtunistic is someone like Creature saying he's willing to sheep any wagon he sees as fucking gaining traction.

But you voted after Creature. Why didn't you call him out then?

[BlackVoid]

I was confident before because all of Aubrey's reactions to me hadn't sunk in at that point.

I didn't say anything about your reservations about an Aubrey lynch. I'm saying the reasoning you used "I can't see Aubrey get frustrated like this as town" is made-up reasoning. If anything town are more likely than scum to be frustrated. It looked like you cobbled together whatever you could at that moment to hop onto a lynch wagon.

[BlackVoid]

None of what you just said makes any logical sense. You call me head up my ass town but the behaviors you describe seem to be you trying to paint me as scum. On the one hand, you call Aubrey scum, then on the other you say I'm town just like Aubrey said.

Also, trying to paint it like "no one else is voting Aubrey" is wrong. If I hadn't unvoted, I'm pretty sure someone would have compromised onto him as a lynch. There weren't any other viable options.

You are simultaneously complaining that I pressured Aubrey "to the point of insanity" while also calling him scum. Literally nothing in that post is consistent.

[BlackVoid]

Let's go for Hawk. I'm townreading KidAmn and I'm not really feeling Kop either way.

[BlackVoid]

I don't understand why you are not willing to lynch Hawk, Rels. You were the one who said yesterday that he was likely scum and had him in your pool of lynches. Since then he's only gotten scummier, something which you pointed out yourself too. I don't get the sudden switch back to just KidAmn and Kop.

[BlackVoid]

I'm also not quite clear on your position on Aubrey. I thought we were on the same page yesterday where you agreed that Aubrey's play was scummy. I hard-pushed a wagon on him and then backed off now. Do you have an opinion on all of that?

[BlackVoid]

I don't think they are remotely town. The reasoning he used to vote Aubrey and his reaction upon me calling him by saying "look at those people" is not townie at all.

[BlackVoid]

Kop has been completely unremarkable and I don't understand how you made the leap from scumreading Hawk to townreading him for bad reasons right before deadline.

[BlackVoid]

If anything Hawk's play today has been more scummy than before.

[BlackVoid]

Actually that Kop makes perfect sense. I just read it. He's saying that you backing off of Hap was weird and indicated that either you were distancing from a partner and then backed off OR you pushed a town-Hap and then backed off for the towncred. In either scenario, you are scum so he votes you. Fairly straightforward logic.

[BlackVoid]

You misunderstood his post. You are saying in the two scenarios, Hap is more likely scum. That's not what he said. Kop is saying that your backoff from Hap was weird and suspects you. He could see:
a) Scum-Rels backing off from partner Hap.
b) Scum-Rels backing off from town Hap.
He wants to flip you so if you flip scum, he can re-assess with that knowledge and see what he thinks. It looks pretty cut and dry to me. I'm not sure exactly what he means by "think twice" but I'd rather him answer it and it's nowhere near the smoking gun you are making it seem like, especially in comparison to Hawk's posting.

Pedit: Then vote Hawk with me. It won't be a wasted vote. Outoforder scumreads him. Creature and Aubrey don't seem to be townreading him either and I think they'll be here at deadline.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, I'll tell you what: vote Hawk with me today and I'll promise to give your Kop case a really close look tomorrow.

[BlackVoid]

I already said I don't find the post you quoted scummy. I don't have time to re-read his entire ISO and consider it in context of the rest of the game. I'm not really optimistic it'll be a scumflip.

[BlackVoid]

You didn't have this response when I initially accused you though. Your reaction was basically wait, what? Creature and others jumped on more opportunistically than me! If you sincerely believed that Aubrey was scum, I'd expect your reaction would be more along the lines of "don't be dumb and hop off a scum wagon because you're paranoid" of something of that sort. You just assumed that Aubrey was town and there would be opportunistic votes on his wagon.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz - I want to lynch scum. I'm not going to continue trying to lynch someone when they towntell if I think there's a chance of saving them. I know I've been constantly re-evaluating reads but I've barely replaced in a few days ago and trying my best to get my bearings on this game. I don't really understand your townread on Hawk. Can you elaborate for me?

[BlackVoid]

Feeling pretty confident scum don't want to bus Hawk right now and would prefer to take the easy Kop lynch which I'm starting to think is town just based on how he is the counterwagon to Hawk.

[BlackVoid]

Right. That was your unfiltered, raw, in-the-moment reaction which is why I don't think you thought out properly how you would approach it as town.

[BlackVoid]

I'm like sleeping soon, deadline is reaching and soon my vote will be locked.

Free cookies if it's on Hawk. I know I'm changing my mind a lot here but Aubrey's reaction convinced me he was town and Hawk's reasons there were just bad.

[BlackVoid]

Except I changed my mind on Aubrey. I think Rels has a decent chance of being your partner but I'm not sure of that.

Still awake Creature?

[BlackVoid]

I just can't see Hawk's reasons for voting Aubrey making any sense from a town POV but make plenty of sense as opportunistic voting and his reaction to me confirmed that. I hadn't called Rels a Hawk-partner before I don't think. I just think scum would be reluctant to bus Hawk here and after his scumflip, I'll be looking into people who didn't vote him.

[BlackVoid]

Except I changed my mind on Aubrey. I think Rels has a decent chance of being your partner but I'm not sure of that.

Still awake Creature?

-_-;; BV you're an idiot. Not only are you stuck in confirmation bias but you're reaching. Why does Rels put his vote on me and go to sleep a few hours before end of day if he's my buddy.

Towncred. I had to prod him a lot to get him to vote you by pointing out how he had scumread you and was backing out when there's a chance you'll be lynched. If you get lynched and flip scum without his vote, it's pretty much game over for him so he has to. This way, there's still a lot of ambiguity.

[BlackVoid]

Thoughts on Hawk?

[BlackVoid]

With your vote, we can pretty much make it the most likely lynch. Go for it.

[BlackVoid]

Would really, really prefer Hawk and he has more votes too.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, well people change their minds with new info.

[BlackVoid]

@Creature, I think we're looking at Fitz/Hawk.

[BlackVoid]

Please vote Hawk.

[BlackVoid]

That's three votes. Aubrey and Hap will be back so hopefully that'll make it five. Outoforder scumreads Hawk as well and I'm sure we can find someone to hammer.

[BlackVoid]

Hawk/Fitz/Rels. That's my scumteam guess.

[BlackVoid]

The whole bizarre idea that Hawk had that Rels was trying to get towncred from the Hap townflip I think is inside information. Rels also seemed really reluctant to vote Hawk despite having him as a scumread but eventually relented. And you did see how Hawk jumped onto your wagon, right?

[BlackVoid]

You were towntelling hard. I'm only sorry it took me that long to realize. I'll have to skip out on the paragraph long apology because I backed off in time though. One sentence will have to do.

[BlackVoid]

If you look at how Hawk has approached this game, there's so much stuff that's weird inside information. I'll also tell you this: I was holding onto this piece of information until I could ascertain Fitz's alignment for certain - Fitz hates bussing in general. When he was willing to vote you but not Hawk, that's when it confirmed to me that they were partnered.

[BlackVoid]

Vote Hawk with me.

[BlackVoid]

When Hap and Outoforder show up again, I'm sure they'll vote too and Kop can hammer.

[BlackVoid]

I did have more points against Aubrey than for. But I don't think they outweigh the fact that his reaction has been incredibly town.

[BlackVoid]

@Aubrey - look at Hawk's reaction to you in general. He's been townreading you for the most part but when I pushed a case and a wagon started to form, he decided to hop on. Look at the actual reasoning he gave: I can't see Aubrey being frustrated as town - that's a nonsense filler reason scum use to hop onto wagons at deadline. Then he rehashed some general points: Aubrey hasn't been pushing lynches and has been laid back and such. Then concluded with "Aubrey is very cunning and endgamed me" and cast his vote. That's not the vote on townie genuinely persuaded that you were scum.

When I called him out on it, he didn't say "but Aubrey is scum" which is what he'd say if he believed a word he wrote. Instead, he said "look at Creature's vote. How is that not opportunistic?" He knows you'll flip is already comparing how he looks with regard to the rest of your wagon.

[BlackVoid]

Kop is the easy mislynch that scum are trying to push. Notice how Rels was questioning Hawk but ultimately voted Kop until I pressed him on it. Then Fitz showed up and started defending Hawk. Fitz was okay lynching Hap. He was okay lynching you. But he's not okay lynching Hawk. And he has zero good reasons to townread him.

[BlackVoid]

Go for it.

[BlackVoid]

Some of your posts last night rang town but I was hoping that I was right and that you were scum posting that. Outoforder posted some good reasoning as well - that you wouldn't just say you'll replace out and get pissed. I was hoping that was fake too but I kept thinking about the game at work and checking in on your ISO at work whenever I got the chance. At point, it became apparent that you were town and assuming that your annoyance at me was scum faking just started to feel like wishful thinking. So, I went over again with the mindset that you were town and everything started making perfect sense as a frustrated townie being wrongly pushed. It was a similar process I had with Hap when I realized that he was most likely town. So, once I figured that out while driving, I ran to the nearest place that had wifi so I could unvote before a lynch happened.

[BlackVoid]

With daytalk, if he was scum, his buddies would be telling him what to do and where to vote and I'm sure he would have checked there to see what's going on rather than "oh, I'm tired, heading to bed" post. He gets mislynched really often as town and no one really fits as his buddy anyway.

[BlackVoid]

It's Hawk, Fitz, and Rels though. Kop pushing on Rels makes him likely town.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, but he's Kop and a quick glance of his games tells me he's not a super pro-town player who would think to check such a thing. I find more likely he just lazily posted in the game thread before disappearing.

[BlackVoid]

I think I'll be here till deadline.

[BlackVoid]

It's seven to lynch, the three of us voting Kop won't give us a lynch.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah. With three more votes, he'll be at L-1...

[BlackVoid]

In any case, I don't want to lynch Kop. You said you wanted to lynch both of them, right? I'm very particular about wanting to lynch Hawk. Since you are so sure I'm town, you know I'm saying that because I'm trying to manipulate anything. Let's go with Hawk since you're fine lynching him. I'm really not fine lynching Kop today.

[BlackVoid]

Hawk/Fitz/Rels. Kop is not hugely town by any means but he does have some town moments like that vote on Rels.

[BlackVoid]

He doesn't fit as scum with anyone else. It's nothing more than a feel-good lynch. The way Hawk jumped onto Aubrey with the reasoning he gave was really opportunistic.

[BlackVoid]

Well yeah, it's Fitz, Hawk, and Rels. You're right. Hammer hawk please.

[BlackVoid]

Outoforder

KidAmn

Doomfeathers

- That replace out was a town move. Scum at this point would just take the guaranteed Aubrey mislynch.

Aubrey

Cass

- For the hawk vote, and for mirroring my thought process at several times during the day.

Creature

- For the hawk vote.

KidAmn

Kop

- Not scum with Fitz.

Hap

- Not sure. Weakest townread but I like that Hawk vote. There's a possibility it's him and not Rels though.

Rels

- Doesn't vote Hawk until prodded despite questioning him and has KidAmn and Kop as his preferred lynches.

Fitz

- Obviously defending Hawk.

Hawk

- Soon to be dead scum.

[BlackVoid]

Outoforder and KidAmn reads are the same from my previous two readslists. Aubrey is town for his reactions to pressure. Creature is town if Hawk is scum. Kop is town if Fitz is scum. Hawk and Fitz are for-sure scum. The last one can be between Rels and Hap. Both voted Hawk. But I trust Hap more.

[BlackVoid]

You can be right though. Rels usually doesnt ignore what i say, especially when he should see the same thing i did.

Curious about this - what did Rels ignore and what should he have seen?

[BlackVoid]

You can't be serious.

[BlackVoid]

I have no idea where I went wrong if that's the case.

[BlackVoid]

I hope you are trolling because I have a really hard time seeing who could be scum if not you.

@Outoforder, makes sense. Something to look into tomorrow I suppose.

[BlackVoid]

What are your final reads?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I'm here. I was hoping to see contributions from Hap and Rels before I posted so I could have their uninfluenced thoughts but it's been a day and I just want to get a move on.

HavingFitz is my top scumread for the defense of Hawk and vote on Kop. From re-reading overnight, I also find his scumreads very convenient. Aubrey is a scumread because of Aubrey's push on him. Hap is a scumread because Hap agreed with Aubrey and voted him. outoforder is a scumread because of the way outoforder pushed him. The only scumread there that's not based on how they pushed Fitz is Cass. So this question to Hap is just laced with irony:

Question to hapa...have you voiced any suspicions towards players that was not based in part on them suspecting you first?

In light of this, Question to Fitz - have you voiced any suspicions towards players that was not based in part on them suspecting you first? Cass is the only one I can see. Nearly all your scumreads are because they pushed you.

That's the easy part though. I'm not really confident on who the remaining scum is so I'm going to do a thorough POE on everyone else. I also don't want the day ending anytime soon before we've gamesolved and all agreed on who the final two scum are.

@outoforder - Doom's replace out isn't the end-all of my townread on his slot. There was more to it and the replace out just cemented an existing townread. I think if he were scum, he'd be more likely to tell his buddies that he was going to replace out and agree to wait until they can seal another mislynch and replace out during the night. I also thought the way he posted a final guess for the scumteam was his way of wanting to see how accurate his reads were and it's one of those things I doubt scum would bother to fake. As far as his actual content, I'm going to go over it once again just to make sure and I'd also like to discuss all of our reads and get on the same page before we go to night.

[BlackVoid]

I'm here. I was confused at what CEST was compared to GMT/UTC but right now it's 6:30 AM PST and I just woke up. This is probably the earliest I can be here.

As far as Hap is concerned, I was ready to write him off as town based on his reactions to pressure and the fact that everyone was scumreading him. But some of Hawk's posts have made me uneasy. It almost seemed like he was blaming me for derailing the Hap wagon which would make sense if he wanted to make it seem like I was partnered with him. But I guess could just be general shade-throwing of "you derailed lynches and now we're hitting deadline." 1232, 1247, 1252 are the posts I'm talking about.

[BlackVoid]

I went into N1 convinced that Fitz and Rels were the remaining scum but the thing that gives me pause is Hawk's odd vote on Rels in 888. I'm not sure why he'd put a vote there after I made a case on Hap.

I'm going back and forth between whether there's one scum in Hap/Rels and Hawk's posting was inside info and whether they are both town and Hawk was trying to set up Rels in the event of a Hap townflip.

KidAmn is the other player I've been considering and I'm glad you brought it up before I mentioned anything. He fits as a Fitz partner really well. A lot of what he's saying just doesn't make any sense (saying that Rels and I derailed the Hap wagon before I actually derailed it when I was still pushing it and Rels hadn't posted), so that's consistent throughout. I'm still holding on to his ATE-type posts as my reasons for townreading him.

[BlackVoid]

OoO, BV, and Rels all still kinda townread Hapa and are

posturing around the lynch.

With 1232, I mean this was odd phrasing and had me paranoid that he knew Hap was mafia but it's weak.

You decide to waffle on Hapa and try so hard to find a lynch off wagon. Reserved that Hapa lynch isn't happening you're pressuring Aubrey to the point of insanity and then when his lynch hits L-2 and no one else is voting (specifically OoO isn't wowed by it) You go. no wait! What about Hawk. Hawk is sus because he is saying the same thing I've been fucking saying just from his PoV.

This though felt like he was holding me accountable for trying so hard to find a lynch outside Hap so if Hap flips somewhere down the line, he could point to this.

[BlackVoid]

What do you mean with #1232? I don't see "blaming you for derailing Hapa wagon" there. To me it looks like he is happy when you made a case on Aubrey (which doesn't tell much about Hapa's alignment since as mafia having two town wagons instead of one is obviously better). The last two posts are after you made a case on him, correct? If that is so, it's probably just basic scum play -- when you have a case on you that you can't reasonably answer to you instead attack the other person or make up some meaningless stuff about something else they did instead of actually defending yourself against the case.

Okay, but if Hawk and Fitz are both scum, would they so easily jump off of the guaranteed Hap mislynch for a potential Aubrey mislynch when they could just take the Hap mislynch and wait for me tunnel Aubrey the following day?

You are right that two town counterwagons are better than one but they come at the risk of the scum looking opportunistic when they switch over which is exactly what happened. I also don't like that Hap posted in a different game since this thread open but hasn't posted here for over a day and a half. It's clearly not because he hasn't been on site.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know. I assume Aubrey has played with them, correct? I also assume Hapa hasn't, correct? If that's the case i don't see why they wouldn't.
The other thing in town!Aubrey lynch favored against town!Hapa lynch is that they then have BlackVoid who "derailed the lynch onto a townie" so you again have 2 pushable town wagons on D2.

But okay, let's say fitz and Hapa are mafia here. Why does Hapa vote Hawk "so easily"? Why not try to lynch someone like Kop (or no-lynch)?

I've actually been wondering about Hap's vote on Hawk. Logically, he

should

have been voting Kop. He suspected Kop throughout even towards the end of the day. He barely said anything about Hawk. So, why

wouldn't

a town-Hap argue for a Kop lynch? I'm thinking about the possibility he just cleanly bussed there so pressure then turns to the people who hesitated to vote Hawk (Rels, maybe KidAmn). I suppose it's also possible he just didn't think that a Kop lynch would happen there. But Kop already had three votes. Aubrey and Cass were online which would have made it six and when you showed up, you would have hammered (or I would have reluctantly hammered Kop). Hap had a chance to get a scumread lynched and voted someone else in their place.

[BlackVoid]

Is it normal for town-Hap to sheep? I haven't seen him do that in the limited games of his I've played with or seen on mafiascum.

@Fitz - most of your reads besides Cass and Kop are of people that pushed you and the Kop read didn't happen till the end of day. Why would you consider it worthy of questioning Hap on omgus read when you've been doing the same thing?

Also, when you get around to it, I'd like to see more in-depth reasons for your scumreads on Hap and outoforder and townread on Rels. It's true we have a margin for error but I don't want this game to go anywhere near lylo. Too many people I don't trust to make good decisions. I'd prefer we wrap this game in the next gameday or two and not lose our advantage.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, Rels' entire push on Hap didn't look authentic. 401 looked like he was already planning for Hap to come back to the thread and look town. When Hap posted those cases, Rels' suddenly townreads him and his "current lynch candidates" then become Kop, KidAmn, and Frederick. I don't know why he would write a sentence like "The plus side is that if he's not scum he will wake up like the town god he is." Revealing that would tell a potential scum-Hap that he'd just need to be more active and Rels would retract the read. It makes much more sense to hold back on it and just see whether Hap "wakes up." The one thing giving me misgivings about a Rels scumread is 888. What do you think Hawk's motive is for voting him at that point?

[BlackVoid]

He is basically telling Hap exactly what he's looking for (smart posts and genuine frustration) and scumreading him because those weren't present. But then leaves an out by saying that if Hap does show that in the future, then he'll withdraw his scumread.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah that comment he made "HavingFitz is definitely lackluster but still an easy vote" feels like he wanted to call Hap out for voting Fitz without actually defending Fitz. That combined with Fitz's townread on Rels makes me think that could be the team so I'm looking forward to seeing Fitz elaborate there. I'm leaving now, I'll re-read the entire game tonight to rule out other possibilities. Hopefully, Rels and Hap post by then.

[BlackVoid]

Also, @outoforder, you seem to have played with scum-Rels a lot. How does he tend to treat his teammates?

[BlackVoid]

Hey Rels, while you are here, can you go over if your reads have changed at all after seeing Hawk's flip and if you got any new reads from how the end of day went down. In particular, I'm scumreading HavingFitz for pushing the Kop wagon as an alternative to Hawk and I think Kop is probably town for being a counterwagon to scum and I'd like your thoughts on that. Also, wouldn't mind hearing your best guesses for who the remaining two scum are.

[BlackVoid]

My best guess for scum right now is you (Rels) and Fitz. I'm not cheerleading so much as trying to figure out if I'm wrong by looking at other possibilities, seeing whether your reads make sense and how genuine they are. Glad to hear you'll be more active though.

[BlackVoid]

Here's where I'm at: Turns out Hap logged on last night at Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:15 pm (PST). For reference, it's now 6:15 am PST. This in addition to him posting in another game the morning after Tenshii opened D2. If it's true that Hap has a great towngame and a not-so-great scumgame, it points to him avoiding the thread. He's also due for a prod.

@mod - can you prod hapahauli?

I think if he were legitimately busy, he wouldn't be logging onto the site so often just to not post. If he had even a few minutes to post in other games, he'll have a few minutes to give spur of the moment thoughts for this game but he doesn't. @Creature, does this remind you of Smart's posting from Scumteam Unpick?

I think it's more likely he's scum than Rels. Look at how Hawk reacted when I replaced in, wrote a huge reads list and posted a case on Hap. He said it was a good one, unvoted KidAmn, and voted RELS. Why would he vote his partner when a case was made against a townie?

I'm not sure who fits as a Hap partner because everyone scumread him. I've looked over more of Fitz's games going back and there are a few where he did bus so don't rule him out completely either.

VOTE: Hapahauli

[BlackVoid]

I have no idea who his partner is. But right now, I just want to see who fits as scum with Hawk and who is scummy in their own right. "Hap can't be scum because no one can be his partner" creates a falsely closed lynchpool. In Mini 1843, I did that and winded up getting screwed when I should have just lynched my top scumread. I haven't finished re-reading through but I'm not willing to just let Hap skate by here.

[BlackVoid]

Hap's last login now changed to Tue Mar 07, 2017 5:21:34 am. I think it's off by a few hours and maybe only shows the last time you logged in if you are currently online. But he hasn't posted in more than forty-eight hours despite being online often.

[BlackVoid]

Hawk does spend a lot of time discrediting the Hap push though. See "

Rels and OoO are off playing Mafia on TL forums and responding with meta alignments and indications I wanna vomit at how much all of their case against Hapa initially was noise and I couldn't dig into it myself

" in 659. He also votes both Kop and KidAmn when they were counterwagons to Hap but never actually votes Hap himself despite saying he's suspicious of him.

[BlackVoid]

Actually make that Kop, KidAmn, and Rels - three counterwagons to Hap total that Hawk is on. It's only after it looked like Hap was a certain lynch that Hawk started saying "yeah, it looks like we're lynching him today anyways." I'm not entirely sure I got the timeline right so I'll re-read that part in a bit and get back on that.

[BlackVoid]

As mafia, why would you want to be on a mislynch wagon? He never also says "no, do not lynch Hapa! He is town!".

If I were scum and wanted "towncred" from a mislynch, I'd most certainly say "no, don't lynch [townie], he is town." If Hap were a mislynch, I think Hawk would be gunning for towncred by calling him town, not saying "Hap could be scum" and then voting every single counterwagon that pops up.

[BlackVoid]

But he could still have voted Kop or KidAmn while calling Hap town. That way if people winded up listening to him, he gets either the Kop or KidAmn mislynch assuming one or both of them are town. If people ignore him and mislynch Hap anyways, then he gets to say "I told you guys he was town! Now you should listen to me and lynch Kop/KidAmn."

[BlackVoid]

Actually my outoforder townread lessened a bit. If Hap flips scum, I want to look more closely there. His D1 was incredibly town but his arguments for Hap being town today have been a stretch. Who is your best guess for the third scum?

[BlackVoid]

Here are the relevant VCs in how Hawk treats the Hap wagon. You'll see full context here. Basically, he helped build a Kop counterwagon to Hap. Then as monentum switched to KidAmn, he voted there too. Finally as the KidAmn wagon dismantled and people started talking about Hap/Rels as scum, he voted Rels.

Votecount 1.8

[L-4] Hapahauli - outoforder, KidAmn, havingfitz, Creature
[L-3] Kop - doomfeathers, Rels, Hawk, Aubrey
[L-6] doomfeathers - MooginSoosy
[L-6] cassielle - hapahauli

Not voting: Kop, cassielle

For the first one, if you click on the links, you'll see that he voted Kop right after Creature voted Hap so he was building a counter-wagon. He did it with terrible reasoning: that Kop's reaction to Doom was good but that Kop didn't actually vote Doom.

Votecount 1.10

[L-4] Hapahauli - outoforder, KidAmn, Creature
[L-4] KidAmn - Rels, hapahauli, Hawk
[L-5] Kop - doomfeathers, Aubrey
[L-6] doomfeathers - MooginSoosy
[L-6] Rels - Kop

Not voting: havingfitz, cassielle

Then he helps build a KidAmn wagon as a counter to Hap. He wasn't even scumreading KidAmn. If you look at 786, he just waffles around on KidAmn and throws a bunch of shade on Rels and ties him to Hap claiming that Rels is scum regardless of what Hap's alignment was. He had no real reason to vote KidAmn but ties it with Hap wagon anyways. Once KidAmn ATEs and makes Hawk second-guess in 789, he doesn't unvote.

Votecount as of 859 where I vote Hap

[L-3] KidAmn - Rels, hapahauli, Hawk, doomfeathers,
[L-3] Hapahauli - KidAmn, Creature, BlackVoid
[L-6] Kop - Aubrey
[L-6] Rels - Kop

Not voting: havingfitz, outoforder, cassielle

So, I made a case and voted Hap while also having Rels as a null-read. In 861, Hawk unvotes but doesn't put a vote down on anyone. In 862, Cass says that she's scumreading Rels and thinks that Kop is bad town. In 866, doomfeathers switches his vote to Kop dismantling the KidAmn wagon. In 887, Kop lays out a case on Rels. In 888, Hawk follows with a vote on Rels while calling Hap scum.

Compare the way Hawk is putting down his votes with the way he talks about Hap, almost like he knows Hap will flip scum. There are several points where he says that Hap is almost definitely scum.

[BlackVoid]

By "intentionally tying himself to Hap," if you mean making Hap look guilty in case he, Hawk flips, I don't see why he would try to make a doomed townie look guilty just in case he somehow flips before that townie. Remember it looked like Hap was the lynch for the day, not Hawk until the last seven hours or so till deadline.

If you are saying he's trying to get towncred from a Hap townflip, I'd argue that he would actually call Hap town while pushing counterwagons. He wouldn't say he was very confident in a Hap scumflip while subtly laying down his votes elsewhere and working against the lynch. This is also Hawk's first game as scum so I don't expect an insane level of manipulation.

[BlackVoid]

He also seemed pretty excited once I made the case against Aubrey. I think it's because he was resigned to his buddy Hap being the lynch and suddenly this new opportunity for a mislynch occurred. He was mostly townreading Aubrey so there's no reason for him to jump through hoops to change that read to a scumread (and potentially get caught) as opposed to just say that Aubrey was town and that he would stick with Hap. He could always let me tunnel Aubrey the next day since I said Aubrey was scum if Hap was town. I think both Hap AND Hawk saw an opportunity to get Aubrey lynched at that point. Hawk's end-of-day vote was unconvincing to me and it didn't look like he changed his scumread on Aubrey at all. That's weird because when I was pushing Hawk, I was convinced Aubrey was town that Hawk was opportunistically wagoning. I don't think Hap could have actually thought Aubrey and Hawk were partnered. Hap's jump on Aubrey towards the end of day wasn't particularly compelling either.

[BlackVoid]

*That was a typo. I meant HAP's end-of-day vote was unconvincing to me and it didn't look like he changed his scumread on Aubrey at all. I'm talking about 1371.