Margot's Conspiracy Board

[Margot Tenenbaum]

It's just gonna be hard to keep Royal in the game for that long I think

[Margot Tenenbaum]

Yeah, I think there was also just mass confusion that round between everyone. I do feel like I'm being set up to take a fall though and I would like to get ahead of that narrative.

I never got to know Buckley! I think that would've also helped maybe more than 4 of Rushmore to get to the merge too. I'm always interested in talking to the mods after about what worked and what didn't.

I think Richie is still struggling to shake off the association with Writer and everything Writer was doing with Peter etc. Most people who have gone home now have been attached to that in some capacity, starting with Sam..... I don't think Gustave/Duke particularly trust him and don't see him as very malleable. To me, Richie is saying he's a valuable Ivanhoe since Herman was booted and we could remain 5 strong to avoid rocks. He just seems a bit panicked (I don't blame him) but it makes him seem so much less trustworthy to hear that he's trying to say whatever to whoever will listen.

I just want to say this upfront and to everyone. I am sooooo not interested in trying to push Madame for the 3rd time. I just need a break from that for my own sanity.

Yeah that's definitely Herman. He got really upset that I flipped and wasn't willing to go to rocks. He was saying that that move cost him the game which I don't think is a correct interpretation at all. You/Madame targeting him did not seem because he didn't flip or what not but because you were fed up at him not talking to you. Even though we had a lot of options, he still really wanted to stick by Writer even when he was suspicious.

I agree about Royal too but I don't know him as well as Herman so we'll see!

[Margot Tenenbaum]

Okay I just told Suzy that I recognize Madame as a threat but feel kinda stuck because without her I’m dead

I want her to think she needs me as a vote to get Madame out before FTC

Which like is true

Now this could be risky and spell the end of my run if word spreads too much

But like, I have to do something

I cannot let myself be in a situation where one missed immunity win means I’m dead

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I'm probably underestimating Royal

maybe Duke and Oracle is a better F3

[Margot Tenenbaum]

also maybe I just go with Madame to the end (or try to) and try to make my case that uh without me she wouldn't be alive like 10 times over

[Margot Tenenbaum]

Yeah, I’ve heard a little bit from everyone now and it sounds like there was a lot of finger pointing in general but also that it was the sort of thing that was just going to “happen” but then just as easily fell apart. I don’t really think you’re in a ring leader position here because if that was the case I don’t think everyone would have panicked and Richie wouldn’t be whispering in my ear right now.

Also, yeah I don’t trust Richie as far as I can proverbially throw him (I have no upper body strength). I’m sure while he’s whispering in my ear he’s also telling other people about how I need to be taken out the second I fail at immunity

About Madame, I do understand why she’s become such a target. I’ll tell you this because you’re probably the one person in this game I trust to not deliberately spread around information maliciously, but like I do recognize Madame as a threat. I sort of have a feeling that if anyone goes up against her in an FTC they’re gonna get destroyed. I mean my read could totally be wrong but I’m my experience juries tend to love overcoming *adversity* in their winners and Madame has done nothing but maneuver herself out of near elimination time and time again. I also think a lot of people underestimate her social game, as even Oracle and Duke seem pretty loyal to her (well less sure about Oracle) and I’m not really sure when or how that happened.

At the same time, I feel like as soon as Madame goes, all eyes are gonna turn to me and that’s really a situation I’d like to avoid. So I feel kinda stuck in a position where I wanna keep her around for as long as possible but also that means I probably lose.

As far as next round goes, I feel like things are going to default towards Richie, but I guess it depends on how immunity shakes out.

I do feel for Herman, but you definitely did not cost him the game. I think if you don’t really talk to people except for the people you’re most loyal to, you can’t really expect to win the game.

[Margot Tenenbaum]

Yeah I'm still not sure what happened for everyone to decide not to vote her. I do suspect Duke and Oracle have something going with her that I'm not involved in.

She has such a compelling story!!!! And she's so nice. Lol. Like unless she suddenly flips out and is super mean going forward, I really don't anticipate how anyone can beat her. I do get what you're saying about if she goes, eyes are on you. This game has seemed a little cursed in that aspect, like how 4 people all went home basically for the same incident.

Richie is indeed telling me that we all need to come united to take you out if you don't win immunity here. I think you are very legitimate threat though for the end and I wouldn't count yourself out even if you are sitting next to Madame.

I'm still really unsure of what direction is the best to go in too. The outmaneuver part of Survivor is not my strongsuit!

this is NOT what I want to hear.

NO "oh Margot but you're such a big threat"

I want to hear "yes margot Madame is a big threat and I need to keep you alive so that you will vote with me also you are so beautiful and intelligent"

[Margot Tenenbaum]

well shit this might be the end of the game for me god damn it

[Margot Tenenbaum]

this is disheartening

[Margot Tenenbaum]

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I guess this is the real test of whether I can trust all of Madame + Oracle + Duke + Royal

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I wouldn't really blame any of them for trying to take me out here

also Richie

The Tenenbaum sibs on top of the Eli Cash challenge!  I love how thematically appropriate that was.

Oracle is kind of a sneaky sneak out here befriending everyone.  Like you said way back at the beginning of the merge, Mr. Popular.  But at least by now I hope people are seeing through it (except maybe Duke).

Yeah, that's kind of an unavoidable side effect of going on a win streak.  But between you and me, I hope they let their guard down with you not being immune.  We need to break up that Every Ivanhoe Except Richie alliance that picked up Herman last round and almost sniped Madame D.

cmon, really?

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I mean for sure if I had it I would have been trying to draw all the votes and get him out that way, so in another timeline he could have even been right.  A timeline where I can quickly and accurately count drawers behind a man fixing a bicycle or whatever that was.

I know you're hearing from literally everyone that I've been saying you're a big challenge threat and whatnot, but I'm not a valid target for you right now so I think we should be working together here.  I literally haven't been able to safely say anything to anyone for like three rounds already because it all just gets insta leaked.  Saying something really stupidly obvious like "this person has won all the challenges wow challenge threat" was the only thing I felt like I could say that wouldn't generate even more heat than I already had, since I figured I haven't been at the top of your friends list lately anyway.  I tried to have a theory based discussion with Oracle about like, him being seen with a pair with Duke and why that was getting worse for him and he just responded with yeah duh Survivor 101 and basically called me an idiot, and then we didn't talk for 24 hours.

On the subject of the heat that was on me, an honest thank you for choosing to keep your focus on Herman and not me last round in spite of the fact that I've been repeatedly bringing up your challenge prowess.  I owe you one for that.

I want to get Gustave or Oracle out.  I think Oracle is more dangerous than Gustave because he's better at being in everyone's ear and he's got Duke in his pocket.  I would appreciate if you don't just turn around and tell both of them I said something this specific about them, but I can't really blame you if you do.  But think about it first, because you may just agree with me that it would be a good outcome for you too.

Your brother,
Richie

[Margot Tenenbaum]

honestly, it's probably a smart play by richie to not vote me out

we're acting as mutual shields for each other in a way which is uhhhh cool? man this game is so intense actually

[Margot Tenenbaum]

and thank god richie is smart because it means I actually have a chance here yeehaw

[Margot Tenenbaum]

an oracle boot this round would be...
interesting

I would not oppose it?????

we shall see

[Margot Tenenbaum]

this game is COMPETITIVE

[Margot Tenenbaum]

oh duke duke duke

could I trust you if I said maybe I wanted to go oracle this round?

[Brendan]

Are you willing to draw a rock here? And if so, how are you coming to terms with the fact that it could be you going home?

[Brendan]

Also can you explain why Gustave was your initial target?

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I was willing to draw rocks, as I felt getting rid of Royal would have been directly damaging to my game.

Gustave was my initial target because he was going after me and his removal seemed to keep the most tension in the game (with Oracle/Richie still being at odds).

Now, I find myself voting for Royal simply because... it seems fairer to vote him out than anyone else who is actually present. I also have a new mutually assured destruction type alliance going with Madame D./Suzy/Richie

[Brendan]

Are you worried that we could see another tie now at F6, or do you think you've done enough to prevent that?

[Brendan]

What is your plan of attack Margot? Who do you think is the best target for you this round?

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I think if there's another tie, we win it, not only because we have Richie on my side but because Suzy would be on the other side.

However, I don't think there will be another tie. The odds for rocks are even worse now and Suzy has shown she wants to avoid another tie at all costs. She also went to the trouble of making a group with Richie/Madame/me this round and I don't think she would do that if she was going to turn around and betray us.

Whether Oracle or Gustave goes this round functionally does not matter. Both want me out, both occupy about the same space in my mind.

I am happy to work with this four person group Suzy created to the end. We're all serious threats, yes, but at least in the case of Richie and Suzy, we have such different games that I feel very comfortable going into an FTC with them. Banding together feels like it makes the most strategical sense for both of us to make it to an FTC.

[Margot Tenenbaum]

I guess I'll wait until the game is over to do a full retrospective. In the short term I'm just hurting from the blindside and really questioning the strategical soundness of that move.

It's all confounded by the fact that I feel much more proud of my play here than last game, and yet I got one place farther last game. Which really kinda messes with my head because last game I immediately and intuitively understood how my play could have been improved and what I did wrong. Here, it's a lot less clear to me what my fatal mistakes were.

Hopefully time will make things more clear.