Yeah, I'm getting to it, it's just a longer post and requires more time.
In post 861, Titus wrote:The Case for Lynching Varsoon
1. The lynch should be between Varsoon and Saki because there is about a 1% chance of them both being town. If they both were town, I should be getting a lot more encouragement on this point. Given there is NO certainty in mafia, this is as close as we are going to get that one of the two is indeed scum.
Furthermore, a scum player would know they'd be lynched if the other one dies.
See, this is an issue I have. Why would Varsoon counter-claim, knowing that even if he got Saki lynched (which assumes that was his aim), he'd be lynched next? The generally accepted rate for bussing or gambits like this is usually 2 mis-lynches, not one.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
Varsoon as scum -
Meta Contradictions - Varsoon contradicts or at least confuses the issues here regarding meta in posts . In 127 he says anyone reading his meta can know what alignment
and role
he is. I looked through Varsoon's meta. I haven't found a roleblocker yet. In his next serious post (132), he labels me town for not being concerned about the meta. Post 135 he gives a "firm middle finger" to anyone who uses meta to read him. Those posts take place within 24 hours of each other. Posts 127 and 132 are within two hours of each other.
No,
post 127 was
the firm middle finger to people who use meta by sending them searching for something useless, IIRC.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
His interactions with Saki - On post 180, Varsoon votes Saki as a pressure for a player on VLA. He maintains his vote there the entire time and throughout the CC process, by that point Saki is posting and contributing. I would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate. As we all know, Varsoon didn't CC Saki with fire and brimstone. First he asked if it would be a bad time to CC. Really, who gives a crap if it's a bad time. Having all the information out there is helpful. He seems to go back and forth. Before Saki's claim, Varsoon was convinced Saki was scum. In 280, he really pushes a Saki lynch hard. After Saki's claim, Varsoon leans Saki's scum. Later on, he pushes the line that Saki might be town along with him (despite the one percent probability of that), unless Varsoon is a vanilla townie. Varsoon refuses to claim that. Later, Varsoon is convinced Saki is town and a roleblocker and that he is too. At some point, he should be angry or doubt Saki's town status. Yet, with each passing day Varsoon becomes more convinced.
He says that he won't put a vote on Saki ever?
That doesn't make sense. Town should not be closing off avenues for voting someone unless they are the innocent child, dead or in most cases, cleared by a confirmed cop. The refusal to consider Saki as scum looks more like an exit strategy in case Saki flips town or gets killed at night.
Your argument is directly contradictory in that you say that you would expect town to have some vote flipping as they investigate and then lambast Varsoon for going back and forth on Saki. The bolded I've already seen said by Vote Me. You also say that town shouldn't close off avenues, but that's exactly what you're recommending Varsoon do by not entertaining the chance that Saki is a town roleblocker.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
Suddenly shifting read on me - Varsoon has gone back and forth on my town/scum status repeatedly on Day 1. He opens with me as town, and later says that he starts with players as scum until he can confirm them as town. Post 180, Varsoon says I'm right for not trusting him. 280, Varsoon uses the "too town" argument for what? Saying he needs to be paranoid? He's still convinced I'm town until post 580. Around that point, is when I start to look at the numbers and know that either Varsoon or Saki is likely lying. Post 604 is a load of contradictions I'm a suspect who is town and Saki is a believable town who is scum. That sounds like someone obfuscating any legitimate form of a read. Post 692, Varsoon is upset with Cherry for fueling what he's arguing as a three way town fight. Then, in 715 he says he sees the arguments that I'm supposedly scum. Towards the end of the day, he's second guessing the Titus wagon. It seems like Varsoon is going whichever way the wind blows.
Funny, because that could also apply to your read on Varsoon.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
Total Lack of Anger or Passion - Varsoon was easy going with his claim, he's easy going with votes placed on him, he's emotionally distant while buddying. He's not getting upset with confirmed town players when he feels they are doing something not smart.
How do you measure emotional distance? This could easily be more of a playstyle thing.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
Not Reading the Setup - I don't buy anyone not reading the setup. It's one thing to miscomprehend but I don't think anyone deliberately ignores the setup.
Don't you think that scum would be extra sure to check the set-up?
In post 861, Titus wrote:
jmo - Varsoon is pushing a jmo lynch hard. He's been pushing it since the start of the game due to a suspicious vote jmo made at the start. Given jmo's lurkiness, Varsoon is said almost all of us think he's scum but yet only one votes him. True, but Varsoon didn't exactly change over his vote. I'm not as sure on jmo being scum as I am with Varsoon being scum, so I'm not voting jmo. I'm pretty sure most of us feel the same way. The jmo thing just seems to be going back to a target of convenience and then baiting us by saying we all agree.
I think Varsoon's vote is on jmo.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
Village Idiot (VI) play - This seems to be an almost universal excuse. Oh I'm just playing the village idiot, don't mind me.
Maybe.
In post 861, Titus wrote:
Second/Third/Fourth Level Play - This seems to be a deflection. I'm a village idiot pretending to be something pretending to be something else pretending to be a roleblocker? I don't get this at all. It's not clear and it looks to be a deflection/obfuscation mechanism along the lines of village idiot.
I dunno, I mean he hinted that he was using this as a tactic in
182, so I'm not so sure if it's a deflection.
Oriole and Oreo, they look similar. I'll probably respond to both.