Micro 360: A Given Value of Normal (Game Over)

[My Milked Eek]

Garcia?

[fontisian]

Don't answer things addressed to other people until they answer them.

[Cheery Dog]

Votecount 1.02
fontisian ( 3 ) HighShroomish | Wolfy | insanity018
Wolfy ( 2 ) My Milked Eek | fontisian
Grib ( 1 ) phokdapolees
HighShroomish ( 1 ) Desperado

Not Voting FunSizedOddball Grib


With 9 alive 5 votes are required to lynch
Deadline: (expired on 2014-07-30 05:09:44)

[fontisian]

The garcia rule actually comes from this post: http://www.fantasystrike.com/forums/ind ... ost-111565

[Wolfy]

If Wolfy says there has to be scum in 4 people on his wagon and he then says that

it can't be the first two

. How are those two not being

cleared

by wolfy?

1. I didn't say it can't be... I said "I took yours and Insanity's as

probably genuinely random

"
2. RVS votes to me aren't alignment indicative. Just because I thought your votes were probably random didn't mean I was clearing you.

[fontisian]

Walk me through this, Wolfy.

You believe there was one scum on your wagon. You also believe that the first two votes were not alignment indicative. Therefore, the one scum must be between the last two votes.

I don't see the connection. What if one of the first two voting you was scum (if you're town and assuming any given player has a one in four chance of being scum, then there's 5/16 chance of that being the case)? Would that clear Desperado and me or not? And if it does, then why have you been ignoring that possibility?

[My Milked Eek]

Don't answer things addressed to other people until they answer them.

If I see things I don't like, I'm going to go after them. I'm not going to wait around for anyone to answer them,

if

they're going to answer them. No, strike the iron while it's hot.

Especially in this case, where your case is a near copy of my thoughts, I'm going to but in on stuff like that.

If Wolfy says there has to be scum in 4 people on his wagon and he then says that

it can't be the first two

. How are those two not being

cleared

by wolfy?

1. I didn't say it can't be... I said "I took yours and Insanity's as

probably genuinely random

"
2. RVS votes to me aren't alignment indicative. Just because I thought your votes were probably random didn't mean I was clearing you.

That means you've cleared me and insanity. I don't get how you're not coming to that conclusion.

[Wolfy]

I've cleared nobody. I said probably random.
eek : 25% chance of being scum (that's the pure random odds)
insanity: 25% chance of being scum

cleared would be 0% chance of being scum.

--------------------------

I haven't identified anybody 100% as scum.
I took fontisian and desperados votes as not

just

random
they have a higher (unquantifiable) chance of being scum for me.
So I voted one of them

We're all looking for the small things that move the odds one way or the other because we all start the day with the same odds.

[fontisian]

But that's inconsistent with you saying there's a fifty-fifty chance of me and Desperado being scum. Are you going to answer my questions?

[Grib]

Wolfy is probably town. But the tunneling is fun to watch.

VOTE: My Milked Eek

> RVS's Wolfy
> suddenly everything Wolfy does is scummy

I would vote phok because his vote on me is hypocritical and lazy but I don't want to deal with the omgus banter. Maybe after work, if Stuff happens.

[HighShroomish]

But that's inconsistent with you saying there's a fifty-fifty chance of me and Desperado being scum. Are you going to answer my questions?

misREP.

He said

between

you and desperado it was 50/50.
Grib, vote font with me.

[fontisian]

Grib: Why is Wolfy town?

But that's inconsistent with you saying there's a fifty-fifty chance of me and Desperado being scum. Are you going to answer my questions?

misREP.

He said

between

you and desperado it was 50/50.
Grib, vote font with me.

Are you stupid, incapable of reading or just scum?

I'm getting the awful feeling that none of you understand basic probability and proper vote analysis.

[Grib]

The same reason I said you're town, which. You don't seem to require an explanation on.

You are town, right?

[HighShroomish]

Finally, he shouldn't be making a "random" choice between me and Desperado. If he was actually trying to find scum, he would have tried to analyze our different responses to his wagon and asking questions. But he's not, because he's not actually trying to find scum.

I had a choice:

• fontisian (for the unvote more than the vote because he didn't want to look bad if I accidentally got quick hammered)
  
• desperado for the vote to put me at L-1

it was 50/50 for me - both looked scummy.
I randomly chose fontisian of the two

I got lucky, I made the right choice.

font, read this

very

carefully.

Now, look at this-

I've cleared nobody. I said probably random.
eek : 25% chance of being scum (that's the pure random odds)
insanity: 25% chance of being scum

cleared would be 0% chance of being scum.

--------------------------

I haven't identified anybody 100% as scum.
I took fontisian and desperados votes as not

just

random
they have a higher (unquantifiable) chance of being scum for me.
So I voted one of them

We're all looking for the small things that move the odds one way or the other because we all start the day with the same odds.

This probability out of four people including nothing alignment indicative.
Now what you said-

But that's inconsistent with you saying there's a fifty-fifty chance of me and Desperado being scum. Are you going to answer my questions?

misREP.

He said

between

you and desperado it was 50/50.
Grib, vote font with me.

Are you stupid, incapable of reading or just scum?

I'm getting the awful feeling that none of you understand basic probability and proper vote analysis.

You seem to not realize that he took you and desp, looked at the posts, found you both equally scummy(50/50), then picked randomly between the two.

Make sure you're right before you insult someone next time.

[fontisian]

Grib: I don't need to understand why I'm town. I've got a role pm for that. (You failed the test, by the way, but had a separate town tell that balances it out.) I'm asking for your reasoning here, because you've played with Wolfy before and I haven't.

Shroomish: Basic math man. If there's a 25% that each of Eek and Insanity is scum, then there's a 56.25% chance that neither are scum. If Wolfy believes that in that world, one of the remaining people on his wagon has to be scum and it is equally likely to be me or Desperado, then he should believe there's a 28.125% chance of one of us individually being scum. You might recognize that as almost the exact same odds of anyone being scum. Wolfy's position makes no sense, even if we except "one scum on the wagon" as a valid premise (which it's not).

[fontisian]

Wolfy is on one hand saying that he has not cleared Eek and insanity, and on the other hand making assumptions as if Eek and insanity are cleared. Is that not obvious?

[My Milked Eek]

Wolfy is probably town. But the tunneling is fun to watch.

VOTE: My Milked Eek

> RVS's Wolfy
> suddenly everything Wolfy does is scummy

I would vote phok because his vote on me is hypocritical and lazy but I don't want to deal with the omgus banter. Maybe after work, if Stuff happens.

Yeah, because that's exactly what happened...

[HighShroomish]

Let me state this very clearly-
First post I quoted. It was comparing you and desparado. The other two aren't factors. At all. They aren't in the probability. He thinks you and desp have the scum in the group. He's picking between you and desparado. He looked at the posts that you had. He looked at the posts desparado had. He concluded that you and desparado were equally scummy. He picked between you and desparado randomly because you and desparado were equally scummy.

Wolfy is on one hand saying that he has not cleared Eek and insanity, and on the other hand making assumptions as if Eek and insanity are cleared. Is that not obvious?

No he's not. I'm not going to put someone in my calculations for scum if they have non-alignment indicative posts. Would you like him to include Grib in his calculations as well even though Gribs vote was random? I mean, sincehes not that means he must've cleared Grib, right?

[HighShroomish]

Um, there's like a two post transition from RVS to Wolfy is scum. So I'd say that's what happened.

[My Milked Eek]

Yeah, as if Wolfy's behavior isn't scummy.

[My Milked Eek]

It's baffling how everyone seems not to grasp the basic concept of Wolfy clearing me and insanity.

[My Milked Eek]

Vote: Wolfy

VOTE: Wolfy

VOTE: Wolfy

Vote: Wolfy

L-1 by post 15 - excellent - it won't be all town on the wagon, but

which one is scum

...
VOTE: fontisian

Any reason you're voting font out of this group?

I took [MME] and Insanity's as probably genuinely random.
Random choice between fontisian and desperado.

we'll see where it goes.

Tell me again where he doesn't clear me and insanity.

[My Milked Eek]

I mean seriously, don't they teach reading comprehension skills in the US?

[Grib]

If he's town, he's making a guess. Guesses don't clear anyone of anything. Do you know what "probably" means?

@fonti

I'm at work, can't do bigger posts/browse past games efficiently.

I hate your tests.

[HighShroomish]

HOLY FUCK PEOPLE CAN WE PLAY NICE INSTEAD OF THROWING INSULTS AROUND.

And please MAKE SURE THAT YOU ARE FUCKING RIGHT BEFORE POSTING.

You know what genuinely random means? It means that he thinks they were fucking random. Just because they are random in no way means they(you) are town.