Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[sekinj]

It looks liek we are still waiting for some people to post for the first time?

@chuck: not really understanding how you need MORE detail about the set up...

[iamausername]

Votecount #1!

CF Riot (2) - springlullaby, ChuckNorris
germy (1) - Kairyuu
Nightwolf (1) - mykonian
Kairyuu (1) - Artem

Not Voting (7) - afatchic, alvinz95, CF Riot, Edify, germy, Nightwolf, sekinj

7 to lynch.

[germy]

Why does TTT or TT guarantees five power roles? What if the setup is MMMMTTT - which gives us three masons?

Quite right, my bad. I'm still finding small mistakes like that in my argument. So no, that situation does not guarantee a certain number of power roles.

If so, then my current knowledge of the game setup is 2 "power roles" (including myself), 3 mafia, and a maximum of 7 vanilla townies. If someone else reveals a similar role, then the game setup is 4 "power roles," 3 mafia (1 guaranteed blocker), and a maximum of 5 vanilla townies.

Correct me if I'm wrong but we also have a minimum of 5 vanillas, since only 7 letters are drawn.

Actually, I think the

minimum

might be 1 vanilla. If every other letter drawn results in one power role, then we have 7 power roles, 3 mafia, 1 SK and 1 vanilla townie. For example: CDDVVMM = 0 T: 3 mafia + 1 SK

I'm not entirely sure if I believe germy's claim because it seems all too easy for him to be scum and make a WIFOM argument of "The scum is obviously trying to find full power roles, so they are not interested in night-killing me" to explain his survival of each night.

I don´t want germy to react on the following, but from what I guess, it isn´t the smartest move to NK germy. Also not to lynch him.

That's not really a WIFOM argument, but is actually a plausible explanation. WIFOM is used to justify one's

own

actions, not what actions happen

to them

. I'm a more interesting target, but I think I am just as likely to be killed as not.

If I am killed, I would not be surprised. The mafia might want to kill me as a "confirmed" townie, or for being a power role (despite not being a "full-power" role).

If I survive, I would also not be surprised. The mafia could easily be searching for the "full-power" roles instead, since their chances have actually increased to find one. And as a "dependent role" it's possible that I am either a backup (who is no different than a vanilla townie, at this point) or a one-shot vig (who is no different from a vanilla townie every Night except one): neither case give the mafia much of an incentive to kill me over anyone else.

---

I don't expect anyone to believe me right off the bat: that's fine. Everything that I've revealed will be revealed upon my Night death or lynch, anyway. Because I had more information about the game makeup than other townies, and that information was of marginal use to the mafia, I thought it more important to share that information with the rest of the Town. Those that believe me are at an advantage - those that don't are no worse off than they would otherwise be on Day 1.

[mykonian]

ok, a series of weak things that are in favor of germy:

what scum would try to get all the attention from his first post?
germy didn't in his other game.
germy could think it beneficial to town to say he knows 2 letters. At least.

weak things against germy

rolefishing
semi claim day 1, without pressure.

did I miss something?

[Edify]

Vote: Germy

I appreciate all of the info but come on. You made this game all serious and stuff with your fancy mathematics. I am here to have fun. Take a chill pill, (for now) vote randomly, and watch as people childishly overreact to the random voting.

[sekinj]

Vote: Germy

I appreciate all of the info but come on. You made this game all serious and stuff with your fancy mathematics. I am here to have fun. Take a chill pill, (for now) vote randomly, and watch as people childishly overreact to the random voting.

or we could scumhunt instead...

[springlullaby]

unvote vote sekinj

[mykonian]

Vote: Germy

I appreciate all of the info but come on. You made this game all serious and stuff with your fancy mathematics. I am here to have fun. Take a chill pill, (for now) vote randomly, and watch as people childishly overreact to the random voting.

or we could scumhunt instead...

you are right. Random voting shouldn't be a goal at itself, it is just a way to get the day started. Starting discussion can be done by random voting. to deny there is something to talk about, and random voting is weird. I admit I did random vote, but it is less important then discussion, about whatever small point. So imagine we've just passed the random votes

[mykonian]

springlullaby, why change your vote?

[springlullaby]

Because I didn't like sekinj post.

1. I don't see her walking the walk.
2. I don't see contradiction between scumhunting and random voting.

[afatchic]

okay i like the first post my germy. i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already. and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.i also agree that miller should claim now and it may help catch a scum early on.
i am also a fan of the RVS

so Vote: Kairyuu

[sekinj]

@spring: lol - I'm goign to just chalk that up to a random vote and ignore it.

[sekinj]

I also agree that millers should claim, and that vig should hold off on night 1. However, I don't think anyone else shoudl claim, and we'll see how Day2 goes before I have any other input about the vig

[springlullaby]

@spring: lol - I'm goign to just chalk that up to a random vote and ignore it.

Why the 'lol', what do you find humorous? Do you not agree with what I said?

What would you do if it wasn't a random vote?

It isn't quite.

[springlullaby]

Btw, I find the discussion around the vig disturbing, no doubt because I don't entirely comprehend it.

Please, someone not too lazy and crap a math brainwave me this: in term of setup discovery, is it more helpful for scum or for town to find out if there is a SK/vig.

[alvinz95]

Really don't like how you CLAIMED on page 1. This doesn't mean its scummy, but quite ridiculous actually. You just planted a bullseye on yourself if you are town for a nightkill. To me it seems you're trying to appear very townly with an overkilled beginning post full of stuff that should appear later naturally.

No random vote this time around.

[Nightwolf]

germy, germy, germy...

You keep saying that you believe your information would help the town. However, I do not really see anything that is actually useful. You are giving hints to the game setup, but I only see these as miscellaneous details that do not actually help the town at all.

Which means I know the following information about the game setup that I would like to share with the Town:

• We have a three-person mafia.

One of the most useful things you have said, but still not very useful. It is good to know how many scum there are to know when situations such as Lylo may arise, but chances are that by the time the game gets that far, the information from the dead players roles would have been enough for us to figure this out.

• If we have a serial killer, then they have
  at least
  the DI, BI, and KI abilities.

We already know that if there is a serial killer, it would have DI and BI from username's posts. The only pro-town role that would really benefit from this information is a vig, but it still wouldn't help that much because he or she wouldn't know who the serial killer is to know who would not die from a NK, since there would still be the possibility of a doc.

• I believe it's
  likely
  , though I'm not sure, that we have a mafia blocker.

How does this help at all? If there is a mafia roleblocker and they want to block you, they will. It’s as simple as that. Nothing can stop it unless there is a pro-town roleblocker that happens to choose them. Does knowledge of a mafia roleblocker existing help a pro-town roleblocker to stop him? No. The pro-town rb would naturally choose a person that they find scummy anyway.
It also doesn’t help the rest of the town either since their job is to figure out who is scum and kill them… its not like there are any specific

mafia roleblocker

tells that wouldn’t apply to any other scum member.

My

suggestions

for play throughout the game:

• Any claimed cop should list in the same post each of their investigations and their results, for every previous Night. We will need as much of this information as possible, invaluable especially in the end-game.

Here I pretty much agree. My only problem with this is that I thought it was pretty obvious. And if a person claimed cop and didn’t claim investigations the other members of the town would probably ask for the investigations anyway unless there were special circumstances that would make them decide not to.

• I believe if any other "secondary roles" like mine exist (ie, backup doc, one-shot vig, backup blocker), they should also claim as I have. If we have masons, only one from such a group should claim as I have. Remember, I'm not advocating in any way a role-claim, just whether your role guarantees the existence of other roles in the game. This narrows down the mafia makeup even further without hurting the Town. (For instance, if one other player claims as I have, then we are guaranteed at least four indeterminate "power roles" in the game. Implying we have
  at most
  three vanilla townies, and guaranteeing a mafia blocker.)

No. They should not claim. I can not see how knowing the number of power roles would help the town. Its not like people can tell the power roles what to do since they would have their own decision based on their own opinions. The scum, however, may be able to figure out some sort of strategy based on how many power roles are left and who has claimed to be backups. Also, as has been mentioned already, by doing this you are increasing the odds for the scum to hit an active power role. I do happen to think that a jump from 1 in 4 people to 1 in 3 people is too much of a benefit for scum, especially since I don’t see any use for town. And if the scum are able to kill a power role or two on the first couple nights because they have increased chances, then they could go straight to killing the backups after that without wasting any turns.

Also, your logic seems to be wrong regarding the part you underlined.
Assuming that there are 3 scum like you have stated, we have 12 players – 3 scum = 9 possible town.
Then, if there were 4 power roles in the situation you presented (2 active, 2 backups), there would be 9 – 4 = 5 other players that you would not know about. They could possibly be all vanilla.
Something is definitely off here. Do you know something else somehow that your not telling us?
Also, what is all this vanilla talk for anyway? There is no possible way that that knowledge could be helpful for anyone but scum. Germy even said that himself, yet still seems to stress counts of vanillas by underlining parts of them…

In conclusion, I see this as a very weak claim at a very bad time. You are only saying your role confirms that another one exists and implying that it basically is like a backup one. While it is possible that it is true, it also leaves you plenty of room to figure out what could be a safe claim if you ended up scum. Also, this does not make you a “confirmed” townie in any way, except for a confirmed power of some kind to the scum if you are indeed town. If you are not, then you can easily say that the scum may leave you alone because your power isn’t active yet and they want to kill the active ones.
(I think some of this has been said before, but I agree with it so I’m repeating it.)

The other main problem that I have has pretty much been the theme of this entire post. You keep claiming that you really believe that this is more helpful to the town, while all I see is a bunch of details that really don’t affect the town much at all. In my view it helps the scum much more, especially through the rolefishing others have pointed out which would help scum choose their kills. It looks like it could be an attempt to form a base as town right out of the gate while not actually doing anything useful. It seems you would have thought about this a lot to come up with all of your information about the setup that you originally posted, so you should be able to tell us

at least

one of these ways that it puts “those that believe you at an advantage.” (Use a theoretical situation if necessary)

Vote: germy

Oh, and by the way, I support miller claims right now unless someone knows of a good reason not to.

[Kairyuu]

@Artem: I really don't understand what you mean by my contradicting myself. I did not. If germy is scum, he knows part of the setup already. If he also claims backup power role, and gets other people to do so as well, then he narrows things down even more. Try to actually

think

about whether your argument makes sense before making it.

On a related note, there is no scenario this early in the game where knowing the layout of the power roles helps the town at all. I am extremely surprised that so many of you didn't notice that.

@Germy: I must have misread the part in your first post about the full power roles. I thought you said there were four of them. Sorry about that.

Other than that though, everything I said stands against you. You may consider the 'small increase' in the scums' chance to kill a power role to be negligible, but that chance increases

exponentially

as days go by.

Consider this scenerio. Scum kill the doc N1. Two people (including you) have claimed backup by then. Now, it is likely (though I don't really understand the math) that killing a doc would break the setup for them enough that they will know whether or not the is a nurse. If they can figure it out, N2 will give them a

50% chance

to hit the new doc, as compared to a maximum of 1 in 6 (assuming best case scenerio of no SK or SK kills scum) or worst case scenerio of 1 in 5 (assuming SK kills town). I would have to say that a scenerio like that would

not

be beneficial to the town.

If you are not scum, you have a very poor way of helping the town.

[CF Riot]

Question, what is the down side to a mafioso claiming miller?

----

For those voting Germy: Whether or not the information he has posted benefits the town or scum more is debatable. Nightwolf and Kairyuu's arguments have me leaning towards it hurting the town more than it helps. Let's assume for arguments sake that his info does not help the town in any way. Do you find it more likely that he is scum running a gambit, or town unintentionally harming his teammates?

[afatchic]

Really don't like how you CLAIMED on page 1. This doesn't mean its scummy, but quite ridiculous actually. You just planted a bullseye on yourself if you are town for a nightkill. To me it seems you're trying to appear very townly with an overkilled beginning post full of stuff that should appear later naturally.

No random vote this time around.

not necessarily

i actually like the claim like that, however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, but i still think miller should claim. and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked him because they think its more useful to the scum. all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup, since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles. while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be, i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.

[mykonian]

@All: Question, what is the down side to a mafioso claiming miller? Mykonian asked for a miller claim, which I'm not really for or against, but I was just wondering what keeps the mafia from doing this.

Getting the spotlight on them?

I don't like all the people that jumped on germy, for what is bad town play, but could hardly be a scumtactic. However, the third vote, nightwolf explained himself, so I think he deserves an

unvote nightwolf

. The second vote from Edify wasn't explained to my satisfaction, well Edify kind of wanted it to look like a random vote.

vote Edify

. And Kairyuu was the first one, hardly scum bandwagoning, and provided reasons for his vote.

[sekinj]

@everyone voting germy: Do you really think he is SCUM or do you just think his early claim and directing of the game was un-town?

[Artem]

@Artem: I really don't understand what you mean by my contradicting myself. I did not. If germy is scum, he knows part of the setup already. If he also claims backup power role, and gets other people to do so as well, then he narrows things down even more.

If you are arguing that somebody is narrowing down power role possibilities with their claim, then you are assuming that they are not mafia (since mafia already know their buddy is not a power rule). If you are assuming that they are not mafia, then why would you be voting them? That's the contradiction.

However, as CF Riot explained, it's getting others to claim that helps the narrowing down, in which case, yes, the vote against Germy is well-justified. So,

Unvote

.

since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles

Where does the number 1/4th come from?

[ChuckNorris]

Post 28- I think that it could be a gambit being played. I think that it could be a potentially great move by scum. Or it could just be what he said. I think that WIFOM could be applyed here aswell.

Really don't like how you CLAIMED on page 1. This doesn't mean its scummy, but quite ridiculous actually. You just planted a bullseye on yourself if you are town for a nightkill. To me it seems you're trying to appear very townly with an overkilled beginning post full of stuff that should appear later naturally.

No random vote this time around.

not necessarily

i actually like the claim like that, however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, but i still think miller should claim. and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked him because they think its more useful to the scum. all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup, since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles. while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be, i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.

I agree with the miller claims, and to be honest I don't really mind the type of claim he did. The thing I don't like, is the fact that it was

the first

post. This canbe one of three things...1)Scum trying to cement a town position.
2) Townie trying not to get lynched.
3) The actual claim that he claims he is.

Post 46- I don't think he is scum as such. I agree with the latter part of your statement.

Sorry about the long gap between my last post and this. I've had school and just come back from band practice.

[mykonian]

If this is a gambit, he is going to be cought. Every day, every night information streams in about the setup. Would be a very weird move. I don't see the potential for a "great move".