Micro Normal 1104 - Day 3

[Firebringer]

i am conflicted, i think tracker + Ic= bg is a bit much here in terms of micro power, but i also don't think its unreasonable. I mean its probably fine balance wise actually.

I guess leans towards hua is telling truth.

That kind of puts me in weird spot of where scum are as i feel the lim pool is strange.
Jackson/Kay has one scum almost certainly.
the last scum being in GIF/Luka is where i am confused. GIF has been hard townreading luka, and luka is well luka.

[Firebringer]

This setup is designed so that the bodyguard is probably dead by night 1 (protecting the only town) and the IC probably dead by night 2 (after the bodyguard dies). So we're robbed of night kill analysis as a starting point if we don't eliminate scum in day 1 and day 2, but since we have an IC - we are looking at a slimmer pool. My take is, I'm not sure there's a balance to giving town another way to get conftowns through a gated tracker if we eliminate 1 scum. Unless it's a very specific gate (that I have in mind).

I wanna ask what the gate is, but this is more Firebringer's call.

yeah i guess with this in mind. The idea bG always saves the IC and the tracker gets full reign to possibly 2 free checks is kind of strong. It could result in for instance scum getting tracked n1, then get inno checks on night 2. Or actually with assumption bg is dead on night 1 they couldn't get inno so maybe not thatp owerful

[Firebringer]

i should note that if we get scum here, hua surviving tomorrow would be odd given that he would have an inno at least with tracker.

So we should not elim hua no matter how much we think he is lying about claim.

I will look at Kay again later as i think her/jackson has to have scum here

[GuyInFreezer]

If Hu Tao isn’t a lazy tracker and is town, and if we correctly lim today we can force scum to no-kill.

[KayJayQueue]

If Hu Tao isn’t a lazy tracker and is town, and if we correctly lim today we can force scum to no-kill.

Can you explain this to me, I don’t really follow but I’d like to understand. Please

[humaneatingmonkey]

JV will be prodded in 5 hours.

[humaneatingmonkey]

If Kay and JV are scum together, do people think that they're more likely to:

1.) replicate their town meta where they would townread each other and form a block - and if one flips, the other claims pocketed?
2.) try to distance themselves against each other and try not to vote together on day 1?

[humaneatingmonkey]

If Luka is scum, do people think that they're more likely to:

1.) On day 1, avoid the top two town wagons who can turn into elims without their help - townread both slots, and tunnel another town slot. (Their partner can push either, if it's really needed.)
2.) On day 1, position themselves as a potential vote to top two town wagons so they can maintain focus and secure an easy town elimination.

[humaneatingmonkey]

I don't know what to make of GIF. I think I'm very much pocketed if they're scum. One thing I'll say is if they're scum, doing a VCA upon entrance when you're not really a participant yourself in the last 5 days of day 1 is an excellent strategy.

[humaneatingmonkey]

1. I think the best for today is to not eliminate Hu Tao and wait for her to full claim tomorrow or die by nightkill.
2. I also think it's best if we choose an elimination that makes sense whether or not Hu Tao is a partner or not.
3. I'll be choosing between Kay and JV because if Hu Tao is lying about his claim, the partner is unlikely to be Luka. As I've said, I don't think Luka tunnels a partner where there's risk of the game swinging towards that partner - and especially if there are two viable town wagons.
4. Is the partner likely to be GIF? I think, only if the primary strategy for scum is to fakeclaim PR. That's because GIF's VCA entrance focused discussion on Hu Tao being a possible wolf - and so that's a big risk consideration when trying to make a distance play like that. I'm not sure if scum would specifically strategize day 2 around claiming PR, as they're probably uninformed if there are remaining town prs left and claiming as a primary strategy would be suicide. Unless: They are informed that there are no more PRs in the first place. So I think if Hu Tao is fakeclaiming, it's probably a last-minute play.

[KayJayQueue]

1. I think the best for today is to not eliminate Hu Tao and wait for her to full claim tomorrow or die by nightkill.
2. I also think it's best if we choose an elimination that makes sense whether or not Hu Tao is a partner or not.
3. I'll be choosing between Kay and JV because if Hu Tao is lying about his claim, the partner is unlikely to be Luka. As I've said, I don't think Luka tunnels a partner where there's risk of the game swinging towards that partner - and especially if there are two viable town wagons.
4. Is the partner likely to be GIF? I think, only if the primary strategy for scum is to fakeclaim PR. That's because GIF's VCA entrance focused discussion on Hu Tao being a possible wolf - and so that's a big risk consideration when trying to make a distance play like that. I'm not sure if scum would specifically strategize day 2 around claiming PR, as they're probably uninformed if there are remaining town prs left and claiming as a primary strategy would be suicide. Unless: They are informed that there are no more PRs in the first place. So I think if Hu Tao is fakeclaiming, it's probably a last-minute play.

I think if it’s a fake claim, her partner could very likely be Jackson.

[Hu Tao]

Is ninja possible in normal games?

[Hu Tao]

I remember being a scum 1 shot ninja before in a micro but idk if it was normal or what

[JacksonVirgo]

I’ll catch up soon, have been busy this weekend and forgot to V/LA

[humaneatingmonkey]

Reminder that we're in a simple game. The only gates for Hu Tao are X-Shot, Odd/Even, and Novice. He's claiming X-Shot or Odd-Night. I don't buy either.

[Hu Tao]

So you think I'm scum now? Or are you scared I can catch you if you're scum

[humaneatingmonkey]

i think your claim is incompatible to the game's balance unless it's exactly the gate i'm thinking about right now, and yes that makes you scum.

[Hu Tao]

I'm not sure what to tell you. It's my role. Lol. Scum probably have a good power role too

[Hu Tao]

Actually why are you so certain about game balance when we don't know what scum have?

VOTE: HEM

[humaneatingmonkey]

These shots are so cheap, Hu Tao. I have paragraphs worth of reasons for what I think about game balance. If I'm scum who knows what the scum roles are, and you're telling the truth about your claim, wouldn't I just believe you?

If you're town, just admit you're fake claiming.

[KayJayQueue]

So I’m still hung up on the fact Jack implied he would claim something at E-1. It makes me feel like either Jack or Hu is scum and is either fake claiming or claiming their scum role as a town roke. So one or the other is bad. Or they could both still be bad in this scenario but I feel strongly that at least one has to be.

[humaneatingmonkey]

So I’m still hung up on the fact Jack implied he would claim something at E-1. It makes me feel like either Jack or Hu is scum and is either fake claiming or claiming their scum role as a town roke. So one or the other is bad. Or they could both still be bad in this scenario but I feel strongly that at least one has to be.

That's why I'm waiting for the new JV single to drop.

[Hu Tao]

It's very possible he's scum still. But that's my result

[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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