13p Normal [TM2015]

[DeltaWave]

What is the benefit to a no lynch?

[Trojan Horse]

Scum kills someone tonight, and then there's one fewer suspect to choose from.

If we had a player that was obvtown, then a no lynch would be pointless; scum would just shoot that player, and we'd be no better off. But I don't think anyone still alive is obvtown. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

[DeltaWave]

Gimme some time to consult with my team on this.

[Trojan Horse]

Prod dodge. I guess there's not much to talk about right now...

[DeltaWave]

There is a lot to discuss. I will make a post today but don't do anything until then.

[sthar8]

What is the benefit to a no lynch?

There is no nightchoice that doesn't give information to the town, and there is no negative consequence for a no-lynch. It's the safe, technically correct play and not taking it would be sloppy and bad.

[sthar8]

Put it this way: What do we

lose

by no lynching?

[DeltaWave]

You know how everyone was freaking out about how the setup was unbalanced since town didn't have an investigative role? Well, I lied about that. I'm actually a tracker. I fakeclaimed VT because none of my tracks actually cleared or implicated anyone, so I wanted the opportunity to get one last track.

N1: Tracked Jason to Pie
N2: Tracked Sthar to nowhere
N3: Tracked Boon but was roleblocked (thanks STD)
N4: Tracked Zachrules to Pie (Hate on me all you want for tracking this but I thought he could be scum after the STD incident)
N5: Tracked Trojan Horse to nowhere

I can show off my breadcrumbs if you want but part of the reason I wanted sthar to claim early in the massclaim was to see if he would say anything other than vanilla, which would have implicated him due to my night 2 track.

I'm claiming now because I don't think anyone would believe me if I did it tomorrow, even though I wanted the opportunity for one last track. I was going to hold off for one last game-winning track, but my team's position is that I wouldn't be believed if I busted this out tomorrow. There's also a 33% chance I might die during the night, meaning that my work would be wasted. While I really wanted that last track, if I didn't confirm TH as town right now then I may never have the opportunity to do it.

So we should spend the remaining time hunting between Egg and Sthar, because TH is now conftown. But we should no lynch at the end of the day. Scum's only option is to shoot me and then you'll all go into 3p LYLO with a confirmed townie.

[DeltaWave]

TH, don't mess this up tomorrow with any confbias. You need to be on your A game.

[DeltaWave]

Votecount 2.10:

Malakittens

(6-LYNCH)-

pieguyn

,

SleepyKrew

, Egg,

Save The Dragons

, sthar8,

Trojan Horse

,

DeltaWave

(3)-

Boonskiies

,

Malakittens

,

jasonT1981

,

Boonskiies

(1)-

DeltaWave

,

Not voting (1)-

Bins

,

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is at 6pm on the 30th April 2015. (expired on 2015-04-30 13:00:00)

STD is v/la until Sunday 3rd May.

Malakittens has been lynched. Flip incoming...

[/color]

[Trojan Horse]

Well then.

Before I do anything else, let me ask: Sthar and Egg, do either of you want to claim a power role at this point?

[Egg]

Well then.

Before I do anything else, let me ask: Sthar and Egg, do either of you want to claim a power role at this point?

Nope.

I've been townreading Delta so unless I change my mind and think he's gambiting scum (unlikely but I don't take everything at face value), it's basically up to you two to pick between sthar and myself.

There's probably no point in no lynching now. Trojan will just be NK'd. At the very least, he's confirmed town barring Delta being lying town.

[DeltaWave]

The benefit to a no lynch is that scum only has two options. Either kill me, and TH will be confirmed town (3p lylo with 1 conftownie), or kill TH, and I will get a game-winning track. Either way the town benefits. Unless we can all agree on who to lynch.

[Egg]

Actually, that makes sense. Trojan is confirmed town anyway because if you're scum, he can't be. But letting you track at least tells you who the scum is. Then it's just whether or not you're believed. So what I know will happen is you catch sthar killing or see that I don't which leaves only sthar and chances are I'll vote with you for a town win.

[Egg]

Delta if you are town I'm pretty sure you just saved this game for us.

[DeltaWave]

The scum are screwed either way because they'd have to pick between going into lylo with a confirmed townie, or being on the receiving end of a track that will necessarily out scum. Personally I do think it's more likely sthar is scum due to his bus position on the Mala wagon but I'm not assuming anything and neither should TH. Tomorrow will be a clean slate.

Anyway, I did breadcrumb this a bit. For a while I was convinced that Jason was town and he knew I was a Tracker, which is why he refused to give a full list of who he protected each night. I said something like "Are you afraid that someone might counterclaim them?" (referencing to his night actions.) I wanted to see if I would get push back on that point by trying to spook him.

[DeltaWave]

I mean that I was convinced Jason was scum and he knew I was a tracker.

[Egg]

Yeah I'm personally far from doubting you. Cheet agrees with me too.

[Egg]

Sthar, while I was V/LA (I probably didn't announce it here but I've been in Vegas for about a week), Tier put up a big post in my team's thread and wanted to know why you were looking for town power roles here. I've bolded it for reference:

I'm trying to figure out why scum would leave STD alive if they had correctly figured out he was the RB on D2. given jason was a bogyguard and thus would (or rather, *should*) protect STD, I really do not think it would be worth it to no kill in that situation as opposed to shooting STD immediately - in other scenarios, it'd be worth it, but not when it'd get protected, I don't think. I'm not sure about this, though.

This.

UNLESS (tinfoil hat time) somebody decided to go all-in and gamble on outguessing jason

and

getting him lynched. I don't even want to think about the odds on that one, but it explains all the scum actions pointing to a high EV play. That makes me interested in the jason wagon, but I'm having a hard time reviewing the wagon movement since it apparently happened entirely between votecounts.

sthar, I can trust you, right? >.>

No? No shortcuts this game, you need to look at my play and decide if it's town or not. I'm a little disconcerted that nobody in thread is wondering why

I was looking for town power roles.

I

think it should be obvious, but apparently nobody else was doing it, so...

He also wanted to know what you think of the NK

[Egg]

Sthar, ignore all of that. Tier isn't worried about it now that Trojan is confirmed town.

[sthar8]

Cool. No lynch, no more effort. I was right, Egg's scum.

[sthar8]

Unless we can all agree on who to lynch.

There is literally no reason to do this. On the .0000000001% chance you're faking, we should still be no lynching today.

[Nexus]

Votecount 6.1:

No lynch (1)-

sthar8

Not voting (3)-

Trojan Horse, Egg, Deltawave

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline is at 10pm GMT on Saturday 6th June 2015 (expired on 2015-06-06 17:00:00)

[Egg]

Cool. No lynch, no more effort. I was right, Egg's scum.

^lol. But you have no choice except to push that at this point.

[sthar8]

That's meaningless and empty rhetoric. Of course I don't: I'm not counterclaiming. If I'm town it's because I believe the claim, which makes Trojan confirmed and you scum. If I'm scum it's because I didn't think I could effectively counter Delta's claim (which I probably could have).