I'm still here, I just suck. I've been putting off doing the analysis of the treatment of Dodgy/CES/MBL on Day 1 since I knew it'd be a major undertaking, and kept putting it off as the game was rolling along slowly. Sorry guys, I should have been posting instead
On the upside, I've now done it, and here's what I came up with:
Basic timeline
Apr 29, Dodgy melts down and claims doctor
Apr 30, CES replaces Dodgy
May 30, CES' last post in the game
Jun 18, MBL replaces CES
Jun 22, two-week deadline imposed
Jul 5, Day 1 ends
This is the timeframe I've been looking at. There's a bit of a flashpoint at about Jun 18 where CES' long-term absence comes to a head and he accumulates several votes, which dissipate when MBL replaces in.
gorckat
Gorckat put his stake down very early on with reasons as to why we should leave CES alone until Day 2, letting the mafia kill him. He doesn't change these thoughts for the entirety of Day 1, but he does temporarily vote CES on May 15 for lurking. The only other thing of note is that he flits his votes a
lot
between thorgot/OTM, inHimshallibe and Kilmenator, but is at least consistent in naming them as his top three suspects. In a game with an assumed three+ bad guys, that's not totally unfair.
I don't think he did anything particularly scummy during that time-frame (though copped a lot of flak from a number of other people) and basically have him down as being town.
thorgot/Off The Mark
thorgot really didn't do anything of note (he posted one pertinent comment on May 8, that we should leave CES alone for now), so I'll brush onto his replacement by OTM on May 30, just as CES was about to go absent for a long time.
OTM's initial stance was to just leave CES alone til Day 2 to force a claim, and he supported the move to pressure inHim quite actively. The break to this is on Jun 17-18 when he switches to voting CES due to long-term absence, until going back to inHim on Jun 20. Generally I get town vibes from him, but there's a case for being opportunistic in his voting. That said, CES
was
lurking a good 'un and enough people pressed him around Jun 18 for at least some of them doing so genuinely.
pete d
Pete d really didn't say a lot about Dodgy's claim, most of his posts not even mentioning it except via his reasons to vote Kilmenator, who he found suspicious for wanting CES to claim but not wanting to lynch him. He too voted CES on Jun 18, and unvoted very shortly after as MBL replaced in.
Generally he was consistent with his suspicion on Kilmenator, later (Jun 25) adding OTM and superstring as additional suspects. He was very quiet though, and I thought it was odd how little he even acknowledged the "should CES/MBL claim?" debate.
Kilmenator
Wow, this was the easiest one to make a call on, even without taking into account her role-claim. Right from the offset, she wanted a claim from CES to avoid a potential WIFOM horror story on Day 2, but not necessarily a lynch (something she got flak for from pete d). She didn't waver from this stance until the deadline, when she accepted that it wasn't helping bring the day to a close and joined the inHim bandwagon.
This seems like out-and-out town play to me. It is also totally consistent with her already-mostly-confirmed claim and the choice she made - if she thought we were going to be screwed by a WIFOM decision today, and that MBL was a quality BS'er who could well deceive us as mafia, it totally made sense to kill him. It's not even clear that she made the wrong decision, since unless we have
four
killing groups, the mafia did indeed intend to leave MBL alive.
Southpaw/Pie_is_good
Southpaw did virtually nothing before going absent for a month, except put his initial view down as "let CES survive til Day 2 then deal with him".
pie came in guns-a-blazing at the start of June basically calling out Dodgy's meltdown as scummy, and CES' lurking as scummy. His stance throughout June was that we really, really should force a claim out of CES before doing anything else (in particular, that we shouldn't be asking for a claim from inHim before getting one out of CES). He totally did not waver from this til the deadline-lynch, only adding gorckat and OTM as other suspects at the end of June.
This surprised me, and has forced me to reconsider the OMGUS-by-proxy case that he was scum trying to get the doctor lynched. He held on to the belief that CES should be lynched before it was "in vogue", and so can't be accused of trying to drive a bandwagon to the finish-line opportunistically - he'd already been on it for two weeks!
superstring91
A reread of superstring's posts brings one thing out quite clearly - he's very keen to press the "let's lynch the inactives" argument over a lot of anything else. His first reaction after Dodgy's meltdown is to just chase down gorckat and other "inactives", although he does say he doesn't want to lynch CES, he wants a claim (May 6).
The rest of Day 1 is (ironically) punctuated by some large absences, but he threatens suspicion on CES on May 15 for being absent, again on May 31, and votes him Jun 12 for lurking big-time (which he was). He only posts once more on Day 1, after MBL replaces in, saying that he is going to reread thoroughly and reassess his vote, but he never does.
Far and away the scummiest reading of anyone still alive. He just seems to consistently take the easy road of lurking-chasing, as well as posting very infrequently and staying well below the radar.
Eletriar/Nanookthewolf
Eletriar didn't post much in May, and then got replaced at the start of Jun. She did say that that she was in favour of reviewing it on Day 2, again.
Nanook played very similarly to pie, as a replacement at a very similar time he came in and slammed a vote on CES to reopen the discussion (which he removed before pie placed his vote as the sole voter). There was then a lot of voting - first supporting the inHim bandwagon on Jun 17 as it was more likely to come to something, then rejoining the CES bandwagon when everyone else joined it, then unvoting MBL as he replaces in, and revoting him a day later on Jun 19 after some thought, which he then holds til the end of the day.
I can't really say he did a lot different to pie, though, like OTM I could argue that he was somewhat opportunistic with his vote-switching around the time of the CES bandwagon and MBL replacement. One man's opportunism is another man's pragmatism though, so that bears more thought. On another note, though, Eletriar did give me scummy vibes (she had that relaxed, "taking this all very professionally like a good townie" vibe to her that always seems a bit forced).
Overall summary
I wanted to make sure I had my facts right about the Jun 18 flashpoint, as I think this was most likely to yield the greatest clues about who was being opportunistic and who wasn't:
Jun 17, post 442, CES has three votes (Pie, Nanook, superstring) and inHim has 5 (me, IH, Fonz, gorckat, Kilm). Pie voted for CES in post [318], superstring in post [408], Nanook in post [411].
[443] Nanook unvotes CES (->2) and votes inHim (->6)
[447] OTM votes CES (->3)
[448] Pete d votes CES (->4)
[449] Nanook switches back to CES (->5) from inhim (->5)
[451] MBL replaces CES
[453] Nanook unvotes MBL (->4)
[455] Pete d unvotes MBL (->3)
[461] Nanook votes MBL (->4)
[477] OTM unvotes MBL (->3) and votes inHim (->6)
Kilmenator and gorckat really don't look very scummy to me. superstring looks absolutely dreadful ;p There's more of a question mark over pete d and OTM than there was before, pie looks a fair bit better than before this analysis. Nanook looks to be somewhat opportunistic, especially with his votes generally being timed such that they're most likely to stoke a MBL bandwagon. Right now, my order would be:
superstring, pete d, Nanook, OTM, pie, gorckat, Kilmenator
With superstring standing way above everyone else, and gorckat and Kilmenator much further off my scumdar than the middle four. This is where I would almost certainly vote superstring, but I have no idea how many votes he's on because I didn't check and I now want to go to bed. Also, I want to properly read and respond to the last page or so of posts. Expect regular service again!