Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[Aubrey]

....The thought that I don't care and being laid back in comparison to a number of others is kinda laughable.

[Rels]

I see what you're saying about Aubrey. Pretty laid back attitude. Trying at the same time to talk about stuff but perfectly OK sitting on Hapa not really moving.

Kinda deflecting:

I doubt Hapa's personal goal is to get lynched. To whoever suggested that.

You're probably expecting more from me than what you're going to get today. It's day one. I'm in the headspace that as long as a null or scum-lean gets lynched, I'm happy. If people start trying to direct wagons on people that I feel are likely town, then that's another story and I'll be rather proactive against it. Normally I am a bit more vocal and forceful in my reads, even with the headspace that I go about day 1. However to be frank, I'm kinda detached from this game a bit. More than normal. That being said, I don't think it is bad enough to replace out just yet and I'm invested enough to continue commenting with my general thoughts.

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I currently don't have significant town reads on either slot right now regarding Hapa or Rels. I do however find it silly to think Rels is scum based on association of Scum!Hapa without lynching Hapa first. Should you be wrong on Hapa's alignment, then your read on Rels can also easily be wrong. This idea of being 100% correct on a read (Hapa) makes me laugh, and the idea of lynching someone other than your strongest scum read (only to go back to that same read tomorrow regardless of the Day 1 flip) makes me laugh harder. I'm not in support of a Rels lynch, over a Hapa lynch, if the reasoning is mostly based on association with a scum!Hapa (which is what it seems to be). Those who think otherwise worry me. Especially when they keep Hapa open to lynch, but highly prefer and support the Rels lynch on association with Hapa. I'd rather see these two wagons pushed for independent reasons rather than associative reasons pre flip. To prefer the Rels lynch is just to me personally.

I flip flop with Hapa, but between the two likely lynches to occur I pick Hapa over Rels. VOTE: Hapa.

There is only 1 thing that makes me think Hapa could be town.

Quick dumb question that I can't wrap my mind around. Why would Scum!Hapa remotely defend the counterwagon on him (Kop) way back when? If I'm scum getting my ass handed to me it seems by the town, THE LAST THING i'm going to do is remotely defend any wagon that could possibly save my life.

Like, it just doesn't make sense at all to me. I want to say he maybe town, but I'm so fucking conflicted. I also have no idea why people thought that he was articulating his own lynch.

Hapa showed no emotion early when he was pressured by rayn; and again now he's defending himself A LOT, but in the bad sense of the way. Pushing the "EVERYBODY SCUMREADS ME FOR NO R4EASON" without showing he's pissed

Hapa read robotic to me for a bit in the beginning of the game, but this mid point of Day 1 he seems pissed to me. Getting pissed is NAI, but it does lead me down the path of believing that it is not his goal to get lynched at all. All that talk about him planning his D1 lynch, and having his scum bus him, is out the door. Should he be scum, and scum are bussing him, he isn't planning it behind the scenes. It would be happening organically. Or he is town fighting for his life.

I mentioned that here.

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Sadly, nobody else seems like they are going to get lynched beyond him and Reels, and I don't have a strong case I can articulate on anybody right now. I'm not going to vote Rels since it seems largely revolved around an associative flip from Hapa. This in turn concerns me since people are willing to lynch him over Hapa (or they prefer him, but keep Hapa open to lynch). This is something that should be discussed post flip, or he should be a lynch candidate based on his actions alone without the need (or the base of) of an associative flip.

Most of the things I seem to disagree with regarding Hapa seem to stem from Cass somewhat.

But still sitting on the lynch and not really considering other options.

[Rels]

Well I think it's obvious there is likely no scum connection between BlackVoid and Rels. Can we lynch tonight?

what a great example of what I've just said. p:
Nope we're not lynching tonight. Why would we when we have 30+ hours still ? Only time when it's beneficial to lynch early is when no one is talking anymore. And I know at least I want more time

[Rels]

Well, currently my reads are at Hap + Cass + someone else, possibly Aubrey as the scumteam. Cassielle replacing in with an odd confidence in a Hap scumflip but wanting to lynch Creature first actually fits in really well as partners. Then Hap and Cass have a scum theater showdown (by the way, I've read on a TeamLiquid forum that Hap likes bussing). Then you tell Hap to back off and he "re-evaluates" Cass. Cass then continues with the confident Hap push but suddenly votes KidAmn as the wagon is building. If she was so confident in Hap-scum, wouldn't she be wary of voting Hap's biggest push? KidAmn and Hap were pretty opposed to each other. Then she switches back to Hap. Then as a Rels wagon builds up, she votes you, calls Hap 100% scum and says that if anyone refuses to vote you, they are stalling. So, yeah my theory is that they are partners and tried to do a bus showdown but that Cass is terrible at making it convincing.

Does Cass have an history of being a thread shaker as scum ? 'cause her attitude is hard to do as scum. Being thread leader that is

[Rels]

Okay I look forward to you putting forth some content tonight then.

Pedit: I want to take your word for it but I don't see why it would be hard as scum because as far as I know Creature apparently comes into his own more d2?

We will see I guess. But I'm gonna dig the ISO's a bit.

You're talking about Creature's ISO there ? Did you actually read it ?

[BlackVoid]

....The thought that I don't care and being laid back in comparison to a number of others is kinda laughable.

Well, I think you'd be more involved as town regardless of how other people have been treating the lynch. That's not an excuse. When I asked why, you even said that you normally are more involved but just THIS game, you are not. That looks like pre-empting me going over your meta and showing that you are very involved at deadline time as town. You haven't given any solid reason why this game is special in the sense of you caring less about the outcome.

[Rels]

VOTE: KidDamn I agree that we can always come back to Hapa if we have too because his lynch even if he is town is informative. But like creature and Cass have kinda pointed out day is winding down we need to pressure and get people talking. Apathy will kill this town. I've played games where apathy kills town.

UNVOTE:

I need to reread and reevaluate. I like BV's effort. Solid town vibes from that read list also Hella a whole lot better than Moogin was. Hapa scumread feels more genuinely thought out then the Meta stuff OoO and Rels were feeding early game.

What happened to your KidDamn scumread between these ?

[Rels]

yeah I really dislike Hawk later posts. More than I thought actually. Lots of it look fake to me

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, Cass has no completed scumgames. She does have a few completed towngames though and I'll pursue them this night phase to see what I think.

[Aubrey]

Cause it's obvious Hapa is the lynch of the day. Nobody else is going to get lynched. He is the scummiest looking and everybody else has to many if's and but's.

To be voting people like Kop Fitz and anybody else is a complete and total waste unless it is between you and him. The lynch is between you and Hapa for the day and that is a fact. I've made my decision.

[Rels]

VOTE: KidDamn I agree that we can always come back to Hapa if we have too because his lynch even if he is town is informative. But like creature and Cass have kinda pointed out day is winding down we need to pressure and get people talking. Apathy will kill this town. I've played games where apathy kills town.

You can come back to Hapa, but you're voting Hapa's biggest scumread to pressure them ?

@Hawk - how did you go from "Hap looks the worst of the three TL players and Rels is my backup," and saying that you are "okay with a Hap lynch, look at Rels if he's scum" to voting Rels? Then you say you are concerned that Kop is pushing Rels and that you could see Hap/Kop or Hap/Rels. Based on all of this, you should be voting Hap so I have no idea how you winded up with a Rels vote.

You distinctly left off a grand portion of my sentiments there including that I feel like of the three Hapa looks the worst but is also the one being pressured most and could be BEING SETUP either for a bus or a ML. Look at how OoO and Rels initially pressure and vote Hapa then Rels backs off from one reentering post by Hapa. At first during the day I dismissed almost that entire section of the read to being meta driven TL stuff but now that you pointed out more concisely that I can see a case for Hapa that isn't meta driven I'm worried that the Meta read from Rels and subsequent back off is either setting up Hapa as a Bus or as a ML.

Like Hapa's wagon has 0 resistance, (asside from me town reading his AtE earlier.) No one is actively saying we shouldnt vote Hapa except for Hapa. That is like giant red warning signals flashing for me and I think since Hapa isn't going anywhere and we can just lynch him tomorrow even if it doesn't go anywhere applying pressure and possibly lynching associatives can put town one step closer to finding all 3 scum.

I mean say we lynch Hapa today no question to Rels motivations for saying no wait stop or Kops motivations to voting Rels instead of Hapa or anything Cass is doing or anything else. If Hapa flips town now where are we. Pushing Rels cause he called Hapa town? Pushing Cass, Creature, KidDamn and Everyone else who said Hapa is scum? oh wait that's everyone (sans kinda Rels and maybe OoO?) Yeah I'm fairly certain Hapa will flip scum but I want more traction laid down by Rels and everyone else who has any motivations for not lynching Hapa. They have to be accountable whether he flips scum (likely) or flips town (unlikely).

Like this isn't us pushing a mislynch. We probably lynch Hapa today.

But we have time. We still have what 2 days to talk? And OoO still hasn't really weighed back in besides a redux back onto Fitz which doesn't sit well with me either.

Pedit: I'll respond to Fitz in a minute. I'm just worried that Rels who seems to be the most active TL member who seems to TR Hapa and I want to know why.

This is so weirdly phrased. First, you're pushing things "for info", but you admit in your POV we're almost always lynching Hapa today; it's weird ?
Second, it looks like a slip. "I'm voting Rels but I'm not pushing for a mislynch because I will get back on Hapa". LOL it really looks like you're saying you KNOW I'm a mislynch and Hapa is not.

Lastly, these two posts seem super logical at first but do 0 thing to push the game forward:

Meta is NAI for me so when people use Meta to create cases I'm usually very suspect of them. The case in particular from OoO and Rels against Hapa was even harder to decipher because I have no experience with any of them and I didn't want to go digging around another site to even get a gleam of another players meta. So I took that with a huge grain of salt. Early on Rels and OoO seemed townish to me. OoO moreso than Rels I guess but it doesn't really matter. So when Hapa responds and is subsequently no longer scumread by OoO or Rels I find it odd and make a mental note but don't pay attention to it. Rest of the day Hapa continues to be a large target by the entire player base so I cant really ignore him but I have a hard time separating the meta case and think you know there has to be a reason Hapa looks town to OoO and Rels right? can't just be meta. Some of what he's done is objectively scummy. His AtE feels like it could come from town to me especially since he's been under a laser microscope all game long.

So when you post a nicer more concise scumread on Hapa that is objectively found I think I can get behind the idea but that dismissal still sticks in my mind and I'm trying to sort it.

So here's where I'm at. I think Hapa is scum. Cass and others have voiced that Hapa can be lynched today. Sweet don't have to worry there I can flip onto Hapa when I need to to help push the lynch through.

So now my question is why is Rels still town reading Hapa or at least not voting them. And why did both Rels and OoO let go of their case on Hapa so readily. What's the motivation. I can see how Rels could be scummy or even scum associated with Hapa.

So heres some scenarios and normally d1 I hate making lots of assumptions but I feel a need to sort this today for some reason.

If OoO's push is town motivated.
1. If Rels is scum.
a. If Hapa is town then Rels is pushing and backing off feels super weird and I'm not sure if they thought they could push a mislynch and the authentically thought that Hapa's response was good enough or not.
b. Hapa is scum then Rels is bussing first to look town and backing off to reinforce incase scumteam can save Hapa.

2. If Rels is town.
a. Hapa is town then Rels back off is warranted and meta read is fine despite looking objectively scummy or null.
b. Hapa is scum and successfully fool'd Rels but not other people.

And those are just if OoO is town. If OoO is scum (unlikely) there's a large subsection of things but the simplest solutions say there is only 1-2 scum in that trio.

My gut won't let me get rid of Hapa's AtE and frustration at the KidDamn counterbalance. But my head says Hapa is scum and Rels may potentially be a partner.

Hopefully that answers your question BV now here's something for Rels.

@Rels you are not voting Hapa. Do you still think Hapa is town? If so why? Please provide some objective based reasons even if it's not many.

I don't see why Rels thinking Hap is some God makes his relent on Hap any less or any more likely to come from scum!Rels if town!Hap.

Like if anything don't you think that If Rels is scum and Hap is town that Rels doesn't care how Hap pushes back and even if he pushes back in not so great way relenting buys him towncred. Like this.

Scum!Rels: Hap isn't playing well he's normally much better! Must be scum!
Town!Hap: "Response that is not entirely objectively towny or could be faked by scum"
Scum!Rels: Welcome to the Game Hap (unvote)

Everyone else goes wait Hap doesn't look town vote Hap. At which point Rels can eventually push back onto Hap. If Hap flips town he can be like see told you so guys. No reason to SR me.

I'd Hap is also scum then Rels can be like oops I guess he fooled me. (this I'd where I think it's unlikely)

So no I don't think it being one sided makes it more or less likely that Hap is scum. Hap might genuinely be fooled by Rels if he is town.

As well if you had a player that you thought had a very good town game and you rolled scum and he maybe just played poorly for a moment you don't think you'd set him up especially if the case is meta driven?

[BlackVoid]

It's also the fact that you (Aubrey) are being very generic about your comments. For instance, you made a paragraph saying that it's silly for people to say Hap is 100% scum and vote Rels. But you never directly call out those people (Cass and Hawk) and grill them on their positions. It's just a vague laid-back agreement with me and then neither your read on Cass nor Hawk has any indication at all of their treatment of the Hap wagon.

[Rels]

Cause it's obvious Hapa is the lynch of the day. Nobody else is going to get lynched. He is the scummiest looking and everybody else has to many if's and but's.

To be voting people like Kop Fitz and anybody else is a complete and total waste unless it is between you and him. The lynch is between you and Hapa for the day and that is a fact. I've made my decision.

Well you don't decide the lynch, and I don't know how is it there but last-minute switch are frequent in TL, especially day 1. And I forgot about Kop actually, either he AFKed for several days or I missed his posts

[Aubrey]

You seriously think someone other than Hapa or yourself will get enough momentum to be a serious candidate for today? I think not.

[Aubrey]

Hence why I am where I am.

[Rels]

I echo the thoughts of Cassielle regarding Rels.

It would be beneficial if we got a flip on either Hapa or rels, but I am feeling rels more than Hapa at the minute. His whole push on Hapa, and that question that I questioned and a few others he just wouldn't reveal what he intended, it just felt that he was setting Hapa up to suspect then back off when Hapa came into the game properly. I get a strong sense of feeling that it's either bussing, or classic distancing if one was to flip later in the game. It looks worse with Rels backing out of it, which also points to that if Hapa flips town, Rels gains town credit because he can actually safely say well I felt that he was town because of his responses and there isn't any backlash towards Rel because of it.

Just it doesn't feel right anymore, my slight town read that I got has gone.

With scum having day talk, it could have easily been orchestrated and co-ordinated without having to work hard at it, if Hapa flips scum, it would point me heavily towards Rel again.

Taking Rel out would answer a lot towards my thoughts towards Hapa, it could make me think twice in regards to him.

How so ? Reading your post it seems like:
- if I flip scum, Hapa is more likely to be scum because "it's either bussing, or classic distancing if one was to flip later in the game"
- if I flip town, ? I guess Hapa is more likely to be scum 'cause one of us is likely scum in your mind ?
So how do me flipping makes you think twice about Hapa ? Since in the two scenarios Hapa is more likely scum ?
And then you're saying "if Hapa flips town, Rels gains town credit because he can actually safely say well I felt that he was town because of his responses" ? But I thought you were saying one of us being scum incriminated the other ? But if Hapa is town I'm also more likely to be scum ?

I don't understand your logic at all. Please expand

[Rels]

You seriously think someone other than Hapa or yourself will get enough momentum to be a serious candidate for today? I think not.

well of course it is possible. If it's not then then this forum is quite bad at mafia

[Rels]

I think scum is in (KidDamn / Hapa) / Kop / Aubrey / Hawk.

[Rels]

I'm also OK with an Hapa lynch atm.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, I do see what you are saying with regards to Hawk but I think the reasons I have to townread him outweigh. Not willing to vote him over Hap. Only other lynch I'd consider from your list is Aubrey.

[BlackVoid]

Hap was online this morning but never checked in. I have some paranoia about being wrong here but on balance, that's the best achievable lynch that's likely to flip scum. Thinking Aubrey is scum regardless of flip. Cass is scum with a Hap scumflip.

[Rels]

K I'm going to sleep. TY BV for making my wake up tomorrow hard ... for real TY for making me play <3 I'm beginning to have a clearer view of the game now

[Rels]

Hap was online this morning but never checked in. I have some paranoia about being wrong here but on balance, that's the best achievable lynch that's likely to flip scum. Thinking Aubrey is scum regardless of flip. Cass is scum with a Hap scumflip.

lol how do you check this ? And yeah Hapa is the best lynch right now. I have my doubts but something as simple as his inability to fight the pressure is pretty scum indicative - his town game is way better than his scum game

[BlackVoid]

Interfering with people's sleep schedules is my favorite part of mafia!

Just click on a player's profile. At the bottom right, you'll see "search user's posts" and "view their topics." The first one gives you a list of the most recent posts a player made regardless of what thread it was in. The second gives you a list of threads that the player has posted in.

[Rels]

Interfering with people's sleep schedules is my favorite part of mafia!

Just click on a player's profile. At the bottom right, you'll see "search user's posts" and "view their topics." The first one gives you a list of the most recent posts a player made regardless of what thread it was in. The second gives you a list of threads that the player has posted in.

But how do you check that he was logged in but didn't post anything ?