Round 11 Discussion

[Brendan]

Yeah Richie winning this Immunity was absolutely critical. And he's such a smart player capable of reevaluating his position and changing course. I love him so much.

I want Richie and Madame D. to destroy all of these people.

[Captain Sharp]

rooting for ROCKS to take out exactly duke because imagine how chaotic the game would get

[Mr. Henry]

So.... Right now I'm trying to save Gustave. Is that a good idea? Maybe? I'm not sure. My hope is that if I can actually take out Royal, then I cut down numbers on the side of the game I'm least connected to. Sure, Royal and I have a 'pact' to keep the votes off each other, and Richie and I have talked about working together but... definitely do not feel as comfortable with them as I do with every single other person on the tribe. I think those two are still the most likely players to target me, even if M. Gustave went home this round.

Issue - there are four votes solidly on Gustave. Margot, Madame, Richie, Royal. And none have any chance to shift, I think. So at best we're going to a tie vote in a situation where all the people I'm okay with going out here are immune to rocks and I'm at risk.

Solution - I know Madame and Margot are solidly on Gustave, and will not voluntarily go to Royal. So, I've made my thought process clear - why I want Royal out - and I've pitched to them that they do their thing, they let me do my thing, I'll push a Royal vote, and I'll focus primarily on getting votes off Margot in order to do so. What player would say no to someone offering to push the vote away from you, even if you thought it was the minority vote? Of course Margot was 100% happy with this.
The plan is that if it ties, then I can leverage this to get them to flip - 'I kept you informed all the way, I helped you out in doing this, and I'm still 100% on your side going forward regardless of the outcome here'. I don't think someone would risk going to rocks when the people they're going to rocks against are working with them.

it's like i don't even know who you are anymore!

[Foxy Fox]

I haven't heard my name come up yet and I'm seriously worried that I'm not going to get any votes and that would be so disappointing!!

Do we need to bring Fox back in?

PLEASE I'D APPRECIATE THAT <3

[Brendan]

Suzy getting rocked out would be very narratively satisfying because she's the one who has been most apprehensive. But Duke getting rocked out would also be dramatic.

Margot and Madame D. must not draw the bad rocks! That would be such a sad end to their stories, plus I fear that it would make these last few rounds pretty straightforward unless Oracle realizes that Suzy, Gustave and Duke do not plan to take him to the end, actually.

[Foxy Fox]

To answer the confessional prompt as well - yes I like rocks. Rocks taste good

[Wes Anderson]

Oracle makes the most sense narratively to get rocked since he's been angling for rocks the hardest.

[Wes Anderson]

Rocks is cool so I'm mostly pulling for it but also I don't want to be responsible for rng'ing someone out of the game!!!

[Brendan]

Oracle makes the most sense narratively to get rocked since he's been angling for rocks the hardest.

That's true, but I think rocks is the easy way out of this game for him. I want him to make it to FTC and to see if he can convince these people to vote for him.

[Captain Sharp]

Rocks is cool so I'm mostly pulling for it but also I don't want to be responsible for rng'ing someone out of the game!!!

You ARE going to be doing it like a live twitter event right?

[Wes Anderson]

I think we'll move to youtube so I can share my screen on random.org.

Not sure if I can pull together another costume for it.  We'll see if it even happens!

[Brendan]

Oracle's perception of Royal is so bizarre. Like he's mad at Madame for "sitting on Royal's dick"? And he thinks Royal and Richie are running the game? And Royal 100% beats him in the end? Maybe we're just not seeing Royal's game, but I was under the impression that most people saw Royal and Duke as endgame goats.

[Wes Anderson]

With Suzy flipping, is Richie’s plan to counter flip going to become reality? Does that plan actually make any sense? The guaranteed Gustave boot seems way better than rolling the dice hoping to hit Oracle/Duke and risking allies. Plus everyone will suspect him and be more mad at him then ever. It would definitely be a good popcorn and fireworks move though.

[Captain Sharp]

yeah the intelligent move is just let #vanhoe fold on itself yet again... but imagine if you rocks....

[Captain Sharp]

also the sides aren't really even in the sense that #vanhoe could realistically pagong richie-rushmore under the excuse of "bigthreats" (if royal was to go here), but if gustave goes, richie-rushmore won't pagong #vanhoe because they will all want to cut each other before the end. Not sure if suzy knows this, but I think letting someone from #vanhoe take the fall before her is not terrible? Especially with royal still in the game.

[Brendan]

I agree with you, and Duke seems cognizant of that as well, but Suzy loses so much respect and goodwill by flipping that I'm really not sure it's her best move. But the attitude that side has of their game being screwed if they lose seems bizarre to me. It's Madame, Margot and Richie who have everything to lose, because they actually will be picked off one by one if Royal goes here, so of course they aren't going to flip. It was unreasonable to expect them to.

At this point, I do think Suzy should force rocks. I think her Jury chances take a huge hit if she doesn't.

[Brendan]

Anyway I'm sad if we don't get rocks, but Gustave going is good for the endgame, and it should set us up for an exciting path to the finish.

[Captain Sharp]

Very interested to see if any of richi/margot/madame can make it to endgame.

[Captain Sharp]

On the other hand, this seems like it really opens things up for oracle, who can now take gustave's spot.

[Brendan]

Richie, Margot, and Madame need to stick together for at least one-two more rounds. If they can do that, one of them probably wins this game. If they can't, then they all lose barring some lucky Immunities.

Oracle is going to be so annoyed and complain so much if Gustave goes, but I agree, this has the potential to be amazing for him. Although I do think he is in more short-term danger and might be the next boot, his long-term odds of winning go way up.

[Atari Kobayashi]

Hi, what should I do to catch up on?

[Brendan]

You can read bippy's great home theater posts which recap every round of the game!

[Brendan]

Rn, if Gustave does go, I think the most likely boot order if the game is left to its own momentum is:

7: Oracle
6: Margot
5: Richie or Madame
4: Richie or Madame (or Suzy if one of them wins Immunity)
F3: Duke, Royal, Suzy (or Richie or Madame if one of them won Immunity)

So given that, maybe Suzy is making the right call, since I do see her coming in as the favorite against Royal and Duke, though FTC absolutely would be critical there.

But if Madame, Margot and Richie can hold it together for a little bit longer, then they could force one of themselves to be at the end.

Also Royal should really be stabbing them probably but I doubt he will.

[Wes Anderson]

You can read bippy's great home theater posts which recap every round of the game!

Or just read the last two episodes or so to get the current state of play absorbed! Then you can read the early stuff later if you want the full ride.

[Wes Anderson]

Sad way to end the round and I hope Duke will be okay. The only silver lining is we as viewers know that “side” of the vote was primed to lose so it’s not a massive game changer. I do think Duke had winner potential.