Round 15 Discussion

[Brendan]

Such a fun move! And honestly such a great merge. Every round has been exciting and unpredictable. These players came to play!

I'm so excited to see who makes it to the final three.

[Wes Anderson]

So in an absolutely exhilarating move, Richie cuts Suzy.

Suzy would have brought him to the end though and Oracle's immediate reaction is: "My head is reeling. Someone just cut Richie the check now," so now I wonder if Richie's threat level has elevated past Madame's. 

Luckily for him, unless Madame wins immunity, he has a deal with Gustave and if kept means at the worst for Richie, he might get a 2-2 deadlock and firemaking here.
 Even if Madame does win immunity, looks like there's a slight chance Gustave votes Oracle.  Well, Oracle did just vote him, so...

There's also the possibility that as time passes Gustave decides it would be dumb to keep the deal at all because that just boosts Richie even more for FTC.  Honestly maybe if Madame wins immunity, keep the deal and boot Oracle to steal the #vanhoe glory, but if Oracle or Gustave win immunity, break the deal and vote out Richie to show you're nobody's pawn.

[Brendan]

So it seems like Richie really might be making it to FTC as long as Madame does not win FIC.

And even if Madame does win, he has at least a path to survive with Gustave.

It's honestly so impressive that he's made it to this point. I don't know if taking out Suzy was the correct call or not, but it seems to be working out for him.

[Wes Anderson]

Do you think Gustave and Oracle should target each other here to clear out their lane at FTC, and pit Richie and Madame against each other fighting for the other votes?

As impressive as some of Richie's moves have been, I think he'd lose to Madame D.  Maybe everyone would and letting her come at all should be avoided.

[Captain Sharp]

i feel oracle's pain of seeming like its an unwinnable ftc, thats what happens when you get F3's

[Wes Anderson]

I'm thinking you cut Madame and hope for the best, if you’re Oracle (Gustave would probably be better suited taking Oracle out?).  Richie has Royal, Writer, and Margot probably in the bag but a lot of other people kind of dislike him.  It may not be unwinnable at all, especially if Richie comes off too arrogant at FTC.  Herman and Suzy are Oracle votes imo, maybe Duke too!  That's 3-3... Peter and Buckley are wild cards.  I guess Madame likely goes Richie.

[Captain Sharp]

for sure, its an interesting round and interesting to see which way FTC will go

[Anthony Adams]

Specs go talk to Oracle for me, please :P

[Brendan]

So it does seem like Madame will probably be the boot here. I could see it flipping around though. Oracle and Gustave both seem somewhat ambivalent because they feel they lose either way, which is probably correct. Strategically, I do think Madame is probably the better choice.

[Captain Sharp]

basically just pray that richie flames out at ftc

[Brendan]

basically just pray that richie flames out at ftc

Yup that's my only hope. Although if you still have more than twice my amount, you could still block that.

[Brendan]

I actually really want Richie to win. This feels like his season. So if I'm betting against him at FTC, then even if he loses I can still be happy.

[Captain Sharp]

idk what you're talking about betting. But yeah I do hope richie wins, he is cool.

[Wes Anderson]

Richie has won immunity (tied Oracle's score in less than half the time)

Oracle seemed to be wavering on who to bring to the end so this will lock him in on I think his better option.  I don't think this is over, although Richie is the favorite

[Wes Anderson]

i guess that's the end of madame's magically blessed game though.

[Brendan]

I'm so happy for Richie. Bring it home!

I agree that Richie is Oracle's better option, but he has an uphill battle either way.

[Captain Sharp]

Hard to say what madame could have done differently here other than win immunity. Not sure if some previous round could have changed to get her better options.

[Wes Anderson]

She could've not voted out Margot behind Richie's back.  If not for that, Richie/Suzy/Madame are still a committed F3, according to their confessionals.  She could've even still voted out Margot, just had to do it a little more smoothly.  As soon as she did that though, her odds of making FTC looked extremely long and there was no way she should get there without immunity unless people were seriously misjudging how likable she was.

But also it was bad luck that Richie of all people was the one to win here, otherwise she had a fighting chance still.

[Wes Anderson]

looks like oracle is exploring the idea of cutting gustave and going for a 3-3-3 with madame and richie.  idk that that's better than just facing one of them but it's worth thinking about.

[Captain Sharp]

bleh, he could just get totally tossed aside as the f3 becomes a 1v1 in that case. but what do i know.

[Mr. Henry]

i think there's absolutely a case to be made for doing that and it's something players maybe don't consider enough.

plus, i'm all for any outcome where we get an epic madame vs richie ftc showdown

[Brendan]

Hard to say what madame could have done differently here other than win immunity. Not sure if some previous round could have changed to get her better options.

Not cut Margot. That was her mistake. Her F3 with Richie and Suzy was solid as long as they had Margot to cut at 4, and even if they cut Margot earlier, if Richie was included he wouldn't have idoled out Suzy. She mishandled that round and it's probably going to cost her the game, because it put her in a situation where likely only one of her/Richie was making it to the end.

[Wes Anderson]

Funny that Richie has Margot cut against his will and then is able to win the last two IC after she’s gone. I think you can use that against him, like look, one of the reasons youre here is because of a move you hated so much you rage idoled out one of your best friends in the game

[Captain Sharp]

Hard to say what madame could have done differently here other than win immunity. Not sure if some previous round could have changed to get her better options.

Not cut Margot. That was her mistake. Her F3 with Richie and Suzy was solid as long as they had Margot to cut at 4, and even if they cut Margot earlier, if Richie was included he wouldn't have idoled out Suzy. She mishandled that round and it's probably going to cost her the game, because it put her in a situation where likely only one of her/Richie was making it to the end.

that's fair.

[Brendan]

Funny that Richie has Margot cut against his will and then is able to win the last two IC after she’s gone. I think you can use that against him, like look, one of the reasons youre here is because of a move you hated so much you rage idoled out one of your best friends in the game

I mean to be fair, he only really needed the final Immunity win. He had an idol at 5. But yeah, that is a very good point. I also think that idoling out Suzy was a misstep and probably will cost him a few votes because it seems like such a spiteful, emotional move, but I don't know that it will be enough to cost him the win unless he's against Madame.