Open 554 - omg, like, jungle republic!! + game over~~

[Marquis]

@MOD

If we get into a situation of 2 mafia goons, 1 townie, one werewolf, do the mafia win?

Yes.

"The mafia or werewolves win if they obtain a full majority of living players, or

if they make up half and at least one protown role is still alive

." [x]

[Marquis]

a near-copy of the previously rare mid-page votecount

---

votecount 4.4!!

Thor665 (3) ::

Not_Mafia, Majiffy, reinoe (L-1)

reinoe (1) ::

Justin Playfair (L-3)

not voting (2) ::

Lia, Thor665

deadline is 9 days from this post ::

(expired on 2014-06-09 16:00:00)

with 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch!!

[Not_Mafia]

@Thor Majiffy is town because he lead wagons on both factions, I'm aware that bussing exists but neither felt like a bus to me, we know now that at least one of the mafia did bus but he's made himself too much of an NK target to be mafia. Kat is town because I found her tentativeness surrounding the Finglove wagon genuine so I don't think she's mafia and I don't think her early game interactions with Ninja come from scumpartners

[Justin Playfair]

@Thor Majiffy is town because he lead wagons on both factions, I'm aware that bussing exists but neither felt like a bus to me, we know now that at least one of the mafia did bus but he's made himself too much of an NK target to be mafia. Kat is town because I found her tentativeness surrounding the Finglove wagon genuine so I don't think she's mafia and I don't think her early game interactions with Ninja come from scumpartners

Not_Mafia, could you then explain your reasons for thinking lia and I are scum? Because there's just three of us left who are town, and if you're presenting yourself as town and clearing Majiffy and Kat/reinoe, then you've decided who scum is. I'd love to hear some reasons.

Also, you've been hanging on to that tentative reaction to the finglove wagon as your reason to townread Katarina for a really long time, along the way jumping in to defend her whenever she was too "boisterous" or "over-defensive". So is that read still paramount to you after...

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

and

@MOD

If we get into a situation of 2 mafia goons, 1 townie, one werewolf, do the mafia win?

Because so far as I can see reinoe isn't interested in the town's win conditions at all.

[reinoe]

So who's win condition am I interested in when I push to lynch Goons and identify werewolves?

[Not_Mafia]

I've found my early game reads to be more accurate in general so I pay attention to my early game reads, I believe I've mentioned this in this game.

You're far overstating my defense of Kat, people were scumreading her over a style/personality issue, which would have been a waste of time to discuss, so having experience playing with her offsite I pointed this out.

I'm scumreading Lia mainly for the slot, Jon just seemed to be 'scumhunting' by PoEing off his wagon despite acknowledging there was a legitimate case on him, so it just looked like scum hunting other scum to me. You is mainly PoE but I find your cases so far to be quite poor, I could also see a Thor/Mnem + JP mafia team with you chainsawing for him considering you've popped up and started attacking everyone on his wagon.

So are you calling Reinoe Mafia or Werewolf, because the 'slip' you've highlighted in 541 would indicate Werewolf to me but you're pushing this as a mafia lynch. 549 I don't see as alignment indicative, if he was mafia as you say I'm pretty sure he'd utilise the PM function rather than be so brazen as to ask about his own win condition in thread

[reinoe]

I've found my early game reads to be more accurate in general so I pay attention to my early game reads, I believe I've mentioned this in this game.

You're far overstating my defense of Kat, people were scumreading her over a style/personality issue, which would have been a waste of time to discuss, so having experience playing with her offsite I pointed this out.

I'm scumreading Lia mainly for the slot, Jon just seemed to be 'scumhunting' by PoEing off his wagon despite acknowledging there was a legitimate case on him, so it just looked like scum hunting other scum to me. You is mainly PoE but I find your cases so far to be quite poor, I could also see a Thor/Mnem + JP mafia team with you chainsawing for him considering you've popped up and started attacking everyone on his wagon.

So are you calling Reinoe Mafia or Werewolf, because the 'slip' you've highlighted in 541 would indicate Werewolf to me but you're pushing this as a mafia lynch. 549 I don't see as alignment indicative, if he was mafia as you say I'm pretty sure he'd utilise the PM function rather than be so brazen as to ask about his own win condition in thread

I want to understand the conditions that town would lose. Justin Fairplay is looking worse with each post. He's trying to find everything scummy without actually considering other options. I'm starting to think the other werewolf has been found but I'd like to hear from Lia or she can just vote for Thor.

[Thor665]

@Thor Majiffy is town because he lead wagons on both factions, I'm aware that bussing exists but neither felt like a bus to me, we know now that at least one of the mafia did bus but he's made himself too much of an NK target to be mafia. Kat is town because I found her tentativeness surrounding the Finglove wagon genuine so I don't think she's mafia and I don't think her early game interactions with Ninja come from scumpartners

Okay, so your theory is that me, Lia, and Justin are the scum.
You're advancing a Thor/Justin Mafia and Lia Werewolf - yes?

Also, I can see the Majiffy townread and understand it. That's fine.
Can you expand on this Kat one though? It isn't very clear to me, and if you're using it as PoE I'm sure you can describe it more fully. Specifically what was tentative, and why does that make her town, and also what is the Ninja interaction that clears her?

So are you calling Reinoe Mafia or Werewolf, because the 'slip' you've highlighted in 541

would indicate Werewolf to me but you're pushing this as a mafia lynch

.

When was it pushed as a Mafia lynch? I would love to see that as it would highly affect my reads.

[Thor665]

Also, NM - your opinion on Reinoe ducking the slip would also be good to hear. Because he's blatantly doing it.

[Majiffy]

POEing the Smurf out of this game. Plus I had other reasons to read him as scum that I can't remember from the outage.
[snip]
You could probably ISO mnem and find out why I have the read I do on your slot. Otherwise just make yourself look town, because you can do that, right? Being town and all? Mmkay.

Explain your PoE please? I'd especially love to learn who is confirmed town and why.

Also, the second comment is wussy and useless in equal degrees - just try to back up your case and position and try to look town yourself.

No one is confirmed town, but if I have townreads it's easier to start outside them.

And I'm lazy, damnit.

[Not_Mafia]

You are pretty much correct. I think that scum is [Thor, JP, Lia] and I don't think that Lia and JP are partners since Lia has been consistently attacking Justin since subbing in, which leaves me with Thor mafia and I'm currently heavily leaning JP as the partner

JP calling Reinoe slot mafia specifically

At this point I think the most likely mafia is Katarina/Reinoe. And maybe it works in concert with a Katarina and mnemonic scum team, but I just don't think so. Katarina slips onto the Finglove wagon with the next to last vote. She does this after several posts in which she pointed out that she didn't suspect Finglove. The reason she gives for voting Finglove is because Enomis stopped voting Finglove. And even after she settles her vote on the wagon she posts this:

At this point I think the most likely mafia is Katarina/Reinoe. And maybe it works in concert with a Katarina and mnemonic scum team, but I just don't think so. Katarina slips onto the Finglove wagon with the next to last vote. She does this after several posts in which she pointed out that she didn't suspect Finglove. The reason she gives for voting Finglove is because Enomis stopped voting Finglove. And even after she settles her vote on the wagon she posts this:

I could flash wagon on jon, we can probably do that too.

and even throws the chaff into the air that is post 187.

Anyway, by my way of thinking we are probably in the same place tomorrow morning whether we lynch mafia or wolf today. If we lynch wolf we're at three to two and if we lynch mafia the wolf has no reason not to kill tonight, and we probably wake up to two-one-one. There's a one in four shot, though, that wolf hits Mafia, which would leave us at three to one, and so I'm going to:

Vote: Reinoe

By the way, Reinoe, Lia wasn't just not voting Ninja, she was actually voting with him, as, at the time of Ninja's lynch, one of only two votes on Wolfy. Lia is the least likely wolf in town.

My consideration was whether to vote for someone I believe to be mafia or someone I believe to be a wolf, and I chose to vote for the person I think is most likely mafia for that reason.

Reinoe should respond to the slip accusations yes. I'll talk about the slip more once he has responded.

Regarding Kat

Here is where I find her tentativeness around the wagon genuine and I find it a genuine concern over a mislynch rather than anything scum motivated

Nah, cant hammer on that. Wagon formed too early for a Jungle Republic game.

@Kat - Disagree about wagon speed. Two factions, don't know each other and no reason to preserve them. Basically you're just going to see a bit of resistance from wolf-bus - but it happens; last JR game I was in, I had to bus my buddy D1 as wolf and ended up winning.

I'd like to see this wagon go through ASAP because I have some thoughts on each of the votes flip-dependent.

You do make a point, I seem to have forgotten setup because Ive been thinking wolf as an individual then read back and remembered there were two. Last JR I played was inactive as shit.

I kind of dont like the substance of the wagon though, the votes are just too drably placed that just looking at it is eh. Trust me I'd love to yolohammer but I'd prefer some other counterwagon.... like people i actually scumread

I want to know why enomis is so concerned with NT's opinion of it all. There are 5 other people on that wagon.

He asked me as well of my opinion on the wagon and why I won't part take in it, I think it's more of asking people that were readily accessible.

I'm starting to think that this wagon should just hammer soon because of the fact that he took the opportunity to see where the wagon is going. I think his vote was possibly a wagon/bus attempt and considering the wagon wasn't pushing he tried to salvage face by stepping away from it.

Don't get me wrong, as an individual player I can't really see FingLove's super scumtells (if someone would kindly chop up his ISO for me and prove me wrong then that'd be lovely). I do think that this is a possible partner tell due to enomis' reaction to the wagon.

And these are the interactions with NT that I don't see coming from scumpartners

I originally didn't think anything ill or out of the ordinary of Kat. Call me naive but I normally don't worry about it when people make stuff like this their opening statement into a game

In this game I am

not

the Werewolf.

Thus this is why I failed to see her as a threat to the village yesterday

but after seeing her talk it out with S and Em my mind is made up

VOTE:

Katarina

You do know that his statement is poor reasoning and deduction just to have a bad read on a person right?

Let's use his logic for this example:

Ninja Trigger has not claimed to be part of the town.
OPTION 1: Ninja Trigger must be part of of the scum faction because he'd be lying if he claimed town.
OPTION 2: Ninja Trigger must be

the

wolf due to his inability to claim as town.

You do know that his statement is poor reasoning and deduction just to have a bad read on a person right?

Let's use his logic for this example:

Ninja Trigger has not claimed to be part of the town.
OPTION 1: Ninja Trigger must be part of of the scum faction because he'd be lying if he claimed town.
OPTION 2: Ninja Trigger must be

the

wolf due to his inability to claim as town.

I did to a certain extent claim myself as a non threat a town, when I stated

Thus this is why I failed to see her as a threat to the village yesterday
VOTE:

Katarina

I used the term Village in my last statement kinda loosely there so let me expand on what I meant. When I called you a threat to the village the message that I wanted to convey was this. I want to protect the town, and the people who dwell there, and that includes protecting myself along with the rest of town from the werewolves and the mafia.

I hope that help clears things up, and as far as my ability to read people I am not the greatest people reader out there. But under your own logic that you provided against me, about my inability to claim Town, you gotta remember that your opening statement was no different

In this game I am

not

the Werewolf.

Which could be completely true about not being a Werewolf, but you could very easily be a Mafia goon, and thus a threat to the village that I am trying to protect.

I could

maybe

see it as distancing, but I don't think so

[reinoe]

What slip? That's why I'm not responding. People are calling this a slip?

So this situation, in which the wolf and town have to work together, is why you are being completely and totally honest and open? Because otherwise you'd be dishonest and concealing...town?

I'm being completely honest and claimed my role in my first post because Wolf cannot afford to kill town. It's to the town's benefit to narrow the options. I don't expect a mass claim but I have no problem narrowing down the options by one.

[Thor665]

POEing the Smurf out of this game. Plus I had other reasons to read him as scum that I can't remember from the outage.
[snip]
You could probably ISO mnem and find out why I have the read I do on your slot. Otherwise just make yourself look town, because you can do that, right? Being town and all? Mmkay.

Explain your PoE please? I'd especially love to learn who is confirmed town and why.

Also, the second comment is wussy and useless in equal degrees - just try to back up your case and position and try to look town yourself.

No one is confirmed town, but if I have townreads it's easier to start outside them.

And I'm lazy, damnit.

This is not an explanation of your PoE.
This is not...anything, really. You basically may as well have not posted a reply, or posted a reply of 'Proddodge!!!' for how useful that was for me or anyone else to learn about your alignment.
Please try again.

While your at it, also reply to all my opinions below (as in, Kat and N_M), and also weigh in on Reinoe responding to the slip. He's wagoning with you, so I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.

JP calling Reinoe slot mafia specifically

The post you quoted is from before the slip...I find this either not wise on your part or intentionally deceitful on your part. I'm not sure why it should work as a point against JP. Can you clarify this any?

Reinoe should respond to the slip accusations yes. I'll talk about the slip more once he has responded.

@Reinoe ^^^

That's 3 people now...so unless you think we're *all* scum...y'know...

Regarding Kat

Here is where I find her tentativeness around the wagon genuine and I find it a genuine concern over a mislynch rather than anything scum motivated

It reads equally well as partner not happy to hammer or alternate scum preferring to fish for town points than a quicklynch. Pretty neutral on it from my perspective - why does it feel so genuine to you? I'll agree she's saying words, but I'm not sure why it feels so honest and true.

And these are the interactions with NT that I don't see coming from scumpartners
[snip]
I could

maybe

see it as distancing, but I don't think so

No, I agree, that doesn't look like Wolf/Wolf interactions. I'll toss out agreement that I think neither she, nor you (for how you reacted to it) are likely wolves. I'm not sure what clears either of you from scum still at this point, but would love to have you sell me on that as far as Kat goes.

[Not_Mafia]

JP calling Reinoe slot mafia specifically

The post you quoted is from before the slip...I find this either not wise on your part or intentionally deceitful on your part. I'm not sure why it should work as a point against JP. Can you clarify this any?

That didn't really occur to me that the "slip" followed after these. If it hadn't, it would show inconsistency with case he's presenting and what he's saying in terms of what scumteam he's hunting, which would indicate he's one faction hunting the other.

And about Kat, just tonally I found her posts sincere and born of genuine town concern, I think if it were her resisting a lynch on her partner it would have been at least somewhat evident, we're from the same homesite so I know she's only been scum twice and it looks like her townposting to me

[reinoe]

I don't mean to be obtuse here but I thought I addressed it in 561.

Can someone bold, underline, and italicize the relevant text? I don't like leaving questions unanswered but I really have no idea what's being called a "slip".

[Not_Mafia]

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

If I'm correct they're reading this as you slipping up about your tactics as wolf

[reinoe]

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

If I'm correct they're reading this as you slipping up about your tactics as wolf

OK, so I did address this in 561.

Town mislynch today, Wolf accidentally nightkills a townie=Mafia win.

That's the "slip" Justin and Thor are harping on about? Fuck me.

[reinoe]

Also...

I guess the only thing I hadn't considered was a no-kill tonight. If Werewolf want to do a nightkill then they have to kill mafia and not townie. This is all under the assumption that Thor is lynched because he's Obvscum.

But the third mafia is well entrenched and I have no idea who it is.

[Lia]

Sorry I haven't been able to get to this over the weekend. I should be able to catch up tomorrow.

[Justin Playfair]

You know, I might owe Majiffy an apology come tomorrow. But I really like my vote right now.

@Not_Mafia. This would have been part of the post where I pointed out Reinoe's slip. I know you're sweet on the Katarina slot, and you've put a lot of effort into protecting it, but it really is scum.

[Majiffy]

Get to it later, Thor. Aforementioned laziness.

But if you want to hear my reply before I reply, feel free to ISO because every answer you want is probably already in there.

[Majiffy]

E.G. I am just going to ISO and look at my most recent reads.

[Thor665]

That didn't really occur to me that the "slip" followed after these. If it hadn't, it would show inconsistency with case he's presenting and what he's saying in terms of what scumteam he's hunting, which would indicate he's one faction hunting the other.

Well...yes, that's why I asked you about it. Except your only example didn't gel with that concept. Now that you know the order was different...is he still scummy, or has the read there changed?

And about Kat, just tonally I found her posts sincere and born of genuine town concern, I think if it were her resisting a lynch on her partner it would have been at least somewhat evident, we're from the same homesite so I know she's only been scum twice and it looks like her townposting to me

How is her tone different when scum?
If you can't answer this - my next question will be 'then how do you believe you can spot her townposting enough to rule her out as scum and resort to PoE as a scumhunting tool?'

Also, now that Reinoe has responded to the slip, what is your take of his response?

Hence why I am being completely and totally honest and open. Werewolves have to work with town tonight to lynch a goon because an erroneous nightkill tonight leads to a mafia win.

If I'm correct they're reading this as you slipping up about your tactics as wolf

OK, so I did address this in 561.

If that's you addressing it then "I am vanilla town"
WHoop-dee-hiddle, now I just proved I'm not a wolf, is that legit in your mind?
Because it's not in mine.

Who do you think is the wolf if it's not you?
Who would you advise that person to shoot besides me?

@Majiffy - sweet, when you iso yourself to remind yourself of your reasoning, state it again so I can catch up without needing to iso you. When you get back, I'd like your opinion on the wagon on me now as well...considering I've asked people to back it up and the evidence supporting the wagon is...well...y'know, kind of self-apparent in my opinion for how valid of a wagon it is.

[reinoe]

If that's you addressing it then "I am vanilla town"

I think you're mafia scum. Prove by yours/mnemonic's posts that that slot is town. It's an uphill battle to be sure. Also why are you claiming now, when I asked you to claim earlier? Looks insincere to me.

WHoop-dee-hiddle, now I just proved I'm not a wolf, is that legit in your mind?
Because it's not in mine.

You'd have a hard time convincing me you're the wolf anyway because I'm fairly certain you're mafia goon. If you were really vanilla townie you shouldn't be afraid to claim when I asked you. Now I won't believe any claim you make.

Who do you think is the wolf if it's not you?
Who would you advise that person to shoot besides me?

"If it's not you?" Confbias to the max.

I've narrowed it down to Lia or Justin Fairplay. If you were reading the thread you'd know that.

And I wouldn't speculate on whom the werewolf should nightkill because as I mentioned earlier I have no idea who the final goon is. And activity is so low it's hard to discern any sort of patterns. I've done ISO's and I've still got nothing I'd like to share yet. If you're vanilla townie like you say you'd be trying to find out who the two factions are, but you're not. What you're doing is trying to OMGUS the person who put you at L-1 and making accusations.

Since you're a fan of confirmation bias, could you crumb a clue to us about whom the third mafia goon is? If there's a Scum QT or Private Topics can you give us some clues about your partner? I would really appreciate it.

[Thor665]

If that's you addressing it then

[sarcasm]

"I am vanilla town"

[/sarcasm]

I think you're mafia scum. Prove by yours/mnemonic's posts that that slot is town. It's an uphill battle to be sure. Also why are you claiming now, when I asked you to claim earlier? Looks insincere to me.

Oh, my bad, I forgot to include the tags in my claim - I put them in for you.
I was trying to point out how silly your claim in your first post is as anything worth believing - I agree that you shouldn't believe it from me, but why do you think others should believe it by you. Functionally you're proving my point here - does this make sense now?

"If it's not you?" Confbias to the max.

Well, clearly I think it's you and clearly you don't.

And I wouldn't speculate on whom the werewolf should nightkill because as I mentioned earlier I have no idea who the final goon is.

So who are your town reads, if any?

What you're doing is trying to OMGUS the person who put you at L-1 and making accusations.

I don't think you understand what OMGUS is - if I'm making accusations then it's not just OMGUS.
Also, OMGUS isn't even scummy even if I was doing it.

Since you're a fan of confirmation bias, could you crumb a clue to us about whom the third mafia goon is? If there's a Scum QT or Private Topics can you give us some clues about your partner? I would really appreciate it.

Am I allowed to link mod communication? I'll do it if I am, you do it first and show me your role PM
But, seriously, you suspect Justin but don't see a reason to connect him and me like N_M has? I disagree with his conclusion but it has some reasonable basis at least as far as today goes - why don't you like N_M's case since it otherwise agrees with your reads?