You are quite self aware enough to recognize what would make you a shield. I understand it's a very difficult thing to tone down when it is your nature. But it is only a curse if you allow it to become your ruin even in your awareness.
Analyzing your jury threat is only one small part of what makes someone a "threat" to the players still within the game. Not only are you very social and a strong PMer, you've been clearly identified by everyone as THE strongest PMer. On top of that you've managed to maintain your character in a way that hasn't rubbed anyone the wrong way, no small feat in itself. It is the thing that has made you so successful up to this point, but it is the most difficult thing of all to correctly predict the moment it will become the millstone around your neck.
I do agree that the first few jurors aren't automatic gets for you, but it's very hard to say who will vote emotionally as a juror and who will respect game play even when it came at their expense. None of them are out of your reach, though clearly a player who expressed an emotion like disdain will be tough to talk around.
Now, what would I do in your position? You would defeat Judy, which makes her an attractive person for you to go to the end with, but she is clearly smart enough to know that too and that makes it far too dangerous to have as your primary goal. There is absolutely no way Lennie will go to the end with you, that is not the kind of player he is. Jake might have enough ego to believe he can beat you, and is likely the only person within your majority who would consider going to the end with you in any real way. Leon is Lennie and Jake's creature, and he'll cut you without batting an eye. In truth, if I were you I would be looking at my options outside the majority in either this round or the next. By six you lose all leverage and no longer hold your fate in your own hands. Maybe you have the kind of relationship with Judy where you can honestly rely on her to take you to the end despite anything everyone would say to her about it being a losing proposition, but barring that you need to take a chance with one or more of the outsiders. Any path you can forge to the end leaves you with a real chance to win. Winner equity as you put it. You should not attempt to get anywhere near the end with quote unquote goats, because that is only willingly giving up your seat to those same goats if someone else can either convince them to cut you or simply the wrong person wins final immunity and takes the goats for themselves. You have to lean into your position as the strong social player and rely on yourself to have a winning FTC performance.
I am not averse to sitting next to you. I believe we mostly compete for different jury votes, although no doubt you would enter the FTC as the favorite. But as I likely enter any FTC as the underdog I am in a position of simply working towards any FTC I can get to. As you imply, I first have to get myself out of my current position where I'm in imminent danger. I don't believe I am a goat, which makes me a good person for you to have around at 5 and 4 where other people could target me instead of you because I'm not drawing completely dead.
'E ees good. 'E 'as me thinking. I'm 'aving a leetle regret about cutting M. Grouch tbh, because I think M. Grouch was ze worst at challenges and potentially ze best to bring to four, but I wasn't thinking about zat at ze time. M. Cohle ees probably ze next best option though in zat regard? But I also think 'e ees probably ze biggest Jury threat of ze three, but maybe zat suits me. I'm not convinced zat I don't want 'im in fourth place either.
Mlle Hopps...she did proactively suggest a final two to me, and especially with M. McGruff giving 'er confidence, I think she might actually take me.
M. Briscoe 'as been my partner zis whole time, and I 'ave always imagined us in ze end together, and I think 'e wants eet to. I don't 'e would do eet based on loyalty, but 'e might based on if 'e thinks eet ees actually 'is smartest choice i.e. if ze other option ees a member of ze current minority. I just asked 'im 'ow 'e wants to proceed 'ere, if we're just picking off all three minority members or what. Let's see 'ow 'e responds.
M. Kennedy and M. Peralta are both on ze table as potential goats. M. Peralta 'as ze benefit of maybe wanting to actually take me, but ees probably less of a goat. In a lot of ways, 'e 'as defined zis merge with 'is idol play. I think I could out-FTC 'im though. M. Kennedy, I really don't see 'im winning. I think 'e ees loyal to me in particular, but I'm aware zat I could be mistaken, and I don't know zat I trust eet enough to actually bank on 'im. Plus even if 'e ees, 'e ees not going to be ze one making ze choice because 'e will never win a challenge. 'E might increase my chances of winning ze FTC in zat way if zat ees what I need to do, but I don't 'ave enough faith in my ability regardless, and I might need to be fighting someone else.
Mlle Garcia, I am considering as an option. She ees too good at challenges though, zat ees 'er fatal flaw. If she was worse, I think she would be perfect, because she actually sees M. Peralta and M. Briscoe as bigger Jury threats zan me, unlike M. Cohle.
Zis vote really matters
maintenant, even if eet ees just picking someone off, because whoever ees left as ze pieces who might be going late into ze game with me. I think my ideal boot ees M. Morningstar, followed by Mlle Garcia, followed by M. Cohle. Ze only advantage of keeping M. Morningstar ees zat I think Mlle Garcia and M. Cohle are more likely Jury votes for me and 'e ees probably ze easiest to beat if I am taking 'im to ze end. Actually zose are some sizeable advantages. I think M. Morningstar could easily vote for me too. Honestly all three of ze minority would, which ees why eet ees probably best if ze last one left standing gets fourth place.
I also need to be careful not to give to much to ze minority zat can be used against me, because I do feel ze urge to do zat, but I can easily write eet off as lies. I think even the minority zemselves realize zat M. Kennedy, M. Briscoe, M. Peralta ees a bigger immediate problem zan Mlle Hopps and I, which ees another 'uge positive of zis move. But if zey see a path to stay with zem and not with me, zen zey'd probably do whatever zey 'ad to in order to survive.
