Open 215 - Gurgi EC8 - Game Show Mafia, Over

[farside22]

Like I said I can see some WIFOM with option 1 but I'm not going there and I don't like the implications to do so. This isn't lets help scum try and WIFOM the town, this is how do we use a possible weak cop to the town advantage.

[wolframnhart]

and of course that is assuming there even is a weak cop, there is a chance for 0 weak cop.

[chnorek]

idea behind investigating most town people works best in my opinion.
cops claim at some point (close to end of day) and say who they are going to investigate during night.

If we are unlucky we will loose only cop we had.
If we have more than one cop it will probably benefit us.


Im curious about Crino, Sandman and mavsfan opinion.

[yawetag]

No sooner had the two new members arrived, the group got down to business. Votes moved back-and-forth, the *ding* sound echoing above everyone's voices. Talk of investigations began, bringing about an argument or two. However, players were still hesitant to accuse each other -- probably to keep the eyes off themself.

Day 1 - Vote Count #2

Current as of

Post #52

Vel-Rahn Koon

- 2 (Cirno, SensFan)

wolframnhart

- 2 (mavsfan41, farside22)

Cirno

- 1 (Mr.Sandman)

chnorek

- 1 (Vel-Rahn Koon)

Not Voting:

chnorek, wolframnhart

It takes

5 votes

to kill a contestant.

[yawetag]

V/LA 04/14-22

. I will be away from computer 04/17 to 04/21.

[Mr.Sandman]

Sorry, been away the last couple of days

I agree with chronek. I think the cops should claim towards the end of the day and say who they intend to investigate. Leaving hints leaves things too open to ambiguity. It seems that this means a player has to have a strong townie read from early on and drop hints. Any changes of opinion later in the day, which is entirely possible, would just cause confusion the next day. The outcome of the lynch may also affect who the person wishes to investigate. Before anyone hammers anyone, I think cops should say who they'd investigate if the person flips scum and if they don't. I think even if the scum kill confuses things, having concrete information about who investigated who will be of more advantage to us.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

idea behind investigating most town people works best in my opinion.
cops claim at some point (close to end of day) and say who they are going to investigate during night.

If we are unlucky we will loose only cop we had.
If we have more than one cop it will probably benefit us.


Im curious about Crino, Sandman and mavsfan opinion.

I don't agree with this. Why should the cops out themselves when we have a mechanism to keep the cops hidden?

All

players at the end of the day should hyper claim who they'd investigate if they were a cop. That keeps any cops hidden so that the Mafia don't have any extra information.

I also think that any cops should all investigate tonight. The only possible way we lose the game today is if we have 3 cops (which is only a 12.5% chance) and we have to then mislynch Town, and 2 of our 3 cops investigate Mafia. That would make it 5/2 tonight after the lynch, the cops would both die, making it 3/2, and the Mafia kill would make it 2/2, which is a Mafia win. But that doesn't take into account the fact that the Mafia might target one of the cops targeting a Mafia so their kill would be wasted in that case.

More likely than not we're going to have either one or two cops based on the weighting for the setup. And since tonight is more likely than not the only night we're going to get, I think that any cops should investigate tonight to maximize our information tomorrow. Some of it could very well be WIFOM'd to death, as farside pointed out, but I think that the trade off of extra information is worth it. It's not like all we have to go off of is the Night kills and claims. We have all the day talk available for analysis as well.

I don't think there's any way we can "break" the setup, but we can take steps to ensure we get max info out of it.

Does anyone see anything wrong with everyone hyper copping tonight and any cops actually going ahead and investigating their declared targets?

We should also come up with a logical way to decide who hypercops who, because we don't want two people "investigating" the same person. My instinct is that the most pro-town player should choose first and then declare who is next and so on.

[farside22]

I don't see why 2 players can't say they targeted the same person Vel. You would be forcing everyone to hypoclaim each other almost.
Also Vel what do you think of the idea of a weak cop investigating someone who they feel is town over scum with this set up.


chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

[SensFan]

I don't see why 2 players can't say they targeted the same person Vel. You would be forcing everyone to hypoclaim each other almost.
Also Vel what do you think of the idea of a weak cop investigating someone who they feel is town over scum with this set up.


chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

If two players are both Cops and target the same player, then we lose if that person is Scum.

[chnorek]

chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

in worst case we will loose our cop (if we have 1)
if we have no cops at all we loose nothing
if we have 2 cops we have 1 confirmed read on D2
if we have 3 cops we have 2 confirmed reads on D2

if we go with hypocop strategy we have no confirmed reads until cop die (this can be D2, D3 or never).
if we are going to end up with lylo tommorow (and this will happen if we mislynch today) the more we know the better.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I don't see why 2 players can't say they targeted the same person Vel. You would be forcing everyone to hypoclaim each other almost.

Right. That would prevent any other variables from cropping up. If only 1 person "investigates" player X, then we know that anything that happens to that 1 person is either because of his ''investigation" or because of Mafia actions. If two or 3 people "investigate" player X, then you start getting too many scenarios cropping up as to why things happened the way they did once Day 2 rolls around.

I'm having some thought here that actually having

more

people investigate player X could be good for us by giving us more info, although I need to think through it.

Also Vel what do you think of the idea of a weak cop investigating someone who they feel is town over scum with this set up.

I agree that cops should investigate town. We're in LyLo tomorrow if all we do is mislynch Town today. If cops investigate scum we're that much closer to a loss.

But you then run into the issue of believing any cop claims tomorrow. Someone who comes out on Day 2 and says "I'm a cop, and yesterday I hypo'd X as stated and I"m still here, so X must be Town" - you can't trust that right off the bat. It could easily be scum fake claiming it.

The game's not going to be as simple as "follow the cop". We're going to have to temper any claims with a lot of careful analysis.

[farside22]

chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

in worst case we will loose our cop (if we have 1)
if we have no cops at all we loose nothing
if we have 2 cops we have 1 confirmed read on D2
if we have 3 cops we have 2 confirmed reads on D2

if we go with hypocop strategy we have no confirmed reads until cop die (this can be D2, D3 or never).
if we are going to end up with lylo tommorow (and this will happen if we mislynch today) the more we know the better.

unvote:
vote: Chnorok

@Sens that is a good point but if everyone just claims who they will target and it's not the same person we might as well almost do a circle hypocheck claim.
Then there is Vel's idea of having the most townie person saying who they would check and doing popcorn. I would suggest maybe doing this idea closer to the end of the day. I would rather force those who are scummiest to pick last on who they would check.

[farside22]

I agree that cops should investigate town. We're in LyLo tomorrow if all we do is mislynch Town today. If cops investigate scum we're that much closer to a loss.

But you then run into the issue of believing any cop claims tomorrow. Someone who comes out on Day 2 and says "I'm a cop, and yesterday I hypo'd X as stated and I"m still here, so X must be Town" - you can't trust that right off the bat. It could easily be scum fake claiming it.

The game's not going to be as simple as "follow the cop". We're going to have to temper any claims with a lot of careful analysis.

This is why I ask about 20 questions to people if there is a claim and it depends on how the player acted day 1 and variable other things that a smart town player should do in case of a claim.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

in worst case we will loose our cop (if we have 1)
if we have no cops at all we loose nothing
if we have 2 cops we have 1 confirmed read on D2
if we have 3 cops we have 2 confirmed reads on D2

if we go with hypocop strategy we have no confirmed reads until cop die (this can be D2, D3 or never).
if we are going to end up with lylo tommorow (and this will happen if we mislynch today) the more we know the better.

Interesting.

But how do you tell if the one cop died because he investigated Mafia or because he was killed by the Mafia as the kill choice?

If the cop claims and declares who he's going to target, the Mafia can engineer the night to make it look any way they want.

With 2 cops the Mafia can only engineer 1 of the investigations. The other one would be clear.

None of that still prevents the Mafia from fake-claiming.

I think cops outright claiming introduces WIFOM. hypocopping doesn't introduce the WIFOM as much, but its drawback is that we can't be sure of results.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

farside: do you see a benefit to more than one person checking player X? I'm not seeing it, but I think you do and I'd like to hear it.

[SensFan]

farside: do you see a benefit to more than one person checking player X? I'm not seeing it, but I think you do and I'd like to hear it.

The obvious benefit is that if 1 person investigates VRK, and VRK is town, then Scum can kill them to frame VRK. If 2 people investigate VRK, VRK can't be framed (but can just be killed).

I don't think it's quite worth it.

[chnorek]

chnorek and Sandman: Saying that cops should claim at the end of the day is a terrible idea. Why would you even say this?

in worst case we will loose our cop (if we have 1)
if we have no cops at all we loose nothing
if we have 2 cops we have 1 confirmed read on D2
if we have 3 cops we have 2 confirmed reads on D2

if we go with hypocop strategy we have no confirmed reads until cop die (this can be D2, D3 or never).
if we are going to end up with lylo tommorow (and this will happen if we mislynch today) the more we know the better.

Interesting.

But how do you tell if the one cop died because he investigated Mafia or because he was killed by the Mafia as the kill choice?

If the cop claims and declares who he's going to target, the Mafia can engineer the night to make it look any way they want.

With 2 cops the Mafia can only engineer 1 of the investigations. The other one would be clear.

None of that still prevents the Mafia from fake-claiming.

I think cops outright claiming introduces WIFOM. hypocopping doesn't introduce the WIFOM as much, but its drawback is that we can't be sure of results.

yes fake claims are possible
yes mafia can engineer NK to make it look like investigated person was a scum.
in first place i would be looking for confirmed town, not possible scum (for reason said above). guess that makes the chances of real result not as simple as i described, will need to think about it a bit.

[Cirno]

I like VRK's plan. Spread out the investigations.

Vote: Farside22

call it gut but i'll add some proper reasoning when I get home.

[chnorek]

Cirno it takes suspiciously long.

[Mr.Sandman]

If we go with everyone saying who they think is most town at the end of the day, I still think it should take into consideration whatever the lynchee flips. I think this is important because if the flip is unexpected, the player that the cop initially thought looked town now looks scummy, do they still investigate? If they don't, they will likely lose credibility if they claim at a later stage in the game

[farside22]

farside: do you see a benefit to more than one person checking player X? I'm not seeing it, but I think you do and I'd like to hear it.

I didn't think of there being more then one weak cop. So I retract my thought on the claims and do where each person claims a seperate person.

[farside22]

If we go with everyone saying who they think is most town at the end of the day, I still think it should take into consideration whatever the lynchee flips. I think this is important because if the flip is unexpected, the player that the cop initially thought looked town now looks scummy, do they still investigate? If they don't, they will likely lose credibility if they claim at a later stage in the game

Valid point and this may be where one person will have to say they will check a player that someone else claimed they would check.

So basically near the end as we get closer to lynch who ever was assigned to the player that will be lynched can pick another player they would hypothetically check.
This could lead if 2 weak cops checking the same person. So ti's a thought in progress right now.

Mr. Sandman why did you agree that the cops outting themselves was a good idea?

[Cirno]

Reading back i probably gut my feeling from farside's vote on wolf in 48.

I'll leave the strategy discussion to you all.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

farside, can you better explain 70 please?

mavsfan, anything to add to the discussion besides the NHL?

Cirno, why do you feel that you don't need to participate in the strategy discussion?

[wolframnhart]

@Cirno

So is it strong enough of a gut to leave the vote where it is? Is there nothing you want to ask farside to see if your gut is right?