Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

MrBuddyLee : 2 (Glork, Patrick)

Not voting: MrBuddyLee Mgm

4 alive means

3

to lynch!

Deadline:

10am BST Wednesday 8th August

[Patrick]

Anyone else out there?

[Mgm]

Vote: No lynch

The only thing I still want to do is investigate Fritzler's posts which could only lead to Glork looking more guilty. Everything MBL said about Patrick has me convinced that lynching MBL is not the right thing to do.

[Glork]

*groan*

Mgm, at least one protown player thinks you're completely 100% wrong. How can you be so sure of MBL's innocence?

[Mgm]

Because his case against Patrick makes sense.
How can you be so sure of his guilt?
Do you want to bet the outcome of the game on it?

[Glork]

<<Insert String of Four-Letter Words Here>>


I just lost my entire post on what I found was protown about Patrick. What I can remember is:

• His stance towards Andrew's behavior and the subsequent wagon after his NL
  suggestion. Especially his "seriously, what would scum have to gain from making such a suggestion?" question.
  
• His first posts of D2, which helped kick me into gear. It felt like a wake-up call, and that's certainly what it ended up being.
  
• D2 - His responses to Zindaras remind me of a protownOMGUS mindset. I think that Patrick's play is, in many ways, similar to Ibby's play. By extension, Ibby tends to be more OMGUSy and defensive as town. When Zindaras accused Patrick of OMGUS, his response was more than reasonable.
  
• Other than his soft stance on CDB, his D3 to early-D4 behavior towards Zindaras was consistent and sensible.

That's as far as I had gotten. Responding to Mgm, then finishing the analysis.

[Glork]

It makes sense to an extent, but MBL just made lenghty cases against both myself *AND* Patrick. In case you didn't notice, he's just trying to cast as much suspicion as possible on both of the other unknowns, hoping somebody will bite.

I will also note, Mgm, that

YET AGAIN

MBL makes his cases on the supposition that X is scum. His case against me is posed as "If Glork/CDB/CES are scum, here's what happened" and then he lists everything in a light that paints me as scum and reaches the conclusion that I am scum. Then, he goes "If Patrick/CDB/CES are scum, here's how they did it" and does the exact same thing. I cannot believe that you are buying into his circular arguments, hook line and sinker.

For example, when MBL says this:

Busing D5:

Currently if I had to have a stand alone top suspect, it's probably CES.

...he is starting with the assumption that Patrick is scum, concluding that this statement was a bus attempt, then using it as evidence against Patrick.
While it makes sense

if Patrick were scum

, it is not a valid argument, because it begins with

the assumption that Patrick is scum

.

I guarandamntee you, MGM, that if I ran an analysis that started "Suppose Mgm was not confirmed innocent, and MGM/CES/CDB were scum together...." I could make a series of argumens that "make sense."


MBL has not proven a goddamned thing either way. He's just spewing words with the spin that he wants to apply. Nevermind that on D5, that comment may have been "PatrickTown successfully pegged CES-Scum." No, MBL just states it as a bus attempt, so suddenly it's a bus attempt? Hardly.

Furthermore, this:

Patrick was late to the CDB wagon and afterwards cleared Thesp of a tie to CDB and suggested ties between Mgm and Zindy and CDB.

...is misleading at best.
1) Several players had tied Zindie/CDB, including Glork and Thesp.
2) At least one other player (Glork) also pointed out possible Mgm-CDB connections. I'm positive that there was at least one more, but I haven't bothered to look this up.
3) While Patrick was 5th on the CDB wagon, MBL was 4th. As I said before, either position was prime busing position. MBL paints Patrick negatively using something that he did himself -- defend CDB at first then jump on the wagon only after it was apparent that there was a defined voting bloc against CDB.

So there. Now that I've pointed out the most obvious flaws in MBL's case, does that change your opinion

at all

? Or should I bust more of his "case" against Patrick?



Furthermore, I find it ridiculous to assume that Patrick's "it isn't smart to bus the GF" is indicative of him being scum when MBL attacked CES as well, and Glork expressed suspicions and intent to lynch CES basically all day (except for MBL's quick third vote).
Regardless of who the scum is, one of the three of us threw CES under the bus yesterday. Hard. Saying "Patrick could have been busing CES" means

NOTHING

at this point in the game. Try again, sir.

[Patrick]

Hmm. I'll make a few comments on this.

Because his case against Patrick makes sense.

The case against MBL makes sense.

Do you want to bet the outcome of the game on it?

His actions do suggest that.

I feel a bit better about Glork after these posts (which I suppose is to be expected really, he's defending me). I had a slight concern running through my mind something like, "If Glork is town isn't he concerned about what is going on here? Isn't he afraid of no lynching, being nightkilled and Mgm screwing up tomorrow...?" With his latest posts, I'll dismiss that as him having a busy real life schedule at this point.

Mgm, I can only reiterate that I think you've been selectively reading.

[Glork]

I think the other reason that I suspect MBL is because he seems to have his head so far up his ass with his GlorkSuspicions that I don't see any protown player actually thinking that I am more likely to be scum than Patrick or MBL. I think that there *are* valid points against both players, but I still can't get over the "Even though I find it 60% likely that Glork is confirmed innocent, I want to vote him" attitude. Investigation results override scummy play every single time in an open/known situation.




Need I remind you of your own words, MGM, that if MBLscum couldn't get a guaranteed mislynch, he needed a no-lynch? And that voting Glork would surely achieve that no-lynch?

[Glork]

Yes, Patrick, I

am

concerned about what is going on here. I am terrified that I'll be nightkilled, Mgm will have a WIFOM explosion, and somehow MBL will end up winning the game. I'm clearly putting everything I've got on MBL being scum, and the fact that Mgm just voted for the one thing that I fear most (and the one thing that we know will, without a doubt, benefit the last scumbag) makes me want to pull my hair out.

[Glork]

Oh, and in case you haven't noticed, that one post that I kept citing of Patrick's is, to me, a *HUGE* indicator that he is protown. The biggest so far, by a wide margin. MBL has no such "this seems like nothing scum would possibly do" moment for me.

[Glork]

Oh, also Patrick's "Well, it's almost deadline, so I'm going to vote MBL and hope he gets lynched,

but I still want Glork to explain why he thinks I'm protown

" comment also gives me good feelings. The emphasized part seems like an oddly curious/astute request to make for a scumbag who is just trying to get a mislynch anyway. Now granted, asking me to do this might cause GlorkTown to soldify PatrickScum's position, but it's just as likely that he is doing what I did -- wanting to make sure that my stance is genuine, and that I'm not just playing the buddy-up game.

[Mgm]

About 2206: I wasn't talking about that post. He made a case earlier already.

[Mgm]

Need I remind you of your own words, MGM, that if MBLscum couldn't get a guaranteed mislynch, he needed a no-lynch? And that voting Glork would surely achieve that no-lynch?

MBL couldn't get a mislynch, but if Patrick is the scumbag, lynching MBL is the most logical choice for him and the easiest to achieve too.

[Glork]

Elaborate, then. Tell me why

you

think that Patrick is scum, rather than citing old arguments that MBL has made.

[Mgm]

Oh, also Patrick's "Well, it's almost deadline, so I'm going to vote MBL and hope he gets lynched,

but I still want Glork to explain why he thinks I'm protown

" comment also gives me good feelings.

This is one of those things I don't like about him. If Patrick is not scum, picking MBL is about the only sane thing he could do and he is still acting like it is a guess.

[Patrick]

This is one of those things I don't like about him. If Patrick is not scum, picking MBL is about the only sane thing he could do and he is still acting like it is a guess.

The hell? You're critisising me for not being certain that MBL is scum? Need I remind you that you started today saying Glork was the most likely scum, and that you recently posted...

The only thing I still want to do is investigate Fritzler's posts which could only lead to Glork looking more guilty.

Indicating that you're not entirely sure yourself. So how is picking MBL "the only sane thing to do"?

[Mgm]

The difference is that when I'm not sure I don't throw away the game. We have another chance and if we no lynch now, there'll be at least one less suspect tomorrow.

Indicating that you're not entirely sure yourself. So how is picking MBL "the only sane thing to do"?

You don't seem to doubt it, so with me confirmed and YOU sure about it, MBL is the only sane choice FOR YOU.

[Patrick]

So.. I don't get what you're critisising me for. I'm not certain, but I'm certain enough to bet the game on it and basically say Glork has won if he's scum.

The difference is that when I'm not sure I don't throw away the game. We have another chance and if we no lynch now, there'll be at least one less suspect tomorrow.

This is clearly incorrect. Scum could nightkill you, in which case there is not one less suspect. No lynch gives scum the chance to take whatever endgame suits them best.

[Mgm]

If they lynch me, you'll have no problem lynching MBL. Problem solved.

[Patrick]

I find your position strange to say the least. You seem to think MBL is innocent, yet you're pushing for no lynch and then telling scum that if they kill you they'll achieve an MBL lynch tomorrow. What bothers me greatly is the possibility of an endgame where scum can manipulate you into lynching me. I obviously trust your alignment, but I don't trust your judgement at all. It would be appreciated if you'd stop making up reasons to be suspicious of me and look at the facts. What do you think of the stuff posted by Glork there?

[Mgm]

Elaborate, then. Tell me why

you

think that Patrick is scum, rather than citing old arguments that MBL has made.

Go read those "old" arguments and act on them.

[Mr Stoofer]

I want post #2222. Any Richie Benaud fans will understand.

[Mgm]

Besides, with 4 players and 1 standard mafia it's the best strategy to no lynch.
Text book example.

[Patrick]

Besides, with 4 players and 1 standard mafia it's the best strategy to no lynch.
Text book example.

PHAIL. Do not apply this blindly without looking at the specific situation. The strategy you've given is only if you have no confirmed innocents. There may be other reasons for no lynching (cops and docs alive etc) but none of that applies here.