Episode 18: Soar Loser

[Princess Celestia]

Now everypony is working a safety net of items.  If Pear/Soarin/Rarity don't vote Coco out here I think she wins the game.

CELESTIANOTE: THE EPISODE TITLE IS A PUN AND I DO NOT THINK SOARIN IS A SORE LOSER AT ALL BUT I GOTTA HAVE MY PUNS

[Princess Cadance]

So pear needs to be immune then.

[Princess Cadance]

And rarity has to work with soarin...yeah...coco just wins

[Filthy Rich]

I think Granny's at least considered getting rid of Coco this round. So they just need to convince one person. Which would probably be Pear? I don't see Rarity turning on Coco.

[Princess Luna]

either granny/soarin/pear come together or coco wins

[Fluttershy]

Hopefully they come together! I'm rooting for somepony who is in that three (but it's a mystery which one)

And there's a firemaking twist coming up too! Wow the first time in MS history. It's going to be exciting. I wonder what challenge was picked? Hopefully not hive again

What are the odds that Pear is suddenly loved at final tribal after being seen as a goat?

[Florina Tart]

Hopefully they come together! I'm rooting for somepony who is in that three (but it's a mystery which one)

And there's a firemaking twist coming up too! Wow the first time in MS history. It's going to be exciting. I wonder what challenge was picked? Hopefully not hive again

What are the odds that Pear is suddenly loved at final tribal after being seen as a goat?

Onitama, that's been public info since school of friendship was over

[Flim and Flam]

Hopefully they come together! I'm rooting for somepony who is in that three (but it's a mystery which one)

And there's a firemaking twist coming up too! Wow the first time in MS history. It's going to be exciting. I wonder what challenge was picked? Hopefully not hive again

What are the odds that Pear is suddenly loved at final tribal after being seen as a goat?

I had a long post but decided it was better to just say "very low".

Last game had a "goat" win but the circumstances and competition were very different.

[Aquaburst]

It's fascinating the way people seem so hesitant to commit to taking out Coco. I don't have a confident jury read but going by confessional writing at least she seems like a pretty big threat at the moment.

I'd want her out for sure!

[Thorax]

I want to do this challenge But I know there's almost no chance of me having got this far if I'd managed to survive wonderbolts. DJ would have wanted me out too much.
I'm going to do it anyway, obviously not valid because I've already viewed rarity's entry (and stolen some ideas from it, and then adjusted so I'm not only improving her chains where possible, but I know I've ensured all of them are at least equal to her entries. (only word I feel I directly stole was sees into seek (I couldn't work out any other way of getting there), and any other words from slow are just too slow, I rid myself of the poop that came went I stole goop.

Spoiler

Turn HEAD into TAIL.

HEAD
HEAL
TEAL
TELL
TALL
TAIL

Turn HARD into EASY.

HARD
HART
FART
FAST
EAST
EASY

Turn HIDE into SEEK.

HIDE
SIDE
SITE
SITS
SETS
SEES
SEEK

Turn TEARS into SMILE.

TEARS
REARS
ROARS
SOARS
STARS
STARE
STALE 
STILE
SMILE

(this is obviously faster if you go from tears - sears - stars, but I wasn't stealing directly from Rarity)

Turn SLOW into FAST.

SLOW
SLOT
SOOT
LOOT
LOST
LAST
FAST

Turn GOOD to POOR to RICH

GOOD
MOOD
MOOR
POOR
POOT
SOOT
SOOK
SOCK
ROCK
RICK
RICH

(not the definition I was expecting to find for sook, but the fact it was in there is enough for me, poot & rick were also ones I checked)

Turn WEAK to FIRM to SOFT

WEAK
WEAN
LEAN
LOAN
LOAM
FOAM
FORM
FIRM
FORM
FORT
SORT
SOFT

[close]

[Princess Celestia]

Granny wants to turn on Coco!  A lot is riding on this immunity for Coco.

[Flurry Heart]

This challenge is hard to judge at a glance, but Coco's answer looks pretty solid. I think she's got a good shot at getting immunity.

[Princess Celestia]

Current scores are Coco 40, Granny 44, and Rarity 68.

If future mods want to run this challenge in a game maybe throw in a rule about obsolete chiefly British alternate spellings of other obsolete words.

[Princess Luna]

it was nice of us to rig this entire season for coco pommel just like Ghost Island

[Princess Luna]

Coco didn't even try last challenge, she was getting about double what she actually submitted as a score. (Soarin would have won anyways!)
I hope at FTC somepony brings up they had all the tools to bring her down and just didn't. It sucks to see people calling Coco ruthless though, its p clear that Coco's social game is super on point to the point her allies are like 'guess coco wins yaaaay'

[Suri Polomare]

Coco didn't even try last challenge, she was getting about double what she actually submitted as a score. (Soarin would have won anyways!)
I hope at FTC somepony brings up they had all the tools to bring her down and just didn't. It sucks to see people calling Coco ruthless though, its p clear that Coco's social game is super on point to the point her allies are like 'guess coco wins yaaaay'

[Thorax]

Current scores are Coco 40, Granny 44, and Rarity 68.

If future mods want to run this challenge in a game maybe throw in a rule about obsolete chiefly British alternate spellings of other obsolete words.

I decided those didn't count while I was looking through the words, as this rule does need to exist.

[Thorax]

Coco didn't even try last challenge, she was getting about double what she actually submitted as a score. (Soarin would have won anyways!)
I hope at FTC somepony brings up they had all the tools to bring her down and just didn't. It sucks to see people calling Coco ruthless though, its p clear that Coco's social game is super on point to the point her allies are like 'guess coco wins yaaaay'

EoE Spoiler

Who is going to give up immunity to take out Coco in fire making?

[close]

I figured that was likely the case, saving the ID spoiling from being good at flash games. (I assume she also did the horseshoe throw deliberately slowly as well)

[Flim and Flam]

EoE Spoiler

Who is going to give up immunity to take out Coco in fire making?

[close]

EoE Spoiler

I bet quite a few players this game imagined doing that to have a final big move. But now if anypony does it, it will look like they're ripping off Chris xD and probably not gain as much respect.

On a side note, I hope the show cancels the firemaking twist now. There's nothing really that can top what happened that season with it.

[close]

[Apple Dumpling]

People like grand pear who just say "I don't care if X played a better game then me I want to take them to FTC anyways"
... why do they exist again?

[Princess Celestia]

I'm sad that Soarin is using the phrasing "IF I ever play again". Soarin, you've been doing fine. Play again.

[Flurry Heart]

People like grand pear who just say "I don't care if X played a better game then me I want to take them to FTC anyways"
... why do they exist again?

Look, somepony has to be a goat.

[Discord]

I don't care if Coco wins this game and I get 0 votes tbh. At least Coco had my back the entire game.

PSA saying stuff like this makes it really hard to justify casting you in a game over people who actually want to be there. This is nothing against Grand Pear as a person but I don't think they're in a good headspace for a competitive game like this right now

[Thorax]

I'm sad that Soarin is using the phrasing "IF I ever play again". Soarin, you've been doing fine. Play again.

I am worried that he's got the wrong idea of why he feels he's game lacked favor.

I think anything like that now is that they know they've all let Coco reach the end as the biggest threat. Well besides the goats they tried and failed to kill.
The only real attempt at getting rid of Coco was from Derpy, and that failed because it was too early.

But as i said two episodes ago, this game was decided when everypony followed Coco into getting rid of Chrysalis.
Although I'd like Coco to somehow lose the firemaking challenge, I don't think that's going to happen.

[Flurry Heart]

Even if Coco loses firemaking, I think Granny will be the only pony to eliminate Coco. Pear and Rarity both seem fine bringing Coco with them into F3.

4) How confident are you that you can sell a jury on your game?
Fairly confident? I've avoided heat most of the game, made some big moves, and generally directed the game in a favorable way. I've also had a few triumphs that I can sell as me being flexible and surviving, and I even used an item to make another #bigmove.

Oh Rarity, the only item you used was a double vote against DJ who already had an overwhelming majority. Your #bigmove barely registered.

Now if you had used a combination of your items to knock out Coco, that would have been a proper #bigmove.

[Flim and Flam]

Prayers for Soarin

[Princess Luna]

Soarin is a dead man walking. ;-; Soarin you were my sleeper draft pick because I thought you had it in you, you should play again every time! I think you're wonderful. <3
Also you probably would have won at ftc against rarity/pear + i think you had a decent chance against granny as a passive person vs a beloved underdog

I honestly hope Rarity wins the FIC and takes Coco because that would make me laugh the hardest

[Thorax]

Soarin actually goes out pretty much in the same way as rainbow, playing too big the previous round.

but with Coco winning that immunity, Pear and rarity are voting Soarin (probably would have been anyway), and Coco knows Soarin is the one most likely to defeat her if it came to the firemaking challenge from the practice she's been doing, so that's a majority anyway even if Soarin could convince Granny to go after pear/rarity. (and soarin's pleas to rarity to take granny out last round aren't going to work this time either)

[Iron Will]

I don't care if Coco wins this game and I get 0 votes tbh. At least Coco had my back the entire game.

PSA saying stuff like this makes it really hard to justify casting you in a game over people who actually want to be there. This is nothing against Grand Pear as a person but I don't think they're in a good headspace for a competitive game like this right now

Isn’t it normal to get some players who care about who was good to them, and aren’t interested in slashing that person’s throat? It’s not really much worse than Rarity tunneling on Soarin for trying to push a different vote last round.

[Suri Polomare]

Soarin' did great, they just need to...take things less personally? Tbf rarity is guilty of the exact same thing. But soarin' has some strategic nouse, good instincts and a decent enough social game.

I also think there's something to be said for going to the end with somepony you like and respect. This is a social game!

[Filthy Rich]

Pear has just given up though. DJ, Soarin and Granny all overestimated how easy it would be to get Coco out, and Rarity underestimated Coco, but they were all playing to win.

But Pear said that he's fine getting zero votes to somepony who had him as like their #5 ally.

[Suri Polomare]

I do agree that is a massive issue. You do still need to play to win. I guess in my ideal situation you've done enough to know you'll earn votes even against a liked and respected opponent because you have been playing to win! Which...yeah, doesn't seem to be the case.

[Aquaburst]

Pear's tone has been plumetting for a while. I know the headspace they're in and it's an awful feeling being a goat but MAN I hope they come out of it. I wanna give them a hug.

I'd be fine seeing a Coco win too except that it just feels super inevitable. Low key I think I'm still rooting for Granny. Idk I just like the cut of their jib

[Apple Dumpling]

Being seen as a goat doesn't mean you lose. There's a correct way to play as a "goat".

hint hint, game that recently ended.

[Suri Polomare]

if he got Coco out, there's an argument he could make that he did what he needed to do - be let the bright flames burn themselves out through over-playing (derpy, rainbow) or by making bad chocies about their allies (DJ), and he got there without really burning/scheming and having his hands clean. It's....a valid arguement, if you can make it well.


But taking coco kinda invalidates that.

[Filthy Rich]

I agree, Suri. I'm not sure if this jury would respect Pear or if Granny would get the credit, but they should respect him. His game would remind me a lot of Wolverine's from Conclave: seen as a goat the whole game until coming out of nowhere to take out the power player at 5. And Wolverine came very close to winning (hopefully this reference isn't too old)

But Coco has immunity and can no longer be voted out so all this is moot, lol.

[Fluttershy]

Things look bleak for Soarin 

[Iron Will]

Granny is on the mark with her most recent confessional, willing to risk her tail to push Rarity into saving Soarin. If Rarity went with it, I think a Soarin/Granny/Rarity f3 is still a tough sell for her, and favors Soarin for winning fire, but they’d all have cases. Unfortunately Rarity seems committed to the idea she can beat Coco. But maybe having Granny + Soarin shouting truth in her ear for a day will sell it.

[Flim and Flam]

Coco decided she wanted Rarity and Pear in the end awhile ago I think. So that's given her a ton of time to create a weaker persona when talking to them so she seems less threatening.

[Iron Will]

I guess I just think you ponies might be taking the offending Grand Potato message too literally. I think he does think he played well and can win, and he’s being told by other ponies in the game he can’t, and that message we’re talking about here is more of a “shut up, I’ve made up my mind” declaration than an actual surrender. Look at this confessional post. This is somepony proud of their game.

Sooooo close to the end. I'm not sure you specs enjoyed my game as much as I did, but I had a great time. Maybe you thought I played a boring game, but it wasn't boring to me, at all. I think I made the right decisions at the right times. I've made the connections I needed to, and those connections kept me around when my enemies tried to vote me out multiple times. I'm not sure if I'm going to have a shot at winning, but I think I do have a story to tell. I've positioned myself in a great way the entire game, I cut down one of my closest allies(Buried Lede), to get closer to the ponies I wanted to play the endgame with, and it worked out in the best way possible. Despite my limited availability, which did hurt me, I'm very aware of that, I've managed to play a game where most people thought I was on the bottom, but at the same time, I had solid connections that kept me around when I was believed to be an easy target, and they all payed for it. Fluttershy(maybe to a lesser extent), Pinkie, Derpy, DJ, they all got voted out while targeting me, and the numbers I had, were Always pretty big!

That's the story I'll bring at FTC, and I hope at least some ponies appreciate that enough to give me their votes.

Buuuut first I'll need to make it there.

[Iron Will]

Will be sad if they finally win over Rarity and vote out Pear, keeping Soarin to slay Coco in Onitama, and then Coco easily wins F4 immunity. lol

[Suri Polomare]

Do we know what the f4 challenge is??

[Iron Will]

Fuck it. Granny's said Rarity might still want to go after Pear but I don't buy Rarity's word for a second, and Coco's probably drilled into everypony's mind that they need to take me out anyhow. I'm going to try and convince Rarity & Pear to go after Granny instead. I have nothing to lose at this point, and if they still decide to vote me after I laid out how much better Granny and Coco's played than them then I'll have no quarrels about voting Granny/Coco over either of them.

Oh god

At least there's a strong argument for why Rarity should pivot against Coco and use Soarin to do it, and that requires winning over Rarity alone
To do this, Soarin needs to win over Rarity AND Pear, and I really see very little in it for either

[Discord]

I agree, Suri. I'm not sure if this jury would respect Pear or if Granny would get the credit, but they should respect him. His game would remind me a lot of Wolverine's from Conclave: seen as a goat the whole game until coming out of nowhere to take out the power player at 5. And Wolverine came very close to winning (hopefully this reference isn't too old)

But Coco has immunity and can no longer be voted out so all this is moot, lol.

I get this reference!

[Princess Celestia]

Do we know what the f4 challenge is??

Not yet!

Lemme see your predictions.

EDIT: I wanted the Endurance Essay but ONE of my comods strongly objected for some reason.

[Suri Polomare]

....soarin' sending essays to the others about how shit they are to get his own way does not sir comfy at all.

[Princess Celestia]

He needs to focus on "I can beat Coco at firemaking".

[Princess Cadance]

I mean....soarin is kind of right that they have their goose cooked at FTC against granny and coco, and like...there isn't really a good way to sell that (even if you go the proper route of building them up instead of going "look we all kind of suck"). And it's kind of their best play atm.

[Flim and Flam]

I don't actually think Soarin's messages were that bad.

[Flim and Flam]

And that seals Soarin's fate.

Rarity is the Rocket goat archetype.
Pear is the Jiggly goat archetype.
Neither are the Tapu goat archetype.
sad

Edit: JK Pear is great and I'm rooting for him to win now

[Iron Will]

I don't actually think Soarin's messages were that bad.

Yeah, Rarity is reading it worse than it really is because she's lining it up with her existing impression of Soarin, who she thinks tries to order her around and talks down to her.  But Soarin isn't just running her down there, he's saying he too cannot possibly beat Coco, and that she, Rarity, can beat himself, Soarin.  So it really doesn't read so bad to me...

I think Rarity's odds are honestly not that different with Soarin or with granny as the third finalist next to Pear, but she should keep Soarin because Soarin has a better shot of knocking out Coco.  Not a huge mistake to boot Soarin here though, the bigger mistake is that she's not yet thinking about gunning for Coco.

[Princess Luna]

I mean at this point the only big move they can make is try to kill Coco at firemaking, which if pear did would run with the CHALLENGE THREAT type he somehow became
I would 100% not be surprised if Coco wins the FIC outright

[Princess Luna]

EDIT: I wanted the Endurance Essay but ONE of my comods strongly objected for some reason.

nopony WANTS THE ENDURANCE ESSAY

[Iron Will]

DJ said Coco was going to win, then got voted out.  Soarin says Coco is going to win, is being voted out.  Granny also currently saying Coco is going to win, and seems to be the next target.  Pear and Rarity still don't seem to be getting the hint and are marching into a shutout vote.  It's honestly likely too late for anypony, as I don't expect Coco to lose both the challenge and the fire, especially without Soarin in the game. 

In a normal season, they might vote out Granny next and look really bad, but otoh I figure each of Rarity and Pear, if they win the challenge, would at least know enough to bring the other to the end, so even if they do see Coco in their f3, he'll still have to face Granny in fire.  Maybe she's good at Onitama.  But honestly, kudos to Coco for bringing Rarity and Pear in with such loyalty that everypony else's games are going to be derailed for waiting too long to strike.

[Iron Will]

I could see Rarity or Pear stealing a win against Granny, although it would be a longshot.  But Granny could end up being treated badly at FTC the way Gear was, for being a social player that didn't actually pull anything major off.  DJ is already sowing the seeds for that over in jury.

[Princess Luna]

I feel so hard for Granny right now. I don't think she knew the parasprites and voting Coco last round were even an option. But watching everypony march to either your inevitable demise or yet another FTC slaughter sucks. I don't know which I'd think is worse, I'd rather be DJ/Soarin and die trying. I don't think Granny 100% loses because the earlier jury was anti-Coco, its not a GOOD chance but because they can't just vote Granny out next it's still there.

If they actually manage to get Coco out next, I think Granny's chances are much higher because she was at least willing to try and take out the big threat. Especially if she wins fire and actually does it?

[Apple Dumpling]

Lol @ rarity getting the truth and rejecting it. Perception is reality.

[Iron Will]

maybe Pear will win f4 immunity and then give the necklace to Rarity in order to take on and defeat Coco in fire!  While Granny just sits there shrinking in stature.  That could maybe lead to a bit of a toss-up f3

[Discord]

For what it’s worth, I think this is much more a case of Coco playing extremely well than it is a case of Pear and Rarity playing poorly. She’s very good at wooing people, although it’s a bad look seeing almost half the jury literally tell you “Coco is gonna win” and then doing nothing about it

[Apple Dumpling]

No.. I mean... when you look at rarity's confessional... I just don't see how you can call that good play.