433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[Off the Mark]

EBWOP - d'oh that should have said "I read over my own bandwagon

analysis

"

[Pie_is_good]

Vote: Gorckat

Time to get something moving. I just keep getting a worse and worse feeling when I read his posts. They seem forced.

[Off the Mark]

Gorckat's not my top suspect, but I agree we need a bandwagon to analyze at this point. A lot of his posts have seemed too eager to be friendly. I have this picture of a guy who comes up and throws his arm around you and offers you a drink, but then when the lights go out, he sticks a knife in your back.

And he did pile on a couple bandwagons in lynch -2 position... inHim twice and kilm once. His last vote for inHim does look like something scum wouldn't do, because he could just stand pat and let town die... BUT I had just FOS'd him for being a follower and he almost immediately voted for inHim as if to say, "Look at me, I'm not following!" Seems a little paranoid when you look at it that way.

vote: gorckat

Let's just see where this goes.

[pete d]

pete: What exactly are you showing with your kilm wagon listing? You show my votes moving at the beginning, which I've explained previously. Did anyone else move their votes during the kilm wagon?

If I'm more suspicious to you than I was previously, can you tell me why?

Basically I thought the kilm wagon was the first significant bandwagon after the discussion about Dodgy / CES, and should tack on to the start of OtM's analysis. As for you being more suspicious than before, it's more OtM had dropped down a little on my suspicions list, whilst my previous concerns re you and superstring still stand.

Now, pie and OtM voting gorckat, I know the game's a bit stagnant at the moment, but I find this suspicious. OtM has pushed his suspicions of a number of players (Nanook, superstring, gorckat, and earlier Dasq) today, especially superstring of late, but has put a second vote on gorckat. With superstring not responding, I don't understand why he's decided to go after gorckat.

FoS: Off the Mark

. Pie, a couple of little things, not switching to OtM late day 1 and dropping his suspicions of OtM too quickly (imo) after the PBP. But, pie's vote on gorckat is consistant with his previous statements.

Nanook's also staying out of discussion a bit recently, perhaps trying to duck under the radar?

[Off the Mark]

Basically I feel a bit at a loss right now. I have suspicions on Nanook and Superstring, but they aren't posting. I'm hoping a gorckat bandwagon will teach us something new.

You know what? I changed my mind. I would rather pressure a lurker than push gorckat.

unvote, vote superstring

I just hate when a game is not moving at all... is refusing to post a viable scum strategy? Frustrating.

[pete d]

I checked, and superstring and Nanook are posting in other parts of the site (superstring's last post was on August 2, Nanook's on July 31).

vote: superstring91

.

FoS: Nanook

for lurking.

[Off the Mark]

Let's not push this too much farther until we get a response.

[gorckat]

I checked, and superstring and Nanook are posting in other parts of the site (superstring's last post was on August 2, Nanook's on July 31).

vote: superstring91

.

FoS: Nanook

for lurking.

That's not cool. string has been called out and hopefully prodded and still hasn't posted.

I still want him to post links to games as scum.

@pie: Ever get around to reading those links I provided? iirc, you read Pie's and made a judgement on his play.

[kilmenator]

Alright, after catching up, OTM looks the scummiest to me. He seems to jump around with his vote a lot, and never really gives a solid reason why. Why change your vote so quickly from gork to superstring? Feelings right now are that OTM and gork could be scum buddies, not sure if there would be a third.

[Off the Mark]

I never felt that good with my vote on gorckat, but I felt we needed a bandwagon to get more reactions. When I read Pete D's post, I thought, "yeah... why am I voting gorck right now?"

[gorckat]

Heh- first, two things. One, that my last comment to pie should've said 'you read OTMs' Two, somehow I missed the bulk of pete's post replying to my question to him. Thanks for that.

Second- OTM has jumped quite a bit of late. He tried (or did, depending on your opinion of me) to lay out a case against me when he voted, but then says he never felt good about it.

I'm not sure what to make of it- the game being slow is frustrating, and I know that can skew things, especially if its townies lurking. Once things pick up and we have better reactions to gauge, I'll feel more comfortable breaking out the noose.

I'm trying not to cling stubbornly to my earlier assertions of who's town. That sort of conviction has burned me in other games.

[Off the Mark]

I checked, and superstring and Nanook are posting in other parts of the site (superstring's last post was on August 2, Nanook's on July 31).

vote: superstring91

.

FoS: Nanook

for lurking.

I decided to check this out myself. Superstring posted once, in a game he is modding, on 8/1. Before that, his last post is 7/23. It's not like he's been playing in other games and avoiding this one intentionally.

Nanook, on the other hand, has posted a lot, in a lot of games he is playing/modding, between 7/18 (his last post here) and 7/27, but since 7/27 he has only posted a couple of modding posts on 7/30.

FOS: Pete D

for misleading us with this info. And if Pete D is scum, I find it likely that gorckat is too. Notice how after my gorckat vote, Pete calls it into question and FOS's me, but after my superstring vote, Pete goes out and finds some corroborating evidence (which turns out to be sketchy) and then votes for superstring along with me.

unvote:

for discussion. Leaning towards voting Pete D now.

See? I guess we did need some votes to get things moving again.

[Off the Mark]

Forgot to say, it is possible Nanook is intentionally lurking (or he was, between 7/18 and 7/27) and I'd really like to hear from him.

[gorckat]

I checked Dasq's last post date and saw that he hadn't done anything since then. I figured if pete was being oppotunistic, he would've called out Dasq as well. If Dasq had had posts, I would've guessed at them being scum. Somewhere in there I figured since Dasq wasn't called out, pete was being straight and didn't think to check string's and Nook's post dates.

@the room: is there anyone who's scum partner I <i>haven't</i> been OTM, pete...who else has someone paired me with? I feel like there are others...

I'm hesitant to damn you for your hops and leanings, OTM, since I did it too on Day One, but from the outside it does look sketchy.

I'm off to check string and nook's post dates myself...

[gorckat]

Okay- string had a number of posts (most as a mod, but also a BAH post) since his last here. He posted in other games a full week after his last post here.

I wouldn't say pete was trying to fool us.

[Off the Mark]

Hmmm ok, just seems Pete's investigation was a little lazy if he was really trying to analyze if they had been lurking or just absent.

I feel like at this point, I am going to look suspicious for trying to do ANYthing, but if we sit here and do nothing, scum will win. I've decided I don't care if I look a little suspicious, I can deal with it. It's worth getting the game moving again.

I am surprised we have heard so little from Dasq.

[pete d]

FOS: Pete D for misleading us with this info.

Perhaps "are posting" could be restated as "has posted" in superstring's case; However, even if he has been posting sporadically, he would still have received his prod.

And if Pete D is scum, I find it likely that gorckat is too. Notice how after my gorckat vote, Pete calls it into question and FOS's me, but after my superstring vote, Pete goes out and finds some corroborating evidence (which turns out to be sketchy) and then votes for superstring along with me.

2x FOS: OtM

. Blatant misrepresentation. I rightly called you out for your contradiction in voting gorckat. Your superstring vote had nothing to do with mine. I had previous concerns, and seeing that superstring would have picked up his prod but still hasn't posted convinced me to put a vote on. I will keep it on at least until he posts.

[Off the Mark]

Your superstring vote had nothing to do with mine.

I find that very hard to believe. You gave a different reason, but you want me to believe it was just coincidence that you voted for him in the post following my vote? You could have at least claimed that you felt it was time to increase pressure, but saying your vote had nothing to do with mine feels like a lie to me.

[Off the Mark]

I checked Dasq's last post date and saw that he hadn't done anything since then. I figured if pete was being oppotunistic, he would've called out Dasq as well.

This is really bad logic, Gorckat. You think Pete would have called out Dasq when Dasq

didn't

have any recent posts? Pete would have been absolutely giving himself away with a move like that. He needed to make it seem plausible.

[Dasquian]

I'm still here, I just suck. I've been putting off doing the analysis of the treatment of Dodgy/CES/MBL on Day 1 since I knew it'd be a major undertaking, and kept putting it off as the game was rolling along slowly. Sorry guys, I should have been posting instead On the upside, I've now done it, and here's what I came up with:

Basic timeline

Apr 29, Dodgy melts down and claims doctor
Apr 30, CES replaces Dodgy
May 30, CES' last post in the game
Jun 18, MBL replaces CES
Jun 22, two-week deadline imposed
Jul 5, Day 1 ends

This is the timeframe I've been looking at. There's a bit of a flashpoint at about Jun 18 where CES' long-term absence comes to a head and he accumulates several votes, which dissipate when MBL replaces in.

gorckat

Gorckat put his stake down very early on with reasons as to why we should leave CES alone until Day 2, letting the mafia kill him. He doesn't change these thoughts for the entirety of Day 1, but he does temporarily vote CES on May 15 for lurking. The only other thing of note is that he flits his votes a

lot

between thorgot/OTM, inHimshallibe and Kilmenator, but is at least consistent in naming them as his top three suspects. In a game with an assumed three+ bad guys, that's not totally unfair.

I don't think he did anything particularly scummy during that time-frame (though copped a lot of flak from a number of other people) and basically have him down as being town.

thorgot/Off The Mark

thorgot really didn't do anything of note (he posted one pertinent comment on May 8, that we should leave CES alone for now), so I'll brush onto his replacement by OTM on May 30, just as CES was about to go absent for a long time.

OTM's initial stance was to just leave CES alone til Day 2 to force a claim, and he supported the move to pressure inHim quite actively. The break to this is on Jun 17-18 when he switches to voting CES due to long-term absence, until going back to inHim on Jun 20. Generally I get town vibes from him, but there's a case for being opportunistic in his voting. That said, CES

was

lurking a good 'un and enough people pressed him around Jun 18 for at least some of them doing so genuinely.

pete d

Pete d really didn't say a lot about Dodgy's claim, most of his posts not even mentioning it except via his reasons to vote Kilmenator, who he found suspicious for wanting CES to claim but not wanting to lynch him. He too voted CES on Jun 18, and unvoted very shortly after as MBL replaced in.

Generally he was consistent with his suspicion on Kilmenator, later (Jun 25) adding OTM and superstring as additional suspects. He was very quiet though, and I thought it was odd how little he even acknowledged the "should CES/MBL claim?" debate.

Kilmenator

Wow, this was the easiest one to make a call on, even without taking into account her role-claim. Right from the offset, she wanted a claim from CES to avoid a potential WIFOM horror story on Day 2, but not necessarily a lynch (something she got flak for from pete d). She didn't waver from this stance until the deadline, when she accepted that it wasn't helping bring the day to a close and joined the inHim bandwagon.

This seems like out-and-out town play to me. It is also totally consistent with her already-mostly-confirmed claim and the choice she made - if she thought we were going to be screwed by a WIFOM decision today, and that MBL was a quality BS'er who could well deceive us as mafia, it totally made sense to kill him. It's not even clear that she made the wrong decision, since unless we have

four

killing groups, the mafia did indeed intend to leave MBL alive.

Southpaw/Pie_is_good

Southpaw did virtually nothing before going absent for a month, except put his initial view down as "let CES survive til Day 2 then deal with him".

pie came in guns-a-blazing at the start of June basically calling out Dodgy's meltdown as scummy, and CES' lurking as scummy. His stance throughout June was that we really, really should force a claim out of CES before doing anything else (in particular, that we shouldn't be asking for a claim from inHim before getting one out of CES). He totally did not waver from this til the deadline-lynch, only adding gorckat and OTM as other suspects at the end of June.

This surprised me, and has forced me to reconsider the OMGUS-by-proxy case that he was scum trying to get the doctor lynched. He held on to the belief that CES should be lynched before it was "in vogue", and so can't be accused of trying to drive a bandwagon to the finish-line opportunistically - he'd already been on it for two weeks!

superstring91

A reread of superstring's posts brings one thing out quite clearly - he's very keen to press the "let's lynch the inactives" argument over a lot of anything else. His first reaction after Dodgy's meltdown is to just chase down gorckat and other "inactives", although he does say he doesn't want to lynch CES, he wants a claim (May 6).

The rest of Day 1 is (ironically) punctuated by some large absences, but he threatens suspicion on CES on May 15 for being absent, again on May 31, and votes him Jun 12 for lurking big-time (which he was). He only posts once more on Day 1, after MBL replaces in, saying that he is going to reread thoroughly and reassess his vote, but he never does.

Far and away the scummiest reading of anyone still alive. He just seems to consistently take the easy road of lurking-chasing, as well as posting very infrequently and staying well below the radar.

Eletriar/Nanookthewolf

Eletriar didn't post much in May, and then got replaced at the start of Jun. She did say that that she was in favour of reviewing it on Day 2, again.

Nanook played very similarly to pie, as a replacement at a very similar time he came in and slammed a vote on CES to reopen the discussion (which he removed before pie placed his vote as the sole voter). There was then a lot of voting - first supporting the inHim bandwagon on Jun 17 as it was more likely to come to something, then rejoining the CES bandwagon when everyone else joined it, then unvoting MBL as he replaces in, and revoting him a day later on Jun 19 after some thought, which he then holds til the end of the day.

I can't really say he did a lot different to pie, though, like OTM I could argue that he was somewhat opportunistic with his vote-switching around the time of the CES bandwagon and MBL replacement. One man's opportunism is another man's pragmatism though, so that bears more thought. On another note, though, Eletriar did give me scummy vibes (she had that relaxed, "taking this all very professionally like a good townie" vibe to her that always seems a bit forced).

Overall summary

I wanted to make sure I had my facts right about the Jun 18 flashpoint, as I think this was most likely to yield the greatest clues about who was being opportunistic and who wasn't:

Jun 17, post 442, CES has three votes (Pie, Nanook, superstring) and inHim has 5 (me, IH, Fonz, gorckat, Kilm). Pie voted for CES in post [318], superstring in post [408], Nanook in post [411].

[443] Nanook unvotes CES (->2) and votes inHim (->6)
[447] OTM votes CES (->3)
[448] Pete d votes CES (->4)
[449] Nanook switches back to CES (->5) from inhim (->5)
[451] MBL replaces CES
[453] Nanook unvotes MBL (->4)
[455] Pete d unvotes MBL (->3)
[461] Nanook votes MBL (->4)
[477] OTM unvotes MBL (->3) and votes inHim (->6)


Kilmenator and gorckat really don't look very scummy to me. superstring looks absolutely dreadful ;p There's more of a question mark over pete d and OTM than there was before, pie looks a fair bit better than before this analysis. Nanook looks to be somewhat opportunistic, especially with his votes generally being timed such that they're most likely to stoke a MBL bandwagon. Right now, my order would be:

superstring, pete d, Nanook, OTM, pie, gorckat, Kilmenator

With superstring standing way above everyone else, and gorckat and Kilmenator much further off my scumdar than the middle four. This is where I would almost certainly vote superstring, but I have no idea how many votes he's on because I didn't check and I now want to go to bed. Also, I want to properly read and respond to the last page or so of posts. Expect regular service again!

[Off the Mark]

I like your analysis, Dasq. Very well done. Only problem is, due to Pete D's recent reaction to my votes, I can't see Pete D and superstring both as scum. So we have to get it right between the 2 at the top of your scummy list.

[Off the Mark]

If we were to simply lynch the scummiest-looking person, it would definitely be superstring.

FYI - I will be away without internet until Monday.

[Dasquian]

OK, had a brief reread of the last page or so. Man, it seems like every time OTM opens his mouth it's to pick a new target. It looks really scummy on the surface, but seems more likely to me to be the actions of a frustrated townie wanting the game to move onwards. Moving on.

Only problem is, due to Pete D's recent reaction to my votes, I can't see Pete D and superstring both as scum.

Can you explain this? I don't see anything that really makes me think "man, pete d and superstring really wouldn't make sense as scum together".

Basically superstring and Nanook both need to post something. superstring particularly. If I've counted right, no one had any votes at the top of this page (post 700) so now superstring has one (Pete d) and gorckat has one (pie). With that in mind,

vote superstring91

.

[Dasquian]

Oh, and I

really

don't like this:

So we have to get it right between the 2 at the top of your scummy list.

I don't like the implication that we

will

be choosing between the top two people on

my

list. It railroads the town while getting me to carry the can if it goes wrong.

[Thestatusquo]

Petroleum Jelly replaces Nanook the wolf, who did not pick up his prod. Searching for one more replacement.