In post 2923, Bins wrote:ughh my problem is that what if theres three people with a correct result on scum. the scum just has an easy time picking off the cop.
again, if cop ever dies we can tell who he checked as town/scum.
i need to send the mod a pm to post for post game. posting it now is not good
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 3:52 pm
by The Bulge
No no the alternating thing changes nothing. In fact it makes it worse. We only have 3 scum. If we're forcing every second player to fake claim a guilty, there are going to be more people with incorrect reads and therefore more people for scum to confirm as "not-cop".
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 3:53 pm
by The Bulge
I want this idea to work but I really don't see any way it possibly could.
Now just grab a sheet of paper, open Notepad, whatever, and make a tick every time he says something insightful about the game that is
not
setup speculation. Remember, setup speculation is alignment neutral - it could be happening in Mafia Discussion, about this exact setup, with zero game roles, and people will tend to post in game what they would in MD. We are not talking opportunistic "X said something scummy, FOS/Vote/etc". Something that indicates that Thesp - an intelligent person - is looking and analyzing the players. Not the roles, not the claims, the players.
Double dog dare you to find a single thing that wasn't opportunistic finger pointing, setup discussion, general philosophy winges, or random "my thoughts about events on the past few pages". What does that say? Is he smart enough to have insights on player's mentalities? Or is he too stupid to have that insight? Or is he just finding it really hard to do actual analysis of a player for
some reason
?
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:03 pm
by GreyICE
Although I admit an absolutely terrible line of reasoning has struck me.
It doesn't matter, because Thesp is scum, but.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:10 pm
by Varsoon
In post 2926, The Bulge wrote:No no the alternating thing changes nothing. In fact it makes it worse. We only have 3 scum. If we're forcing every second player to fake claim a guilty, there are going to be more people with incorrect reads and therefore more people for scum to confirm as "not-cop".
Then, at worst, we trade a cop for a scum.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:12 pm
by The Bulge
Scum can eliminate from incorrect town-reads as well
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:12 pm
by The Bulge
As in if our cop gets an inno, but through PoE he's one of the only people who is correct, scum kills him and we have no info
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:13 pm
by Varsoon
Honestly, Thesp's ISO feels like general catch-up malarky, engagement with topics being discussed (setup spec, wagons, etc), and sussing out other player's positions on things.
Maybe he just doesn't want to throw down in analysis.
I don't think that constitutes absolute scum-or-town.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:22 pm
by Varsoon
In post 2932, The Bulge wrote:As in if our cop gets an inno, but through PoE he's one of the only people who is correct, scum kills him and we have no info
The chances of 4/8 people being wrong on their innos when we should have, at worst, 8 innocent players alive are incredibly slim. Each player who is claiming an Inno has, at worst, a 3/10 chance of being wrong. Sounds big.
The chances of two players being wrong on their innos is 9/100
The chances of three players being wrong on their innos is 27/1000
How do you suggest the cop manages to share info with town without scum being wise to who the cop is?
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:22 pm
by Varsoon
<<
Maybe I did that math wrong.
I haven't done math for school in almost seven years.
In post 2932, The Bulge wrote:As in if our cop gets an inno, but through PoE he's one of the only people who is correct, scum kills him and we have no info
The chances of 4/8 people being wrong on their innos when we should have, at worst, 8 innocent players alive are incredibly slim. Each player who is claiming an Inno has, at worst, a 3/10 chance of being wrong. Sounds big.
The chances of two players being wrong on their innos is 9/100
The chances of three players being wrong on their innos is 27/1000
How do you suggest the cop manages to share info with town without scum being wise to who the cop is?
3 scum, 10 town. Everyone is still alive because day one.
From a town perspective:
Inno has 1/4 (3/12) chance of being incorrect and 3/4 (9/12) chance of being correct.
Guilty has 1/4 (3/12) chance of being correct and 3/4 (9/12) chance of being incorrect.
13 total players - self|confirmed town = 12 possible!scum.
From a scum perspective:
Any claim has a 100% chance of being as accurate as scum want it to be since all scum know who all other scum are.
The best chance to obfuscate the real cop for the longest time possible is to fake innos as long as you can and hope you don't inno the scum.
If Team 9 dies tonight and isn't a doctor, then this plan's success chance is increased, assuming the cop isn't killed (or lynched)
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2014 5:19 pm
by GreyICE
In post 2933, Varsoon wrote:Honestly, Thesp's ISO feels like general catch-up malarky, engagement with topics being discussed (setup spec, wagons, etc), and sussing out other player's positions on things.
Maybe he just doesn't want to throw down in analysis.
I don't think that constitutes absolute scum-or-town.
Oh?
Interesting.
So you see what I see, but you don't wish to draw conclusions from it.
The brovenge man
The brovenge
Oh also alcohol gave me ephiphany and I would loke to share it with all these nice people.
But first anz the question pls
Dont worry scums this isnt a reaction test and it is not aboht your scumbuddy bulge.
I think there's at least some chance GreyICE is scum
this is mostly POE at this point but there's a few things I'm still wondering about that I'll get into later. most of it had to do with Marquis while he was in the game
I disagree with any cop strategy on principle. I don't see the point in trying to organize any kind of plan around the cop. it's way easier and more natural for everyone to just play normally.
although..... fwiw, I'd like to recommend GreyICE as a cop choice. from what I've read, he's a very dangerous scum player, but his reads generally are good when he's town. thus he's an excellent choice for someone to cop. I usually never do this, but I'm having nightmares about it and idk if I'm just crazy or what. (<- not trying to necessarily direct the cop, but rather just laying out all the info so whoever the cop is has it on the table)
-Rumia
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:04 am
by Team 9
In post 2928, GreyICE wrote:Double dog dare you to find a single thing that wasn't opportunistic finger pointing, setup discussion, general philosophy winges, or random "my thoughts about events on the past few pages". What does that say? Is he smart enough to have insights on player's mentalities? Or is he too stupid to have that insight? Or is he just finding it really hard to do actual analysis of a player for some reason?
while I have Thesp's slot as mostly null, I disagree with your reasoning here
for one Thesp has already said he has a bunch of townreads, but isn't elaborating on them. it is possible he's scum using this as a preemptive excuse for not having to elaborate on anything, but as long as his explanation checks out, I don't think this is a good angle to push. do you disagree?
second, if he was looking for an opportunistic lynch, his switch off the Bulge doesn't make sense imo. he unvoted Bulge bc "it doesn't look like Bulge will get lynched today". now that I'm looking at it again, his switch came, iirc, before most of the ppl had unvoted the Bulge.
however, the Bulge wagon reached L-1 at a point. if Bulge is town and Thesp is scum, all he had to do in order to push the wagon through was get someone like Gaiden on there or, hell, ika later in the game had expressed intent to hammer.
I also disagree that pushing lurkers necessarily == opportunistic - GIF and I shared a similar sentiment for most of the game where we thought we could lollynch a lurker and have a greater than average chance of a scumflip. his vote on Bulge was also the 1st vote which, while not impossible, is smth I think would be less likely to come from an opportunistic push.
I'd also like elaboration on your thoughts on Titus while she was in the game (bc I scumread her early on although I have the slot at null now) and your read on Varsoon (I disagree, I wanna know what you're seeing). Bulge read would also be nice but not necessary.
-Rumia
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:06 am
by Team 9
also I got your back GIF
In post 2941, GuyInFreezer wrote:The brovenge man
The brovenge
Oh also alcohol gave me ephiphany and I would loke to share it with all these nice people.
But first anz the question pls
Dont worry scums this isnt a reaction test and it is not aboht your scumbuddy bulge.
My conclusion is that despite the posturing, prose, and paperwork, there's no pressure coming from the slot.
I can't really hate that, though.
I can't really call that scum.
