/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Scien]

You don't see that you are completely ignoring information that you can gain by examining others play by using that method? How is ignoring information a good thing?

This mentality either reeks of a basic misunderstanding, or a scum suggestion. Sounds very much like an attempt to get the town to hit pro-town playing chosen. You disagree?

[Incognito]

Vote Count #4 of Day 1

hohum (2) <-~ MiteyMouse, Sajin
Sajin (2) <-~ hohum, qwints
qwints (2) <-~ Nikanor, Papa Zito

Not voting (3) <-~ Cojin, Scien, Zorblag

With 9 living, 5 will do it.

Friday, August 21st at 9 P.M. EDT.

[Sajin]

So qwints wants to vote me based on a read then proposes a "random" lynch. Contradictory much?

Re-reading, I realized that Sajin's original mass claim proposal suggested that all townies tell the truth. This suggests that townie-Sajin would never false-claim. It does make me wonder why he did not explicitly claim VT instead of leaving it hanging if what he believed were true.

Sajin - why didn't you claim in your initial post if you believed you had a forced town-win?

Why would I claim something in my initial post that would hurt us unless we all went through with the plan? Also, this is a strawman argument at best and misrepresentation at worst. Your setting up the statement of forced-town win to explain why I did not act a certain way.


@Scien can you comment about my math?

[Scien]

@Scien can you comment about my math?

Sure, I can attempt too. Although I typically dislike these exercises a bit due to completely ignoring information gained through the game. Plus you have admitted yourself that it is an overly simplified analysis. Fair, but that means I have to give everything a bit more thought about full implications.

2: We try to save chosen. From a purely mathmatical standpoint we have to avoid lynching 2 people of 7 (scum are indifferent when it comes to these odds). This means that scum playing to make this harderest on us would not kill and we would have to lynch correctly 5 times of the 5.

Not necessarily. The scum will most likely want to kill at night, at least in early game. This means that we don't have to lynch at all, and the scum would be doing some of the work here. I know that you are just setting up the black and white cases, and had to pick a worst case, but still I believe that this would be a bit atypical. I could be wrong, but meh.

1 Lynch scum: 7 players 3 lynches to catch 2 of 7.

I think you are saying if we hit scum on day 1? Then we would have 4 chances to hit 1 out of 7 right? Or did I miscount.

From there it goes into a bunch of statistics, which might be correct but I am not going to analyze, due to my views on how information effects the game too much to discount.

I will say I understand how lynching is pretty close to being as valuable here as it is in normal mafia. However I still hold that there might be times where it would be better to see if the mafia would make a move while we wait. All depends on current game state.

[Zorblag]

This last weekend was unexpectedly long and Troll now be most tired; Troll's cave beckons for a good long sleep but Troll will get a post in first.

Thank you for your answers to the questions Cojin and qwints. All but hohum have now answered so Troll will add a bit more.

Given the short (two week) deadlines Troll thinks that activity will be more important that normal. This makes the scum ability to day talk more troublesome than it might otherwise be as them have more of a chance to coordinate lurking should them choose. Troll will say now that it be the duty of all town members to be active and not give the rest of the town a reason to worry about you no being about. Troll very much hopes that it no will be an issue this game but Troll also plans to take a harder stance than normal. If people be lurking it be severely anti-town this game so Troll will be very willing to lynch based on that.

Troll was interested to see who would question Troll's 1/6 chances of being a chosen. The easy answers to give be 2/7; if the scum excluded someone at random then the town would each have a 2/7 chance. Some gave themself a 1/3 chance; this assumes that them no were the one that was excluded and be a reasonable answer as well. Troll be arrogant and assumed that Troll had about a 1/2 chance of being picked to be excluded given the reputation Troll has with the others that be in the game. If Troll has a 1/2 chance of being excluded and then a 2/6 chance of being a chosen if Troll no was excluded that gives Troll about a 1/6 chance of being a chosen.

Actually, Troll has since adjusted Troll's odds of being the chosen down since the game started. Troll threw some things out there with little explanation right at the start in part to see if any would use them as a reason to attack Troll at all. No one seems to have. The scum have a reason to try to take advantage of openings that the chosen give to make attacks.

Troll no will try to come up with odds for Troll's chances of being s chosen at this point but them be low enough that Troll would currently consider Troll a fairly safe lynch if the town was ever in a spot where a lynch needed to be made and the only thing that was important was avoiding a chosen one (e.g. a 6 players left, both scum, both chosen, the scum are forcing the town to lynch by not killing at night and there isn't good consensus on who is scum.)

Troll believes that Sajin is more likely to be town than scum by a fair amount. His misunderstanding is pretty unexpected. Troll was jumping on it right at the start without explanation for the reactions as much as anything else. If the lynch looked like it was eminent Troll thought Troll could stop things. The thing that makes the misunderstanding look genuine right from the start which no one else has really commented on is that Sajin's plan is a really excellent one if his understanding of the rules was correct. As scum, he wouldn't have anything to gain by fishing (him would know who the chosen are already) and a lot to loose by people doing what him suggested. It's possible that he's faked the entire misunderstanding but I don't think him would have held onto it for as long as him did or the way that him did if that were the case.

Scien, Troll sees the question of whether scum can talk during the day come up much more often than it should. In this case Troll was preemptively pointing that out for those who no had fully read and understood the rules. The conversation in these first four pages leads Troll to believe that it was worth doing. The same thing went for the two week deadlines. Further, concerning the no lynch option Troll does plan to keep an open mind but there be an issue Troll thinks you be omitting that Troll will bring up after the game be over or when it becomes pertinent.

Troll will need to read through the game again to figure out where else Troll's suspicions lie for now. hohum be blustery but that do be how him plays so it no means that much. Papa Zito seems flightier than normal (that no be a great term but Troll will use it for now) and Scien seems overly tentative. Past that Troll needs to take the time when Troll be more fully awake and aware to look over everything. Troll will have that by tomorrow and apologizes for the delay.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Sajin]

Fully random lynching is not a good option

because lynching one chosen hurts us much more than lynching one scum helps us

. But in limited situations, such as a D3 w/ both chosen still alive and 1 scum dead, it could prove useful.

No. Nailing one scum is worth more than not nailing chosen (vanilla town lynch).

[hohum]

I still intend to comment at some point this evening. I just wanted to pop in and say sajin needs to be lynched.

[Sajin]

Then why are you and the person you requested prodding on coming off the most scummy?

[Papa Zito]

I still intend to comment at some point this evening. I just wanted to pop in and say sajin needs to be lynched.

Why?

[hohum]

Papa Zito: go reread the last 5 pages. I've been spilling reasons.

[hohum]

also, has anyone noticed how papa zito has been basically chainsaw-defending sajin? What's wrong with a little pressure? You sure are quick to tear down potentially useful wagons.

[Papa Zito]

also, has anyone noticed how papa zito has been basically chainsaw-defending sajin? What's wrong with a little pressure? You sure are quick to tear down potentially useful wagons.

Holy crap I'm amazing. I single-handedly tore down an non-existent wagon by asking why!

I'll admit, I

have

been eating my spinach lately.

Qwints or hohum, it's hard to decide. Hohum, your tunneling on this non-issue is extremely scummy. Qwints was trying to re-enact Sajin's misstep in order to get the same reaction, which is also extremely scummy.

Choices, choices.

[hohum]

You attempted to tear down the wagon (which existed) a couple of pages back. It's impolite at best and anti-town at worst to tear a wagon down before any useful information can be garnered out of it.

The fact of the matter is Sajin was doing a pretty good job of dropping other scum tells (which is the reason I'm tunneling on him) until you interceded on his behalf. You mooted any pressure that was on him by bitching about our votes on him. Frankly I don't care how scummy you think I am, because the feeling is mutual.

[Papa Zito]

Lawl.

1. Prove I attempted to tear down his wagon.
2. If I tore it down why are you still pursuing it?
3. Why are you pursuing a wagon on a player that's very very likely town?

It's a Very Blustery Day today.

[Papa Zito]

Sure is quiet around here.

Incognito wrote:
Not voting (4) <-~ Cojin, qwints, Scien, Zorblag

This is bad.

How so? it would seem to me only scum would want everyone voting, and to have everyone voting quickly.

Sorry Cojin, missed this.

I dislike when people are very slow to vote. It smells like scum waiting for a bandwagon to hop on. Also it hurts vote analysis later.

[hohum]

He isn't very very likely town. That's just YOUR read on him. Why don't you make an effort to do some scum hunting instead of providing color commentary?

[hohum]

notice the contradiction there?

PZ says he hates people who are slow to vote, yet he's chainsaw defending sajin, and calling myself and qwints scummy for trying to pressure him.

Also, he quite clearly seems to have inside information since he's so damned sure that Sajin is town.

Anyone else see a pattern emerging here?

[hohum]

1. Prove I attempted to tear down his wagon.

The fact that you voted me, called me scummy a couple pages ago proves that

2. If I tore it down why are you still pursuing it?

Because it merits discussion. Why are you against discussing the merits of a sajin lynch wagon?

3. Why are you pursuing a wagon on a player that's very very likely town?

See my answer above.

[Sajin]

You attempted to tear down the wagon (which existed) a couple of pages back. It's impolite at best and anti-town at worst to tear a wagon down before any useful information can be garnered out of it.

The fact of the matter is Sajin was doing a pretty good job of dropping other scum tells (which is the reason I'm tunneling on him) until you interceded on his behalf. You mooted any pressure that was on him by bitching about our votes on him. Frankly I don't care how scummy you think I am, because the feeling is mutual.

I have yet to see your case. Way to change the subject.

[hohum]

I have yet to see your case. Way to change the subject.

I can't help it you're blind. It's there for everyone else to see, and a few people have at least agreed with me at various points in time. I've laid out a few reasons that I think you're scummy. It's my read on you right now. Deal with it.

[Scien]

Scien, Troll sees the question of whether scum can talk during the day come up much more often than it should. In this case Troll was preemptively pointing that out for those who no had fully read and understood the rules. The conversation in these first four pages leads Troll to believe that it was worth doing. The same thing went for the two week deadlines. Further, concerning the no lynch option Troll does plan to keep an open mind but there be an issue Troll thinks you be omitting that Troll will bring up after the game be over or when it becomes pertinent.

Fair. I'm not going to pressure you for whatever I am missing at the moment because, quite frankly, I don't see it. But the rest of this is what I would expect from a competent player or a townie. At least at the moment.

hohum be blustery but that do be how him plays so it no means that much. Papa Zito seems flightier than normal (that no be a great term but Troll will use it for now) and Scien seems overly tentative.

Hohum? Always 'blustery'. Not in the talks to much sense, but in the overly aggressive sense. Don't get me wrong, this is not necessarily a bad thing, but it a style that makes sense, I take it you know this from your troll speak. My experience with it is only one game, but it is pretty much the same, so null tell for me.

Zito? Flightier? Quiet and rolling with the flow is how I would describe it at the moment... holding judgement at the moment, especially since I have seen him as both town and scum and both times he was more vocal than this.

Me? New game mechanic... I am going to examine carefully. My mention of adjusting to new surroundings based on what I learn, which I mentioned is a trait of mine in a past game with you, was no lie. New ground is going to shut me up a bit until I learn. Please call me out on this if you wish more discussion.

Past that Troll needs to take the time when Troll be more fully awake and aware to look over everything. Troll will have that by tomorrow and apologizes for the delay.

Waiting patiently :)

Besides all that, please answer my previous question Hohum. Here it is again for you:

If anyone here is scum, they would know the chosen. Why would they come right out with a 'rolefish' if the 'fished' the roles already through game setup PMs? Why be as positive as you are that this is a scum tell? I don't hold this suspicious yet, but would like to hear your reasoning.

This is relevant since you are basically tunneling someone at the moment for the mere fact that they are rolefishing.

Thank you for your answer, hopefully.

[Nikanor]

he quite clearly seems to have inside information since he's so damned sure that Sajin is town.

I believe you can at least count Troll and myself in that category as well.

PZ says he hates people who are slow to vote, yet he's chainsaw defending sajin, and calling myself and qwints scummy for trying to pressure him.

Wot? How are these two points connected at all?

[hohum]

How are these two points connected at all?

You REALLY can't see how calling someone out for voting person X while calling everyone else for not voting is scummy?

[Papa Zito]

Uh oh. Scien, Nikanor and Sajin are all chainsaw-defensing me. And Troll to an extent. 5 scum, game over we win.

OR hohum is scum and Sajin is one of the Chosen, amirite?

You REALLY can't see how calling someone out for voting person X while calling everyone else for not voting is scummy?

Why aren't you voting me, hohum?

[Scien]

I wouldn't consider me calling you out for being quiet and just going with the flow the same as defending you.

Not understanding you? Sure.

But defending you? I don't know if I would go that far.