Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[oriole]

VOTE: CherryDrPepper

I think it's more playstyle than fishy.

[oriole]

Titus and Pasch:
Do you think that Saki was being serious when he was pushing for a policy lynch?

I'm leaning towards Saki being serious but the guy trolls a whole lot. I can't tell yet whether it's his playstyle or him seriously pushing.

So if he was seriously pushing, why would he stop (unvote in 49) after being voted by Pasch?

[oriole]

He's thinking, oh crap, I'm caught, better unvote. Pushing for a policy lynch this early would be problematic if confirmed town caught him. Of course, I am speculating here.

Do you think policy lynches are scummy, then?

p-edit: I'm pretty sure that L-3 isn't the point if no return, Titus.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Titus

[oriole]

If the wagon's early, not even L-1 is the point of no return.

Also, I really don't like this.

So, do you care to share this history with the rest of the class Varsoon?

[oriole]

I like oriole, but Im having trouble seeing whats wrong with that Titus post.

Post came off as unnecessarily antagonistic from Titus.

[oriole]

He's thinking, oh crap, I'm caught, better unvote. Pushing for a policy lynch this early would be problematic if confirmed town caught him. Of course, I am speculating here.

Do you think policy lynches are scummy, then?

Could you explain?

Am I explaining the question I asked Titus or why I voted him?

[oriole]

I'm asking about the question, because policy lynches are inherently scummy, aren't they? Especially this early?

I think this is up for debate, really.

He's thinking, oh crap, I'm caught, better unvote. Pushing for a policy lynch this early would be problematic if confirmed town caught him. Of course, I am speculating here.

If this is the post in question, how is it antagonistic?

It wasn't that post, it was this one

So why aren't you voting Saki?

I am not certain if he's scum. I am concerned if I jump on, more people might and the bandwagon might reach the point of no return. There are already a few people voting Saki. If I was certain Saki was scum, I'd vote him without caring if he might eventually wind up lynched. However, I'm not. If there wasn't already a train on Saki, I'd vote him to see what happened.

So, do you care to share this history with the rest of the class Varsoon?

[oriole]

If jmo is scum, then he'd have to be white-knighting (defending?) Titus

hard

, then. I'm more inclined to call them both town right now.

I think Varsoon and Glass are being a bit too blatant to be scumbuddies, but I think it's interesting to note how Titus has shown clear discomfort about possible buddying from jmo, but Glass hasn't said anything about Varsoon townreading and defending him so much.

Hey everybody, Bauss here. Ill sign my posts with a 1, since I'm first to the party this round. Rank will be along in a couple days I suspect. Looks like we are past RVS so I'll just start in with the questions...

Saki, wassup with all the posts saying nothing and acting crazy? That your usual game? It's weak. Does it get better?

Who's played with Varsoon before? Seems very conversational, and has a friendly/buddying tone. Wondering if that is normal. Don't like it one bit. "Titus, is that Michael Jackson in your avatar? OMG, love him. Beat it, beat it, beat it, oh find some scum and beat it." Let's keep conversation focused on finding scum please, this isn't match.com.

Titus, I see a bunch of things in your posting/ playstyle that I feel are similar to mine. This will make my reads on you problematic/compromised. I shall defer to Number 2. But to be clear, my gut read is slight town on Titus.

Is there a strategy play in a game setup with an innocent child? Ive never played in one before, so I'm intrigued.

-1-

I'm not really a fan of this post, because he shows some things in it he dislikes or finds scummy, but doesn't vote for them, asking a set-up related question instead.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TunnelVision

[oriole]

Glass- What do you think of Varsoon backing you so strongly? I don't think you've said anything about it.

[oriole]

Leaving my vote with Saki because

worst town posts so far

.

Agree Titus's vote did not seem random.

inb4 anime circles.

Oriole, what do you think of this? The bold and italics are my additions.

It could be a slip, or a way of saying the posts that are the worst for the town (scummiest posts).

[oriole]

@jmo

Glass- What do you think of Varsoon backing you so strongly? I don't think you've said anything about it.

I don't have any objections to it.

Is the townread mutual (Do you townread Varsoon)?

[oriole]

Link did not post properly
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p4976509
Flech's "worst town posts so far" when describing Saki bothers me. You think he's town, thn you vote?

I meant that his posts have so far not been productive for the town, not that he is town and making bad posts.



Glass has voted twice for people recently voted on, bandwagon style.

Leaving my vote with Saki until he defends himself or becomes productive in some way.

Is this the explanation everyone's looking for?

[oriole]

Titus, I'll respond to your question (and provide reasons for my solo TV vote) in about 5-6 hours when I'm free and in front of a computer.

[oriole]

OK, let me answer some questions...

Oriole, where do you stand? Who are your suspects?

I'm not a big fan of the Saki wagon. It seemed like a pretty clear joke to me, and I think people took it a little too seriously. The only strange part of Saki's early posts was 49, or the unvote after the vote from Pasche. This actually leads into my next comment, which is about CherryDrPepper and Saki. Cherry votes for Saki in 195, saying that Saki's not following town meta. In 210, Saki claims that Sakura and Dr.Pepper are following their scum meta from that one game, and Cherry jumps on it here:

I find it ironic you want us to dismiss your first game meta while saying that this is how we play as scum when you've only seen us in your first game.

You were timid then. You also didnt vote jump a lot.

IMO, if CherryDP wants to use meta from Saki's first game (which seems kind of iffy to me, because it's the first game), then Saki should be able to use meta from that same game against CherryDP, as long as he can prove it fits.

I can't help but think that there's a scum on Saki's wagon (even if he's scum). My theory is (although I don't have the experience to know if it's correct), that because Pasche (confirmed town) is on it, scum will be on. I'd think the scum would be between Varsoon and CherryDrPepper, and to this end,
UNVOTE:
VOTE: CherryDrPepper

I'd like to see more from Stubbs.

Everyone who is voting for someone that no one else is voting for, supply some reasons.

I was voting for TV because the three posts from that hydra had been:
1. Discussing a few posts/players they didn't like, but not following up with a vote.
2. Elaborating on a comment about a bias in reads in favor of Titus
3. Placing a vote on Varsoon for his whole meta thing.

I'd like to see a bit more, as most of what I've seen has been centered around Varsoon and Titus, with only passing mentions of a few other players.

[oriole]

Catching up.

[oriole]

Seriously, Saki's done nothing since I voted Saki other than break VLA to bitch about it and put fire on my back.

Really? You voted Saki in 180. Posts 210, 215, 216, 218, 236 all seem to be mainly going after people who aren't you, and Saki's mainly going after Cherry.

Totally ignoring convincing us wasn't the point. Yet, your vote should be on who the scummiest is. I find it odd that you are pushing a lynch on someone who appears to be wanting to draw attention to himself. Varsoon has pulled a lot of "OMG obv scum" moves right off the bat. Why? This is either ridiculously poor scum play or town trying to draw attention. I think I know why Varsoon is doing that. If I'm right, it might backfire... hard, because the play is too obvious.

I don't like your focus on convincing us. Your focus should be on finding the truth, which means availing yourself of the possibility that you are indeed wrong. You also demonstrate a sense of paranoia that indicates not agreeing with you = ignoring you. That's hardly the case.

Why does this exact same argument not apply to Saki? He's been attracting just as much attention as Varsoon.

Then why not include a post that says, haven't read, will post later? A prod dodge here suggests that you're just trying to lurk under the radar undetected. If you're not "in the position to read", then why not say you're on V/LA?

I think you're over-reading this a bit. I don't think prod-dodges are scummy.

I find it odd that you are pushing a lynch on someone who appears to be wanting to draw attention to himself.

Hey guys isn't that what my wagon is all about?

I'm playing like a certain someone. Now that I try to lynch that certain someone people start 'throwing shit' back at me. Especially another certain someone on my wagon.

Hypocrisy is a scum-tell, no? That makes for everyone on my wagon to be slightly scummy yet you stood out because you're pushing me so zealously. (You're okay with lynching me but not Varsoon?)

Besides I already made it clear that my play is focused on reaction-fishing.

I thought the readslist argument was over, yet you bring it up again. I don't like those since they mostly do little else than parroting and seem like a good way for scum to look like they are scumhunting. Yes they do bring much to scumhunting but at this point? With all those days 'till deadline and only 10 pages? No. I don't think so. Hence my scumread of it.

Why would scum have no need to form a readslist? It's a

great

way to save face and also to pursure mislynches. By the way your readslist seemed more forced than genuine.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: CherryDrPepper

The whole Varsoon lynch thing was a fluke to draw you out. I'm almost certain that you're scum now.

You say that large reads-lists are great ways to parrot everyone and look like they're scumhunting, but that's not what Cherry was doing, right? You said later that Cherry wasn't parroting at all.

Thanks for updating your VLA banner, Saki. :3

Solid exchange between Saki and Cherry, too. Shifts them both a little more town for me.

But, yeah, what Cherry said. Please give like a sentence to explain your reads, it'll help gauge them better and give us some trajectory when they shift about.

So what is your current read on Saki, then? Still scum?

[oriole]

OK, so here are Pasche's and Cherry's reads lists side by side.

Pasch's current reads

Vote Me: Only a few posts. But they're decent. Why the unvote on Cherry? It doesn't seem like anything triggered that change. Getting better as the game continues.
Jmo: Lots of comments. Minimal conclusions. Unjustified votes. This kind of style is disjointed and hard to follow. Started out wanting to vote him, but giving him a little benefit of the doubt.
Glass: Basically just laying down steaming piles of bullshit. Like the "I already explained why I voted for Titus" bit. The only post where he addresses his vote on Titus at all is only saying that others are misinterpreting him. No actual reason. And then Jmo for... not jumping to answer him. More votes for Glass!
Stubbs: Two posts, but not afraid to vote. I want more, but I like what I've seen so far.
Cherry (Hydra): Unsure. Just enough to look like contribution, but not super useful. Merits a sharp eye.
TunnelV (Hydra: Definitely not enough. Holding back and wtf is with the awful Varsoon vote?
Titus: Meta read on Titus is that his style is a little weird. But he's got an honest vibe. I don't like his vote on Flench, though. I don't see a slip, and even so, slips are pretty weak reasons for a vote. Town, but wrong.
Saki: Tons of votes, no reasons, actually tries to push a policy lynch on page two... and then turns and runs the other way. String him up!
Dyslexicon: Needs more. First impression okay, but not enough to make a decision yet.
Oriole: Decent. On the fence, but I see scumhunting. Looks okay so far.
Flench: I don't see why anyone is confused about Flench's points. Maybe not the most effective scumhunting, but it's a start.
Varsoon: Lots of questions, not so much with conclusions. If there's anything Varsoon is not shy to do, it's tell you what he thinks. Varsoon goes out on a limb like its his job. so why the hesitation here? It's suspicious.

-Town-
Vote Me
Titus

-Leaning Town-
StubbsKVM
Dyslexicon
Oriole
Flench

-Leaning Scum-
Jmo (Moving up from scum, but not up to leaning town yet)
TunnelVision
Cherry
Varsoon (Not leaning very hard, though)

-Scummy Scum McScummerson-
Glass
Saki

Vote remains on Saki.

Also, being confirmed town is really weird. Not having to prove that I'm not lying is a very different experience.

Sakura Hana here, imma go revisiting everyone's ISOs and check for tendencies to form my reads, post links will be given where applicable. Ordered from Towniest to Scummiest

Paschendale

:

Town

, obvious scum, let's lynch him.... just kidding, but he's conf town, need i say more?

Titus

:

Town

, Best gameplay so far, asking questions, pressuring people, finding issues with people's posts, I don't see me voting him ever unless he does something incredibly scummy.

jmo

:

Town

, Also pretty good scumhunting tho in a more aggresive manner, I like his style a lot, Also I don't see me voting this guy ever unless he does something incredibly scummy.

oriole

:

Leaning Town

, Questioning players and good scumhunting, i particularly like his 57 and his 62, but I dislike his vote on Tunnelvision on 133, why did that make you think someone just entering the game would need to vote another player, specially a hydra that hasn't talked with his other head too like i refrained myself from doing early on with Saki until Saki's unvote?.

Varsoon

:

Null

, Dunno really what to think of his posts, doesn't seem to spend much time scumhunting rather answering questions, and then gives a reads with zero nulls/neutrals and just puts people as town or scum, don't see how he has that strong of a townread on all those Town reads and the same could be said about his scum reads, tho I agree with the read on Flench.

Dyslexicon

:

Null

, only 3 posts tho with quite some content, Still don't know what he finds suspicious in me being inactive over the weekend which seems like a weak to reasoning to lay suspicion on someone.

Tunnelvision

:

Null

, Someone without much to go on...

Vote Me

:

Null

, Haven't seen much and the few i've seen isn't enough to consolidate a read on him.

Stubbs

:

Null

, This guy exists?!

Glass

:

Leaning Scum

, This guy is all over the place, his Titus vote looks pretty bad, very short replies, also i haven't seen some reads from him either...

Flench

:

Leaning Scum

, His scumslip even if he explained it, if anyone could explain a scumslip then that'd be too easy wouldn't it? he's been fencesitting on the Saki's vote all game, and been defending his vote on Saki who's on V/LA to begin with, do you plan on doing anything else other than just staying there pointing fingers at Saki or are you gonna try to find the other scum...

Saki

:

Scum

, Most of the read is because of my partner mentioning that he isn't playing to his town meta, the other part is all his jumpyness with votes and unvoting when being called out on it. As if "caught"

Now i'm done catching up, thanks for the patience.

The reads lists seem rather similar to me though, I don't see the whole "every one of your reads is different" thing.

[oriole]

^Incorrect math, chance is 30.2%. There's only 7 random numbers generated.

Also, who fake-claims roleblocker?

[oriole]

Why would you choose the single most unlikely possibility as a fakeclaim?

[oriole]

If there's a full roleblocker, Saki's claim is pretty much a fakeclaim, but if there's a 1-shot roleblocker, Saki's pretty much confirmed.

[oriole]

Well, BBB is pretty improbable (a chance of .01%).

The setup would be BBBM(Pasche is IC)TTT, then.

I mean, it's not like Saki would be confscum or anything, but...

[oriole]

I was basing the whole rarity thing off of just the odds rolling one of each. Looking a bit further, I think Mason might actually be rarest (because it requires two Ms). Still think it's an actual claim, though.

@Saki, Can you prove anyone was lurking through the L-1? It was pretty short.

[oriole]

I don't suppose either of you is one-shot?

[oriole]

I've been pretty clear that I've always thought Varsoon as town. So yeah, I trust my town read over my scum read.

Don't you think you're exaggerating a bit here?

[oriole]

Read the above. Also look at the discussion with Saki regarding the differences in their behavior. I refused to say that Varsoon was scum, because I perceived a plan in his actions. If it wasn't clear that I was implying I saw Varsoon as town, I need to work on my implying skills.

@Varsoon, I would lynch you if Saki came back town. I find the odds astronomical that there are two roleblockers.

I was actually poking at the "always" part of it, because you made your suspicions of Varsoon rather clear early in the game.

To be honest, I thought that the post you linked to was rather blatant.

Anyways, I'm off for the night.

[oriole]

This game will make me develop insomnia.

If Saki is town I don't know what a scum!Varsoon would be doing also claiming full roleblocker. Then again, he's already pretty much claimed scum Roleblocker in this thread, so...?

[oriole]

I believe you are town, but I'm not 100 percent certain. It's rather ingenious if there are no roleblockers. I'll speculate about every plausible possibility until I have eliminated it.

How would this even work?

[oriole]

I'm sneaking in a quick post here, but I'm busy for another hour or so...

My impression so far is that Saki's claim is real, Varsoon is fake-claiming town because ~reasons~, and while Titus is saying some things I disagree with that doesn't make him scum.

UNVOTE:
My vote on Cherry's a bit outdated.

[oriole]

I'm sneaking in a quick post here, but I'm busy for another hour or so...

My impression so far is that Saki's claim is real, Varsoon is fake-claiming town because ~reasons~, and while Titus is saying some things I disagree with that doesn't make him scum.

UNVOTE:
My vote on Cherry's a bit outdated.

Oriole, that doesn't make much sense. Why wouldn't Varsoon just withdraw his claim so we wouldn't inadvertently lynch Saki?

Why isn't Varsoon pushing Saki harder then? Also, we haven't been close to lynching Saki since he claimed.

(back to work I go...)

[oriole]

@Mod:

I unvoted in 519.

[oriole]

Varsoon could have a whacked out risk reward analysis but I don't think so.

Also, yeah Varsoon pretty much said he was paranoid that both you and Saki were town in 496. So I don't see you don't "get that vibe" from him.

A one shot roleblocker does not verify both of your claims as true. However, a one shot roleblocker is the only way both of you are town roleblockers.

@Stubbs, extremely outdated.

False. BBB= 2 full town roleblockers.

[oriole]

Why isn't Varsoon pushing Saki harder then? Also, we haven't been close to lynching Saki since he claimed.

What if they are both scum? Lynching either one lands the other one a spot as "confirmed town roleblocker." Ballsy, but possible. The personality of both seems either silly enough or subtly slick enough to give it a shot.

Sure it's possible, but it'd look kind of strange a bit later when one of them mysteriously refused to die, I guess.

[oriole]

Mod: How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop?

Off to go attempt to read way too far into a non sequitor~

[oriole]

@CherryDrPepper I understand that fear. A tracker would be useful here but it's impossible. There's a greater chance of both Varsoon and Saki being scum than neither of them.

Yeah, I still don't buy this argument.

[oriole]

@CherryDrPepper I understand that fear. A tracker would be useful here but it's impossible. There's a greater chance of both Varsoon and Saki being scum than neither of them.

Yeah, I still don't buy this argument.

would you buy scumTitus--scumVarsoon

Possible but unlikely?

I think most of the scum are in our relative lurker pool, really (outside of maybe one in you and Varsoon?)

[oriole]

@Saki: Quickhammering someone at L-1 is null.
I don't need to pressure someone to read them. The interactions my vote-swap and your posts got out of Titus was enough for me to put him in the town pool.

Not if I claim town PR and I flip town PR.

Really? It painted him as scummier for me.

@Oriole
Don't you think Titus defends Varsoon too much for both of them to be scum?

I thought that's what I was saying, maybe I misunderstood you.

[oriole]

town*

There's no way both of them are town with that much defending

sorry typo

Eh, I think I'd disagree, especially because it's not so much defending each other as attacking you.

[oriole]

It might appear from his POV to be buddying and ganging up on him, though.

[oriole]

Coming up- an ISO dive on interactions between Titus and Varsoon. Made a bit more complicated when Varsoon came up 119 times in Titus's ISO.

[oriole]

The whole supposed Varsoon/Titus buddying bothered me, so I pulled this, Saki.

Spoiler: Varsoon, on Titus

Anyway, as far as the current game-state goes, it feels like the tension between Saki, Titus, and Cherry is scum-involved. I'm not used to seeing town vs town crossvote so early, so I'm pretty convinced there's a bad apple there. The only problem is that I can't deduce much with the info given. I'm willing to say that Titus is the scum, though. He's been making really careful plays and working hard to look town, but it feels a bit artificial--like he's trying to earn towncred way too early with the questions posed so far. /shrug. Glass is soundly town so far and Cherry is iffy for me. Was reading the slot as town but seems scummier as of recent.

Titus - Town. (Engages with different players, isn't engaged in distracting meta-malarky, is to-the-point and pro-town about info gathering)

@Titus: You might be playing too town for me not to be paranoid of you.

Titus is going to get out of this one because he's town, Saki. It'd be nice if you could build a case on him, rather than a spat.

Yeah, he's defending me because he's convinced I'm town. I can soft-confirm this because I'm convinced he's town.

Would you be happy with a titus-mislynch, Saki?

Well, shit, if Titus is scum, why is there only one vote on

him

P:EDIT: her?

Vote: Titus

(Sorry if I confuse genders on people. It's nothing personal, yo.)

Titus is town.

Unvote

I'll wait until there's more than 4 people posting before I get back to it. I still think Saki's likely scum, but not as much as I did earlier in the day.

The interactions my vote-swap and your posts got out of Titus was enough for me to put him in the town pool.

Unvote

I need time to look at the thread more. Titus is really suspect, but I think he's town. Saki's a believable town who I think is scum. Dunno what to go with.

@Dys: Feels like Saki's more newbtown playing defensive then scum manipulating people. Feels like Titus might be manipulating me. Sitting back to see what they have to say.
334 is me entertaining a town-Saki.

Spoiler: Titus, on Varsoon

Varsoon worries me for another reason, because he's sent the group looking for meta (not my strong point, because I value it so little). If his comments are right about his role being obvious to anyone who has played with him extensively, then perhaps maybe someone who plays with Vasson extensively can just answer the question without looking through the meta?

He tells us there's confirmation of his role in meta. Then he applauds me for not using meta. Then, he claims the whole thing is a way of causing trouble for relying on meta. That doesn't make sense at all, especially within 10 posts of each other.

I am agreeing with all the suspicion towards Varsoon right now. However, I think there's a possibility Varsoon is trying to draw a bit of scum attention to himself deliberately. I'd explain why, but that would totally ruin what he's trying to do. The hints are there suggesting why Varsoon is doing this. If only town figures this out, the better we are though. Otherwise, we can be near certain that Varsoon will die tonight.

I also do not like a meta based argument, but I always hear everything out. What is Saki's town meta and why is this different?

I do think Varsoon should have his eye kept on in case I am wrong but I think he's town.

Varsoon has pulled a lot of "OMG obv scum" moves right off the bat. Why? This is either ridiculously poor scum play or town trying to draw attention. I think I know why Varsoon is doing that. If I'm right, it might backfire... hard, because the play is too obvious.

@Oriole, The difference between Varsoon is Varsoon is seeking the attention. Saki is not. Varsoon has been deliberate in his actions and the behaviors we see as scummy. Saki's behaviors feel more like slips and forcing scum reads. There's a difference between actively drawing attention and suspicion onto yourself and scum play. Varsoon's seems to be the former. Saki's appears to be the latter.

I've been pretty clear that I've always thought Varsoon as town. So yeah, I trust my town read over my scum read.

I never explicitly said Varsoon was town. I kinda hint in this post that I suspected that Varsoon was a PR.

Titus: I got a question for you, you say that Varsoon has been acting scummy in order to attract scum attention towards him for being a PR, but why aren't you saying the same thing about Saki?

P-Edit: Varsoon: If you must, you should breadcrumb it somehow, not say it openly. I also agree that is a good idea to make it public.

Apparently, this has not been clear the other times I have answered this. Saki's scummy behavior has always been a response to pressure and doesn't seem to be part of an overarching plan. Saki seemed to be tunnelling you when you were pressuring Saki hard. Now that I am, I am scum. Varsoon has questioned and legitimately scum hunted. He's asking intelligent questions designed to get answers that will benefit town in the long run. Saki's posts seem to be more defensive and all about laying the groundwork that he's town rather than scum hunting. Saki's planting seeds that appear to be defensive. For instance, the claim that the Varsoon vote was just to look for your reaction. Varsoon's seem to be more systemic and planned out such as the meta inconsistencies when no one was really pressuring him, answering town points questions, etc.

Which claim do your head(s) believe is more genuine? Why? Do you believe any possibility that both are town or both are scum?

Yeah, he's defending me because he's convinced I'm town. I can soft-confirm this because I'm convinced he's town.

Would you be happy with a titus-mislynch, Saki?

I'm saying that's buddying, clearly.

He's scum, dammit. Don't threaten me.

Wow. The five year old defense. Works wonders. Nothing in that post looked threatening at all.

I'm pretty certain Varsoon is town and your behavior makes no sense at all.

I always considered that Varsoon acting scummy on the surface was his plan to survive the night as a PR. What I'm perceiving from him is wholly inconsistent with Vanilla Townie play.

I agree and have been saying everything you've been saying here, Dys. There's about a 1-3% chance that there are three Bs in the setup (required for two full roleblockers). I happen to think it's more likely Saki is scum rather than Varsoon due to the behavior, yet I'm far from certain on it.

The odd behavior from jmo makes me think he's Saki's scum partner. I'm not sure where that leaves Flench though because I like him for being scum too.

Varsoon, not manipulating you. In fact, I don't 100% trust you although it's much more likely you are town than Saki. What do you feel I am manipulating you about?

I'd say let's split the difference and look at some other suspects but carefully watch Varsoon and Saki's analysis. If either of them act scummy in their readings (separate from the claims) we should lynch them.

Tunnel, your large post before I said that showed me that you had been reading the entire thread and coming to the same conclusions as me independently regarding Varsoon's behavior and the possible situation there. The odds of someone scummy magically comprehending the same posts as I did for the same reasons but articulating that in their own words that didn't indicate a sheep. That's pretty town to me.

I'd like you to elaborate more on the possible scumVarsoon.

@Saki, I've always said that I felt Varsoon had a plan with his scuminess. If you can see/show there's no logical plan behind Varsoon's behavior, I'd be totally fine with lynching Varsoon. I just find you to be the scummier of the two. I'm not going to just ignore everything you say due to my opinion that you're scummy because I could indeed be wrong.

Now, I could make a comment after each of the posts hidden behind a spoiler wall, but approximately nobody will read that, so I'll just present what I found.

Varsoon's first stated read says that Titus may be scum, but pretty quickly this shifts to a townread, maintained through 476. In 480, Varsoon votes Titus, but calls Titus town again in an unvote in 513. There's some creeping paranoia that's appeared recently, (604 and 609), and this paranoia was actually sort of foreshadowed in 280.

Titus maintains early that Varsoon should be kept an eye on, mostly over some conflicting posts over meta explained away as a joke of sorts by Varsoon. She then continuously drops heavy hints that she thinks Varsoon is a town power role long before Varsoon claims (see 198, 241, and 262). She heavily defends Varsoon, until recently (noticing a trend?) where she starts to entertain ideas and ask others to elaborate on scum!Varsoon ideas, with posts such as 617 and 654.

Looking through the interactions, some conclusions...
a) I don't think they're scum together, seeing as how they've turned on each other a bit recently.
b) Titus was rather blatant on hinting that she thought Varsoon was a PR, but then again Varsoon was pretty blatant at hinting he was a PR.
c) I would pick Titus over Varsoon for scum atm. I think her posts come closer to buddying then Varsoon's, and I'm not a fan of the all of a sudden "of course, I could be wrong let's keep an eye on Varsoon" turn by Titus.

[oriole]

@Oriole: I'm hesitant to support a Titus/Saki lynch right now, since I'm growing more and more convinced that this is a townvtown conflict. Now, to confirm we're both Roleblockers, we could let Saki and I live to the night and then we could target each other. Of course, this doesn't account for jailers/other similar roles.

Would this work?

[oriole]

I think we should be lynching outside of Varsoon and Saki today. Scum will have to kill them so they don't block a kill and get a guilty that way. If they try and play WIFOM with letting one of them hang around a couple nights so we'll lynch them, all the more chances to block a kill.

@Varsoon I'd rather both of you just aimed to block kills, though.

[oriole]

Records

Found here, I believe.

I'll get to your question in a sec.

[oriole]

I think we should be lynching outside of Varsoon and Saki today.

Scum will have to kill them so they don't block a kill and get a guilty that way. If they try and play WIFOM with letting one of them hang around a couple nights so we'll lynch them, all the more chances to block a kill.

@Varsoon I'd rather both of you just aimed to block kills, though.

What do you think of people that don't agree?

Nothing in particular, I guess? I mean, I'd really rather not lynch town PRs, but I see where people (Titus, Dys) are coming from with the 99% thing. The problem I have with it is that if you're both actually roleblockers we've spent 2 days stringing up power roles because math said so.

[oriole]

Wait... how didn't i notice this earlier

@Flench: Get an avatar. Also, it's still pretty RVS, so

my top scum-pick would only be myself

? I don't know, man.

Why would you have yourself as your top scum-pick? i'd understand you having yourself as your only town read (lol at reading yourself) but why are you calling yourself scum?

This post seems to me like an attempt to get suspicion on an easy mislynch target VOTE: Cherry
Also if you could sign your posts, that would be great.

Town Varsoon is town.

Who's played with Varsoon before? Seems very conversational, and has a friendly/buddying tone. Wondering if that is normal. Don't like it one bit. "Titus, is that Michael Jackson in your avatar? OMG, love him. Beat it, beat it, beat it, oh find some scum and beat it." Let's keep conversation focused on finding scum please, this isn't match.com.
-1-

Your description of Varsoon is definitely not town Varsoon. Could you detail what you think about his posts lead you to believe what you believe?

UNVOTE:

I'll be V/LA (just from now until tomorrow), but I will say that I am probably never voting Varsoon ever.

Can you explain this,provide input on claiming situation, etc?
VOTE: Vote Me

[oriole]

I'm aware...

Just going through ISOs. I really think that there are a few scum in our pile of lurkers, and that stood out to me.

[oriole]

Onto the second point. I've been actively playing a buddying/VI role hoping that someone would try to build a case on me due to those approaches. Buddying isn't scummy by nature--if anything, town wants some solidarity as well. In fact, a strong town-bloc is hard for scum to beat. Furthermore, scum-buddying backfires quite hard when scum is lynched. Ergo, I don't find buddying to be scummy, but I am aware that others might try to exploit it as so. There's been several times in the game that I've openly applauded town efforts from other players and done things to earn 'town points'. To players who play on the second-level-of-perception, this is scummy, since they see scum as people trying to curry town favor. However, I'm playing on a third-level, which is Town seeming scummy to second-level players in an attempt to find scum who are second-level who would exploit that.

Large problem with this. Even if your play is "on a higher level" than TV's (and

damn,

is that an arrogant statement), how do you differentiate second-level scum from second-level town, considering you said that all players who play on this second level of perception would find it scummy?

[oriole]

@Varsoon: You have Titus and Jmo as your highest scum candidates, if I'm reading 821 correctly. What do you make of their interactions (particularly, jmo defending Titus calling him newbtown earlier, and Titus indicating discomfort at it)?

[oriole]

I'm looking forward to your wall Saki. That disagrees with my interpretation of the lurkers. I wouldn't even consider TunnelVision a lurker.

What is your interpretation of the lurkers?

[oriole]

I don't see where Stubbs promised content; where is that?

[oriole]

@Oriole: How do you feel about Tunnel's case on me, about Pasche's dismantling of the case, and about my play until this point?
@Everyone: How should we encourage/get the lurkers/inactive players to be more active?

I'll get to TunnelVision's case in a bit; I'm planning a rather large post that goes through the arguments. It'll be good to go shortly.

About your play in general: The main thing that bothered me about it was in 182 you described your play as a "crummy Varsoon tactic". However, until recently, I hadn't see you show any results from this tactic. Now, you say you've caught TV with it, so... I'm not a big fan overall, but if it works for you, that's fine.

The lurker question I don't feel has a straightforward answer. I mean, the thread's been better about not vomiting pages to read, and I do think the quality of posts has improved as a result. If they don't feel compelled to post now, votes and pressure are probably the next steps.

[oriole]

Spoiler: The Varsoon case and Counters

VOTE: Varsoon

1) Contradicting yourself multiple times (you're a walking talking paradox)

Ah, hell, why not. The thread is moving at a snail's pace anyway.

1) Already admitting to VI play from the onset of the game. Had I not counter-claimed, I would be an unlikely NK target. Now my VI play is solely for WIFOM.

What a shame that Tunnel neglected to provide any examples.

I agree with Pasche here. If Varsoon contradicted himself "multiple times", there should be examples available.

2) Playing like you don't know about the game setup (comment about jailer role) but you counter claimed Saki's RB claim. Lie to me and tell me you didn't check the game setup before you counter claimed?

2) I honestly do not know how this setup works. I know it's semi-open, which I think means there's only certain setups possible. My counter-claim was made on the basis that I've never seen a 13-player game with two of the same role in Town.

Looking at the set-up would have indicated that there

is

a possibility of 2 town roleblockers. Wouldn't a counterclaim of Saki indicate he didn't know that?

3) Subtly trying to throw me off you by mis-representing in 660

3) Or I just interpreted you wrong. /shrug. From what I read, you wanted me to explain my gambit, but explaining my gambit loops back to me being more succeptable to NKs and my earlier play being for naught. See 1. Also, you coming into the thread hot and willing to throw fire on people's backs rather than provide analysis of the entire game/playerbase was what I was commenting on in my first line.

I guess the line in question was the "exploit a lynch" line. It was certainly accusatory, but Varsoon is correct in saying the prior posts had mostly (solely?) pressured Varsoon and Saki.

4) I feel pretty confident that Saki is town

4) Surprise, so do I. Please read the thread. If Saki's town, it doesn't make me scum, either. This is a relational-tell based on a read that you're working on, and it's not good evidence in any game.

I'm not sure where TV's Saki=town read comes from here, because earlier he said he was entertaining the notion both of you were scum and was pressuring Saki pretty hard, (with an accusation of Glass thrown in).

5) Dominating the conversation (lots of posts), I don't see any real scum hunting. You've got a back door open to exit every argument that you seem to talk yourself into/out of.

5) I always have a high post count/lots of noise. If you think that I haven't done anything to hunt scum, then I guess my efforts and pressure are too subtle (not really) for you to pick up? As for having a means out of things, that's another quip on my VI/obvscum play. If you notice, I add one of these after each small bit of pressure I make. A sort of 'but maybe not' addendum.

I don't like the handwaving of this as "VI/obvscum' play", actually. It's an excuse. I'm not even sure VIs are that wishy-washy (scum might be, though).

6) Buddying, non game related content, conversational "let's be pals" tone.

6) Already talked about buddying being null and a part of my play earlier. Non-game content is null as well. This point feels like it's grasping for straws. If you think people can't be conversational and pally with folks they've been in games with before, I'd be terrified to see you in a veteran game like Xenoblade.

This is a poor point; the buddying conversational tone is a playstyle thing rather than an alignment tell.

7) Your attention seeking response to the suggestion of a Mason role, does not compute. Even if I believe your explanation 100%, I think you were setting yourself up for a role claim very early in the day phase. Action + town motivation don't match here.

7) I felt pressured into a weird place when Titus not-so-subtly implied that I was a Mason with Vote-me. I should have just ignored him, but, really, it's whatever. Yeah, that was a shitty play on my part.

I feel like this point has been ceded to TunnelVision instead of rebutted. I'd have to agree, though.

8) Counter claiming against Saki should've been a fire and brimstone show. You were weak and left yourself a back door to escape, but you stated that you were claiming RB because somebody else claimed your role. Your action + town motivation don't match here.

8) My town motivation for CC'ing RB is because I wasn't aware the setup could have two RBs in it for town. Furthermore, I [AM IN A GAME I CANT TALK ABOUT SO I WONT] have seen VTs claim PRs on D1, which is why I pulled back even harder. My current standing is that Saki is either a VT or is actually a town RB like I am.

That you didn't think that there could be 2 town RB should have made it "fire and brimstone", though, because then Saki would be 100% scum. I can see pulling back when you found out it is possible.

9)

PYSCHOBABBLE ALERT

9) Already refuted this, and my points on 1 and 2 should further do so.

I think I covered this when I talked about how I feel about Varsoon's overall play.

10) You've played enough mafia, you're not a noob, so you lose the noob defense for the shenanigans.

10) If you're aware of my history on this site, you'd know that I pull more shenanigans than any noob. Try again.

I don't remember Varsoon trying to use the noob defence.

11) You've been so cognizant of your meta, mentioning the difference between this and that, but refuting the usefulness of meta. Here's what really threw me... you set yourself up to play like your Village Idiot town game as mafia:

Nacho once said my smoking-gun scum meta is playing a really safe and hardcore, methodical town while, as town, I play Village Idiot.

It gives you the ability to play like a town rube, and write it off as your typical town game, while masking your scumball role. (preview edit, lulz)

11) The thing that really threw you is another hint I dropped for people around third level. I openly say that being nuts is my town-meta. I then play nuts. People on the second level would understand this is my town meta, but third-level thinking would say that this is an artificial approach. If I was aware of my zany, absurd play being my town-meta, why, as scum, would I preface it with the post about Nacho's analysis of my meta? So that third-level scum players trying to exploit it would be caught by that snare, but, more than that, to laugh forever at people who rely on meta to make cases.

Both this point and it's rebuttal are pure WIFOM. Ew.

12) You're trying to follow somebody else into hanging Saki. You did it with me in 614. You did it with somebody else when they put pressure on Saki. I'll dig it out.

12) No, not really. Saki is hard-town to me right now, with very little chance of changing. I won't be putting a vote on Saki for the rest of this game. Again, good try.

That's nice and all Varsoon, but it doesn't address the accusation made. It doesn't matter what your current read of Saki is, because that's not where the point takes place (if this makes any sense).

13) You did some fear-mongering about mislynching a town power role.

13) It's not nearly fear-mongering as much as it is being cautious. If Saki is really TRB, then that makes us both TRB, which is a terrible thing for us both to be since we've claimed it. Shitty second level players will lynch one, then the other, which would cost two TRBs. If Saki is VT, a similar scenario can unfold, but my lynch is less likely. Regardless, Saki isn't the lynch for today.

I don't think this point is specific enough; it doesn't point out where the fear-mongering was or the subject (was it lynching Varsoon, or lynching between Varsoon and Saki?)

Long story short, I don't think TunnelVision's case is particularly compelling, points 1 and 13 need examples from TV, and really only 5 and 12 I don't like Varsoon's response to.

[oriole]

Titus - How many roleblockers do you believe we have? Your 99% argument includes the possibility that there are zero roleblockers.

[oriole]

The Case for Lynching Varsoon

1. The lynch should be between Varsoon and Saki because there is about a 1% chance of them both being town. If they both were town, I should be getting a lot more encouragement on this point. Given there is NO certainty in mafia, this is as close as we are going to get that one of the two is indeed scum. Furthermore, a scum player would know they'd be lynched if the other one dies.

Enough people aren't pushing the lynch as between Varsoon and Saki? There's an L-3 wagon on Varsoon.

[oriole]

@Paschendale, would you like me to put up my case on Varsoon with my lurker wall?

Why did you ask Paschendale this?

[oriole]

I asked Paschendale that because I wanted to confirm that I could indeed go after Varsoon 100% without disrupting any plans he had for the town or

if the wall would be too long for him to manage

. I wasn't going to have my wall of new information up rapidly, so I tried to take the most economical apprach.

Disrupting any plans he had for the town? Can you elaborate on that?

[oriole]

Titus- This is pretty much where I am right now.

At the moment, though, I believe both of them. Or rather, I don't disbelieve either enough to vote for [Saki or Varsoon].

I'd much rather let the night actions sort it out.

[oriole]

... Or, you can use a binomial distribution calculator. It's much easier.

That same "99% chance" will be there tomorrow. Might as well have some night actions to help.

I don't want this day to turn into a Varsoon v. Saki 1v1, and it shouldn't.

[oriole]

If a cop had a guilty on someone and the other player cced cop, would we really put off the lynch? Of course nt. But this is as close as we get to day 1 confirmed scum.

Situations aren't comparable, though. Neither of the roleblockers has claimed to block the other (and you'd have to be pretty stupid to).

[oriole]

@Titus - Supposing the following propositions, please rate the plausibility.

1) Saki and Varsoon are both town.

2) Scum!Saki was counter-claimed by Town!Varsoon.

3) Town!Saki was counter-claimed by Scum!Varsoon.

4) Saki and Varsoon are both scum.

[oriole]

OK. So what scum motive is behind scum-Varsoon counterclaiming Saki, then? (I'd like TV to answer this too).

(This actually addresses the p-edit a bit too)

[oriole]

Writing it up as we speak.

[oriole]

Yeah, I'm getting to it, it's just a longer post and requires more time.

The Case for Lynching Varsoon

1. The lynch should be between Varsoon and Saki because there is about a 1% chance of them both being town. If they both were town, I should be getting a lot more encouragement on this point. Given there is NO certainty in mafia, this is as close as we are going to get that one of the two is indeed scum.

Furthermore, a scum player would know they'd be lynched if the other one dies.

See, this is an issue I have. Why would Varsoon counter-claim, knowing that even if he got Saki lynched (which assumes that was his aim), he'd be lynched next? The generally accepted rate for bussing or gambits like this is usually 2 mis-lynches, not one.

Varsoon as scum -

Meta Contradictions - Varsoon contradicts or at least confuses the issues here regarding meta in posts . In 127 he says anyone reading his meta can know what alignment

and role

he is. I looked through Varsoon's meta. I haven't found a roleblocker yet. In his next serious post (132), he labels me town for not being concerned about the meta. Post 135 he gives a "firm middle finger" to anyone who uses meta to read him. Those posts take place within 24 hours of each other. Posts 127 and 132 are within two hours of each other.

No, post 127

was

the firm middle finger to people who use meta by sending them searching for something useless, IIRC.

His interactions with Saki - On post 180, Varsoon votes Saki as a pressure for a player on VLA. He maintains his vote there the entire time and throughout the CC process, by that point Saki is posting and contributing. I would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate. As we all know, Varsoon didn't CC Saki with fire and brimstone. First he asked if it would be a bad time to CC. Really, who gives a crap if it's a bad time. Having all the information out there is helpful. He seems to go back and forth. Before Saki's claim, Varsoon was convinced Saki was scum. In 280, he really pushes a Saki lynch hard. After Saki's claim, Varsoon leans Saki's scum. Later on, he pushes the line that Saki might be town along with him (despite the one percent probability of that), unless Varsoon is a vanilla townie. Varsoon refuses to claim that. Later, Varsoon is convinced Saki is town and a roleblocker and that he is too. At some point, he should be angry or doubt Saki's town status. Yet, with each passing day Varsoon becomes more convinced.

He says that he won't put a vote on Saki ever?

That doesn't make sense. Town should not be closing off avenues for voting someone unless they are the innocent child, dead or in most cases, cleared by a confirmed cop. The refusal to consider Saki as scum looks more like an exit strategy in case Saki flips town or gets killed at night.

Your argument is directly contradictory in that you say that you would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate and then lambast Varsoon for going back and forth on Saki. The bolded I've already seen said by Vote Me. You also say that town shouldn't close off avenues, but that's exactly what you're recommending Varsoon do by not entertaining the chance that Saki is a town roleblocker.

Suddenly shifting read on me - Varsoon has gone back and forth on my town/scum status repeatedly on Day 1. He opens with me as town, and later says that he starts with players as scum until he can confirm them as town. Post 180, Varsoon says I'm right for not trusting him. 280, Varsoon uses the "too town" argument for what? Saying he needs to be paranoid? He's still convinced I'm town until post 580. Around that point, is when I start to look at the numbers and know that either Varsoon or Saki is likely lying. Post 604 is a load of contradictions I'm a suspect who is town and Saki is a believable town who is scum. That sounds like someone obfuscating any legitimate form of a read. Post 692, Varsoon is upset with Cherry for fueling what he's arguing as a three way town fight. Then, in 715 he says he sees the arguments that I'm supposedly scum. Towards the end of the day, he's second guessing the Titus wagon. It seems like Varsoon is going whichever way the wind blows.

Funny, because that could also apply to your read on Varsoon.

Total Lack of Anger or Passion - Varsoon was easy going with his claim, he's easy going with votes placed on him, he's emotionally distant while buddying. He's not getting upset with confirmed town players when he feels they are doing something not smart.

How do you measure emotional distance? This could easily be more of a playstyle thing.

Not Reading the Setup - I don't buy anyone not reading the setup. It's one thing to miscomprehend but I don't think anyone deliberately ignores the setup.

Don't you think that scum would be extra sure to check the set-up?

jmo - Varsoon is pushing a jmo lynch hard. He's been pushing it since the start of the game due to a suspicious vote jmo made at the start. Given jmo's lurkiness, Varsoon is said almost all of us think he's scum but yet only one votes him. True, but Varsoon didn't exactly change over his vote. I'm not as sure on jmo being scum as I am with Varsoon being scum, so I'm not voting jmo. I'm pretty sure most of us feel the same way. The jmo thing just seems to be going back to a target of convenience and then baiting us by saying we all agree.

I think Varsoon's vote is on jmo.

Village Idiot (VI) play - This seems to be an almost universal excuse. Oh I'm just playing the village idiot, don't mind me.

Maybe.

Second/Third/Fourth Level Play - This seems to be a deflection. I'm a village idiot pretending to be something pretending to be something else pretending to be a roleblocker? I don't get this at all. It's not clear and it looks to be a deflection/obfuscation mechanism along the lines of village idiot.

I dunno, I mean he hinted that he was using this as a tactic in 182, so I'm not so sure if it's a deflection.

[oriole]

OK. So what scum motive is behind scum-Varsoon counterclaiming Saki, then? (I'd like TV to answer this too).

(This actually addresses the p-edit a bit too)

Inherent risks of the Saki claim situation:
D1, a town PR claims a role. That person doesn't get lynched. They are borderline confirmed town. They may be covered by a doctor, able to use their power nightly (in this case a roleblock.) If said player targets well, you make it hard for the mafia to thin the population. Could also start the foundation of a town bloc.

Some obvious potential rewards of a false counter claim:
Mafia can attempt any of the following (and some combinations of multiples):
1) Lynch Saki D1, and hang a town PR instead of NK. Win.
2) Let both claimed folks live for the day, mislynch some other townie.
3) Publicly coordinate some of the night moves, learn more about game setup by night info reveals from Saki. (if Saki lives.)
4) Prove roleblocker status (but not alignment), gain town cred for Varsoon

There are other options, but they revolve around additional game setup speculation.

1) Leads to scum lynch the next day, though. I'm not sure if it'd be worth the risk for them.
2) Yeah, but that assumes there's going to be a mislynch. It also allows a town PR to live, so I assume this one is meant to be coupled with another one.
3) Fixed by not coordinating publicly, I guess. I don't see what kind of game info they'd get from Saki they didn't already have (unless Saki blocks a serial killer?)
4) I'll assume this goes with 2. How would they prove the roleblocker status?

[oriole]

The reason I don't exactly disagree with a lot of the theme is that I'd rather lynch him then Saki, I'd just rather it be tomorrow.

You were backing Varsoon very heavily for a while before shifting on him (due to the numbers thing, then?). That's what I was referring to.

[oriole]

^Getting to this.

[oriole]

Sure, why not...

Most likely to be town (non-Pasche division): Flench. Many of the things that people were attacking him over (supposed slip, wanting to get Pasche's approval) don't read like scum to me; the supposed slip was probably a mis-interpretation and that kind of paranoia about scum leading discussion actually seems more likely to come from town to me. I like the effort that he's shown putting into this game lately. Also, this exchange just says town to me...

Varsoon who is your top mafia pick atm?

Varsoon who is your top mafia pick atm?

He just asked that...

Edit: don't discuss other games.

Sorry I should just randomly vote people without talking to them, you are right, best way to play for sure.

Most likely to be scum (non-Varsoon division): Stubbs (Agreeing with Titus? ) He just doesn't have much content in his ISO . He's tunneled Varsoon and Jmo pretty much the entire day, also.

This read-list he got town-cred for? Look at these reads based off of whether people agree with his Saki read:

Town

Glass: Great scumhunting. Got a feeling Glass vs JMO is Town vs Scum.
Oriole: Points out points that go unnoticed by others. good scumhunting.
Paschendale: confirmed town

Leaning Town

Saki: Says things as they come to mind. Doesn't seem to mind getting a lot of suspicion for it. Although I don't agree with everything he says, I don't see much reasons to think of him as scum. There's definitely going to be scum on his wagon though.

Titus: Agrees on Saki townread. Not afraid to put himself out there and go against the current.
Dyslexicon: Agrees on Saki townread. Not much other content, but I like what I've seen.

Null

Varsoon: I don't know what to think of him. At first I thought he was town, but the later posts had me doubting it again. I can go back and forth on him all day.
Vote Me: No meaningful content.

Leaning Scum

CherryDrPepper: Severe tunnelling on Saki.

Hasn't posted a single read on anyone else since the reads list, which had a lot of Nulls and which was provided by Sakura, who admitted Saki being scum was based mostly on her partners Meta. I'd like to see a new one.
Flench: Some weird logic at times(X&Y understand, so I'm not explaining), the rest of his posts lack content or reads.
Tunnel Vision: Little content, but don't really like what I've seen

Scum

JMO: Dodging questions, weird accusations, Scum side of the Glass vs JMO discussion.



I saw discussion already, so I decided to fight my sleep and provide some reasoning.

[oriole]

Actually, I just noticed Vote Me is being replaced. That's too bad, because I wanted to hear about the 360-in-3-posts he pulled off re:Varsoon early.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Stubbs

[oriole]

Hey. Hey Varsoon.

Calvin and Hobbes Mafia.

[oriole]

@Varsoon: Consolidating votes right now isn't a good idea; we still have 11+ days left. It rushes the day.

Xiao, can you give any explanation of why you think that Vote Me (the person you replaced) said that he'd never vote Varsoon?

How is he supposed to answer this? He's not Vote Me.

[oriole]

[oriole]

I'm sneaking in a quick post here, but I'm busy for another hour or so...

My impression so far is that Saki's claim is real, Varsoon is fake-claiming town because ~reasons~, and while Titus is saying some things I disagree with that doesn't make him scum.

UNVOTE:
My vote on Cherry's a bit outdated.

And you didn't feel like backing off when I said I thought you were fake-claiming 500 posts ago, or when you first said you'd be reverting to level 1 play?

[oriole]

I crumbed this, but I doubt it'll gain much credence.

Where's the crumb?

[oriole]

Ok, I'm here again.

@Titus- The "~reasons~" quote was to signify that I didn't have a specific motivation in mind outside of maybe reaction fishing from Saki. This lead me to think he was actually claiming when it became clear he was continuing long past the point where it could be called reaction fishing. I said earlier (I think) that Varsoon didn't claim until Saki wasn't in immediate danger of being lynched, and didn't push particularly hard (see: fire and brimstone). That made me think he was fakeclaiming in 519 or whatever that post was.

p-edit: Holy fuck look at all those posts. This may be a bit outdated, but whatever.

[oriole]

On Varsoon's play, he seems to keep doing things that further undermine his credibility. I don't see why he wouldn't have stuck to his guns as scum about being a roleblocker, especially when people like me were bitching about not lynching between them.

[oriole]

Do you think Varsoon's play has been meant to survive?

[oriole]

What the fuck am I reading?

[oriole]

Lynch all Liars.
Already talked with my other head, we agree on this
VOTE: Varsoon
L-1, go ahead and cl- oh wait, you already claimed.

I prefer to leave the hammer on the IC's hands.

speculation

although I am a un-cc'd town pr noone seems to be buddying me

A) The town portion of it isn't guaranteed yet, I admit you're acting more townish now, Still i cannot trust you 100% being town
B) I don't see any reason to agree with you.

Only currently confirmed town is the IC, hence why i'm more than happy to give him the hammer, i'm pretty sure any of you wouldn't be happy with anyone else hammering either.

-Sakura Hana

Oh dear, we're being called scum by the dumbass who decided that fakeclaiming a PR was a good idea.

We want the IC to hammer, sure. Personally I would have done it myself at this point. The issue here is the only reason I didnt want you lynched yet was because you claimed PR. Now that we realize you just did this because #YOLO right? Now we want you dead

-DP

I dislike all 3 of these posts, and forcing Pasche to hammer is something I disagree with. It's a subtle way of discrediting him if the wagon is bad, and I don't like the "I'm pretty sure any of you wouldn't be happy with anyone else hammering either" appeal. The line I bolded is pretty bad.

VOTE: Cherry

[oriole]

I like a lot of this. I think that JMO's willful refusal to contribute is scummier than Varsoon being kind of bonkers. Varsoon has been acting very anti-town, but not necessarily scummy. JMO has been acting scummy. I don't like all the one liners, I don't like all the quips. I don't like the unfounded votes. I don't like the promises for content and then no delivery. I don't like the hopping on wagons and just going with the wind.

You going to address the rest of this or just the vote hopping accusation?

[oriole]

@TV: Somewhat? I mean, it really depends on the game situation.

[oriole]

No, it was a response to a question a few pages back I forgot to answer.

[oriole]

It's gone the other way, too. DP revoked Sakura's town read of TV after he posted that case when Pasche complained. I can't tell if it's a scum tell or just hydra dissonance, though.

[oriole]

I'm also worried the Anime trolling Varsoon and Saki did was specifically aimed so that players would have a harder time catching up.

...Seriously? Like, do you actually think this?

[oriole]

I... ugh.... 5 pages to read through and nothing really useful contained therein. Faaaantastic.

Well, all this spam and pages after pages seems to have put us as the 5th largest mini day 1 so far, and we're closing in on number 4...

[oriole]

I'm also worried the Anime trolling Varsoon and Saki did was specifically aimed so that players would have a harder time catching up.

...Seriously? Like, do you actually think this?

Why else would they load the thread down with that garbage? A code perhaps?

Because they're self-proclaimed shitlords?

I mean, I won't pretend to know why, but I have a hard time believing it's malicious.

[oriole]

Titus, you going to vote? I don't know if you're trying to avoid putting Varsoon at L-1, but does any other wagon interest you?

[oriole]

I think Cherry's scum, and other people are indicating that they also think that. No reason for me to move my vote

just

yet. If I had to choose between the two major wagons I'd choose jmo, though.

[oriole]

I don't support Meta evidence, but:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4787887
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p4784809
and
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p4828742


JMO always does this when he's in danger of being lynched as scum.

Unless he's only been lynched as scum twice, you're going to need more evidence then that, especially presented without town meta.

[oriole]

@All, We are solidly in 4th place for the most posts in a mini game. I don't feel a need to break the record.

I'm not moving my vote to either of the L-2 wagons until Bulbazak posts some content and/or Dys shows up again.

[oriole]

@Varsoon: Do you think being suspicious of Cherry but reading Titus as town is odd?

[oriole]

@Lurkers

[oriole]

ITT: Mafia game devolves into anime, images, and GIFs.

[oriole]

Waiting. Neither of the wagons seems like it will budge, so it feels like we need Oriole, Saki, and Bulbz to really give input.
Oriole is waiting for Bulbz and Dys.
I think Saki has town-reads on both me and JMO.
Bulbz is catching up.
Dys is AFK

Think Saki's also waiting for Bulba and Dys

[oriole]

I think Xiao suggested it: Cherry as Serial Killer. I find myself thinking this to be very plausible.

You know, I wouldn't be terribly surprised.

[oriole]

The ends justify the means, especially when the ends are me

confirming

confusing

scum and half of town for myself and for others.

everybody.

FTFY

[oriole]

Really, I'm just trying to weigh the pros of Varsoon-scum behaving like he's doing today vs. the cons of it.

[oriole]

Over aplologetic.

A stark contrast, to be sure.

[oriole]

Only 7 more hours until we can prod Dys...

[oriole]

There really aren't any true lurkers this game outside of Dys though. The large amount of pages just makes it seem that way. Everyone else posts at least semi-regularly and has over 2 posts a day.

[oriole]

@Oriole: You don't have any questions for me?
I'd be happy to clear up any confusion about my play so far.

Explain your 180 on Flench recently?

[oriole]

Flench is an active lurker in my eyes. The maps and charts Flench provided prove that Flench keeps up with the thread.
Initially, I was excited and interested by the analysis that Flench gave us. It was a breath of fresh air and showed that Flench wasn't just scum coasting through to an easy victory. Furthermore, I saw the charts as a point of trajectory that could be used against scum!Flench in a longer game, so there was town motivation for posting them from my PoV at the time.
However, given Flench's quick hopping on my wagon and rather distastefully inarticulated reasons for doing so, I put Flench in a scummier pool. In retrospect, his charts allow him an easy way of arguing for any of the wagons he provided there, which allowed him to attack any of the likely players up for lynch early in the day. He's not contributed very much to the game at all, and has largely lurked and done very little hunting of scum--just analysis of current trends and plopping a rather safe, coasting vote.

This sounds a bit biased, you know. One vote on your wagon (however scummy it may be) dismisses earlier towny vibes?

[oriole]

Eh. I still like Cherry for SK or town more than scum, for ~reasons~.

[oriole]

Eh. I still like Cherry for SK or town more than scum, for ~reasons~.

I don't like this. Why not elaborate? Please elaborate

Well, the ~reasons~ aren't relevant right now. I'll probably elaborate if I can Day 2.

[oriole]

@Titus: I believe that Oriole thinks certain Night Actions will happen that'll influence the ~reasons~ and that mentioning it now might make whoever is responsible for those night actions not commit them/play differently.

This

[oriole]

@Rank, what do you think of Cherry? Oriole?

He posted a reads list, you know.

[oriole]

Hmm. May have misread something re:Cherry is the SK.

[oriole]

Well, it was based off of a certain situation I thought Cherry was trying to set up. It may of just been them misinterpreting the set-up, from what I'm reading on the last page or so.

[oriole]

Well, it was based off of a certain situation I thought Cherry was trying to set up. It may of just been them misinterpreting the set-up, from what I'm reading on the last page or so.

Cherry's voting pattern and behavior should rule Cherry out as the SK, supposing one exists.

Based off of your theory of ideal SK play?

[oriole]

My suspects for tomorrow

Cherry
JMO
Stubbs
Bulbazak


Flench
Xiao
Oriole (no one's pressured him, I find that odd)
Dys
Saki
Tunnel

Titus, can you explain this? I mean, you've listed everybody as a suspect, right?

[oriole]

food for thought:
why is there no pressure on oriole?
why is there no pressure on my claim?

Because I'm in space.
Because your reactions to Varsoon, etc. seem town?

[oriole]

Yeah oriole seems so certain that i'm an SK that makes me question his alignment

Are you even reading my posts?

Hmm.

May have misread something

re:Cherry is the SK.

Well, it was based off of a certain situation I thought Cherry was trying to set up.

It may of just been them misinterpreting the set-up, from what I'm reading on the last page or so.

[oriole]

Hmm yeah, guess I missed that part of your post, sorry. Well what would you say if i say

A) That i'm the SK or...
B) That i'm not the SK?

I don't really think it'd factor either way. I thought you were trying to set something up, turns out you probably weren't.

[oriole]

Closing in on the 3rd largest day for a mini... Only like 10 more posts.

[oriole]

UNVOTE:

Pretty sure my vote's doing about nothing on Cherry.

[oriole]

See this is what jmo and I meant.

I was going to inb4 this, but then Cherry posted it. Oh well.

[oriole]

If we're lynching Varsoon, it's should be over a collective disbelief over the counter-claim antics.

[oriole]

I unvoted Cherry, not Varsoon.

[oriole]

What was the scum motivation in Varsoon backing off of his counter-claim, again?

[oriole]

@Oriole: Yeah, and I wasn't calling for it now, but earlier. The fact that it didn't happen is significant and worth tracking.
On the VoteMe front, I'm digging for info from someone with the same slot. That slot hasn't produced information other than "Never voting Varsoon", and I want to know if Xiao has any idea why. This not only lets us see Xiao's approach to that aspect of the game, but also lets us track Xiao's rationale from this point to any one later.


@Saki: Oh. Yeah, that is a 180.
Pasche confirmed that my play was getting us nowhere and I realized it was. We haven't lynched out of any of the major wagons yet, and there's still a large amount of lurkers hiding underneath the torrent of WIFOM I created. I was originally shooting to confuse and expose scum, but the town got caught up in it as well, so it didn't work out. Instead, playing straightforwardly should get us the most results from here on out.

Confuse scum, eh?

[oriole]

How do you even hint your alignment?

"No guys, it's cool; I breadcrumbed I was town right here, by spelling town with the first letter of each sentence, so it's all good"?

[oriole]

How do you even hint your alignment?

"No guys, it's cool; I breadcrumbed I was town right here, by spelling town with the first letter of each sentence, so it's all good"?

[oriole]

We've added another 20 pages for Bulbazak to read since he posted yesterday. I have a feeling he might take a bit to catch up.

[oriole]

Are you talking about the ISOs I completed more than 1000 posts ago? I said in a conclusion that I think Titus is more likely than Varsoon to be mafia. It's not very current. I'd have to go through it again.

[oriole]

I will hammer as well if needed.

Stubbs, we should NOT hammer until the replacement comments. Period.

This what we're talking about now?

[oriole]

Any last words Varsoon? I will hammer

And this is the Stubbs intent to hammer post. Hmm.

[oriole]

Titus, in 1580 (quoted a few posts up) who is "we"?

[oriole]

Titus, in 1580 (quoted a few posts up) who is "we"?

Stubbs and I.

Good answer. That's the answer I was looking for, anyways.

[oriole]

Titus, in 1580 (quoted a few posts up) who is "we"?

Stubbs and I.

Good answer. That's the answer I was looking for, anyways.

Gj you cleared him...jk who else would it have been? What kind of question was that?

Wanted to see if she'd take responsibility for wanting to hammer Varsoon with Stubbs there. Chill. Could have easily produced some bullshit like "The town" or something.

[oriole]

It's obvious that Varsoon and Titus are now gonna run me up to L-1 to force me to claim, maybe i should claim right now and save everyone 30 more pages of them driving a wagon against me.

Wow. We can do that all by ourselves. A lot of people would have to believe you're scummy, given the fact we have lurkers and you have two mafia buddies it should be immensely difficult to get you to L-1 given that no one understood Varsoon's PR/VT thing. I'm not certain I get it 100% myself I just know that Cherry and JMO are scummier.

Ew. What is this? "Nobody understands Varsoon, so the can't see the truth that you're scummy", I mean, that's a poor argument. Especially with the following blindly suggested in the next statement "I'm not 100% sure, but..."

Saki, nice catch' i'd say Bulls Eye!

I do care which order, i rather the RB gets lynched that way the other wont interfere with us.

Buddy harder?

There's also no way for us to confirm your PR claim.
It's exclusive information, so basing your defense on that alone is worthless.
Instead, your PR claim looks like a poor response to a tiny amount of pressure--a likely hydra gambit you devised to try to accuse Titus and I of being scum together.
Now you're blatantly buddying Saki with a hope that Saki will join your Titus wagon because you've got no traction so far.
It's transparent, Cherry.
You can drop it now.

Yes, it's all a hydra gambit . For fuck's sake.

Drop it, i already claimed i'm a town PR, is town seriously this dumb to run up another PR to L-1 to make them claim? SERIOUSLY?!

Whee hiding behind power roles is fun because if I vaguely claim one I can just accuse everyone who votes me of rolefishing. I swear, it seems like you secretly

want

to claim.

You outed yourself.....

That was my other head who didn't understand my plan, and so far all you know is im a town PR, scum doesn't know if im a dangerous PR to them or not yet.

Your plan where you announced you left breadcrumbs in the set-up spec? I mean, only PRs leave those.

Really, I think that whole argument was pretty stupid. So is the following one between jmo and Xiao/Flench/Varsoon.

VOTE: Stubbs

@Stubbs:
Hardly.
The fact that I counter-claimed Roleblocker is not speculation, it's a fact. It happened.
I also claimed revoked that counter-claim and claimed VT.
I explained why I originally claimed, why I stuck with it for so long, and why I finally claimed VT.

By your definition, simply saying that I'm trying to do anything to survive is speculation/Wifom.
Ergo, your own argument defeats your own argument.
That's Intertextuality, Bitch.

You're right. But the fact that you're saying you wouldn't have played the way you did is also Wifom.

The 2 biggest wagons are on my top suspects. So no, I'm not looking at anyone else right now.
For me, one of you has to die today, and we go from there.

This is shit. Oh the top two wagons are my major suspects, so I'm not looking at anyone else right now? That's terrible.

[oriole]

@All, please let's stop posting until Paschendale gets back. I can't let stupid go on but I don't want this thread to be any more of a trainwreck than it already is.

Stifling discussion for Pasche is a terrible idea.

[oriole]

If Varsoon is town, the people advocating a lynch one than the other strategy between Saki and Varsoon need to be looked at, because then it's likely they're both town.

[oriole]

If Varsoon is town, the people advocating a lynch one than the other strategy between Saki and Varsoon need to be looked at, because then it's likely they're both town.

Can you clarify this to me? did you mean that we should look at people outside of the ones advocating for a Saki or Varsoon lynch?

I mean back when we had supposedly two roleblockers, I think people were advocating lynching one of them, and if they flipped town, lynching the other. If Varsoon really is VT and Saki's town, then scum would have known that they were both town. It's a set-up to lynch what was two town roleblockers due to the improbability.

[oriole]

I would much rather him catch up in the day.

If he's scum, catching up at night means getting help from his scum-buddies.

[oriole]

has noone noticed stubbs never delivered his case on JMO

What the hell are you talking about. My reason for voting JMo is one of the first posts I made.

You better be able to come of with a more

recent

case for voting jmo then, because situations have vastly changed over the course of the game.

I

may

have skimmed a lot of pages.

I don't need any more motivation to lynch Varsoon really. There is absolutely nothing that he can say to change my mind about him anymore.

"I've skimmed the thread but it doesn't matter because I refuse to lynch anyone outside of Varsoon." A+ town motivation there.

I've been voting for JMO all day. You don't need to point that out to me.
Varsoon is too big of a distraction to keep around, antitown and likely scum.

Varsoon has provided content, true. But the content he has provided is the reason I want to Lynch him.

If you don't like my attitude on this, so be it. Vote me, Lynch me for all I care. But I want this day to end.
Varsoon's flip will give me the information I want. Even if I'm wrong, I can live with losing a VT. JMO can wait for day 2

Here's some dramatics with the whole "Lynch me for all I care", and

already rationalizing a mis-lynch

with that last couple sentences.

atm you're acting no better than JMO, stubbs
you come in, you tunnel someone, and you make a bunch of people doubt your alignment

To be honest I don't care anymore what anyone thinks of my alignment. I just want this game to move forward.
I want answers and most of those involve Varsoon's alignment.

More "I don't care what other people think" crap. I get that you have to look like you don't, but mentioning it every post makes it seem like you do. You better be able to elaborate on these "answers" if you're promoting lynching for information.

Why are you complaining about me tunneling Varsoon, Saki? I thought you had him as scum too?

"Why are you focusing on me instead of [X]?"

So you're accusing me of tunnelling Varsoon.

You have both Varsoon and Titus as scum, but don't want to vote Varsoon? What's the logic in that?

"So you're accusing me of tunneling Varsoon." --> Tunnels Varsoon further. Mkay.

[oriole]

Votecount 1.52

[L-2] Varsoon - Dyslexicon, TunnelVision, Flench, jmo16mla, CherryDrPepper
[L-2] jmo16mla - StubbsKVM, Xiao Long, Paschendale, Varsoon, Titus
[L-6] CherryDrPepper - oriole

Not Voting: Bulbazak, Saki

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

---

Huh, you know, this looks familiar.

[oriole]

I'm not voting JMo anymore, Why do I need to provide a case on him.
I am tunneling Varsoon and I will continue doing so. Too much has happened to keep him around.

I'm not looking for townpoints oriole. I want to Lynch scum and that scum is Varsoon.

This day can go on for another 90 pages for all I care.

My mind is set.

Bullshit bullshit bullshit. You've spend at least a few posts bitching about the length of this day/how active it is.

[oriole]

*spent

[oriole]

I'm getting at that we've gone in a 600 or so post circle; back to the two L-2 wagons, with me, you, and Bulbazak off the main wagons.

[oriole]

Ah I see, thanks for confirming your scum slot then, because that's exactly why

I left a breadcrumb midway during the setup speculation.

-Sakura Hana

Yea- oh wait. You pretty much claimed PR here.

[oriole]

[oriole]

Leaving my vote on Stubbs for now, although I'm looking vaguely in Titus's direction.

[oriole]

Because the wagons are going for anti-town plays instead of scummy plays?

[oriole]

More subtle than

"Lol jk not actually a PR" and "Fuck off, not giving you reads", to start.

[oriole]

Do you guys not realize Stubbs has attempted to hammer twice due to and generally bitched about the thread being too large/fast then pulls out bullshit like "I don't care if this day goes 90 more pages, I want to lynch scum"?

[oriole]

@Oriole: Do you see Cherry as anti-town instead of scum, then?

Leaving Cherry for Day 2.

[oriole]

I'm not voting JMo anymore, Why do I need to provide a case on him.
I am tunneling Varsoon and I will continue doing so. Too much has happened to keep him around.

I'm not looking for townpoints oriole. I want to Lynch scum and that scum is Varsoon.
This day can go on for another 90 pages for all I care. My mind is set.

atm you're acting no better than JMO, stubbs
you come in, you tunnel someone, and you make a bunch of people doubt your alignment

To be honest I don't care anymore what anyone thinks of my alignment. I just want this game to move forward.
I want answers and most of those involve Varsoon's alignment.

Looks like you only confused yourself.

There's enough wifom in this topic as it is, that's Why Varsoon has got to go.

I've been voting for JMO all day. You don't need to point that out to me.
Varsoon is too big of a distraction to keep around, antitown and likely scum.

Varsoon has provided content, true. But the content he has provided is the reason I want to Lynch him.

If you don't like my attitude on this, so be it. Vote me, Lynch me for all I care. But I want this day to end.
Varsoon's flip will give me the information I want. Even if I'm wrong, I can live with losing a VT. JMO can wait for day 2

Look at how theatrical he's being. "Too much has happened to keep Varsoon around" my ass.

[oriole]

You said I wouldn't say the same thing at L-2. So, put me at L-2 and watch me say the same thing.

That wasn't the damn point?
When your death is imminent will you really say "I don't care about dying?"

Stubbs says this repeatedly with 0-1 votes on him

[oriole]

Any last words Varsoon? I will hammer

"Any last words, Varsoon?"

wtf, 20 more pages? This needs to end.

Varsoon is a mistake Rank. I know I pushed that thought heavily earlier on. However, Varsoon's lThe vote on Varsoon is a mistake, however I do understand the general sentiment of getting this day over.

Titus, what happened between the last time Varsoon was at L-1 and now that makes you not want to hammer?

I have intent to hammer but I need to catch up first...again...

"I'm 20 pages or so behind, but intent to hammer, because

this must end.

"

[oriole]

inb4 Varsoon and Titus jump on it 'cause they're fine with anything other than themselves.

Come on, Titus. Make this shit happen.

[oriole]

Let him bus Stubbs, then.

[oriole]

We now have the longest day in a mini, btw.

[oriole]

Hopefully this Stubbs wagon fixes that.

[oriole]

inb4 Stubbs OMGUS on Oriole.

No, because his two major scum reads are jmo and Varsoon, so he's not looking at anyone else

[oriole]

This awesome Stubbs wagon that I started.

[oriole]

Yeah oriole, that Stubbs wagon looks promising.
VOTE: Stubbs

really Cherry

you see two scum and one starting to slip and you jump onto Stubbs wagon
inb4 Varsoon and Titus jump on it 'cause they're fine with anything other than themselves.

Specifically, this.

[oriole]

Stubbs posted a lot and y'all reward him with a vote train?

Terrible argument. If his posts are scummy (they are), yes.

[oriole]

atm you're acting no better than JMO, stubbs
you come in, you tunnel someone, and you make a bunch of people doubt your alignment

To be honest I don't care anymore what anyone thinks of my alignment. I just want this game to move forward.

I want answers and most of those involve Varsoon's alignment.

Oriole you mentions earlier the above post was scummy.

I think the bolded sentence makes perfect sense, if I knew Varsoon's alignment I would know a lot about this game, same goes for jmo to an extent. I don't think a Stubbs lynch would give a lot of info compared to the other two.

I actually find the part you didn't bold more scummy than the part that you did. We can make a Stubbs lynch have information, though. Look at all the information we're currently getting about how people view Stubbs.

[oriole]

@TV: I just wanna hang those people I mentioned.
Mostly JMO, Flench, and Cherry.

^Vote is on Stubbs

[oriole]

Oh well since im technically dead already i'll claim and you'll see why i was so paranoid
I'm Town vigilante.
That's why i knew for certain there's 1 scum roleblocker MVVXXXXX
So i knew i'd be the target for a roleblock if scum knew my PR. And im most probably gonna be roleblocked and shot tonight.

Decide whether to believe or not, that's your choice.

Hey, remember when I said Cherry was SK or town and everyone was like "rawr explain this"? ^That's why.

[oriole]

Other notes reading up again:

The only person who could even remotely be classified as a lurker is Dys. This town is not "inactive".

Christ, why the hell is everyone throwing bitch fits about not getting their super-obv scum lynched?

Titus, you're on page 96. Come up with better shit then "Oh he slipped and said they teehee"

Let's just lynch Stubbs so we don't have to deal with a replacement taking forever.

[oriole]

I already made a case on Stubbs. The let's lynch him for replacing out was at best semi-serious.

[oriole]

Varsoon, do you think Cherry's a SK?

[oriole]

Let the scum team take care of it, then. Let's lynch mafia.

A choice between Varsoon and jmo upsets me.

[oriole]

Let the scum team take care of it, then. Let's lynch mafia.

A choice between Varsoon and jmo upsets me.

Consider Titus.

Yeah, I really am.

@Varsoon- You're also dangerously not accounting for the possibility of Cherry just being a frustrated town vig.

[oriole]

@Oriole, why does a lynch option of jmo annoy you? There's repeated promises of wall with evidence that we do not get.

Really? Where?

[oriole]

See, it's funny, because that's not what I asked you for. I'm asking you to show me where jmo promises a wall like you said he did in 2461

[oriole]

See, it's funny, because that's not what I asked you for. I'm asking you to show me where jmo promises a wall like you said he did in 2461

[oriole]

See, it's funny, because that's not what I asked you for. I'm asking you to show me where jmo promises a wall like you said he did in 2461

If you don't interpret those posts as promises/attempts to wall with evidence and failing then they are flat out refusal which is scummy. The promise can at least be theoretically fulfilled.

I wouldn't call it scummy. I might call it anti-town though.

[oriole]

@Cherry:
"scum knows there's a scum roleblocker, i know there's a scum roleblocker"

Why do you get to say things like this?

Because a town vig

would

know there's a scum roleblocker?

[oriole]

"Titus, if you quickhammer, I'll nail your feet to the floor tomorrow"

>Cherry quickhammers

[oriole]

Votecount 1.67

[L-2] Varsoon - Dyslexicon, jmo16mla, TunnelVision, StubbsKVM, Saki
[L-4] StubbsKVM - oriole, CherryDrPepper, Varsoon
[L-5] jmo16mla - Xiao Long, Flench
[L-6] CherryDrPepper - Paschendale
[L-6] Saki - Titus

Not Voting: Bulbazak

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

---

Add your vote and Bulbazak's.

[oriole]

I think Stubbs

is

replacing out.

[oriole]

[oriole]

Blaze of glory

[oriole]

[oriole]

On a Mac; I'll just have to download some knockoff of it.

[oriole]

Cherry's SK and needs to be lynched. Jmo's next.

VOTE: Cherry

[oriole]

At this point, I'm certain that there's a fake-claiming power role, Bulbazak. The one that makes the most sense to me is Cherry's claim.

If you had to choose a fake-claimer, who would it be?

[oriole]

Wait, fuck. Read the setup wrong.

UNVOTE:

[oriole]

Oriole also seems town for genuine scumhunting.

I felt like I had seen this before...

Oriole is town due to the genuineness of his scumhunting.

VOTE: Dyslexicon

[oriole]

@Dys: Feels like Saki's more newbtown playing defensive then scum manipulating people. Feels like Titus might be manipulating me. Sitting back to see what they have to say.
334 is me entertaining a town-Saki.

No regards for the odds?

Except you doubted Saki's claim way before Varsoon claimed:

And a few more... then when Varson claimed you used it to cast even MORE doubt on Saki's claim, you would be doubting Saki regardless of Varsoon's claim, sorry but i have a hard time believing you're town now.

-Sakura Hana

Why is this so scummy? If someone you find scummy claim PT there's no rule that says you can't push them for more answers, and you certainly can still doubt their claim. Would it be better if Titus just left Saki alone?

@Cherry: Which is why I am hesitant. Titus seems really eager for the Saki lynch, which is null, given the situation. Still, makes me noided.

Do you think Titus seemed eager for a Saki lynch between Saki's and your claim? Why does a null tell make you noided?

@tunnel: Funny that you came into the thread looking to exploit a lynch. Anywaaaay.
I originally wanted attention so I would come off as VI and wouldn't be a lynch target or NK.
Earlier, in-thread, I explained why explaining my methods would be pro-scum.
Admitting to town what I'm up to equates to admitting to scum as to what I'm up to.
So, yeah, if I don't live through the night, it's due to belligerent rubes like you.

You actually agree with me on something. That's weird.

And what do you think about that? What is your estimate that Varsoon is town?

@Oriole: I'm hesitant to support a Titus/Saki lynch right now, since I'm growing more and more convinced that this is a townvtown conflict. Now, to confirm we're both Roleblockers, we could let Saki and I live to the night and then we could target each other. Of course, this doesn't account for jailers/other similar roles.

How would this work? Also, there are no jailers in C9++.

So, people who support lynching between Saki(me) and Varsoon, your main argument is numbers..?

Yes, it is for me. It's about 1% chance they are both town. I can understand the logic behind not lynching between them, and if they are both telling the truth that would royally suck. What I don't understand though is why they don't vote each other. Saki who didn't vote Varsoon when he got CC'd is for me counter intuitive. For them if they are indeed RB they'd have 99% chance of going for a scum lynch, so them voting other people doesn't make sense unless their more than 99% certain this someone else is scum. Which doesn't seem to be the case, especially for Varsoon. Actually they've both ended up with a vote on Titus, which is bizarre. This makes them even more suspect imo. Also, going for another lynch could possibly trigger another claim as well, which I don't think we need at this point.

I already suspect Titus
Equally as much as I suspect that if I put a vote on Titus, he'll get lynched, flip town,

and then either Saki or me will me mislynched D2.

This implies Saki is town then? Why so sure?

I started taking notes and decided to just post the notes instead of redoing everything on the computer, sorry if you don't like pictures.

This is really cool. And your handwriting is exactly like mine, which freaks me out, hah!

I don't think I FOS'd saki either..

Why did you vote Varsoon? What do you think about Saki?

Two people trying to kill each other can be of the same alignment but they both cannot be mafia.

Actually they can. But that would depend on how real the attack feels I guess, which would always be up to debate. I'll look over the "real" factor myself when I get the time, hopefully soon.

---

VOTE: Varsoon

I don't understand him not voting Saki, but instead voting

with

Saki. Also seems to account for a mislynch on Saki already.

This is the Dys vote on Varsoon. It's interesting because he actually talks about bussing in a reply to Flench in the same post.

[oriole]

Given that Dys only has 10 votes (that should be lynchable in its own right), I don't see him posting much more.
What are you looking for by way of discussion, Tunnel? And why do you (Bauss) think Jmo is town?

Discussion from our less vocal players. There's a few shady things that I've noticed about each player on the list of the 6 unclaimed/unknown. (Oriole, Dys,

Bulb

, jmo, Flench, Salmonella.) I can make a case for any of them being scum. It stands to reason that townies will probe and try to find the light whilst the scum will sit tight and play follow the leader.

So today gives us lots of opportunities to scum hunt, interrogate, and generate meaningful content. I'm hoping some folks step up and argue for/against some of the cases I'm going to make today. We had pockets of great discussion yesterday, but there was lots of clutter. I think we can slow down this day phase, demand content from the lurkers, and set ourselves up for a win.

My read on JMO is gut based with some considerations for meta. I think his play is vastly different from my own but I re-read his ISO several times and I think I can see the thought process behind his behaviors, and they jive for me. I also look at everybody as if they are scum and try to make a case for it. My case on JMO as scum (from my perspective and how I develop reads) is light and weak compared to others in the game. That said, my other head disagrees, and since my own opinion isn't a strong one I'm open minded. If we had no better target, JMO is an obvious lynch today. If we have a better target, JMO is an obvious target for a vigilante kill tonight.

IMO, what Rank and I do today might be our last contributions to the town (we are a 1 shot cop, lesss valuable to protect now, and a reasonable target for NK as such.) So we are both hoping to give it everything we can today. If we can get into some exchanges/discussions with/about certain players, I think we can at least do our part for the day.

-1-

If Bulbazak is scum I'd be stunned. He focused in right on Varsoon when he replaced in and put him at L-1.

There was an interaction with Varsoon that made me think Flench is town. Let me see if I can find it.

[oriole]

I don't think Bulb is scum due to Glass' play, but his vote on D1 when he hadn't caught up is scummy, and he's not exactly been pro-town D2.
I am interested in your case on Oriole, Tunnel, as Oriole has been consistently town to me.

His vote without catching up was on Varsoon though, and led to his lynch.

I tried to lynch Stubbs, remember? I tunneled pretty hard on him.

[oriole]

Eh. I thought Stubbs was scummier.

[oriole]

OK, here it is.

Thanks for being so compliant, Flench.
This really goes a long way, and, if you are town, it'll do an amazing job of proving that later in the game.
If you're scum, it'll have the same effect, since you just provided a lot of hypothetical outlooks that'll play into trajectory of your votes/methods later.
Essentially, you're being as transparent as possible through these last few posts, and I see that as the most town thing a player can do.

@Titus: Buddying is null. Furthermore, I'd like to encourage Flench to post more because I think he's got a solid town voice and more content from him makes reading him easier and provides a lot for town to work on.

Oreo, you are double-stuffed.
Also, I agree with Flench!Town, am skeptical of Stubbz, and I think Oriole is town too.

Flench, you realize how scummy that sounds, right?
You want to string me up now because if I have time, I might prove my innocence?
Honestly, if you feel so worried about me, lynch me on D2 or D3. As of now, I've provided enough Wifom to make scum waste a NK or PR on me, which is good enough. I can say things like this due to the WIFOM already created. I can bluff right at scum because of what I've done and they have no way of knowing if I'm a PR or not, and so I'm high-risk for scum to keep alive.

Instead, Flench, you should be tracking my logic through the entire game with the knowledge that I am VT. A lot of my actions make a lot more sense once you know that.

In fact, this is exactly what I'm talking about in 1044.

Vote: Flench

Basically, it seemed like Varsoon was trying to buddy Flench after Flench posted his notes, and when it failed went back to saying Flench was scum.

[oriole]

Varsoon vote history

Jmo → Saki →

Titus

→ Cherry →

Titus

→ jmo → TunnelVision →

Titus

→ Flench → jmo → Cherry → jmo → Stubbs → Cherry

Did not vote for: oriole, Dyslexicon, Glass/Bulbazak, Vote Me/Xiao Long,

Paschendale

It might be more significant if I give the severity of the vote...

I'll do that next post.

[oriole]

Actually, I missed a Saki vote in there too. Let me clean this up.

[oriole]

Varsoon vote history (v1.1)

Jmo (L-6)→ Saki (L-3) →

Titus (L-5)

→ Saki (L-5) → Cherry (L-5) →

Titus (L-5)

→ jmo (L-5) → TunnelVision (L-4) →

Titus (L-5)

→ Flench (L-6) → jmo (L-3) → Cherry (L-5) → jmo (L-2) → Stubbs (L-4) → Cherry (L-4)

Did not vote for: oriole, Dyslexicon, Glass/Bulbazak, Vote Me/Xiao Long,

Paschendale

It seems to be a lot of L-5 and other early votes, mainly bouncing between 3 or 4 people.

The votes that stick out are the TunnelVision vote that was following Pasche on a wagon, and the vote on Flench, which followed a failed buddying attempt.

I think jmo could have been bussed here, seeing as Varsoon kept jumping on late in the wagon only to jump off when another wagon appeared. Stubbs and Cherry look more like trying to get any sort of town counter-wagon going.

[oriole]

OK, here it is.

Thanks for being so compliant, Flench.
This really goes a long way, and, if you are town, it'll do an amazing job of proving that later in the game.
If you're scum, it'll have the same effect, since you just provided a lot of hypothetical outlooks that'll play into trajectory of your votes/methods later.
Essentially, you're being as transparent as possible through these last few posts, and I see that as the most town thing a player can do.

@Titus: Buddying is null. Furthermore, I'd like to encourage Flench to post more because I think he's got a solid town voice and more content from him makes reading him easier and provides a lot for town to work on.

Oreo, you are double-stuffed.
Also, I agree with Flench!Town, am skeptical of Stubbz, and I think Oriole is town too.

Flench, you realize how scummy that sounds, right?
You want to string me up now because if I have time, I might prove my innocence?
Honestly, if you feel so worried about me, lynch me on D2 or D3. As of now, I've provided enough Wifom to make scum waste a NK or PR on me, which is good enough. I can say things like this due to the WIFOM already created. I can bluff right at scum because of what I've done and they have no way of knowing if I'm a PR or not, and so I'm high-risk for scum to keep alive.

Instead, Flench, you should be tracking my logic through the entire game with the knowledge that I am VT. A lot of my actions make a lot more sense once you know that.

In fact, this is exactly what I'm talking about in 1044.

Vote: Flench

Basically, it seemed like Varsoon was trying to buddy Flench after Flench posted his notes, and when it failed went back to saying Flench was scum.

Oriole, please make your case instead of just posting quotes.

I don't know where you were going with the thing between Varsoon and I.

Am I a bad boy or a good boy?

I think you're town. Varsoon was going after you early when you hadn't put up much content yet, and then when you posted those notes, he tried to buddy you. When it failed and you voted him, he went right back to going after you and calling you scum.

[oriole]

Case for Oriole:

1) This is tricky, read it a couple times. Oriole states in 361 an if/than situation based on game setup. He commits to this probability argument on game setup before Varsoon claims. Varsoon claims full roleblocker in post 384. And right then, Oriole subtly suggests an opportunity for Varsoon to weasel his way out of the shitty probability false claim he made: post 392. "Any chance either of you is a 1 shot roleblocker (hint hint, Varsoon you're going down in flames bro.)" He does this because he recognizes we're going to filet Varsoon for his BS claim and he wants to give him an out. Varsoon's response says "I can roleblock each night" and shuts down this chance.

2) In the early game, Oriole was very loose with his vote and threw it around to add pressure, demonstrate his suspicions: See posts 62 (for Titus), 133 (for TunnelVision), 234 (CherryDrPepper).

2 continued) Oriole starts the fence sitting on Varsoon in post 417 with a "It doesn't make any sense why he would do this, but then again..." By 519, he's FOS'ing Varsoon... but wait. No vote. 525, more suspicion of Varsoon. No vote. By 669 he'd rather hang Titus over Varsoon. 677 he's stating we should lynch outside of Varsoon and Saki for the day. No votes for Varsoon at all, nor for Titus during this attempt at recovery for team scum.

2 continued) NOW CHECK THIS: 688, dude asks VoteMe a simple question and tosses that vote right on for pressure. Just a few posts ago, he was feigning suspicion of Varsoon/Titus but didn't drop the votes on them for pressure.

3) Oriole begins defending Varsoon: By post 853, oriole is actively refuting the case against Varsoon. But, he concedes several points are irrefutable. Here's a slip in the mix on point 1: "I agree with Pasche here. If Varsoon contradicted himself "multiple times", there should be examples available."
Instead of looking for scum, he's defending scum. What? Because somebody scum hunting is looking for reasons that people are scum, not searching for reasons they aren't. The contradictions in Varsoon's posts are blatantly obvious if you even bother to look at his ISO (which in theory Oriole had done to challenge the case I made.) So, he refutes this allegation by saying "Provide evidence." He went into that ISO dive and research with the sole intention of invalidating my claim, NOT exploring the feasibility of it and developing a better read on Varsoon. This is not scum hunting. This is not town behavior.

3 continued) On points 5 and 12, he agrees that there is no appropriate rebuttal. It would stand to reason that would leave some lingering suspicion of the defender (Varsoon.) But, in 906, he's back to actively defending Varsoon again... this time against Titus's case. This continues for a bit with some back and forth, but Oriole remains non-committal on Varsoon.

4) Pushing a an alternate wagon on a lurker to derail the Varsoon wagon. Oriole starts this in 2055 as things start to look more serious on Varsoon. And he rides it until the end of the day phase. Continually adding more and more reasons why somebody else should hang.

5) Most of his play has been non-committal and not pro town. This is a harder point to make. Varsoon did some things that were actively anti-town in nature (which are easier to identify.) Oriole is more controlled and slick, and hasn't done that. BUT, he has not done anything that is pro-town in nature. So, the absence of pro-town play can be viewed as scummy.

This is just a little bit to get us started. I have more. Let's see what Oriole has to say and see of anybody else wants to build on some of this.

All you lurkers need to step up and get in on this game though. Seriously. We've all heard enough from me, Saki, Xiao, Cherry, etc.

-1-

My motivation for defending Varsoon I thought I made clear.

I'm sneaking in a quick post here, but I'm busy for another hour or so...

My impression so far is that Saki's claim is real, Varsoon is fake-claiming town because ~reasons~, and while Titus is saying some things I disagree with that doesn't make him scum.

UNVOTE:
My vote on Cherry's a bit outdated.

I wasn't FOSing Varsoon in 519, where do you get that impression? I explicitly said "Varsoon is fake-claiming town because ~reasons~". I said I didn't know why he would do that, but I was pretty clear I thought he was town. There's no suspicion on Varsoon in 525, either, because it was defending 519. 669 and 677 follow 519 in that I thought they were both town.

Point 3 is false in accusations that I went ISO diving to refute TV. My ISO dive was linked. It was 669, while his case (where he alleges Varsoon's contradictions) was 793.

I disagree with your characterization of Stubbs as a lurker. He had 52 posts in 13 days. While the speed of this thread makes it seem like people lurk, the only lurker this game has really been Dys. Pedanticness aside, sure I pushed that wagon on Stubbs. I attacked the posts he made though, not the lack of them. This is the second game I've been accused of piling on reasons to vote someone as I drive a wagon. I flipped town in that game, I'll flip town here too.

I'm pretty sure I committed to defending Varsoon and pushing Stubbs as a wagon.

[oriole]

I'm not burned. I've made points the whole game. The trouble, honestly, is that day 1 yielded basically no valuable reads on anyone. Some people were too quiet, some people act like morons, and some people were scummy sometimes and towny others. But if you all can't handle a very short ISO...

If Dys keeps not posting, he should be lynched. You don't let a lurker get away with it this much, and his posts haven't been useful.
Flench started out towny to me, but has stopped contributing. He's doing the active lurking and just giving people attitude. He should be lynched, too.
Oriole started out good, too, but his arguments have really slipped. Maybe he just really wanted to bus Varsoon, or maybe he just only had one decent read. Either way, his passion has disappeared. He might be a decent lynch candidate.
Xiao is smug. He's poking people rather than offering any real opinions. He's just summing up the past without reaching conclusions about the present. He could be a good lynch.
Cherry has been stepping up a bit, but still teetering. The SK theory on them is stupid. Not yet for lynching.
Saki is basically useless.
Tunnel has stepped up.
Sal has to say more before I'll have anything to say about him.
Bulb lost his passion after day 1, too, and started just poking at people. He's not risking much nor making compelling arguments. He could be a decent lynch.
The only person I'm really in the dark about is jmo. The recent cases on him were bad, but he doesn't contribute much. He could be a decent lynch.

So, that would be 6 solid lynch targets out of 11 players. 7 if we counted Saki. I'm not pushing hard for any lynches at the moment because I know that there are definitely town players who are scumming it the hell up.

Saying Xiao isn't offering any real opinions is laughable when he's been screaming that jmo's scum for this entire thread. I have no clue how he's just summing up the past, either.
I have no idea how people "lose their passion" after Day 1.
Why can't you read Stubbs, who had Sal's slot?
Implying that "giving people attitude" is lynch-worthy is bad.
Going after others for not making cases/poking at people/whatever when you've admitted that you're not pushing hard for lynches because you want 6-7 people lynched is terrible.
Also, this post is extremely different from 2344. You called Jmo likely scum in 2121, 1801, and 1573.
Why are you so inconsistent?

[oriole]

At this point, I support massclaim.

I'd like to propose something different about the order, though. I'd rather us all make lists (excluding ourselves) and average them out. That way, everyone has to take a stand on players.

So my proposed order would be

Jmo/Dys
Salmonella
Flench
Xiao
Bulbazak

[oriole]

I'm here, let me catch-up real quick.

[oriole]

Salmonella can you unvote until you have read the thread and given a read list, or I have time to get my big post up, really don't want to get screwed.

I really want this to happen before the day ends.

I'm pretty confident we don't have a doctor. The set-up where we'd have one (MBVVCDT) has a serial killer as well, so they'd both have to target the same person. It's possible, but I think just not having a doctor's more likely.

[oriole]

Oh, that's good.

Gg everybody.

Huge thanks to DBK to modding this game with all of its activity.

[oriole]

What, I already missed the pre-ins to DBK's next game? Bummer.