Open 316 - Hard Boiled (Day Two)

[Amrun]

Re: LittleGrey - I'm not sure why she RVS vote when she has a suspicion. She even calls it an RVS vote, which to me is just.... wonky. There's enough content now, there's no need to cast an RVS vote.

That much is obvious. I want to know what you think that says about his alignment.

[swankidelic]

Those are all suspicions. LittleGrey looks scummy.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla (and all) what do you think of littlegrey's vote shenanigams?

I am interested in hearing Hoopla's gamebreaking plan for evaluation.

zmuffin is on the right track as far as a plan goes. I can go into more detail when everyone has responded to the possibility of a massclaim/partial massclaim.

Looking back on LittleGrey, it is a little unusual to present an opinion in that manner, yet random-vote elsewhere. It could easily be interpreted as scum trying to tick boxes by appearing to have suspicions - you need to invent stances. Yet, upon the invention, he doesn't realise he needs to attack in that direction. If he were town, you'd expect him to be more deeply connected to his reads, as these reads would be genuine, thus improving the chances of him lining them purely due to them being believed, rather than invented.

That is a big leap in logic - it could just as easily be explained by him being careless. But it's noteworthy nonetheless.

~~

You sound genuine in your desire to break the setup, though. I'm tempted to give up hopes of winning and follow through with your proposed experiment. In the end, I don't really have any metaknowledge of you, I simply don't trust you.

So, I sound genuine in my desire to break the set-up? Yet you simply don't trust me? That doesn't really match up - as "breaking the set-up" is something only town can do (something you believe I was genuine with).

[Amrun]

What about smuffin's speculation was scummy, swank?

[swankidelic]

What about smuffin's speculation was scummy, swank?

In addition to his support of a risky plan, Muffin's interpretation would completely neutralize one of the town's better PRs. When I bring up counterclaim issues, his tone is pretty dismissive - I think it's a much bigger vulnerability the plan than he does.

So, I sound genuine in my desire to break the set-up? Yet you simply don't trust me? That doesn't really match up - as "breaking the set-up" is something only town can do (something you believe I was genuine with).

Let me put it this way, then: any towntell there might be in your interest in breaking the setup isn't enough to make me hand the reins over to you.

[LittleGrey]

Yeah, I made my random vote before I started posting the other stuff. I

knew

someone would make a fuss out of that, which is why I said RVS vote. It was simply random.

I'm still suspicious of Muffin but I don't want to go around making serious votes for people until I have enough evidence. The game just started, and apparently we already need a replacement. So until everyone posts enough for valid reads, I don't see the point on making serious votes.

[Hoopla]

Let me put it this way, then: any towntell there might be in your interest in breaking the setup isn't enough to make me hand the reins over to you.

I don't know how you can come to the conclusion of "not wanting to hand the reins over to me", when you haven't even heard what I have to say. It sounds like you're preemptively positioning yourself to be against it no matter what, rather than waiting to evaluate it from a balanced perspective.

[Hoopla]

Littlegrey; do you have much experience playing mafia online? Have you played in real life?

[swankidelic]

There's little that's preemptive about my skepticism of your plan. I posted my interpretation, and I didn't like what I foresaw. Muffin elaborated, and again, I didn't like how it would turn out. You then said yourself that Muffin is on the right track. Subjectively, from my point of view, if we were to go ahead with with plan I would be betting that Hoopla isn't scum trying to pull an epic gambit, and I'd *also* be betting that it works. I'm not a good gambler, I'm not ready to take those risks.

Ok, you ready for a curveball? Here's the deal. I continue to play at MafiaScum because I like the people here. I don't actually want to be a wet blanket and spoil your fun, Hoopla. I'm also interested, in an objective way, in how the setup can be broken - I'd like to start modding and creating my own setups, eventually. It will be a lot of fun for you and I and everyone here to throw caution to the wind and see how this works out.

So let me throw my hat into this ring. I'll throw in for the massclaim. I'll consider this game from an objective point of view, and if Hoopla is scum, well, I'll admit that I gave her the game. If not, and we pull this off, it'll be fun and a really neat advancement in the Mafia state-of-the-art.

[Hoopla]

This is an open game. What I propose can be fact-checked, critiqued, refined (or abandoned altogether if deemed suboptimal). There are no hidden roles or mechanics that can screw things over behind the scenes, with scum secretly maneuvering things in their direction, forcing town to place trust in certain people or roles. We have all the information - we can project, and we can work out how favourable a plan could/should be for each alignment.

Risk aversion isn't a valid out - if we deemed a plan to have an 80% chance of being successful, or a win if we can eliminate all but 1 or 2 of the VT-pool, then it is a viable play when compared to playing it straight, which is at best a 60% chance (probably closer to 40-50% since this set-up has gone 1 for 4 so far for town). You don't need to bet I'm not scum any more than you need to bet on every other player's alignment. We only have ~3 mislynches - we have to make a lot of bets on certain people being town throughout the game. That is just how it goes. However, I'm decently confident that a plan is workable

even if

I'm included as one of the deaths at some point.

[jakesh97]

Hey everyone! Real life has been tying me down with these last few weeks of grade eight, painful stuff. Highschool is gonna be worse so I gotta suck it up.

Wow. LittleGrey attempts to buddy me then switches his suspicion. Wonderful, it seems Andrew isnt the only VI walking around in here.

Massclaim this early? With the setup, it wouldnt be a bad thing to do but itd be very easy for scum to lie at this point. I'd suggest we wait on that which is pretty much what someone said earlier.

[Oversoul]

My idea for claiming is this: basically just the Hider/HT/det-psych claiming and the hider/det-psych co-ordinating night actions. This narrows scum down to a pool of 9 players and also means PRs can avoid each other (with the exception of the vig-tracker). Lynch one. Hider hides behind another (who he/she announces before nightfall). det-psych and vig-tracker would check/kill whoever they want of the remaining. Scum will target the det-psych first prob, then assuming the hider dies we can go from there. Worst-case scenario is that we go into MyLo D2, but that's happened before and turned out well, so 'sall G. Best case scenario, PRs rock scum and we win, gg.

Scum really cannot counter-claim in this setup, so I don't think counter-claims will be an issue, but if they happen, it can be discussed if/when it happens.

Anyway, I figured I'd lay this idea out here as a basis for discussion, BUT I don't think it should actually happen until much later in the day.

Also a good discussion point is whether or not the vig-tracker should choose to be a vig or a tracker. I personally prefer vig. As long as the vig doesn't take out the det-psych N1 with the hider hiding behind

her,

I think it's a much better choice than tracker. Although it depends on the D1 lynch, really. If scum is lynched, Tracker might be a better option.

Am I missing something here or did the detective already (soft)claim? Or are you just using a random pronoun because you feel like it?

I don't think a mass claim is going to be beneficial until it is confirmed whether or we have a vig or a tracker. For your set up wouldn't it be more beneficial to have the detective, especially if Mafia fake claim a vigilante?

[Hoopla]

The Tracker/Vig is allowed to choose their role on N1.

[Amrun]

Oversoul, zmuffin was making fun of me because I shot a claimed psychologist n1 of the last hardboiled and the hider hid behind me and I was nearly lynched - but we lynched scum instead and then I shot scum and we won.

Zmuffin and I were both in that game.

LittleGrey, I saw you say something about "your main account" somewhere. What is it?

[Oversoul]

Ok.

Hoopla, what percentage for success would you give your game-breaking set up? I am a little hesitant to go all in, but if it is for the good of the town I will.

pedit: (is this when you edit your original post as someone makes another?) That makes sense. I was seriously confused when he used her to describe detective lol.

[Amrun]

Well, it was to describe the vig, not the detective. But yes, it was referring to me and my fail and then subsequent win.

[andrew94]

Mild town read on neil from his opening post - displays a lack of understanding that would be ignorant and reckless to post as scum. If he were scum who feared a massclaim plan, I'd expect a more calculated or rhetoric-based response to quell the idea, as opposed to nonsense.

Muffinman's post of laying down a massclaim plan, and investing effort in brainstorming the net value of such a plan indicates an eagerness to corner scum - an inherently town motivated action. If he were scum, he'd have had to have thought about the true consequences much longer, found a loophole or theory that gives scum decent chances of winning, and pass it off as a town-looking plan OR be game enough to make a big bluff and push scum into a suboptimal plan (for them) and try and ride off town points for being pro-plan. I think neither of those situations are as likely as Muffinman being town.

Mildly suspicious of swankidelic for his early attempts to shut down a massclaim idea. Could just be town not prepared/capable of understanding the benefits of a plan, or scum understanding the benefits and wanting out. Post 38 reads slightly artificially, in particular the language shaping the vote for Quilford.

Amrun's reluctance is understandable, given the knowledge she has of some of my scumplay. Luckily there are no numbers in this game!

~ Early days, I know, but this is how I'm seeing things so far.

i agree with what you said above apart from neil's townliness. the way i see it, neil's post 2 is making a point that everyone knows about and has to say that because what else could he say to your massclaim idea? neil's opening post wasnt about massclaim and i can see anyone making his post number 1

[LittleGrey]

Littlegrey; do you have much experience playing mafia online? Have you played in real life?

I've been a member of this site for a while now. Just not on this account.

LittleGrey, I saw you say something about "your main account" somewhere. What is it?

If I told you that would defeat the purpose of me making a new one. Just to be fair, the only person here I've ever been in a game with was zMuffin, but that was a while ago.

[Amrun]

Okay, but you are not a newbie. That is what is really important.

That means I'm happier with my vote on you.

[DarkFlashlight]

Wonderful, it seems Andrew isnt the only VI walking around in here.

I loathe this. I made a list of reasons why:
1. Saying someone is a VI is insulting. It will not make anyone like you if you call someone stupid. "But you don't have to be liked to be town!" True, you have to be helpful. Pointing out VI's is about as helpful as BEING a VI. If someone truly is screwing up the game, we'll all catch it, no need to be the warning siren.
2. Saying someone is a VI is calling them town. Assuming you're also town, why are you dragging down a teammate? Regardless of not helping you don't need to stir up something stupid when you know there will be no results.
3. You're basing it off 3 pages. I hardly find that an appropriate amount of time to write someone off completely.
4. It's so elitist that I want to punch you. By saying that, you're not only saying that you don't care about what they say, you're telling everyone else that they should look at that person with low regards.





Moving on to actually important things.

Hoopla, you've been mighty discrete. I believe most if not everyone is willing to try your crazy strategy, but you seem to be keeping it underwraps. You even said that after you say it, we don't have to do it, so why are you so hesitant?


LittleGrey, you made a whole account so that no one could use meta on you? That comes off as apprehensive. Surely you thought of that before you made the account.

[Amrun]

DarkFlashlight, you have an otter icon so I love you, but please try something more closely resembling content soon.

[jakesh97]

It's the internet, deal with it.

Also, Im pretty sure alot of people here will agree that andrew is a VI or IS every game. I was stating before anyone suggests: Oh, PL! Oh PL!

Policy Lynches are stupid if it's just because of a VI meta. This is what I was trying to get out. Nobody will improve if you don't let them play and i'm sure alot of people here would agree with me :/
calm your tits.

[DarkFlashlight]

Aw, that's so cute. Be patient, one of my questions will be aimed at you eventually, Amrun.

Here you go, just for irony:

Spoiler: Unnecessary ISO

/confirm

Zmuffin are you scum y/n

Your avatar begs to differ.

I wouldn't mind a massclaim - if one has never been tried before.

The previous hard boiled was the first one town ever won, so if this is a new idea for this set up, I'll consider it (but not necessarily agree).

But I am slightly worried because I've seen Hooplascum manipulate the numbers before... She is the queen of numbers.

But I agree that a massclaim shuldnt happen until we have some gameplay with which to judge counterclaims etc

VOTE: LittleGrey

You FoS someone pre-game and then RVS vote someone else while maintaining your FoS might be scum?

Hell. No.


Also, zmuffin, don't rub it in.

Hoopla (and all) what do you think of littlegrey's vote shenanigams?

I am interested in hearing Hoopla's gamebreaking plan for evaluation.

Re: LittleGrey - I'm not sure why she RVS vote when she has a suspicion. She even calls it an RVS vote, which to me is just.... wonky. There's enough content now, there's no need to cast an RVS vote.

That much is obvious. I want to know what you think that says about his alignment.

What about smuffin's speculation was scummy, swank?

Oversoul, zmuffin was making fun of me because I shot a claimed psychologist n1 of the last hardboiled and the hider hid behind me and I was nearly lynched - but we lynched scum instead and then I shot scum and we won.

Zmuffin and I were both in that game.

LittleGrey, I saw you say something about "your main account" somewhere. What is it?

Well, it was to describe the vig, not the detective. But yes, it was referring to me and my fail and then subsequent win.

Okay, but you are not a newbie. That is what is really important.

That means I'm happier with my vote on you.

DarkFlashlight, you have an otter icon so I love you, but please try something more closely resembling content soon.

If that's the definition of content, I actually think I'm doing fine. Oh, btw, I put asterisks by your name on the times that you did...anything.

Everyone is waiting for more information Hoopla's grand plan, yourself included. Please stop playing pretentious, it's greatly annoying.

Also, Im pretty sure alot of people here will agree that andrew is a VI or IS every game. I was stating before anyone suggests: Oh, PL! Oh PL!

You'll notice I didn't mention any names in that post. I wasn't referring to Andrew at all. But sharing your thoughts isn't a bad thing. Anyway, dragging you away from that, why point out VI's if you don't want to policy lynch them?

[jakesh97]

But I called Andrew AND LittleGrey a VI in the post you complained about.

Policy Lynches are stupid if it's just because of a VI meta.

This is what I was trying to get out.

I never state my FULL reasoning for anything in one post. I'd rather see peoples reaction and now I have yours. In my opinion, Reactions to other statements provide the biggest reads in the game.

[Amrun]

I didn't say I was great paragon of content - as it is very early game - but the fact remains that several things have happened that ARE noteworthy and you have managed to avoid them all, Flashlight.