Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[iamausername]

Votecount #3!

sekinj (2) - springlullaby, Nightwolf
germy (1) - Edify
Kairyuu (1) - afatchic
Edify (1) - mykonian
mykonian (1) - germy
afatchic (1) - Kairyuu

Not Voting (5) - alvinz95, Artem, CF Riot, ChuckNorris, sekinj

7 to lynch.

[sekinj]

will address the issues against me tomorrow

[mykonian]

@afatchic: I love it when the scum react in exactly the way I expect. To answer your question, here is what I'm saying:

okay

i like the first post my germy. i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already.

and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.i also agree that miller should claim now and it may help catch a scum early on.

Bolded: You issued a blanket statement saying that germy's initial post was good, that you agreed with it, and that you liked his ideas.

i actually like the claim like that, however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, but i still think miller should claim.

and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked him because they think its more useful to the scum. all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup, since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles. while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be,

i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.

Bolded: You suddenly move from "I agree with what germy says" to "I liked the claim, but I don't like everything he wants us to do, so only millers should claim." A number of people had said by this point that germy was wrong, and that backups shouldn't claim because it would help the scum, so you say that you now don't think that backups should claim. But they had also stated that miller claims are a good idea, so you decided it was fine to continue agreeing with that part.

Italics: I can't believe I didn't see this before. That is exactly the attitude that lets scum skate by. Just because something doesn't hurt the town 'too much' or 'right now' does not, in any circumstance, mean you ignore it, especially with something like germy's idea, where it is quite clear that while it has no major negative effects (but no real positive effects either) on the town

right now

, there will be a time, in a game day or two, where it can mean the difference between a town win and a scum win.

And your bit about it not mattering if a backup is NKed because they can't do anything yet, that is one of the most antitown statements I have ever read. Killing a townie is

never

a good thing, and suggesting that it's fine to kill a backup power role because they don't have their power yet is like saying that you want to lose all investigative power if the cop dies, or lose all protection power if the doc dies.

Not thinking ahead is a major mistake that scum make, and it leads, more often than not, to them suggesting a scenerio in which the town's chances are severely reduced, and then getting caught for it. I think you made that mistake.

I'm also just

loving

the fact that you turned your vote on me from random OMGUS to full out OMGUS just because I made a case against you. I am about 80% sure you are scum right now.

Confirm vote: afatchic

for revealing even more scummy actions when called out on the first ones.

Nice case against afatic. I got the feeling that he was defending a towny to not look like scum when germy would be lynched. It made me suspicious that he didn't do it with valid reasons. And his not thinking ahead is indeed a major scum tell. He says a backup role isn't that important now, but that role is just as important as a cop or a doc when such a person dies. Every town that is lynched or NK'ed is bad for town, and loosing power roles is even worse, no matter if they are backup roles!

However, my vote is on Edify, and I won't get it off him until he explains his vote. therefore:

FoS afatchic

.

ps nightwolf: I have no problems with that amount off posts, if you keep them this long.

[germy]

As for your reason for not backing up your assumed town section, you are misinterpreting what I'm asking for. I did not ask you to list all of the tells that we left, but rather support your opinions. Stating that "I like his playstyle, it's very logical" does not tell the scum any more than "I think he is town, and I have a reason for that." In fact, it tells them less, because by saying you have a reason you won't state, you are implying that you think they are a power role. Saying that they are logical just says that you like their opinions. I will never ask anyone who they think is a power role. Reading Newbie 588 (Hi Artem) shows why this is an extremely bad idea, because that is what made the mafia win in that game. I will repeat my question: Why do you think those of us you mentioned as town are town, in a general or playstyle related way?

Yes, because "playstyle" is always indicative of affiliation.

Let's say it's some possible combination of "townie tells," a lack of "scum tells," and my personal opinion of appropriate reactions.

In your case, specifically, Kairyuu (as well as Nightwolf), I like how both of your arguments focus on me being either a role-fishing scum or bad-playing townie: not voting for me because I gave the mafia better chances, or for being "anti-town." Our disagreement has tended toward how much I am really helping the Town, how much I'm really mafia, and whether it's actually worth it. The logic is good, but more importantly it seems primarily concerned with protecting the Town, which I like.

---

I would also like to posit another theory. I don't believe we have an SK.

My first post would have been an excellent tactic as a scum-SK. The SK already knows the mafia makeup by virtue of which abilities they have, as well as the number of "T's." An SK would know the town has a certain number of even power roles, and it would be useful for the SK to know if any of them were "dependent roles."

If we had an SK, I would have expected one of two things to happen: 1) to vigorously defend me and continue to agree with the claim, or 2) attack me as a likely SK for suggesting the claims in the first place. Since neither has occurred, I am guessing we have no SK.

[mykonian]

there is one who agreed with you, without giving good reasons. However, he could be scum too.

[ChuckNorris]

If we had an SK, I would have expected one of two things to happen: 1) to vigorously defend me and continue to agree with the claim, or 2) attack me as a likely SK for suggesting the claims in the first place. Since neither has occurred, I am guessing we have no SK.

Unless the SK, assuming we have one, is just watching this subject keeping his/her head down. Or they could be looking for an appropiate NK, ie any kind of role that isn't townie.

[mykonian]

Let's wait till day two before we start to talk about a SK. Then we may know if there actually is one.

[iamausername]

-=Edify has been prodded for the first time=-

[Kairyuu]

@Germy: Ok, the playstyle bit was a stretch, you are right, but I still take it into account when guessing at alignment, because oftentimes a player who hasn't been scum before (or recently) will have some difficulty keeping up a townie persona, and may assume some things to be good ideas that are obviously antitown. So, while playstyle isn't all that important, I believe it is definitely a factor.

As for your SK idea, I agree with you, but I also agree with mykonian. I don't think that we have enough information yet to determine whether or not there is a serial killer. We will have much more information regarding that on D2 than just the way you think one would respond to your post.

Consider a newbie SK, or even one who didn't spend all that much time thinking about the setup. They probably would not figure out how much info the knowledge of backup roles would give him, and may not have reacted like you expected. Also, I will state again, knowing the setup helps no one but the scum at this point. So the SK knows how many power roles he is looking at. So what? If he has any sense he will be looking for the scum right now anyway so that he can look good to the town.

Your obsession with the setup is not at all helpful to the town. This information becomes much more useful to the town in later days when we have the results of a few deaths and night actions, but until then only the scum really want to know what they are facing on the town side, because then they can prioritize their kills better. I cannot believe that you haven't figured that out yet.

[mykonian]

still waiting for sakinj to post something interesting, so I can react with something interesting. I think I have made up my mind about germy's posts now, and I have told what actions of what persons I don't like, but that is everything.

[CF Riot]

I'm going to throw out the idea that if no one has claimed miller by the end of page 5, we don't have any. I don't know if 100% of the town is pro-miller claim, but I've yet to see anyone against it. The one useful thing about miller claims is it separates false investigations from real ones, so for a pro-town miller (which is all millers I guess) there is no reason to "hide" the fact that they are one. I think any miller claims after page 5 can be considered lies, with reasonable exceptions. Ex: "I hadn't posted since page 2, I didn't know!"

[mykonian]

*really, really wants a miller claim*

otherwise our chances for a cop are small...

*imagines a town full off mafia, rb's and vig's*

brrr

[ChuckNorris]

As for your SK idea, I agree with you, but I also agree with mykonian. I don't think that we have enough information yet to determine whether or not there is a serial killer. We will have much more information regarding that on D2 than just the way you think one would respond to your post.

Mykonian also said about this, but I was just replying to a flaw in Germy's post.

Consider a newbie SK, or even one who didn't spend all that much time thinking about the setup. They probably would not figure out how much info the knowledge of backup roles would give him, and may not have reacted like you expected. Also, I will state again, knowing the setup helps no one but the scum at this point. So the SK knows how many power roles he is looking at. So what? If he has any sense he will be looking for the scum right now anyway so that he can look good to the town.

I don't really agree with this. Tbh, I don't think that the SK killing scum, will make anyone look that townie. If someone claimed they did it, it would be quite a big giveaway.

[Artem]

@Kairyuu: I was not nitpicking to the extreme or calling you out on the things we've already covered. I was explaining to you the thought process that went behind my vote.

There are a few thing though:

1.

First, the scum always have "12 (minus lynch and scum members)" to choose from during Night 1 so that statement says nothing.

Of course it says nothing. I said

instead of

, implying that that situation was the norm, and that germy had changed that in a way that affected the scum's choices.

There is no instead of. We should not assume that the scum will or will not night kill somebody because all it does is lead to WIFOM. In this particular case, we don't know if Germy is scum and if we start to assume that he will not be a night kill target because of his claim, then we're effectively getting into a mindset where it's ok for Germy-scum to survive each night. (I'm using <player name>-scum and <player name>-townie to differentiate between different scenarios.)

Same thing goes for Mykonian's

I don´t want germy to react on the following, but from what I guess, it isn´t the smartest move to NK germy.

because as somebody mentioned, the scum might want to eliminate a "confirmed" townie, especially now that the sentiment seems to be shifting towards Germy being town.

2.

It irks me when people say that I'm taking things out of context just because I quote a single sentence.

Second, where does 4/7 come from?

Look at the words

right before that

. You know, where i said "according to you (in reference to germy)." Don't take my words out of context. And besides, I already explained that I had misinterpreted what germy had been talking about right there (I thought he meant 4 full power roles when he meant 4 roles including backups), so the point is moot either way.

I saw the words right before that. You said that "According to you (germy), there are approximately 4 full power roles and 3 vanillas". But just because somebody gives you two numbers, doesn't mean you should mash them together and call that a probability, but apparently you're saying that it's what you were doing.

I agree. We've already covered the fact that the numbers are off/misunderstood, but don't say that I'm taking it out of context, when I'm not.

Same thing goes for afatchic's:

artem- not really good at quoting just one sentence out of a huge post like that, but this is for the last 2 paragraphs.
i just assumed that there are atleast three scum for a few reasons. first i think i saw it come out of one of germy's posts after all his math.
but second i think the only way it would be anything less, would be if it was a 2-10 setup. which if germy was scum, he would know that there are no PR and would not have any reason to fish for PR's, which makes me think if he is scum there are atleast three, or that he is a backup PR townie and he is really trying to help.
so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

Why can't I quote one sentence? More specifically, why can't I quote the one sentence that caught my eyes as being suspicious? I understand the point you were making in the rest of your post but I was specifically asking you about where you got 1/4th from. Of course, I gave you the answer and you diligently repeated that back to me.

If you need to have everything spelled out for you so that you can make absolutely sure of what people mean, then you should not be jumping to conclusions about what I said because you misread it, but giving afatchic the benefit of the doubt for what he did. That is a bit hypocritical. FOS: Artem

How am I giving afatchic the benefit of the doubt? All I've done so far is quizzed him about his statement that scum know 1/4th of the roles. What thin air do you pull that stuff out of?

FoS: Kairyuu

But speaking of afatchic... From the start, he appears to believe Germy's claim unquestionably:

okay i like the first post my germy.

i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already. and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.

i just assumed that there are atleast three scum for a few reasons.

first i think i saw it come out of one of germy's posts after all his math.

but second i think the only way it would be anything less, would be if it was a 2-10 setup. which if germy was scum, he would know that there are no PR and would not have any reason to fish for PR's, which makes me think if he is scum there are atleast three, or that he is a backup PR townie and he is really trying to help.
so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

Both bolded parts assume that Germy is town. (Granted, he also speculates about the 2-10 setup and germy being mafia, but then I don't understand the need to be believing germy's math). I think afatchic knew there were 3 mafia from the start and I think that at least one of the people who are saying that Germy is not going to be NK'd could easily be scum who's either already made up their mind about not killing Germy or trying to pre-emptively give a reason for their buddy Germy surviving the night. I also don't like how afatchic is repeating everybody's arguments, trying to appear consistent with what everybody else is thinking.

With that,

Vote: afatchic

I think that if afatchic flips scum, then it's a good indication that Germy is town.

[Artem]

Oh, and as far as the miller claims go..... from what I understand, we either have 3 millers or no millers. So the fact that nobody claimed miller at this point is probably a good indication that we have none.

[springlullaby]

Right, I'm not particularly enjoying the new turn of the discussion and wouldn't be unhappy if you guys would just leave the setup alone. It's no fun and I think scum have brains too.

Germy, I still think you're most probably town, but you're starting to push it.
What's the point of hunting for scum reaction when you make evident what you are doing?

I dislike mykonian's last post a lot, I don't see any point in it. Myko, would you care to explain what purpose it served?

I'd like to see more from afatchic and all people who have no vote placed on someone.

[CF Riot]

Tbh, I don't think that the SK killing scum, will make anyone look that townie. If someone claimed they did it, it would be quite a big giveaway.

He means during the day. The SK should be trying to scum hunt and kill mafia during the day, to appear pro-town. He does not mean the SK should try to target mafia at night to appear pro-town.

Oh, and as far as the miller claims go..... from what I understand, we either have 3 millers or no millers. So the fact that nobody claimed miller at this point is probably a good indication that we have none.

I will be running the setup exactly as shown here, with one exception:

in the event of a setup generated with a single C, there will be a randomly generated number of millers between one and three, rather than a definite three as originally proposed

.

[mykonian]

I dislike mykonian's last post a lot, I don't see any point in it. Myko, would you care to explain what purpose it served?

ahh, someone abbreviating my name the right way! I can see why you didn't like my last post, because it kind of said nothing. I did the maths, from that I deduced that our chance at having a cop would be low. Having a miller would give the certainty of a cop.

remind, and I hope that is the last thing I say about the setup, that this setup doesn't need to be fair. most times it will be, but a town full of roleblockers and vigs would be fairly weak against a full mafia and maybe a SK.

My problem was that I wanted to post something, but didn't know what too. To answer your question directly: it serves little purpose, if it did, it was to tell you about my fear that there is no cop.

The case against afatchic is looking better and better, but I don't know what I can say more then I said about it. I hope Edify will come, but if he is replaced my vote will go to afatchic.

[mykonian]

Let's see, the case against afatchic. Then it seems I actually did something, and it may clear up something.

post 35: likes germy's claim, says germy wouldn't be a good NK, following me in that. He also thinks millers should claim, and also likes random voting. this post is typical, because 3 out of 5 sentences have the word also in the start, and the first agrees with germy. Afatchic has little thoughts of himself...

post 44: still likes germys claim, still thinks millers should claim, doesn't like people attacking germy. says it doesn't matter if germy gets NK, backup is plain vanilla till the real power role dies.

post 64: still likes germys claim, defends against accusation that he was just latching on and backing off when germy went under fire. Doesn't like how he is called a good lynch.

post 70: defends against the accusation that he knows how many scum there are. says to artem:

so yeah i think you had the same thought process that i went through.

also he didn't remove his random vote, whether that had to do that the random vote was on the person that made a case against him, or not, I don't know, but I see my greatest suspect. He is too much defending a towny, for little reason: (he defends a likely bad play), he is looking a lot for buddys, and has no real opinion apart from defending germy and defending himself.

confirm FoS afatchic

. As soon as I know that Edify can't give me any answer, or gives me a reasonable answer, I'm going to vote afatchic.

[ChuckNorris]

Tbh, I don't think that the SK killing scum, will make anyone look that townie. If someone claimed they did it, it would be quite a big giveaway.

He means during the day. The SK should be trying to scum hunt and kill mafia during the day, to appear pro-town. He does not mean the SK should try to target mafia at night to appear pro-town.

Ah I see. Whoops. Anyway I'm off to bed now...very tired. I'll try and write tomorrow, can't finalise anything, but I'll try.

[Kairyuu]

@Artem: Do you actually read what I write before you make your misguided assumptions? It really doesn't seem like you do.

There is no instead of. We should not assume that the scum will or will not night kill somebody because all it does is lead to WIFOM.

In this particular case, we don't know if Germy is scum and if we start to assume that he will not be a night kill target because of his claim, then we're effectively getting into a mindset where it's ok for Germy-scum to survive each night.

(I'm using <player name>-scum and <player name>-townie to differentiate between different scenarios.)

Bolded: Please point out when I said

anything

about that.

Please try to comprehend this, as I'm making it as simple as possible. In any 12 person game with 3 scum the situation is that the scum have 12 players, minus 3 scum, minus 1 lynch, townies to choose from for a NK. If germy is scum, and he successfully gets even 1 townie to claim like he did then that gives the scum options. They can choose to kill the one who claimed, and guarentee that they hit a power role, even if it is a backup, or they can Go after one of the remaining townies, with

improved odds to hit a power role

. If germy is town, then the scum are

already in that position

with the chance to improve it if someone else claims too.

Either way, germy's claim

changes the way the scum will treat the NK

.Germy's alignment and whether or not he gets NKed has

nothing to do with it

except to determine whether or not someone else needs to follow his advice.

I saw the words right before that. You said that "According to you (germy), there are approximately 4 full power roles and 3 vanillas".

But just because somebody gives you two numbers, doesn't mean you should mash them together and call that a probability,

but apparently you're saying that it's what you were doing.

Bolded: When the numbers that are given refer to a probability, then yes, you should treat them as one. What I had (mis)read from germy 's first post was that if one more person claimed as he did then there would be 4 full power roles, 2 dependant power roles, 3 vanillas, and 3 scum. That adds up to 12. If the scum ignore the dependants (and themselves of course), and attack the unknowns, then they would be choosing from 7 players (there's the denominator), of which 4 would be power roles (and there's the numerator). That gives us the 4/7 probability that I mentioned. Which means that if the scum decided to choose their kill from the unknowns, they would have a 4/7 chance to hit a power role. Is that difficult to understand? No.

Again though, it doesn't matter, because it was a case of my misreading what germy said. Those numbers mean nothing at this point.

How am I giving afatchic the benefit of the doubt? All I've done so far is quizzed him about his statement that scum know 1/4th of the roles. What thin air do you pull that stuff out of?

This is where you give him the benefit of the doubt (same post where you call me out on my numbers):

After thinking about it, I agree that it makes sense

for there to be 3 scum, because either Germy is a townie and is telling the truth or if he was scum, he wouldn't be fishing for back-up roles knowing there were only two mafia (which would mean the setup doesn't have back-up roles).

See it now?

I think that if afatchic flips scum, then it's a good indication that Germy is town.

Funny that you are saying this now when I've been saying it since post 62, 3 days ago.

@afatchic: Still waiting on your defense. I pointed out where you did exactly what you denied doing, and I have yet to see your response to it. Plus there are several others who are looking at you as scum too. I'm still happy with my vote. Die scum die.

[iamausername]

-=Edify has failed to respond to prod. Now seeking a replacement.=-

[sekinj]

My reads so far:

afatchic

– has made 4 posts. I DO NOT believe he is scum from those posts. I’d like to see a lot more from him to get a read. Yes, he seems wishy-washy, and indecisive, but such does not equal scum. Kair’s attack happened after only two of those posts and I believe is a big misrep. Read afatchic in isolation and see if that screams scum. However, I think it would benefit everyone to hear afatchic’s defense.

alvinz95

– more posting needed. STAT.

Artem

– lots of setup discussion. Had good discussion with kair. Seemed to jump on the afat wagon too quickly, maybe to appease Kair for mis-reading his post earlier?

CF Riot

– seems reasonable. However, he has not made any accusations directly against anyone. Most of his posts consist of questions to others, replying to questions, observations, or speculation about the setup. I’d like to see more regarding his opinions about other players.

ChuckNorris

– seems just as wishy-washy as afatchic, just more involved. He thought germy was scum, and then he didn’t. thinks germy is still dangerous, but pro-town. His post in isolation #6 actually make me think that maybe HE is the SK.

Edify

– I think germy’s reasoning was bad on this one. Edify does look scummy, but it is because his post is trying WAY too hard to be random when we’ve already hopped over the random stage. I’d like to see what path his replacement takes. I don’t see any connection at all between him and myko.

germy

- I agree with germy's tactic for the most part, and I also believe he is town. Even if his tactic for starting a game was considered by others to be anti-town and giving info to scum, I believe in the power of information. Giving more info to the town is beneficial. I think he will be a big help to the town, and in fact already has been by boosting discussion tremendously while we are only on P4. Many of the initial votes on Germy I felt were more “That is SO anti-town and you should be punished for it” rather than “you are scum and giving information is a big scumtell”.

Kairyuu

– aggressive, but rash. Cannot stand to be wrong. Even the smallest mistake pointed out by others frustrates him. However, he

frequently

misrepresents others in his cases. He reminds me of a bulldozer. Everyone just wants to get out of his way. This makes it really hard to back him down once he has decided who is scum.

mykonian

– pro-town, however, I’d like to see him take more of a stand. He has been a bit too agreeable with everyone. Even after germy said he was 1 of 3 scum, myko’s response was “yeah, I agree on the other two, but I don’t think I am scum, really…”

Nightwolf

– his posts make me tired. Good content, just long. I think he has a legitimate discussion going, but I disagree. germy has helped the town by generating discussion and providing information. Those are simple items, but I think they will end up being the key to a town win.

sekinj

– Me! I’m town!

springlullaby

– In her post in isolation #3 she says the vote on me

isn’t quite

a random vote. That means it wasn’t completely serious. Why did she keep going after me? Was she unsure when he placed her vote whether it was random or not? And still in Post #7 she says, “I didn’t like it, and didn’t like the post about ignoring me.” - So I think she was throwing a hissy fit because she didn’t like how I reacted to her vote. All in all I see way too many appeals to emotion, and reasoning based only on emotion rather than real substance.

I am suspicious of: CF Riot for not rocking the boat, Artem for being swayed too easily. The jury is out on al and edify.

[Kairyuu]

@sekinj: I agree wholeheartledly that I am agressive; but rash? Seriously? Also, where have I gotten frusterated when someone pointed out a mistake I made. The only one that someone pointed out to me was the numbers I misinterpreted from germy's first post, and I had no problem with it. If you are referring to the times when Artem 'pointed out my mistakes' then you really need to look them over again. Artem has attacked me for things that

he

misinterpreted repeatedly.

And where exactly do I misrepresent people in my posts at all, let alone frequently? If you are going to accuse me of something, then you had better be prepared to back that up with evidence.

[springlullaby]

Sekinj, who would you like to vote for?