Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[Mathdino]

OOH
New idea.

1|2|3
_____
4|5|6
_____
7|8|9

We lynch the person opposite the towniest corner (while scumhunting normally of course, this is just for the actual lynch).
Mafia presumably kills the centre.
T|2|3
_____
4|M|5
_____
6|7|8

Since lynching the opposite corner obviously fails (ty Kaboose), we assume the scumteam is not {5, 7, 8} and look at pairs {2,3} and {4,6}.
Whichever pair is more likely to flip scum, we lynch in that pair. Scum will then be forced to kill the other to avoid town autowinning EVEN IF ONE IS SCUM.
If it turns out right, we either bag scum by N2 or we force scum to shoot themselves.

[Mathdino]

Suppose we lynch in {4,6}. It could end up in 2 ways:

T|2|3
_____
T|M|5
_____
M|7|8

Assume we bag scum somewhere. Optimal play continues as follows:

T|M|T
_____
T|M|5
_____
M|7|8

If scum's not already dead, it's 3p LyLo with a previously decided extremely townish person in 8.
Not terrible chances.

[Mathdino]

Forgot to write the other way:

T|2|3
_____
M|M|T
_____
T|7|8

The problem here is it relies on scum not both being in {2,3,7,8}, which is a 11/14 chance.

Then after scum shoots it ends up with 3p LyLo again.

These situations are pretty much equal. They both rely on the entire scumteam not being in a certain set of players.

The D1 and D2 lynches pretty much decide the game.

[Belisarius]

Why not mathdino?

A non-obvBS attempt to create a breaking strategy on page 1. Yes, this could come from scum if there's a clear flaw to it that scum could exploit, but it's less likely to.

[Empking]

The busiest vote count so far

T-Bone (1) - Mathdino
Mathdino (1) - Scripten
RedCoyote (1) - Kaboose

Note Voting:RedCoyote, Equinox, T-Bone, Pine, Belisarius, vettrock
Five votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-25 09:48:12)

[Scripten]

Why not mathdino?

A non-obvBS attempt to create a breaking strategy on page 1. Yes, this could come from scum if there's a clear flaw to it that scum could exploit, but it's less likely to.

But the game wasn't broken is the thing. I'm not saying that Math is 100% caught scum based on setup spec, but the towncred from breaking the setup would be super useful. Consider the newest iteration. We're banking on one corner player being super townie to decide on where we lynch. There's plenty of potential scum motivation for a plan like that, just as there is potential town motive.

[Belisarius]

I'm not saying it's

impossible

for Mathdino to be scum based on the evidence presented, merely that it is less likely and thus suboptimal to lynch him on Day One.

Another point in his column is that his initial strategy placed him squarely in his own proposed lynch pool, something that scum are less likely to propose, although apparently I am required to disclaim that it is once again

not impossible

for this type of gambit to come from scum.

[Pine]

The very clear choice is to lynch...

Me

Think about it. I am guaranteed not to live through N1 anyway. Planting the Town flag in the center square gives us the best shot at getting three in a row.

[Belisarius]

Yeah, that's not happening; this is still a game of Mafia and we're not

knowingly

lynching Town unless there's no choice.

[Kaboose]

I see what you're saying Pine, but lynching you or no even lynching gives us the least amount of info for D2. Why would we kill the mafia's target for them? If anything we need your voice to rise up and pick someone.

[Kaboose]

I'm not saying it's

impossible

for Mathdino to be scum based on the evidence presented, merely that it is less likely and thus suboptimal to lynch him on Day One.

Another point in his column is that his initial strategy placed him squarely in his own proposed lynch pool, something that scum are less likely to propose, although apparently I am required to disclaim that it is once again

not impossible

for this type of gambit to come from scum.

Well thanks for that WIFOM right there. Does mafia include himself in a lynch pool to look less mafia? Come on now.

[Mathdino]

The very clear choice is to lynch...

Me

Think about it. I am guaranteed not to live through N1 anyway. Planting the Town flag in the center square gives us the best shot at getting three in a row.

Hey guys, I think Pine is town for including himself in his own lynchpool.

Regardless, I very much don't expect to be townread for setup spec, since that's pretty easy to fake and if the game's full of smart people (case and point: Kaboose

), it's probably gonna get broken anyway.

Scumhunting > setup spec. SS is just something to talk about at the beginning and a good way to structure the game.

[Mathdino]

Starting off with townreads on Beli and Kaboose.

[Kaboose]

The very clear choice is to lynch...

Me

Think about it. I am guaranteed not to live through N1 anyway. Planting the Town flag in the center square gives us the best shot at getting three in a row.

Hey guys, I think Pine is town for including himself in his own lynchpool.

Regardless, I very much don't expect to be townread for setup spec, since that's pretty easy to fake and if the game's full of smart people (case and point: Kaboose

), it's probably gonna get broken anyway.

Scumhunting > setup spec. SS is just something to talk about at the beginning and a good way to structure the game.

If you're calling me smart, you've lost the plot mate.

I've been racking my brains for the best lynch here... And it seems either way we end up in a spot where we'll be lynching more to block.

We need to force scum to block us instead of the other way around. That way it's up to use who is living and who is dying.

Assuming they NK the IC N1 whatever square we lynch, we have to take one right next to it. That will force the mafia to block us. Taking the NK out of their hands and in to ours. So we aren't voting to lynch one person, we're voting to lynch two on D2.

[Pine]

All lynches are pro-Town naughts

All night kills are pro-scum crosses

Why would we give the most powerful square to scum

[Kaboose]

This is hurting my head.

PE: My reasoning would be to make them do stuff. We don't have much power but we can pretty much control what scum do until D3 when we'll be forced to block. Why would we lynch you and give scum a free lynch when we can lynch 1 of the other 8 and have a 12.5% chance of hitting scum? Your way two townies are dead starting D2 no matter what I'd assume.

[Belisarius]

Simple: We can't win by playing TTT; all TTT games played between players who know what they're doing end in a draw. We need to win by lynching the scum, same as we would in a conventional Mafia game. Lynching town is not a path to victory in a conventional Mafia game, therefore we're not taking the centre square.

[Kaboose]

I agree with that.

[T-Bone]

Checking in.

We have to make a choice early on, are we going to play tic tac toe or are we going to play mafia? I think so long as we block scum, there's no reason to focus on tic tac toe. Essentially scum go 2nd (in a proper game), meaning there is no scenario in which they should win in a proper game of tic tac toe. Trying to play tie tac toe is kinda dumb, we're all adults (mostly) and can reasonably play an optimal game of tic tac toe.

pre-edit: basically what Belisarus said...though I think I used prettier words

[T-Bone]

Actually if anything we should let scum play tic tac toe....because it'll be very telling who they do and don't kill based on the state of the board. Let scum play tic tac toe and we can play mafia.

[Scripten]

Hey guys, I think Pine is town for including himself in his own lynchpool.

Regardless, I very much don't expect to be townread for setup spec, since that's pretty easy to fake and if the game's full of smart people (case and point: Kaboose

), it's probably gonna get broken anyway.

Scumhunting > setup spec. SS is just something to talk about at the beginning and a good way to structure the game.

This is actually more town to me than any of Math's other posts, ironically.

All lynches are pro-Town naughts

All night kills are pro-scum crosses

Why would we give the most powerful square to scum

Center square isn't the most powerful square, so forcing scum to either leave conftown in the game or take out the most convenient NK target would be optimal, since the worst thing that could happen would be we can guess their moves in advance. As others are saying, let scum play TTT. We'll play mafia.

Speaking of which, RedCoyote, Equinox, and Vettrock are all missing. I find this troubling, considering lurking scum did quite well in the last game of this setup. I know vettrock is a town lurker, but the other two I know nothing of.

[Mathdino]

Nononono

If scum play TTT,

they win.

By D3, our lynch target WILL be forced until LyLo. We absolutely have to bag scum in the first 4 people to die or we're toast.

We need to play both to win. That way we can maximise our NKA and lynch more strategically.

[T-Bone]

We'd have to bag scum in the first 4 people normally anyway?

I don't understand where you are coming from.

[Mathdino]

If we get to 5p LyLo without playing TTT and letting scum do that, we lose. This isnt just any 9p mountainous.

Our advantage is the ability to force scum to shoot themselves and analyse the NKs.

[Kaboose]

We need to pick a corner tonight. I know we aren't playing tic tac toe, but it's no point in gimping ourselves from the start. Corner move gives us 4 options to lynch on D2 if we want to keep scum from taking advantage early. Instead of 2 options to lynch D2 if we want to keep scum from taking early advantage.

We should probably back off until the last remaining to not post have gotten a word in though.