/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Incognito]

Vote Count #3 of Day 1

hohum (3) <-~ MiteyMouse, Sajin, Papa Zito
Sajin (1) <-~ hohum
MiteyMouse (1) <-~ Nikanor

Not voting (4) <-~ Cojin, qwints, Scien, Zorblag

With 9 alive, 5 will do it.

Friday, August 21st at 9 P.M. EDT.

[Cojin]

I've only ever played with you and qwints. In the game I played with you where you were scum, your play was suboptimal. So from my point of view, you were the best target for a randomvote.

Please elaborate on why qwintz was not the better choice.

[Nikanor]

Please elaborate on why qwintz was not the better choice.

We're getting into the territory of out-of-thread conversation. Let's just say that while you were both scum, he was lynched day two, you were lynched day one.

[Cojin]

We're getting into the territory of out-of-thread conversation

not out of thread, you are makeing a refrence to meta on both accounts, meta is fair game.

[Sajin]

If the game is completed its linkable and able to be referenced.

[Nikanor]

They are both in progress, which is why I don't want to talk about them any more.

[Nikanor]

EBWOP: If you want, I can provide links, but that is all I can/will do.

[MiteyMouse]

I'm not going to lie. I did not read my PM carefully until after the game started. Actually, it was not until Zorblag called me on my post about the Scum needing to die to win the game. I read it carefully after that.

[Papa Zito]

Sure is quiet around here.

Not voting (4) <-~ Cojin, qwints, Scien, Zorblag

This is bad.

[hohum]

I owe you guys a post, but I'm probably not going to have time until much later today.

@Mod: prod qwints please

I think we've heard from everyone else, right?

[qwints]

Sorry, I was out of town all weekend and hadn't checked the thread yet.

I'm really not sure how to evaluate Sajin's stupidity. I thought the town pm was quite clear. The power of that tell is, of course, lessened because it is an open game. But I think there's still information to be gained from it. Sajin has claimed that he believed chosen got a role pm - that means we can rule out the possibility he was town laying a trap.

So, which is more likely?
Town false-claiming chosen believing chosen got a p.m.
or
Scum false-claiming chosen.

The former just doesn't make sense. As I'm sure someone pointed out, if chosen claim and townies don't - town wins regardless of what scum do (under Sajin's mistaken reading of the rules). Any townie claiming chosen ruins town's chances of a win.

vote: Sajin

Remember,

Incognito just told me that chosen do not know they are chosen but scum do. I thought the chosen knew. There goes my mass claim idea.

Thanks for the rules update. Appreciated.

I am willing to be the lynch but now instead of knowing I am not the chosen, I could be one. That sucks.

No townie should have false claimed given Incognito's stated beliefs about the game. Lynch the obv-scum.

[Nikanor]

So, which is more likely?
Town false-claiming chosen believing chosen got a p.m.
or
Scum false-claiming chosen.

Don't start with this again. He never claimed. In fact, he said he WASN'T chosen, because he didn't get a pm. I think you know Sajin is chosen, but forget that townies do not know their chosenness.

Unvote. Vote: qwints

Any townie claiming chosen ruins town's chances of a win.

Explain please.

[Papa Zito]

That was certainly worth waiting for.

unvote: hohum
vote: qwints

[qwints]

I read this to be a claim.

I got the role PM before I possibly got another PM saying I was chosen.

The fact that you did not get such a PM says to me your not chosen and a safe lynch.

vote hohum

[Nikanor]

I got the (Townie) role PM before I

possibly

got another PM saying I was chosen.

[qwints]

OK, I got mixed up in the counter-factuals.

I took it as a given that no townies knew about the 2nd round of pm's designating the chosen (since they didn't actually exist.) I suppose townie-Sajin could mistakenly have believed those pm's were actually sent and believed he was not revealing anything by mentioning their existence.

Re-reading, I realized that Sajin's original mass claim proposal suggested that all townies tell the truth. This suggests that townie-Sajin would never false-claim. It does make me wonder why he did not explicitly claim VT instead of leaving it hanging if what he believed were true.

Sajin - why didn't you claim in your initial post if you believed you had a forced town-win?

[Nikanor]

It does make me wonder why he did not explicitly claim VT instead of leaving it hanging if what he believed were true.

I think it's pretty obvious, but I'll let Sajin address this properly first.

[Scien]

Sorry folks, its hard for me to post on weekends. Here is some of my thoughts during reread.

This was in Zorblag's initial post:

First, scum can daytalk.

I know you probably have good reason for posting this, would you mind telling me why? Or are you wanting to leave that vague?

I will not tell you what my concern was until we have everyone contribute to the questions that are out at the moment. Please keep this in mind and comment on this if/when I forget about mentioning it.

I too didn't fully understand if the Chosen would receive PMs, but I also didn't want to spoil anything until I got things answered from the mod. I know I suggested this, but I wanted to explicitly state it since I promised I would.

Scien, Troll thinks that lynching probably still does be in the towns interest. We have two routes to victory in this game. We can keep the chosen alive or lynch the scum. Either one will win just fine whether or not we do the other. If we never lynch then the scum eventually have the advantage as town has to lynch before scum has to night kill. Early lynches both give us information and are less likely to hit a chosen (based on numbers of other targets available) than later lynches if we're just letting the scum kill at night.

It do be a tricky issue but Troll be pretty sure that reasoned lynches will tend to favor the town.

All this makes sense. However I still urge that people don't discount a no-lynch day in the future if it seems to benefit the town. I understand that it might be risky... and looking at it generally might help scum, but in isolated cases can be a powerful tool for town.

Proof by counter-example, lets say we get close to game end and no chosen are hit yet. People have played well, and a target is hard to find for a day lynch. We have the ability to no-lynch and close to end game that would force the scum to non-lynch as well, buying some time to make a more informed decision. Or how about a similar case were we try to trick the scum into lynching into the town win condition... Hey never discount petty tricks, they often work.

Why are you trying to be sneaky Scien?

Did I answer this to your satisfaction with the below?

I answered the questions that were posed, without explicitly bringing out the rules misconception. I posed my own questions, hoping to further include others in conversation. I waited/am waiting to fully explain my position until we get others to comment.

Hence 'sneaky'.

We could have allowed the other scum to walk right into the same mistake. But meh, thats not a possibility now.

That was easy.

Heh, I don't think I have ever heard you so silent before. Strange.

I'd rather conduct productive lynches rather than try and play "a perfect game" because it gives the scum less opportunity to introduce WIOFM into the town's thought processes.

I was not suggesting a 'perfect' game. I was suggesting that we not ignore a tool of the town while we still have it.

This question is still out I believe:

If anyone here is scum, they would know the chosen. Why would they come right out with a 'rolefish' if the 'fished' the roles already through game setup PMs? Why be as positive as you are that this is a scum tell? I don't hold this suspicious yet, but would like to hear your reasoning.

[On people not voting] This is bad.

I disagree and I can go all into that fight again if you guys wish. However if you are just asking for my main suspicion at the moment it is to Hohum.
So

FOS: Hohum

. This is due to the question out to Hohum above.

Although Qwints is looking strange to me at the moment, now that I am catching up:
People are already on the path of clarifying his posts with anything I would have asked, so I will stay out of it until something bugging me is left unsaid.

[qwints]

What do you plan to do if we get a week into the game and one player no has done anything helpful so far as participation goes? What if there be more than one player in that category?

Pressuring lurkers is generally useful for the game. I think, however, that the set-up would discourage scum from lurking.

Based on your role what do you think your chances of being the chosen are and why? For Troll the answer be about 1/6. Troll will give reasons after all have answered.

Chance of not being veto'd (6/7?) * Chance of being randomly chosen (1/3) = 6/21 = 2/7.
I'm really curious to hear how you got 1/6.

What thoughts do any have about how we can use the setup to our advantage?

No-lynching and/or random-lynching [if there is a good way to do so] are powerful tools in the town's arsenal.

[Scien]

No-lynching and/or random-lynching [if there is a good way to do so] are powerful tools in the town's arsenal.

I would like to hear what you thinking is behind the random lynching. Are you suggesting fully random lynching? Or what?

[qwints]

Because random-lynching is more likely to hit non-chosen or scum instead of chosen, it might make sense to incorporate a random element into choosing who to lynch. Fully random lynching is not a good option because lynching one chosen hurts us much more than lynching one scum helps us. But in limited situations, such as a D3 w/ both chosen still alive and 1 scum dead, it could prove useful.

[Scien]

Because random-lynching is more likely to hit non-chosen or scum instead of chosen, it might make sense to incorporate a random element into choosing who to lynch.

Eh?! How so. How would random-lynching be MORE likely to hit a non-chosen?

[Scien]

Non-chosen includes scum in that above comment.

Random is random... everyone is equally likely right? Scum, non-chosen, and chosen alike.

[Cojin]

Sure is quiet around here.

Incognito wrote:
Not voting (4) <-~ Cojin, qwints, Scien, Zorblag

This is bad.

How so? it would seem to me only scum would want everyone voting, and to have everyone voting quickly.

[qwints]

@Scien, because there are more players who aren't chosen than players who are. Killing randomly is thus more likely to hit one of the former than the latter.